Playboy's Pro Football Forecast

Last spring the NFL owners decided that real men don't kick field goals. Point totals were down again in 1993. Everybody blamed those skinny Euro-style booters who split the uprights, put three on the board and high-five in the wrong language. NFL placekickers converted a record-setting 673 field goals last season, nearly a quarter of all points scored. Maybe they should do the World Cup every year, and keep those guys off the gridiron.

Meanwhile, touchdowns are becoming as rare as left-footed punters--especially if you're the Buffalo Bills and it's the second half of the Super Bowl. The owners couldn't flat-out give the Bills a point subsidy, so they went after the rule book instead. To discourage field-goal attempts, they've mandated that on a miss, the ball will be returned to the spot where the boot was attempted--seven yards behind the line of scrimmage. The number of long field-goal attempts will probably be lowered significantly, which may well wind up being translated into more punts. Just what the NFL needs: more punts.

In a further attempt to bolster excitement, the owners added the option of a college-style two-point conversion after a touchdown, which none of the coaches seems to like, and they decided that kickoffs will be made from the 30-yard line (instead of the 35) to promote runbacks. Nice try, fellas, but coaches will probably minimize the effect of the rule by having their kickers squib the ball down-field. As for the conversion--they can just ignore it.

With all of these changes afoot, you have to wonder about unexpected consequences, especially in light of the latest returns on the salary cap. The limit this year is $34.2 million per team. This has been a mixed blessing for the teams and for the players who voted for it--and for free agency. Is free agency really free when everything revolves around a set payroll figure? The NFL's cap has caused a number of high-salaried veterans to take pay cuts, unlike the NBA's, which is a soft cap that allows teams to spend whatever it takes to re-sign their own players. It has also forced teams to drop players they would have liked to keep.

The combination of free agents and salary-cap victims set off an exodus. All of a sudden, Dallas' dynasty has been shared with the rest of the league. The Buffalo Bills, on the other hand, held most of their riches, which means they are primed to show up for their fifth straight humiliation at the big dance, which will be held this season in Miami. The NFC is simply a tougher league, and both San Francisco and Dallas look like winners. I'll go with the 49ers: At least they still have their coach.

Now that the Jerry Jones--Jimmy Johnson honeymoon is over, what will become of the Cowboys? No one knows how Johnson's absence will affect the team, but rival coaches in the NFC East feel his departure will allow them to close the gap on Dallas. Barry Switzer, Johnson's successor (and team owner Jones' freshman coach at Arkansas), has never presided over an NFL team and has been out of coaching since leaving the University of Oklahoma in 1988. But Switzer, who plays at being a good old boy, is very shrewd. In his 16 years at Oklahoma, his teams won three national championships, a dozen Big Eight Conference titles and 84 percent of their games. He knows exactly what he's inherited: On his first day at work, Switzer announced that (continued on page 140) Pro Football (continued from page 92) he won't be tinkering with Dallas' offensive or defensive schemes.

Why should he? With stars like Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin, the Cowboys have enough firepower to overcome any turmoil. In 1993, Smith led the league in rushing for the third straight year (1486 yards), despite missing the first two games because of a contract dispute. Aikman, the $50 million quarterback, finished as the NFC's second-best passer, while Irvin was the NFL's third-best receiver (88 receptions for 1330 yards).

Dallas' doomsday defense is still quick and will benefit from defensive end Charles Haley's return from back surgery. But Switzer has to replace defensive tackle Tony Casillas, who signed with Kansas City, and All-Pro linebacker Ken Norton, who's now a 49er. Help could come from number one draft pick Shante Carver (Arizona State). Switzer will have some holes in his offensive line as a result of the defections of guards John Gesek (to Washington) and Kevin Gogan (to the Raiders). Finding a replacement for placekicker Eddie Murray will be another problem.

Still, the Cowboys appear strong. Switzer was a big-time winner at Oklahoma and, like Johnson, is a great motivator. That may be all his players need for a third straight Super Bowl victory.

After last season, desert winds finally reached sirocco strength in Phoenix. Unpredictable Cardinals owner Bill Bid-will axed popular coach Joe Bugel (who led the team to a 7--9 record, its best finish since the club moved from St. Louis) and brought in the fiery Buddy Ryan, Houston's defensive coordinator. "You've got a winner in town. We're here to win now," Ryan, outspoken as ever, told the Arizona media when he was introduced as head coach. "We plan on going to the playoffs this year."

Buddy has a big mouth, but he usually backs up what he says. After last year's number one draft choice Garrison Hearst (whom Ryan has been trying to trade) was lost for the season, the Cardinals discovered a 1000-yard rusher in Ron Moore. Even though he was beset by injuries, quarterback Steve Beuerlein passed for 3164 yards and looks ready to join the top tier of NFL signal callers. As he did in Chicago and Philly, Jim McMahon joins Buddy's fold, as backup QB. Wide receiver Gary Clark, who missed almost half of last season, is healthy again, as is defensive tackle Eric Swann, who seems ready for an All-Pro year.

