Playboy's 1998 Baseball Preview

Bobby Cox looked like he had smelled something foul. His Atlanta Braves had lost again, their fifth October fold in seven years, and manager Cox knew why. It's "a crapshoot," he said of the postmodern postseason, three rounds of playoffs in which anything can happen. It happened again last fall. The Braves had trounced the second-place Florida Marlins in the National League East on their way to a 101-61 record, best in the game. But by finishing 92-70 Florida made the playoffs as a wild-card team. That meant a weeklong rematch in which Atlanta outpitched, outscored and outhit (.253 to .199) the Marlins -- and still lost.

"The best team didn't win," bitched Atlanta's Kenny Lofton. He was right, but who cared? We all watched the second-best team advance to face the Cleveland Indians, who had sneaked past a superior Baltimore team on their side of the playoffs, in a grand World Series that went down to the last quarter inch.

Title-starved Cleveland, which has not won it all in 50 years, had it made in the ninth inning of the seventh game. The Indians' 6'3", 230-pound closer, Jose Mesa, had the whole World Series in his hand. Mesa rocked and launched a pitch that could have ended the festivities. A slider in the right place--outside edge--but with a fatal split second of hang time. On any given day Florida's pull-happy young catcher Charles Johnson taps that pitch to an infielder. Now, in the most important at bat of his or anyone's life, Johnson made like Tony Gwynn. He slapped a single over second base. A quarter of an inch lower and the ball is an out. The Series went into overtime and, in the eleventh inning, the Indians' Tony Fernandez showed why Cleveland is cursed. Fernandez bent over for a routine grounder and Bucknered it. Soon it was fireworks over Miami: a blockbuster night for Marlins owner Wayne Huizenga, who hugged everyone and wept at this tearjerker ending. Huizenga was so moved that he quickly decided, once and for all, to dismantle the team and sell it. Which gives us our only sure bet for 1998: The world champions suck.

With the gutted Marlins stinking up the NL East, Atlanta might win by 25 games. In the American playoff tier Cleveland will repeat in the Central Division. Lofton is the Indians' center fielder again, while ex-Braves star Marquis Grissom jumps from Cleveland to the Milwaukee Brewers, who are jumping to the National League. So, naturally, the Detroit Tigers will jump from the AL East to the AL Central, making room for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Got that? Good, because further expansion and radical realignment are on the way. The more things change in modern baseball, the more they change more.

Fans and pundits like to say the game is in trouble. If so, at least the players are ready to rumble. Many ballplayers make a fetish of pumping iron and guzzling creatine, a nutritional supplement that helps athletes train harder and develop that Mr. Olympia look we are starting to see on shortstops. Ken Caminiti bulked up and went from 18 homers and 75 RBI in 1994 to 40 homers, 130 RBI and an MVP award in 1996. Brady Anderson had a career high of 21 homers before 1996, when he hit 50. Mark McGwire, the game's strongest player, is another creatine man.

The pump has a price, however. Today's baseball musclemen are so taut they can go pop at the least provocation. They tend to get hurt more, a factor that decides more than its share of division races and playoff series.

Expansion is another engine of change. After Tampa and Phoenix launch this year, two more teams are likely to be created by 2002. That means 40 to 50 big-league pitchers who might feel more at home in Shreveport or Osceola. It means a dilution of pitching throughout the game. Free-swinging sluggers feast in such times. The clubs' recent move toward small, hitter-friendly ballparks is another plus for musclemen like McGwire, Jeff Bagwell and Andres Galarraga, the whiffmaster who is first in the NL in strikeouts--and first in homers and runs batted in--since 1995. Sometimes the inflated homer and RBI totals of such pitch-poor times are misleading. The Cubs' Sammy Sosa (who is second in the NL in Ks since 1995) may bat only .251 with a scary 174 strikeouts, killing countless rallies, but he also hits 36 homers. Sosa got his numbers, so he gets $10 million per year.

The new emphasis on stats shows another change: Real baseball is getting to be more like a fantasy league. Every trade, every free-agent signing, every transaction is driven by a calculus of salary and stats. Contract negotiation, renegotiation, arbitration--they are all about the numbers in each player's stat line. Nobody shows a videotape of anyone bunting the runner over when agents meet with general managers over arbitration. Nobody gets an extra million for hitting the cutoff man. Only statistics count at money time. Which leads to a pet peeve of mine: A batter starts off the ninth inning with his team trailing by four runs and swings at the first pitch.

I actually boo the TV when that happens. It is all about one guy trying to get his numbers, his money, and the hell with the game.

Otherwise the wrinkled old national pastime is doing fine. There is tasty debate over Mike Piazza, the best-hitting catcher of all time, and a pair of his rivals for the number two slot on the Cooperstown All-Stars. Would you rather have Piazza or Florida's Charles Johnson, who at 26 is already the finest defensive catcher ever? Most scouts would trump them both with the Rangers' Ivan Rodriguez, also 26, a better all-round catcher than either Piazza or Johnson.

