The Tomorrow Show

More than 40 years ago, Hugh Hefner pounded out the first issue of Playboy on a manual typewriter with a memory capacity of one. (Hef used carbon paper.) Today, Playboy is created on 30 networked Macintosh computers constantly transmitting 30-megabyte graphics files. In the next 40 years--or will it be ten?--what seems modern today will seem just as archaic as Hef's typewriter. To bring the future into focus, we've gone to more than two dozen serious future-thinkers in major industries--from aviation to theme parks--and asked them to predict the developments in their fields by the year 2034. Buckle your seat belt. It's quite a ride.

AT&T: Robert Kavner, executive vice president and chief executive of the multimedia products and services group: "Over the next 40 years changes in communications technology will be dramatic. Your personality traits, retained on small cards that slide into coffeetable-style computer terminals, will be able to travel over digital networks, allowing you to have experiences with people in other cities. Holograms and virtual reality will be a big part of those experiences. You can decide to make and star in a movie or play basketball, picking from teams of novices or NBA pros. You're there dribbling, going against zone defense. There's no ball in your hand, but you really feel it. You take your shot and the guy in, say, Portland will go up for the rebound. You may have a virtual conversation with the players after the game--even if they're not human. Right now, we have virtual reality gloves, but tomorrow you might just put your hand into a liquid to enjoy the fun."

Knight-Ridder Newspapers: Roger Fidler, corporate director of new media: "Printed newspapers won't exist in 40 years. Instead, the news will be delivered via a credit-card-style memory device to lightweight magazine-size tablets. Full-color (continued on page 144)Tomorrow Show(continued from page 130) screen displays will have the clarity and contrast of ink on paper, with the ability to provide not only written words and still pictures but also full-motion video clips, animated graphics and sound. On this portable electronic appliance, you'll store several publications as well as personal documents to read while you're sitting on a park bench, riding in a plane or lounging in bed. The tablet will even read the articles out loud in a pleasant male or female voice. You'll have subscriptions to some publications, which will be downloaded to your tablet every month. But you'll also be able to buy single copies at 21st century newsstands--computerized vending machines that are globally networked via fiber-optic cable or satellite."

Microsoft Corp.: Nathan Myhrvold, senior vice president of advanced technology: "Two decades ago it would have taken all the computers in the world to create the dinosaurs seen in Jurassic Park. Over the past 20 years the power of computers has increased 1 million times. I expect that rate to continue, which means computers will be a trillion times more powerful 40 years from now. Things will get pretty damn wild, Playboy probably won't use humans to photograph the centerfolds. Computers will do it and no one will even notice the difference. The moviemaking process will be totally changed as actors rent out their images for use in computer-made films. Because computing power will be enormously cheap, everything from light bulbs to floors and walls will be computerized."

IBM: M. Bernard Puckett, former senior vice president of corporate strategy and development: "In the future, we'll enjoy amazing new worlds of interactivity. Say that I want to see my 1-1/2-year-old niece. I'll tell the TV interface and she'll appear in my house in an almost three-dimensional form. We'll also be able to see the premiere of Batman X in our homes and participate in the movie. Batman will turn to you and ask which action he should take. As a result, the ending of the movie at your house will be different from that at your neighbors'. Masses of people will be able to access enormous amounts of information any time, anywhere. You'll be able to see works of art or call up an expert to help with a woodworking project."

Nissan Design International: Jerry Hirshberg, vice president: "Advancements in fields such as medicine and computers will be applied to automaking. Vehicle guidance systems, for example, will be extensions of our own nervous systems. By monitoring your heartbeat, fatigue level, eye movement and body chemistry, the car will become a mechanical organism--an extension of yourself with the intelligence to fill in when you need it to.

"We'll also be using guided missile technology to move cars on smart highways. You'll be able to override the controls of your own vehicle to exit or transit certain areas, as sophisticated intravehicle communications and guidance systems prevent accidents and monitor the flow of traffic while you're en route to your destination."

Panasonic Technologies: Ronald Richard, executive vice president: "Sophisticated speech synthesis, recognition and translation capabilities will be built into new products within the next 25 to 30 years to aid in global understanding and enhance social interaction. You'll be able to tune in an Italian or Japanese television program and know what's being said through a translation chip built into your TV set.