The Cardinals dramatically strengthened their defensive unit by signing All-Pro end Clyde Simmons and All-Pro linebacker Seth Joyner, both of whom Ryan coached at Philadelphia. They're going to love Buddy in Arizona, because his team will make the playoffs.

A new day is dawning in Philadelphia. Gone is pinchpenny owner Norman Braman, a car dealer who drove his players away. Jeff Lurie, the new owner of the Eagles, is a Hollywood producer who paid a record $185 million for the club. Braman, who bought the team in 1985 for $65 million, walked away with a $120 million profit. He might also have walked away with a Super Bowl title or two if he hadn't been such an incredible tightwad. During the last couple of seasons the Eagles lost the services of five All-Pros--tight end Keith Jackson, defensive end Reggie White, running back Keith Byars, defensive end Clyde Simmons and linebacker Seth Joyner.

Head coach Rich Kotite had the Eagles thinking playoffs after a 4--0 start. But after quarterback Randall Cunningham went down with his annual leg injury, the Eagles lost eight of their next nine games. Philly did win its last three games to finish 8--8, however, under the leadership of rejuvenated QB Bubby Brister. The ex-Steeler threw 14 touchdown passes and only five interceptions.

"After all the injuries, our record was something very much to be proud of," points out Kotite. "We had the toughest schedule in the league and we were in almost every game."

Kotite is banking on the return of Cunningham and his main receiver, Fred Barnett, to help Herschel Walker, who led the team in rushing and receiving. The Eagles' weak spot is defense, which finished 27th against the run. Kotite hopes to offset the loss of Simmons and Joyner with Houston defensive end William Fuller and San Diego defensive end Burt Grossman. As a moviemaker, Lurie presumably knows the value of stars, and he won't let any more of Philly's leading players get away.

Giants general manager George Young, who rubbed coaches Bill Parcells and Ray Handley the wrong way, got to Dan Reeves early, after Reeves' first year on the job. Young, co-chairman of the NFL's competition committee, never asked his coach's opinion of the two-point conversion (Reeves dislikes it) and other rule changes. Reeves was also angry about all the Giants' free agents--running back Lewis Tillman, offensive tackle Eric Moore, guard Bob Kratch, CBs Mark Collins and Perry Williams and safety Myron Guyton--that Young let get away.

Last season Reeves, 1993 NFC coach of the year, orchestrated the league's top rushing attack (138 yards per game). The Giants have a 1000-yard runner in Rodney Hampton and a terrific all-purpose back in David Meggett but are vulnerable at quarterback. Concerned about Phil Simms' lingering ailments, the Giants waived their veteran QB. Now they'll look to little-used backups Dave Brown and Kent Graham. This doesn't bode well for the team's offense.

Even after Lawrence Taylor's retirement, New York's defense, anchored by linebackers Carlton Bailey and Michael Brooks, is still formidable. But the Giants play in a murderously tough division, so their chances of again reaching the playoffs are slim indeed.

Dapper Washington owner Jack Kent Cooke didn't wait long to make a head coaching change. Following the Redskins' 4--12 finish under first-year head coach (and longtime Skins defensive coordinator) Richie Petitbon, Cooke immediately replaced him with the league's hottest young coaching prospect, Dallas offensive coordinator Norv Turner.

Cooke expects Turner to get the Skins offense, ranked 26th in the league last year, moving in a hurry. It won't be easy. After being named the MVP in Washington's last Super Bowl, QB Mark Rypien was released following two off years and replaced by San Diego's John Friesz. In the college draft, however, Turner made a great move by picking up Tennessee's Heath Shuler, Washington's quarterback of the future. He also added Cardinal linebacker Ken Harvey.

Turner sees two bright spots on offense: All-Pro tackle Jim Lachey, injured last season, is back and will no doubt make second-year running back Reggie Brooks an even bigger threat. As a rookie, Brooks showed power and speed while rushing for 1063 yards. The Redskins expected big things from Heisman Trophy winner Desmond Howard, but he was a disappointment, as was fellow wide receiver Tim McGee. That's why Washington signed steady Rams veteran Henry Ellard, whose best years are behind him.

Turner has a mountain to climb and won't get near the top this year, but he's the right man for the job. He'll turn the Redskins into contenders again.

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Last year the Vikings hoped for a miracle season from Jim McMahon. Now the team is upgrading to Warren Moon. Big break: The Oilers were so victimized by the salary cap that they were forced to trade him. Moon can throw just fine at age 38. By teaming up with Pro Bowl receiver Cris Carter, Moon will give the Vikings a potent passing attack--if he can get more protection than McMahon received last year. That appears likely. The Vikes landed free-agent offensive tackle Chris Hinton, formerly of the Falcons, and former Pittsburgh tight end Adrian Cooper. The Vikings lost supreme sacker Chris Doleman to Atlanta, but still have tackle John Randle, who had 12.5 sacks last year, trying for third best in the NFC. They'll win the Central with Moon and shoot for the Super Bowl after that.

