Playboy's Pro Football Preview

Pro Football's second most exciting annual event occurs during the first week of May. The college draft was once held in late January but was moved back because of the league's collective-bar-gaining agreement with the players' union, to give players who had played out their options more time to seek employment with other teams. The later date also serves to revive flagging fan interest halfway between the Super Bowl and the pre-season skirmishes of August and provides less haggling time for the agents of choice draftees. The draft is, for both participants and observes, a combination of a commodities exchange in full blast and a Pentagon war room. The future of franchises and the careers of coaches hang on the decisions made during those two frantic days.

The number of available choice players varies widely from year to year; the '78 crop was an unusually lean one, but this past May, the smorgasbord of speed, skill and beef provided goodies for nearly every club.

As usual, most fans--and many sports-writers--were puzzled by some of the teams' choices. The explanation is that pro scouting and player evaluation is a much more thorough and sophisticated business than most outsiders realize. Touchdowns scored, tackles made, passes caught, fleetness, heft and strength are but some of the characteristics pondered by the talent buyers.

Player evaluation has become a systematic science largely through some innovative concepts developed by Gil Brandt, vice-president of the Dallas Cowboys. When Brandt took over the Cowboys' personnel department in 1960, he learned that one of the many enterprises belonging to zillionaire owner Clint Murchison, Jr., was a computer data-processing company. Brandt decided to use its facilities to check out something he had long suspected: that even the seemingly most irrelevant characteristics may be vital keys to an athlete's potential and that the relative importance of those characteristics might vary greatly among players at different positions. Researchers were put to work tabulating dozens of the personal characteristics and physical measurements of hundreds of players. When the relative athletic excellence of the players had been established by their performances on the field, all the information was fed into computers. Over a period of years, there emerged specific (but often complex) patterns of the ideal characteristics of players at each position. Some were surprising: The circumference of a defensive tackle's ankle is quite important; an offensive lineman under six feet tall has a tough time making any pro squad; intelligence is vitally important among quarterbacks and offensive linemen, an indifferent quality at other positions, a moderate liability at still others.

By now, all franchises have developed their own more or less sophisticated evaluation technologies. There have even been reports of some cloak-and-data-sheet cases of business-intelligence theft among the competing scouting departments.

So this past May, if a player from your favorite college team was drafted in a much lower or higher round of the draft than you had expected, it may have been for reasons that never would have occurred to you. A tendency to be a complainer is a definite liability for a pro prospect. So is being under contract to a disputatious player agent. Membership in a freaky religious cult is a red flag, but active membership in an established religion is a big plus. Marital problems, inability to handle personal finances and bizarre sexual tastes are bad news. One of the biggest pluses of all is a high score, on the personality trait the scouts call emotional maturity.

According to the experts, there were many players this year who scored very favorably on all the electronic yardsticks. Which means there may be more rookies creating more excitement and making bigger splashes than in any season in memory. So let's take a look at the teams and see how the coming season shapes up.

Not since Joe Namath pulled the floundering Jets into the Super Bowl in 1968 has a quarterback galvanized a team as Bert Jones has the Baltimore Colts. When Jones is out of the game with injuries--as he was most of last season--the Colts are listless and bumbling. When he's running the show, they are capable of beating anyone. Even the defense plays much better when Jones is healthy.

Last year's disappointing 5--11 record was not entirely attributable to Jones's ailments. Both offensive tackles, George Kunz and David Taylor, were also wiped out. One of the few bright spots was the running of Joe Washington, who gives the Colts their first breakaway ball carrier since Lenny Moore. Obviously, if Jones and most of his teammates can stay reasonably healthy this fall, Baltimore has an excellent chance to make the playoffs. That would be an appropriate continuation of the Colts' giddy performance in recent seasons: They finished last in their division in '74, first the next three years and then last again in '78.

The credit for the Miami Dolphins' continuing success belongs mostly to coach Don Shula. Old Lantern Jaw, as his more courageous friends call him, is becoming a latter-day Vince Lombardi. Having once served on his staff is the best of all possible credentials for a young coach applying for a head-coaching job with another franchise. There is good reason for all this awe and respect: Shula has a 73 percent winning record over a 16-year period at Baltimore and Miami.

His percentage could be even better after this season. The Dolphin squad has no apparent weaknesses and at least one area, the defensive line (featuring third-year starters A.J. Duhe and Bob Baum-hower), should be even stronger with the added maturity.