"There will be a much greater realization that technology is a tool, not an end unto itself. The Third World will feel more connected, less resentful, as cheap communications and cheap solar power technology gives those countries ready access to information in the First World, much of which will be free."

Sony Electronics: Yuki Nozoe, senior vice president of marketing for the consumer products group: "Forty years from now the wall TV may finally have arrived. But it won't hang like a picture--the wall itself will be the TV. Push a button and the wall will turn into a television screen. Push another button and you will see through it like a window. Press again and it will turn into a painted wall that's part of your home."

Todd Rundgren, musician: "Music will be part of a mixed-media presentation. It's already happening. Classical music written strictly for its aficionados is less popular than pseudoclassical soundtrack music accompanying a big-eyed alien or dinosaur. The delivery of music will have a great impact on the content of personal collections. Because music will be downloaded directly to your home, you won't have to buy an entire album--just ten minutes of your favorite songs. And, since there will be no packaging, it will cost you only about a buck.

"To eliminate the technical complications of spinning disks, we'll store music on nonmechanical flash-memory cards about the size of credit cards."

Critics' Choice Video and Playboy Catalogs: Herb Laney, president: "Printed catalogs will no longer appear in your mailbox. Instead, you'll shop the world's catalogs on demand, using a combination interactive TV-personal computer-telephone-fax machine. Virtually any merchandise or service will be accessible for review in full color and motion, with written and audio descriptions. You'll be able to watch a movie such as The Firm, for example, and point your remote at Tom Cruise's suit to find out who makes it, how much it costs and where you can order one. If you want a copy of a catalog page or screen image, it will print out in full color on your fax machine. Merchandise will be delivered the same day it's ordered--or the next day at the latest. It will be the ultimate in impulse buying and instant gratification."

Lucasfilm Ltd.: Tomlinson Holman, corporate technical director and inventor of THX programs: "With the growth of home-based entertainment, the movie-theater experience will become more high-end. The kids, the popcorn and the trashy movies will all be aspects of home viewing. Theaters will have valets, day-care centers, juice and alcohol bars and state-of-the-art presentations of quality films. Screens of the future will be much sharper. Digital technology will eliminate the jumps and weaves of current images as well as the dirt and grain. I expect the experience will be video-based. Perhaps liquid crystal will be used for the display. We're also going to see better ways to clean, reconstruct and even invent dialogue. If we're missing a word in a sentence spoken by Sean Connery, an editor will use a device to create the word.

"I also predict that films will be delivered to theaters via satellite, where they will be downloaded, stored and displayed on demand."

Joe Boxer: Nicholas Graham, chief executive officer and founder: "When it comes to fashion, the only decision people will have to make is what to wear from the bedroom to the office, which will be located in another part of the house. Since you'll be totally networked with other businesses, you'll keep a suit of professional clothes next to the videophone. When you meet with clients electronically, you'll slip on the suit. After the meeting, you'll put your casual clothes back on. Methods of buying clothes will change, too. I imagine crossing QVC or the Home Shopping Network with Wild Palms. A holographic runway would appear in front of your television, with a three-dimensional image of Armani narrating his fall collection as simulated models walk past you. By punching a button on your remote control, you'll be able to order the displayed fashions and, by changing channels, you could change designers: Donna Karan on channel six, Mark Jacobs on channel ten and so on."

Nintendo of America: Peter Main, vice president of marketing: "If today's video games offer a temporary suspension of disbelief, then games of the future will magnify that experience tenfold. Right now, if you want to go scuba diving in the Mediterranean, you have to take a plane halfway around the world. But in the future, you'll simply call up that experience on a computer and monitor and it will seem so real, you'll need a towel to dry off. I can even imagine these games becoming part of some national health program as a way to keep people mentally fit."

H2O Plus: Cindy Melk, founder: "Grooming products will become gen-derless, because people will find that differences in skin types are more person to person--not male to female. Since the only distinguishable products for men will be used for shaving, couples will share everything else. If scientists work hard, I can imagine that by the year 2034 there may be a "timeless" skin tablet that gets rid of wrinkles, cellulite and general skin nastiness, and a vitamin that will cause your hair to grow in the color you want. An instant sun-care pill, which creates a healthy-looking skin color without the damaging effects of sun exposure, would also be great."

