A Bonehead Course in N.F.L. Betting

My condolences to the millions of you who can't watch a pro football game without betting on it. But if not for you, the nation's bookies would have to find other ways to come by their Caddies, gold Dunhill lighters, star-sapphire pinkie rings and far-flung spring vacations. Good Lord, if not for your pro-football habit, that could be you on the beach in Puerto Vallarta.

The sucker in all of us doesn't really care to be put down, of course, and since it's lots more constructive to light one little candle than to bet on what time the sun will rise, I've decided to bring you all a ray of hope. There is hope, you know, for even the most degenerate pro football bettor, and I'm not talking about joining Gamblers Anonymous or hiding out on a remote island as yet unsullied by bookies and television. I'm talking about beating the bookies at their own game. It can be done. I've done it and you can, too.

To beat the bookies, you're going to have to start with the assumption that you know absolutely nothing about handicapping pro football, which is probably true but which is irrelevant, in any case. Just bear in mind that the point spread is set by people who do it for a living, and if you think you're a better handicapper than they are, you're obviously too far gone for me to be of any service. Otherwise, I'm prepared to offer you this little course in N.F.L. betting, and if you act on it, you will win--period.

Understanding the Odds Against You

As you surely ought to know, the object of point-spread betting is to instantly turn even the most blatant mismatch into a 50-50 gamble in order to stimulate as much betting activity as possible. New York Giants rooters can hardly be expected to bet on their beleaguered heroes to actually beat Dallas; but make the Cowboys 11-and-a-half-point favorites and you've suddenly created a lot of interest in an otherwise predictable Cowboy victory.

That was exactly the case the second week of the 1978 season, when Dallas beat New York 34-24. Since Dallas won by only 10, Giants backers collected their bets. Cowboy rooters, in turn, had to ante up what they wagered, plus the standard ten percent commission (known as vigorish) (continued on page 284)Bonehead Betting(continued from page 236) that bookmakers collect on losing bets. The more bets, the more vigorish there is for the bookie.

The public prints have put forth a wealth of misinformation about how bookies make their money, so allow me to set the matter straight. Point spreads are designed to attract a more or less equal amount of betting money on both teams involved in a game. For years, it's been thought that just before kickoff time, bookmakers lay off any surplus money bet on either side of the betting line. Thus, if a bookie has $14,000 in bets on the Los Angeles Rams to defeat the San Francisco 49ers by, say, six and a half points, and if he has only $9000 on the 49ers to cover the spread, it's assumed he'll call another betting office and lay off his $5000 overage. With his books now neatly balanced, he doesn't care who wins: The bookmaker will pay $9000 to the winners and will collect $9000, plus $900--his profit--in vigorish, from the losers.

It just doesn't work like that. For one thing, bettors will keep phoning in wagers right up to the opening whistle; and for another, bookies are far too cunning to settle for a mere ten percent of one side of the action. Instead, they leverage that ten percent into one of the gambling world's greatest hustles.

Let's stay with the Ram-49er figures. Rather than lay off $5000, any bookie who's not a total nickel-and-dimer will lay off only $4000, leaving him with $10,000 on the Rams, $9000 on the 49ers. If the Rams win by at least seven points, he pays out $10,000 to Los Angeles bettors and collects $9900 ($9000, plus $900 in vigorish) from 49er backers, for a net loss of $100. A San Francisco point-spread victory, however, will result in the bookmakers' paying out $9000 to the 49er faction and collecting $11,000 ($10,000, plus $1000 vig) from Ram bettors, for a net win of $2000. Intriguing, isn't it? What you're looking at is the loss of a little cigarette money as opposed to a possible 20-1 payoff on a 50-50 betting proposition. And since football bets are 50-50 propositions--rather like coin flips shaded slightly in the bookies' favor--there's no way the bookie won't soon have you in his pocket. Bettors eventually get ground down by the 11-10 odds they lay, but still, there are far more winning N.F.L. bettors than prosperous track bums.

In any event, begin with the knowledge that the bookies' ten percent commission means that you have to win about 52 and a half percent of your bets just to stay even.

The 16-Game Syndrome: Mediocrity on the March

Last season may well have been the most turbulent in National Football League history, and the reason can be traced directly to the league's expanded 16-game schedule. The substitution of two regular-season games for two exhibition games resulted in many of pro football's strongest clubs not quite putting forth that mythical 110 percent effort coaches are so fond of prattling on about.

