Playboy's Pro Football Forecast

Super Bowl XXIII, three minutes, ten seconds left in the game, Cincinnati up 16--13, San Francisco with the ball on its own eight-yard line. Are the 49ers worried? Nah! After all, they have the best wide receiver who has ever played the game in Jerry Rice. And they have Mr. Clutch, Joe Montana, the guy who has been bringing teams back since his peewee-league days.

So often, potential Super Bowl magic turns out to be all hype and no drama, games more memorable for their commercials than for the final minutes. Not on this day, because Joe Cool is at the helm. Piece by little piece, he takes apart Cincinnati's zone coverage and unlikely dream. Eight yards, seven yards, then seven again. With the game on the line and the ball on the Cincinnati ten, Montana finds John Taylor uncovered over the middle and hits him for a touchdown. It's San Francisco's third Super Bowl ring in eight years and leaves Montana 34 seconds to rehearse "I'm going to Disney World."

Montana may not have proved that he's the best big-game quarterback ever, but then, he's not finished. Cincinnati receiver Cris Collinsworth summed up Montana's performance best: "Joe Montana is not human. I don't want to call him a god, but he's definitely somewhere in between."

Happily, fans whose reason for living ended with Montana's heroics had plenty of off-season action to keep them awake till fall. In fact, four events took place that changed the face of professional football.

Start with the patriarch of coaches over the past two and a half decades, Tom Landry, who was hustled out of Dallas and into the sunset by new Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, a feisty Arkansas millionaire who cracked heads as a player for the Razorbacks when offensive guards weighed only 185 pounds. Simultaneously, Jones brought in former Arkansas teammate Jimmy Johnson, he of the perfect hair and almost perfect record at the University of Miami (51--9) these past five years, to bring law and order and some wins to an America's team only a shadow of its former self.

Next, in a move that surprised even his closest friends, Pete Rozelle, the man most responsible for the wildly successful mating of pro football and television, stepped down after 29 years as N.F.L. commissioner. The man had made his mark. It was Rozelle who persuaded the owners to split TV revenues equally, thus creating league stability and economic fortune; Rozelle who oversaw the merger of the A.F.L. with the N.F.L. and the inception of the Super Bowl; Rozelle who convinced Roone Arledge at Abc that football belonged in Monday-night prime time. And to think that it took the league 23 ballots back in 1960 to settle on compromise candidate Rozelle, then a 33-year-old PR man.

He quit, finally, "to spend more free time and stressless time" with his family. And who can blame him, after endless strife with the players' union and a decade-long legal squabble between the league office and Raiders owner Al Davis?

Then 229 players changed partners in the N.F.L.'s version of a Chinese fire drill. That's more guys than quarterback Custer had with him when the Seventh Cav played Sitting Bull State. When the league decided to short-circuit a lawsuit by the players' union by allowing each team to protect 37 players and give free agency to everyone else, no one imagined that more than a third of the unprotected players would actually switch uniforms.

The move, referred to as Plan B, probably benefited the weaker teams such as Green Bay (20 players signed), who helped themselves to the leftovers of talent-rich franchises such as Houston (15 players lost). It most definitely benefited the players who switched, a mostly mediocre crowd, who signed contracts for approximately 72 percent more than they were paid in 1988. Can Gary Hogeboom, who went from Indianapolis to Phoenix, really be worth $3,400,000 over four years?

Finally, back in Dallas, Texas E. Schramm, the president and general manager of the Cowboys and the second-most powerful man in the N.F.L., handed in his badge after deciding there wasn't enough room in town for both himself and new owner Jones. It was Schramm who had originally pushed Rozelle for commissioner, who sat on the powerful rules committee and who, along with Rozelle, recognized the potential of pro football on television. It was no accident that Dallas became America's team. Schramm engineered it, along with five Super Bowl appearances, for his beloved Cowboys.

Schramm left Dallas to take on the challenge of organizing the N.F.L.'s new International Football League, a developmental probe to test the viability of expanding into foreign markets. Never mind the outcome; Gil Brandt, the Cowboys' former director of player personnel and another victim of Jones's house cleaning, knows where Schramm's heart lies: "Tex will always wear a Cowboys star on his sleeve."

There were also a few less historic changes in the off season. Steroids are out; the instant replay is still in. All players will be tested for anabolic steroids and masking agents during a seven-to-ten-day period at the start of training camp. A positive test will result in a minimum 30-day suspension. A second positive test will result in a ban for the remainder of the season, including all post-season games. The use of the instant replay as an officiating aid was extended one more year by an owners' vote of 24--4.

And now, before any more N.F.L. legends resign or are fired, or the Redskins take off their paint to become Cowboys, let's take to the field to pick the winners.

When we predicted last year that the Philadelphia Eagles would win the N.F.C. East, we had no idea that a Buddy Ryan--coached team could finish dead last out of 28 teams in pass defense. It did, and the Eagles won the division anyway.

The credit goes to quarterback Randall Cunningham and N.F.L. Rookie of the Year Keith Jackson, who set an Eagles receiving record with 81 catches. Some credit also goes to the Washington Redskins and the New York Giants, who couldn't get their acts together.

Ryan says the Eagles are only eight players and a year's experience from being able to play with the big boys. Never believe Ryan's public expectations for his team. He won't be satisfied with anything less than a Super Bowl win.

Cunningham is talented enough to lead the Eagles anywhere except into a Soldier Field fog bowl with the Chicago Bears, as happened last season in the Eagles' first and only play-off game since 1981. Mike Quick is completely recovered from the broken leg that sidelined him for eight games in the middle of last season.

Ryan found a jewel at linebacker when the Bears left Al Harris unprotected under Plan B. The acquisition of Harris allows Ryan to shift another former Bear, Tbdd Bell, to strong safety.

