The Spread A Sporting Man's Guide to College Football

"The Race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong," Damon Runyon wrote, "but that's the way to bet." Runyon could have been alluding to college football during the past decade. The meek may inherit the earth, but in the college game, the weak don't cover the spread. The wars will always be won by those who can put the biggest, quickest and most talented youngsters into pads and helmets.

Although the point spread is supposed to be the great equalizer--a handicapping system that awards extra points to the squad that is presumed to be weaker in any given game--a study of the nation's major college football teams' performances against the spread over the past ten years shows, among other things, that the best teams are the best bets. [See box on page 148.] Conversely, the big losers on the Scoreboard have also been the biggest losers against the numbers. It is a sobering fact of college football life that Northwestern, Texas Christian and Virginia haven't been able to "hold that line" either on the field or at the local candy store.

Here are some of the bends, trends and point-spread tendencies of major college teams over the past ten seasons.

Air Force: Anyone who took a flier on the fly boys in '82 was rewarded for his daring investment. The Falcons were 6--0 against the point spread, 5--0 as underdogs. Quite a turnaround for a team that was 1--4 versus the numbers in 1981 and 28--46--2 the previous nine years.

Alabama: It's time to open a new book on the Crimson Tide. 'Bama and Oklahoma are the only teams that haven't been underdogs at home the past decade; the Tide won all three appearances outright when getting points. Alabama has covered in its first game for six consecutive seasons, so the pressure will be on coach Ray Perkins from the start.

Arizona: Coach Larry Smith's inconsistent team is 11--2 on the road for the past three seasons, while the point-spread mark at home is 2--11. These 'Cats would prefer to fight in someone else's alley.

Arizona State: The Desert Devils are always dangerous, but they're overrated in their Tempe trap. They are 6--2--1 as home dogs over the past decade but just 20--20 giving points.

Arkansas: It's easy to get high on the Hogs. Their over-all mark is 64--46--1. Ever wonder why Razorback fans wear those funny hats? That's where they keep all their money. The Hogs are 41--24 at home versus the line. But stay clear of the Razorbacks when the eyes of Texas are upon them. They've covered only three of their past ten encounters against the Longhorns.

Army: You can kiss the Black Knights of the Hudson good night when they play Navy; the Cadets are 2--8 versus the points in the last ten meetings with the Middies. During the past decade, they are 9--18--2 as away dogs.

Auburn: The Tigers have gone from money burners to big-time earners under coach Pat Dye. Auburn has been 18--4 against the line for the past two seasons: 10--2 in 1982, including a season-ending eight-game winning streak against the numbers. Looking for a trend? The Tigers have covered four straight against Alabama.

Baylor: The Bears have been bad news as favorites (10--13--2 at home) but have been a solid investment getting points in Waco. Coach Grant Tealf's club is 12--6--2 as a dog, including a 5--0--1 mark in its past six home games.

Boston College: The Eagles have won their past four openers against the line. But against Holy Cross they've covered in just one of their last five games.

Brown: The Bruins are 12--18 as home favorites, including a current six-game losing streak. On the road, they're equally inept: 9--17--2. Catch the Bruins as underdogs (13--7), especially against Cornell (9--1 in their past ten meetings).

California: Four is the hot number for the boys from Berkeley. Cal was 1--4 as a dog last season and 4--1 as a favorite; has a 4--1--1 mark in its past six openers; has four straight wins over nonconference opponents but is just 4--11 in its last 15 away games.

Clemson: Clemson is 18--2 in its past 20 appearances as a dog, including seven straight victories. Its ten-year mark is 35--16 as an underdog and its over-all record is an enormously profitable 62--42--2. However, this point-spread powerhouse is just 1--4 in its past five openers on the board.

Colorado: At one time, the rarefied air at home was a big plus for the Buffaloes; but now, the only rarity is a win. The team's 17--11 mark as a home favorite--a mark built in better days--is the only thing that keeps the over-all ledger close to .500, at 43--55--1.

Columbia: The Lions are 30--43 getting points but 3--0 as home favorites. They do teach patience in the Ivy League.

Cornell: The Big Red has bathed its backers in red ink. Only in performances as a favorite on the road has Cornell been a worthwhile investment (7--4).

Dartmouth: The Big Green won its final six spread appearances in '82 and has covered in seven of its past eight as a favorite at home. And it's impressive on the last day of the season, too (7--3).