Quarterback Bob Griese and runner Delvin Williams get most of the laurels from press and fans, but the principal on-field ingredient of the Dolphins' success is the offensive line. Three of its members, Larry Little, Bob Kuechenberg and Jim Langer, reap most post-season honors nearly every year. They will be reinforced this season by two prime rookies, Jon Giesler and Jeff Toews.

No one could be happier about the blocking crew than prodigal son Larry Csonka, who has returned to Miami after several years of wasting his substance in not-so-riotous living with the World Football League and the New York Giants. Zonk is a heavy sentimental favorite with Dolphin fans, who are cheering for him to make a big comeback. If he does return to his old form (he spent most of the off season getting into shape), he, Williams, Gary Davis and rookie Tony Nathan will give the Dolphins a fearsome running attack.

Keep an eye on the New York Jets. They look like a team on the verge of making it big. After three consecutive 3--11 seasons, they had a break-even record last fall with probably the youngest squad in N.F.L. history. The Jets' average age was 24 and their average pro experience was just 1.6 years. Most of the credit for the Jets' turnaround goes to head coach Walt Michaels, an efficient organizer and a shrewd judge of talent.

The Jets will continue to be a spectacular offensive team (they scored 359 points last year, topped only by Dallas and Miami), especially if Richard Todd, who was injured most of last year, can regain the starting quarterback job. His primary target will again be Wesley Walker, perhaps the top game breaker in the league. Walker had eight touchdown catches last year--averaging 52 yards.

Although the Jets have a pleasing predilection for making the big play when they need it most, Michaels will try to develop some consistency and ball control for this season. He will also need to shore up a flaccid defense that gave up more points last fall than any defense in the country except Baltimore's.

The Jets have had a crowd of rookies each of the past three years, but with all that good young talent in camp, it will be very tough for more than a few of this year's draftees to make the squad. Best chances belong to defensive linemen Marty Lyons and Mark Gastineau.

As pre-season drills begin, the New England Patriots are in the most tenuous situation of any team in the country. Everything seems to depend on whether or not new coach Ron Erhardt can pull the squad back together and heal the emotional wounds left behind by the messy departure of coach Chuck Fairbanks. Erhardt has the requisite qualities. Although he's a hard driver, he knows how to use humor to ease a tense situation; more outgoing than Fairbanks, he should be much closer to his players.

Erhardt inherits a good stock of playing talent. The Patriots broke many of their own all-time offensive records last season. Runners Andy Johnson and Horace Ivory don't get the publicity that is showered on runner Sam Cunningham, but they furnish much offensive punch.

The Patriots' major need is some reinforcements for the defensive unit. Few of the team's high draft choices in recent years have been defenders, but this year it was different. Three promising rookies, defensive back Rick Sanford and linebackers Bob Golic and John Zamberlin, will provide immediate help.

In only a year, head coach Chuck Knox has made impressive progress in turning around the floundering Buffalo franchise. Although the Bills won only five games in '78, they were closer than most people think to being a winner--seven losses were decided by a touchdown or less.

Knox's job off the field has been even more impressive. He has beefed up a sorry scouting department, joined the Dallas, Seattle and San Francisco clubs in a scouting combine and pulled off some shrewd trades. The most celebrated off the trades (and maybe the smartest trade any team ever made) was sending an aging O. J. Simpson to San Francisco for a bundle of draft choices. The timing of that trade was perfect; the Bills had nine picks in the first five rounds this past May and came away with several quality rookies, mostly defensive types, who could become first-year starters. Linebacker Tom Cousineau, defensive tackle Fred Smerlas and wide receiver Jerry Butler are good enough to win all-pro honors their first season.

The defensive reinforcements will be heartily welcomed, because the Bills were woefully vulnerable to the run last season (their pass defense looked good because nobody threw against them).

Butler will be the speedy wide receiver so badly needed to give balance to an offense that features the sometimes spectacular running of Terry Miller. Look for Miller to bloom into one of the premier runners in the country this season.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are now in the same position Dallas was for many years--they are recognized by almost everyone as the top team in the country (that, of course, could be dangerous, there being a normal tendency to lay back and enjoy the glory). The depth of quality on the Steeler squad is awesome--there is no apparent weakness anywhere. Almost every starting position is held by a player of all-pro caliber.

The Pittsburgh players have more than sheer athletic ability. They share an attitude that may be unmatched on any other team. Defensive lineman Joe Greene, linebacker Jack Lambert and safety Donnie Shell are among the most emotionally intense players in the country; their leadership galvanizes the defense.

Perhaps the principal key to the Steelers' emergence in recent seasons has been the growing maturity--both as a leader and as a player--of quarterback Terry Bradshaw, who is now in his tenth year in the pros and is just reaching the peak of his ability. Bradshaw is also fortunate enough to have a stable of phenomenal receivers. Lynn Swann, John Stallworth, Randy Grossman and Bennie Cunningham are the best crew of pass catchers in the country.