Keys to winning: Assuming the Eagles have signed defensive end Reggie White, the N.F.L.'s leading pass rusher (18 sacks), by the beginning of the season, Ryan's biggest problem will be improving the play of the Eagles' cornerbacks. A year of experience should help Eric Allen, who got burned too often in his rookie season.

The Washington Redskins are second only to San Francisco in winning percentage (.687) since 1981, when Joe Gibbs took over as coach. But they weren't immune from Super Bowl--champs disease last season, when they slumped to 7--9 and failed to make the play-offs. "It was no fun," understated Gibbs, who pointed to injuries, turnovers (their takeaway--giveaway ratio was the worst in the league) and an inconsistent running game.

The Redskins obtained running back Gerald Riggs from Atlanta, which scared Eagles coach Ryan into ungraciously quipping, "He's almost as old as I am." Actually, Riggs is only 28 but probably does have most of his yards gained behind him.

Doug Williams and Mark Rypien will battle for the starting-quarterback job. Look for Jamie Morris, a welcome surprise at running back, to get more playing time.

Keys to winning: With Dave Butz's retirement, the Redskins have a huge hole to fill on defense. Charles Mann must bounce back from a subpar year. Gibbs should go with the younger Rypien at quarterback over the oft-injured Williams.

Did the New York Giants play over their heads three years ago when they dominated the opposition en route to the Super Bowl? Or were they a great team that got a little too old, a little too complacent and lost the chemistry?

After their Super Bowl--hangover season in 1987, the Giants appeared to be on the rise again last year. But a closer look reveals a cream-puff schedule and only one victim (New Orleans) that finished the year with a winning record.

And things don't appear to be improving. Linebacker Lawrence Taylor, once the scourge of the league, now dominates only occasionally. Both linebacker Harry Carson and defensive end George Martin have retired. And age and injury have slowed safeties Kenny Hill and Terry Kinard.

On offense, quarterback Phil Simms is at the peak of his game. But the running attack relies too much on 5'7", 195-pound Joe Morris. Tight end Mark Bavaro will try to return to his All Pro form after a disappointing season marred by a lengthy contract holdout.

The most courageous battle to be fought this year by any Giant is that of tackle Karl Nelson, fighting a recurrence of Hodgkin's disease. He'll miss the season.

Keys to winning: The Giants need a super effort from the defense, particularly from Taylor and veteran linemen Leonard Marshall and Jim Burt. The beefy but inexperienced offensive line has to protect Simms and open some big holes for little Joe. And someone has to figure out where the magic went.

If it weren't for the stars on their helmets, you'd have a hard time recognizing the Dallas Cowboys. Gone is the implacable one in the porkpie hat, Tom Landry; gone is the most powerful pro football executive of the past 29 years, Tex Schramm; gone is Gil Brandt, the man who, as player personnel director, created the computer scouting methods that all other teams eventually copied.

Gone also are Cowboys stalwarts Randy White, Doug Cosbie and, of course, as of last year, Tony Dorsett. Only a few fossils remain, the most notable being Ed "Too Tall" Jones, returning for an unbelievable 15th season.

The new Cowboys will be the creation of the fusion between owner Jerry Jones and coach Jimmy Johnson. But they'll benefit from last year's poor finish, which netted the player Landry and Brandt had wished but dared not hope for: quarterback Troy Aikman. Brandt put it simply: "Aikman's got the best arm to come out since John Elway's."

The new Cowboys will also have the old Herschel Walker, and with a conference-leading total of 1514 yards, that ain't bad. Last year's number-one pick, wide receiver Michael Irvin, will benefit from rejoining Johnson, who coached him at Miami.

Johnson faces an ideal situation, since the Cowboys are unlikely to do worse than their 3--13 mark of last season. In fact, the Cowboys, who lost five games last year by three points or fewer, weren't really quite as bad as their record. Give Johnson three years to build his own winning tradition.

Keys to winning: While Aikman has been getting all the press, quarterback Steve Pelluer will probably be the Cowboys' starter. He'll need to get off to a good start to avoid the temptation to rush Aikman. The Cowboys must improve their take-away--giveaway ratio (--21) and cut down on penalties.

If you're looking for a sure bet, put some dough on Phoenix Cardinals quarterback Neil Lomax' not making it through the 16-game schedule. Lomax, one of the best passers in pro football, is dogged by an arthritic hip and a bad knee. When he is healthy, the Cardinals are almost a contender. They were 7--4 after 11 games last season, until Lomax went down and the bottom fell out.

Recognizing Lomax' vulnerability, the Cardinals picked up unprotected free agent Gary Hogeboom from Indianapolis. Even if Hogeboom can fill in adequately for Lomax, Phoenix has some other problems. The combined age of its two outstanding wide receivers, Roy Green and J. T. Smith, is 65. And at the end of last season, Earl Ferrell was the Cardinals' only healthy, productive running back.

On defense, end Freddie Joe Nunn had 14 sacks, second among N.F.L. linemen. But the linebacking corps is questionable and there is little depth at the corners.

Keys to winning: The Cardinals have to hope Lomax can limp through the entire schedule or that Hogeboom can fill in. Linebacker Eric Hill, taken as the tenth over-all pick, needs to step in as a starter, and Ricky Hunley must finally play up to his pro potential.

The Minnesota Vikings have a different kind of quarterback problem. For most teams, the Q.B. quandary is who. For the Vikings, it's which one. Last season, Wade Wilson started, was relieved by Tommy Kramer after a loss to Buffalo in the opener, only to regain the job after game seven. The problem with this kind of tag-team match is that your team starts to resemble Family Feud.

The result for the Vikings was inconsistency, exhibited by their inability to concentrate on their weaker opponents. A loss to the Packers in week 15 cost Minnesota the Central Division championship.

The Vikings have enough talent to take them all the way to the Super Bowl if coach Jerry Burns can solve the Q.B. problem.