A new era has been launched in Green Bay. For the first time since the glory years of Vince Lombardi, the Packers' immediate future looks bright.

Last year the Pack went 9--7 and got into the postseason for the first time since the strike-tainted 1982 season, when 16 teams made it. Counting only normal seasons, the Packers' playoff appearance was their first since 1972.

Third-year head coach Mike Holmgren, a former quarterback coach at San Francisco, feels he has an unpolished jewel in Brett Favre. The young, strong-armed quarterback had some brilliant games last year, but needs to minimize his mistakes if the Packers are to contend for the division title. Favre threw and completed more passes (318) than any other QB in the NFC, racking up 19 TD passes, but he also threw 24 interceptions. His favorite target was Sterling Sharpe, who caught 112 passes for 1274 yards and finished as the NFL's number one wide receiver.

The Packers finally got a good running back, Tampa Bay's Reggie Cobb. They drafted another--LeShon Johnson of Northern Illinois, last year's leading college rusher--and now need only an additional wide receiver to take some pressure off Sharpe and establish a balanced attack.

Reggie White keyed Green Bay's defense in his first year after leaving Philadelphia. He had 13 sacks, tying for the most in the NFC. Defensive and Sean Jones, just arrived from Houston, will make White even more effective.

The Pack isn't quite back, but it is playoff bound.

Last season first-year head coach Dave Wannstedt led Chicago to a 7--9 record (two more victories than the Bears recorded the year before), and he did it in spite of being saddles with the NFL's worst offense. Beleaguered QB Jim Harbaugh, an object of ridicule in Chicago, was finally released. Replacing him is Erik Kramer, who led the Lions into the playoffs during the final four games of the 1993 regular season. "I think I'm good at recognizing defenses and getting the ball to the right guy accurately," Kramer says.

He'll need some receivers to help him. Gutsy Tom Waddle was the Bears' best, with only 44 catches for 552 yards. The running attack was almost as atrocious; Neal Anderson, who led the team with 646 yards, has since been cut. In hopes of augmenting their offense, the Bears were busy in the free-agent market. Chicago signed running backs Lewis Tillman (Giants) and Merril Hoge (Pittsburgh), along with offensive tackle Andy Heck (Seattle).

The Bears' defense, number four in the league last year, has nothing to apologize for. Led by linebacker Dante Jones (with a club-record 189 tackles last season) and with a possible sleeper in Alcorn State linebacker John Thierry, their number one draft choice, Chicago will once again be a tenacious group to deal with. Wannstedt has the Bears growling again.

Last year Detroit head coach Wayne Fontes was enmeshed in a quarterback controversy that had fans calling for his head. Luckily for the Lions, his team finished 10--6 and won its second NFC Central Division title in the past three years.

There won't be any quarterback controversy this time around. The Lions shelled out $11 million to snare Miami's Scott Mitchell, the league's best available free-agent quarterback. Mitchell will be tested early--the Lions' schedule includes games against Dallas, San Francisco, the Giants, Buffalo and Miami. His prime target figures to be wide receiver Herman Moore, who caught 61 passes for 935 yards last year. Rookie WR Johnny Morton (USC) could also help. Barry Sanders will once again head up Detroit's dangerous running attack.

Injuries to a couple of Pro Bowlers crippled Detroit's defense in 1993. Linebacker Pat Swilling missed seven weeks with a severe ankle sprain, and safety Bennie Blades broke his ankle in the fourth game. Linebacker Chris Spielman, who led the team in tackles (160) for the sixth straight year, is hoping his buddies get well this season. Even if there's a major outbreak of health, I still don't see them even making the playoffs.

The Buccaneers have finished with a 5--11 record two years in a row. That may sound terrible, but folks connected with the Bucs point out that their murderous schedule included games against 11 playoff teams. And they managed to beat three of them: Minnesota, Detroit and Denver. While that may be true, the Buccaneers haven't won more than six games in a season since going 9--7 in 1981. If Tampa Bay goes 10--6 every year from now on, it will take them until the year 2021 to reach.500.

Coach Sam Wyche is a big booster of starting quarterback Craig Erickson, who last year threw for 3054 yards, 18 touchdowns and a dreadful 21 interceptions. As insurance for the future, the team wisely selected QB Trent Dilfer (Fresno State) with its first draft pick. Wyche feels that with an easier schedule this time around, the Bucs can compete for a playoff spot. I doubt it. With the departure of Reggie Cobb, the team needs more help at running back than second-round draft choice Errict Rhett (Florida) will provide. The offensive line is still weak.

Wyche is certain the Bucs are about to break their long string of more than 10 losses per season. If he wants to return next year, they'd better do just that.

The shadows of Bill Walsh and Joe Montana are finally fading in the San Francisco fog. Even the most finicky 49ers fans have to praise the accomplishments of coach George Seifert and quarterback Steve Young, both of whom have long been regarded as cheap substitutes for Walsh and Montana.