The Steelers have made the play-offs seven straight years, and there is little doubt this will be (he eighth. A return to the Super Bowl is also a high probability, and they'll likely do it as they did last year, with a gutsy defense and a devastating passing attack.

There is a heady optimism in Houston. The Oilers made the play-offs last fall for the first time since the two pro leagues merged, and the fans, players and front-office types are brimming with confidence. Many people felt that the Oilers' 10--4 showing during coach Bum Phillips' first year ('75) was a fluke, that they merely sneaked up on several superior teams. But last fall, the Houston squad proved it could play head to head with the best teams in the league. Main reasons for the emergence (other than the cagey coaching of Phillips) are the emergence of Dan Pastorini as one of the league's more respected quarterbacks and the immediate and immense contributions of Earl Campbell to the running game. Campbell is one of the few runners in history who could have gone from high school into the pros and made it big.

All that means that the Houston defensive crew, strong for the past several years, is at last getting some impressive help from the attackers. If there is a cloud on the horizon, it is that aging may soon become a problem in the defensive line. Elvin Bethea and Curley Gulp will both be 33 years old this season. Rookie defensive linemen Mike Stensrud and Jesse Baker will be welcome reinforcements.

Another potential problem could be the morale of the Oiler coaching staff, a situation created by owner Bud Adams, Jr. He's notoriously tightfisted. Other owners traditionally give their coaching staffs sizable Christmas bonuses. Pittsburgh owner Art Rooney, for example, gave his coaches $7500 each last December. Adams, however, hit upon a real original plan for spreading holiday cheer among his coaching staff: He gave them each a choice of a turkey or a ham.

The Cincinnati Bengals will try to avoid repeating as the nose-dive team of the year. Last fall's collapse--they won only four games--was principally caused by quarterback Ken Anderson's broken hand. Backup passer John Reaves simply can't match Anderson's ability (which explains why the Bengals stunned everyone by picking superslinger Jack Thompson in the first round of the draft). The brightest omen for this season is that when Anderson finally recovered his full ability at season's end, the Bengals perked up impressively and won their last two games. Other hopeful signs are the emergence of fullback Pete Johnson and the immense potential of defensive end Ross Browner, who came back from an early-season injury to be the team's most valuable player at the end of his rookie year. Head coach Homer Rice has also helped prospects considerably by switching from a three- to a four-man defensive line.

The Bengals' poor finish in '78 resulted in a favorable position in the draft, fortunately, thus enabling them not only to grab quarterback Jack Thompson but to fill other needs for a top-flight runner (Charles Alexander) and another tight end (Dan Ross).

"Our main problem," says director of player personnel Pete Brown, "is being in the same division with Pittsburgh and Houston. We have to try to stop Franco Harris one week and Earl Campbell the next. That's no great joy."

When the Cleveland Browns released their highlights film at the end of last season, they aptly titled it The Roller-Coaster Ride. The entire autumn was a series of giddy highs and depressing lows, with a final break-even record. The defenders held off the enemy during the first part of the season while the offense was getting its act together. Then, when the attack jelled, the defense fell apart. Now, after a full year under the tutelage of Sam Rutigliano, the shakedown period is over and the Browns enter pre-season drills with a new feeling of confidence. The squad's major assets are quarterback Brian Sipe ("He's a brainy kid," a front-office denizen told us. "It's almost like having another coach on the field."), three sterling wide receivers--Reggie Rucker, Ozzie Newsome and Dave Logan--and the running of Greg Pruitt. The offensive line is a good one, too, so the Browns should have no trouble lighting up the Scoreboard. The main problem is the nearly nonexistent pass rush, which, it's hoped, will be reinforced by draftees James Raney and Rich Dimler.

Under head coach Red Miller, Denver has become one of the most stable franchises in the league. But, having won their division championship two years in a row, the Broncos must guard against complacency. There are no serious weaknesses anywhere on the squad, though the punting and place kicking could stand improvement and the offensive line suffers from too much youth and too little depth. The latter problem may be solved if some nuggets are found among a group of free agents signed during the off season. The former problems should be solved by two draftees, punter Luke Prestridge and kicker Dave Jacobs.

The Broncos will again have one of the two or three best defensive units in the country. Only Pittsburgh yielded fewer points last season. The rapid development of last year's number-one draft choice, nose tackle Don Latimer, will probably enable Miller to use a four-man front. Add a ferocious linebacking crew, led by Randy Gradishar, the squad's best player, and there could be a few shutouts this fall.

