Playboy's Pro Football Forecast

Before We Begin, we want to make some promises: We promise not to refer to any football game as "the mother of" anything. We promise not to compare ineptly thrown footballs to Scud missiles and we will studiously avoid any discussion of General Norman Schwarzkopf's potential as a coach. Further, you won't find a single Zeke Mowatt/Patriot missile joke. And we'll resist any diatribe about N.F.L. commissioner Paul Tagliabue's boo-boo over the Phoenix/Super Bowl site/Martin Luther King, Jr., holiday brouhaha. We also promise not to bore you with the final standings of last spring's first World League of America Football season.

As long as we're at it, let's skip the howling over how overpaid some football players are and how, off the field, not all would qualify for Mister Rogers' neighborhood. Some players are models of comportment, some are jerks. We shouldn't expect them to be saints unless they play in New Orleans.

OK, you're asking, if I'm not going to read about that stuff, what else is there? How about some rule changes enacted by N.F.L. owners in the off season? The Ickey Shuffle, invented by Cincinnati fullback Ickey Woods to toast his occasional successes on the field, was ruled a no-no. However, the rule doesn't affect the Benson Boogie, that celebratory dance invented by choreographer and Saints owner Tom Benson.

And, oh, yeah, no talkin' after the game. Participants, who include players, coaches, trainers, doctors and ball boys, and who may or may not include the guys who hold the sticks along the side lines, shall not fraternize in the middle of the field when the game is over. Offenders will be fined. According to New Orleans Saints general manager Jim Finks, chairman of the competition committee, the rule enforcement was needed to eliminate postgame "conventions," where information--about the best restaurants in town--was undoubtedly being exchanged. Finks said that sincerely emotional reunions, such as those between players and/or coaches now on opposing teams, can still be held off the field, outside the dressing rooms--presumably because N.F.L. dressing rooms are so full of female reporters. He said nothing about where insincere reunions could be held.

The in-the-grasp rule was also amended. Instead of whistling a play dead as soon as a quarterback is clearly in the grasp and control of a tackler, officials can now wait to stop play until the safety of the quarterback is in jeopardy--either from an approaching second tackler or from someone strolling onto the field with a firearm.

Then there's the Mark Carrier rule, drawn up after the Bears scored a draft-day coup last season by negotiating with three prospective picks and concluding a deal with one, defensive back Carrier--before he was selected. The coup looked even sweeter when Carrier went on to become N.F.C. Defensive Rookie of the Year. The new rule prohibits teams from negotiating with potential draft picks before actually selecting them--unless a team owns the first over-all pick, or is moments from selecting a player on draft day, or finds a way to sneak around the rule when nobody's looking.

Now, with the new rules straight, what else is there? Well, we could always take a look at this season's likely winners and losers. And, remember, we didn't promise not to make fun of Buddy Ryan.

It has been seven long years since an A.F.C. team won the Super Bowl. After years of Broncos futility, it was the Bills' turn in Super Bowl XXV. They lost, but it was no blowout. Now the big guys from the N.F.C. are growing wary. "The Bills play D like an N.F.C. club," a few have remarked. A few other A.F.C. teams--the Chiefs, the Dolphins, the Raiders--aren't far behind. It won't be long before the Lombardi Trophy, symbol of pro-football dominance, sits on the mantel of an A.F.C. franchise.

For the Buffalo Bills, last season was nearly perfect--15 wins in 19 regular-and post-season games, dream seasons for quarterback Jim Kelly and running back Thurman Thomas. But two little words have echoed in the ears of Bills coach Mary Levy since the clock showed 0:04, with the Bills down 20--19 to the Giants last January 27: wide right. That's where Scott Norwood kicked the ball as the season ended. Still, Norwood isn't to blame for Buffalo's Super Bowl defeat. The Giants found the perfect way to defend the Bills' explosive offense: They didn't let it on the field, holding the ball for more than 40 minutes.

Going into this season, the Bills are full of talent and hope. Kelly, who threw 24 touchdown passes and just nine interceptions, is backed up by the capable Frank Reich. Thomas, who finished just seven yards behind league leader Barry Sanders, can be spelled by underrated Kenneth Davis. Wide receiver Andre Reed is young and swift; James Lofton, old and swift. The offensive line, anchored by center Kent Hull, allowed only 27 sacks last season.

On defense, Bruce Smith is really as good as he says he is. Cornelius Bennett should have a super year at linebacker. The Bills drafted Henry Jones from Illinois to beef up the defensive backfield.

The Bills must maintain their one-happy-family atmosphere--a welcome relief last season after previous clubhouse bickering. The defensive line must get stronger up the middle so it can stop the power-possession style of attack the Giants threw at the Bills. All the pieces are there--all Buffalo has to do is do it.

The Miami Dolphins made the play-offs last season for the first time since 1985, squelching rumors that coaching legend Don Shula was looking for a retirement condo next door to Tom Landry. Shula seems to have patched things up with Dan Marino, the quarterback with the perfect-fitting gloves. Marino, who in recent years expressed a desire to be traded to a Super Bowl contender, has evidently decided the Dolphins may now be one. And he may well be the reason. Marino led his team to a respectable 12--4 season and a (continued on page 170)Pro Football Forecast(continued from page 132) play-off win over the Chiefs, and his stats weren't bad, either--more than 3500 yards, 21 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions.

In last year's draft, Shula added offensive linemen Richmond Webb and Keith Sims to protect Marino. They were instant sensations, and Webb went to the Pro Bowl as a rookie. In the 1991 draft, the Dolphins chose Randal Hill, a speedy wide receiver out of the University of Miami, to give Marino a target to hit deep. Mark Duper and Mark Clayton, both 30-something, must rebound for one more good season.

