Playboy's Pro Football Forecast

When I was just a little fella sittin' at the knee of the late Anson Mount, Playboy's poppa football prognosticator, he taught me rule number one of the mystical trade. "Son," said Anson, "never pick a Super Bowl winner to repeat." Seemed like sound advice. After all, no team had turned the trick since the Steelers dynasty of the late Seventies. Heck, from 1983 to 1987, no Super Bowl champ had even won a play-off game the following year.

There are lots of reasons it's hard to repeat. First, winners get the following season's toughest schedule. Then there's the reverse order of the draft. Win the Super Bowl and you pick 28th on the first and subsequent rounds. Players and coaches also must write their memoirs after a Super Bowl win. And don't forget the rubber-chicken speaking circuit. And the Let-terman show. And some guys want to renegotiate their contracts and wind up missing training camp and holding out the first few games. And don't forget the luck factor--the luck of avoiding injuries, the luck of the way the ball bounces.

So how come the San Francisco 49ers not only repeated but dominated last year, winning 14 out of 16 regular-season games and demolishing Denver 55-10 in Super Bowl XXIV? Simple. They have the best players, the best quarterback and a smart coach in George Seifert, all under the care of modern-day patrone owner Eddie DeBartolo, Jr. (see page 123), who coddles his minions like fine works of art--which in the case of Joe Montana and Jerry Rice is just what they are.

Oh, yeah. One other thing. The rest of the teams in pro football, with the possible exception of the 1-15 Dallas Cowboys, are so closely bunched in talent and inspiration that they take turns bashing one another's brains out, while the 49ers cruise on a higher plane of existence. Last season, 17 of 28 teams finished within two games of .500. In the N.F.C., only the 49ers, the Rams, the Eagles and the Giants managed to win more than ten games. In the A.F.C., it was even closer; only Denver (11-5) won more than ten times. The term to describe the phenomenon is parity, and its father is Pete Rozelle, the former N.F.L. commissioner, whose replacement, league lawyer and confidant Paul Tagliabue, will most likely continue the state of equilibrium, which, for the time being, leaves San Francisco alone with its dynasty.

So unless Joe Montana steps in a hole while deciding which of his five wide-open All-Pro receivers to throw to, we have no choice but to pick up the chant that began drifting along the 49ers bench about three minutes into Super Bowl XXIV--three-peat.

If the outcome looks the same, the season will feature a few odd novelties. The league has added two more teams to the play-offs, a plan that comes too late to help Wisconsin fans, whose Packers would have made last year's play-offs had the new format been in place. According to Commissioner Tagliabue, it will "create added competition and excitement." He could have added that it will put a few more million bucks in the pot.

The season will also be extended to 17 weeks. Each team will receive a one-week bye and the extra week between the league championship and the Super Bowl will be eliminated. In 1992 and 1993, the season will expand to 18 weeks, though each team will still play only 16 regular-season games. Again, figure more television (read monetary) opportunities.

A restructuring of the league is definitely on Tagliabue's list of dos for the Nineties. The present two 14-team conferences, each separated into three divisions, will probably be scrapped for three ten-team conferences, each divided into two divisions. That would open up two spots for expansion teams.

And now, before any more artificial turf grows between our toes, let's take a swing around the league and see who, if anyone, can challenge the 49ers in 1990.

As San Francisco 49ers coach George Seifert said recently while polishing his Super Bowl ring, "We didn't change much from the Bill Walsh era. Why should we?" Pretty smart guy, this George Seifert. Forty-Niners. pretty good team. Four Super Bowls in the Eighties. Team of the decade. But when Seifert said "We didn't change," he really meant, "We didn't stop changing." Have the best team in football? Sign cornerbacks Hanford Dixon from Cleveland and Dave Waymer from New Orleans, defensive tackle Fred Smerlas from Buffalo and two or three other guys available through Plan B. Trade running back Terrence Flagler and defensive end Daniel Stubbs to the Cowboys for some draft picks next year. Dump malcontent cornerback Tim McKyer. Draft a nifty little speed ball named Dexter Carter from Florida State and take on Dennis Brown, a hulking if slightly pudgy defensive tackle from Washington.

Seifert is shrewd about keeping the best of what he has: offensive coordinator Mike Holmgren, who stays put even though three other teams are falling over one another to make him their head coach, and quarterback Steve Young, football's top backup player, who's waiting around another year for Joe the Magnificent to hang it up.

There are lots of reasons the 49ers win but none more important than Joe Montana. Just look at the numbers last season: passes attempted, 386; passes completed, 271. That's 70.2 percent. Twenty-six touchdowns, only eight interceptions and a quarterback rating of 112.4, the highest ever. But numbers aren't the whole story with Montana; he is almost serene behind center in the most critical, pressure-packed situations.

It has to be frustrating for Los Angeles Rams coach John Robinson. His team was regarded by many as the second best in pro football last season, improved significantly in the off season and is still second best. It's enough to make owner Georgia Frontiere's hair turn orange.

The heart of the Rams attack is an offensive line led by Jackie Slater, Doug Smith and Tom Newberry. As is the habit with good teams, the Rams improved upon a strength by drafting Washington center Bern Brostek with their first pick and nabbing guard Joe Milinichik, a starter at Detroit, through Plan B. Then they backed up Greg Bell (1137 yards) by dipping into Plan B once again for running back Curt Warner, the former Seattle star.

Heading the Rams offense, of course, is Jim Everett, who passed for more touchdowns (29) than any other quarterback in the league. With receivers Henry Ellard and deep threat Willie "Flipper" Anderson, who averaged an amazing 26 yards per catch, the Rams figure to trail only the 49ers (442 to 426 last year) in points scored.