Seifert, a quiet, studious tactician, has a better record over his first five years (67 wins, 20 losses) than all but two other coaches in NFL history, Guy Chamberlain (Canton) and Paul Brown (Cleveland). Yet no one seems to recognize his accomplishment.

Young is underappreciated as well. He succeeded the injured Montana three years ago, and became the first quarterback to win three consecutive passing titles. Last year he also became the first San Francisco quarterback to throw for more than 4000 yards (4023) and led the NFL with 29 TD passes. He also threw 183 consecutive passes without an interception, breaking Montana's record.

The incomparable Jerry Rice led the NFL in reception yardage (1503) and touchdowns (15) while catching 98 passes, the second highest total in his career. He needs just three more touchdowns to break Jim Brown's record of 126. Young's other prime targets are John Taylor (56 catches, 940 yards) and Brent Jones, who led all NFL tight ends with 68 receptions. On the ground, Ricky Watters, who missed several games with injuries, still managed to pile up 950 yards. Draft pick William Floyd of Florida State was college football's top-rated fullback and could replace Tom Rathman in the Niner backfield.

In 1993, defense hurt the 49ers. They needed linebackers and signed a solid pair of free agents in Dallas' Ken Norton and San Diego's Gary Plummer. San Francisco has young talent to build on, namely defensive tackle Dana Stubblefield, 1993's NFC defensive rookie of the year, and number one draft pick Bryant Young (Notre Dame) to line up alongside him. The young guys will learn from free-agent pickup DE Richard Dent. The team has more than enough weapons to win its 11th Western title in 14 years and a record-setting fifth Super Bowl.

New Orleans coach and general manager Jim Mora is trying to find a way to get his Saints marching past the first round of the playoffs. The coach has made some changes, beginning with the signing of speedy Atlanta wide receiver Michael Haynes to a four-year, $10 million contract. "He's real fast, but you've still got to get him the ball," points out linebacker Rickey Jackson.

Management apparently understands that, too. The team traded for quarterback Jim Everett, who finished last season on the Rams' bench after slumping the last three years. Everett will get better protection in New Orleans and may turn his career around. Mora believes Everett is far better than Wade Wilson, who fell apart as New Orleans lost seven of its last nine games. Only rookie running back Derek Brown (705 yards), wide receiver Eric Martin (66 catches, 950 yards) and perhaps the NFL's best kicker, Morten Andersen (29 field goals), showed up on offense.

Last year's Saints defense, its traditional strength, was vulnerable mostly because of age, which is why Mora made DE Joe Johnson (Louisville) his first draft pick. Linebackers Sam Mills (34) and Rickey Jackson (35) had trouble stopping the run. Renaldo Turnbull, who replaced Pat Swilling, tied for an NFC-high 13 sacks while forcing five fumbles.

Mora, an underrated coach, is gambling big on a comeback from Everett, one that will take him to the playoffs. I think he's betting right.

There won't be any tickets set aside for Elvis Presley at the Georgia Dome box office in Atlanta. Jerry Glanville, the man behind the Presley nonsense, was fired after leading the Falcons to successive 6--10 records. June Jones, Glanville's offensive coordinator, is the Falcons' new head coach. "I know we'll move the ball and be exciting," he promises.

New quarterback Jeff George, obtained in a trade with Indianapolis, will love throwing to Andre Rison (86 receptions, 1242 yards and 15 touchdowns in 1993). And he'll also enjoy handing the ball to Erric Pegram, who last year rushed for 1185 yards.

Atlanta jumped into free agency to improve a weak secondary, signing D.J. Johnson (Pittsburgh) and Kevin Ross (Kansas City). Getting DE Chris Doleman, who had 12.5 sacks last year for the Vikings, was a steal. The one man they'd now love to sign is Deion Sanders, who in 11 games last year led the NFC with seven interceptions. But Sanders now says, "Maybe it's time to put all my focus on baseball." Atlanta hopes that's not the case.

Last year Rams head coach Chuck Knox suffered through the first five-game losing streak of his 21-year career, on the way to a 5--11 record. The future Hall of Famer has hinted this may be his last year. This may also be the Rams' last year in Anaheim; the team could move before the start of the 1995 season. In 1993 the Rams drew their lowest attendance--about 45,000 fans a game--since moving from the Los Angeles Coliseum in 1980.

They haven't given up on this year, however. The team signed quarterback Chris Miller of Atlanta, a Pro Bowl QB when healthy. Jerome Bettis had an impressive rookie year, running for 1429 yards, just 57 fewer than NFL leader Emmitt Smith. The Rams also have defensive tackle Sean Gilbert, who made it to the Pro Bowl in his second season.

Sadly, the Rams averaged just 13.8 points a game--only Indianapolis and Cincinnati scored less. Worse, only Tampa Bay, Indianapolis and Atlanta gave up more than the 22.9 points per game the Rams' defense averaged. It's the kind of performance only an NFL-deprived city like Baltimore, St. Louis or Memphis could love. Next year, they may get the chance.

