Playboy's Pro Football Forecast

It was the worst of seasons. Early last year, a pro football strike seemed unthinkable. As each week of the exhibition season passed, it became inevitable. The wrong cast of characters took center stage. There was the sullen and seemingly inept Gene Upshaw, the rep for the players' union, whose own council so woefully misread the cunning of the owners; in the opposing camp was the oily-tongued Jack Donlan, who represented the owners, that vengeful lot that, after it had broken the strike with scab games, exacted the final measure of punishment by locking the players out an extra week on a technicality just to show them who the boss really had been.

And there were the scabs, in that three-week onslaught of plumbers, unemployed construction workers, high school gym teachers and sons of pro players from another era finally having their moment to live up to their fathers' dreams. They didn't play very good football, but at least they offered some evidence that they loved the game.

Who lost? The players got nothing other than the message that they weren't nearly as tough as real union men--steel-and autoworkers--who stayed out a lot longer and who had a lot less to start with. The players' union lost its credibility with the public and with its own members. At the moment, the union is having difficulty collecting dues, since without a signed labor-management agreement, there is no automatic collection system. In fact, if a couple of petitions get a few more player signatures, this particular union may not be around at all.

The team owners won the battle, but the war in court is far from over; and as the guys at Texaco will advise you, never take those judges for granted, even if they do have season tickets. The fans? They really got screwed. Their Sunday and Monday-night habits were indelicately toyed with, their player-hero allegiances trampled, their devotion to the sport taken for granted more than Mike Ditka's temper tantrums.

But the fans are resilient. They need their pro football fix, and they'll push all their frustration and anger aside so that they can once again leap toward the sky with Jerry Rice to make a T.D. grab, glide by the Boz's earring on Bo's shirttail, wear their shades and talk back to the kids like the impudent McMahon, microphone in one hand, taco in the other. Come on back, gladiators of the gridiron. We need you. The season begins and all is forgiven.

In 1986, it was "the drive," engineered by John Elway and the Denver Broncos, that sent the Cleveland Browns packing after the A.F.C. championship game. Last season, it was "the fumble." Cleveland played dead for Denver in the first half, but then Bernie Kosar found his passing touch, and running back Earnest Byner his legs, and the game turned from the ordinary to the electric. The Browns, down 21--3 at the start of the third quarter, began to destroy the Denver defense. With one minute and 12 (continued on page 168)Pro Football Forecast(continued from page 116) seconds left to play and the score 38--31, Kosar handed the ball to Byner, and a clear path to the goal line opened for what would be the tying touchdown. A split second later, the ball was loose, Denver recovered and the game was over. Byner, the player Cleveland head coach Marty Schottenheimer calls the heart and soul of the Browns' offense, sprawled in defeat and dejection.

Frustration and self-pity would have made some teams regress. Schottenheimer instead scheduled meetings with each player, tacked the word Resolve on the bulletin board and hammered it into the players' consciousness. That resolve and eight current Pro Bowl players, including the best quarterback in football, should carry the Browns to Super Bowl XXIII.

Keys to winning: Linebacker Mike Junkin, last year's number-one pick, must recover from a wrist injury that cut short a disappointing rookie season. The Browns' first two draft picks from this year, Clifford Charlton and Michael Dean Perry, the Fridge's brother, must develop quickly to turn an excellent defense into a dominating one. Kosar and the Browns' offense have to adjust to the loss of offensive coordinator Lindy Infante, now the head coach for the Green Bay Packers. And Ozzie Newsome, the great Cleveland tight end, has to put together one more season before he hangs it up.

The Houston Oilers, a play-off team last year for the first time since 1980, may not have the experience nor the defensive grit to take them past the Browns, but coach Jerry Glanville has a cast of characters who still haven't figured out how good they can be. Quarterback Warren Moon, whose role as team rep during the players' strike helped him emerge as team leader, will improve on last year's solid performance. Houston's wide-receiver tandem of Drew Hill and Ernest Givins had more combined yards than any other pair of receivers in the N.F.L., Jerry Rice and company notwithstanding. Running back Mike Rozier now rates as one of the best backs in the conference, after gaining 957 yards for a 4.2-yard average last year.