There is, however, a glaring weakness in the Rams' otherwise strong game: pass defense. In that category, they finished 28th, dead last not just in the division, not just in the conference, but in the league, surrendering 4302 yards to their opponents. Defensive coordinator Fritz Shurmur calls one defensive scheme the eagle, but last year, it performed more like a dodo.

The New Orleans Saints have had three winning seasons in a row but only one play-off berth to show for it. And there's a disturbing trend to their numbers: 12 wins in 1987, ten wins in 1988, nine wins in 1989. If general manager Jim Finks and coach Jim Mora don't find a way to plug the leaks, the Saints' ship may continue to sink.

The biggest question is at quarterback. Bobby Hebert, benched by Mora with three games left in the season, has asked to be traded. John Fourcade, who played well at the end of last season, is hardly a franchise Q.B.; his tendency to run out of the pocket also makes an injury-free season doubtful. The Saints drafted two young quarterbacks, Mike Buck from Maine and Gerry Gdowski from Nebraska, but neither will help any time soon.

The outlook is brighter at running back, where Rueben Mayes returns after missing last season with an injured Achilles' tendon. Dalton Hilliard was a Saints savior in Mayes's absence, gaining more than 1200 yards. The offensive line is good, but the wide-receiving corps lacks a burner.

On defense, the Saints played their version of Jekyll and Hyde. They were the top-rated rushing defense in the league, thanks in large part to a stellar linebacking corps led by underrated Pat Swilling and Vaughn Johnson. Unfortunately, stopping the rush sent opposing teams to the air, and the Saints' pass defense had more holes in it than Pete Fountain's clarinet. The team took West Virginia defensive end Renaldo Turnbull with its first pick in the draft in an effort to bolster an aging defensive front.

It's the 25th anniversary of the Atlanta Falcons franchise this season and, appropriately enough, the team has decided to celebrate by returning to its original black jerseys. New coach Jerry Glanville, formerly with Houston, doesn't mind a bit, since they fit his all-black wardrobe just fine. He promises to bring an attack philosophy to the Falcons, who were eminently forgettable last year. "We will hustle, we will chase, we will hit and we will be enthusiastic!" says the former orchestrator of the Oiler House of Pain.

Ironically, Glanville may have received the biggest assist in his mission not from personnel director Ken He-rock but from Indianapolis Colts owner Robert Irsay. Irsay fell so in love with Illini quarterback Jeff George's potential that he traded six-time Pro Bowl offensive lineman Chris Hinton, wide receiver Andre Rison and next year's number-one pick to get the Falcons' top spot in this year's draft.

Glanville will switch the team to his version of the run-and-shoot, which he calls the "red gun." Quarterback Chris Miller, whose performance has yet to match his potential, will have as many as four wide receivers on the field.

On defense, the Falcons are anchored by nose tackle Tony Casillas and cornerback Deion Sanders. As a kick returner, Sanders is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. Unfortunately, for every bright spot on the Falcons' defense, there's a hole next to it, accounting for opponents' scoring an average 27.3 points per game last year.

Before the start of minicamp, Minnesota Vikings general manager Mike Lynn joined his players on an Outward Bound type of program in New Mexico. Helping one another over a 50-foot wall was part of Lynn's strategy to update his image and revive pro football's premiere group of underachievers. The Vikings were picked by many, including us, to win last season's Super Bowl; instead, they limped in with a weak 10-6 record and lost their first-round play-off game.

Don't blame the defense. Number one in 1988 and 1989, it's most likely to win top honors again. Last season, led by sack masters Chris Doleman (21) and Keith Millard (18), Minnesota finished only one sack shy of the 1984 Bears mark of 72.

To avoid the quarterback controversy that has haunted coach Jerry Burns in recent years, the Vikings released veteran Tommy Kramer. The job belongs to Wade Wilson and backup Rich Gannon, though it's rumored that Lynn covets the Cowboys' Steve Walsh.

The Vikings also hope that they can reap some benefits from the controversial Herschel Walker trade that sent a passel of players and draft picks to the Cowboys for the former Heisman winner. Walker, who gained more than 100 yards only once for the Vikes, should do better with new assistant head coach Tom Moore sending in the plays.

Ironically, the Vikings won all eight of their home games, played indoors, but failed to prevail in any cold-weather sites, picking up victories in only Tampa and the Silverdome. If they do win it all this season, how many general managers will feel compelled to scale 50-foot walls next year?

The Detroit Lions could have done an "el foldo" act last year after stumbling to a 1-8 start. But coach Wayne Fontes refused to panic and the Lions finished 6--1, with upsets of the Packers, the Browns and the Saints. Much of the credit goes to running back Barry Sanders, who finished a close second to Christian Okoye for the league rushing title. Sanders, the new, improved and better-behaved version of Billy Sims, made offensive guru Mouse Davis' run-and-shoot a lot more run than pass.

Desperate for an outside pass rush on defense, the franchise instead nabbed Heisman-trophy quarterback. Andre Ware on the seventh pick of the first round of the draft. He should be perfectly suited to the team's offensive scheme.

The Lions have the right attitude and some of the right talent. In the topsy-turvy world of the N.F.C. Central, anything can happen.

It was almost the season of destiny for the Green Bay Packers, time to finally put the Lombardi years to rest. Finishing at 10-6, the Pack was in the playoff hunt until the final game of the season. The unlikely hero was quarterback Don Majkowski, who specialized in comeback victories and fourth-down magic.