Everybody knocks Buffalo, but with the exception of a certain game in January, all the Bills do is keep winning. No other team in the NFL has ever made it to the Super Bowl four consecutive years. This season the Bills are talking about a "Drive for Five in '95," and I like their chances. Buffalo still has a nucleus of impact players returning. Quarterback Jim Kelly had a superb 1993 season by passing for 3382 yards and 18 touchdowns; Thurman Thomas, one of the best all-around backs in the league, ran for 1315 yards; and tight end Pete Metzelaars' 68 receptions helped offset injuries to wide receiver Andre Reed.

Another reason Buffalo has the best record of the Nineties is defense. End Bruce Smith and linebackers Cornelius Bennett and Darryl Talley are Pro Bowlers. Despite being double- and triple-teamed in 1993, Smith had 14 sacks and a career-high 108 tackles.

"It might tick everybody else off, but they've got 16 weeks to line up and stop us," warns Talley. Super Bowl, here they come. Again.

After 27 years, the turbulent Robbie-family era has ended in Miami. Wayne Huizenga, who owned 15 percent of the Dolphins, bought the remaining 85 percent from the battling heirs and is now the nation's leading sports tycoon, having added the team to his baseball Marlins and hockey Panthers.

Last year Don Shula became the winningest coach in NFL history by posting his 325th victory in 31 years. But the season ended with a major downer: After running up a 9--2 record, the Dolphins lost their final five games and missed the playoffs. Their collapse ranks as one of the biggest in league history.

The Dolphins also lost quarterback Dan Marino after the fifth game with a torn Achilles tendon. Marino is 33, and Shula hopes he can make a full recovery. In case he can't, Miami has signed Bernie Kosar as insurance.

Rookie Terry Kirby was a big reason why Miami's offense was second in the NFL. He rushed and received for 1264 yards and led the team with 75 receptions. Keith Byars, another running back, added 61 catches, while wide receiver Irving Fryar gained 1010 yards on 64 receptions.

Defense was Miami's downfall. Linebacker Bryan Cox was tops with 122 tackles, but injuries again sidelined LB John Offerdahl. The Dolphins also need to strengthen their secondary. Drafting tackle Tim Bowens (Mississippi) won't provide immediate help.

The 64-year-old Shula may feel some pressure during the final year of his contract. He's led the Dolphins into the Super Bowl only once in the last ten years and hasn't won one in 20. Huizenga knows that Jimmy Johnson is available, and Jimmy has valuable experience in replacing legendary coaches. Just ask Tom Landry.

There's something happening in New England, and it all started with Bill Parcells. The former Giants coach, who was out of football for two years, has shaped the Patriots in the same manner he did the Giants, who won two Super Bowls. First he hired Ray Perkins as offensive coordinator. Next, he drafted a strongarmed quarterback and added a power runner, solid tight ends, a run-blocking offensive line and big, physical linebackers. Last year the Pats, the youngest team in the league, finished 5--11, but lost eight games by less than a touchdown. The team won its final four games and in the process knocked both Cleveland and Miami out of the playoffs. Drew Bledsoe threw for 2494 yards, with 15 touchdowns and as many interceptions. Not bad for a rookie.

Leonard Russell, Parcells' workhorse, ran for 1088 yards on 300 carries. Parcells traded for San Diego's Marion Butts, another powerful plodder. The acquisition of free-agent Giants guard Bob Kratch will bolster a young line.

Two other Giants free agents, linebacker Steve DeOssie and safety Myron Guyton, will improve the Pats' defense, as will first-round draft choice Willie McGinest of USC, a Lawrence Taylor clone. Parcells has pieced together a rugged young team that might make the playoffs this year.

Jets fans won't have Bruce Coslet to kick around anymore. After four years as New York's head coach (during which he compiled a 26--38 record), Coslet was fired less than two weeks after the team's 24--0 loss to Houston in the final game of the season cost it a playoff berth. The Jets played listlessly and knew it. "We didn't show up," remarked defensive end Marvin Washington. What a pity. I suppose that was Coslet's fault, too.

In any case, it was time for a change, and GM Dick Steinberg hired Pete Carroll, the team's former defensive coordinator. Last year Steinberg got quarterback Boomer Esiason from Cincinnati. Boomer started with a boom but threw only two touchdown passes in the Jets' final seven games. Esiason had enough protection (the Jets led the NFL by allowing only 21 sacks) but couldn't seem to get the ball to wide receiver Rob Moore or tight end Johnny Mitchell.

Another move Steinberg made was getting running back Johnny Johnson from the Cardinals on draft day in 1993. Johnson rushed for 821 yards and also led the team with 67 pass receptions. This year Steinberg may have made another draft-day steal with number one pick Aaron Glenn (Texas A&M), a cornerback and kick returner with blazing 4.3 speed in the 40. The Jets are blessed with a top-notch front office, but those guys don't suit up and kick ass on a football field.