Danny Sheridan, the Alabama-based publisher of the nation's most expensive football newsletter, was quick to foresee the ramifications of the 16-game schedule: Before the start of last season, he said that underdogs would do extraordinarily well in '78, and he was right--they covered the spread in 58 percent of all regular-season contests. Sheridan, incidentally, wound up correctly predicting the point-spread results of better than 70 percent of the regular-season pro games he touted, and more than 90 percent of the time he went with the underdog, "That's because so many of the power teams realized they could make the play-offs without killing themselves every week. Before 1978, it almost always took a 10-4 record to get into the play-offs, but last season, all you needed was 10-6. And if you think about the extra two wild-card spots that were added, it's now possible to lose your division contest but still make the play-offs with a 9-7 record, as the Eagles and the Falcons did."

If you want a quicker take on those extra two games and extra two wild-card berths, consider this: In 1977, the last year of the 14-game schedule, play-off teams compiled an average winning percentage of just over 73. Last season, that figure fell to 66.6 percent. What it finally means is that instead of needing to win nearly three of every four games to make the play-offs, N.F.L. teams now need to win only two of every three. And with just four of pro football's 14 winning teams eliminated from postseason play last year, the object of the regular season--for Super Bowl contenders, anyway--has become to stay healthy for the play-offs. That doesn't make for sterling football on a week-to-week basis.

It does, however, make for a sterling way to begin plotting a betting pattern.

How deep is Emotion?

Joe Mikolas, whose theory on college-football wagering--The Mikolas Method--appeared in Playboy three years ago, flatly states that N.F.L. football is a game of emotion. "The majority of pro players were college All-Americans or close to it, which means there's very little difference among the teams in terms of talent," he says. "What really separates them is one club aching to beat the piss out of another."

That's not to deny that some teams are more talented than others. The Pittsburgh Steelers' passing game is light-years ahead of the Chicago Bears', primarily because Terry Bradshaw and his receivers are better players than Mike Phipps, Bob Avellini, Vince Evans--take your pick--and their receivers.

Still, in many situations, emotion can lift a team to inspired heights of achievement. In the third weekend of last season, for example, the injury-plagued Baltimore Colts, 17-point underdogs to the Patriots, upset New England 34-27; and later on in the year, the New Orleans Saints, 13-point underdogs to the Rams, beat them 10-3 in L.A. How could two of the weakest teams in pro football beat two of the N.F.L.'s strongest clubs?

The answer is emotion. Power teams do, indeed, play well in big games, but they often enough let the little ones slip away. In the examples mentioned, the Rams were coming off an impressive 34-17 road victory over the Vikings and were pointing toward their coming Monday-night game against Atlanta. At that point in the season, the Rams' record was 7-0, they were assured of repeating as N.F.C. Western Division champions and they just forgot all about the Saints. New England, meanwhile, was less concerned about the wounded Colts than about its nationally televised Sunday-night game against Oakland, which would take place the following week. The Colts, however, had lost their first two games of the season by scores of 38-0 and 42-0 and needed to make a superior effort their third time out.

The point spread is supposed to provide for all contingencies, including the ones I've indicated. But the point spread isn't writ on stone. Like the stock market, it is totally affected by the betting public's opinion. The betting public likes to go with a winner, which is why the betting public is a loser.

Beware of Favorites

Last year, only one of the N.F.L.'s six division champions--the 8-7-1 Denver Broncos--had a winning record against the point spread. Three division winners turned in truly abysmal point-spread performances: Los Angeles, Minnesota and New England were all 6-10 against the betting line. Since these are also "public" teams--teams that are heavily backed by the betting public--it should dawn on you that N.F.L. favorites often receive too many points from odds makers. Odds makers always know what they're doing: About two thirds of all football bets are placed on favorites, which is why they are overpriced--or did you think it was just bad karma that caused the Steelers, the N.F.L.'s finest team last year, to wind up 7-8-1 against the spread?

Overall, the N.F.L.'s six division winners finished the '78 season with 68 wins, 27 losses and one tie against opponents, yet they were a feeble 41-53-2 against the point spread. How could teams that won 71 percent of their games manage to win for bettors only 43.6 percent of the time? The answer is obvious: The betting public is paying a premium to back winners. "Every week," says L.A. bookmaker Sid West, "I wind up having to pull for garbage teams like Buffalo and Tampa Bay and Green Bay. You know What? I ain't complaining."

Take Underdogs Early in the Season but Late in the Week

Underdogs tend to do exceedingly well at the start of each season, when favorites are often overpriced. On opening day of this season, the Steelers and the Cowboys each figured to go off at a minimum of two and a half to three and a half points higher than they deserved, but that's what happens when the betting public persists in getting down heavily on the Super Bowl teams--and not just for one game but for an entire season. Additionally, the Super Bowl teams and other N.F.L. powers dominate national TV coverage of the sport, which reinforces their hold on bettors' hearts, minds and checkbooks. Really, which team would you rather bet on when settling down in front of the tube--the Cowboys or the Cardinals? The Steelers or the Browns? It's almost a test of character to back underdogs, who are undervalued by bettors as a result.