The Packers got plenty of help from Plan B (they signed 20 players) but little from number-one draft pick (continued on page 146)Pro Football Forecast (continued from page 124) tackle Tony Mandarich, who never broke into the starting line-up after a prolonged contract holdout. Wide receiver Sterling Sharpe had 90 catches and 12 T.D.s, while linebacker Tim Harris managed 19-1/2 sacks without ever shutting his mouth.

Green Bay picked up a steal in this year's draft when Minnesota running back Darrell Thompson was still available on the 19th pick of the first round. Thompson will certainly pressure underachiever Brent Fullwood. Majkowski, as yet unsigned and engaged in a suit against the N.F.L.'s free-agency rules, should settle by the opening game.

A Packers team returning to the Super Bowl would make a great story, but remember that the Pack had the league's easiest schedule and best luck last season. Despite Linday Infante's superior coaching, don't expect Green Bay on top of the N.F.C. Central just yet.

While no one has ever questioned the intensity of Chicago Bears coach Mike Ditka, there were plenty of fans last season who wondered about his judgment. Ditka ranted and raved, denounced his team as losers, criticized his rookies in public and several times took over the play calling from offensive coordinator Greg Landry in mid-game--all to no avail. The Bears finished 6-10 (after a 4-0 start) and failed to win the N.F.C. Central for the first time in five years.

The success of the Bears in the Eighties was based on the dominance of their defense. In 1988, they were the number-two defensive team in the N.F.L.; in 1989, they were 25th. Injuries were a big factor, but none was bigger than the season-ending knee injury to defensive tackle Dan Hampton in game four. Even Pro-Bowl middle linebacker Mike Singletary appeared vulnerable once Hampton exited. When injury wasn't a problem, execution was.

On offense, the Bears failed to improve a mediocre quarterback duo of Mike Tomczak and Jim Harbaugh. Neal Anderson, the Bears' leading rusher, with 1275 yards, was signed to a new multimillion-dollar contract, but Thomas Sanders and Dennis McKinnon are gone. Brad Muster, the number-one fullback, had off-season back surgery.

Ditka, in the last year of his contract and probably the last year of his coaching career, would love to go out a winner. But the Bears are a shadow of their former selves and the Central Division is no longer filled with patsies.

Who would have guessed that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would beat the Chicago Bears twice and still win only five games? For coach Ray Perkins, it was another year of frustration. The running game, led (if you can call it that) by Lars Tate, averaged just 94.2 yards per game. Quarterback Vinny Tes-taverde got off to a good start but resumed his inconsistent ways once his pass protection broke down. And the defense, which also showed early promise, disappeared as the Bucs dropped nine of their last 11 games.

After three losing seasons, Perkins may be losing his patience. "Next year," he says, "there's going to be a little more pressure." He helped his team immeasurably by discounting predraft rumors about the emotional and physical condition of linebacker Keith McCants and nabbing the future Hall-of-Famer with the fourth pick of the first round. The three teams who passed on McCants may regret that decision for a long time.

In a move to bolster the Bucs' running attack, Perkins traded future draft picks to San Diego for running back Gary Anderson, who sat out last season with contract problems. The Bucs also took a chance in the draft on running back Reggie Cobb, whose potential was clouded by some off-field problems at Tennessee.

Testaverde has fewer excuses for failure this year. The running attack should improve, and so will the offensive line, anchored by tackle Paul Gruber, who has yet to miss a down in two years. The Bucs' biggest problem is that Detroit and Green Bay, long their comrades in mediocrity, have also improved.

In the vernacular of coach Buddy Ryan, "The Philadelphia Eagles kicked butt in the N.F.C. East last year." But after two victories over archrival New York and a total of 11 wins, the highest in Ryan's four-year tenure, why is he so grumpy? Maybe it's because his Eagles have yet to win a play-off game, surrendering most recently to the Rams (21-7) in last year's wild-card game.

The problem with the Eagles is not a lack of aggression. The defense made 30 interceptions and had 26 fumble recoveries, both league highs. Along the defensive line, Clyde Simmons, Jerome Brown and four-year All-Pro Reggie White all reached double figures in sacks. And second-year cornerback Eric Allen emerged as one of the league's top coverage men.

On offense, Ryan has hired new offensive coordinator Rich Kotite, who will try to get Randall Cunningham back on track after a sub-par season. Cunningham may have been suffering from writer's cramp after signing a seven-year, $17,900,000 contract extension last year.

Ryan promised Philly fans a Super Bowl by the end of his five-year contract. This is year five.

The only team that won more regular-season games last season than the New York Giants (12) was the 49ers (14), a feat made more remarkable by the fact that three front-line players--running back Joe Morris, tight end Mark Bavaro and defensive end Eric Dorsey--missed all or most of the season. The problem for the Giants the past two years has been that they can't seem to beat the Eagles (four straight losses) or win a play-off game.

Since 1986, coach Bill Parcells has been busy trying to build another Super Bowl champ, but as he finds one piece of the puzzle, he loses another. The Giants lost ten players in Plan B this year, including five starters. The offensive line is young and huge (the starting five weigh a combined 1415 pounds), but quarterback Phil Simms may have his best seasons behind him and running back Ottis Anderson is 33. Georgia running back Rodney Hampton, the Giants' number-one draft pick, will probably win a starting job by the beginning of the season.

On defense, the linebacking remains the strong suit. Lawrence Taylor is the best outside linebacker ever and Carl Banks, Gary Reasons and Pepper Johnson are outstanding. However, there's little depth either on the defensive line or in the backfield, where seven-year starter Terry Kinard, a Plan B loss, will be missed.

