Playboy's Pro Football Forecast

This year marks the turning point: NFL team owners and players have finally agreed to free agency. More than 100 NFL free agents changed clubs, and they were rewarded with average pay hikes of more than 125 percent. A number of teams--principally Atlanta, Detroit, Green Bay and the New York Jets--were able to reinvent themselves.

NFL team owners were delighted by all the publicity. Unlike the baseball owners, they aren't whining about rocketing player salaries. There's no need to, for once again, pro football players have cut themselves a raw deal. NFL salaries have long lagged behind those of professional baseball and basketball players, and they'll continue to do so.

Here's why: Starting next year, player salaries can't exceed 67 percent of a team's revenues--that's the salary cap you've been reading about. There's an additional kick to the cap: The following year teams will be allowed to spend only 64 percent of their revenues on players.

Let me break down the cap for you in round numbers. This season, NFL teams will gross in the neighborhood of $45 million apiece. That means the salary cap per team will be about $30 million. The majority of the league's players don't know it yet, but the salary cap is going to work against them.

Some of the NFL's more thoughtful team owners and executives think the cap will quickly produce a caste system. Says Art Modell, who owns the Cleveland Browns, "There are going to be a lot of millionaires, a few guys in the middle and a lot of spear-carriers who will be earning the minimum."

George Young, the frugal general manager of the New York Giants, agrees. "The prices have gone up immensely, but everybody is going to pay the piper, and the piper's name is Mr. Cap," he says.

Mr. Cap will make for a tight fit next year. Many teams have already allocated at least two thirds of the projected 1994 salary cap to 20 players or fewer, leaving only a third of the cap to be divided among more than half the team. The community owners of Green Bay's ball club--never known as a Pack of big spenders--are paying their players $33.9 million this season, which means they'll have to slash their payroll by about $4 million to comply with the cap next year. The New York Jets are in a similar fix. In San Francisco, 49ers president Carmen Policy--whose team is the league's fourth highest-paid--is already spending sleepless nights pondering the coming panic.

Unlike the NBA, which is rich and getting richer, the NFL faces a decline in revenues. My sources tell me that if the networks don't get at least a 15 percent reduction in TV rights fees in the multiyear contract that starts next year, both CBS and NBC are prepared to drop pro football on Sunday afternoons. ABC, while also looking for a reduction, is determined to keep its Monday Night Football, if only for the prestige.

Are the networks ganging up on the NFL? Not at all. Since 1990, ABC, CBS and NBC have pumped more than $750 million a year into the NFL coffers. They now project a combined $450 million loss on their investment. They'll pay less in the new contract now being negotiated. That means the salary caps probably won't rise. They may even get lower.

While Mr. Cap will eventually alter league chemistry, he hasn't yet weakened the NFC's Eastern Division, home of five of the past seven Super Bowl winners, including the past three. The winner this season will come from the same division. I'm picking the Cowboys to repeat as NFC titleholders and then go on to gun down their cousins from Houston in a Texas-style Super Bowl shoot-out. That will make it ten straight years in which the NFC has produced the NFL's champion. Here's how I see the conferences shaping up:

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I predicted on television in 1989 that Jimmy Johnson would lead the (continued on page 154) Football Forecast (continued from page 110) Cowboys to a Super Bowl title within five years. He did it in four, which only deepens my respect for his coaching wizardry. Now the youngest team in the NFL (average age: 27), Dallas' future is all blue sky. If the salary cap doesn't interfere, this could become a dynasty.

Last season, his fourth in the league, quarterback Troy Aikman threw for 3445 yards, with 23 touchdowns and only 14 interceptions. If his herniated disk heals as quickly as he says it will, he'll ride tall in the saddle again. If not, six-year vet Hugh Millen will enjoy the chance to hit deep threat Michael Irvin (78 receptions for 1396 yards in 1992) and short-yardage specialist Jay Novacek (68 for 630), who continue to get better.

Dallas' potent passing attack is complemented by a ground game led by the extraordinary Emmitt Smith. Smith scored 18 touchdowns last season (the most in the NFL) and won his second straight rushing title by racking up 1713 yards (which broke Tony Dorsett's club record of 1646).

However flashy its offense, Dallas' greatest strength is its top-rated defense. The 1992 acquisition of defensive end Charles Haley from San Francisco was the final link in a chain that thoroughly shackled opponents. Haley's quarterback pressures open the lanes, which allows the linebackers and the rest of the linemen to do their thing. The Cowboys are young enough and good enough to win it all again and should become the first team since San Francisco did it in 1989 and 1990 to nail back-to-back Super Bowls.

The Joe Gibbs era in Washington is over. In 12 years Gibbs led the Redskins to four Super Bowls and won three of them. "He has simply been the best coach in the history of the Redskins," says team owner Jack Kent Cooke. After Gibbs retired, longtime defensive coordinator Richie Petitbon was named as his successor. Petitbon is not in for a picnic.