The Vikings defensive front of Keith Millard, Henry Thomas and Chris Dole-man ranks with the best of any in the league. One nagging question is the status of defensive end Doug Martin, sidelined toward the end of last season with a knee injury.

The Vikings improved their linebacking corps by trading their number-one draft pick next year to Pittsburgh for Mike Merriweather, a talented but unhappy Steeler who sat out last season in a contract dispute. Another Minnesota strength is their wide receivers, led by Anthony Carter.

Keys to winning: The Vikings need the healthy return of Martin and linebacker Jesse Solomon. Burns must solve the quarterback question decisively and early. The Central Division is a toss-up between the Vikings and the Bears, with the winner likely to be the team that fares best against the weaker divisional rivals.

Last season, Chicago Bears coach Mike Ditka crossed the line from man to living legend. He coached the Bears to their fifth consecutive Central Division title after they lost Walter Payton, Wilbur Marshall and Willie Gault, and after injuries sidelined key players such as Jimbo Covert and Richard Dent. Of course, this is no mere mortal; this is Iron Mike, a guy who takes only a week off in the middle of the season for a heart attack, never losing his competitive edge or sense of humor.

Ditka has surrounded himself with players who mirror his rather aggressive view of life. Linebacker Mike Singletary, after six Pro Bowls, hasn't lost the drive that saw him break three helmets during his career at Baylor. Dan Hampton and Steve McMichael, Chicago's veteran defensive linemen, still toss around motorcycle-gang members and offensive linemen when the mood hits them.

But as Ditka well knows, yesterday's victories aren't worth two tickets to Tom Landry's farewell dinner. And for all the Bears' ferocity, they've faltered three times short of their goal since Super Bowl XX. "They don't give accolades to runners-up," sayeth Ditka.

The Bears shunned the free-agent market and managed to lose linebackers Al Harris and Otis Wilson and corner-back Mike Richardson. However, three number-one draft choices will help dull the pain. The Bears picked up Donnell Woolford, who should make everyone forget Richardson, and Trace Armstrong, Hampton's likely successor.

As Singletary says, "The Bears can't survive without conflict." The conflict of the moment is who will play quarterback--Jim McMahon or Mike Tomczak. McMahon's propensity for injury has nullified his great leadership qualities; Tomczak is less spectacular but more dependable.

Keys to winning: McMahon's re-emergence as star quarterback and team leader could help the Bears go all the way. A more likely scenario has Tomczak leading a Bears team that will win plenty of games, mostly with an intimidating defense, but fail to surpass the team that lost to Montana and the 49ers in the N.F.C. title game.

Becoming a competitive football team has proved a matter of step by tiny step for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The process of watching a young team mature can be a painful one. Vinny Testaverde, heralded as the savior of the franchise, managed one N.F.L. record last season: passes completed to the opposition (35). But Testaverde is a great talent and will finally sort out which jerseys belong to which team.

The Bucs' defense improved dramatically against the rush (second in the N.F.L.), only to finish 26th against the pass. Young players make mistakes, and Tampa Bay had 17 rookies on last season's roster.

The Bucs need some sort of pass rush from their linebackers. Winston Moss, whose strength is supposed to be his quickness, did not record a single sack last season. Look for something different from this year's number-one draft pick, Broderick Thomas.

The wide-receiver duo of Bruce Hill and Mark Carrier combined for more than 2000 yards, but the Bucs still need a deep threat. Second-round pick Danny Peebles may fill the need.

Keys to winning: Testaverde has to come of age. Running back James Wilder needs to return to form after missing nine games last season with a knee injury. The pass rush must come from Thomas or elsewhere. Coach Ray Perkins and the patient Bucs fans may finally see the Bucs begin to turn the corner this season.

One comforting thought for Detroit Lions fans and new coach Wayne Fontes is that the Lions probably can't sink much lower. Last season, they were the worst offensive team in football, beating only the likes of Atlanta, Kansas City and Green Bay (twice). The club languished under the uninspired coaching of Darryl Rogers, who was asked to leave at the 2--9 point, the ineffective quarterbacking of Chuck Long and a team attitude that was, at best, quiescent.

But Fontes, who got rid of the "interim" moniker during the off season, has hired a colorful coaching staff (Woody Widenhofer from Missouri, Frank Gansz from the Chiefs and offensive specialist Mouse Davis) and promises to field a more entertaining, if not better, team.

To start things off, Fontes and the Lions took Heisman Trophy winner Barry Sanders with the third pick in the first round of the draft. Sanders has the speed, balance and intelligence that should make him one of the game's true stars.

In the sixth round, the Lions picked up a steal in quarterback Rodney Peete, downgraded by most N.F.L. teams because of a weak showing in the N.F.L. combined workout. Peete could fit nicely into Detroit's new "Silver Stretch," Mouse Davis' version of the run and shoot, which calls for a mobile quarterback to throw short.

Finally, the Lions picked up some team speed in free agents Mel Gray and Bobby Joe Edmonds.

Keys to winning: Detroit is still missing several key ingredients on offense and defense, but players such as Sanders and last season's rookie sensations linebacker Chris Spielman and free safety Bennie Blades should enable the Lions to pull a few upsets.

For the Green Bay Packers, the Plan B free-agency system was like the blue-light special at K mart. The Pack, lacking talent on both sides of the line of scrimmage, signed 20 free agents, the most of any team in the N.F.L. Executive vice-president Tom Braatz explained, "Some teams were cost-cutters. Others already had good football teams." Neither was the case for Braatz and the Packers, who spent $850,000 on bonuses and committed $5,400,000 on free-agent contracts.

Unfortunately for coach Linday Infante, the man they used to call an "offensive genius" when he was the offensive coordinator for the Cleveland Browns, none of the free agents was a quarterback, and the only Q.B. the Packers picked up in the draft, Anthony Dilweg, is projected as a punter, not a passer. Which leaves Infante with quarterbacks Don Majkowski and Randy Wright, neither of whom significantly distinguished himself last season.