The Washington Redskins stumbled out of the blocks last season, dropping their first two games to the Giants and the Eagles on freaky last-minute plays, and struggled uphill from there. Considering the midseason injuries to cornerback Darrell Green (broken wrist) and offensive linemen Joe Jacoby and Mark May (knees), plus the distraction of Dexter Manley's ban from football for a third instance of substance abuse, coach Joe Gibbs did a fine job in coaxing ten wins out of the Redskins.

Going into this season, Gibbs is committed to starting quarterback Mark Rypien, who finished strong last year. Rypien's season start had been inglorious as he set a Guinness Book record by fumbling the first ten times he was sacked. "The Posse"--Art Monk, Gary Clark and Ricky Sanders--each collected more than 1000 yards receiving. Running backs Ernest Byner, Gerald Riggs and James Wilder are all good but in the twilight of their careers.

Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson has the security of the gutter (a 1-15 record last season) and a ten-year contract that has nine years to run. At times last year, it looked as if he might need the better part of the decade to straighten out the Cowboys' problems.

The offense was terrible. Dallas was shut out three times, while under Tom Landry, it was shut out only twice in 29 years. Rookie quarterback Troy Aikman has yet to lead his team to a win; the Cowboys' only victory was against the Redskins when Steve Walsh started.

Once Johnson and owner Jerry Jones realized how bad their team really was, they cashed in their chips and traded running back Herschel Walker to the Vikings for a bunch of players and draft choices. The deal didn't work for either team, though both have hopes for the future.

The Cowboys defense was almost as bad as the offense. The pass rush was nonexistent and Cowboys defenders managed only seven interceptions all season.

Ordinarily, a 1-15 record entitles a team to the first pick in the draft. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they had already used that number-one choice to take quarterback Steve Walsh in the supplemental draft. Aikman is not happy about having Walsh watching him from the side lines and Walsh is not happy playing behind Aikman. The team has tried to trade Walsh but so far has been unable to make a deal.

New Phoenix Cardinals coach Joe Bugel believes that "organizations win Super Bowls." Don't look now, Joe, but the one you're working for is more than a little suspect. Bugel, formerly offensive coach for the Redskins, was hired to replace Gene Stallings after Stallings announced in midseason that he would not seek a contract extension. Ironically, Stallings was doing a stellar coaching job and had the injury-riddled Cards 5-5 at the time, but the team took a nose dive and failed to win another game.

The fans in Phoenix weren't enthralled with the situation, either. Season-ticket sales declined by 18,000 and the Cardinals failed to sell out even one game. Meanwhile, owner Billy Bidwill has steadfastly supported player personnel director George Boone, whose draft-day decisions have often been suspect.

With Neil Lomax retired because of an arthritic hip, Bugel is at least clear on whom he wants to start at quarterback--Timm Rosenbach, the Washington State Q.B. selected in the supplemental draft.

Both rushing and stopping the rush were big problems for the Cardinals last year. Running back Stump Mitchell went out with a knee injury after game four. Because a full recovery is questionable, Bugel was delighted that Indiana running back Anthony Thompson was still available to the Cards in the second round of the draft.

The N.F.C. East championship is a toss-up among the Eagles, the Giants and the Redskins. The Eagles have the easiest schedule, the Giants the most talent. Sorry, Redskins.

Ask most football experts to pick a team on the rise and they'll name the Kansas City Chiefs. In fact, over the final eight weeks of last season, the Chiefs at 5-2-1 were the best team in the A.F.C. Give the credit to new coach Marty Schottenheimer.

Schottenheimer brought an appreciation of hard-nosed defense when he came over from the Cleveland Browns, as well as an ability to spot the obvious--which was that Christian Okoye, the 260-pound Nigerian who can run 40 yards as fast as Jerry Rice can (4.48 seconds), ought to be the center of his offense. Result: Okoye was the N.F.L.'s leading rusher, with 1480 yards. The Chiefs lack a good backup for him, but so far, no one has been able to make the good-natured and aptly named Christian mad, much less hurt him. The fact that he operates behind one of the better and bigger offensive lines (three players over 300 pounds) doesn't hurt, either.

And the defense, first in the A.F.C. and second overall, will likely get even better. Neil Smith, at defensive end, is on the verge of greatness. The lineback-ing corps, already one of the best in football, with N.F.L. Defensive Rookie of the Year Derrick Thomas, will be bolstered by the addition of Percy Snow, the Chiefs' first pick in the draft. The defensive backfield-- with Albert Lewis, Kevin Ross and perennial All-Pro Deron Cherry--is nearly as good as the linebackers.

The missing letter in the phrase A.F.C. Championship for the Chiefs is Q, as in quarterback. Steve DeBerg started last season, did poorly and was benched. Steve Pelluer, the former Cowboy, replaced him and was injured. DeBerg returned to finish out the season well, and young Mike Elkins awaits his chance. But can the Chiefs ride any of these guys to the championship?

Forget everything you ever thought you knew about San Diego Chargers football. The Dan Fouts/"Air" Coryell all-offense, no-defense days are history. The Chargers finished sixth overall in the N.F.L. in defense last season.

Owner Alex Spanos has hired Bobby Beathard, formerly of the Washington Redskins and one of the best talent eval-uators in football, as general manager. Beathard's challenge will be to find some offense to go with the defense. The Chargers are committed at quarterback to young Bill)' Joe Tolliver, who coach Dan Henning predicts is "the quarterback of the future here." Ex-Bear Jim McMahon was released in the off season.