The rap on the Dolphins the past few years has been weak defense. Defensive end Jeff Cross (11 1/2 sacks) and undersized linebacker John Offerdahl are prime players, but Cross needs help on the line and the Dolphins need some new bodies to fill in for linebackers Cliff' Odom, questionable because of injury, and Hugh Green, a ripe 32 years old.

The New York Jets still aren't a very good football team, but at least they play harder than the crashing bores who have recently embarrassed the Big Apple. Credit coach Bruce Coslet and general manager Dick Steinberg, the new kids on the block, who demand more sweat from the jets and get it. Jets sweat resulted in two extra wins in 1990--1991, 22 fewer sacks allowed and ten more made and the fourth-best rushing average (132.9 yards per game) in the N.F.L.

Retooling the anemic jets, however, is a formidable job. Quarterback Ken O'Brien is simply filling in until either Troy Taylor or number-one draft pick Browning Nagle settles in as the new number one. Blair Thomas could be a great running back if the offensive line could open a few holes.

The defensive line has tackle Dennis Byrd (13 sacks) and not much else. The jets' linebacking is unremarkable, and only Erik McMillan is impressive in the defensive backfield. Overall defensively, the Jets' finished 23rd.

Looking at the numbers, it's hard to understand how the Indianapolis Colts won seven games. They had the second-worst over-all offense in football, the third-worst defense. The Colts landed hometown hero Jeff George, the quarterback of the future, but mortgaged their future by giving up Pro Bowl lineman Chris Hinton, wide receiver Andre Rison and this year's number-one draft pick.

George had, under the conditions, a pretty good rookie season--16 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. The conditions were lousy pass protection and a weak rushing game. He should be congratulated for showing up every week.

Running back Eric Dickerson is not the superstar he was, due partly to age, partly to a lack of blocking. However, Jessie Hester (17.1-yard average per catch) was a welcome surprise at receiver.

The guys who were supposed to be Indy's studs on defense didn't play like it. End Jon Hand was a major disappointment (only three and a half sacks) after a contract holdout, and linebacker Fredd Young--obtained from Seattle a couple of years ago for two number-one picks--has retired.

Why would a nice guy like Dick MacPherson leave a cushy job at Syracuse--where he had built the Orangemen into a top-20 team--for a foxhole at Foxboro? Why would Sam Jankovich trade the sun and sand and status of his post as athletic director of perennially top-ranked Miami to run a team whose prospects look dimmer than its 1--15 record? Evidently, New England Patriots owner Victor Kiam found time between bad jokes to sweet-talk both men into taking on the biggest rebuilding challenge in pro football.

The Patriots make good tabloid copy, but they are awful at football. First, they have no quarterback. Rookie Tommy Hodson survived six starts last season; the Pats have added Hugh Millen, who wasn't very good with Atlanta. The offensive line was ineffective, giving up 58 sacks, and so was the running game (New England finished 25th in the league).

On defense, first-round draft choice Chris Singleton didn't contribute at linebacker after a lengthy contract holdout. An uninspired Andre Tippett under-performed, recording just three and a half sacks. The defensive backfield got beat often and deep.

Short of hoping for the Second Coming, the Patriots should concentrate on developing young talent. Get rid of Irving Fryar, who has always been more trouble than he is worth. Give Hodson and draft pick Scott Zolak long looks at quarterback.

Cincinnati may dominate the A.F.C. Central (10--2 versus divisional opponents the past two seasons), but can the Bengals maul anyone else (7--13 outside the division)? Houston wins most statistical categories on offense but can't win the big games. The Steelers are the best team in football when opponents throw the ball (Pittsburgh led the N.F.L. in pass defense) but can't pass themselves. And in one season, Cleveland went from perennial contender to everybody's favorite punching bag.

Coach Sam Wyche thinks this could be the year for his Cincinnati Bengals. "Boomer Esiason, running back James Brooks and receivers Eddie Brown and Tim McGee are all in their prime," says Wyche, who somehow found time to talk between his running battles with football commissioner Paul Tagliabue. Wyche is right. This is the year of the tiger in the Central Division.

Esiason, despite 22 interceptions (many of them on tips and deflections), threw for 24 touchdowns last year. He seems more comfortable than ever as the man in charge. Brooks had another 1000-yard season and is a superbly conditioned athlete, despite the fact that he's 32 years old. Fullback Ickey Woods, fully recovered from a knee injury, should be back to his Super Bowl XXIII form. McGee and Brown are gifted receivers who didn't see enough of the ball--Esiason's pass protection seldom held up long enough for them to get downfield.

Line play was the team's bugaboo last season. The Bengals got burned by the Raiders' Al Davis, who stole guard Max Montoya from under their noses on Plan B. Massive Anthony Muñoz suffered a torn rotator cuff. Guard Bruce Reimers broke his foot. On defense, the Bengals lacked presence up front. Their entire defensive line combined for just 11 sacks and allowed opponents a hefty 4.7 yards per rush.

Muñoz is an absolute necessity if the offensive line is to get back to championship form. The dominating defensive lineman the Bengals needed wasn't available in the draft, so they settled for linebacker Alfred Williams. He will improve the pass rush. Finally, Wyche must avoid butting heads with Tagliabue and the media if his team is to boom this year.

If you think the forward pass is the path to glory in the N.F.L., you have to love coach Jack Pardee's run-and-shoot offense. The Houston Oilers' numbers are mind-boggling: more than 5000 yards passing (that's almost three miles), 37 touchdowns via airmail, a pass-completion percentage of more than 60 percent. The top gun of this aerial attack is, of course, Pro Bowl Q.B. Warren Moon. Only a dislocated thumb in a game against Cincinnati in week 15 kept Moon from toppling Dan Marino's records for passes attempted and completed and yardage gained.