Another plus: We are entering a sort of golden age of player quotes. While many ballplayers still put their faith in clichés, telling you they give 110 percent and praise the Lord, more and more players are media savvy and often intentionally funny. When pitcher Al Leiter limped off the field he told reporters, "My groin has no comment."

Lefty Kent Mercker left an itemized note to reporters on his locker after a loss to the Mets: "(1) Bad location with fastball. (2) Fell behind too many hitters. (3) Stunk. (4) Stunk. (5) Stunk again."

When Cubs pitcher Jeremi Gonzalez threw a fastball at Jeff Kent's chin, Kent, the Giants' muy macho infielder, jumped up and began jawing at Gonzalez. Cubs catcher Tyler Houston, defending his pitcher's manhood, went after Kent. Both benches emptied and now there were 50 grown men wrestling, kicking and biting. Shrugged Kent: "Just male bonding."

As this nut-scratching ballet lurches toward its third century, Atlanta is probably still the best team. The Braves are talented enough to contend every year and rich enough to spend the $5 million or $6 million it costs to rent a key player when the pennant race heats up. Atlanta has every right to appear in this year's World Series.

Naturally, I'm picking the Yankees.

American League East

The Yankees aren't exactly rebuilding, not with Darryl Strawberry and Tim Raines still rattling around Babe Ruth's old house with sore-armed David Cone and manager Joe Torre, whose worry lines are now a foot deep. Strawberry is 36, Rock of Ages Raines is 38, Cone 35, and Torre looks 100. In an off-season move to rejuvenate the DH slot, New York signed 38-year-old Chili Davis.

The Yanks aren't exactly fitness freaks, either. While other big leaguers pump iron, Yankees hurlers David Wells and Hideki Irabu waddle to the mound. Fans hang a picture of a cold beer from the stands when Wells strikes out somebody. Irabu, the ballyhooed Japanese League ace who was supposed to be better than Hideo Nomo, was a case of no mas instead--he got hammered and seemed to quit trying.

So why pick New York to win a fierce division, then beat Atlanta in a rematch of the 1996 Series? Because owner George Steinbrenner's and former general manager Bob Watson's decisions won't all backfire. Even their questionable moves have an upside. Strawberry and Raines may be a pair of weak full-time outfielders, but shove them together and you get one good one. The portly Wells is worth two six-packs of strikeouts on a good night, while aging DH Davis can only be better (and far less pricey) than Cecil Fielder, the bad-year blimp who made $9 million for his 13 homers. Even the Irabu debacle may turn out to be a prelude to years of excellence by an accomplished pitcher who can only improve.

Irabu can provide ballast for a rotation headed by ace Andy Pettitte. Starters Doc Gooden and Kenny Rogers are gone. That's addition by subtraction; Yankees pitchers will now lead the league in ERA. First baseman Tino Martinez, shortstop Derek Jeter, outfielders Bernie Williams and Paul O'Neill and DH Davis anchor a division-best offense that got even better when Steinbrenner acquired all-star second baseman Chuck Knoblauch. And the Boss acquired Knoblauch without giving up hotshot minor leaguer Ricky Ledee. Ledee was hurt last year--blew out his groin in May--but he may grow into a .300-30-100 man in the majors.

If all goes well for the Yanks, or even if most of their personnel moves turn out decently, they can reclaim the World Series crown that Florida borrowed last year. I see Steinbrenner's team beating America's team in October--another heartbreaking loss for Atlanta. This year's lasting image won't be the Braves fans' tomahawk chops or those noxious "We're #1" foam-rubber index fingers Atlanta fans wave. Instead, we'll see the New York version of "We're #1," a salute with a different finger.

Orioles owner Peter Angelos didn't like Davey Johnson. Angelos, a wealthy local gargoyle, forced Johnson out after back-to-back playoff appearances and hired Ray Miller, former pitching coach for Jim Leyland's championship Pittsburgh teams. Miller takes over a veteran team. A very veteran team. In fact, the Baltimore lineup (starring 37-year-old ironman Cal Ripken as he stretches out his million-game march and slowly turns to pewter, plus 1993 World Series hero Joe Carter and cancer survivor Eric Davis) is so old that fans are calling the stadium Jurassic Park at Camden Yards. Angelos thinks this is the club that will finally bring home the hardware in October. But replacing Davey Johnson with a new manager is an odd way to helm one of the oldest teams in recent history. Baltimore's Mike Mussina--led pitching staff will suffer from the departure of closer Randy Myers and can only slip from its league-best status of last year. Oriole's fans can't wait for a season that may be only the first in a long string of disappointments.

Ex-Oriole Myers flew the coop and landed in Toronto, where he'll save 40 games for Roger Clemens and the Blue Jays. Without Joe Carter, the once-proud Jays may sputter with an offense that struggled even with Carter aboard. New catcher Darrin Fletcher (17 homers for Montreal in 1997) and veteran Mike Stanley need even more help than sophomore slugger Jose Cruz Jr. can provide. Cruz, stolen from Seattle when Mariners GM Woody Woodward panicked at the trading deadline last year, had 26 homers in a partial season at the tender age of 23. The Jays still finished last in the East. In games not started by Clemens they played .414 ball. Clemens and Pat Hentgen head a strong rotation, though, and Myers won't blow 21 leads, as Toronto relievers did last season. Look for rookie manager Tim Johnson's men to finish a distant third.