Another element in the mix is the home-team premium that bookmakers will charge you. If you live in an N.F.L. city whose team began the '79 season as a favorite, bookies have tacked on an extra point to the already inflated spread by way of making you pay dearly for the privilege of backing the local franchise. Thus, in Pittsburgh and Dallas, the Steelers and the Cowboys are probably overpriced by three and a half to four and a half points each.

Which is why underdogs are strong bets early in the season. But don't plunk your money down early in the week. Since favorites attract the majority of betting money, point spreads generally are at their highest on the day of a game.

Take Favorites Late in the Season but Early in the Week

When the price is right and when favorites aren't coasting because they have a three-game lead in their division, and when they aren't looking past a weak opponent toward a crucial game the following week, then of course you'll want to get on them. But make certain they seem ready to play full-bore. Case in point: For better than half of the '78 season, Dallas was an awful choice for bettors. After ten games, the Cowboys were 2-8 against the spread and 6-4 against their opponents--and Tom Landry was so bummed out he was ashamed to wear his Super Bowl ring. What followed was typical of what can happen once the big guys get their backs up. The Cowboys suddenly realized that with the Philadelphia Eagles playing so well, it was possible they might fail to make the play-offs. From then on, Dallas was simply awesome. In the last six weeks of the season, the Cowboys were undefeated and covered the point spread every time out, leveling opponents by the combined score of 184-61. When betting a favorite, phone the bet in as soon as your bookie opens for business. By getting down early, you'll often enough end up laying a half point to a point less than will be the case if you make your bet on Sunday.

Come Home, America

Not only should you root for the home team, you should bet on it as well. N.F.L. home teams last year checked in with a winning record against the point spread of about 55 percent. The best bet you can make on a home team is also the best bet you can make in pro football--home underdogs. Last year, they beat the point spread 52 times against only 26 losses. Any time you can consistently win at a 66.6 percent pace, you're entitled to whisper the unmentionable into your bookie's ear: that you've discovered a system--or at least a winning ploy. If you'd bet $100 a game on N.F.L. home underdogs last season, you'd have walked off with a net profit of $2340. Not too shabby.

To be sure, bookies are hip to what's happening, but as long as the public continues to back winners, you'll be able to clean up on home underdogs. The absolute worst bet you can make is to take a favorite on the road, which should be obvious after again checking out the point-spread performance of home underdogs.

The Intradivisional Rivalry Gambit

Intradivision games make for the N.F.L.'s most heated rivalries. The annual wars waged twice each autumn between such teams as the Vikings and the Bears, the Cowboys and the Redskins, the Steelers and the Browns, and the Patriots and the Dolphins produce football at its most exciting. These games also produce an intriguing fact of point spread betting: In the majority of cases, the team that fails to cover the point spread in the first game will do so the second time around. Last season, 65 percent of these two-game series ended with each of the rivals winning one and losing one to the spread. To employ this gambit, simply check out the betting results of the first game and go with the losing side in the rematch. Aside from backing home underdogs, this is the next best bet you can make in pro football. Trust it.

You don't have Howard to Kick Around Anymore

For many years, the betting world has honored Humble Howard by naming an aberration after him: The Cosell Factor has long signified the curious malaise that has caused Monday Night Football participants to lose to the point spread the following Sunday. From 1974 through 1977, the teams appearing on Monday Night Football won 30 and lost 66 times against the spread the following Sundays. Bookies attributed it to the teams' losing 14 percent of their preparation time for upcoming Sunday games.

With the advent of the 16-game season, the Cosell Factor is no longer operative. In '78, Monday-night teams posted a 15-14-1 record against the spread the following Sundays. The reason may be that although a team coming off a Monday-night game is only 86 percent ready to do battle, it may well meet up with a club that's coasting and is therefore putting out an 85 percent effort. Howard will be relieved to hear it.

Three Ultrabonehead Mistakes

Being boneheads, many of you will have great difficulty remembering all the simple things you've read here. As a last resort, I offer you the following concise advice, which I suggest you clip out and tape to your telephone, so you'll see it each time you call your bookie. If you don't remember anything else, remember not to commit these three fatal mistakes:

1. Don't try to get even on Monday night.

2. Don't bet on more than four pro games a weekend.

3. Don't risk more than twice as much as you normally bet on games you fall in love with.

I'd like to think that what I've told you will do some good. But I wouldn't bet on it.

"The betting public likes to go with a winner, which is why the betting public is a loser.