Keys to winning: Improve a pass defense that allowed 25 touchdowns last year. Make productive use of last year's number-one draft pick, running back Alonzo High-smith, a major disappointment after a prolonged contract holdout. Avoid injuries in the defensive secondary, where the Oilers are thin.

At Pittsburgh, head coach Chuck Noll is committed to shuffling the deck until he gets a winning hand. Quarterback Mark Malone, who lost both Noll's confidence and the support of Pittsburgh fans, was traded to San Diego. Todd Blackledge, acquired from Kansas City, will battle Bubby Brister for the number-one quarterback spot. Running backs Earnest Jackson and Frank Pollard are competent but in a quiet sort of way. Noll has a decent defense to work with, led by team M.V.P. linebackers Mike Merriweather and Bryan Hinkle. Unless he draws a couple of unexpected wild cards, the Steelers will continue to lose as many games as they win.

Keys to winning: The quarterback question must be settled early and decisively. Wide receiver Louis Lipps must return to form after two injury-plagued years. Cornerback Rod Woodson, last year's number-one draft pick, has to get his personal life in order and concentrate on football.

In Cincinnati last season, bad luck and bad judgment seemed to go hand in hand. The last seconds of the game against San Francisco in week two presaged the Bengals' year. Ahead 26--20, with six seconds left, coach Sam Wyche elected on fourth down to try to run out the clock with an end sweep instead of punting or taking an intentional safety. The Bengals botched their blocking assignments, and San Francisco took over with two seconds to go. Incredibly, 49er wide receiver Jerry Rice drew single coverage and proceeded to make the winning T.D. catch. Cincinnati never recovered, winning only three games the rest of the year. To everyone's surprise, owner Paul Brown has given the emotional head coach another season and a chance to redeem himself.

Keys to winning: Wyche must regain the confidence and respect of the players as he searches for a way to turn a talented bunch of individuals into a cohesive team. The Bengals need consistency from quarterback Boomer Esiason and running back James Brooks, out much of last season with an ankle injury. Some defensive stalwarts must develop to go along with All Pro nose guard Tim Krumrie.

The success of the Indianapolis Colts last year was no fluke. They made significant improvements in rushing (26th in 1986, sixth in 1987). Their defense allowed only 238 points, the fewest in the N.F.L. The addition of Eric Dickerson not only brought them a great player but gave the team the confidence to win. With Dickerson running the ball, the Colts' offensive line, which averages 6'4" and 291 pounds, produced three Pro Bowlers: Chris Hinton, Ray Donaldson and Ron Solt.

Keys to winning: A healthy and happy Gary Hogeboom at quarterback would be helpful. Hogeboom is currently hinting that he may sit out this year unless the Colts renegotiate the last year of a three-year contract, despite the fact that he missed all but 11 games the past two years because of injuries. Understudy Jack Trudeau has done an adequate job when Hogeboom has been out. Members of the Colts' defensive backfield will have to prove that they didn't play over their heads last year.

The Buffalo Bills are a team on the upswing. Jim Kelly has matured into one of the premiere quarterbacks in the N.F.L. Cornelius Bennett and Shane Conlan are the two best young linebackers in the conference. Coach Marv Levy, who was satisfied with the Bills' progress last year (7--8), will not be satisfied with anything less than a play-off berth this season.

Keys to winning: The Bills must improve their rushing game. They had no first-round pick in the draft, having traded it in the deal to acquire Bennett, so they were pleasantly surprised when Oklahoma State's Thurman Thomas was still available in the second round.