Duke: Known more for medicine than for middle linebackers, more for point guards than for pulling guards, Duke should never be confused with a good bet. Stay away from the Blue Devils, especially when they're favored (12--20--3).

Florida: Charley Pell has a reputation as a strong point-spread coach, but his first Florida team (0--10--1) went just 3--8 against the spread. In 1980, Pell rebounded with a 9--1--1 record. The past two seasons have been slightly above .500. The Gators are 12--6 as away dogs over the last decade.

Florida State: The Seminoles are 7--2--1 in their past ten outings against the Big Eight and a perfect, if select, 2--0 against the Big Ten (both road victories over Ohio State in Columbus). The Seminoles are 23--17--1 in Tallahassee and 3--1 in their past four bowl appearances.

Georgia: My, how these Bulldogs do bite when they get points (9--1--1 in their past 11 outings). Georgia is 12--4--1 in its past 17 games on the road and 5--2 in its past seven openers. The bad news is, the 'Dawgs are 2--5 in their past seven against Georgia Tech.

Georgia Tech,: The Yellow Jackets are 3--6 in their past nine home-dog appearances. As a double-digit underdog, Tech is 2--7 in its past nine outings, including a 1--3 mark in '82.

Harvard: When the Johnnies leave the Yard for their first road game each season, they take it to the books. Coach Joe Restic's Crimson team is 9--1 in its road openers over the past decade and 23--13 overall away from Cambridge. It is, however, 2--5 in its last seven games against Yale.

Houston: Once a solid point-spread team, the Cougars have slumped against the line in the past two years (6--14, including 2--8 in 1982). Upside: They're 5--2 in bowl games since '73. Downside: They're 0--5 in their past five games against nonconference opponents and 1--3 in their last four against Texas.

Illinois: A miserable point-spread team on the rise under pass-happy coach Mike White. The Fighting Illini are 5--10 in their past 15 appearances as home dogs and closed '82 with three point-spread wins. But it's a long climb up from a ten-year mark of 12--18--1 as home favorites.

Indiana: Coach Lee Corso was better with one-liners than on the side lines. The team's ten-year mark is 16--18 as a home dog, but the Hoosiers have covered just two of their past ten. A bright spot is a 7--3 mark in Indiana's past ten games against Purdue.

Iowa: The Hawkeyes, a nondescript point-spread team, have covered four straight times against Michigan State.

Iowa State: The Cyclones have lost four of their last five as home dogs but have covered four of five against Iowa and have won their past four openers on the board.

Kansas: The Jayhawks have covered six of their past eight appearances as home underdogs. But Jayhawk goodbyes are not good buys: Kansas has failed to cover the spread in four of its past five finales.

Kansas State: The Wildcats are 14--32--4 against the spread on the road, though last year's spread record was 7--3.

Kentucky: These Wildcats have suffered through three consecutive losing seasons against the points, including 2--9 in '82 and a 5--13--2 mark in their past 20 road games.

Louisiana State: The Tiger Den is just another overrated home field. The Bengals are 33--28--4 versus the spread in their Baton Rouge lair over the past decade. Despite a 3--1 road record last season, the Fighting Tigers are 16--28 away from home. Upside: The Tigers have covered in their past three bowl games.

Maryland: Slow and steady wins the race, and that's been the case with this band of turtles (Terrapins, if you will). Bolstered by an 8--2--1 mark under the first-year guidance of coach Bobby Ross, the Terps improved their top-ranked record against the points to 64--41--5. Maryland is 8--1--1 in its past ten games away from home, including 5--0 in '82. The record at home is 30--15--1 over the past decade.

Miami: The Hurricanes have become a good point-spread team (18--14--2) under Howard Schnellenberger, but their ten-year record is still below .500 (43--54--2). True to the recent trend, Miami has covered seven of its past eight finales and is 4--0--1 in its past five outings as a road dog.

Michigan: Coach Bo takes a lot of heat for his ineffectiveness in big games, but his Wolverines are consistently one of the finest point-spread teams in the land. November is their sweetest month; they are 18--5 in their past 23 November games. The Wolverines are also 7--3 in their past ten games against Ohio State, but they're 2--6 in their past eight howl games.

Michigan State: The Spartans were a Jekyll-and-Hyde team in '82 against the line: 0--4--1 in East Lansing, 4--1--1 on the road. They're 6--2--1 in their past nine dog showings on the road and 18--10--3 during the past decade.