"It's going to be difficult," he admits. His primary concerns are the Hogs, the Redskins' aging offensive line, and quarterback Mark Rypien, who went from Super Bowl MVP two years ago to the NFC's lowest-ranked starting passer in 1992. To make matters worse, the Posse--Washington's famed trio of talented receivers--has split up. Ricky Sanders (51 receptions in 1992) and Art Monk (who caught only 46) are still around, but leading receiver Gary Clark (64 catches) is now darting about in Phoenix. The Redskins signed Cincinnati's Tim McGee to replace Clark, but I doubt that he'll do as well. Although the Hogs must upgrade their pass-blocking, they still provide adequate cover for Redskins ballcarriers. Running backs Earnest Byner (who rushed for 998 yards in 1992) and Ricky Ervins (495) will again make major contributions, as will second-round draft choice Reggie Brooks of Notre Dame. Even though All-Pro linebacker Wilber Marshall was traded to Houston, Washington's veteran defense, seventh best in the league, will remain rugged.

In spite of Rypien's bum year in 1992, Washington still finished 9--7 and made the playoffs. I expect better from Rypien this time around, which means the Redskins will again slip into the postseason.

At the moment, Eagles team owner Norman Braman isn't too popular in Philadelphia. Last year he allowed Pro Bowl tight end Keith Jackson to leave the nest. This year he failed to reenlist All-Pro Reggie White, the league's most dominant defensive lineman. Says Eagles' defensive end Clyde Simmons, "We're like the lost children of Israel trying to find the promised land without Moses." Braman also allowed quarterback Jim McMahon, defensive tackle Leon Seals, defensive back John Booty and offensive tackle Ron Heller to get away. The only quality free agent he picked up was 49er pass rusher Tim Harris (17 sacks in 1992). Harris' only problem: He's facing his second drunken-driving charge in the past 20 months and may be suspended.

Philadelphia was 11--5 last year and still has a strong nucleus. After briefly being benched in 1992 by head coach Rich Kotite, Randall Cunningham went on to complete 61 percent of his passes for 2775 yards and 19 touchdowns. He has a solid set of wide-outs in Fred Barnett (67 receptions for 1083 yards) and Calvin Williams (42 for 598). Herschel Walker rushed for over 1000 yards, but became expendable late in the season, when Heath Sherman piled up 583 yards to average 5.2 yards a pop. Philly's defense, led by Simmons (his 19 sacks were the most in the league last year) and line-backer Seth Joyner, will again be hard as nails. The Eagles have been wounded by free agency, but they're still dangerous.

If Dan Reeves didn't actively seek the Giants' vacant head-coaching job, he might have been out of football. He got it only because Boston College's Tom Coughlin and Dallas' Dave Wannstedt both turned down the job. Reeves doesn't mind. "I was my mother's third choice, too," he says. As soon as he took over, Reeves ended the quarterback hassle (created by ex-coach Ray Handley) between Phil Simms and Jeff Hostetler. After Reeves named Simms as his starter, Hostetler packed his bags and flew west to join the Raiders. Simms will be 37 and can't scramble, but he can still throw. Whether he can hold up for an entire season is another matter, and it's a big worry: His backups are prospects Dave Brown and Kent Graham. Simms' health permitting, the Giants' passing stats will improve, thanks to the addition of wide receivers Mark Jackson (who played for Reeves in Denver) and the 49ers' Mike Sherrard. New York's ground game--led by running backs Rodney Hampton and Jarrod Bunch--is solid.

Defense, once the Giants' hallmark, is now a question mark. All-everything linebacker Lawrence Taylor, 34, is attempting to come back from a torn Achilles tendon. Maybe he'll make it, maybe he won't. That's why the Giants signed linebackers Carlton Bailey of Buffalo, Michael Brooks of Denver and Marcus Buckley of Texas A&M, their third-round draft choice. I don't see New York making the playoffs or finishing better than .500.

Count on the Cardinals to repeat as the least in the East. Phoenix, 4--12 last season, scored a total of only 243 points, the fewest of any team in the NFC. With the additions of quarterback Steve Beuerlein, wide-out Gary Clark and Georgia's Garrison Hearst--the best running back in college football last year--the Cards are a sure thing to improve their scoring output. Unfortunately, Phoenix' defense, 24th in the league in 1992, is also a sure thing to get hammered again. Talk about futility: Phoenix has won only five divisional games in the past three years. General Manager Larry Wilson and head coach Joe Bugel probably will not be around in 1994.

Detroit fell to 5--11 last season and everyone wondered why. No great mystery here: The Lions were understandably disheartened by tragedies that struck two of their teammates. During a game in 1991, guard Mike Utley suffered an injury that left him paralyzed. Last year, guard Eric Andolsek was run over and killed by a truck while doing yard work.

"We had a poor record but we weren't that bad a football team," says head coach Wayne Fontes. He's right. Despite a slow start behind a weak offensive line, All-Pro running back Barry Sanders gained 1352 yards. In 1992, Fontes couldn't decide on a starting quarterback. Rodney Peete began the season, Erik Kramer replaced him and Andre Ware finished up. Peete has been installed as this year's starter, and he'll again be throwing to quality receivers Herman Moore, Brett Perriman and Willie Green. Detroit's offense will be noticeably stronger with the addition of a trio of free agents--tight end Rodney Holman (from Cincinnati) and guards David Lutz (from Kansas City) and Bill Fralic (from Atlanta).

Detroit will muster a dramatically improved pass rush this season. On draft day, the front office traded for New Orleans' All-Pro linebacker Pat Swilling and also drafted pass-rush specialist Antonio London of the University of Alabama. The Lions are ready to roar again.

When Eagle All-Pro Reggie White signed with the Packers during the winter, he said he wanted to play for a team that was ready to make a run for the Super Bowl. Green Bay isn't there yet, but the team is definitely in the midst of a revival. In head coach Mike Holmgren's first season, the Packers were 9--7 and just missed postseason play with a season-ending loss to Minnesota.

