Playboy's Pro Football Forecast

After the most turbulent and chaotic year in its history, the National Football League may wish to reflect on what it's doing. I hesitate to point out the obvious, but the NFL has suddenly become all about teams moving into new stadiums in new cities. Instead of being the Tiffany of sports leagues, the NFL looks like a hangout for wheeler-dealers ready to turn a fast buck.

Rams owner Georgia Frontiere started the league's rush to relocation (or is it dislocation?) at a special meeting of owners a month after the NFL's 1995 winter meetings. That's when she received permission to go to St. Louis. That's also when all hell broke loose. Over the next ten months, four more owners broke faith with their teams' fans and cities:

Al Davis took his Raiders back to Oakland without league approval (which came after the fact). In November, Art Modell announced he was moving his Browns to Baltimore. Bud Adams was desperately hoping to ship his Oilers to Nashville (he'll have to wait a year or two). In Seattle, Ken Behring had moving vans transport the Seahawks' equipment to Anaheim.

Welcome to the Nomadic Football League. Is this any way for the NFL to conduct itself?

Football fans don't think so, and neither do a number of team owners, including the Buffalo Bills' venerable Ralph Wilson. "We need to take a stand about franchise free agency and this should be that time," he says. "Let's fight it out."

Unfortunately, NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue may not have Wilson's moxie. It was Tagliabue who opened the floodgates by approving the Rams' move, and thus gave every NFL team the right to go wherever a sweetheart stadium deal takes them.

When Tagliabue saw the unintended results of his ruling, he showed some spine and ordered the Seahawks to shift their off-season workouts from Anaheim back to Seattle.

Let's talk football instead of economics. Last season Miami's Don Shula "retired" after 33 years on the job (he's the NFL's winningest coach). Dolphin fans got their man in Jimmy Johnson and the Dallas Cowboys won a Super Bowl with Barry Switzer. Dan Marino set four career passing records and Jerry Rice became the NFL's all-time leading touchdown-maker.

What can we expect to see this fall? I'm going with the 49ers to win an unprecedented sixth Super Bowl. I also make the NFC an 11-point favorite to win its 13th straight Super Bowl. Can't anyone in the AFC play this game? We'll see about that soon. Let's start with the NFC:

Pardon Jerry Jones for smirking. The so-called experts said he didn't know what he was doing when he bought the Cowboys and fired legendary head coach Tom Landry. They said it was dumb to hire Jimmy Johnson and even dumber to replace him with Barry Switzer.

Jones, who's obsessed with winning, never lost his cool. The bottom line is that Dallas, the team of the decade, has won three of the past four Super Bowls. But the Cowboys' latest ride to the championship was bumpier than it seemed. A much-reported rift between Switzer and quarterback Troy Aikman threatened to split the team into factions.

Switzer defused the time bomb. "Winning is more important than any relationship you have with any player," he calmly explains. "Everybody would like Utopia, but life doesn't work that way."

What worked for the Cowboys were the brilliant performances of Aikman, running back Emmitt Smith and wide receiver Michael Irvin. Aikman threw for 3304 yards, 16 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. Smith ran for a career-high 1773 yards and set an NFL season record with 25 TDs. Irvin also had a career year (111 receptions for 1603 yards and 10 touchdowns), but his drug arrest several months ago left an uneasy feeling around Cowboy headquarters in Valley Ranch.

Free agency took a big bite out of the Dallas defense. Gone are cornerback (and Super Bowl MVP) Larry Brown, linebacker Dixon Edwards and defensive tackle Russell Maryland. Dallas has lost 21 of its top players to free agency in the past three years. The Cowboys' superstar offense has yet to show signs of slowing, but their seemingly bottomless pool of defensive talent has begun to dry up.

Teams ran on Dallas last year. The Cowboys' defense against the rush was 16th best in the league, and despite Deion Sanders, their pass defense was ranked only eighth. Even so, I still think the NFL is a two-tiered league: Dallas and San Francisco, and everybody else.

Last season the Eagles resembled an expansion team. They had a new (and first-time) head coach in Ray Rhodes, and an entirely new coaching staff. At Rhodes' urging, Philadelphia signed 34 new players, the most ever for a nonexpansion team. The results? Philly, the surprise of the NFC, finished 10-6 and reached the playoffs.

Rhodes, voted NFC coach of the year, did a masterful job. During the season, the Eagles were outscored by 20 points. They had the second-worst passing attack in the league. And they started the season by losing three of their first four games.

That's when Rhodes made his boldest move: He benched QB Randall Cunningham and replaced him with Dallas discard Rodney Peete. Peete passed for only eight TDs and was intercepted 14 times, yet he somehow led the Eagles to victory in nine of the 12 games he appeared in.

Philly's most valuable offensive asset is RB Ricky Watters, who came along with Rhodes from San Francisco. Last year Watters ran for 1273 yards and 11 touchdowns. He also caught 62 passes for 434 yards and one TD. All told, Watters accounted for 36 percent of the Eagles' offense.

"Ricky Watters is our Michael Jordan," says Eagles offensive coordinator (continued on page 118) Pro Football Forecast (continued from page 110) Jon Gruden.

Philly's defense, which has no household names, was the league's second-toughest to pass against. Linebacker William Thomas had seven interceptions and defensive end William Fuller rang up 13 sacks.