Minnesota: The Golden Gophers have ended their past seven regular seasons with point-spread losses to Wisconsin. They're 9--21 as road underdogs over the past decade. Upside: Lou Grant used to love to bet on the Gophers when getting points at home--and he got rich. They're 13--8--1 in that role.

Mississippi: The Rebels, who have been rebuilding (continued on page 148)The Spread(continued from page 115) forever, have been one of the poorest point-spread teams in the country. As an underdog, Ole Miss is 13--26--1 away from home. What's worse, the Rebs are 3--7 in their past ten games as double-digit dogs.

Mississippi State: The Bulldogs, at 44--47--3, aren't a much better investment than those Rebels, but coach Emory Bellard has improved matters. Mississippi State is 9--6 as a home dog, including six of its past eight games. It has also covered four straight against 'Bama.

Missouri: The Tigers were once "the giant killers" under Al Onofrio, but the team is only 20--20 as an underdog over the past decade. The Tigers have won five of their last seven games as underdogs, though they were 1--4 on the road in '82.

Navy: The Middies are 8--3--1 in their past dozen underdog appearances on the road.

Nebraska: The Cornhuskers, who are noted blowout specialists, are 51--41--4 as favorites--and that's against some mind-boggling point spreads. But as underdogs (which they rarely are), they are 4--4, including 2--3 on the road, and are just 4--6 in their past ten howl visits.

North Carolina: You can usually spot Tar Heel backers counting their profits when the Chapel Hill team gets points. Carolina is 20--5 as an underdog during the past ten years, including ten of its last 11. The Tar Heels are also 5--2 in their past seven howl games and have won four straight against the numbers in nonconference games.

North Carolina State: The Wolfpack has been a study in consistency. Away from Raleigh, it has lost nine of its last 12 as an underdog; but when the Pack has gotten points at home, it's won 11 of 15 during the past decade, including five of its last six.

Northwestern: The Mildcats won three games outright in '82, but they remain one of the easiest marks in the wonderful world of favorites and underdogs. They have been, remarkably, double-digit dogs in their past 15 games. The last time Northwestern was favored was in 1975.

Notre Dame: America's college team is 55--56--4 against the line over the past decade. The Irish have won five of their last six openers against the points, including the last four, and are 4--2 in their last six bowl visits. Downside: The Irish have failed to cover in three of their past four games as home underdogs, and they were 1--5--1 in '82 as favorites.

Ohio State: State has cost the home folks some bucks in recent seasons. The Buckeyes have lost nine of their last 13 against the numbers as home favorites. They were 1--5 in that role last season and lost outright three consecutive games in which they were favored. But catch the Buckeyes & mdash;if you can & mdash; as dogs on the road (3--1 over the past decade).

Oklahoma: Under Barry Switzer, the Sooners have been one of the best bets over the past ten years. Although it must often give astronomical numbers, Oklahoma is 29--21--2 at home and an even more impressive 4--0--1 in the rare role of road underdog.

Oklahoma State: You can catch the Cowboys looking ahead to the Sooners each season. The Stillwater team is 3--7 over the past decade in games preceding those against Oklahoma, but it hasn't helped much: The Cowboys have covered just two of their past ten against the Sooners.

Oregon: The best thing the Ducks have going for them is Oregon State, against whom they have covered in six of their past seven games.

Oregon State: Last year, the Beavers had their first winning season against the points (5--4) since 1974. But these Beavers are never eager at home, where they've lost ten of their past 14 point-spread decisions. Go against 'em on the road (23--31--2) as well.

Pennsylvania: The Quakers are no longer Ivy League door mats, and you can look for the odds makers to wise up. Penn was 6--2 against the line in '82, including the games in which it got points. The Quakers have also won seven of their last eight as underdogs at home.

Penn State: When the Nittany Lions leave home, they mean business--27--17. Penn State is solid in bowls, too, going 7--2--1 over the past decade.

Pittsburgh: Panther backers have hit the jackpot on the road, where this team is 34--17--1 over the past ten seasons. Do the Panthers play good defense? Well, take a peek at these numbers: In the past 22 games in which Pitt has scored 20 or more points, it is 18--4 against the spread.

Princeton: The Tigers have ended three of the past four seasons with point-spread victories, and they are 4--2--1 in their past seven games as home underdogs.