If you're a wide receiver who likes to keep busy, Houston is the place. The Oilers' "Fab Four"--Haywood Jeffires, Drew Hill, Ernest Givins and Curtis Duncan--split 286 receptions almost evenly among them.

There's more to the Oilers, however, than offensive explosiveness. The defense, headed by tackle Ray Childress, was 11th overall in the league--eighth against the rush. Last year's first-round choice, linebacker Lamar Lathon, should make Houston even better this year.

So if everything's so rosy, how come the Oilers won only nine games? Why just a second-place finish this year? Because they are consistently inconsistent. Last season, Houston crushed the Bengals 48--17, only to lose to the lowly Jets and struggling Rams two and three weeks later. When crunch time came in the play-offs, the Oilers turned their earlier 31-point win against Cincinnati into a 27-point loss.

Moon at the helm for all 16 games would be helpful, though backup Cody Carlson isn't bad. Houston must learn to win on the road--and in bad weather--if Moon and company hope to shoot for the big prize.

A couple of years ago, the Pittsburgh Steelers' Chuck Noll was just another old-guard coach and a likely prospect for Sun City retirement-condo salesmen. Then Pittsburgh got Steely again. It wasn't exactly a return to the days of Terry Bradshaw and the Steel Curtain, but Noll's club fought its way back to respectability. The rebuilding job may not be done, but Noll is busy hammering away.

Quarterback Bubby Brister should shine in the second year of offensive coordinator Joe Walton's complex system. Eric Green, the huge tight end drafted out of Liberty University last year, hit it big, with 34 receptions for an 11.4-yard average. But the Steelers are weak at wide receiver, where Louis Lipps, not as quick as he once was, is the only proven talent.

Noll is unhappy with running back Tim Worley, who had two disappointing years since being drafted number one. Merril Hoge, who has carried the mail reliably from the fullback slot, may shift to halfback, giving Barry Foster more playing time.

Unless you live in Pittsburgh, you probably haven't heard of most of the Steelers' defensive players--nose tackle Gerald Williams, linebackers David Little, Bryan Hinkle and Hardy Nickerson. They're not famous, but they are fierce. The Steelers were the number-one defense in football last year, holding opponents to a mere 257.2-yards-per-game average. Their one marquee player, cornerback Rod Woodson, is as good as his reputation--and he's a top kick returner.

Noll needs consistency from his offense. Worley must get serious and play like a number-one pick. The return of defensive end Aaron Jones, who missed nine games last year with a broken foot, will make the defense even better.

Owner Art Modell and his Cleveland Browns would like to forget last season. The once-proud Browns set club records for losses (13), points allowed (462) and fewest points scored (228). Coach Bud Carson was canned after Buffalo creamed the Browns at home 42--0 in week nine. Offensive coordinator Jim Shofner took over and the Browns responded by finishing 1--6, proving that Carson wasn't the only problem.

Cleveland's headaches began before training camp. Some players held out; some reported late. Others, uninspired by the Browns' prospects, retired. Cleveland went into the season unprepared and unhappy.

Quarterback Bernie Kosar, never known for his mobility, took a season-long beating behind an undermanned offensive line. He failed physically and psychologically, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns for the first time in his career. The defense joined the retreat and the season was lost.

Owner Art Modell started to look suspiciously like George Steinbrenner when he hired his fourth head coach in four years, former Giants defensive coordinator Bill Belichick. Belichick, who says he enjoys challenges, should have a ball with the Browns.

The bright spots are Kosar, still only 27, who reads defenses as well as any other quarterback in football; receivers Webster Slaughter and Reggie Langhorne; and running back Kevin Mack, a quick 230-pound truck. The defense has nose tackle Michael Dean Perry--all the talent of brother "Fridge" without the calories--and loads of opportunities for newcomers.

If the Browns show up with a decent attitude, they will win more than the three games they won last season. The offensive line must protect Kosar. Belichick's power-running scheme could help take the pressure off Kosar's leaden legs. The Browns also need a capable place kicker and punter.

Was it only a few years back that the A.F.C. West was pro football's weakest division? This season, it could be the strongest. The Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers all have defenses as hard as nails. The Seahawks finished last season above .500 and Dan Reeves is too good a coach--and John Elway too good a quarterback--for the Broncos to stay down for long.

The Kansas City Chiefs (11--5) posted their best record since 1969, thanks to a strong rushing game, a gutsy performance by quarterback Steve DeBerg and a ferocious pass rush (60 sacks led the N.F.L.). Coach Marty Schottenheimer isn't satisfied: "We're not anywhere near where we'd like to be. There's no satisfaction at this point." A date in Minneapolis in January will be the only cure for Schottenheimer's malaise.

Defensive end Neil Smith is a key to the Chiefs' future success. A number-one draft pick in 1988, Smith may finally be ready to spread his wings (he has an arm span of 7'11 1/2"). Playing next to Smith is nose tackle Dan Saleaumua--perhaps the best Plan B acquisition ever.

The linebacking, with Derrick Thomas, Chris Martin and Percy Snow, can only get better. The secondary stars Albert Lewis, who blocked (our punts last season on special teams, and the aging but still effective Deron Cherry.

After 14 years as the consummate journeyman quarterback, DeBerg demonstrated both his skill and his courage last season. He finished as the league's third-ranked passer, attempting 444 passes and completing 258, with only four interceptions. He fractured a finger on his left hand in a game against Houston; a national television audience cringed as the digit was yanked straight by a trainer on the side line. DeBerg, who afterward referred to himself as Freddie Kruger, played the remainder of the season with a cast on his hand.

The Chiefs need to score more touchdowns instead of settling for field goals inside opponents' 20-yard lines, and the defense must stop the opposition when the chips are on the table. Kansas City blew leads in the final five minutes of four of its five regular-season losses last year. Will Schottenheimer--frustrated so many times in his years at Cleveland--finally get over the hump at Kansas City? Don't bet against it.