The Redskins showed enough improvement in their second season under head coach Norv Turner to assure him and general manager Charley Casserly of jobs for another year. Despite the team's 6-10 finish, team owner Jack Kent Cooke was genuinely thrilled by the Redskins' two wins over divisional rival Dallas. In both of those games, Washington stuffed Emmitt Smith when it had to and held him to less than 100 yards.

The Skins' offense was a pleasant surprise. Unheralded free-agent RB Terry Allen rushed for 1309 yards and ten touchdowns. In his 13th season, WR Henry Ellard (who played his first 11 with the Rams), pulled down 56 receptions for 1005 yards. He'll make life easier for second-year receiver Michael Westbrook.

Washington's raging quarterback controversy is almost (but not quite) over. After the team's top 1994 draft choice, Heath Shuler, separated his shoulder in the season opener, lightly regarded Gus Frerotte took over and refused to fall apart. We'll see what happens.

The Skins' defense against the run, 29th in the league, was the team's weakest link. Defensive tackle Sean Gilbert, who was acquired in a trade with St. Louis, will provide some welcome muscle.

Going into last season, New York head coach Dan Reeves predicted his Giants might go 11-5 and challenge Dallas for the divisional title. The Giants opened at home against the Cowboys and were routed 35-0. Reeves' guys never recovered. The Giants finished 5-11 and didn't beat a single team with a winning record.

New York's passing attack was the lousiest in the league and figures to remain that way this fall. The Giants' lone offensive standout was Rodney Hampton, who rushed for a career-high 1182 yards and ten touchdowns. During the winter, the 49ers made Hampton, then a free agent, an offer he couldn't refuse. The Giants were smart to match it and hold on to him.

New York's defense, traditionally its trademark, was AWOL last year. Opposing teams ran through the Giants at will. Top draft choice Cedric Jones, a defensive end from Oklahoma, should help the Giants tighten up.

Vince Tobin, who did a great job as defensive coordinator for the Colts, is the Cardinals' new head coach, the fifth hired since owner Bill Bidwill moved from St. Louis in 1988. Tobin takes over a 4-12 team that's getting old. The team's newest passing threat is 35-year-old Boomer Esiason, the Cards' 12th starting quarterback since moving to the desert. Arizona has a couple of fine young RBs in Garrison Hearst (1070 yards in 1995) and Larry Centers (who caught 101 passes for 962 yards, an NFL record for a running back).

Tobin's forte is defense, and he has a pair of Pro Bowl players in tackle Eric Swann and CB Aeneas Williams. Illinois DE Simeon Rice, Tobin's top draft choice, seems to have all the tools necessary for superstardom. The rest of the Cards' cast is mostly made up of bit players. Even though Bidwill is again ready to relocate the team--this time he's talking about Los Angeles--the Cards really aren't going anywhere.

Brett Favre has arrived big-time. Last season he came into his own as a quarterback, and was the league's MVP. Favre led the Packers to an 11-5 season and the divisional title before running out of heroics against Dallas in the NFC championship game. During the season, Favre completed 63 percent of his passes for 4413 yards and 38 touchdowns, with only 13 interceptions. Off-season he admitted to drug abuse--pain medication--and entered a substance-abuse program. Outcome uncertain.

General manager Ron Wolf and head coach Mike Holmgren have done a great job in rebuilding the Packers. Edgar Bennett (1067 yards) was Green Bay's first 1000--yard runner since 1978. Receiver Robert Brooks, with 102 receptions for 1497 yards and 13 touchdowns, made up for the loss of All-Pro Sterling Sharpe. Tight end Mark Chmura (54 receptions for 679 yards) was so impressive that the Packers made him a millionaire.

Green Bay's pass defense (21st in the league) obviously needs improvement, but the Packers have an excellent seventh-ranked rushing defense. One needn't be a cheesehead to realize the Packers are poised for a serious run at the Super Bowl.

After reaching the playoffs in his second year as a head coach, Dave Wannstedt eagerly awaited the 1995 season. He thought the Bears were ready to take the Central Division title. When the Bears won six of their first eight games, a lot of people agreed with him. But then Chicago blew a big lead at home and lost to Pittsburgh in overtime. That game cost the Bears their confidence and their season. Chicago's 9-7 finish wasn't good enough to make the playoffs.

Quarterback Erik Kramer wasn't part of the team's disappearing act. Last year he shattered every single-season Bears passing record: most attempts (522), most completions (315), most passing yards (3838), most touchdowns (29) and fewest interceptions (ten).

The loss of free agent Jeff Graham, Kramer's leading receiver (82 receptions for 1301 yards), upset the quarterback. But Curtis Conway also had a big year (62 for 1037 yards). He'll be the team's deep threat.

Chicago's offense, with rookie back Rashaan Salaam running for 1074 yards and ten TDs, had more than enough punch to propel the Bears into the playoffs. Unfortunately, Chicago's pathetic pass defense (27th in the league) sealed the Bears' fate. That's why Wannstedt's first-round draft choice was Mississippi State cornerback Walt Harris. That's also why the Bears signed volatile Miami linebacker Bryan Cox.

The Bears have extended Wannstedt's contract. Wise move.

Deposed Buccaneers head coach Sam Wyche said it about a month after he was fired: "I'd give anything to be back one more year. A couple of lucky bounces and I'm a hero instead of an idiot."

Wyche put together a competitive 7-9 Bucs team that has been inherited by former Vikings defensive coordinator Tony Dungy. Says Dungy, "We feel that we're going to make a run at the playoffs."