If Denver falters, the San Diego team is in a prime position to usurp the laurels. To many knowledgeable observers, the Chargers appear to be a team whose time has come. Although they posted a merely respectable 9-7 record last season, the Chargers won seven of their last eight games after new coach Don Coryell took over in midseason. Coryell wisely hasn't made any major changes, but he has offered the players a warm central personality to rally around--something previous coach Tommy Prothro couldn't provide.

The Charger squad is a much better collection of ability than most fans realize: There are good backup players in most areas and the squad has a number of promising youngsters who will improve. Quarterback Dan Fouts has emerged as one of the top half-dozen quarterbacks in the league and John Jefferson, with only a year's experience, is one of the country's premier receivers.

One of Coryell's priorities in summer camp will be to fix an erratic running attack. Don Woods, if he can regain the impressive form of his rookie year in 1974, could provide the answer. Coryell is also looking for a blazing outside runner who can catch the ball, à la Joe Washington, who went to Baltimore.

The Oakland Raiders will be an unknown quantity until the season gets under way, if for no other reason than the absence of coach John Madden. New mentor Tom Flores will be much less obviously emotional on the side lines than Madden, but his credentials for the job are impeccable. As Madden's assistant, Flores was largely responsible in recent years for the Raiders' passing offense, which most other teams feared and many tried to imitate.

Flores inherits a squad that has much less promise than the Oakland Super Bowl squad of three years ago. The once-peerless passing attack (except for tight end Dave Casper) has inexplicably lost much of its former potency. The defensive unit no longer terrorizes enemy offenses, though the linebacking crew, led by Ted Hendricks, is still one of the nation's best.

The Raiders' major asset this. season could be the running of Mark van (continued on page 180) Pro Football(continued from page 166) Eeghen. Much depends on the performance of an aging offensive line. Tackle Art Shell and guard Gene Upshaw were once the best pair of blockers in the country, but they are now 32 and 34 years old, respectively, and some of their youthful vigor has departed.

The Raiders had only a second-round pick in the first four rounds of the recent draft, so don't look for many new faces on the squad this fall.

The Seattle Seahawks posted a 9-7 record their third season. Not since the Cincinnati Bengals won eight games their third year has an expansion franchise succeeded so quickly. The Seahawks are now a stable, mature organization that also has the vitality of a young and enthusiastic club. Much of the reason for their success is attributable to their systematic way of building through the draft and developing their own players and team leaders.

The Seahawks have also enjoyed a lot of good luck in their personnel search, the best example being southpaw quarterback Jim Zorn, who was obtained as a free agent after failing to make it with both the Dallas and the Los Angeles teams. Zorn looks to us like the Fran Tarkenton of the future. He reads defenses well, has a strong arm, is mobile and has plenty of smarts. He is the fulcrum of an excellent and exciting offensive unit, constructed principally by offensive coordinator Jerry Rhome, who appears to be the country's leading candidate for the next head-coaching vacancy.

Another major asset could be the place kicking of Efren Herrera, if he can regain the form he had when he was with the Dallas Cowboys.

Coach Jack Patera will spend much of the preseason trying to strengthen an inconsistent pass rush. Most of last year's defensive linemen were second-stringers before going to Seattle. The rookie crop could provide the needed help in the persons of defensive tackle Manu Tuiasosopo and linebackers Joe Norman and Michael Jackson.

Coach Marv Levy is beginning to turn around the fortunes of the Kansas City team, but fans shouldn't harbor great expectations for this year--there's still a long way to go. The Chiefs won four games last fall, double the production of the previous season, and they did it with a squad composed largely of callow youths. Twenty-three of the 45 squad-men had three years or less experience. Thirteen were rookies. The Chiefs may be even younger this time, because a favorable position in the draft produced an impressive group of rookies.

Much of the Chiefs' hope for success lies in a strong wing-T running attack, featuring Tony Reed, Ted McKniglu and Arnold Morgado. Last fall, Reed was the first Kansas City runner to gain 1000 yards in a season since Mike Garrett in the glory days of the mid-Sixties.

Levy's principal concern is an unstable quarterback situation. Mike Livingston is the only returning passer with any experience, but he could be challenged in summer camp by any of a group of free agents or rookies. Pete Woods, who sat out his first year with a knee injury, could also take the job.

The team's most dramatic improvement this year will likely be in the play of the defensive line, which was made up last fall of three rookies, led by future great Art Still. They will be joined this fall by yet another superrookie, Mike Bell.