The New England Patriots missed the play-offs last year for the first time in three seasons. Injuries to quarterback Tony Eason, running back Craig James and defensive backs Raymond Clayborn and Roland James were part of the reason. They are all expected back, but linebackers Steve Nelson and Don Blackmon will not return--Nelson because of retirement, Blackmon because of a neck injury. Head coach Raymond Berry has emphasized the weight room in the off season, since he thinks the N.F.C. is more physical than the A.F.C. That idea probably first occurred to him in Super Bowl XX, when the Bears manhandled the Patriots.

Keys to winning: The Patriots must resurrect their running game. Number-one pick John Stephens out of Northwestern Louisiana State, thought by some pro scouts to be the best all-round runner in this year's draft, should help. Eason has to recover from his shoulder injury, and the defense must find more players like linebacker Andre Tippett.

Miami coach Don Shula succinctly sums up the problems of the Dolphins: "Defensively, we aren't even close to where we have to be to be a play-off team." And this year's draft, short on defensive talent, had the Dolphins reaching on their first pick when they chose Ohio State linebacker Eric Kumerow. Kumerow was regarded by most teams as a "tweener"--too small to play down at defensive end, too slow for pass coverage. But when you have Dan Marieo at quarterback and the "Marks" brothers, Duper and Clayton, at wide receiver, you can never discount the Dolphins' chances, particularly with Shula drawing up the game plan.

Keys to winning: Shula must find answers to the Dolphins' defensive problems. The possible retirement of safety Glenn Blackwood following a knee injury and the questionable health of former Pro Bowl linebacker Hugh Green only complicate the situation, as does last season's knee injury to everybody's All Pro center, Dwight Stephenson.

While all of the teams in the A.F.C. East were hurt by injuries last year, none came close to the woes of the New York Jets. Add up the number of games missed by Jet regulars because of injuries, and you get the astounding total of 119. And cornerback Kerry Glenn and linebacker Lance Mehl may not be able to recover in time for this season. Much-criticized coach Joe Walton, electing to go on a youth movement, released popular Jet veterans Joe Klecko and Joe Fields. If you coach a professional sports team, there's no worse place to be when you're not winning than New York.

Keys to winning: Obviously, the Jets have to look more like a football team and less like a MASH unit. The offensive line has to protect Ken O'Brien, who is an excellent quarterback when he's not being handed his lunch throughout the game. Walton can hope that his draft picks quickly step in to fill the holes, but, frankly, there are too many holes for the Jets to challenge this year.

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Don't look now, but Al Davis has been busy building another dynasty, the kind that's likely to dominate the A.EC. for the next five years. It's missing only the crown jewel: a quarterback. If the Raiders get the right Q.B. instead of a revolving-door system with Rusty Hilger, Vince Evans and Steve Beuerlein, they'll give the Super Bowl--frustrated Broncos a run for the division title. Linemen Bill Pickel and Howie Long anchor a Raiders defense that last year was second only to the Browns' in the A.F.C. in fewest combined yards surrendered. Offensively, the team can put Marcus Allen, Bo Jackson (expected to return again once he finishes the baseball season at Kansas City) and Tim Brown on the field at the same time.

Davis' craftiness doesn't end with player deals. He hired his new coach, Mike Shanahan, away from the Broncos just before the deadline that prohibits teams from negotiating with coaches from other N.F.L. franchises. Thus, Dan Reeves not only lost Shanahan and a couple of assistants but was unable to look elsewhere in the N.F.L. for replacements.

Keys to winning: The Raiders must either deal for a quarterback who can be their number-one guy or settle on one of the group they have. The offensive line has to avoid injuries, since there is little depth. A couple of project players on defense must develop, particularly draft pick Scott Davis, who right now has more talent than motivation.