That may be possible, but Tampa (continued on page 144) Pro Football Forecast (continued from page 118) Bay hasn't had a winning season since 1982. The reason the Bucs didn't make the playoffs last year--after a 5-2 start--was mostly because Wyche and QB Trent Dilfer weren't on the same page, maybe not even in the same state. Dilfer threw only four touchdown passes--and an incredibly awful 18 interceptions. That's worst NFL quarterback stat I've ever come across.

The Bucs' best man on offense was RB Errict Rhett, who rambled for 1207 yards and 11 touchdowns. His counterpart on defense was LB Hardy Nickerson, who once again made more than 100 tackles. California defensive end Regan Upshaw, the first of Dungy's many high-end draft selections, is considered an impact player.

"If you can communicate your ideas to the players, they will get the job done," Dungy believes. He is now communicating with his quarterback.

Nearly every year team owner William Ford issues an ultimatum: If the Lions don't achieve a certain goal, he'll fire head coach Wayne Fontes. Last year, Fontes was fated to hit the bricks if the Lions didn't make the playoffs. They did, but were trounced in a wild-card game by the Eagles, 58-37.

In that game QB Scott Mitchell didn't remotely resemble the cool hand who passed for 4338 yards and 32 touchdowns during the season. Detroit's 23rd-ranked defense--which got it together during its last four games--crashed and burned against the Eagles. Ford's edict this year is that Fontes will be gone if the Lions don't make it to the second round of the playoffs. Enough already, William. Fontes led the Lions to a 10-6 finish.

The Lions offense was the NFL's best by far. Great wide receivers in Herman Moore and Brett Perriman. Great Barry Sanders gained 1500 yards, second in the league only to Emmitt Smith. Great Scott Mitchell may have choked against the Eagles, but he was murder up until then. Wayne's boys are only a few defenders and a year or two away from becoming an established NFL powerhouse.

The Vikings are slipping, but they don't seem worried about it. They have other things on their minds. Last year head coach Dennis Green and QB Warren Moon spent a lot of time in court on personal matters. After the season WR Cris Carter publicly bitched that the Vikings didn't pass to him enough in the final game, which cost him the chance to break Herman Moore's single-season record of 123 receptions. Carter wound up with 122.

If conspiracy was afoot in the Metro-dome, Carter knew that Moon wasn't the man calling the shots. The missile-armed 39-year-old fired 606 times for 4228 yards and 33 touchdowns, with only 14 interceptions.

But wouldn't both Moon's and the Vikings' record last season have been better than 8-8 if Minnesota had a stronger running back? The Vikes let Terry Allen slip away, but in Washington he doubled the 632 yards gained by his ballyhooed replacement, Robert Smith. Word on the speedy Smith is that he isn't durable enough for the NFL.

Neither is the once-vaunted Vikings defense. Last year Minnesota gave up almost 25 points a game, its most ineffective showing since 1984. The Vikings' top two draft choices, DE Duane Clemons (California), and DT James Manley (Vanderbilt), are big, tough and talented. They'll help out immediately. But how much help can they deliver? The Vikings need a whole bunch.

The 49ers' short reign as Super Bowl champs ended with a 27-17 upset loss to Green Bay in a home playoff game. Team owner Ed DeBartolo takes 49er losses personally. One result of last season: Former head coach Bill Walsh is now a consultant to offensive coordinator Marc Trestman, and both men are comfortable with the arrangement. So is head coach George Seifert. No one's nose was bent out of shape. These are the 49ers, who pride themselves on their organizational cool.

But the organization sometimes makes mistakes, especially with players whose personalities seem too painful to put up with. If Charles Haley had been just slightly more civil, Jerry Jones would still be merely a hunk of burning ambition. And the Niners would own at least two more Super Bowl trophies. Did San Francisco let RB Ricky Watters go last year because they couldn't afford him or because they couldn't abide him? That decision probably cost them another Super Bowl title.

Still, it's hard to argue with the 49ers' brain trust. George Seifert has been the winningest head coach in the NFL since taking over for Walsh in 1989. DeBartolo measures his success by Super Bowl titles. He has five and Jones has three, but the Cowboys won two during the Tom Landry era. That makes it Niners five, Cowboys five, which pisses the 49ers off.

The 49ers didn't think Watters' departure would leave the team without a running game, but now they know better. After the Giants trumped their offer to Rodney Hampton, San Francisco signed Johnny Johnson, a 931-yard ground-gainer for the Jets in 1994. Johnson sat out last year in a contract dispute, but he's happy now. Team president Carmen Policy signed six other free agents, including DE Chris Doleman, who'll pump up the team's pass rush. That was San Francisco's only noticeable defensive flaw. The 49ers' top-ranked total defense was number one against the run and 11th against the pass. They'll be better.

So will the offense. Last year's banged-up offensive line is now improved and in great shape. So is Steve Young, who missed five games because of injuries. He has since devoted himself to weight-lifting. Last fall Young threw for 3200 yards and 20 TDs, down from his 1994 numbers. He'll be better. Jerry Rice rang up another banner year: 122 receptions, 1848 yards and 15 touchdowns. He's now the NFL's all-time leader in all three categories. Rice can't get any better. Can he?

The 49ers think they'll be ready for the Cowboys, the only opponent they're concerned about. (They didn't prepare properly for Green Bay and they know it.) Bright, bright management. Would you like to tangle with the firm of DeBartolo, Policy, Seifert and Walsh? Now you know how the rest of the NFL feels.

Last season the 9-7 Falcons made the playoffs for only the fifth time in 30 years. The Falcons were 7-1 in the Georgia Dome and now have to figure out how to win more often on the road, where they lost four cliff-hangers.