Toronto will end up a game or two ahead of the Red Sox in the first year of Dan Duquette's great experiment, the Boston K party. A year ago the general manager let local god Clemens walk rather than pay him $50 million, only to see the Rocket sign with division rival Toronto, earn a standing O on his return to Fenway Park and win 21 games with a 2.05 ERA and a Cy Young award for the Jays. Now Duquette signs 26-year-old Pedro Martinez to a $75 million contract--the biggest bucks ever for a pitcher--in hopes that he'll be the next Clemens. It's a huge risk. Martinez has magical stuff but has had only one big year so far. Boston's rickety bullpen is another risk. Starter Tom Gordon shifted to the pen last summer and became an effective closer; Duquette rewards him by signing ancient closer Dennis Eckersley, probably reducing Gordon to a setup role. First sacker Mo Vaughn, who hit 35 homers last year while griping aloud about the GM, leads an overrated offense that hit fewer homers than the miserable Oakland A's in 1997. Vaughn is worth his weight--roughly 535,000 troy ounces--in gold. Rookie of the Year shortstop Nomar Garciaparra (.306, 30 homers, 98 RBI, first name the reverse of his dad's), coming off one of the hardest-hitting seasons ever by a leadoff man, will be worth far more than Vaughn in the long run. But GM Duquette, seeking to prove his own worth, keeps risking the Sox' ruination.

Unlike those other Florida fish, Tampa Bay's Devil Rays won't shock the world any time soon. Like their name-sakes, they will be bottom feeders. The Rays can throw familiar faces--such as Fred McGriff and Wade Boggs--at you. But Wilson Alvarez and Roberto Hernandez, the erstwhile Killer Zs of the Chicago White Sox, must now toil for a team that will put fans to sleep. By the time Tampa Bay has any important games to save, Hernandez may be older than Boston closer Eckersley.

American League Central

The Indians were an eighth of an inch from the promised land--that was the distance on Charles Johnson's bat between a Series-ending double play and the single over Tony Fernandez' head that Johnson hit instead, giving Fernandez a chance to play goat half an hour later. Cleveland still has only heartbreak to show for its brilliant seasons of the past three years. General manager John Hart laid the ground work for this renaissance ten years ago, signing his young stars to long-term contracts. Fans responded to the club's marketing, which emphasized the excitement of building for the future. Next came a new stadium. Jacobs Field, a sterling example of the new retro school of ballpark design executed with Disneyesque precision, is a perfect postmodern ballpark--a cross between Ebbets Field and a mall. By 1996, only five years after the Indians went 57--105, they were the hottest ticket in town. Every game was sold out before Opening Day.

Two years later you still can't get a ticket, but Indians fans don't sound too bullish. Hart's plan worked--the club's young stars matured together and became the league's best team--but, like hapless Atlanta, the Indians kept losing in the postseason. Hart's rebuilding program is now widely copied by other rebuilding clubs. Still, there's something missing in the Jacobs Field office of the game's smartest GM: a World Series trophy.

With Lofton back in center after his tumultuous sabbatical with the Braves, Hart and manager Mike Hargrove have their most important player in place. Matt Williams is gone, but ex-Tiger Travis Fryman should hit 25 homers. Cleveland discovered lion-hearted starter Jaret Wright in 1997; Hart has added oft-injured Ben McDonald, Steve Karsay, Doc Gooden and other intriguing possibilities to a staff that features the fierce one-two punch of Mike Jackson and Jose Mesa in the bullpen. Add Geronimo Berroa and another role player or two, plus a big-name pitcher Hart will rent for the 1998 pennant drive, and you can plan to pay scalpers' rates if you want to see (continued on page 128) Basphall (continued from page 124) the Indians win again this September. Before they lose in October.

Frank Thomas, Albert Belle and Robin Ventura make the White Sox the AL Central team everyone else fears. You can't beat Chicago without sneaking through that minefield. Fortunately for the rest of the league, owner Jerry Reinsdorf stripped the Sox' roster of almost everything but murderers' row. Even in 1997 with the gimpy Ventura hitting only six homers, those three players accounted for nearly half of Chicago's total of 158. Reinsdorf capitulated last summer, trading most of the club's best pitchers because, he said, "Anyone who thinks we can catch Cleveland is crazy." At the time they were three and a half games behind.

This season will prove again that Reinsdorf was right. After dumping his assets and dumping them cheap, the owner has assured White Sox fans a decade of mediocrity.