Last winter was housecleaning time in Indianapolis. Bill Tobin (of Chicago Bears notoriety) is now the Colts' vice president of football operations, and it didn't take him long to begin operating. In 1993, the Colts finished last or next to last in 14 key defensive areas, the weakest being a per-game yield of 352 yards. He fired four defensive coaches and hired his brother Vince to be the Colts' new defensive coordinator. Vince Tobin acted in the same capacity with the Bears, so keep the accusations of nepotism to a minimum. Both Tobins are highly respected in football circles.

Unfortunately, the Colts' offense is also a catastrophe. Indianapolis averaged only 11.8 points a game last season; only Cincinnati was worse. Number one draft pick Marshall Faulk (San Diego State) figures to give Indy a respectable running game. The team dumped QB Jeff George in favor of ex-Bear Jim Harbaugh. Say what you want about Harbaugh, but he completed better than 61 percent of his passes for Chicago last year. George, on the other hand, clicked on only 57.5 percent.

Tobin's emphasis on defense caused him to sign a good free-agent linebacker, Tony Bennett of Green Bay. With his second pick on the first round, he grabbed LB Trev Alberts (Nebraska). If he could pick up another half dozen like them, the Colts might actually scare a few teams.

Third-year coach Bill Cowher has done a commendable job in replacing Chuck Noll, the Steelers coach who won four Super Bowls in his 22-year career. Cowher got Pittsburgh into the playoffs during each of his first two years, which was quite an accomplishment. After a 23--0 shutout of Buffalo on a Monday night last November, Steeler fans were thinking Super Bowl. But injuries to RB Barry Foster and QB Neil O'Donnell capsized the offense. Both return this season, and the combination of Foster's big-play ability and O'Donnell's steady passing should be potent.

Pittsburgh's massive tight end, Eric Green, caught 63 passes for 942 yards last year. O'Donnell looked for Green far too often, but only because his wide receivers had a year-long case of the dropsies. The Steelers have high hopes for number one draft pick Charles Johnson, a quick wide receiver from Colorado.

All-Pro cornerback Rod Woodson is the best of a defense that allowed more than 28 points only once. The unit lost end Donald Evans to the Jets but replaced him with a better one, Ray Seals of Tampa Bay. Linebacker Kevin Greene led the Steelers in sacks with 12-1/2. I look for Pittsburgh to overtake the depleted Oilers for the Central title.

You wouldn't have heard many arguments last season if the Oilers' Jack Pardee had been voted coach of the year. After opening 1--4, Pardee was a loss away from being fired. At that point his players pulled together to win 11 straight games and the Central crown. (That was the longest winning streak in the NFL since the 1972 Dolphins went 17--0.) Unfortunately, for the seventh consecutive time, Houston didn't make it to the AFC championship game.

"We never did anything in a little way," Pardee said, smiling. "It seemed no matter what we did, we made national news." For instance, there was the game in which Oilers defensive coordinator Buddy Ryan threw a punch at offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride. Now Buddy's in Arizona and Gilbride is the new assistant head coach, so the team can once again concentrate on the field.

As far as Oilers fans were concerned, the loss of quarterback Warren Moon was the biggest news of the spring. Moon was traded to Minnesota for draft choices, a trade he accepted but never really wanted. Strong-armed Cody Carlson is the team's new starting QB and could break out after years as Moon's backup. Carlson could get some help if wideout Webster Slaughter has recovered from the torn knee ligaments he suffered in a game last December. Gary Brown is the new hero of Oilers fans. When Lorenzo White went down, Brown took over and ran for 1002 yards on only 195 carries.

It'll be interesting to see how the Oilers' defense performs now that Ryan is moving his smash-mouth brand of football to Arizona. The atmosphere figures to be a lot more civil than when Buddy was around, but not necessarily more productive.

Last year in Cleveland, team owner Art Modell seemed to be burned out. Why else would he have released quarterback Bernie Kosar, who had the Browns in first place after eight games? Without Kosar the Browns won only two of their last eight.

Still, the Browns moved the ball well under replacement Vinny Testaverde, who recovered from a separated shoulder to throw 14 TD passes in about a half-season's work. In May, Cleveland signed Washington's Mark Rypien to give the Browns some much-needed depth at QB. Whoever calls the signals, he'll benefit from having little Eric Metcalf operating out of the backfield. He led the NFL with 1932 all-purpose yards, and figures to keep the Browns moving this year as well.

Meanwhile, Cleveland's defense failed to live up to its preseason hype. Behemoth tackle Jerry Ball was a bust, but after a slow start, tackle Michael Dean Perry finished strong. Top draft pick CB Antonio Langham (Alabama) could be an impact player. The Browns had a good draft, but they remain at least several players away from winning the Central Division.

In football, as in the shopping mall, you get what you pay for, which explains why Cincinnati finished with the worst record in the NFL last year, 3--13. The Bengals had the lowest payroll in the league and it showed. Maybe that's why owner Mike Brown forgave head coach Dave Shula his two-year, 8--24 record and granted him a two-year contract extension.