Beathard surprised most experts when he played it straight in the draft and took USC linebacker Junior Sean with the fifth pick of the first round instead of trading down. "We couldn't pass him up," said Beathard of the 1989 Pac 10 Defensive Player of the Year. Seau, with 18 sacks last season, should fit in well with a defensive unit that led the A.F.C. with 48 sacks. Linebacker Leslie O'Neal (12.5 sacks) and defensive ends Lee Williams (56.5 sacks in five seasons) and Burt Grossman (ten sacks as a rookie) are the stuff about which opposing quarterbacks have nightmares.

Before last season's Denver Broncos/ Cleveland Browns A.F.C. championship game, Jay Mariotti, a Denver newspaper columnist, suggested that "a Sunday loss may be best for the community," better than "returning to another Super Bowl, with the world watching, and getting pounded again."

After the Broncos' Super Bowl pounding, ex-49er Randy Cross quipped, "The only thing they won was the coin flip."

And poor John Elway was left mumbling, "When are we going to win one of these things?"

Were the Broncos really that bad or were the 49ers that good? You could lay it all on the 49ers if it weren't for history: Super Bowl XII, Cowboys 27, Broncos 10; Super Bowl XXI, Giants 39, Broncos 20; Super Bowl XXII, Redskins 42, Broncos 10. But coach Dan Reeves doesn't believe in history; he believes only in the future. The problem is that the 1990 Broncos look an awful lot like the 1989 version. That's not bad, since Denver did get to the Super Bowl, but in this league, if you're not getting better, you're getting worse.

Elway was not one of the top-ten-rated passers in pro football last season. In fact, he was no better than ninth in the A.F.C. Reeves's rehire of quarterback coach Mike Shanahan seemed to settle Elway down toward the end of the season, though Shanahan couldn't help him in the Super Bowl fiasco.

Before last season, Reeves made two brilliant moves that undoubtedly saved the Broncos from a predicted finish of third place or worse in the A.F.C. West. He hired Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator and took Alabama running back Bobby Humphrey in the supplemental draft. Humphrey responded by gaining 1151 yards and Phillips' rushing defense topped the conference by allowing 60 fewer yards per game (with an average of 98.7) than it did in 1988. Phillips' defensive plan favored aggressiveness over complexity and allowed linebacker Karl Mecklenburg to re-establish himself as a Pro Bowler.

Denver's success last season had as much to do with the over-all weakness of the A.F.C. as it did with the Broncos' strength. Until they can establish a consistent passing game and not simply rely on the big play, the Broncos will have to count on Reeves's coaching to get them back to another Super Bowl. Or maybe they'd prefer to stay home.

Wanted: A home for Al Davis and the Los Angeles Raiders. Only cities with warm climates, a new or renovated stadium with lots of luxury boxes and several hundred million dollars need apply. The Raiders, once the darlings of Oakland, then the neglected stepchild of La La Land, haven't been able to go home again, in large part, because Davis and some Oakland politicians underestimated the anger of the city's nonfbootball fans when asked to put their tax dollars in Silver and Black stock. So, for now, the Raiders remain at the Coliseum, a stadium they filled only to slightly more than half capacity last season.

While the Raiders haven't been able to figure out where to park the team bus. they have decided who is going to drive it. Art Shell, once a player, now head coach, was given the wheel after a disastrous 1-3 start prompted Davis to fire Mike Shanahan, the first time he had ever dismissed a head coach. Shell emphasized toughness and allowed his players to sit on their helmets, a practice banned by Shanahan. The Raiders responded by winning seven of their last 12 games and nearly making the play-offs.

Shell has made it clear that this season, he favors quarterback Steve Beuerlein over Jay Schroeder. Marcus Allen and Greg Bell, acquired in a trade with the Rams just as we went to press, have the unenviable job of handling the rushing responsibilities until Bo Jackson shows up, though one has to wonder how much longer Bo will play both football and baseball.

While there are questions about who is going to carry the ball, there are plenty of talented receivers to throw to if a rebuilt offensive line can give Beuerlein the time. Tim Brown is expected to return to 100 percent after knee surgery last season. Mervyn Fernandez picked up more than 1000 yards in his absence and Willie Gault, the former chocolate swirl, is hoping to be more than a deep-threat decoy.

On defense, the Raiders need an injury-free season from defensive end Howie Long. Greg Townsend, who had 10.5 sacks from the outside-linebacker slot last year, moves to the other defensive-end position.

The Raiders have talent in the defensive backfield with Terry McDaniel and Eddie Anderson. They hope that second-round draft pick Aaron Wallace will bolster a mediocre linebacking corps.

Despite some improvements, Shell will find that this Raiders team has more tradition than talent, especially in the rapidly improving Western Division.

Last year, the Seattle Seahawks finished 26th out of 28 in total offense and 23rd against the rush on defense, and still won seven games. They'll struggle to do as well this season. Hall-of-Famer Steve Largent has retired. Curt Warner went south to the Rams under Plan B, leaving only unproven second-year back Derrick Fenner and Elroy Harris as replacements. Another likely casualty is deodorant spokesman Brian Bosworth, lost to a shoulder injury.

Quarterback Dave Krieg played in his third Pro Bowl, proving that a willingness to show up counts more than quarterback fumbles when winning that post-season honor. Krieg had 18 fumbles and threw 20 interceptions. Coach Chuck Knox hopes that Krieg will be able to get the ball to wide receiver Brian Blades more often this year. The rest of the Seattle offense will likely consist of different methods of putting the ball in the hands of John L. Williams, one of the most versatile backs in the league.