The rest of the Central is shooting for .500. Take the Twins--please. In a 68--94 season Minnesota batted a passable .270 but hit only 132 homers, the worst in the league. Twins pitching was still worse--an ERA of precisely 5.00. Their best player, second baseman Chuck Knoblauch, is now gone. The club was in dire need of a youth movement, so what happens? General manager Terry Ryan signs elderly singles machine Paul Molitor, plus free agents Otis Nixon, 39, and Mike Morgan, 38. Starter Brad Radke, who went 20-10 in a breakthrough 1997 season, joins Morgan, soft-tossing control freak Bob Tewksbury (two batters walked since Little League) and a rookie or two in the Twins' rotation. Infielder Todd Walker takes over as Knoblauch's replacement at second base. Meanwhile owner Carl Pohlad, spurned by local voters and legislators who refuse to build him a new stadium, threatens to sell the team and let it skip town. "Play ball or I'll let the Twins become the Charlotte/Greensboro/Winston-Salem Triplets," threatens Pohlad. To which many fans reply, "See ya."

Detroit's Tigers improved by 26 games in 1997, from 53--109 to 79--83. They edged out the Sox and the Jays to finish third in the AL East, slicing almost two runs from the team ERA. Scarily strong 6'7" first baseman Tony Clark smacked 32 homers, plated 117 runs and batted .276, adding 26 points to his 1996 batting average. Clark also lifted his strikeouts from 127 to a whiffmasterly 144. At 25 Clark is only getting better. Center fielder Brian Hunter became the first Tiger since Ty Cobb to lead the majors in steals. Outfielder Bobby Higginson deserves a few million All-Star votes, too. Twenty-two-year-old Deivi Cruz is a human vacuum at shortstop, and veterans Bip Roberts, Luis Gonzalez and Joe Randa don't suck. Still, with manager Buddy Bell's pitching staff due for a fall, the Tigers are likely to slip backward before reaching the .500 mark in 1999 or 2000.

Royals closer Jeff Montgomery recovered from a bum shoulder and a rocky first half to notch his 256th career save last fall. A Kansas City rotation featuring Kevin Appier's stellar stuff (103 wins in eight years--all with sub-4.00 ERAs) and the sneaky junk of Tim Belcher, who managed a 13-12 record with a gruesome 5.02 ERA, is worth rooting for. Ditto first baseman Jeff King, who managed 28 homers and 112 RBI while batting only .238. Third baseman Dean Palmer (23 homers, 86 RBI with KC and Texas) has reupped. Beyond that the Royals, who ran last in the AL Central last year, show few signs of life. Outfielder Johnny Damon, once compared to George Brett, now looks more like Tom Poquette. Prospects Felix Martinez, Jeremy Giambi and Rod Myers all arrive with question marks attached. Expect another year of Royal pain.

American League West

Nobody in his right mind could pick against Seattle in the West. But I am left-brained and see the logic in Rangers general manager Doug Melvin's moves. In midsummer 1997, when he saw Ken Griffey Jr. & Co. move ten games ahead, Melvin started planning for 1998. It was a classic fantasy league move: bail and lurk. While Seattle surged ahead toward another postseason defeat, Melvin shuffled his roster. He added a role player here and a cheap spare part there to complement the Texas nucleus of mighty Juan Gonzalez, catcher Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez and closer John Wetteland. Texas' skilled if unthrilling rotation features Darren Oliver (13-12, 4.20 ERA), John Burkett (9--12, 4.56) and Aaron Sele (13:12 for Boston). Their motto: "Competent innings." Bobby Witt, Rick Helling, Roger Pavlik and rookie Matt Perisho add pitching depth. The Texas attack, which dipped to 4.9 runs per game in 1997, should rebound. Shortstop Kevin Elster came from nowhere--a nine-year average of four homers per year--to swat 24 for the Rangers two years ago, then spent an injured year in Pittsburgh. Elster returns to a lineup that teams Gonzalez' 42-homer power and the fast-maturing genius of Pudge Rodriguez, who keeps improving. Since 1992 he has batted .260, .273, .298, .303, .300 and .313. Last year the league's best catcher hit 20 homers for the first time. He is only 26. Texas also has Will Clark at first base, outfielder Rusty Greer and reclamation project Lee Stevens as designated hitter. Longtime prospect Stevens had hit only 17 homers in four years of trying, then hit 21 when manager Johnny Oates gave him a full-time shot. Center fielder Tom Goodwin, another of Melvin's acquisitions, returns to zoom around the bases to the tune of 90-plus runs and 50 steals. Roberto Kelly and Luis Alicea give Oates options off the bench. After playing possum last fall, the Rangers are ready to pounce.

Lou Piniella's Mariners are starting to look like the Atlanta Braves. They have the best pitcher and the most famous guys but fall flat in October. Last season Ken Griffey Jr. staked his claim to be the game's best player, batting .304 with 56 homers and 147 RBI. He won his usual Gold Glove. Randy Johnson won 20 games with a 2.28 ERA and almost 300 strikeouts. Edgar Martinez made a run at the batting title, Jay Buhner hit 40 homers, manager Piniella popped 20 to 30 blood vessels and Seattle won the AL West as usual. Result: another playoff loss. With Johnson reportedly on offer as trade bait, Seattle's divisional hegemony is in peril. Like Cleveland, Atlanta, Baltimore and other teams whose time has come and gone, the Mariners of the Griffey--Johnson era may get worse before they get back to the playoffs. General manager Woodward's 1997 trade of Jose Cruz Jr. for a pair of jockstraps may become the Cruz Curse, a death knell like the Babe Ruth sale of 1920 that sentenced Boston to eternal damnation.