After four seasons of staying home for the play-offs, a 13--5 record and a trip to the A.F.C. title game should have tasted sweet to the Los Angeles Raiders. Instead, the final course was bitter--L.A. was annihilated by Buffalo in what Raiders defensive tackle Bob Golic accurately called a debacle. The Raiders have spent the off season biding their time and licking their wounds.

Coach Art Shell will again use the Silver-and-Black legacy of toughness to inspire his team. Psychologist Shell turned quarterback Jay Schroeder around, when only a year ago, he appeared ready for early retirement. Schroeder threw for 19 T.D.s with only nine interceptions, ending L.A.'s quarterback lottery of recent years.

Of course, only Bo Jackson and his doctors know whether Bo will run again. Marcus Allen and former 49er Roger Craig will get more time if he doesn't. The Raiders' offensive line--particularly Steve Wisniewski, Don Mosebar and Max Montoya--can open holes for whoever happens to be carrying the ball.

On defense, Greg Townsend and a healthy Howie Long give the Raiders the authority up front they've lacked the past few seasons.

Owner Al Davis did some gambling on draft day--using his fourth-round pick on Raghib Ismail just in case the Rocket gets tired of playing second fiddle to a hockey stick in Canada and comes home to the N.F.L.

It's impossible to forget Dan Fouts, "Air" Coryell and the glory days of the San Diego Chargers. Those Chargers were all pass offense and no defense. The Chargers of today are one of the most hard-nosed defensive teams in football. The passing game? Well, it has room for improvement.

Pass rushing is a Chargers defensive forte. Defensive end Leslie O'Neal had 13 1/2 sacks, while Lee Williams and Butt Grossman were busy occupying offensive linemen. Second-year player Junior Seau is a Pro Bowl linebacker in the making. Overall, the Chargers' defense finished fifth in the league. Its only problem was an offense that gave away held position because of frequent mistakes.

The man in the hot seat is Billy Joe Tolliver, who has yet to show the consistency needed from a starting N.F.L. quarterback. And so far, general manager Bobby Beathard has failed to find an experienced backup.

The Chargers' running game is in good shape, thanks to runaway train Marion Butts, who finished as the second leading rusher (1225 yards) in the A.F.C. San Diego needs another wide receiver to take some pressure off Anthony Miller. Nose tackle Joe Phillips, injured in an off-the-field assault last season, bolsters the middle of an already stubborn Chargers defense.

The Seattle Seahawks, racked by injuries and short on talent, still finished 9--7, thanks to superb coaching by the fashionably svelte Chuck Knox and defensive coordinator Tom Catlin.

Seven linebackers went down; still, Catlin patched together a defense that finished ninth overall in the league. The key to his success was switching to a four-three scheme that helped aging Jacob Green have one of his best years ever (12 1/2 sacks). Another inspiration was Catlin's switching outside linebacker Tony Woods to defensive end. Now, with linebackers David Wyman and Terry Wooden recovered from injuries, he has even more options.

Scoring points will be Seattle's biggest challenge. Dave Krieg, who had 20 interceptions and 16 fumbles, is still the number-one quarterback. Seattle took 6'7" Q.B. Dan McGwire with its first pick in the draft this year, but he's a long-term project. Running backs John L. Williams and Derrick Fenner make a happy tandem (1573 yards combined), but the Sea-hawks' offensive line, except for tackle Andy Heck, is going geriatric. And Knox has to be careful not to put that weight back on.

Which was worse for the Denver Broncos--getting the stuffing knocked out of them by the 49ers two years in a row in the Super Bowl or finishing at the bottom of the division (5--11)? Head coach Dan Reeves would pick the former, but getting back to the Super Bowl will be a tough climb.

Quarterback John Elway is coming off a mediocre season: 14 interceptions and only 15 touchdowns, not bad for some guys but nothing special for a superstar. Elway was sacked a conference-leading 43 times, partly because of his willingness to scramble, partly because his offensive line left him no choice. With tackle Gerald Perry traded to the Rams, that line looks even shakier.

The Denver defense was anything but intimidating after injuries revealed its lack of depth. Cornerback Tyrone Braxton returns at full strength, but defensive end Alphonso Carreker is questionable after back surgery. The Broncos jumped at the chance to draft linebacker Mike Croel out of Nebraska as the fourth selection in the draft's first round. Safeties Steve Atwater and Dennis Smith are big hitters but sometimes get burned in deep coverage.

Reeves has to refocus his team. The Broncos, accustomed to winning, were not happy campers last season. Perry must be replaced on the offensive line. Rookie Croel should step into a starting role immediately.

It was no surprise that last season's Super Bowl winner came from the N.F.C. East--the toughest and most entertaining division in football. Not only did the Giants win the gold, they won our unofficial best-performance-in-the-face-of-adversity award, having lost several key players--including star quarterback Phil Simms--before the play-offs. The Eagles were the clear winners in the soap-opera category, for the Buddy Ryan story. The Redskins simply got no respect, while the Cowboys switched from being the joke of the division to its most promising up-and-comer. And the Cardinals? Well, they're secretly plotting a realignment of the conferences so that they don't have to play the other teams in the Eastern Division twice every season.

The Washington Redskins will go to Minneapolis for Super Bowl XXVI if quarterback Mark Rypien stays healthy for an entire season. He was 13--4 in his past 17 starts. Last year, despite missing six games, he still passed for 2070 yards and 16 touchdowns.

The Posse--Art Monk, Gary Clark and Ricky Sanders--totaled an astounding 199 receptions for more than 2600 yards. Redskins fans don't call the offensive line The Hogs anymore; they just call it good. Earnest Byner and Gerald Riggs are a formidable one-two punch at running back, and the Redskins added USC's Ricky Ervins with their second pick in the draft.