Last year's Bengals were one of the lousiest teams ever assembled. Cincy was 27th against the run, featured a running attack that also ranked 27th in the NFL and gave up a league-high 53 sacks. That evidently caused Mike Brown to sign Miami safety Louis Oliver and Seattle offensive guard Darrick Brilz, both of whom will prevent the Bengals from being regarded as a bad joke. The team's ineptitude also earned Cincinnati this year's number one draft choice. The Bengals wisely drafted titanic Ohio State defensive tackle Dan Wilkinson and, by signing him to a six-year, $14.4 million contract, made him the highest-paid player in team history.

Unfortunately, none of this is going to help poor David Klingler. There wasn't a more bedeviled quarterback in the league last fall--he virtually ran for his life with every snap of the ball. His longest completion was for 51 yards, and that came on a screen pass. The Bengals scored only 14 touchdowns in 1993, a total that was individually surpassed by Jerry Rice, Marcus Allen and Andre Rison. This team still qualifies for federal disaster relief.

Perhaps Denver coach Wade Phillips wishes he had remained as the team's defensive coordinator. It took him only one season as the Broncos' head coach to land in the hospital with stomach problems, but that can happen after you promise big things and finish 9--7.

If the Broncos play the same way they did in their final two games of 1993--they lost the season finale and playoff opener to the Raiders--Phillips is going to feel it in his gut again. Denver's wildcard defeat in L.A. was a sad ending to the best season QB John Elway has ever had. Elway finished as the AFC's number one passer by virtue of completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 4030 yards and 25 touchdowns--all career highs. He managed to do this without a firstclass wide receiver. Most of his completions were to tight end Shannon Sharpe, who caught 81 passes for 995 yards and nine touchdowns.

Elway will definitely have a big-play wide receiver this year. The Broncos signed a pair of talented free agents--San Diego's Anthony Miller, a Pro Bowler in four of his six seasons, and speedy Atlanta wideout Mike Pritchard. I look for Elway to have another terrific year. The Broncos' defense is no longer the Orange Crush of the past--age has slowed linebacker Karl Mecklenburg and safety Dennis Smith, among others--but it will do. And linebacker Simon Fletcher is very solid; in 1993, he led the team in sacks (13.5) for the third straight year.

The combination of offense, Elway's ability to lead the Broncos back from the dead in the fourth quarter, and an aging defense, should make things exciting in Denver this season. When the smoke clears, they should have the division title, and Wade Phillips should be cured of his bellyache.

Winning the Western Division last year has Chiefs fans hungry for their first trip to the Super Bowl since 1970. The team probably would have gone all the way if its defense hadn't played erratically. Despite holding 11 of their opponents to under 300 yards, personifying the NFL's sack leader in end Neil Smith (15) and racking up the third most take-aways in the league (38), the Chiefs still gave up 30 or more points in four games.

This year, defense will be a concern again. The Chiefs lost linebacker Lonnie Marts, cornerback Albert Lewis and safety Kevin Ross to free agency. The addition of DT Tony Casillas (Dallas) and CB Mark Collins (Giants) will be a big help, as will the arrival of backup QB Steve Bono from San Francisco.

As the Chiefs sort through the defensive questions, they must also ponder geriatrics: Do Joe Montana and Marcus Allen have enough left in them to survive another campaign?

Now showing in the Western Division, Raiders of the Lost Park. An earthquake earlier this year damaged Los Angeles Coliseum, possibly leaving the Raiders to play in Dodger Stadium or return to Oakland. And that's only this season's predicament. After all these years, one still can't be sure where owner Al Davis will move his team. In the spring he was negotiating with officials in Orlando, Florida, but talks broke down when Davis reportedly wanted too much from the city.

Davis still loves Oakland, and the fans there still love the Raiders. Fact is, the Raiders were the last AFC team to beat the NFC in a Super Bowl. That was in 1984, and the Raiders haven't been back to the big game since. Davis' boys almost got there last season. They dominated the Bills during the first half of the AFC championship game but then produced only one first down in the second half and lost, 29--23. Davis was upset, and coach Art Shell has felt the pressure.

Quarterback Jeff Hostetler gave the Raiders the look of a Super Bowl team. In his first season in Los Angeles, Hostetler played through a series of injuries and still managed to throw for 3242 yards. Led by Tim Brown (80 catches for 1180 yards), the Raiders--with James Jett, Alexander Wright and Rocket Ismail--possess the fleetest corps of wide receivers in pro football.

On defense, the retirement of Howie Long will open up more time for future All-Pro tackle Chester McGlockton. End Anthony Smith, another force in the defensive line, registered 12.5 sacks. The Raiders strengthened their secondary by signing free agent Kansas City cornerback Albert Lewis and beefed up their offensive line by landing prized Dallas guard Kevin Gogan. Now all the team needs is a stadium in which to throw the victory party.

Last season the Chargers were picked to win the West, and why not? Second year head coach Bobby Ross never expected his guys to unravel and finish 8--8. San Diego's troubles began with a shoulder injury to quarterback Stan Humphries during an exhibition game, and then six other starters went down during the regular season.