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Last season, Cincinnati Bengals coach Sam Wyche was fined $3000 by the N.F.L. for shutting the media out of the locker room after a loss to Seattle. On another occasion, he grabbed a side-line microphone and reminded rowdy Cincinnati fans that they weren't in Cleveland; later, he lambasted Jerry Glanville and his Houston Oilers. Unfortunately, Wyche's football team was a tad more demure.

The 1988 A.F.C. champs failed to make the play-offs, finishing 8-8. They were the soul of inconsistency, destroying opponents one week and surrendering meekly the next. Injuries hurt, but the root of the problem was that, the Bengals just didn't play hungry.

One of the most talented teams on paper over the past several years, the Bengals have some problems to solve beyond their appetite, though wyche is confident that they can again reach the Super Bowl. He's depending on quarterback Boomer Esiason to have another season like 1988. Wyche says, "Boomer's task this year is to be an exceptional leader; to bring his team to a Super Bowl championship and not just a statistical lead in offensive categories." Behind Esiason will be running back James Brooks, who gained 1239 yards last season and led the Bengals to the league's team rushing title. Tim McGee and Eddie Brown are excellent wide receivers, but there's little depth behind them.

Cincinnati's biggest problem is stopping the rush. The Bengals allowed opponents an average of 4.5 yards per carry. Tim Krumrie has to re-establish himself in the middle. A replacement for linebacker Reggie Williams, who retired alter 15 years, could be draft picks James Francis from Baylor or Bernard Clark from Miami.

Considering that quarterback Bernie Kosar couldn't throw farther than 20 yards all season long and that Kevin Mack, the work horse of the Cleveland Browns running attack, missed 12 games because of some messy business involving cocaine, you have to give credit to first-year coach Bud Carson for steering Cleveland to its fourth A.F.C. Central championship in five years. But the Browns were helped by parity in the division, in which the highest number of wins was nine and the lowest eight.

Kosar's elbow is healed, Mack is back on the right side of the law and Carson has hired Jim Shofner, most recently with the Phoenix Cardinals, as offensive coordinator. The philosophy on offense will be ball control, with a shorter, more concise passing attack and lots of opportunities for Mack and little Eric Metcalf, who was energy personified before he wore down toward the end of last season. The Browns took Michigan running back Leroy Hoard as their first pick in the draft to back up Mack.

On defense, Michael Dean Perry is the player Mike Ditka dreamed that brother Fridge would be. He's explosively quick off the ball and very strong. The corners remain a question, particularly because the Browns have been unable to sign Frank Minnilield. Hanford Dixon was lost in Plan B, but the Browns acquired Raymond Clayborn, another aging but talented player, to fill his spot.

Over the past few seasons, the Houston Oilers have developed a reputation as a talented team that always finds a way to lose. Cincinnati coach wyche called the Oilers "the most stupid team in the league" after his Bengals blasted them 61-7. As impolite as the remark seemed, it was true. The Oilers were the most penalized team in football (2056 yards) and gave up the most points in the A.F.C. (412), a lot of them on big pass plays. Those are the kinds of mistakes that gel coaches fired and, sure enough, Jerry Glanville was soon packing black shirts and pants and heading for Atlanta.

The Oilers found Glanville's successor--University of Houston coach Jack Pardee--right down the street. Not only did Pardee have the right address, he was also a practitioner of the run-and-shoot--the ideal offense for the Oilers and quarterback Warren Moon.

With a plethora of talented running backs, it seems almost certain that the Oilers will deal one off before the season begins. Pardee clearly favors playing Alonzo Highsmith: "Out of the one-back spot," he promises, "Alonzo can do it all." The wide receivers--Drew Hill, Ernest Givins and Curtis Duncan--perfectly fit the wide-open offense.

However, what Houston's offense does, Houston's defense can undo. Defensive stalwart Ray Childress is trying to come back from a fractured leg; nose tackle Doug Smith is recovering from an off-season gunshot wound to the leg. The Houston linebacking corps is undistinguished.

While Pittsburgh Steelers coach Chuck Noll has often been described as stoic, a better term might be unflinching. Noll is the man who fashioned the Steelers dynasty that won four Super Bowls, who watched his great players retire to the Hall of Fame and stayed on to risk being called a has-been, whose lowly team finished 5-11 in 1988 and started off 1989 by losing its first two games by a total of 92-10. And, evidently, he's still a good coach--because Pittsburgh roared back to win live of its last six games and make the play-offs for the first time in five years.

But how did Noll work his magic? Pittsburgh had more than its share of injuries and holdouts. Rookie running back Tim Worley, the Steelers' top draft pick, didn't produce until the final five games. The passing offense--no offense to quarterback Bubby Brister--was the worst in the league. And the defense, 19th in the league, didn't have good stats, either. However, the Steelers did win the take-away/giveaway tug of war by II. And Rod Woodson, who gained almost 1000 yards returning kicks, often put the offense in good field position.

Other than a lot of optimism, there's not much to recommend the Steelers this year. Defensive coordinator Rod Rust left to take the head-coaching job at New England. In desperate need of a defensive lineman, the Steelers used their first pick to draft Eric Green at tight end, a position already adequately filled by Mike Mularkey. And Joe Walton, who found little success and no happiness with the Jets, has been hired as the new offensive coordinator. But before you count Pittsburgh out, remember that the man who doesn't flinch is still at the helm.

The A.F.C. Central will be a dogfight among the Bengals, the Browns and the Oilers. Two wild-card teams could come out of the pack.