Those few glimmers of hope are the source of much comfort to the long-suffering Kansas City fans, who had been making mutinous noises the past few years. Best sign of all is that season-ticket sales are up.

As usual, there will be few obvious changes in the Dallas team. The Cowboys' only apparent need going into the draft was a top-quality cornerback, and chances are good they will find him among their usual collection of obscure draftees and even lesser-known free-agent signees.

Like other perennially successful franchises, the Cowboys enjoy an important psychological edge over some of their less successful opponents; when players know they are on a team that can win, there is little danger of squad dissension. There is also less owner-coach acrimony and fan discontent.

Look for the Cowboys to again get off to a relatively slow start, then look unbeatable the last half of the season. Runner Tony Dorsett, just coming into his prime, will again furnish most of the offensive excitement. Coach Tom Landry's new fascination with trick plays, which cost his team dearly on a couple of occasions last year, will probably be suppressed this fall.

Few fans outside Dallas understand how valuable Roger Staubach is to the Cowboys. There may be better quarterbacks in the league, but not many. His icy cool and mechanical perfection are the key ingredients of the Dallas offense. A less obvious but equally valuable commodity is Danny White, probably the best backup quarterback in the country. He also doubles as punter, effectively giving the Cowboys room for an extra player on the squad.

The St. Louis and Washington teams were mirror images of each other last season. The Redskins seemed indomitable in the early weeks, winning their first six games, but then took a shocking nose dive, losing eight of their last ten. The Cardinals, conversely, opened I he first half of their season looking like the Mudville Gophers, but then effected a nearly miraculous turnaround, winning six of their last eight games.

The Washington collapse was mostly due to small things--goofy ball bounces and some freaky officiating--but the players began to feel they were snake-bitten, and morale suffered.

The Redskins are still a basically sound team, the major liability being a dearth of quality backup players--a legacy that comes from years of trading away draft choices for experienced players.

The Redskins' major need is quality depth in the offensive line--a situation that could be solved by more trades before the regular season. General manager Bobby Beathard has notified other franchises that every player on his squad is available, if the price is right.

There will be one major difference in the Redskins' bargaining posture, however: Unlike the past, no draft choices will be given up: the Redskins will have their full complement of picks in 1980. It's about time--they haven't had a first-round choice since 1969.

The Redskins' defensive secondary, featuring Ken Houston, Jake Scott, Lemar Parrish and Joe Lavender, should again be the best anywhere, and the special teams are still the talk of the league. If the depth of both lines can be reinforced, the Redskins could once again challenge Dallas for the division title.

The St. Louis Cardinals' sudden mid-season revival was an overwhelming emotional experience for the players, and they enter this season bouncing off the ceiling. The Cards' hustling defensive unit improved tremendously toward the end of last season, when it abandoned the wait-and-read approach for a hell-for-leather attack style. Perhaps their biggest plus is the personality and expertise of coach Bud Wilkinson. He comes on as a pleasant, mellow, gregarious, literate, cultured fellow; but he has deceptive inner toughness, knows what he wants and lets his players know he expects it.

Wilkinson still needs to upgrade the kicking game and find a runner who can provide an outside threat to take the heat off premier passer Jim Hart. The latter problem was almost certainly solved by the draft, which brought prime runners Ottis Anderson and Theotis Brown.

The New York Giants have the largest and most vociferous following of any perennially losing team in the country. In the agony of their frustration, those fans hire airplanes to skywrite their discontent over the crowded stadium, hold ticket-burning ceremonies and mail rotting fish heads to the front office. "They're entitled to squawk," says the Giants' PR man. "Besides, it shows they're emotionally involved."

But hope springs eternal in the breasts of Giant fans, and this past spring, they were again standing in long lines to buy season tickets and speaking hopefully about the possibilities of a 12--4 season.

And, indeed, there is hope. This could be the best year for the Giants since the early Seventies. Main reasons for tile optimism are the arrivals of new general manager George Young and new head coach Ray Perkins. Young, a workaholic with two masters degrees, is one of the nation's best judges of player personnel--an ability sorely needed by the Giants. Perkins established a reputation as an offensive genius while an assistant coach at San Diego. They inherit a Giant squad with many young but promising players who need only motivation and direction to reach their potential.

Perkins and his staff are skilled teachers, and their main problem in summer drills will be to give a crash course to the quarterbacks. All three have been playing the past two years virtually without benefit of a quarterback coach. Passer Joe Pisarcik says he learned more during an hour's conversation with former pro Len Dawson at the bar at Manny's than he had learned from his coaches.