"If we had won some of those games, the whole thing might have been different," said RB Craig "Ironhead" Heyward, who ran for 1083 yards.

Quarterback Jeff George showed why so many teams were after him and why the Falcons offered him a multimillion-dollar contract. George completed 60.3 percent of his passes for 4143 yards and 24 touchdowns. He threw a mere 11 interceptions. George held up his end of the Falcons' run-and-shoot offense. As a result, Atlanta produced four 1000-yard performers. Heyward rushed for his; receivers Eric Metcalf (104 receptions for 1189 yards), Terance Mathis and Bert Emanuel (both gained 1039) caught theirs.

Morten Andersen, the great placekicker from New Orleans, also set records--for most 50-yard-plus field goals in a game (three) and in a season (eight).

Atlanta's downfall was its pass defense, which was the poorest in the NFL. The Falcons gave up 4541 passing yards, the most in pro football history. Buffalo free agent LB Cornelius Bennett figures to help reduce that figure, but not enough for anyone but statisticians to notice.

Quickie trivia test: Which active NFL head coach has held his job longest? The answer is the Saints' Jim Mora, who begins his 11th season in the Crescent City. He and meddlesome team owner Tom Benson had a blowup in October after the Saints lost their first five games. Mora, the winningest coach in Saints history, knows he could be history if the Saints don't make the playoffs. He's not exactly quaking in his sneakers. Mora isn't the kind of guy who would forgive or forget the tirade Benson laid on him. Three of Mora's top assistant coaches went to work for other teams this season because they couldn't stand Benson. So did a number of key players, including Quinn Early, the Saints' top receiver (81 receptions for 1087 yards and eight TDs), and tight end Wesley Walls.

It's still a little bit of a secret, but New Orleans can move the ball pretty well. Last year QB Jim Everett threw for 26 touchdowns and 3970 yards, and RB Mario Bates galloped for 951.

The Saints finished 21st in rushing defense and 22nd in air defense. Defensive tackle Wayne Martin recorded 13 sacks and CB Eric Allen made the Pro Bowl, but those are about the only real stoppers New Orleans has. Mora, who has compiled the NFL's second-best road record (43-37) since 1986, knows he has to come up strong to keep that car-dealing owner off his back.

It was almost a Cinderella year for the Rams in 1995: A new coach, a new city and a sold-out stadium. After opening with four wins in a row, St. Louis ended with a three-game losing streak. But the Rams finished 7-9, a big improvement on their 4-12 record of the year before.

New head coach Rich Brooks, who compiled a mediocre record at Oregon, proved the skeptics wrong. "This isn't a long-term project," he said when he got to St. Louis. "A healthy quarterback would help, and the running game must improve."

Neither of those potentialities eventuated. (OK, I confess: Sometimes I miss Howard Cosell.) Quarterback Chris Miller suffered his fifth concussion in 14 months, and by December he was out of football. Jerome Bettis, the team's 1000-yard runner, was a holdout. He reported late and gained only 637 yards. The Rams practically gave him away to Pittsburgh on draft day, when they placed their future in the hands of controversial RB Lawrence Phillips of Nebraska.

Wide receiver Isaac Bruce, the Rams' offensive star last year, snared 119 passes for 1781 yards and 13 touchdowns. I'm still puzzled as to why he wasn't picked for the Pro Bowl. Does anyone out there know a star when they see one? Or a quarterback? The Rams apparently do. St. Louis signed Steve Walsh, who was 9-3 as a starter for Chicago in 1994.

On defense, D'Marco Farr--who came into the NFL as an undrafted free agent--and his 11 1/2 sacks raised a lot of eyebrows in NFL player personnel departments. The Rams didn't start out with a worthless defense, but certainly wound up with one: In its final six games, St. Louis gave up an average of 35.5 points. That's why the Rams signed San Diego pass rusher Leslie O'Neal.

He can't save them, but he'll try.

How did the Panthers get so good so fast? Two words: great management. Owner Jerry Richardson put together a savvy front office that included team president Mike McCormack (a Hall of Famer) and general manager Bill Polian, who made the Buffalo Bills into an AFC power.

The first and smartest move Carolina made was hiring head coach Dom Capers. After an 0-5 start, the Panthers wound up beating such playoff teams as Atlanta, Indianapolis and San Francisco. They did it with defense. Thirty-six-year-old LB Sam Mills, in his tenth NFL season, led the Panthers in tackles, forced fumbles and fumble recoveries. Mills had career highs in interceptions and sacks. Safety Brett Maxie was also a force, with six interceptions and a career-high 105 tackles. Ex-Steeler LB Kevin Greene will make the defense tougher.

His stats didn't reflect it, but QB Kerry Collins, Carolina's first college-draft choice, took over as the starter in the fourth game of the season, and improved every week thereafter. He played with confidence and poise. Panthers fans are starting to think playoff in Charlotte's new stadium.

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Dolphins fans don't have Don Shula to kick around anymore. After Miami finished 9-7 and was knocked out of the playoffs by Buffalo, team owner Wayne Huizenga finally released Shula and replaced him with Jimmy Johnson, for whom Dolphin fans have been clamoring for two years. Johnson is no stranger to the city: J.J. guided the University of Miami to a national title before departing for Dallas and the then-hapless Cowboys.