On defense, Washington, who traditionally deals high draft picks for veterans, used a rare first-round choice to nab Michigan State defensive lineman Bobby Wilson. The rest of the defense is a daunting blend of youth and experience.

Matt Millen at linebacker and Terry Hoage at safety--both added through Plan B--have to play well. The Redskins have settled on Kelly Goodburn as punter to replace Ralf Mojsiejenko, who was waived last season.

Was Bill Parcells' sudden resignation as coach of the New York Giants a symptom of mid-life crisis or simply brilliant marketing strategy? No chump, Parcells peered into his crystal ball and saw a Scott Norwood kick go through the up-rights--and the Giants and himself turn to clay. Remember that the Giants followed their last Super Bowl win with a last-place finish in the division. Why take a chance on failure when by stepping down, Parcells automatically enshrines himself in the John Madden-Bill Walsh TV-commentator club, wherein you get paid large amounts of money for reflecting on your past successes?

Parcells leaves successor Ray Handley a team perfectly suited to Handley's conservative football philosophy. A former Parcells assistant, Handley likes to control the game and the Giants are a ball-control team, a fact they demonstrated in the first nine minutes and 29 seconds of the second half of Super Bowl XXV with a grinding drive that ended in the go-ahead touchdown that shattered the Bills' confidence.

Handley's biggest decision will be whether to play veteran Phil Simms or emerging star Jeff Hostetler. Simms has recovered from the foot injury that sidelined him in week 14 and Hostetler is ready to prove that his day in the Super Bowl sun was no fluke.

The Giants have a massive offensive line to protect either quarterback. In fact, tackles Jumbo Elliott and Doug Riesenberg, guards William Roberts and Eric Moore and center Bart Oates were the unsung heroes of Super Bowl XXV, enabling the Giants to hog the ball and win the game.

However, it's still the Giants' defense, second-best overall in the N.F.L., that is the strength of the team. And their linebacking corps--Lawrence Taylor, Carl Banks and Pepper Johnson--is the heart of that strength.

The biggest problem the Giants face is history; it's tough to repeat as Super Bowl champ. Three and three in the last six games of the regular season, they never blew opponents away. As Parcells knew well, a few fumbles or missed kicks could drop them to third or lower fast.

Buddy Ryan went on an Ultra Slim-Fast diet and lost 40 pounds. Philadelphia Eagles owner Norm Braman went on his own diet after his team again dropped its first-round play-off game and lost Buddy Ryan. Actually, Braman was contemplating Ryan's demise after the Eagles stumbled to a 1--3 start. Then the team got back on its feet and into the play-offs by riding the arms and legs of quarterback Randall Cunningham, who threw for 3466 yards, 30 touchdowns and only 13 interceptions. In his spare time, Cunningham rushed for 942 yards and five touchdowns.

The Eagles' lackluster showing against the Redskins in the play-offs--during which Ryan benched Cunningham for a rusty Jim McMahon--was the final straw for Braman, who didn't much care for Ryan's style, anyway. He first installed offensive coordinator Rich Kotite as head coach, then hired former Cleveland coach Bud Carson to run the defense.

Carson inherits a defense that includes Reggie White, the finest defensive end in football, plus hard-hitting linebacker Seth Joyner and stellar corner man Eric Allen.

Offensively, the Eagles' world revolves around Cunningham. Keith Byars runs, blocks, catches and even passes (four times last season for four touchdowns). Other than All-Pro tight end Keith Jackson, though, the receivers are average.

Since there is no viable backup at quarterback, the Eagles need Cunningham healthy and available for 16-plus games. The defense, a bunch of renegades under Ryan, will have to play with more discipline under the stodgier Carson. Philly fans can only hope that Ryan wasn't as good a coach as he said he was.

If the front runners in the East hear footsteps behind them, it's the sound of cowboy boots. The Dallas Cowboys, only two years ago the league's door mat and laughingstock, won seven games last season and nearly made the play-offs. No joke, they're even better now.

Hatred of the Cowboys has always been tough to fathom. Sure, their America's Team moniker was obnoxious, but lots of fans hated them simply for being good. When the Cowboys stopped winning, their fans hated them for being bad. They wanted Landry fired for losing and when new owner Jerry Jones obliged them, they decided they loved Landry and hated Jones. Go figure.

However you feel about Jones and head coach Jimmy Johnson, there's no disputing they came to play. Among their many personnel moves: trading Herschel Walker for a bunch of players and draft picks; drafting quarterback Troy Aikman; picking quarterback Steve Walsh in the supplemental draft; trading Walsh for more draft picks; signing 16 players under Plan B in 1990, seven of whom made the team; trading up for over-all number-one pick Russell Maryland and down for a slew of lower-round choices. And in next year's draft, the Cowboys have two more number-one choices and seven picks in the first three rounds.

There's a lesson in all this for the current door mats of pro football: It's still possible to wheel and deal your team into contention.

Aikman had shoulder surgery in the off season. Fully recovered, he is a budding superstar. Running back Emmitt Smith gained 937 yards last year despite a pre-season contract holdout, while the Cowboys added rookie Alvin Harper to an already speedy corps of wide receivers.

The Cowboys are probably a year away from making a run at the East title, but they can bushwhack the division if Aikman's wing is completely healed, if the offensive line comes together and if Maryland plays up to his number-one potential.

When you finish last in a tough division and the team immediately ahead of you is the rapidly improving Cowboys, you have to roll the dice. That's exactly what the Phoenix Cardinals did when they chose defensive lineman Eric Swann with the sixth pick in the first round of the draft. Swann didn't play a down in college, because he failed to score 700 on his S.A.T. (which doesn't say much for the S.A.T., since Swann is both intelligent and articulate). He's also 6'4" and frighteningly fast for a man who weighs 310 pounds. Perhaps the Cards felt lucky after last year's draft, when they stole running back Johnny Johnson, who ran for 926 yards and made the Pro Bowl.