The Giants' major asset is their defense. The entire unit has played well the past two years. Also, they have drafted several promising offensive linemen in recent years who should now be maturing into dependable players.

The Philadelphia Eagles made it to the play-offs last December by getting more performance out of the least talent of any team in the country. They had only three first- or second-round draft choices on the entire squad. Most of the credit goes to head coach Dick Vermeil, who looks like Audie Murphy but coaches like John Wayne.

The Eagles' major assets are the quarterbacking of Ron Jaworski, the play of middle linebacker Bill Bergey (who will be joined this year by superrookie Jerry Robinson), and the running of Wilbert Montgomery, who was the first Eagle runner to gain over 1000 yards a season since Steve Van Buren did it in 1949. The kicking game will be vastly upgraded by two rookies, kicker Tony Franklin and punter Max Runager.

If the Eagles are to reach the play-offs again. Vermeil must shore up a weak secondary in summer drills and find some dependable backup players at nearly all positions. With a talent-thin squad, injuries could be catastrophic.

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No longer can Minnesota enter every season as the certain winner of its division championship. That is not because the Vikings suffer from creeping senility but because four former weak-sister teams of the conference are suddenly much stronger. Last fall's mildly disappointing record (Green Bay came close to usurping the title) was largely the result of injuries and an inexperienced offensive line. Chuck Foreman, who is most of the Vikings' ground attack, was hobbled much of the season. Another unsettling factor was quarterback Fran Tarkenton's not so subtle hints at imminent retirement. Players and fans alike now realize that richly talented Tommy Kramer is the Viking quarterback of the future, so Tarkenton's departure won't be such a cataclysmic event.

The best news as the Vikings enter summer drills is that all of last year's breaks and sprains have healed and the young offensive line appears to be much tougher and smarter. The running game will have added muzzle velocity with the arrival of rookie Ted Brown.

But if the Vikings don't do it, Green Bay is waiting in the wings. The Packers look like a team with a bright immediate future. They were in contention for the division championship all of last season, winning eight games with an extremely young team. Twenty-four of the 45 squad members were first- or second-year players.

Credit for the Packers' miraculous rehabilitation over the past five years goes to coach Bart Starr, who held the whole franchise together when the situation looked hopeless. The fans deserve credit for hanging on, too--there hasn't been an empty seat in Green Bay since 1959.

The Packer squad is loaded with able but obscure youngsters, thanks mostly to the perspicacious use by Starr of late draft choices. A young offensive line can only get better with time. Ditto quarterback David Whitehurst, though Lynn Dickey (who sat out all of last season with an injury) will be back in camp and could take the job if he can get the rust off. Terdell Middleton is one of the better runners in the league, but he needs a running mate, a need that could be ably filled by either of the Packers' first two draft choices, Eddie Lee Ivery or Steve Atkins. Keep an eye on the Packer defensive line--Mike Butler and Ezra Johnson could become the best pair of defensive ends in the country.

The Bears also have a good chance to make the play-offs if coach Neill Armstrong can solve a serious quarterback situation. Bob Avellini's confidence was badly shaken by last year's midseason eight-game losing streak, and backup passer Mike Phipps may need to reach some of the potential he showed when he came into the pros ten years ago.

The best indicator of early success for the Bears is the fact that they enter training camp this summer with a much more talented squad than the one that began play in '78, thanks to three very fortunate acquisitions during last season--receiver Golden Richards, tight end Mike Cobb and defensive lineman Alan Page. Also, the Bears had two first-round draft picks this past spring, using them to grab off defensive linemen Dan Hampton and Al Harris. Both should be immediate starters.

And, of course, the Bears' biggest asset is the running of Walter Payton and Roland Harper, who garnered more yardage last season than any other pair of runners in the league. They also caught more passes than did the Bear receivers. When the Bear running game is clicking, everything else seems to work better--including a well-rested defense.

Coach Monte Clark's sudden resurrection of the moribund Detroit team must surely inspire regretful envy in San Francisco, where Clark was abruptly ousted two years ago by erstwhile general manager Joe Thomas. One of Clark's major assets as a coach is the immense confidence his players have in him. He served his apprenticeship under Don Shula during the Miami Dolphins' salad years, then became an instant winner when he took over a floundering San Francisco squad three years ago.

One of the better indicators of Clark's coaching savvy is the fact that he gave the quarterback job to young Gary Danielson after last season's fifth game. Danielson is a future great--he has an ability to make things happen.

Cautions Clark, "We still don't have the week-to-week consistency of a championship club." But that is mostly because the Lions are a very young team. There were four rookie starters last year--three on the offensive line--and there may be nearly that many this season.