A large share of the team's success belonged to first-year general manager Ron Wolf. He lured Holmgren away from San Francisco and made a great move in getting quarterback Brett Favre from Atlanta. Nobody expected Holmgren to turn things around so quickly, especially when he went with a roster that included two dozen new faces. Green Bay's resurgence was possible only because of Favre's heroics. After taking over in the third game, the second-year quarterback completed 64 percent of his passes for 3227 yards and 18 touchdowns. Favre was aided immensely by wide receiver Sterling Sharpe, who set an NFL record with 108 receptions. Sharpe and Favre will both benefit from the presence of free-agent pickup Mark Clayton, who used to catch Dan Marino's bombs in Miami.

To make it over the next hurdle, the Pack will have to put together a respectable ground game. Last season Green Bay's rushing attack was 21st in the league, and since then the team's leading ballcarrier, Vince Workman, has moved on to Tampa Bay. Darrell Thompson and Edgar Bennett will have to step up their output, and they just might: The acquisition of free agent offensive linemen Harry Galbreath (Miami) and Tunch Ilkin (Pittsburgh) will perk up the Pack's aging line.

In 1992, Green Bay's defense ranked 23rd in the NFL and produced only 34 sacks. White, along with another free agent, tackle Bill Maas (Kansas City), will change that in a hurry. Come playoff time, the Pack will finally be back.

In his first year with the Vikings, head coach Dennis Green led Minnesota to an 11--5 record and a playoff appearance. He did so despite inconsistent quarter-backing and injuries to two of the Vikes' top three receivers. Green is optimistic about this season. "I think once you've made the playoffs, the nucleus is there," he says. And the nucleus is there; all they lack is an effective and durable quarterback. I'm a little surprised that Green signed brittle Jim McMahon, whose 11-year NFL career has been plagued by injuries. The Vikes lost two offensive starters to free agency--center Kirk Lowdermilk and tackle Brian Habib--and their absence will be hazardous to McMahon's health. The pair will also be missed by Terry Allen, who last season rushed for 1201 yards and scored 15 touchdowns.

In 1992 the Vikings were winners thanks mainly to a hard-nosed defense that was especially nasty against the passing game. Cornerback Audray McMillian's eight interceptions tied for the league lead, and the team's 51 sacks (led by Chris Doleman's 14.5) were third best in the NFL.

But the Vikes won't be winners this season. I don't expect McMahon to go through the season unscathed. Combine that with the Vikings' brutal schedule (which includes games against the Cowboys, 49ers, Saints, Broncos and Raiders), and it will be a minor miracle if Minnesota makes it into the playoffs.

Replacing fiery Mike Ditka won't be easy for new Bears head coach Dave Wannstedt, the architect of last year's league-leading Dallas defense. Chicago fans would have much preferred losing icy team president Mike McCaskey. McCaskey and Ditka never got along, mostly because McCaskey often overruled Ditka on the team's draft choices, which is one reason why the Bears are in such sad shape. When the team went 5--11 last year, McCaskey didn't hesitate to hand Ditka his walking papers.

In an attempt to save face, McCaskey hired this year's most sought-after head-coaching prospect, beating out the Giants and Broncos for Wannstedt's services. Wannstedt has plenty of problems to solve, and it's now up to McCaskey to act like Jerry Jones in Dallas and get Wannstedt the players he needs.

Wannstedt's first major undertaking will be a reclamation job on quarterback Jim Harbaugh. After six years, Harbaugh is, at best, an average quarterback. Last season he threw for only 2486 yards and had just 13 touchdowns--along with 12 interceptions. Chicago's offensive line needs strengthening: Running back Neal Anderson, who usually gains 1000 yards a season, managed only 582 last year. Incoming fullback Craig Heyward (from New Orleans) is built along the lines of William "The Refrigerator" Perry, which points to the team's need for speed. Case in point: Tom Waddle, the Bears' leading receiver in 1992, is the slowest wide-out in pro football. To help remedy the problem, Chicago's first-round draft choice was fleet receiver Curtis Conway of Southern California.

On defense, the Bears have plenty of holes to plug. Perennial All-Pro linebacker Mike Singletary retired. The Bears signed Seattle's Joe Cain to replace him. Wannstedt is well aware that last season, the Bears' defense ranked 17th in the league. If anyone can improve it overnight, it's Wannstedt.

As disappointing as Vinny Testaverde was during his six-year stint with the Buccaneers, I rate him better than the three quarterbacks the team will go with this year: 39-year-old Steve DeBerg and inexperienced Craig Erickson and Mike Pawlawski. Tampa Bay's offense would be hopeless if not for the presence of running back Reggie Cobb, who last year rushed for 1171 yards.

The Bucs' defense is hopeless. Tampa Bay (5--11 in 1992) isn't bad at shutting down the run, but that hardly matters to opponents, who pass the Bucs to death. Last season Tampa's pass defense, the league's worst, gave up an NFL-high 25 touchdown passes. Rookie tackle Santana Dotson led the Bucs with ten sacks, and this year another rookie end, first-round pick Eric Curry of Alabama, will make his presence felt. Tampa picked up a pair of proven free agents in linebacker Hardy Nickerson (from Pittsburgh) and cornerback Martin Mayhew (from Washington), but opposing quarterbacks will still have a field day against the Bucs.