There are other bright spots on the Redbird horizon. Quarterback Timm Rosenbach showed signs of shaking the new-kid jitters last winter, passing for 682 yards and six touchdowns in the last two regular-season games. Running back Anthony Thompson proved himself after Johnson was hurt. Strong safety Tim McDonald, the team's leading tackler and interceptor, is one of the league's best. Coach Joe Bugel kept team spirits high despite only five wins and has the confidence of owner Bill Bidwill.

Swann, the Cardinals' long shot, has to prove a winner. Dexter Manley, once a premiere pass rusher, has to show he has something left. The defensive line must play over its head, and the special teams, once a strength, must regain their form if Phoenix is to rise from the ashes.

Let's face it. Pro football's legendary black-and-blue division is now mostly mediocre. The Vikings, Lions, Bucs and Packers all finished 6--10 last season. And the Bears, who beat only one opponent who ended the season over .500, weren't nearly as good as their 11--5 record.

The best of the group are the Chicago Bears, due in no small part to coach Mike Ditka, who, when he maintains his cool, is one of the best motivators in football. The Bears started fast a year ago (nine wins in their first ten games) and appeared ready to challenge the 49ers and the Giants until quarterback Jim Harbaugh suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Harbaugh, who has a career completion percentage of 57.9, is back. Soldier Field boo-bird favorite Mike Tomczak is not. He went to Green Bay under Plan B, leaving the man with two first names, Peter Tom Willis, as Harbaugh's backup.

Running back Neal Anderson (1078 yards rushing, 484 receiving) is Chicago's bread-and-butter man, but fullback Brad Muster, with 47 receptions and 664 yards rushing, is an emerging star. And here's Ditka on the Bears' offensive line, the same five who started in the 1985 Bears Super Bowl victory: "Old men with beards--I love 'em all."

On defense, the always-bruising Bears finished a respectable sixth in the N.F.L. Defensive back Mark Carrier set a team record with ten interceptions and won the N.F.C. Defensive Rookie of the Year award. While William Perry showed that he could close the refrigerator door on opposing rushers, eight-time Pro Bowler Mike Singletary began to look human, particularly in pass coverage. Younger linebackers Ron Cox and John Roper will see lots of playing time this year.

Quarterback Harbaugh must get off to a strong start so that Ditka doesn't waffle to P. T. Willis. Anderson has to stay healthy, since the Bears have little depth behind him. Defensive end Richard Dent, one of the premiere pass rushers in football, must play with intensity every week. Ditka has to keep his composure.

The Minnesota Vikings are pro football's classic underachievers. And yet, to the amazement of many, head coach Jerry Burns keeps his job.

The key to a Vikings resurgence won't be coaching but the return of a healthy Keith Millard. He missed the final 11 games of last season with a bum knee. Without Millard in the middle, the outside capabilities of sackmaster Chris Doleman were severely curtailed.

Ray Berry replaces the retired Scott Studwell in the middle. Mike Merriweather is the only other sure starter at linebacker. Strong safety Joey Browner dominates the defensive backfield and cornerback Reggie Rutland is one of the league's best cover men.

On offense, Burns gave running back Herschel Walker a vote of no confidence--pulling him from the game almost every time he fumbled. Walker gained more yards returning kickoffs than he did rushing. Quarterback Wade Wilson, who missed ten games with thumb and shoulder troubles, was unspectacularly replaced by Rich Gannon. The Vikings' receiving corps of Carter squared, Anthony and Cris, plus Hassan Jones, is one of the league's best.

Burns must ignite a winning attitude in the Vikes or seek work as a double for Burgess Meredith. Wilson must show he's the man at quarterback who can make things happen. And Walker has to let everything hang out--Minnesota needs more performance and less potential. Having the easiest schedule in the N.F.L. won't hurt.

The Detroit Lions are sticking with their Silver Stretch offense, a version of the run-and-shoot. Too often last season, it consisted of three quick downs and a run to the side lines. That left a young and promising defensive team on the field too often and too long. The Lions finished dead last in N.F.L. defense--a certain path to destruction.

Injuries to linebacker Chris Spielman and defensive back Bennie Blades, two of the Lions' top cats, exacerbated the team's defensive woes. Spielman and Blades are back, as is morose nose tackle Jerry Ball, who asked to be traded but wasn't. Mike Cofer is on his way to becoming one of the N.F.L.'s dominant linebackers.

On offense, the Lions are blessed with Barry Sanders, the leading rusher in the N.F.L. last season and one of the most exciting runners ever to tie on a pair of cleats. With Rodney Peete and Andre Ware at quarterback, Detroit is rich on youth and potential. Ware, a number-one draft pick last year, missed camp because of a contract holdout and saw little action. Peete played well at times but was often hurt.

The Lions need more offensive weapons, if only to keep opposing teams from ganging up on Sanders. Peete and Ware have to learn to read defenses and the Lions' mangy defense must avoid the injuries that crippled it last season.

The most important new wrinkle for the Green Bay Packers in the off season may have been the shifting of contract-negotiating duties from player personnel director Tom Braatz to C.F.O. Mike Reinfeldt. The Packers have been plagued by an inability to get players signed and into training camp on time. Reinfeldt faces a tough job with quarterback Don Maj-kowski, linebacker Tim Harris, kicker Chris Jacke and backup Q.B. Anthony Dilweg, unsigned as we go to press.

With the Pack out of sync early and a rotator-cuff injury to Majkowski that put him out for the final six games (the Pack finished 1--5), coach Lindy Infante couldn't halt the downfall of a team that had been 10--6 in 1989. "We're not games away but plays away from being successful," says a hopeful Infante.