Last year, the Buffalo Bills were supposed to be the best team in the A.F.C., and they did win the divisional title, but only because no other team in the East played better than .500. The Bills almost beat Cleveland in the play-offs, but then, the Browns weren't so hot, either.

One of Buffalo's problems was that the players expended more emotion criticizing one another's play than they did against the opposition. Quarterback Jim Kelly had verbal skirmishes with most of his teammates, two assistant coaches punched each other out and the general manager invited media critics to leave town.

Kelly and his teammates issued apologies and the Bills signed him to a $20,000,000 contract. The team maintains that last year's turmoil was greatly exaggerated and that with a happy Kelly and a few troublemakers gone, the Super Bowl is still attainable. However, Plan B cost the Bills running back Ronnie Harmon, punter John Kidd, nose tackle Fred Smerlas and wide receiver Flip Johnson. Cornerback Derrick Burroughs' career ended last year with a neck injury and safety Mark Kelso ended the season wearing a special helmet because of a series of concussions.

On the positive side, Kelly can sometimes dominate a game and Thurman Thomas gained more yards from scrimmage than any other back in the league. Bruce Smith is one of the best defensive ends in football and the Bills linebacking corps--with Cornelius Bennett, Shane Conlan, Ray Bentley and underrated Darryl Talley--is formidable.

The best thing the Miami Dolphins have going for them is that three of their rivals in the A.F.C. East--the Colts, the Patriots and the Jets--are in a state of disarray or rebuilding from the bottom up. It's all the more frustrating for coach Don Shula, who, after 27 seasons and 285 victories (second only to George Halas), can't seem to make the Dolphins (8-8 last year) better than the league.

Events in the off season haven't helped. After owner Joe Robbie's death last January, Shula and his star quarterback Dan Marino traded a volley of insults and Marino talked trade. Of course, Shula knows better than to give up the best thing the Dolphins have going, even if he is a little free with his opinions.

Perhaps as a gesture toward Marino's good health, Shula and the Dolphins drafted two enormous offensive linemen, Richmond Webb from Texas A&M and Keith Sims from Iowa. The rest of the line, which was already better at pass protection than run blocking, should give Marino plenty of time to hit favorite receivers Mark Clayton, Ferrell Edmunds and the Dolphins' most versatile player, Jim Jensen.

As everyone knows, Miami's problem for the past few years has been defense. And while Shula and defensive coordinator Tom Olivadotti have made some improvements, the Dolphins are still a long way from having the kind of intimidating defense that it takes to win a Super Bowl.

Somebody should have offered New York Jets coach Joe Walton a blindfold to spare him watching his team meekly surrender to Buffalo 37-0 in last season's finale. Let's hope that for Jets fans, it was the end of an era of frustration and mediocrity.

In December, owner Leon Hess hired ex-Patriot Dick Steinberg as general manager and told him to start a football team. Steinberg, mercifully, fired Walton and his staff and then unsuccessfully tried to hire Michigan State coach George Perles. He finally landed Cincinnati offensive coordinator Bruce Coslet and set about putting the microscope, as he called it, to the Jets' talent. He declared, "There aren't enough guys here in the prime of their careers to build solidity," and in another piece of understatement, "The Jets are not one of the strongest teams." At 4-12 last season, the Jets weren't about to argue.

Steinberg then had a highly successful draft, landing Penn State running back Blair Thomas with the second over-all pick, taking West Virginia wide receiver Reggie Rembert next and picking up a steal at the 84th pick in California quarterback Troy Taylor.

Thomas will start immediately in place of Freeman McNeil. Receivers Al Toon and Mickey Shuler will return after missing much of last season because of injuries. The defense will struggle but should finish better than last year's platoon. And if the media and fans can wait a New York minute, Steinberg and Coslet may put together a competitive team in a year or two.

You can't say that Indianapolis Colts owner Robert Irsay isn't a gambling man. He's the guy who traded Cornelius Bennett, now a Pro Bowl fixture at linebacker, in the three-way deal with the Bills and the Rams that made Eric Dickerson the unlikeliest of Hoosiers. For this year's top draft pick, he traded another Pro Bowler, offensive tackle Chris Hinton, wide receiver Andre Rison and the Colts' number-one pick next year to get lllini quarterback Jeff George. Then he signed George to a $15,000,000 contract, the highest amount ever paid to a rookie. In other words, Irsay bet the farm.

How's this going to turn out? Hinton has only about five great seasons left: Rison has an entire career; next year's number-one pick, who knows? Dicker-son? He wants to be traded or retire. George? Well, ask the Michigan Wolverines. They played him and their best solution was to hit him early if they could, and if they couldn't, hit him late, because he hates being tackled.

The Colts will likely straighten things out with Dickerson, since no one else seems to want him in a trade. Dickerson will shoulder the offensive burden because George won't be ready as a pro passer. Elway wasn't ready when he was first drafted, and neither was virtually any other highly touted rookie Q.B. in recent memory, with the exception of Dan Marino.

It's astonishing to think that the New England Patriots and the Chicago Bears, who combined for a measly 11 wins between them last season, played for the Super Bowl only four years ago. The Patriots never seemed to recover from that crushing defeat. And coach Raymond Berry, once New England's darling, paid the price and has been replaced by Rod Rust, who at 61 is the oldest head coach in the league.

New England has plenty of excuses for last season's failures. Linebacker Andre Tippett, defensive end Garin Veris and cornerback Ronnie Lippett were all out with injuries before the season began. Wide receiver Stanley Morgan missed seven games with a broken leg: Irving Fryar missed five. Running back John Stephens, who had been a terror in 1988, inexplicably gained more than 100 yards only twice.