The Disneyland Angels will soon win this division every year. For the Disney Co.'s baseball flagship, the jewel of the Anaheim baseball experience, nothing less than success will suffice. Their old football-friendly, earthquake-fissured stadium has been morphed into a retro-modern baseball mall where slugger Tim Salmon, phenom Darin Erstad and closer Troy Percival can shine for years. General manager Bill (continued on page 156) Baseball (continued from page 128) Bavasi has seen fit to sign sperm whale Cecil Fielder to replace crack infielder Tony Phillips at DH, exchanging speed for obesity. Will it work? Only if Angels pitchers learn to doctor the ball with flubber.

Last in pitching, last in attendance, last in the AL West, the once-proud Athletics may actually be worse than they looked a year ago. With Mark McGwire long gone, Oakland spent much of the off-season pursuing Rickey Henderson, another golden-age A who is five years older than McGwire. Outfielder Matt Stairs clouted 27 homers in 1997 to more than double his career total, but Stairs is 30 years old. Jason Giambi (.293, 20 homers, 81 RBI), underrated infielder Kurt Abbott and signee Mike Blowers can help. Still, a rotation that made for only 29 wins and two complete games will get little help from the intermittent stuff of starters Kenny Rogers and Tom Candiotti. Like Atlanta in recent years, Oakland dominated the game a decade ago but went home disappointed every year but one.

National League East

If not for the postmodern postseason we might be calling the Braves the best team ever. Five World Series titles! They had the deepest starting pitching since the old Palmer-McNally-Cuellar Orioles. It was Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Neagle and pray for a bagel. Denny Neagle, their number four starter, finished third in voting for the Cy Young award. But Atlanta seems cursed.

The Braves' decade opened with Atlanta's Lonnie Smith freezing on the bases to help give Minnesota the 1991 World Series. In that great Series, four out of seven games were decided on the final pitch. Smith died at third in the last game, starting the Braves on their strange road to last fall's playoff loss to the wild-card Marlins.

The Braves did manage a 1995 Series win over the even more snakebit Indians. Still, nobody compares the Braves to the 1927 Yankees. Instead, they are likened to the early-Nineties Buffalo Bills, and they are touchy about it. Pitcher John Smoltz sounded off about the "loser label" in the losers' dugout last fall: Isn't it better, he asked, to be good every year and win one World Series than to win a couple Series and stink the rest of the time?

Well, no. As Smoltz and manager Bobby Cox keep learning, a decade of excellence isn't good enough. In fact, Atlanta must win this year. If the Braves turn pumpkin in October again, they will officially become baseball's Buffalo Bills, the winningest losers of all.

Disenchanted with fading first baseman Fred McGriff and shortstop Jeff Blauser, GM John Schuerholz signed ex-Rockies Andres Galarraga, el Gato Grande, to play first and ex-Rockie Walt Weiss to play short. Galarraga has led the league in RBI the past two years and hit 88 homers to McGriff's 50. Yet he may turn out to be nothing but a pricier McGriff whose stats were inflated by Colorado's thin air. Weiss lacks Blauser's bat, but Cox can count on maturing stars Javy Lopez, Ryan Klesko and Andruw Jones to take up any bat-rack slack. Meanwhile, Atlanta's pitching is among the best the game has ever seen. Greg Maddux' 19-4, 2.20 ERA performance in 1997, in which he struck out 177 men while walking 20, moved him near to the head of the class among pitchers in the game's 130-year history. Tom Glavine and Smoltz are merely the league's best number two and number three starters. Fourth starter Neagle won 20 games. Closer Mark Wohlers, who fights his fear of flying on every team trip, gives hitters high anxiety with 100-mph fastballs.

The Braves may be baseball's best team, but I see them losing again this autumn--perhaps to a seventh-game pinch homer by Darryl Strawberry. They have pitching, hitting and defense, but no karma.

At least Atlanta gets a free pass to the playoffs. No other team in the East looks capable of winning 80 games. The Mets signed Japanese hurler Masato Yoshii to fill a rotation spot behind Al Leiter, Bobby Jones and Rick Reed. Two years ago this was the team of great young arms. Bill Pulsipher, Jason Isringhausen and Paul Wilson were the young guns who could make fans forget Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz. But all three phenoms blew out their arms. Another big hurt came when Alex Ochoa hit more like Dylan Thomas than Frank Thomas, and Carl Everett, another sizzling prospect, flamed out. The Mets have actually done a superb job of surviving such torpedo shots. They aren't about to catch Atlanta this season, but by 1999 they may challenge for a wild-card slot in the postseason party.