The happiest surprise at Detroit is the defensive line, led by awesome Al Baker, who was an instant starter last fall as a rookie and won a sackful of post-season honors.

Clark needs to shore up the defensive backfield and find another good linebacker and a big running back. If he can, the Lions could be one of the surprise teams.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can't seem to get out of rough water. After suffering through three disastrous first seasons as an expansion franchise, the Bucs won four of their first eight games last year, then the entire starting backfield was wiped out by injuries for most of the rest of the season. Total disaster was prevented by a tenacious defensive unit (one of the best in the country), which kept games close even when the crippled attack couldn't score any points.

With better medical luck, this could be Tampa's first winning season. Quarterback Doug Williams will have limitless potential with a healed jaw and some experience under his helmet. Almost as promising is the running tandem of Ricky Bell and Jimmy DuBose. Unfortunately, the offensive line--because of injuries--hasn't jelled yet, but it could do a lot of growing up before December. It will be ably reinforced by rookie guard Greg Roberts.

The mark of a healthy organization is the ability to continue functioning efficiently even when the main man is gone, and the late Los Angeles owner Carroll Rosenbloom obviously presided over a healthy organization. It now appears that Rosen bloom's tragic death last winter has not been as disruptive to the Rams' hopes for success as fans first feared.

There will be very little difference between this Ram squad and last year's, except for the retirement of guard Tom Mack. The squad is so deep that few of the rookies have a chance of surviving pre-season drills. Had the running backs not been depleted by injuries last season, the Rams almost certainly would have realized their longtime dream of reaching the Super Bowl. We think this will be the year for them to do it, now that head coach Ray Malavasi has a successful shakedown season under his belt.

Their only apparent need is for another backup quarterback. Rookie Jeff Rutledge may be the answer. Malavasi believes a club should have three passers on its roster, and the Rams have been making do with only Pat Haden and Vince Ferragamo. They're both good, but two injured knees could mean disaster.

The Rams moved their offices to Anaheim this summer, and the games will be played in the Anaheim stadium in 1980. The fans will like the change, despite the bitching of Los Angeles politicians. The seats will have better visibility, the parking will be more convenient and the traffic will be easier to fight.

The main hope of the Atlanta team is that its incredible good luck doesn't run out. The Falcons made the play-offs last fall by winning nine games, five of them in the last two or three minutes. It was the first respectable season in Atlanta since 1973, and the fan reaction was explosive. II quarterback Steve Bartkowski can stay healthy (last year was his first injury-free season since he left college), the Falcons will again have a big-play offense. The squad's main strength, though, is a veteran defensive unit, keyed by the linebacking crew of Greg Brezina, Fulton Kuykendall and Robert Penny-well. The running game must be reinforced, but the needed help should be provided by the draft, which brought in three promising runners, James May-berry, William Andrews and Lynn Cain. The draft also produced two of the better rookie linemen in the country, defensive end Don Smith and guard Pat Howell.

The future looks promising for the Falcons, due primarily to the presence of general manager Eddie LeBaron and head coach Leeman Bennett. They have brought a feeling of stability and confidence unprecedented in the 14-year history of the franchise.

Much of the Falcons' good luck in '78 came at the expense of New Orleans, their bitterest rival. The Saints managed to lose both Atlanta games in the last few seconds, which should make this year's opening game a barn burner when the two teams meet in the Superdome.

The best omen for the Saints' continued improvement is the accrued maturity of quarterback Archie Manning. Much of his increased productivity is due to the presence of gifted receivers Wes Chandler, Ike Harris and tight end Henry Childs. Manning's recent and unaccustomed freedom from injury also helps.

Another reason for hope is that the Saints will be much better adjusted to second-year coach Dick Nolan's methods and systems, especially the intricacies of the flex defense. Nolan still needs to find a couple of stud linebackers and a good backup runner to spell Chuck Muncie and Tony Galbreath. Also needed is a dependable place kicker--the Saints went through four last season without finding Mr. Right. They found him in the draft, though; Russell Erxleben is the best combination punter--place kicker in the history of college football. He can only get better in the pro ranks.

San Francisco has a promising new head coach (Bill Walsh, formerly of Stanford) but very little else. Walsh inherits a team with a pathetic lack of depth. For example, the starting quarterback will likely be Steve DeBerg, a former tenth-round draft choice of the Cowboys, who came to San Francisco on waivers. Behind DeBerg there was no one until the draft produced Joe Montana. The former Notre Dame field general was far from being the most coveted quarterback in the draft pool, but in college he had an uncanny knack for pulling oft last-minute miracles--a gift that will be sorely needed by the 49ers in years to come.