The only team to play in three consecutive Super Bowls is the Miami Dolphins. That feat is exactly what the Denver Broncos will have to duplicate if they're to redeem themselves after two successive Super Bowl defeats. They have John Elway, the Nolan Ryan of pro football, the three amigos (Vance Johnson, Mark Jackson and Ricky Nattiel) at wide receiver and the enormously competitive Karl Mecklenburg on defense. But so far, that hasn't been enough to get them through the second half of their two Super Bowl games. The Giants decimated them in the second half of Super Bowl XXI. Last year, the Redskins owned them in the final 30 minutes of Super Bowl XXII.

Keys to winning: The Broncos must become a more physical team on defense; and running back Tony Dorsett, acquired in a trade from Dallas, will have to prove he's not over the hill.

The Seattle Seahawks were a study in inconsistency last year. What was most unsettling was the margin of some of their losses: a 40--17 drubbing by Denver in the season opener and a 37--14 loss to the Raiders in a Monday-night game in which Seattle appeared to quit. Head coach Chuck Knox, perennially dissatisfied with quarterback Dave Krieg, has acquired Kelly Stouffer from Phoenix, the Cardinals' number-one 1987 draft choice who sat out all of last year because owner Billy Bidwell wouldn't come up with the bucks he thought he deserved. While Stouffer may help in the future, the Sea-hawks' defense, 22nd in the league last season, ought to be Knox's major concern.

Keys to winning: Linebacker Brian Bosworth will have to start living up to his press clippings. While defensive end Jacob Green and linebacker Fredd Young are Pro Bowlers, they need help, especially now that safety Kenny Easley has been forced to retire because of a medical problem. Q.B. Krieg has to cut down on his habit of throwing the ball to the wrong team (he had 15 interceptions last year).

Frank Gansz, the second-year head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs, was very successful when he was coach of their special teams. That's how he got the head-coaching job. But Gansz got an unwelcome surprise last year when the Chiefs' defense suffered a major letdown. Gansz has addressed the problem by hiring three new assistants and toughening up the off-season training program. He has also settled on quarterback Bill Kenney as his main man and acquired Steve DeBerg to act as Kenney's second. The pleasant surprise for the Chiefs last year was the emergence of rookie Christian Okoye, the running back from Nigeria who started playing organized football five years ago. Evidently, if you weigh 253 pounds and run the 40-yard dash in 4.45 seconds, you don't need much practice.

Keys to winning: Get the defense on the same page it was on in 1986, when it was second in the A.F.C. in fewest combined yards allowed. Changing back to the 3--4 alignment should help, as will the addition of number-one pick Neil Smith, the defensive end out of Nebraska with a seven-and-one-half-foot wing span.

Some teams, the Giants and the Eagles, for example, never recovered after their scab replacements put a three in the loss column during the strike. However, for head coach Al Saunders and the San Diego Chargers, the problem was a little different. Their scab team won three times. Those wins, combined with some heroics from the regulars on their return, gave the Chargers a total of eight straight victories, and San Diego fans and some of the media took the Chargers for what they aren't: a good football team. Instead of being able to patiently rebuild with realistic expectations, Saunders finds himself in an undeserved hot seat in only his second year.

To compound the Chargers' problems, veteran quarterback Dan Fouts put his battered body in retirement, leaving San Diego quarterback-desperate. A trade for Pittsburgh's Mark Malone gives them a warm body at the position, but Malone was never the answer for the Steelers.

Keys to winning: Malone must flourish as he never did at Pittsburgh. The draft, which doesn't appear to have been a particularly strong one for the Chargers, must come through beyond expectations.

Last year, the San Francisco 49ers thought they had the best team in football. Until they were ambushed by the Vikings in an N.F.C. play-off game, the stats showed that they were probably right: best regular season record (13--2), first in the N.F.L. in total offense (399.1 yards per game) and total defense (273 yards per game), most points scored (459) and fewest giveaways (26). But head coach Bill Walsh is never content to stand pat. Remember, he's the guy who had the foresight to acquire Steve Young, one of the best backup Q.B.s in the league. Before the draft this year, the 49ers listed their priorities as wide receiver and defensive lineman, in that order. They made a deal with the Raiders that brought them wide receiver Dokie Williams, then drafted University of Miami defensive end Daniel Stubbs. That sort of logic year after year is what keeps the 49ers at the top of the league.