Lettuce Entertain You Enterprises, Inc.: Richard Melman, president: "Restaurant service will move beyond being polite and attentive. We'll know more about customers prior to their visit, so we can customize their dining experience. When a customer calls for a reservation in the future, he might say: 'I've had a sore throat all day.' The staff will then have a special cocktail or meal waiting for him. "Certainly, computers will play a role in this, since we'll be able to store vast amounts of information about customers. Diners may even use keypads to communicate with the kitchen about their food requests.

"I also hope that within the next decades health care professionals will come up with a way of unclogging arteries quickly and painlessly with a pill. They may also come up with a pill to eliminate body fat, in which case I would probably open up a place that served nothing but cheeseburgers and fries."

Industrial Light and Magic: Jim Morris, vice president and general manager: "Given the wide range of emotions and nuances live actors can bring to a role, I'm not sure we would ever want to use technology to replace them. But what we will see is all sorts of unbelievable computer-generated characters--such as the dinosaurs in Jurassic Park--that interact with actors on three-dimensional computer-generated sets. Actors will be put into seemingly perilous situations or exotic locations that are actually created through computer animation.

"If, say, Harrison Ford starts another movie, and his previous director discovers that additional material is needed to clarify the story, the computer will fill in the gaps using scanned photos of the actor. I also think there eventually will be a data base of three-dimensional models and props. If you're working on a movie and need a plane for a particular shot, you'll be able to call it up on the computer, change its colors or flag and animate it for your scene. You'll even be able to duplicate the model, animating a whole sky full of aircraft if need be. As a result, films will become more epic."

Motorola, Inc.: Jim Page, director of marketing for advanced product technology: "Wireless communications in the future will be ubiquitous. Every aspect of our day-to-day living will be touched by new technology. You won't go outside to get the morning paper. It'll be delivered to a computer docked to your TV set, allowing you to call up only those stories you want to read on-screen. When you leave for the office, you'll remove the portable computer from the docking port where it's been collecting information and take it to your car so you can work while you're commuting. Once you're at work, you'll slip the computer out of its car holder and into a receptacle on the desktop. Offices will become places of transit, way stations of sorts, where information is collected and passed on."

Nike: Tinker Hatfield, creative director of special projects: "I envision a world in which anybody who makes shoes will be responsible for their re-use. In Germany, legislation is being introduced that requires car manufacturers to build automobiles that are easy to disassemble for recycling. I think the same concept will someday be applied to athletic shoes. They'll be made of silk with other environmentally safe fibers mixed in. All parts of the shoe will be biodegradable or recyclable and there will be no wasted weight or excessive bells and whistles."

Electronic Frontier Foundation: John Perry Barlow, co-founder: "Digital devices are being invisibly embedded in every element of our lives. As they converge with evolving communications systems, many of us will become 'jacked in' to a global web of communications. This virtual age could be the most socially transforming technological event since the capture of fire. We're developing the collective organization of human mentality. As we move into a virtual environment, an informational world, more of life will be stimulated by information, not by experience. Already, many of us get this from the computer screen all day, then go home and get more from TV at night. As virtualization becomes inclusive, you'll gradually lose the physical elements of your current world. Communications tools, such as AT&T's EO and Apple's Newton, will look crude. I think elements of those devices will be embedded--literally implanted--into your body. You will become a communications tool."

Calgene Fresh: Steve Benoit, former vice president: "Feeding people in the Third World is often as much a problem of delivering fresh crops as it is of growing them. To solve this, we're creating genetically altered fruits and vegetables that stay fresh and ripe longer. We're developing produce that will have a higher yield in a smaller amount of space, and we're genetically altering crops to resist insects. With farmers using less land and few or no chemical pesticides, both production and food costs will be lower. In essence, technology will allow us to improve the way we produce food and prolong the life of the products. The only reason people will refrigerate produce in the future will be that they like the way it tastes chilled."