Johnson is a draft-day wizard, and was up to his usual tricks this spring. He started with eight draft selections, and, by trading down, walked off with a dozen. He'll use them to replace three of Miami's best defensive players lost through free agency--linebacker Bryan Cox, defensive end Marco Coleman and cornerback Troy Vincent. The Dolphin defense was rated 16th in the league last year, and doesn't really figure to get much better.

At least Johnson still has QB Dan Marino, who sets new NFL records every time he passes. Last fall Marino completed more than 64 percent of his attempts for 3668 yards and 24 touch-downs (with only 15 interceptions). Johnson replaced departed free agent WR' Irving Fryar with Philly's Fred Barnett, who was injured for part of 1995. He'll line up with O.J. McDuffie, Marino's favorite target.

Running backs Bernie Parmalee (878 yards) and Terry Kirby (414) were Miami's leading ground gainers last year. Johnson would love to find another Emmitt Smith, which is why he drafted RBs Karim Abdul-Jabbar (UCLA), Stanley Pritchett (South Carolina) and Jerris McPhail (East Carolina).

"We're the team to beat," Johnson says. He believes that, and so do I. Look for Miami to win the Super Bowl within three years. Yo, Jimmy: Welcome back.

Patriots head coach Bill Parcells is ticked off, and that alone spells trouble for the rest of the AFC. After making the playoffs in 1994, New England floundered and finished a disappointing 6-10. Why? In part because the team allowed three of QB Drew Bledsoe's top receivers to leave and play elsewhere. To make matters worse, Bledsoe spent most of the season trying to overcome shoulder problems. Not surprisingly, his stats were down considerably from 1994. Bledsoe tossed for 3507 yards but had only 13 touchdowns (and 16 interceptions). His prime target was again tight end Ben Coates (84 receptions for 915 yards). Wide receiver Vincent Brisby's numbers--66 receptions for 974 yards--would have been a lot better if he hadn't dropped so many passes. The New England offense got terrific mileage out of rookie Curtis Martin, the AFC's leading ground-gainer with 1487 yards (and 14 touchdowns).

So why is Parcells steamed? He wanted the team's first-round choice to be an aggressive stud who could step right in and help the team's defense (28th in the league last year). But the Patriots' front office had rated Ohio State wide receiver Terry Glenn the second best player in the draft. Glenn was still available when the Patriots got on the clock. Owner Robert Kraft (good guy) wasn't happy to do it, but he overruled his coach.

This will be Parcells' final season in New England. He won't walk out a loser.

They won't go away, no matter how many times they've been whipped in the Super Bowl. After a subpar 1994, the Bills bounced back to win the East with a 10-6 record despite a tidal wave of injuries. Coach Marv Levy, who missed three games himself with a prostate cancer operation (he's OK), succinctly explained the Bills' turnaround: "We got magnificent leadership from our veteran players." Levy isn't chopped liver himself. The leadership began with Jim Kelly, the toughest quarterback in pro football. Kelly played the entire season with a bum shoulder that restricted his deep passes. So he got Levy to reinstate the Bills' no-huddle offense, threw short and resourcefully tossed for 3130 yards, 22 touchdowns and only 13 interceptions. And that was mostly without his top wide receiver, Andre Reed, who missed ten games with an injured hamstring.

Thurman Thomas, another veteran, rushed for 1005 yards, despite being sidelined early with banged-up legs.

Newly acquired linebacker Bryce Paup, the best free-agent pickup in the NFL last year, led the league in sacks (17 1/2). In the off-season, the Bills landed another stellar free agent when they signed Quinn Early, the Saints' leading receiver, to a four-year contract. Kelly, whose shoulder has healed, will also be passing to the Bills' top draft pick, Eric Moulds, a sensational wideout from Mississippi State.

How much lousier can they get? The Jets haven't produced a winner in seven years, and last season they finished with the worst record in the team's 36-year history. "If 3-13 doesn't create a sense of urgency, nothing does," says new head coach Rich Kotite.

He and his team will fare better this fall. New York may have landed the best free-agent catch of the year when it signed Pittsburgh QB Neil O'Donnell to a five-year $25 million contract. Jet fans--I think New York's media have made cynics of them all--haven't forgotten the two damaging interceptions O'Donnell threw against Dallas in the Super Bowl. Relax, people: You've got yourselves a first-rate quarterback. And he'll be passing to USC All-American Keyshawn Johnson, the first player chosen in the draft.

New York laid the foundation for getting O'Donnell by signing his offensive coordinator at Pittsburgh, Ron Erhardt. "The big key for Neil is that he's getting better every year," Erhardt says. Plus, he's getting help: During the off-season the Jets' push for free agents also landed superb Giants tackle Jumbo Elliott and Jeff Graham, the Bears' leading receiver.

Kotite's a fine coach, and this year, he'll be working with an improved club.

During last season, I almost suspected I was watching a pro football version of Hoosiers, in which a laughably bad team from Indianapolis suddenly starts believing in itself, astounds the rest of America and comes within a Hail Mary pass of making it to the Super Bowl.

Much of the credit for the Colts' run to the AFC title game belongs to general manager Bill Tobin, the former Bears GM who joined the team two years ago. Tobin was astute enough and persistent enough to talk Lindy Infante out of retirement and into becoming the Colts' offensive coordinator.

Coach Ted Marchibroda (in the Gene Hackman role) and the players took it from there. Jim Harbaugh, a cast-off quarterback, came off the bench to lead Indianapolis to a 9-7 season and two upset playoff wins that had fans shaking their heads in disbelief.