Purdue: The Boilermakers have been dismal home favorites (12--20--1) and equally inept away from Lafayette (18--27--2). They've had three consecutive losing years against the points and dropped five of six home decisions against the line in '82.

Rice: It isn't wise to back the Owls at home; they're 21--30 in Houston. Rice and the Houston Cougars have flip-flopped point-spread decisions in each of the past seven seasons. The Owls won in '82.

South Carolina: The Gamecocks failed to cover at home in '82 (0--3--1) and have lost their past three games getting points there. Despite four straight setbacks last year, though, their record as home dogs is 9--5--1 for the past decade. The Gamecocks have also won their last two outings as double-digit favorites.

Southern California: The Trojans, who are usually laying heavy numbers, operate on cruise control against mediocre opponents; they're 8--3--1 in their past 12 games as double-digit favorites. When they are getting points, the Trojans are also a worthwhile investment, at 9--1--1. Downside: USC has dropped three straight to UCLA.

Southern Methodist: The Mustangs have covered seven of their past 11 games as road favorites and three of their past four against non conference foes, including last year's Cotton Bowl win over Pittsburgh.

Stanford: The Cardinals are 19--7 when getting points away from "the Farm," including ten of their past 11 games.

Syracuse: The Orangemen are 27--20 at home and have won four of their last five as home favorites. They also have plus records at home and away, giving points and getting (an over-all mark of 56--43--1).

Tennessee: The Volunteers have been drastically overrated during the past few years. They have lost nine of their past 13 road games against the points, and they are 2--13 in their past 15 games as favorites.

Texas: The Longhorns know how to hook 'em in Austin, where they are 31--19--and where they've covered in their past five games as favorites. But beware of Texas in bowl games, where the 'Horns are 3--6 against the line since 1973.

Texas A&M: You can bet the Aggies have cost wealthy alumni a couple of oil wells with their point-spread performances. A&M is 10--22 when getting points, including 3--10 as an underdog in College Station and 2--6 in its past eight September games. Upside: The Aggies have won five of their past seven season finales.

Texas Christian: Against the points, TCU stands about as much of a chance as did the Christians against the lions. It is safe to bet against the Horned Frogs any time, but they're at their worst as home favorites (0--4 in '82), as away dogs (21--32--1) and against non conference foes (1--4 the past five times out).

Texas Tech: The Red Raiders have won seven of their past 11 underdog road games.

Tulane: The Green Wave slipped to 3--7 against the points in '82. Still, it defeated LSU for the third time in four seasons and is 7--3 against the Bengals with the points over the past decade. More upside: Tulane is 9--5 as a road favorite. Downside: It has crashed in opening road games over the past seven seasons (1--6).

Ucla: The Bruins are 50--36--2 as favorites over the past decade, including 4--0 in '82 on the road. They are also 4--1--1 in their past six games against USC and have won six of their past eight openers.

Vanderbilt: This former S.E.C. door mat turned things around last season (9--2 against the spread). Vandy is also 9--3--1 in its past 13 underdog games.

Virginia: The Cavaliers are 4--17 as favorites during the past ten years and 19--30--2 getting points on the road. They have also dropped eight of their past 12 against nonconference opponents.

Virginia Tech: The Gobblers are 6--3 against their past nine A.C.C. opponents.

Wake Forest: The Deacons are 3--11 when giving points and have lost nine of their past 11 at home against the line.

Washington: Coach Don James has built a consistent winner at Washington, and the Huskies are at their best in big games, especially when they get points. Washington has won six of its past eight games as an underdog and is 3--1--1 in its past five bowl appearances. But the Huskies have lost three of their last four against Washington State.

Washington State: The Cougars have become point-spread terrors under Jim Walden in the past three years. They have won 20 of their past 29 point-spread decisions. The Cougars are 27--17--2 as road dogs and have taken four of their past five games when getting points at home.

West Virginia: The Mountaineers are 5--3--1 as road favorites over the past decade and were 4--0 away from home in '82.

Wisconsin: The Badgers have been battered by nonconference foes (2--8 in their past ten games).

Yale: The Bulldogs are a good investment except when they're getting points away from home (2--4). Try the Elis as home dogs (6--1) and as road favorites (18--10--1).

"Under Barry Switzer, the Sooners have been one of the best bets over the past ten years."