Thomson Consumer Electronics: Joseph Clayton, executive vice president: "Entertainment and shopping options are going to be unlimited in the future. Your TV will turn into an agent, listing things it thinks you might want to watch. Direct broadcast satellites along with fiber-optic phone lines and over-the-air broadcasts will be just a few of the lanes on an information highway that will bring these shopping and entertainment options into your home. Of course, there will be electronic butlers to control lights, curtains, appliances and sprinkler systems. They may not be able to cut the grass, but who knows? Maybe we will figure that out, too."

Universal Studios Florida: Fred Lounsberry, executive vice president of marketing: "Given the capabilities of multimedia technology, you can put a CD into a computer and take a vacation walk through the streets of Paris or explore the finest museums from your armchair. Consequently, when people actually travel, they'll expect unbelievable experiences. So theme parks and the type of entertainment they provide will become much more important as a vacation option. People developing new entertainment options will have ways of integrating interactive media and motion simulators to entertain large numbers of people. With our Back to the Future ride, the cockpit gets hot when you pass by a molten lava bed and gets cold when you travel through the Ice Age. Our new Jaws ride delivers an equally realistic thrill. Certainly, rides in the future will continue in that direction, appealing more to multiple senses to give people an unforgettable experience. Virtual reality will play a key role, too. You will be able to put on a helmet and find yourself flying in the Gulf war or skiing in the Alps. Motion-based rides that are tied to virtual reality will enable you to control the story line of the ride by offering the option of turning right, left, up or down and thus altering the outcome of the experience."

Chrysler Corp.: Tom Gale, vice president of product design: "Cars of tomorrow will be tighter and more efficient through the use of lightweight materials such as aluminum and composites. You'll also see a continuing move toward improved aerodynamics, road feel and sportiness--all the aspects that make a car fun to drive. Function will be a key consideration, too. Designs will have to have a purpose and give something back to the consumer. Finally, nostalgia will still be important. Tomorrow's cars will incorporate elements from the past. That's part of the fabric of automotive design and it always will be."

Phil Ramone, record producer: "In the future, composers and filmmakers in the midst of creative binges won't have to be down the street from the producer or director. They can be at home or halfway around the world and instantly share their work through the phone lines. The whole point of having a radical fiber-optic superhighway is for convenience. When all the parties involved are not necessarily in the same place, you'll still be able to create a great recording."

The Box (an interactive cable music channel): Les Garland, executive vice president: "Television of tomorrow will be voice-activated. You'll get home and the set will say 'Good evening, what kind of mood are you in tonight?' You'll respond that you might be in the mood for sports, news, music videos, whatever you want. The age of personal interactive television will happen."

Worldwatch Institute: Lester Brown, president: "To avoid worldwide catastrophe in the future, five things must be done: First, we need to slow population growth. World leaders need to speak out, calling for only two children per couple. In doing so, they must also fill the family-planning gap, making sure the supply of birth control meets the demand. We also need to reverse deforestation of the planet, with governments and businesses working together to set agricultural policies. Protecting the top-soil is also critical and can be accomplished through education and changes in planting, plowing and other farming methods. To stabilize the climate, we will need to move beyond current fossil fuels to environmentally friendly energy sources such as solar and wind power. And finally, we need to protect the ozone layer by continuing to phase out the use of chlorofluorocarbons. Over the past four years we've cut chlorofluorocarbon production in half. It's time to finish the job."

Virgin Atlantic Airways: Richard Branson, chairman: "Forty years from now, airlines will offer a multifaceted flying experience. Planes will be larger and flights shorter--some a matter of minutes--enabling passengers to fly nonstop around the world. Passengers will be able to shop, have their hair done, study a foreign language or gamble in their seats, which will be adjacent to a Jacuzzi or will conveniently convert into full-size beds. Special lighting, aromatherapy and acupuncture will eliminate jet lag. Entertainment centers, gourmet restaurants, on-line offices and communications centers will be on board. An in-flight personal trainer will design a seat-exercise regime that is based on the length of the flight and the needs of individual passengers. And, of course, planes will be fueled by recycled materials."

"In 40 years the wall TV may have arrived. It won't hang like a picture--the wall will be the TV."