Harbaugh throws ugly, but he finished with 17 TD passes, five interceptions and the league's highest quarterback rating (100.7). He got a lot of help from Marshall Faulk, who led the Colts in rushing (1078 yards) and receiving (56 catches for 475 yards) before he was injured and missed the playoffs. The fact that the Colts won two playoff games without him was a story in itself.

A tenacious defense--sixth in the NFL against the run and seventh overall--made it possible for the Colts to win a string of nail-biters. Defensive end Tony Bennett was the unit's inspirational and sack leader with 10 1/2, and LB Quentin Coryatt was a pox on opposing ball carriers.

The defense will still be rugged, but Indy's Cinderella story is now over. For some lame reason (he always finds a way to screw up) team owner Robert Irsay refused to give Marchibroda a two-year extension, which is why the Colts' miracle worker is now head coach in Baltimore. Vince Tobin, architect of the defense, left to become head coach at Arizona. Even though Infante is Indy's new head coach, the Colts are about to go from the NFL's penthouse to its outhouse. It was fun while it lasted.

Last season head coach Bill Cowher marched his Steelers into the Super Bowl, almost won it, and then waited for the defections that inevitably result from a Super Bowl appearance. The key losses: QB Neil O'Donnell, who Jet-setted to New York with offensive coordinator Ron Erhardt and tight-end coach Pat Hodgson. Star OT Leon Searcy is now playing for Jacksonville, and LB Kevin Greene wound up in Carolina. Cowher, one of the brightest young coaches in the NFL, says: "Last year we lost a bunch of players to free agency and everyone came into the season doubting us. But we adjusted and we'll adjust this year."

Cowher's biggest adjustment will be to come up with a quarterback. He seems to have mighty slim pickings: rarely used Jim Miller, 11-year journeyman Mike Tomczak and throw-run-catch rarity Kordell Stewart, who spells excitement wherever he lines up. Look for Cowher to make more use of Stewart this season.

Whoever the quarterback is, he will pass to the league's most underrated quartet of receivers. Yancey Thigpen, Ernie Mills, Andre Hastings and Charlie Johnson are all fleet and formidable.

Pittsburgh pulled a draft-day surprise by trading for punishing ballcarrier Jerome Bettis, a former 1000-yard rusher for the Rams. He's the power back Pittsburgh needed.

The soul of the Steelers, their defense (third best in the league last year), returns intact and will actually be stronger: Last year All-Pro cornerback Rod Wood-son went down in the season opener and didn't return until the Super Bowl.

Again, the Steelers don't have a quarterback with proven pro credentials. That's probably why Cowher, my 1995 coach of the year, will win every coach of the year award this season when he leads the Steelers to another AFC Central title.

Team owner Bud Adams will soon receive the key to the city. Unfortunately for Oilers fans, that city is Nashville, Tennessee, where Adams will move the team within two years. The fans spent much of last season letting Adams know what they think of him.

Faced with home crowds that were frankly teed off, the Oilers--who were expected to be a rocky horror show--bloomed into the most-improved team in the NFL. Under head coach Jeff Fisher, the Oilers went from 2-14 to 7-9. And with just a few breaks, Houston would have made it into postseason play: Seven of the Oilers' nine losses were by a touchdown or less.

For the first time in many years, Houston almost came up with a legit offense. Quarterback Chris Chandler completed 63.2 percent of his passes (his best showing ever) and rookie wideout Chris Sanders led the NFL with a 23.5-yard average per reception. Rodney Thomas, another rookie, was the team's leading ground-gainer (947 yards). Another offensive weapon is about to be unveiled in the person of Ohio State RB (and Heisman Trophy winner) Eddie George. The Oilers' offense was 23rd in the league last year. It still sucks, but their fifth-ranked defense will again keep the team competitive in almost every game.

Houston crowds like their team and abhor Adams. The booing in the Astrodome this fall will be accompanied by some creative homemade signs.

It's no fun when your first-round draft choice--especially an All-American half-back you're counting on to run like a thoroughbred--breaks down before he's even out of the starting gate. Who knows what the Bengals would have done last year if powerful Penn State RB Ki-Jana Carter hadn't suffered a season-long injury in the next-to-last preseason game? As things turned out, Cincinnati (7-9) showed marked improvement in David Shula's fourth year as head coach. Think the Bengals would have lost five games by three points if Carter had been carrying the ball? I think not.

Shula, who was 11-37 during his previous three years at the helm of the Bengals, has brought them into the realm of respectability. He'll never be the coach his father was, but Shula is beginning to impress a lot of NFL insiders.

His Bengals have a young, explosive offense that--without Carter--was strictly one-dimensional last year. Cannon-armed passer Jeff Blake, 25, threw for 3822 yards and 28 touchdowns. Blake, who scrambled for 309 yards, will get some sorely-needed protection from OT Willie Anderson (Auburn), the Bengals' number one draft choice.

Expect a season of fireworks from a trio of the best young receivers in the AFC. Carl Pickens, 25, hauled in 99 receptions for 17 TDs (tops in the AFC in both categories) and was a starter in the Pro Bowl. WR Darnay Scott, 23, caught 52 passes, and 24-year-old tight end Tony McGee snared 55. In NFL terms, these Bengals are still kits. Wait until they grow up to be tigers.

But that solves only half of Cincinnati's problems. In 1995, Cincy's overall defense ranked last in the league despite nine sacks by end John Copeland and eight by tackle Dan Wilkinson. Carter will make the Bengals more exciting.