Eddie DeBartolo, one of the game's most generous owners, tried everything he could to keep Joe Montana from leaving the 49ers, but Joe felt it was time to go. His move to Kansas City will finally allow Steve Young to be fully accepted in San Francisco, where fans still idolize Montana for leading the Niners to four Super Bowl titles. Young may well lead them to a few more. In 1992 he was the league's MVP, its top-rated passer for the second straight year and the key man in the Niners' 14--2 showing. Young completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 3465 yards and 25 touchdowns and threw just nine interceptions. He also ran for 537 yards and four touchdowns. And Young will get better. So will Ricky Watters, San Francisco's first 1000-yard running back since Roger Craig was in his prime. Watters gained all that ground despite missing most of the final five games with a bum shoulder. With Watters' running, Young's passing and Jerry Rice's receiving (the incomparable one caught 84 passes for 1201 yards and 10 touchdowns), the 49ers' offense was the best in the NFL.

The same could not be said of their defense. San Francisco's spotty secondary was responsible for the Niners finishing 26th against the pass. DeBartolo tightened up things considerably by signing All-Pro safety Tim McDonald of Phoenix. Overall, however, San Francisco--with the defections of All-Pro defensive lineman Pierce Holt and team sack leader Tim Harris--was hurt by free agency.

Low-key head coach George Seifert still knows what it takes to win. He'll get the 49ers home first in the West and will again challenge Dallas for the NFC's Super Bowl berth.

This could be the year the Saints finally win their first playoff game in team history. Last fall savvy head coach Jim Mora led his team to a club-record 12 victories. But what he, his players and the team's fans remember most was New Orleans' 36--20 playoff loss to Philly at the Superdome. Says linebacker Sam Mills, "People in New Orleans are at a point--and so is this team--where we have to go to the next step." They won't take that step, however, until they rebuild their offensive line and rev up their mediocre running game.

To help correct those deficiencies, the Saints signed versatile fullback Brad Muster (Chicago) and drafted highly rated offensive tackle Willie Roaf, a 6'4", 299-pound bruiser out of Louisiana Tech. The Saints' air attack was more than passable--Bobby Hebert clicked on 59 percent of his passes for 3287 yards and 19 touchdowns--but Hebert was after a huge raise and the Saints decided he wasn't worth it. He'll be replaced by Wade Wilson, a capable quarterback acquired from Atlanta. Also gone is ferocious linebacker Pat Swilling, who was traded to Detroit.

But the Saints are still stacked with heavy hitters, and I expect them again to give up the fewest points in the NFL. They'll be back in the playoffs, and this just might be the year they take the extra step.

Watch out for the Rams. Last year team owner Georgia Frontiere made a smart move by rehiring former head coach Chuck Knox, who has made a specialty of reviving lifeless ball clubs. Knox has turned teams around in Los Angeles, Buffalo and Seattle, and he's doing it again in Los Angeles. In 1992, the Rams finished 6--10, but those six wins were twice the number they rang up the year before. Knox also restored QB Jim Everett's self-confidence. As a result, Everett completed 59 percent of his passes for 3323 yards and 22 touchdowns. The Rams gained more than they lost in the free-agent wars. Stellar offensive tackle Gerald Perry jumped crosstown to the Raiders, and All-Pro linebacker Kevin Greene is now a Steeler. Knox quickly obtained the Jets' Irv Eatman to fill Perry's spot and then picked up linebackers Henry Rolling (from San Diego) and Shane Conlan (from Buffalo), along with defensive end Fred Stokes (from Washington). Knox' biggest needs now are another wide receiver to complement Henry Ellard and Flipper Anderson, and another dependable running back. Cleveland Gary rushed for 1125 yards last season, but he has a tendency to fumble. The Rams' first-round draft choice, running back Jerome Bettis of Notre Dame, is a 248-pound pile driver who'll probably give Knox the chance to employ his favorite offense: Ground Chuck. It won't be long before the Rams are in the playoffs again.

Falcons fans are growing weary of self-promoting head coach Jerry Glanville, and so is Atlanta's management. They have a right to feel frustrated. Last year the Falcons finished 6--10 and had the NFL's worst defense. In quest of a quick fix, team owner Rankin Smith spent a small fortune on free agents and trades. The Falcons picked up much-traveled running back Eric Dickerson from the L.A. Raiders, 49er All-Pro defensive tackle (he also can play end) Pierce Holt, Washington defensive tackle Jumpy Geathers and three fourths of a new defensive secondary (Detroit's Melvin Jenkins, Green Bay's Vinnie Clark and Denver's Alton Montgomery).

For the Falcons to go anywhere at all, quarterback Chris Miller needs an injury-free season (he didn't get one last year). When he's healthy, Miller is one of the best in the business. In case Miller goes down again, the Falcons also signed former New Orleans quarterback Bobby Hebert.

With all the talent Glanville has inherited, drafted and imported during the past three years, it's hard to believe that the Falcons haven't been a fixture in the playoffs. If they miss again this year, Glanville will be history.

Dolphins head coach Don Shula hasn't been to the Super Bowl since 1984, and he wants back in. He came close last year, when his team lost to the Bills in the AFC title game. His biggest gripe is that Miami doesn't score enough.