Running back Darrell Thompson, a Packers first-round pick last year, has failed to live up to expectations. Some of his problems can be attributed to Green Bay's miserable offensive line, which at least was consistent, failing run-blocking and pass-protection assignments with equal abandon.

You've probably never heard of the Pack's defensive linemen, and with good reason. Last year, the Pack was 27th in sacks and 22nd in over-all defense. Linebacker Harris, a big talent with a bigger mouth, fell from 19 1/2 sacks in 1989 to seven last season--nothing to brag about. The Green Bay secondary is neither fast nor young, and the punting (37.4 yards per) is weak.

Nothing is more important to Infante, or more unlikely, than the return of quarterback Majkowski to his 1989 form. Whoever plays Q.B. will need time to put the ball in the hands of All-Pro receiver Sterling Sharpe and the holdouts must all sign before the leaves turn color.

Young, inexperienced but always promising, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished 6--10 last season, their best record since 1984. The Bucs jumped out in promising fashion (4--2) before reverting to form and dropping six in a row--losses that cost coach Ray Perkins his job. Owner Hugh Culverhouse decided to stay in house, promoting assistant Richard Williamson first to interim and then to permanent head coach. When asked why he anointed Williamson, Culverhouse responded, "I'm not sure I have a good answer."

The Bucs aren't sure that Vinny Testaverde, the quarterback who was supposed to save the franchise, can make them a winner. After four seasons in the pros, Testaverde still has a fondness for throwing the ball to the wrong team--he had 18 interceptions last year compared with 17 touchdown passes. Chris Chandler, who cost the Bucs a number-one draft choice in 1992, is ready if Testaverde runs more cold than hot.

Mark Carries, the Bucs' best receiver, had a subpar season: His contract holdout was followed by a season of double coverage and pass protection that didn't hold up long enough for him to go deep.

Tampa Bay's paper-towel defensive line got no quick pickup from the draft; there was little line talent available. Floyd Peters, formerly the Vikings' defensive coordinator, would like to shift the Bucs to a four-three, but he may not have the bodies to do it. Linebackers Keith McCants and Broderick Thomas are his only stars.

It's time for Testaverde to prove he's not a head case. Williamson says, "We want football to be fun." The Bucs will find that it's more fun winning now than thinking about it later.

The San Francisco 49ers continued to dominate the N.F.C. West--and most of the rest of pro football, as well--last season, reeling off ten straight wins to start the year and posting a 14--2 regular-season record. But their three-peat dream fizzled. Now a few cracks have appeared in the castle walls, and soon the rest of the West may storm the ramparts.

Cracks or not, the 49ers are still a very good football team. They will be until quarterback Joe Montana stops throwing passes and heads for the Hall of Fame. And then there's the incomparable Jerry Rice, who had 100 catches for 1502 yards and 13 T.D.s. But when Roger Craig hurt his knee, opposing defenses began to ignore the run, forcing Montana into a career-high 16 interceptions. The 49ers had to press, coming from behind nine times. The defense played brilliantly, with linebacker Charles Haley providing the perspiration and safety Ronnie Lott the inspiration. But the days of 'Niner dominance were numbered, even before Craig fumbled against the Giants in the N.F.C. championship game and San Francisco lost its chance to make history.

Now coach George Seifert, who has lost only four regular-season games in two years, seems to have more questions than answers. Who will replace Craig, Lott and Matt Millen, lost to Plan B? Can offensive tackle Bubba Paris and nose tackle Michael Carter, both well over 300 pounds last year, win the battle of the bulge? Will one of the best quarterbacks in football, Steve Young, be content to watch from the side lines for yet another season? Even owner Eddie DeBartolo, Jr., can't buy enough answers.

If quarterback Chris Miller stays healthy, this may be the year the Atlanta Falcons win more often than they lose--something that hasn't happened since the strike-shortened 1982 season (5--4) Miller was one of the top Q.B.s in the league last season (2735 yards and 17 T.D.s) before breaking his collarbone. Now he's back, with a steel plate and seven screws, and coach Jerry Glanville's go-for-broke mentality will stoke the offense and the defense.

Glanville has installed June Jones, one of the original run-and-shoot innovators, as his offensive coordinator. In Atlanta, it's called the Red Gun. Simply put, it means spreading the field with four wide receivers. The Falcons have a super offensive line to protect Miller and his hardware, headed by six-time Pro Bowler Chris Hinton, five-timer Mike Kenn and four-timer Bill Fralic.

The defense last season was strong against the run (3.3 yards per carry, which was best in the league) and awful against the pass. The Falcons added Tim McKyer, obtained from Miami, who will team with Deion Sanders in the defensive backfield.

If Miller doesn't hold up this year, cancel all bets. Draft pick Brett Favre is talented but hardly ready. A happy and productive Tony Casillas at nose tackle would be a welcome change of pace. Glanville must curtail his tendency to force the Falcons to overplay.

The New Orleans Saints made the play-offs last season. That's a pretty good argument against the three-wild-card-team system introduced last year by the N.F.L. The Saints couldn't or didn't want to sign starting quarterback Bobby Hebert, which forced them to play not-ready-for-prime-time Steve Walsh. They lost premiere running back Dalton Hilliard in game six to a knee injury. The Saints had the third-worst turnover ratio in the N.F.L. (-12), committed 108 penalties on offense and wound up 23rd in total offense and 15th in defense. They finished 8-8 and still made the play-offs. In today's N.F.L., nothing succeeds like mediocrity.

With Hilliard out and Rueben Mayes gimpy after an Achilles'-tendon injury that forced him to miss the entire 1989 season, the bulk of last year's rushing went to the hulking Craig Heyward, who at 260 pounds gained less than three yards per pound for the year.