Last spring the Marlins signed over their future to Gary Sheffield. General manager Dave Dombrowski, the best in the biz, inked moody outfielder Sheffield to a long-term contract for $10 million--plus per year. Sheffield responded with a superb impression of Jeff Blauser--21 homers, 71 RBI. Florida won the big enchilada anyway, with starter Li-van Hernandez sending his native Cuba into orbit while shortstop Edgar Renteria, who delivered the winning hit, became Colombia's greatest star. Florida's salsa y plaintain year suggested the international flavor of baseball in the next century. Florida's roster and the Dodgers' United Nations rotation presage an era in which every shoeless Joe from Hannibal, Mo. will have teammates from Caracas and Tokyo. Unfortunately for Marlins fans, owner Huizenga decided to get out while he was ahead, cutting costs in order to sell the team cheap. Kevin Brown, Moises Alou and everyone else was trade bait. The proud Marlins were chum for hungry NL competitors. Young outfielders Mark Kotsay and Todd Dunwoody and new closer Jay Powell are underpriced--the only factor that matters in the Marlins' front office anymore--but the rest of this club looks like a farm team for the dearly departed, long-lamented 1997 champions.

Expos supersub F.P. Santangelo put it best: "This team is like high school. You know the seniors won't be back next year." Small-market Montreal made a habit of dumping its best players: Randy Johnson, Larry Walker, Andres Galarraga, John Wetteland, Marquis Grissom. Every year the list lengthens. Every year Felipe Alou somehow keeps his club respectable, but the cracks in the foundation are starting to show. Last year Montreal finished 78--84, not bad considering the roster Alou had to work with, but still ten games behind the mediocre Mets. Ten games' worth of improvement might be possible with fireballer Dustin Hermanson in the rotation all year and outfielders Rondell White and Vladimir Guerrero maturing into MVP candidates, but Alou can only sprout more gray hair as his best players keep getting traded away. Next year I will be praising the game's finest manager for finishing fourth with a Little League team.

The Phillies are hoping for a comeback for center fielder Lenny Dykstra, who earned $6 million last season without playing an inning. Dykstra is 35 and hasn't hit a ball hard since the Ford administration. Of the Phils' gnarly 1993 Series heroes only John Kruk got away safely. Kruk retired years ago, avoiding ugly scenes like Dykstra's comeback attempt and last year's sighting of Mitch Williams, still flipping a few last gopher balls from his grave. The Phils have a fine young manager in Terry Francona, an ace in Curt Schilling, a fab third baseman in Rookie of the Year Scott Rolen and little chance of improving their abysmal 68--94 record.

National League Central

Houston will be favored in the Central but won't win. The Cardinals, who were an inch from the 1996 Series before backsliding to fourth place last season, won't be as banged up this time around. Even more important, Mark McGwire (24 homers in a mere 174 ABs for St. Louis, 58 for the season) is on hand from the start. That means supporting an improving pitching staff with 70 to 80 extra runs, enough to push manager Tony La Russa's reputation back into genius territory. With rehabbed closer Jeff Brantley saving games for a talented but undistinguished rotation, rejuvenated Delino DeShields at second and an outfield featuring Ray Lankford (.295, 31 homers, 98 RBI in a partial season), Ron Gant (17 homers in a down year) and possibly a healthy Brian Jordan, this year's Cardinals should be 15 games better than last year's edition--just enough to catch the underachievers who beat them out a year ago.

Even with the Cards' fold in 1997 the Astros barely eked out a division title before quickly excusing themselves from the playoffs. Now Series hero Moises Alou (.292, 23 homers, 115 RBI), rescued from the Florida fire sale, joins first baseman Jeff Bagwell, second baseman Craig Biggio and outfielder Derek Bell in a lineup chock with All-Stars. Their 1997 ace Darryl Kile signed with Colorado; Kile won 19 games last year but averaged only eight wins in the previous three seasons. Starters Shane Reynolds, Mike Hampton and Chris Holt will try to step up, while bazooka-armed closer Billy Wagner tries to avoid a repeat of last year's streaky performance. Manager Larry Dierker, trashed in this space last year, now returns to defend his title as Central Division genius. But I say the 1997 champion Astros, whose 84--78 record was the worst of the six division champs, will slip by three games this time around, morphing into a .500 club with thinly disguised holes in the everyday lineup, the rotation and the bullpen.

With no money to spend in small-market Pittsburgh, GM Cam Bonifay pulled a pennant contender out of his hat in 1997, when the Pirates contended all year and finished only five games out in this weak division. Their total payroll was less than Greg Maddux' current salary. They shocked patrons at Three Rivers Stadium by leaving the clubhouse to shake hands with ticket buyers as they entered the park. Still more surprising were the superb years they got from unexpected sources: First baseman Kevin Young's .300 average and 18 homers, closer Rich Loiselle's 29 saves, second baseman Tony Womack's league-leading 60 steals, even a combined no-hitter by a pair of no-name hurlers. Can such luck hold out? No. Manager Gene Lamont simply doesn't have the firepower to stay near the division leaders twice in a row. Lamont's best player, outfielder Al Martin, should top his 1997 numbers while everyone else loses ground. The Pittsburgh Pirates, who are two or three key injuries away from losing 100 games, are about two bad years from becoming the Charlotte Pirates.