"That's been a disappointment with an offense that supposedly has as much firepower as we do," Shula says. It's not the fault of quarterback Dan Marino, who threw for 4116 yards, most in the NFL. To give Marino more targets, Shula signed free-agent wide receiver Mark Ingram of the Giants, traded for Irving Fryar of the Patriots and made Penn State wide-out O. J. McDuffie his number-one draft pick. Last year Shula went for defense in the draft and came up with a pair of starters, cornerback Troy Vincent and defensive end Marco Coleman. Not coincidentally, Miami's defense rose from 27th to ninth against the run. It will be even better with the return of All-Pro linebacker John Offerdahl, who was sidelined with injuries in 1992. To have a realistic shot at the Super Bowl, however, Miami must upgrade its rushing attack, which last year ranked 24th in the league.

Shula needs only seven more victories to become the winningest head coach in pro football history. He'll get them while winning the East.

Something's seriously wrong in Buffalo. After their latest defeat in the Super Bowl, the Bills fired general manager Bill Polian, who was instrumental in building the team. "We lost the best GM in football," says quarterback Jim Kelly. "It's sad to see a guy like that leave. He's done so much for us."

Polian didn't leave of his own accord, but a number of Bills did: Buffalo lost six players in free-agency defections. Among the missing: All-Pro offensive tackle Will Wolford and linebackers Shane Conlan and Carlton Bailey. That doesn't exactly qualify as a case of rats leaving a sinking ship. Led by Kelly, running back Thurman Thomas and wide receiver Andre Reed, the Bills can stillscore touchdowns in bunches.

Being routed in the Super Bowl notwithstanding, Buffalo's defense--headed by defensive end Bruce Smith and linebacker Cornelius Bennett--is plenty mean. This is still a first-class team, but the law of averages is about to catch up to the Bills. After three straight Super Bowl losses, the odds are heavily against their returning to the big dance.

Ted Marchibroda should have been given more consideration as coach of the year. Last year he took over the hapless Colts--the team had gone 1--15 in 1991--and somehow whipped them into winners. Indianapolis finished 9--7 and came within one victory of gaining a playoff spot. On paper, it didn't add up: The Colts' offense was last in the league in rushing (and 24th overall), and its defense ranked 21st. So how did Marchibroda do it? Beats the hell out of me.

Quarterback Jeff George threw for only 1963 yards, and Anthony Johnson, the team's leading ballcarrier, picked up a puny 592 yards. Both will do better this season, because of a pair of free-agent pickups--All-Pro tackle Will Wolford from Buffalo and center Kirk Lowder-milk from Minnesota--who will quickly make their presence felt along Indy's offensive line. The Colts still need to add a breakaway back, but their corps of wide receivers--Reggie Langhorne, Jessie Hester and number-one draft choice Sean Dawkins of California--will prove as lethal as any team's.

Last year's top two draft picks, defensive tackle Steve Emtman and linebacker Quentin Coryatt, were high-impact performers--and if they both hadn't gone down with season-ending injuries, Indianapolis could have edged its way into the playoffs. They may not get there this year, but at least the Colts will be contenders.

No team made bigger off-season moves than the New York Jets. Within the opening weeks of free agency, the team signed two prime-time performers, safety Ronnie Lott of the Raiders and defensive tackle Leonard Marshall of the Giants. They then traded for an even bigger marquee attraction, Boomer Esiason. The Jets also came to terms with Bengal cornerback Eric Thomas, Chicago tight end James Thornton and Buffalo kick returner Clifford Hicks.

But they didn't stop there. On draft day, cagey general manager Dick Steinberg stole the Cardinals' top running back, Johnny Johnson (who gained 734 yards last year), by virtue of trading places in the draft with Phoenix, which was desperate to land Georgia's Garrison Hearst. Steinberg's first draft choice was Florida State linebacker Marvin Jones, an instant starter.

All the new talent just might revive the Jets. After making the playoffs in 1991 and winning five in a row during the 1992 preseason, New York went 4--12. The Jets bombed mainly because their offense fizzled under the direction of rookie quarterback Browning Nagle. Head coach Bruce Coslet, the Bengals' former offensive coordinator, has turned the reins over to Esiason, who should be able to put at least a semblance of sonic boom in the Jets' offense. It won't take much to improve: Last year only three other teams in the league scored fewer points than New York.

The Patriots have a new owner (James Orthwein) and a new field boss (Bill Parcells). They needed both. After a two-year hiatus, the former Giants head coach (who once coached Patriots line-backers) takes over a beleaguered New England franchise that finished 2--14 last season. The Patriots certainly need help everywhere, and the methodical Parcells is providing it. He used the first pick in the college draft to land Washington State's Drew Bledsoe, who has the size and skills to develop into a franchise quarterback.

Thanks to free agency, Parcells was able to make his new team semi-respectable in a matter of months. On defense, he signed ends John Washington (Atlanta) and Aaron Jones (Pittsburgh), and tackle Leon Seals (Philadelphia). On offense, his free-agent pickups include quarterback Scott Secules (Miami), tackle Steve Trapilo (New Orleans), wide receiver Mike Fair (Detroit) and special teamer Reyna Thompson (Giants). Parcells is a demanding and remarkable coach, and it won't be long before he molds his ragtag band into a decent team. They won't come up winners this season, but the Pats will be patsies no more.