The unraveling continued in the off season. San Diego didn't have a firstround draft pick this year and lost three standout starters to free agency: wide receiver Anthony Miller, linebacker Gary Plummer and defensive end Burt Grossman. GM Bobby Beathard countered by signing Denver wide receiver Vance Johnson, Miami receiver Tony Martin, Arizona defensive end Reuben Davis and Seattle cornerback Dwayne Harper. Nice try, but the Chargers won't be a factor in the rugged AFC West this season.

Last year Seattle coach Tom Flores, a former quarterback himself, made Notre Dame QB Rick Mirer the Seahawks' top draft choice. His judgment paid off quickly as the rookie led Seattle to a 6--10 season. Despite being sacked 47 times, Mirer completed more passes (274) for more yards (2833) than any other rookie in NFL history. It showed on the scoreboard, as the Seahawks scored twice as many points as they did in 1992.

Mirer's favorite receiver was Brian Blades, who caught a club-record 80 passes for 945 yards. Chris Warren had his second straight 1000-yard season. In Cortez Kennedy, the Seahawks have the league's premiere defensive tackle, and safety Eugene Robinson made All-Pro for the second straight year. He'll be joined in the secondary by Buffalo cornerback Nate Odomes, a fine free-agent pickup.

But free agency cuts both ways, and it really hurt Seattle's offensive line. Having lost tackle Andy Heck and guard Darrick Brilz--Look out, Rick! Here they come again!--Flores is going to have to rebuild the line for the fourth straight year. Under Flores, the Seahawks continue to improve every season, but they'll have to wait until their offensive line is shored up and Mirer comes of age before they can take the next step.

Danny Sheridan's

Picks

American Football Conference

Eastern Division.........................Buffalo Bills

Central Division.........................Pittsburgh Steelers

Western Division..............................Denver Broncos

Wild Cards...............................Miami Dolphins/Kansas City Chiefs/Los Angeles Raiders

AFC Champion..................................Buffalo Bills

National Football Conference

Eastern Division.........................Dallas Cowboys

Central Division.........................Minnesota Vikings

Western Division.........................San Francisco 49ers

Wild Cards...............................Arizona Cardinals/Green Bay Packers/New Orleans Saints

NFC Champion.............................San Francisco 49ers

Super Bowl Champion: San Francisco 49ers

Playboy's 1994 Preseason

All-Pro Team

Offense

Troy Aikman, Dallas......................Quarterback

Emmitt Smith, Dallas..........................Running Back

Barry Sanders, Detroit........................Running Back

Michael Irvin, Dallas.........................Wide Receiver

Jerry Rice, San Francisco.....................Wide Receiver

Eric Green, Pittsburgh.......................Tight End

Harris Barton, San Francisco..................Tackle

Erik Williams, Dallas.........................Tackle

Randall McDaniel, Minnesota...................Guard

Steve Wisniewski, Los Angeles Raiders.........Guard

Bruce Matthews, Houston.......................Center

Defense

Bruce Smith, Buffalo.....................End

Reggie White, Green Bay.......................End

Cortez Kennedy, Seattle.......................Tackle

Sean Gilbert, Los Angeles Rams................Tackle

Junior Seau, San Diego........................Inside Linebacker

Seth Joyner, Arizona..........................Outside Linebacker

Greg Lloyd, Pittsburgh........................Outside Linebacker

Rod Woodson, Pittsburgh........................Cornerback

Eric Allen, Philadelphia.......................Cornerback

Tim McDonald, San Francisco...................Safety

Marcus Robertson, Houston.....................Safety

Specialties

Rich Camarillo, Houston..................Punter

Morten Andersen, New Orleans..................Placekicker

Raghib Ismail, Los Angeles Raiders............Kick and Punt Returner

Steve Tasker, Buffalo.................................Special Teams

Mike Morris, Minnesota................................Long Snapper

Eastern Division

National Football Conference

Dallas....................11-5

Arizona*.......................9-7

Philadelphia...................7-9

New York Giants................7-9

Washington.....................6-10

*Wild-card team

"Switzer is a great motivator. That may be all his players need for a third straight Super Bowl victory."

Central Division

National Football Conference

Minnesota....................9-7

Green Bay*........................9-7

Chicago...........................8-8

Detroit...........................6-10

Tampa Bay.........................5-11

*Wild-card team

Western Division

National Football Conference

San Francisco....................11-5

New Orleans*..........................9-7

Atlanta...............................8-8

Los Angeles Rams......................8-8

*Wild-card team

Eastern Division

American Football Conference

Buffalo....................11-5

Miami*..........................10-6

New England.....................9-7

New York Jets...................6-10

Indianapolis....................5-11

*Wild-card team

Central Division

American Football Conference

Pittsburgh....................10-6

Houston............................9-7

Cleveland..........................5-11

Cincinnati.........................3-13

Western Division

American Football Conference

Denver....................10-6

Kansas City*...................10-6

Los Angeles Raiders*...........9-7

San Diego......................7-9

Seattle........................7-9

*Wild-card team