Renaldo Turnbull and Wayne Martin are the future of the Saints' defensive line. The stars of today are at linebacker--all four have been to the Pro Bowl at one time or another. The secondary misses veteran Dave Waymer, who left for the 49ers under Plan B before last season. Kicker Morten Andersen is one of the best in the business.

Now that Hebert has been signed, Walsh will have a chance to mature somewhere other than in the middle of the field. A healthy Hilliard and a slimmer Heyward would bolster the offense. Someone besides Eric Martin (63 catches) must step forward from the receiving corps. And the Saints must hope their stellar linebacking corps has another good season or two left.

Last season, the Los Angeles Rams proved the corollary of the proposition "You win with defense." They didn't have much and won only five times. It was only the second time the Rams have missed the play-offs since 1983. Coach John Robinson was spared the gallows but had to sacrifice much of his defensive coaching staff to owner Georgia Frontiere. Jeff Fisher is Robinson's new defensive coordinator. He learned his defense as a Bear under Buddy Ryan and will shift the Rams from a three-four to an aggressive four-three. Fisher's problem is that the Rams don't really have much defensive talent beyond cornerback Jerry Gray. They signed five defensive players under Plan B and used their first four draft picks this year for defenders. The long-term defensive picture may look brighter, but the here and now is dreary.

On offense, quarterback Jim Everett shows a disturbing tendency to fold under the slightest hint of defensive pressure. Still, his pals Henry Ellard and Willie Anderson both totaled more than 1000 yards receiving. Running back Cleveland Gary fumbled 12 times and Plan B signee Curt Warner was a bust. The offensive line is still a Rams strength, though Pro Bowlers Jackie Slater and Doug Smith are 36 and 33, respectively. Kicker Mike Lansford was cut loose after a down year and former Houston Oiler Tony Zendejas signed.

Life will seem more worth living in Anaheim only when the defense establishes a more stubborn attitude against the pass. A tough schedule will not help the Rams' cause this season.

Here's hoping your team wins.

This Season's Winners

American Football Conference

Eastern Division..................................................................................Buffalo Bills

Central Division .................................................................................Cincinnati Bengals

Western Division .................................................................................Kansas City Chiefs

Wild Cards ...........................................................................................Miami Dolphins

Houston Oilers

Los Angeles Raiders

A.F.C. Champion ................................................................................Buffalo Bills

National Football Conference

Eastern Division.................................................................................Washington Redskins

Central Division.......................................................................................Chicago Bears

Western Division.................................................................................San Francisco 49ers

Wild Cards...........................................................................................New York Giants

Minnesota Vikings

Philadelphia Eagles

N.F.C. Champion...........................................................................Washington Redskins

Super Bowl Champion........................................................................Buffalo Bills

Playboy's 1991 Pre-Season All-Pro Team

Offense

Joe Montana, San Francisco..........................................................................Quarterback

Barry Sanders, Detroit .................................................................................Running Back

Neal Anderson, Chicago .................................................................................Running Back

Jerry Rice, San Francisco .............................................................................Wide Receiver

Andre Rison, Atlanta...................................................................................Wide Receiver

Keith Jackson, Philadelphia................................................................................Tight End

Randall McDaniel, Minnesota ...................................................................................Guard

Bruce Matthews, Houston .......................................................................................Guard

Jim Lachey, Washington .......................................................................................Tackle

Paul Gruber, Tampa Bay .......................................................................................Tackle

Kent Hull, Buffalo............................................................................................Center

Defense

Reggie White, Philadelphia..................................................................................End

Bruce Smith, Buffalo ............................................................................................End

Ray Childress, Houston........................................................................................Tackle

Derrick Thomas, Kansas City ......................................................................Outside Linebacker

Charles Haley, San Francisco .....................................................................Outside Linebacker

Vaughan Johnson, New Orleans.......................................................................Inside Linebacker

David Little, Pittsburgh...........................................................................Inside Linebacker

Darrell Green, Washington.................................................................................Cornerback

Rod Woodson, Pittsburgh...................................................................................Cornerback

Joey Browner, Minnesota.......................................................................................Safety

Mark Carrier, Chicago ........................................................................................Safety

Specialties

Nick Lowery, Kansas City ..........................................................................Place Kicker

Sean Landeta, New York Giants ................................................................................Punter

David Meggett, New York Giants ........................................................................Kick Returner

Clarence Verdin, Indianapolis .........................................................................Punt Returner

Reyna Thompson, New York Giants .......................................................................Special Teams

Eastern Division

American Football Conference

Buffalo Bills ....................13--3

Miami Dolphins.........................12--4

New York Jets .........................5--11

Indianapolis Colts.....................4--12

New England Patriots ..................3--13

Central Division

American Football Conference

Cincinnati Bengals ...............10--6

Houston Oilers..........................9--7

Pittsburgh Steelers ....................8--8

Cleveland Browns.......................4--12

Western Division

American Football Conference

Kansas City Chiefs ................11--5

Los Angeles Raiders.....................10--6

San Diego Chargers ......................9--7

Seattle Seahawks ........................8--8

Denver Broncos..........................6--10

Eastern Division

National Football Conference

Washington Redskins...............12--4

New York Giants .......................12--4

Philadelphia Eagles ....................9--7

Dallas Cowboys..........................8--8

Phoenix Cardinals......................4--12

Central Division

National Football Conference

Chicago Bears.....................10--6

Minnesota Vikings......................10--6

Detroit Lions .........................6--10

Green Bay Packers .....................4--12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ..................4--12

Western Division

National Football Conference

San Francisco 49ers...............12--4

Atlanta Falcons ........................8--8

New Orleans Saints......................7--9

Los Angeles Rams ......................6--10