The off-season was a bitch for the Houston Oilers. It wasn't easy to erase the memory of blowing a 35--3 third quarter lead in last season's 41--38 AFC playoff loss to Buffalo. Two days after that historic debacle (no NFL team had ever squandered a 32-point lead), owner Bud Adams did not renew the contract of defensive coordinator Jim Eddy and replaced him with former Eagles head coach Buddy Ryan. Oilers head coach Jack Pardee is no doubt looking over his shoulder at Ryan, the crustiest coot in pro football. Adams has grown impatient with a team that has appeared in the playoffs six straight years without getting to the Super Bowl. If Pardee can't take the Oilers there this year, Ryan will get a shot at doing it next year.

Despite missing five of the last six games of the 1992 season, superb quarterback Warren Moon passed for 2521 yards and 18 touchdowns. Receivers Haywood Jeffires (90 catches), Curtis Duncan (82), Ernest Givins (67) and Webster Slaughter (39) give the Oilers the NFL's highest-octane passing offense.

Running back Lorenzo White turned in the best season of his five-year career: White gained 1226 yards--and didn't fumble once for a turnover--behind a disciplined offensive line led by center Bruce Matthews and guard Mike Munchak. With tackle Ray Childress at the forefront, the Oilers had the league's third-best defense. It'll be better this season with the signing of Redskins All-Pro linebacker Wilber Marshall. If Moon stays healthy this season, Houston will make it to the Super Bowl.

Last year new head coach Bill Cowher took a disorganized 7--9 Steelers outfit and guided it to an 11--5 record and its first Central Division title since 1984. Although Pittsburgh quarterback Neil O'Donnell was hampered by a leg injury, he nevertheless passed for 2283 yards and 13 touchdowns. He'll do a lot better this year now that lightning-quick wideout Louis Lipps has returned after sitting out last season. (Lipps was steamed at the Steeler front office for not going after another blue-chip wide receiver.)

Pittsburgh's biggest story on offense was ballcarrier Barry Foster, who rushed for a team-record 1690 yards. Foster, a workhorse, ran the ball a league-high 390 times. He'll be helped this year by the return of running back Tim Worley, who was suspended for all of 1992 for violating the league's substance-abuse policy.

The Steelers' lost four starters to free agency: linebackers Hardy Nickerson and Jerrol Williams, and linemen Aaron Jones and Tunch Ilkin. When the front office recovered from the shock, the Steelers jumped into the free-agent pool and pulled out All-Pro linebacker Kevin Greene (from the Rams) and linebacker Greg Clark (from Seattle). Pittsburgh's defensive leader is All-Pro cornerback Rod Woodson, who last year finished second on the team in sacks and tackles. He's a hard hitter who can run like a whippet, which makes him very dangerous on kick returns. The Steelers won't repeat as division champs, but they'll be in the playoffs again.

After the Browns finished 7--9, team owner Art Modell, one of the NFL's nicer guys, came down hard on the Cleveland media for their heavy criticism of head coach Bill Belichick. "I'm so positive of his future here," said Modell, "that if we don't get the job done by the end of his contract [in 1995], I will get out of football and leave Cleveland."

Belichick somehow kept the Browns competitive without a quality quarterback for most of the year. After Bernie Kosar broke an ankle in the second week of the season (he missed nine games), backup Todd Philcox broke a thumb the following week. Free agent Mike Tomczak, a Bears castoff, was pressed into duty and went 4--4 before Kosar returned. Kosar's history of injuries caused the Browns to pick up Tampa Bay free agent Vinny Testaverde to act as a backup.

Cleveland took a big step in upgrading its mediocre air attack by adding Testaverde's teammate at Tampa Bay, wide receiver Mark Carrier, who caught 56 passes for the Bucs. The Browns' ground game also needs overhauling. The team's leading runner, recently retired Kevin Mack, gained only 543 yards, and number-one draft choice Tommy Vardell checked in with a meager 369.

Belichick's forte, defense, was Cleveland's bright spot last season. At one point, the Browns set a club record by going 14 quarters without giving up a touchdown. But Cleveland didn't get much help in the college draft, so the Browns won't be going anywhere fast. If he stays true to his word, Modell may well have only two years left in professional football.

Last season, in his NFL debut as a head coach, Dave Shula guided the Bengals to a 5--11 record. Don's kid did a damn good job, given what he had to work with: Cincinnati fielded the NFL's 26th lousiest offense and defense. But I like his boldness. Toward the end of last season, Shula benched Boomer Esiason in favor of David Klingler. Although Klingler completed only 48 percent of his passes, it was a decent enough showing for a rookie quarterback. This year, Shula will work in at least two more rookie starters, first-round draft choice John Copeland (a defensive end out of Alabama) and Michigan tight end Tony McGee, Cincinnati's second-round pick.

The Bengals' only strength is their ability to grind out first downs. Running backs Harold Green, the AFC's fourth-leading rusher last year, and Derrick Fenner head up the ground game. With Tim McGee, the team's top receiver last year (only 35 receptions), now playing for the Redskins, Cincy is in dire need of wide-outs.

Shula is good, but he's no magician. For the third straight year, the Bengals will wind up last in the AFC Central.

Chargers general manager Bobby Beathard continues to astound the NFL. He was personnel director for Miami in the early Seventies when the Dolphins went to two Super Bowls, and for Washington in the Eighties, when the Redskins went to three Super Bowls. Last year, his third with San Diego, Beathard helped the Chargers make the playoffs for the first time in a decade.