Keys to winning: The only questions about the 49yrs are on defense. The linebacking could be thin if Keena Turner can't come back from knee surgery. The defensive backfield could use a healthy Eric Wright, who hasn't played much the past two seasons because of injuries. Finally, the 49ers must guard against their number-one nemesis: overconfidence.

In a year that left a lot of fans feeling shortchanged, the folks down in New Orleans had a party that lasted from September to December. The Saints, who had never had a winning season in their 20-year history, marched to a 12--3 record and their first play-off appearance. They are good at a lot of positions but do not dominate at any. Until last year, even most diehard football fans would have had a hard time naming more than a couple of Saints players. What they lack in big names they make up for with teamwork.

Keys to winning: Running back Reuben Mayes, who tore knee ligaments in last year's wild-card game, must return to peak form. Craig "Ironhead" Heyward, the 251-pound fullback who was the Saints' first draft pick this year, will have to live up to his nickname.

If the Los Angeles Rams couldn't get to the Super Bowl with Eric Dickerson, the best running back in football, how can they get there without him? Only time will tell if the plethora of picks they garnered in the Dickerson deal will take them where Eric couldn't. The Rams still have a strong rushing game with Pro Bowlers Jackie Slater and Doug Smith up front and Charles White in the backfield. However, speedball receiver--kick returner Ron Brown opted for early retirement when he couldn't get the contract he wanted.

Keys to winning: The Rams need intensity on defense, where they gave up 1000 yards more than the 49ers did last year. Quarterback Jim Everett, who has shown brilliance on occasion, needs those occasions more consistently.

Somebody has to be on the bottom, and unfortunately for the Atlanta Falcons, it's still their turn. Coach Marion Campbell's immediate job is to prevent them from having the worst record in the N.F.L. They need help almost everywhere. They got some at linebacker when they drafted the number-one pick, Aundray Bruce, from Auburn. Marcus Cotton, another linebacker, picked in the second round, could wind up being as good as Bruce. Quarterback Chris Miller needs time to mature.

Keys to winning: Use their future high draft picks wisely and plan for the future.

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This year, the N.F.C. East will be pro football's strongest division from top to bottom. It has produced the past two Super Bowl champions, and the Philadelphia Eagles are one of the most improved teams in the N.F.L. The only thing the teams in the N.F.C. East have going against them is that they have to play one another twice.

Buddy Ryan, of the Philadelphia Eagles, is the kind of coach who challenges, confronts, pressures and, if necessary, ridicules his players in order to motivate. He knows how to get in their heads and under their skin. But he also aligns himself with his players in an us-against-them mentality. During last year's strike, Ryan disdained the scab games, siding with the regular players. The short-term effect was three losses for the Eagles by what was probably the worst scab team in football. The long-term effect was an even closer emotional bond between Ryan and his players. The Eagles enter this season with good talent and superior motivation.

The center of the Eagles' offense is quarterback Randall Cunningham, who only a couple of years ago was regarded by many in the N.F.L. as not the stuff quarterbacks are made of. He was considered inconsistent, not a player who could handle the clutch situation. Two seasons ago, Ryan experimented with an unusual platoon system in which Cunningham played only on third-down situations. Says Cunningham, "The pressure Ryan put on me was more intense than that of the game. But he made me realize I could play with pressure and succeed." Last year, the Eagles averaged 25.2 points per game.

Keys to winning: The Eagles have to do a better job of running the ball. If Keith Byars can have a healthy season, their rushing should improve. Number-one pick Keith Jackson is a tight end who will be compared to Kellen Winslow. On defense, Reggie White, the best pass rusher in the N.F.L. last season (21 sacks), needs only to continue what he has been doing.