Infante's problems don't stop there. Brent Fullwood, Green Bay's number-one pick a year ago, gained only 483 yards on 101 attempts. Not exactly a steam-roller ground attack. The Packers have little to commend them on defense other than linebacker Tim Harris, a household name if he were with any other franchise.

Of course, the Packers did get Michigan State offensive tackle Tony Mandarich (see story on page 67). Mandarich, already with a Sports Illustrated cover to his credit, will be either the prototype lineman of the Nineties or the biggest bust since Rob Lowe's singing career.

Keys to winning: Infante must find a quarterback around whom to build his offense. The Packers will be looking to next year's draft for the solution. The only other hope for the Pack this year is to schedule more games with the Vikings, who, for some reason, play patsy for Green Bay (2--0 over the Vikings last season).

A cardinal rule of pro football prediction is never pick a Super Bowl champion to repeat. The Pittsburgh Steelers were the last team to turn the trick, in 1979 and 1980. Besides Pittsburgh, only the Washington Redskins have been back (continued on page 78)Pro Football Forecast(continued from page 70) to the Super Bowl following a win--in 1983, when they lost to the Raiders 38--9. In the past five years, no Super Bowl champ has won even a play-off game the following year; the last two teams, the New York Giants and the Washington Redskins, didn't even make the play-offs.

And yet, consider the San Francisco 49ers. They have the best big-game quarterback maybe ever in Joe Montana. Their number-two quarterback, Steve Young, is good enough to be most teams' number one. Then there's Jerry Rice, the wide receiver without peer. And Roger Craig, Ronnie Lott, Michael Carter, all as good as or better than anyone else in the league at their positions.

But while the talent on the field will all return, the brain on the sideline has moved upstairs. Bill Walsh, the self-effacing coaching genius, resigned four days after his third Super Bowl win of the decade, ensuring that he wouldn't suffer the fate of legends such as Tom Landry and Chuck Noll, who lingered too long. The unenviable job of replacing Walsh falls to former 49er defensive coordinator George Seifert.

Keys to winning: The 49ers have all the keys except, perhaps, the magic one, the luck to do it twice in a row. If Montana and Rice stay healthy, if Seifert can avoid looking over his shoulder, if the 49ers can replace tight end John Frank and center Randy Cross, who have both retired, maybe lightning can strike twice. But don't count on it.

The Los Angeles Rams remain a bit of an enigma: great talent, good coaching, little success in post-season play. In fact, they haven't made it to the Super Bowl since Terry Bradshaw and the Steelers cleaned their clock in Super Bowl XIV

Several years ago, they switched strategy, abandoning the one-dimensional offense that featured Eric Dickerson for a more varied attack, with quarterback Jim Everett and speed receivers Henry El-lard, Ron Brown and last year's first draft choice Aaron Cox. The gamble appears to be paying off. The Rams had the third-best passing offense in the N.F.L. measured by yards gained.

Running back Charles White, suspended for part of the season for substance abuse, has retired. Greg Bell, who stepped in to gain 1212 yards last year, had the starting job won anyway. The Rams are hoping for a better showing from second-year backs Robert Delpino and Gaston Green.

On defense, the Rams are a bit suspect.The line will rely on free agents Shawn Miller and Alvin Wright, plus defensive end Doug Reed. The linebacking is just adequate. The Rams have two excellent corners in Jerry Gray and LeRoy Irvin.

Keys to winning: The Rams, with five picks in the first two rounds of this year's draft, went heavily for defense. They have to hope that at least two of the players, particularly defensive end Bill Hawkins, break into the starting line-up. The Rams are well on their way to building a team that will contend in the Nineties. This year may be a struggle, however, as the Rams play 11 opponents who had .500 or better records last season.

The New Orleans Saints had them dancing in the streets through week 12 of last season as they sported a two-game lead in the N.F.C. West. However, a 45--3 drubbing by the Vikings two weeks later revealed their weaknesses, and by season's end, the Saints had gone marchin' out of even a play-off spot.

The cold reality of that late collapse is certain to haunt coach Jim Mora and general manager Jim Finks as they ready their team to take on the improving competition in the West. The Saints banked last year on running back Craig "Iron-head" Heyward, picked in the first round, and wide receiver Brett Perri-man, taken in the second. Heyward missed four games because of a knee injury and didn't play very well when he was healthy. Perriman didn't contribute much either.

Quarterback Bobby Hebert has a lot of spunk but few downfield receivers to throw to. The running-back tandem of Dalton Hilliard and Reuben Mayes would be helped by a good year from Heyward.

The Saints' biggest headache is on the defensive line. All but three of their defensive linemen were unprotected under Plan B and no one even extended an offer to any of them. Linebackers Pat Swilling and Vaughan Johnson are underrated. Both have speed and the ability to rush the passer.

Keys to winning: Because they were so desperate for a defensive lineman, the Saints may have reached a bit when they selected Wayne Martin from Arkansas on the 19th pick of the first round. Martin must crack the starting line-up and several other defensive players will need to turn in career seasons to keep the music playing along Bourbon Street.

The Atlanta Falcons are in transition, the good kind, as in from lousy to competitive. After kicking around the basement of the N.F.C. West for several years, they've put a couple of good drafts together, picked up free-agent running back John Settle, who did so well (1024 yards rushing) that the Falcons traded three-time Pro Bowler Gerald Riggs to the Redskins and generally served notice to the league that a trip to Atlanta isn't a guaranteed W in the win column.

Player personnel director Ken Herock deserves much of the credit. Eleven of the 12 players from last season's draft made the team, including starting outside linebackers Aundrav Bruce and Marcus Cotton, wide receiver Michael Haynes and tight end Alex Higdon.