The Browns--oops, the Ravens--have brought the NFL back to Baltimore. The city's football fans, many of them familiar with the works of Edgar Allan Poe, supplied the team with its new name. And so owner Art Modell's dirty deed is complete. Let the games (and the merchandising) begin.

Modell arrives in Baltimore with a ball club that last year was favored to win the divisional title but wound up finishing 5-11. Starting the week after Modell announced the move from Cleveland, the Browns lost six of their final seven games. At that point Modell fired head coach Bill Belichick. A few months later, Modell got lucky and was able to replace Belichick with Ted Marchibroda, who took the Colts to the AFC title game.

Marchibroda has a lot of work ahead of him. He has a decent quarterback in Vinny Testaverde, the AFC's third-ranked passer last year. The Ravens need a major contribution from WR Andre Rison, a free-agent flop in 1995. They also must upgrade a running game that was almost nonexistent last year. In the first round of the college draft, Baltimore chose UCLA offensive tackle Jonathan Ogden, the Outland Trophy winner, as the nation's best collegiate lineman. Modell foolishly passed on Nebraska RB Lawrence Phillips. Hey, Art: Running backs score TDs. Offensive linemen don't.

On defense, the Browns couldn't stop their own bloody noses from running last year, and weren't much better against the pass. Marchibroda almost has to start from scratch.

Poe's Raven was fond of saying "Nevermore." The Baltimore flock will seem that hopeless by the end of the season. But give Marchibroda a few years and he'll get these birds flying right.

The Jaguars won four games during their highly successful inaugural season. Despite his team's commendable debut, Jacksonville head coach Tom Coughlin was somewhat disappointed. "I definitely thought we'd win a little more than we did," he says.

Even so, Coughlin was impressed by the play of rookie OTs Tony Boselli and Brian DeMarco, and rookie LB Bryan Schwartz. He definitely liked what he saw of Mark Brunell, the third-year quarterback acquired from Green Bay. Brunell, who clicked on 58.1 percent of his passes, threw for 15 TDs and had only seven picked off. The Jags are in dire need of wide receivers, and picked up four of them in the lower rounds of the college draft. Coughlin filled two gaping offensive holes by signing San Diego RB Natrone Means and Pittsburgh tackle Leon Searcy.

Jacksonville's 21st-ranked defense lacked a pass rush, a couple of linemen and an outside linebacker who could pressure opposing passers. The Jaguars used their first two draft picks on Illinois LB Kevin Hardy and Texas DE Tony Brackens. They could end up 8-8.

•

Something strange happened to the Raiders after they left Los Angeles and returned to Oakland. Owner Al Davis' swashbucklers reached the shank of last season with an 8-2 record, and appeared to be a cinch to make the playoffs. But Oakland lost its last six games (four of them at home, where the Raiders always enjoyed an edge in their glory days). The team's staunch and strident fans showed up, which is more than can be said for the Raiders.

"Some of the players on this team have to look in the mirror," says Pro Bowl WR Tim Brown, who last year racked up 89 receptions, 1342 yards and ten touchdowns. The Raiders also wasted an 1114-yard season by RB Harvey Williams, who averaged 4.4 yards a carry.

Oakland's collapse can be attributed to an injury QB Jeff Hostetler sustained in his left shoulder. He tried to play through the pain but couldn't and wound up throwing only 286 passes (for 172 completions, 1998 yards and 12 touchdowns). Hostetler is sound again, and this season his receivers will include Rickey Dudley, the Ohio State tight end who was Oakland's number one draft choice.

Oakland definitely strengthened its defense by signing two free agents from Dallas, tackle Russell Maryland and CB Larry Brown. The Raiders' defense, 11th best in the league last year, will again be led by Pro Bowl tackle Chester McGlockton and end Pat Swilling, who had 13 sacks in 1995. On defense and offense, the Raiders look like big winners.

"This is a collection of talent, but it's not a team," says cornerback Albert Lewis. The Raiders will become one--and will win the West--if Davis gets more involved.

In 1995, the Seahawks rallied to win six of their last eight games and finished 8-8. For the first time in its history, Seattle produced four 1000-yard performers: WRs Joey Galloway (1039) and Brian Blades (1001); kick returner Steve Broussard (1064) and RB Chris Warren (1346). Warren, who turned in his fourth consecutive 1000-yard year, set Seahawk records for most TDs (16) and 100-yard games (eight) in a season.

New head coach Dennis Erickson's biggest disappointment was QB Rick Mirer, who threw an AFC-high 20 interceptions and was sacked 42 times. With the addition of Boston College OT Pete Kendall, Mirer may not have to run for his life this fall.

"I'm really encouraged about this year," says Erickson. He has reason to be, especially if his defensive unit--25th in the league last year--starts to hang tough.

The Chargers reached the Super Bowl in 1995. Last fall they made it into the playoffs despite injuries so widespread and severe that it sometimes seemed as if head coach Bobby Ross had benched all his starters. Ross' irregulars managed to close the 9-7 season with a five-game winning streak. "It was a struggle for us in just about every game," says Ross.

He's right. QB Stan Humphries had an injury-plagued season but still managed to fire 19 touchdown passes. Natrone Means, another battered star, remained the team's leading ball carrier (730 yards). Means became a free agent after the season and signed with Jacksonville. His replacement, Aaron Hayden, averaged 96.8 yards during the four games he started. WR Tony Martin stayed healthy and caught 90 passes for 1224 yards.