If you take the best team from last year, the Super Bowl champion Washington Redskins, and add an All Pro linebacker, you're a cinch to repeat as S.B. champ, right? Wrong. First of all, your opponents are motivated, because you're the team to beat. Also, it's never quite as much fun to climb the mountain the second time. And then there's that All Pro linebacker Wilber Marshall. Sure, he's a great player, and general manager Bobby Beathard was an awfully clever guy to figure out that the Chicago Bears didn't have the nerve and the money to match the Redskins' offer for the unsigned and thus available Marshall. But the guy is getting $6,000,000 for five years, guaranteed. That's more than $22,000 per tackle, based on the rate at which he tackled last year (53 solos). A lot of the other Redskins now have arithmetic on their mind. And they're not happy. And not happy does not win Super Bowls.

Keys to winning: Marshall must play great from minute one, plus be the world's most likable guy. The Doug Williams--Jay Schroeder quarterback controversy has to be a positive, not a negative, factor.

Has a team ever had a worse Super Bowl hangover than the New York Giants? The Bears started things off by pounding them 34--19 on Monday-night-TV's season opener. It was downhill from there. Five weeks into the season, the Super Bowl champs of the 1986 season were history. In fact, they wound up with more books published by players and coaches than wins.

As the Bears can testify, it's hard to find the edge again once you've lost it. The Giants still have most of the players from their Super Bowl year, though left tackle Brad Benson retired and right tackle Karl Nelson, his Hodgkin's disease in remission, is trying to make a comeback. The Giants drafted to fill those holes, and fill them they did, with Eric Moore (296 pounds) and John "Jumbo" Elliott (305 pounds).

Keys to winning: Head coach Bill Par-cells must mix the ingredients again and hope that he comes up with the right chemistry. The Giants still need a backup for running back Joe Morris. On defense, linebacker Harry Carson and lineman George Martin will need to take a sip from the fountain of youth.

Winning develops pride, and since the Dallas Cowboys have done a lot of winning over the years, they have more than the usual share. That pride has made the past two seasons hard for the Cowboys to swallow. Two years ago, they sent their supporters a letter at the end of the season, apologizing for their disappointing performance and promising to do better next year. However, the Cowboys' problems--too much age at some positions and not enough talent at others--were too pervasive to be solved in one year.

Coach Tom Landry, at last realizing the full extent of the Cowboys' weaknesses, has made a commitment to youth, particularly in the offensive line, where he played rookies Daryle Smith and Kevin Gogan, even though he admitted they were still green. The Cowboys have also made a commitment to bulk, with players such as defensive lineman Danny Noonan (270 pounds), Nate Newton (327 pounds) and Jeff Zimmerman (slimmed down to 310 pounds).

Keys to winning: Steve Pelluer has to show that he can be the Cowboys' number-one quarterback, so that Landry can stop vacillating between him and veteran Danny White. With Tony Dorsett traded to Denver, Herschel Walker, the number-one all-purpose back in the N.F.L., will be an even more dominant force on offense.

Ornithologists, take note. There's a new species of cardinal inhabiting the South-west. The football Cardinals, hatched in Chicago, have migrated to Phoenix after a 28-year layover in St. Louis. They were a bona fide offensive success last season, led by quarterback Neil Lomax (more than 3000 yards passing) and wide receiver J. T. Smith (91 catches, 1117 yards, tops in the N.F.L.). Only San Francisco and Washington had better offensive productions. The problem with the Cardinals is that they were also near the top of the league in most yards and points allowed.

Keys to winning: Some of the Cards' draft picks on the defensive side will have to develop quickly, particularly number-one choice Ken Harvey, a linebacker from the University of California. The team must adjust to its new environment, since moving a franchise is always unsettling--new homes, new routines, new climate.