Beathard's bravest move was to hire Bobby Ross from Georgia Tech and install him as head coach. In his 1992 NFL debut, Ross should have been voted coach of the year. He deserved it. After dropping their first four games, Ross' guys won 11 of their last 12 and captured the AFC West title.

On offense, quarterback Stan Humphries got the job done after John Friesz was lost for the year after being injured in the preseason. Humphries, acquired by Beathard from the Redskins, completed 57.9 percent of his passes for 3356 yards. Wide receiver Anthony Miller caught 72 passes and running back Ronnie Harmon snared 79. Marion Butts took care of the rushing with a team-high 809 yards.

The Chargers once again proved that you win in the NFL with defense. San Diego's was the league's fourth best and was led by All-Pro linebacker Junior Seau, who might be the most exciting defensive player in pro football. Don't take that as a slight to defensive end Leslie O'Neal, who topped the AFC with 17 of the Chargers' conference-leading 51 sacks. I look for San Diego to win another division title.

The Chiefs, 10--6 last season, believe that Joe Montana can take them to the Super Bowl. They might be right. Then again, maybe not. With the exception of a single showcase appearance last fall, Montana, now 37 and coming off elbow surgery, has been out of action for almost two years. He'll probably shake off the rust, but not opposing pass rushers. Montana's biggest worry has to be the play of Kansas City's offensive line. Last year the Chiefs gave up a frightening total of 48 sacks. If they don't improve, don't expect Montana to stand up to that kind of punishment. My prediction: Montana won't be healthy enough to play in more than ten of the Chiefs' games.

In addition to Montana's availability, Kansas City's heralded running game is also open to question. Last year the Chiefs' rushing attack plummeted from third in the league in 1991 to 23rd. Running backs Barry Word, Christian Okoye, Harvey Williams and free-agent pickup Marcus Allen can't do it alone. To beef up their awful offensive line, the Chiefs drafted guards Will Shields (Nebraska) and Lindsay Knapp (Notre Dame). At least one of them will have to instantly mature if Kansas City's running game is to take off again.

Luckily for head coach Marty Schot-tenheimer, the Chiefs' strength is their defense, which last year scored a league-high eight TDs. Led by linebacker Derrick Thomas and defensive end Neil Smith (each recorded 14.5 sacks), the Chiefs were the NFL's second-toughest team to pass against.

While I'm not overly optimistic about the Chiefs' running game, the presence of Montana plus that fire-breathing defense should carry Kansas City into the playoffs again.

After 12 years, during which he led the Broncos to three Super Bowl appearances (and losses), head coach Dan Reeves has left Denver. Quarterback John Elway hasn't, and as Elway goes, so go the Broncos. Last season, after a 7--3 start, Elway was injured. Not too surprisingly, Denver finished 8--8.

Wade Phillips, the Broncos' new head coach (last year he was their defensive coordinator), has decided to go with a 49ers-style offense, which will mean a more balanced attack that doesn't depend entirely on Elway. To make it work, Phillips needs a more productive ground game. With that in mind, Denver signed three free agents who'll play key roles on offense: San Diego running back Rod Bernstine (who's also a sure-handed receiver), and linemen Don Maggs (Houston) and Brian Habib (Minnesota).

Despite the efforts of linebacker Simon Fletcher (16 sacks in 1992) and a punishing secondary that is led by safeties Steve Atwater and Dennis Smith, the Broncos' defense slipped to 22nd in the league last season. That was just one notch better than Denver's offense. Phillips will have a lot of work ahead of him.

It's about time for Raiders boss Al Davis to stop futzing around and commit himself to a starting quarterback. In 1992 Los Angeles' vaunted vertical passing attack went horizontal, primarily because of poor play from quarterbacks Jay Schroeder and Todd Marinovich, both of whom were brought over by Davis. Neither will be the man this year. Schroeder was allowed to go to Cincinnati, and Marinovich will now play second fiddle to ex-Giant Jeff Hostetler, this year's designated starter. Says Davis, "Hostetler runs very well, takes few sacks and has a 70 percent winning average as a starter." True enough. We'll see if he's the pure passer the Raiders need to put points up on the board.

The Raiders, 7--9 last season under head coach Art Shell, are stacked with experienced and explosive receivers: Tim Brown, Willie Gault, James Lofton (picked up when the Bills didn't re-sign him). They also hope to sign former Heisman Trophy winner Raghib "Rocket" Ismail (who proved himself in Canadian football). The running backs--Gaston Green (648 yards for Denver last year) and Nick Bell--aren't too shabby, either.

The Raiders fielded the league's ninth best defense in 1992. Now that tackle Howie Long has returned to Pro Bowl form, L.A. will be far stingier and more ornery. The chances of a quick turn-around will finally boil down to how well Hostetler performs. If he comes through, the Raiders could contend for a spot in the playoffs.

The Seahawks (2--14 in 1992) once again will be the AFC West's divisional doormat. Last year's Seattle offense scored only 140 points and was the worst in the NFL. The team's passing attack was directed by former WLAF quarterback Stan Gelbaugh, who won the job by default: Kelly Stouffer has been a bust, and 6'8" Dan McGwire, Seahawks owner Ken Behring's personal 1991 first-round draft choice, probably should try the NBA. Seattle will be pinning all its hopes on Notre Dame's Rick Mirer, the second player picked in this year's college draft.

If the Seahawks had an offense they would be dangerous. After just three seasons in the NFL, defensive tackle Cortez Kennedy has established himself as an All-Pro, and he's only going to get better. Seattle's overall defense isn't bad, but you can't win if you don't score.