San Diego wasn't so dominant defensively as it had been during its Super Bowl year. Linebacker Junior Seau again led the team in tackles (129), but the Chargers need all the reinforcements Ross can muster. That's especially true now that Leslie O'Neal (12 1/2 sacks last year) has found greener pastures in St. Louis.

Where does that leave San Diego? Even the wise guys will tell you: Never count out the Two Bobbys--Ross and GM Bobby Beathard.

The Chiefs are an enigma. They set a franchise record for most wins in a season, controlled their games with the NFL's best rushing attack, were number one in the NFL in scoring defense and had the league's best turnover ratio (12 more take-aways than giveaways). Yet they still fell flat on their faces against the Colts in the divisional playoffs. Kansas City is the only team to have made the playoffs in every year of the Nineties. And what has that accomplishment gotten them? Zilch.

In 1995, Kansas City and the rest of America found out that Steve Bono is no Joe Montana. He played like the career backup he had been, and finished as the NFL's 20th-ranked passer. But Marcus Allen, at age 35, had no problem scooting for 890 yards.

Led by DE Neil Smith's 12 sacks, KC had the league's second-best defense. The Chiefs figure to stay hungry in that department: Their first four draft picks were all defensive players.

"When you go 13-3 and lose your first game in the playoffs, it feels like being 3-13," DB Mark Collins lamented. No need to worry, Mark. The Chiefs won't come close to going 13-3 again.

Last season in Denver seemed like a tale of two cities: It was the best of times and the worst of times for the Broncos.

New head coach Mike Shanahan, lured away from his job as the 49ers' offensive coordinator, provided the pyrotechnical touch Denver fans hoped for. The Broncos' new West Coast offense set team records for most yards gained in a season (6040), most TD passes (John Elway threw 26) and fewest sacks allowed since the strike-shortened 1982 season (26). Wide receiver Anthony Miller tied the team single-season record of 14 TD receptions, and Terrell Davis was the Broncos' first 1000-yard rusher since 1991. And, for the first time since the 1986 campaign, Denver sent six players to the Pro Bowl.

So why did Denver finish 8-8 and out of the playoffs? Feeble defense, especially against the run. And not much of a pass rush, either. Michael Dean Perry, though slowed by injuries, led the team in sacks--with only six.

Shanahan has six years left on his contract to turn things around in Denver. He'll need every one of them.

Playboy's Picks

American football conference

Eastern Division....Dolphins

Cenral Division...Steelers

Western Division...Raiders

Wild cards...bills, Patriots, Seahawks

AFC champion...Steelers over Raiders

National Football Conference

Eastern Division...Cowboys

Central Division...Packers

Western Division...49ers

Wild Cards...Falcons, Bears, Eagles

NFC Champion...49ers over Cowboys

Super Bowl

49ers over Steelers

National Football Conference

Eastern Division

*Wild-card team

No one's nose was bent out of shape. These are the 49ers, who pride themselves on their cool.

National Football Conference Central Division

*Wild-card team

National Football Conference

Western Division

*Wild-card team

American Football Conference

Eastern Division

*Wild-card teams

American Football Conference

Central Division

A

American Football Conference

Western Division

A

* Wild-card team

The NFL Owners: Were You Naughty or Nice?

The Six Best

Al Davis, Oakland: Ex-AFL commissioner has great rapport with Players Association and is on standby for any labor crisis.

Ed DeBartolo, San Francisco: Took over a franchise in chaos in 1977. In the past 14 years has won an incredible five Super Bowls. Total commitment to winning and to doing it in a classy way.

Wayne Huizenga, Miami: Listened to Dolphin fans when he "retired" Don Shula--and hired Jimmy Johnson. He's the Blockbuster of owners with hockey and baseball franchises too.

Jerry Jones, Dallas: Some critics scoffed when he brought in college coaches Jimmy Johnson and Barry Switzer, both of whom won Super Bowls. A marketing genius who has awakened many complacent Stone Age owners.

Robert Kraft, New England: In only his third year in the NFL, brought relief to long-suffering Patriots fans with a dedicated family management team. Best-dressed owner in the NFL.

Jerry Richardson, Carolina: Shows what a smart owner can mean to the success of an expansion team. With an astute management team, Carolina produced an NFL-record seven wins in its inaugural season.

The Six Worst

Bud Adams, Houston: Considering the abuse to which Adams has subjected his players and fans, it's a wonder they show up on Sundays. Credit Adams with having enough sense to be born rich.

Ken Behring, Seattle: Another franchise home-wrecker. Doesn't hide his feelings about moving the Seahawks to Los Angeles, his hometown. If Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen buys the team, the Seahawks will stay put and Behring will be out of the league. Good for the NFL.

Bill Bidwill, Arizona: Since leaving St. Louis in 1988, this know-nothing owner has created his own desert storm in Phoenix. During eight years in Arizona, has gone through five head coaches and 12 different starting quarterbacks.

William Ford, Detroit: Gets his jollies every year by threatening to fire respected head coach Wayne Fontes, who always manages to get the Lions into the playoffs. Ford should stick to building cars.

Georgia Frontiere, St. Louis: Created an embarrassing spectacle at the 1996 draft by taking over the Rams' telephones. Should stay home, answer her own phone and play the piano, which would make her fellow owners very happy.

Art Modell, Baltimore: Carried out the most egregious hijacking of a sports team from the city that nurtured it since the Dodgers left Brooklyn for Los Angeles four decades ago. The Browns will be more popular than ever when they're reborn in 1999 in Cleveland.