The Minnesota Vikings have been living in the shadow of the Chicago Bears for the past few years. This year, the sun is going to shine in Minnesota. The extent of the steadily improving football fortunes of the Vikings was clearly evident in last season's play-offs, when they trounced the Saints, surprised the 49ers and came within one play of forcing the Redskins into overtime in the N.F.C. championship game.

On offense, Minnesota has two quality quarterbacks (Wade Wilson and Tommy Kramer), a group of excellent running backs (Darrin Nelson, D. J. Dozier and Alfred Anderson) and, at wide receiver, the little magician, Anthony Carter. The defense, led by end Chris Doleman, is solid.

Keys to winning: Coach Jerry Burns has to juggle the egos of his two quarterbacks ever so delicately. The Vikes must find a solution to their punting problems, since neither Greg Coleman nor Bucky Scribner could get the job done consistently last season. Finally, they must overcome the mental advantage the Bears have had the past couple of years, when they allowed Chicago to win games it shouldn't have.

In the past four years, the Chicago Bears have won more games (50) than any other N.F.L. team. They've also brought home four Central Division titles, one Super Bowl ring and more TV ads than Brent Musburger has superlatives. If the Bears haven't been America's team, they've certainly been the media's team. In the forefront is Mike Ditka, pro football's P.T. Barnum. Whenever things begin to get dull, Ditka roller-skates through the halls of the Bears' front office for the cameras, criticizes the Fridge's wife for overfeeding him, spits at an official or hits somebody in the head with a wad of gum. When Chicago had the best talent in football, the antics of Ditka and the Bears were funny. It remains to be seen who will get the last laugh this year.

The Bears will miss the talent and character of the great one, Walter Payton. They will also miss Wilber Marshall, who defected to the Redskins. Marshall was a big part of Chicago's aggressive style of defense. The team is still plenty good, but age and a lack of hunger are starting to show.

Keys to winning: The Bears need a healthy Jim McMahon to be in the race. Neal Anderson, who has the unenviable job of trying to fill Payton's shoes, must not let the pressure get to him. Veteran Dan Hampton, the mainstay of the Bears' defensive line, has to stay injury-free.

At Green Bay, it may finally be time to stop thinking about the way things were and concentrate on how things are going to be. Forrest Gregg, the last reminder of the Vince Lombardi glory days, has gone back to his alma mater, SMU, to rebuild its football program. The new Packers' coach is Lindy Infante, the former Cleveland Browns offensive coordinator. Infante has the kind of football smarts and style to finally get the Pack back to the top. What he doesn't have at Green Bay is a great quarterback like Bernie Kosar. He'll have to choose among Randy Wright, Don Majkowski and Robbie Bosco, the BYU phenom who has spent most of his pro career on injured reserve.

Keys to winning: Infante will have to work some magic to come up with the right quarterback from the three available candidates. The Pack has a potentially awesome running duo in Kenneth Davis and Brent Fullwood; that is, if Fullwood can get his act together.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers make no secret about it: Vinny Testaverde is the franchise. Coach Ray Perkins has traded veteran Steve DeBerg to Kansas City. Now it's Vinny or nothing. And as the young quarterback improves, so will the Bucs. In the meantime, Perkins has the job of trying to teach the N.F.L.'s youngest team (average age, 25) how to play together, particularly on defense. If they can continue to use their draft picks wisely and Perkins and the Tampa Bay fans remain patient, the Bucs and Testaverde will be a team for the Nineties.

Keys to winning: The defense must improve, particularly on the line, where defensive end Ron Holmes is the only consistent pass rusher. The Bucs also need a wide receiver, a punter and better play from their special teams. Perkins will have to protect Testaverde from situations that can erode his playing confidence.

The Detroit Lions finally did something smart last year. Instead of firing their coach, the usual tactic for a team that loses too often, they hired a new player-personnel man and told him to acquire better talent for the coach, Darryl Rogers, to work with. The personnel man is Jerry Vainisi, who was the general manager of the Bears from 1983 to 1986, and who is highly regarded by his peers. At this year's draft, he did what he was supposed to do. He landed Bennie Blades, the best defensive back available in the draft, and then picked up linebacker Chris Spielman, a future Pro Bowler. Vainisi has some years of rebuilding ahead of him; but at least the process has started.