This Season's Winners

American Football Conference

Eastern Division.....Miami Dolphins

Central Division.....Houston Oilers

Western Division.....San Diego Chargers

Wild Card.....Iuffalo Bills

Wild Card.....Pittsburgh Steelers

Wild Card.....Kansas City Chiefs

AFC Champion.....Houston Oilers

National Football Conference

Eastern Division.....Dallas Cowboys

Central Division.....Detroit Lions

Western Division.....San Francisco 49ers

Wild Card.....Washington Redskins

Wild Card.....Green Bay Packers

Wild Card.....New Orleans Saints

NFC Champion.....Dallas Cowboys

Super Bowl Champion: Dallas Cowboys

Playboy's 1993 Preseason All-Pro Team

Offense

Dan Marino, Miami.................Quarterback

Emmitt Smith, Dallas............Running Back

Barry Sanders, Detroit...........Running Back

Jerry Rice, San Francisco.......Wide Receiver

Michael Irvin, Dallas...........Wide Receiver

Keith Jackson, Miami................Tight End

Paul Gruber, Tampa Bay.................Tackle

Jim Lachey, Washington..................Tackle

Randall McDaniel, Minnesota.............Guard

Steve Wisniewski, Los Angeles Raiders...Guard

Bruce Matthews, Houston................Center

Defense

Bruce Smith, Buffalo............................End

Reggie White, Green Bay.........................End

Cortez Kennedy, Seattle......................Tackle

Ray Childress, Houston.......................Tackle

Byron Evans, Philadelphia.........Middle Linebacker

Derrick Thomas, Kansas City......Outside Linebacker

Ken Norton, Dallas...............Outside Linebacker

Rod Woodson, Pittsburgh..................Cornerback

Terry McDaniel, Los Angeles Raiders......Cornerback

Tim McDonald, San Francisco..................Safety

Steve Atwater, Denver........................Safety

Specialties

Rich Camarillo, Phoenix......................Punter

Morten Andersen, New Orleans............Placekicker

Steve Tasker, Buffalo.................Special Teams

Mel Gray, Detroit............Kick and Punt Returner

Mike Morris, Minnesota.................Long Snapper

Eastern Division

National Football Conference

*Wild-card team

Central Division

National Football Conference

*Wild-card team

Western Division

National Football Conference

San Francisco...........10-6

New Orleans*............10-6

Los Angeles Rams.........8-8

Atlanta..................7-9

*Wild-card team

Eastern Division

American Football Conference

Miami...................10-6

Buffalo*................10-6

Indianapolis............9-7

New York Jets............7-9

New England.............4-12

*Wild-card team

Five Coaches in the Hot Seat

Jerry Glanville, Atlanta: Colorful but controversial antics are wearing thin with fans, media and management. Club is loaded with talent. Glanville's own words--"It's time to put up or shut up"--may come back to haunt him.

Jack Pardee, Houston: Has done a commendable job, but team owner Bud Adams--after seeing his Oilers in the playoffs six straight years--is tired of watching the Super Bowl on TV.

Joe Bugel, Phoenix: Hardworking, but he hasn't had a winning season in his three years with the Cardinals. It isn't totally his fault--ownership hasn't knocked itself out acquiring talented players.

Wayne Fontes, Detroit: After its NFC title-game appearance in 1991, the team slumped badly last year (5--11) and looked disorganized in the process. Fontes, a players' coach, has to solve his quarterback problem. This season could be his make-or-break year.

Bruce Coslet, New York Jets: Nice guy, but the one-year extension on his contract probably means that's all the time he has left to win. GM Dick Steinberg loaded up the Jets with free agents and is expecting a playoff berth.

Central Division

American Football Conference

Houston.............11-5

Pittsburgh*.........10-6

Cleveland............8-8

Cincinnati..........3-13

*Wild-card team

Western Division

American Football Conference

San Diego..............10-6

Kansas City*............9-7

Denver..................8-8

Los Angeles Raiders.....8-8

Seattle................5-11

*Wild-card team

The NFL's Six Worst Team Owners

Tim Robbie, Miami: After Joe Robbie died, his seven children sued one another for control of the team. Confidential settlement was reached, but bad blood still exists. All the legal turmoil has put the franchise in heavy debt, which will lead to an eventual sale. Only the presence of head coach Don Shula has given the team stability.

Bill Bidwill, Phoenix: May still have the first dollar he ever earned as an owner--and the Cardinals are proof that you get what you pay for. Bidwill outraged St. Louis when he left town in 1987 and went west in quest of bigger bucks. His team has quickly worn out its welcome in Phoenix.

Georgia Frontiere, Los Angeles Rams: A far cry from husband number six, Carroll Rosenbloom, who was a knowledgeable and respected owner.

Ken Behring, Seattle: A meddler who doesn't have a clue about football. His arrogance caused one of the game's best coaches, Chuck Knox, to leave.

Bob Irsay, Indianapolis: Still hated as much in Baltimore (the city he abandoned) as Bidwill is in St. Louis. Son Jim is working hard to rectify 21 years of futility that his father brought on the once-proud Colts.

Mike McCaskey, Chicago: Since he assumed control of club operations, the team's fortunes have dwindled. Even his grandfather--the Papa Bear himself, George Halas--who hired Mike Ditka, wouldn't hire McCaskey.