Bud Selig's Brewers could challenge Cleveland--correction, St. Louis--in the Central this year. Commissioner Selig, who takes a "What, me worry?" approach to radical changes in the old game, is bringing his team to the National League. He can only hope DH Dave Nilsson (20 homers, 81 RBI) can handle switching to left field in the DH-less NL, right fielder Jeromy Burnitz (27 homers, 85 RBI, 20 steals) can match his 1997 numbers and both can stay out of Marquis Grissom's way. Grissom, a huge all-round talent coming off a substandard season, will be the most electrifying Brewer since Robin Yount. Unfortunately for manager Phil Garner, Milwaukee pitching may be scrap-heap material. Closer Doug Jones' soft-and-softer change-ups resulted in 36 saves last year, but the 40-year-old Jones has been written off several times before; in his last NL stint Jones blew five of seven save opportunities for the Cubs.

The Cubs tried Mel Rojas in the closer spot after Jones' 1996 flop and got similar results. Rojas flamed out and was shipped to the Mets. The Cubs' bullpen stoppers have stunk up Wrigley Field since Randy Myers absconded after the 1995 season. Since then Myers has saved 76 games for Baltimore while Chicago's bullpen made the blown save its specialty. The new savior is ex--Giants closer Rod Beck, who doesn't throw as hard as his setup man, Terry Adams, but has 199 career saves to Adams' 23. But how many leads will the Cubs hand over to Beck? As statmaster Bill James has shown, the best plan for a team in a hitters' park is to emphasize pitching and on-base percentage. That way you minimize enemy three-run homers and maximize your own. But since letting baseball's greatest starter get away in 1993 this club has consistently done the reverse, using mediocre starters and free-swinging hitters who treat walks like kryptonite. The 1998 rotation is another no-name crew; the lineup is worse than ever. Along with 1997 NL strikeout king Sammy Sosa, who at least managed 36 homers and 119 RBI while whiffing 174 times, the Cubs now feature 1996 strikeout leader Henry Rodriguez plus a new, strikeout-prone double-play combination of Jeff Blauser and Mickey Morandini. The one bat-control man is slap-hitting first baseman Mark Grace. Grace should be batting second or even leadoff, but in the clueless confines of Wrigley Field he is miscast as a middle-of-the-order guy.

Pete Rose will never enter the Hall of Fame. That's the good news. The bad news is that nobody else in Cincinnati will do Cooperstown either. Reds shortstop Barry Larkin could have been a Hall contender but his bad wheels will prevent that. And Cincinnati GM Jim Bowden, who has made some brilliant free-agent signings in recent years, must now hope Roberto Petagine becomes Roberto Clemente and outfielder Melvin Nieves becomes Mel Ott. Anonymous starting pitchers Dave Burba, Brett Tomko and Mike Remlinger are actually a talented trio, while Reggie Sanders and Willie Greene are potential 30-homer guys. Jeff Shaw, who had nine career saves before notching an NL-best 42 last year, is the league's newest stud closer. Still, with each passing year the crumbling Reds look less like a contender and more like the ash at the end of Marge Schott's cigarette.

National League West

Dodger blue has begun to signify a bad mood, not just a uniform color. For at least two years the Dodgers' talent has been the West's best while the performance of this proud, wealthy team has fallen short. If their heralded hurlers are a bit overpraised--with Ismael Valdes winning just 38 games in three years with his supposedly Madduxian talent, and 14-12 Hideo Nomo and 10-game winner Ramón Martinez slipping toward mediocrity--at least Chan Ho Park is the real deal. The tall 24-year-old Korean, often unhittable in a 14-8 season, may be better than Valdes. Closer Todd Worrell has retired after a calamitous season of blown saves and game-losing homers. Antonio Osuna, who once fanned 13 consecutive batters in the Mexican League, takes over, with Darren Dreifort on hand in case Osuna pulls a Worrell. Dreifort was 5-2 with four saves and a 2.86 ERA in his first full season--stats that barely hint at the 25-year-old Kansan's ability. On Dreifort's best nights his stuff is so evil that hitters have been known to drop their bats and laugh. Oddly enough, that makes him an iffy candidate for the closer role, for his pitches tend to elude catchers, too.

Catcher Mike Piazza has matured into the kind of hitter people talk about forever. A decade ago, Tom Lasorda had to beg his bosses to draft his pal Vince Piazza's kid, but since making the All-Star team in his rookie year Mike Piazza has batted .319, .346, .336 and .362 while averaging 33 homers and 104 RBI. All of this while playing half his games in one of the worst hitters' parks of all. The best-hitting catcher in history now has a higher career batting average than Pete Rose, George Brett or Rod Carew. His supporting cast ain't bad, either. First baseman Eric Karros is a consistent 30-homer man. Outfielder Raul Mondesi, third sacker Todd Zeile, zippy leadoff man Eric Young and 1996 Rookie of the Year Todd Hollandsworth are all candidates for this year's All-Star fiesta at Coors Field. So why don't the Dodgers win the utterly winnable West every year? Why do they lack personality? Perhaps because they have too many personalities.