Keys to winning: Chuck Long, the Lions' quarterback of the future, must continue to improve. While the Lions have an adequate offensive line, they need a running game to go behind it. Defensive end Reggie Rogers, the Lions' first pick in last year's draft, has to overcome his personal problems and play football up to his considerable potential.

This Season's Winners

A.F.C. Eastern Division............Indianapolis Colts

A.F.C. Central Division............Cleveland Browns

A.F.C. Western Division............Los Angeles Raiders

Wild Cards............Denver Broncos Houston Oilers

A.F.C. Champion • Cleveland Browns

N.F.C. Eastern Division............Philadelphia Eagles

N.F.C. Central Division............Minnesota Vikings

N.F.C. Western Division............San Francisco 49ers

Wild Cards............Washington Redskins New York Giants

N.F.C. Champion • San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl Champion Cleveland Browns

Playboy's 1988 Pre-Season All-Pro Team

Offense

Bernie Kosar, Cleveland............Quarterback

Eric Dickerson, Indianapolis............Running Back

Herschel Walker, Dallas............Running Back

Jerry Rice, San Francisco............Wide Receiver

J. T. Smith, Phoenix............Wide Receiver

Mark Bavaro, New York Giants............Tight End

Anthony Muñoz, Cincinnati............Tackle

Gary Zimmerman, Minnesota............Tackle

Bill Fralic, Atlanta............Guard

Mike Munchak, Houston............Guard

Ray Donaldson, Indianapolis............Center

Defense

Bruce Smith, Buffalo............End

Chris Doleman, Minnesota............End

Reggie White, Philadelphia............Tackle

Mike Singletary, Chicago............Inside Linebacker

Fredd Young, Seattle............Inside Linebacker

Andre Tippett, New England............Outside Linebacker

Carl Banks, New York Giants............Outside Linebacker

Darrell Green, Washington............Cornerback

Hanford Dixon, Cleveland............Cornerback

Joey Browner, Minnesota............Safety

Ronnie Lott, San Francisco............Safety

Specialties

Morten Andersen, New Orleans............Place Kicker

Jim Arnold, Detroit............Punter

Vai Sikahema, Phoenix............Kick Returner

Vince Albritton, Dallas............Special Teams

Rookie of the Year

Michael Irvin, Dallas............Wide Receiver

Central Division

American Football Conference

Cleveland Browns.......... 12--4

Houston Oilers.......... 10--6

Pittsburgh Steelers.......... 7--9

Cincinnati Bengals.......... 6--10

Eastern Division

American Football Conference

Indianapolis Colts.......... 10--6

Buffalo Bills.......... 8--8

New England Patriots.......... 8--8

Miami Dolphins.......... 8--8

New York Jets.......... 5--11

Western Division

American Football Conference

Los Angeles Raiders.......... 10--6

Denver Broncos.......... 9--7

Seattle Seahawks.......... 7--9

Kansas City Chiefs.......... 7--9

San Diego Chargers.......... 5--11

Western Division

National Football Conference

San Francisco 49ers.......... 12--4

New Orleans Saints.......... 9--7

Los Angeles Rams.......... 7--9

Atlanta Falcons.......... 3--13

Eastern Division

National Football Conference

Philadelphia Eagles.......... 11--5

Washington Redskins.......... 10--6

New York Giants.......... 10--6

Dallas Cowboys.......... 7--9

Phoenix Cardinals.......... 6--10

Central Division

National Football Conference

Minnesota Vikings.......... 11--5

Chicago Bears.......... 9--7

Green Bay Packers.......... 7--9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers.......... 6--10

Detroit Lions.......... 4--12