This year, Herock picked Deion "Prime Time" Sanders with the fifth pick in the first round. If the Falcons can sign Sanders, who threatens to become better known as the Mouth of the South, and get some of that gold off his neck, they'll have one of the best cornerbacks in football.

The Falcons remain very high on young quarterback Chris Miller, referring to him as a 23-year-old Joe Montana. Front-office hyperbole, sure, but Miller did manage 2133 yards passing, despite missing four games with an injury. Miller and Settle are helped by the presence of Pro Bowlers Bill Fralic and Mike Kenn in the offensive line.

Keys to winning: Franchises aren't turned around in one or two years, but they can be in three to five, given good drafting and consistent coaching. The Falcons are promising at a lot of spots but lack depth and thus are vulnerable to injury everywhere. Miller must live up to his press notices and the young players must continue to improve.

The Buffalo Bills are ready to make a run at the Super Bowl. And they'll get there, not on the arm of quarterback Jim Kelly but on the hard-nosed play of some defensive-line veterans and the best group of linebackers in the N.F.L.

Move over, Mike Singletary and Lawrence Taylor, because the toughest (and the fastest) kid on the linebacking block is Cornelius Bennett. And Shane Conlan isn't far behind. They'll be backing up Art Still, Fred Smerlas and Bruce Smith, who all add up to a dominating defense. In fact, the Bills should do even better than the A.F.C. low 237 points they allowed opponents in 1988.

Of course, you have to score points, (continued on page 138)Pro Football Forecast(continued from page 78) too, and that's where Kelly and wide receivers Andre Reed and Trumaine Johnson fit in. The Bills also got a break when they picked up running back Kenneth Davis from Green Bay during the free-agency madness.

Keys to winning: Kelly doesn't have to be the world's greatest quarterback, only one who makes few mistakes and doesn't get hurt. Still and Smerlas need to wring another season out of their aging bodies. Bruce Smith has to stay clear of the substance-abuse problem that resulted in a four-game suspension. Finally, coach Marv Levy must resist the temptation to rely on the run instead of the pass. Good passing and a great defense spell Super Bowl.

If the Indianapolis Colts hadn't stumbled coming out of the blocks last season (1--5), they would mostcertainly have made the play-offs. In fact, they finished as strong as any team in the N.F.L., with wins in eight of their last ten games.

In the off season, coach Ron Meyer hired six new assistant coaches, dropped the Colts' pursue-and-contain defense in favor of a more aggressive multiple-front philosophy and allowed Gary Hogeboom, his starting quarterback, to free-agent his way to Phoenix. Hogeboom will be replaced by the winner of the training-camp competition between Jack Trudeau and last season's rookie success Chris Chandler.

The Colts look mean on both sides of the line with All Pros Chris Hinton and Ray Donaldson on the offensiveside, Jon Hand and Donnell Thompson on the defensive front. The linebackers, led by Duane Bickett and Fredd Young, should assert themselves more in the new defensive scheme.

And, of course, the Colts have Eric. Dickerson won his fourth rushing title last year and in 1989 will likely become the first running back in N.F.L. history to have seven consecutive 1000-yard seasons.

Keys to winning: Integrate speedy wide receiver Andre Rison, the Colts' number-one draft pick, into the offense. Do a better job of protecting the quarterback to keep the Q.B.s happy, healthy and productive. Get a quick start so they don't have to play catch-up, as they did last year. And keep opening those holes up front for Eric.

Let's face it. The New England Patriots have had a complex ever since the Bears blew them out in Super Bowl XX. The Patriots, quite simply, were outmuscled. So coach Raymond Berry set the goal: "We want to be as physical as the most physical [read the Bears] N.F.C. team." On October 30, 1988, Berry got his wish. The Patriots trounced the Bears 30--7, a loss that some believe contributed to Mike Ditka's heart attack.

A good part of the Patriots' success in that game and last season was rookie running back John Stephens. Stephens, who didn't break into the starting line-up until game three, placed second in the A.F.C. in rushing, with 1168 yards. His success was aided by offensive linemen Sean Farrell, Bruce Armstrong and Ron Wooten.

If the Patriots were so physical and Stephens ran so well, how come they won only nine games? Blame a passing attack that was next to last in the N.F.L. Quarterback Tony Eason, still troubled by a separated shoulder suffered in 1987, started only two games. Doug Flutie did well enough to lead the Pats to victory against the Bears (and five other opponents), but Berry didn't trust him to throw more than the occasional pass.

Keys to winning: A healthy Ibny Eason would help tremendously. The Patriots need good rookie years from wide receiver Hart Lee Dykes and tight end Marv Cook. Aging receiver Stanley Morgan and cornerback Raymond Clayborn have to come up with one more good year each.

Everyone knows that the Miami Dolphins need defense. Yet when their first pick in the draft came around, coach Don Shula and staff opted for running back Sammie Smith. It looked like a bad move until the Bears inexplicably traded their number-one pick to Miami for the Dolphins' second- and third-round picks. Result: The Dolphins got the steal of the draft, defensive back Louis Oliver, a man with a safety's speed and a linebacker's body.

The Dolphins had already bolstered their linebacking corps with the addition of E. J. Junior from Phoenix. With All Pro linebacker John Offerdahl back and free safety Jarvis Williams, Shula rounded out his plan of restoring the luster to Miami's tarnished defensive image.

On offense, Miami continues to rely on quarterback Dan Marino and the Mark brothers, Duper and Clayton. And why not, since this trio led Miami to another season as the top passing team in the N.F.L. (4557 yards)?

Shula, however, hasn't solved all his problems. The Dolphins are still looking for a pass rush, particularly since defensive end John Bosa's knee injury. And the running game has to be brought into balance with the passing attack.

Keys to winning: The Dolphins must find a way to shore up the defensive line. Sammie Smith has to live up to his first-round billing and stay healthy. The offensive line, great at pass protection, must fire out on the rushing plays. And Miami's place kicker, Faud Reveiz, must become more consistent.