New England's biggest problem was finding someone to play quarterback. Berry tried four players who all had losing records: Tony Eason (1-2), Doug Flutie (1-2), Steve Grogan (2-4) and Marc Wilson (1-3). Eason and Flutie are gone and most New England fans wish Grogan and Wilson were as well. The team, by its own admission, needed to draft a franchise quarterback but managed only to select LSU's Tommy Hodson on the third round. There have been franchise quarterbacks such as Joe Montana drafted on the third round. It's unlikely that the Patriots will be so lucky with Hodson.

Rust has a formidable task ahead of him and may find himself eligible for Social Security before New England is a winner.

This Season's Winners

American Football Conference

Eastern Division..........Buffalo Bills

Central Division..........Cincinnati Bengals

Western Division..........Kansas City Chiefs

Wild Cards..........Cleveland Browns

San Diego Chargers

A.F.C. Champion..........Cincinnati Bengals

National Football Conference

Eastern Division..........Philadelphia Eagles

Central Division..........Minnesota Vikings

Western Division..........San Francisco 49ers

Wild Cards..........New York Giants

Los Angeles Rams

N.F.C. Champion..........San Francisco 49ers

Super Bowl Champion..........San Francisco 49ERS

Playboy's 1990 Pre-season All-Pro Team

Offense

Joe Montana, San Francisco..........Quarterback

Christian Okoye, Kansas City..........Running Back

Barry Sanders, Detroit..........Running Back

Jerry Rice, San Francisco..........Wide Receiver

Sterling Sharpe, Green Bay..........Wide Receiver

Keith Jackson, Philadelphia..........Tight End

Anthony Munoz, Cincinnati..........Tackle

Gary Zimmerman, Minnesota..........Tackle

Tom Newberry, Los Angeles Rams..........Guard

Mike Munchak, Houston..........Guard

Jay Hilgenberg, Chicago..........Center

Defense

Reggie White, Philadelphia..........End

Chris Doleman, Minnesota..........End

Keith Millard, Minnesota..........Tackle

Michael Dean Perry, Cleveland..........Tackle

Lawrence Taylor, New York Giants..........Outside Linebacker

Tim Harris, Green Bay..........Outside Linebacker

John Offerdahl, Miami..........Inside Linebacker

Albert Lewis, Kansas City..........Cornerback

Frank Minnifield, Cleveland..........Cornerback

David Fulcher, Cincinnati..........Safety

Ronnie Lott, San Francisco..........Safety

Specialties

Eddie Murray, Detroit..........Place Kicker

Sean Landeta, New York Giants..........Punter

Rod Woodson, Pittsburgh..........Kick Returner

David Meggett, New York Giants..........Punt Returner

Ron Wolfley, Phoenix..........Special Teams

Rookie of the year

Keith McCants, Tampa Bay..........Linebacker

Western Division

National Football Conference

San Francisco 49ers..........13--3

Los Angeles Rams..........11--5

New Orleans Saints..........7--9

Atlanta Falcons..........4--12

Central Division

National Football Conference

Minnesota Vikings..........11--5

Detroit Lions..........9--7

Green Bay Packers..........9--7

Chicago Bears..........7--9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers..........5--11

"Parcells has tried to build another Super Bowl champ; as he finds one piece of the puzzle, he loses another."

Eastern Division

National Football Conference

Philadelphia Eagles..........10--6

New York Giants..........10--6

Washington Redskins..........9--7

Dallas Cowboys..........4--12

Phoenix Cardinals..........4--12

Western Division

American Football Conference

Kansas City Chiefs..........11--5

San Diego Chargers..........10--6

Denver Broncos..........9--7

Los Angeles Raiders..........7--9

Seattle Seahawks..........5--11

Playboy's 1990 All--Pro Underhyped Team

great players who haven't gotten much press

Offense

Mark Rypien, Washington..........Quarterback

Marion Butts, San Diego..........Running Back

Dalton Hilliard, New Orleans..........RunningBack

Mark Carrier, Tampa Bay..........Wide Receiver

Anthony Miller, San Diego..........Wide Receiver

Ferrell Edmunds, Miami..........Tight End

John Alt, Kansas City..........Tackle

Paul Gruber, Tampa Bay..........Tackle

Randall McDaniel, Minnesota..........Guard

Steve Wisniewski, Los Angeles Raiders..........Guard

Courtney Hall, San Diego..........Center

Defense

Jon Hand, Indianapolis..........End

Lee Williams, San Diego..........End

Jerry Ball, Detroit..........Tackle

Vaughan Johnson, New Orleans..........Inside Linebacker

Michael Walter, San Francisco..........Inside Linebacker

Billy Ray Smith, San Diego..........Outside Linebacker

Chris Martin, Kansas City..........Outside Linebacker

Maurice Hurst, New England..........Cornerback

Eric Allen, Philadelphia..........Cornerback

Bubba McDowell, Houston..........Safety

Bennie Blades, Detroit..........Safety

Specialties

Jason Staurovsky, New England..........Place Kicker

Rich Camarillo, Phoenix..........Punter

James Dixon, Dallas..........Kick Returner

Clarence Verdin, Indianapolis..........Punt Returner

Harry Sydney, San Francisco..........Special Teams

Central Division

American Football Conference

Cincinnati Bengals..........11--5

Cleveland Browns..........10--6

Houston Oilers..........9--7

Pittsburgh Steelers..........7--9

Eastern Division

American Football Conference

Buffalo Bills..........11--5

Miami Dolphins..........8--8

New York Jets..........5--11

Indianapolis Colts..........5--11

New England Patriots..........4--12