This sad state of affairs exists largely because a treasure-trove of high draft choices has been dealt away over the past three years. The two most disastrous trades were the ones that brought quarterback Jim Plunkett and runner O. J. Simpson. The 49ers now have nothing to show for the Plunkett deal, and this will almost certainly be the last season for O.J.

Walsh seems to have the moxie and the drive to rebuild the San Francisco club, but it will likely take several seasons. In the meantime, injuries to any of the few blue chippers on the team (linebacker Dan Bunz, tackle Keith Fahnhorst and defensive lineman Cleveland Elam are the best ones) could be disastrous, because there is little talent behind them.

And, finally, let's take a look at a device invented by the N.F.L. fathers last year, one that may have more to do with which teams get into the play-offs than talent, luck or dingbat officiating. It's something called position scheduling--which means that when the league office draws up the schedules for the coming season, it arranges them so that the stronger teams are matched mostly against one another in nondivisional play. Ditto the weaker teams. So if Buffalo or Kansas City should win as many games as Miami or Denver this fall, don't draw any hasty conclusions about their relative strengths.

Unfortunately, it also means that with a little luck, some soso teams could nose out some much stronger clubs for playoff berths. All of which will give us football nuts even more fodder for barroom arguments during the bleak months of the off season.

Playboy's 1979 Pre-season all-pro team

Offense

Lynn Swann, Pittsburgh..........Wide Receiver

John Jefferson, San Diego..........Wide Receiver

Billy Joe DuPree, Dallas..........Tight End

Dan Dierdorf, St. Louis..........Tackle

Doug France, Los Angeles..........Tackle

John Hannah, New England..........Guard

Joe DeLamielleure, Buffalo..........Guard

Mike Webster, Pittsburgh..........Center

Terry Bradshaw, Pittsburgh..........Quarterback

Walter Payton, Chicago..........Running Back

Tony Dorsett, Dallas..........Running Back

Garo Yepremian, Miami..........Place Kicker

Defense

Harvey Martin, Dallas..........End

Jack Youngblood, Los Angeles..........End

Louie Kelcher, San Diego..........Tackle

Randy White, Dallas..........Tackle

Randy Gradishar, Denver..........Middle Linebacker

Jack Ham, Pittsburgh..........Outside Linebacker

Robert Brazile, Houston..........Outside Linebacker

Mike Haynes, New England..........Cornerback

Louis Wright, Denver..........Cornerback

Cliff Harris, Dallas..........Free Safety

Thorn Darden, Cleveland..........Strong Safety

Ray Guy, Oakland..........Punter

Rick Upchurch, Denver..........Kick Returner

This Season's Winners

N.F.C. Eastern Division..........Dallas Cowboys

N.F.C. Central Division..........Minnesota Vikings

N.F.C. Western Division..........Los Angeles Rams

N.F.C. Play-offs....Los Angeles Rams

A.F.C. Eastern Division..........Baltimore Colts

A.F.C. Central Division..........Pittsburgh Steelers

A.F.C. Western Division..........Denver Broncos

A.F.C. Play-offs....Pittsburgh Steelers

Super Bowl.... Pittsburgh Steelers

Eastern Division

American Football Conference

Baltimore Colts.......... 10-6

Miami Dolphins.......... 9-7

New York Jets.......... 8-8

New England Patriots.......... 7-9

Buffalo Bills.......... 5-11

Central Division

American Football Conference

Pittsburgh Steelers........... 12-4

Houston Oilers.......... 9-7

Cincinnati Bengals.......... 8-8

Cleveland Browns.......... 6-10

Western Division

American Football Conference

Denver Broncos.......... 10-6

San Diego Chargers.......... 9-7

Oakland Raiders.......... 8-8

Seattle Seahawks.......... 8-8

Kansas City Chiefs.......... 4-12

"Tom Landry's fascination with trick plays, which cost his team dearly, will probably be suppressed."

Eastern Division

National Football Conference

Dallas Cowboys.......... 11-5

Washington Redskins.......... 9-7

St. Louis Cardinals.......... 8-8

New York Giants.......... 8-8

Philadelphia Eagles.......... 7-9

Central Division

National Football Conference

Minnesota Vikings.......... 9-7

Green Bay Packers.......... 9-7

Chicago Bears.......... 8-8

Detroit Lions.......... 7-9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers.......... 6-10

Western Division

National Football Conference

Los Angeles Rams.......... 12-4

Atlanta Falcons.......... 8-8

New Orleans Saints.......... 7-9

San Francisco 49ers.......... 2-14