When it comes to pure entertainment, the New York Jets are tough to beat. Unfortunately, the entertainment often takes place somewhere other than on the football field. Take, for example, the Jets' offensive defensiveend Mark Gastineau. He left his wife and impregnated actress Brigitte Nielsen, not necessarily in that order. In October, he quit the team to take care of Nielsen, who reportedly had cancer. She didn't, and then they split. They have since reconciled, but Gastineau and the Jets have not. The Jets won't play Gastineau, and other teams won't trade for him because of his high salary and questionable dedication to the game.

Then there was the case of the mysterious first draft choice. The Jets, to the amusement of everyone at thedraft but their fans, took linebacker Jeff Lageman with the 14th pick in the first round-- while players such as Louis Oliver and Bill Hawkins were still on the board. Lageman, who may turn out to be a decent player, would almost certainly still have been available in round two. Oh, well, that's entertainment.

On the field, the Jets continue to be neither good nor bad. Typically, they start fast (16ndash;8 for the first four games of the season since 1983) and then fade. Last year, they won three of their first four and finished strong with victories over Indianapolis and the Giants. But in the middle of the season, they lost five of seven.

The problem for the Jets lies more with the defense than with the offense. You can't play any better than .500 with a defense that was 23rd out of 28 teams. There's some hope with young players such as linebacker Alex Gordon and 1988 Defensive Rookie of the Year Erik McMillan at free safety. But Marty Lyons is getting long in the tooth at right end and Paul Frase, who replaced Gastineau, plays the run better than the pass.

The Jets are solid at quarterback with Ken O'Brien and Pat Ryan. They have three quality running backs in Freeman McNeil, Johnny Hector and Roger Vick. And, of course, Al loon and Wesley Walker are great downfield threats.

Keys to winning: The Jets must hope they really knew something no one else did about Lageman. They must find a pass rusher for the defensive line. Does anyone know what Brigitte is up to these days?

Last year was supposed to be the Cleveland Browns' year to take it all. They had a talented and tough bunch of hungry veterans, the right coach in Marty Schotten-heimer, and they had Bernie Kosar. But a funny tiling happened on the way to the Super Bowl. Kosar hurt his elbow in week one. Replacement Gary Danielson broke his ankle. His replacement, Mike Pagel, separated his shoulder. Kosar came back only to go down in week 15 with a knee injury. And, finally, Don Strock injured his wrist in the Browns' wild-card play-off game.

The disappointment was evidently too much for owner Art Modell, who proceeded to force out Schottenheimer, one of the best coaches in the league, in a disagreement over who should be the offensive coordinator. He then hired former New York Jets defensive coordinator Bud Carson as new head coach, and Carson has brought in what may be called an aggressive sort of attitude by calling on the players "to play their asses off every game."

There were lots of new faces in training camp. The Browns lost 14 players and acquired ten in Plan B. Veteran defensive stalwart Bob Golic is gone, as well as punter Max Runager. The Browns traded linebacker Mike Junkin, a number-one pick a couple of years ago, to Kansas City. Also traded was running back Earnest Byner, who couldn't live down "the fumble" against Denver in the A.EC. championship two years ago. Cleveland's chance at the gold ring may have slipped by.

Keys to winning: The Browns have to do a better job of protecting Kosar. Wide receiver Lawyer Tillman, a second-round pick this year, will need to convert quickly to tight end to back up the aging Ozzie Newsome. Kevin Mack, a two-time Pro Bowler, will have to stay healthy, since the running-back corps is thin.

When Houston Oilers fans nicknamed the Astrodome the House of Pain, they weren't anticipating the groans that would resound from the Oilers' management during the off season, when 15 unprotected players left for greener Astroturf. The rule of Plan B is the more talent you have, the more you stand to lose. Houston, one of the N.F.L.'s most talented teams top to bottom, was a big loser.

The Chicago Bears then tried to add insult to injury by offering a five-year, $4,750,000 offer sheet to Oilers defensive end Ray Childress, Houston's protected but unsigned defensive end. New Houston general manager Mike Holovak lost no time in matching the offer and keeping Childress at home.

The Oilers' most colorful character is coach Jerry Glanville, even though he dresses only in black. Glanville regularly leaves tickets at the Oilers' box office for Elvis, loves James Dean movies and teaches his team to hustle, pursue and hit hard. The Oilers have improved each year under his direction, though they showed a disturbing inconsistency last year, being blown out by the Jets (45--3) and beaten at home by Pittsburgh (37--34).

Keys to winning: There are holes to plug at tight end and safety because of losses to free agency. The Oilers have tremendous depth at running back with Mike Rozier, Allen Pinkett, Lorenzo White and Alonzo Highsmith, but, as with most contenders, they can't afford an injury at the quarterback spot, where Warren Moon missed five games last season because of a fractured shoulder blade.

Could the Cincinnati Bengals have been that bad in 1987, when they went 4--11, or that good last year, when they murdered the opposition for the first half of the season and then hung tough to get all the way to Super Bowl XXIII? As coach Sam Wyche said, "We had our backs against the wall; much to prove, fans to regain, pride to restore and jobs to save." Boomer and the boys proved they had the N.F.L.'s most potent scoring machine (448 points, 6057 combined net yards gained) and the job they saved was Sam's.

Now the problem will be to repeat last year's performance. The Bengals still have the biggest and most ferocious offensive line in pro football, led by All Pro veterans Anthony Munoz and Max Montoya. Boomer Esiason, the N.F.L.'s M.V.P. in 1988, should be recovered from a shoulder problem that limited his effectiveness during the final games of last season. Ickey Woods, the league's best dancer, is still trying to shake off Ronnie Lott's first-quarter Super Bowl hit that effectively took him out of the game. In the meantime, James Brooks remains the Bengals' less marketable but more valuable back.

Keys to winning: Wyche will have to eschew the conservative ball-control tactics he went to late last season and let quarterback Esiason and speed receivers Eddie Brown and Tim McGee do their thing. On defense, the Bengals hope nose guard Tim Krumrie can return to form after breaking his leg and ruining everyone's Super Bowl appetite.

You'd think that a 5--11 record such as the one the Pittsburgh Steelers had last season would draw a team an easy schedule this season. But to coach Chuck Noll's dismay, the Steelers, with memories of the Bradshaw--Mean Joe Greene days growing dim, must face no fewer than eight opponents in 1989 who won ten or more games last season.

And Noll, who is well aware that coaching legends get fired just like everyone else if they fail to win, doesn't have enough talent yet to turn things around. The offensive line was thin even before center Mike Webster signed with Kansas City. The defensive line, which had only ten and a half sacks all season in 1988, didn't get any help in the draft. And linebacker Mike Merriweather was finally traded to Minnesota after a contract holdout.

Noll does have a few bright spots. Bubby Brister at quarterback, who had a decent first season as a starter, will contribute more as he matures. Number-one draft choice Tim Worley, a running back out of Georgia, will ramble. Wide receiver Louis Lipps is one of the league's best when he isn't hurt.

Keys to winning: Considering the talent and the schedule, it's unrealistic to expect very many wins from this Steelers team. Noll will have to find a way to bolster his offensive and defensive lines before the Steelers can again be competitive in the A.F.C. Central.

If the pieces fall together, the Los Angeles Raiders could be the surprise team of 1989. Second-year coach Mike Shanahan should be over his rookie jitters. And owner Al Davis is finally out of the courts and able to concentrate on football operations.

At quarterback, Jay Schroeder and Steve Beuerlein are blessed with plenty of receivers. Tim Brown, Willie Gault and James Lofton, plus Marcus Allen and Bo Jackson coming out of the backfield, give the Raiders enough talent to hold their own Super Stars competition.

The offensive line, in disarray much of last year because of injuries, looks especially improved, with the addition of free agent Dale Hellestrae.

On defense, Howie Long, hampered most of last season with a calf injury, will return, along with sack leader Greg Tbwnsend (11).

The linebackers, Matt Millen and Jerry Robinson, are both over 30. The Raiders picked up former Bear Otis Wilson, who can help tremendously if he has recovered from last season's knee injury.

Keys to winning: Hope that the Kansas City Royals don't make the play-offs so that Bo Jackson shows up while a few leaves remain on the trees. Protect the quarterback long enough to get Brown and Gault down the field. Get another year out of 36-year-old cornerback Mike Haynes.

As the Denver Broncos have learned, even if you have a franchise quarterback (John Elway) and a competent, highly competitive head coach (Dan Reeves), you don't stay on top unless you draft well. The Broncos, with back-to-back Super Bowl appearances in 1987 and 1988, fell into the middle of the heap last season at 8--8. Drafts such as last year's number-one pick, nose guard Ted Gregory, who reported to training camp 20 pounds underweight and with a limp because of an injured knee, are the reason.

Reeves has restructured his coaching staff, bringing in Wade Phillips to replace Joe Collier as defensive coordinator. But the Broncos have a talent problem on defense that no coach can solve in one season. Pass rusher Rulon Jones is 31 and Karl Mecklenburg, hurt much of last year, has his best seasons behind him.

On offense, Elway is still a master, whether passing or scrambling. The receiving trio of Vance Johnson, Mark Jackson and Ricky Nattiel is one of the best. But Tony Dorsett, brought over from the Cowboys to pump some excitement into the running game, doesn't fit in well with the shotgun.

Keys to winning: Hope that Mecklenburg and company can find a way to stop the run. Make defense a priority in next year's draft and hope that Phillips can rebuild a semblance of the old Orange Crush before Elway gets bored.

Ken Behring, the second-year owner of the Seattle Seahawks, spent most of his energy and money in the off season engineering front-office moves. He fired general manager Mike McCormack and brought in minority stockholder and former sports agent Mike Blatt with the idea of having him run the team. When Blatt indicated that lie had priorities in life other than football, Behring hired 16m Flores, the former Los Angeles Raiders coach.

While all this was going on, Seattle lost center Blair Bush, tight end Mike Tice and kick returner Bobby Joe Edmonds to free agency. It then failed to bolster an undermanned defensive line in the draft by using its first five picks for offense.

The Seahawks have excellent depth at quarterback, with Dave Krieg, fully recovered from last seaison's shoulder injury, and Kelly Stouffer, who played well in six games as Krieg's replacement. Curt Warner and John L. Williams are as good as any running-back tandem in the league.

The question for the Seahawks and coach Chuck Knox is how long they can continue to play over .500 (9--7 last season) while finishing 23rd in the league in offense and 24th in defense.

Keys to winning: Get lucky with young players replacing proven veterans at center, tight end and kick returner. Seattle has to hope its only pass rusher, Jacob Green, who has 94 career sacks, stays healthy. Unless Knox and Flores can perform miracles, it may not be quite so noisy in the Dome this year.

The Kansas City Chiefs, with only two winning seasons and one play-off appearance in the past 13 years, have a new general manager, Carl Peterson, and a new head coach, Marty Schottenheimer, late of the Cleveland Browns. Scholtenheimer, bringing in 11 new coaches with him, immediately called upon the Chiefs to "raise the level of expectation of our football team."

Schottenheimer will also have to stop opponents from running the ball down his team's throat. The Chiefs were dead last in the league in rushing defense. The return of a healthy Bill Maas at nose tackle will help. And so will the first-round draft choice of Derrick Thomas, the best linebacker to come out of college since Cornelius Bennett. Thomas, teamed with Dino Hackett, gives the Chiefs the beginnings of a good group of linebackers.

The Chiefs still have the best defensive backfield around. Free safety Dcron Cherry has been to six straight Pro Bowls, and Albert Lewis and Lloyd Burruss are almost as good.

At quarterback, Steve DeBerg has obviously been brought in to work his special kind of magic. After all, he's the guy who was replaced by Montana at San Francisco, Elway at Denver and Testaverde at Tampa Bay. For this season, at least, DeBerg will play without the sound of younger, more talented footsteps in his ear.

At running back, Christian Okoye is intimidating when healthy. Unfortunately, that hasn't been very often. The wide-receiver tandem of Carlos Carson and Stephone Paige is fine, though Carson, at 30, may have lost a step.

Keys to winning: Schottenheimer has to teach the Chiefs how to stop the run. He maintains that run defense is more a question of position than of talent. His theory will be sorely tested. With a few more good drafts and Schottenheimer at the helm, the Chiefs may yet find their way to being competitive.

The San Diego Chargers' new head coach, Dan Henning, knows the script. He couldn't win without enough talent at Atlanta; he won't be able to win for the same reason in San Diego.

The problems start at quarterback. The Chargers got Mark Malone in a trade from Pittsburgh. Malone wasn't great in Pittsburgh and he was no better in San Diego. They wanted to make a trade with the Bears for Jim McMahon, but the deal fell through at the last minute when the Bears' draft choice wasn't available.

The Chargers got some good news when the Navy reassigned Napoleon McCallum to a nine-to-five desk job in San Diego and ruled that he could play football on weekends. McCallum, an outstanding running back at the Naval Academy, went over from the L.A. Raiders in a trade last fall. He'll spell limning back Gary Anderson, who gained 1119 yards for the Chargers last season.

On defense, linebacker Billy Ray Smith is Pro Bowl material, at least he would be on a winning team. Defensive end Leslie O'Neal, a great talent sidelined by a bad knee injury two years ago, was activated midway through last season.

The Chargers helped their kicking game by picking up Chris Bahr from free agency.

Keys to winning: Beg, borrow or steal a quarterback from someone. Hope that the team stays injury free. Look to the draft next year and be patient.

"Joe Montana is not human. I don't want to call him a god, but he's definitely somewhere in between."--Cris Collinsworth, wide receiver, Cincinnati Bengals

This Season's Winners

American Football Conference

Eastern Division .......... Buffalo Bills

Central Division .......... Cleveland Browns

Western Division .......... Los Angeles Raiders

Wild Cards .......... Houston Oilers, Indianapolis Colts

A.F.C. Champion .......... Buffalo Bills

National Football Conference

Eastern Division .......... Philadelphia Eagles

Central Division .......... Minnesota Vikings

Western Division .......... San Francisco 49ers

Wild Cards .......... Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Rams

N.F.C. Champion .......... minnesota Vikings

Super bowl champion .......... Minnesota vikings

Playboy's 1989 pre-season all-pro team

Offense

Randall Cunningham, Philadelphia .......... Quarterback

Eric Dickerson, Indianapolis .......... Running Back

Herschel Walker, Dallas .......... Running Back

Jerry Rice, San Francisco .......... Wide Receiver

Anthony Carter, Minnesota .......... Wide Receiver

Keith Jackson, Philadelphia .......... Tight End

Anthony Munoz, Cincinnati .......... Tackle

Gary Zimmerman, Minnesota .......... Tackle

Bill Fralic, Atlanta .......... Guard

Max Montoya, Cincinnati .......... Guard

Ray Donaldson, Indianapolis .......... Center

Defense

Bruce Smith, Buffalo .......... End

Chris Doleman, Minnesota .......... End

Reggie White, Philadelphia .......... Tackle

Mike Singletary, Chicago .......... Inside Linebacker

John Offerdahl, Miami .......... Inside Linebacker

Andre Tippett, New England .......... Outside Linebacker

Cornelius Bennett, Buffalo .......... Outside Linebacker

Albert Lewis, Kansas City .......... Cornerback

Frank Minnifield, Cleveland .......... Cornerback

Joey Browner, Minnesota .......... Safety

Ronnie Lott, San Francisco .......... Safety

Specialties

Morten Andersen, New Orleans .......... Place Kicker

Jim Arnold, Detroit .......... Punter

Tim Brown, Los Angeles Raiders .......... Kick Returner

Ron Wolfley, Phoenix .......... Special Terms

Rookie Of The Year

Barry Sanders, Detroit .......... Running Back

Eastern Division

National Football Conference

Philedelphia Eagles .......... 10-6

Washington Redskins .......... 8-8

New York Giants .......... 8-8

Dallas Cowboys .......... 7-9

Phoenix cardinals .......... 7-9

Central Division

National Football Conference

Minnesota Vikings .......... 12-4

Chicago Bears .......... 11-5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers .......... 6-10

Detroit Lions .......... 4-12

Green Bay Packers .......... 4-12

Western Division

National Football Conference

San Francisco 49ers .......... 10-6

Los Angeles Rams .......... 10-6

New Orleans Saints .......... 8-8

Atlanta Falcons .......... 6-10

"In the past five years, no Super Bowl champ has won even a play-off game the following year."

Eastern Division

American Football Conference

Buffalo Bills .......... 11-5

Indianapolis Colts .......... 10-6

New England Patriots .......... 9-7

Miami Dolphins .......... 8-8

New York Jets .......... 6-10

"Lets's face it. The Patriots have had a complex ever since the Bears blew them out in Super Bowl XX."

Central Division

American Football Conference

Cleveland Browns .......... 10-6

Houston Oilers .......... 10-6

Cincinnati Bengals .......... 9-7

Pittsburgh Steelers .......... 4-12

Western Division

American Football Conference

Los Angeles Raiders .......... 10-6

Denver Broncos .......... 7-6

Seattle Seahawks .......... 7-9

Kansas City Chiefs .......... 6-10

San Diego Chargers .......... 5-11