Last summer Piazza publicly questioned his team's heart. The Los Angeles roster may be a great advertisement for diversity but it lacks cohesion, he said. The Dodgers were 25 men with 25 cabs and three interpreters.

Can manager Bill Russell lead such a patchwork crew through a grueling season and three rounds of playoffs? It says here that he can, because even in modern baseball the best team occasionally wins. The 1998 Dodgers will blow away the rest of the West en route to a postseason showdown with Atlanta.

The world champ Marlins' fire sale helped the Padres most of all. San Diego traded three minor-league prospects for Kevin Brown, the league's best starter who doesn't work for Ted Turner. Brown's 16--8, 2.69 ERA year was his second straight superb season for Florida. Now he heads a San Diego rotation that also stars Joey Hamilton and Andy Ashby, two of the league's better starters. Ken Caminiti, the 1996 MVP, fell from a .326 average with 40 homers and 130 RBI to .290 with 26 and 90 in a long, sore-shouldered 1997 but should do better this time around. Ditto Steve Finley, who dipped a bit last year to .261 with 28 homers and 92 RBI. The same cannot be said of God Himself, the San Diego right fielder. He had a career year in 1997 by batting .372--35 points higher than his lifetime average--with a sudden power surge at age 37: While lifting his average 19 points he went from three homers and 50 RBI to 17 and 119. Impossible, you say? Hey, Tony Gwynn works in mysterious ways.

The Colorado Rockies believe they have a mean one-two pitching punch with $24 million signee Darryl Kile, who won 19 games with a 2.57 ERA for the Astros last year, and ex-Dodger Pedro Astacio. Well, maybe. Kile's ERA might double in Denver's thin air. Astacio, who came from Los Angeles in the Eric Young trade and had several good outings before getting torched in his last Coors Field start, may soon be a candidate for the loony bin. Coors Field eats pitchers, and a homer-prone guy like Astacio could easily spend much of 1998 swiveling to watch moonshots disappear. The rest of the pitching staff resembles Swiss cheese. Colorado's attack stars MVP Larry Walker, Dante Bichette and Ellis Burks in a power-packed outfield, plus 40-homer man Vinny Castilla at third, hotshot shortstop Neifi Perez and ex-Expo second baseman Mike Lansing. Watch Lansing's stats soar as he moves from Montreal to Colorado. But can Colorado overtake the Dodgers with minor-league slugger Todd Helton trying to fill Galarraga's shoes at first base? Yes--if Kile wins 20 games for the Rockies, Astacio wins 15, Jerry Dipoto saves 35 and Hades freezes.

San Francisco's defending division champs have nowhere to go but down. Even with Robb Nen's 101-octane gas refueling the bullpen, even with Barry Bonds adding to his Cooperstown credentials, Dusty Baker's Giants are about to get dusted. The wondrous Bonds, who hit 40 homers with 101 RBI, had 37 steals (out of 45 attempts) and won still another Gold Glove in 1997, has already earned a spot among the ten or 15 greatest players ever. He somehow notches super stats each year while enemy hurlers constantly try to avoid him. No one gets more intentional--and semi-intentional--walks than Bonds, who leads the league in passes year after year. All of which suggests a fundamental question: Is Barry Bonds better than many of baseball's all-time greats? Is he better than, say, Roberto Clemente? Yes, easily. Is he better than his godfather, Willie Mays? Better than Ty Cobb, maybe even Babe Ruth? It's possible. I may be struck by lightning for saying so, but I say Bonds' one true rival as baseball's finest all-time player may not be Mays, Babe Ruth or Ty Cobb, who all excelled in a slower, weaker game, but his contemporary Ken Griffey Jr.

Phoenix sports mogul Jerry Colangelo annoyed his fellow owners by signing shortstop Jay Bell for megamillions to play for the Diamondbacks. Bell may be the 500th-best shortstop ever. Third baseman Matt Williams, however, will challenge San Diego's Caminiti in All-Star voting, while center fielder Devon White, ex-Dodger Karim Garcia and Rookie of the Year candidate Travis Lee fill out a lineup that should finish in the middle of the NL pack offensively. Manager Buck Showalter's mound corps includes starter Willie Blair, who survived a vicious line drive to the jaw last spring to win 16 games for Detroit. That meant free-agent millions for the eight-year veteran Blair, who had never before won more than seven. It won't mean more than ten wins in 1998 as Andy Benes leads fellow Snake starters Blair, Brian Anderson, Jeff Suppan and Omar Daal to the slaughter. The excitement starts March 31 in Phoenix, when Benes or Blair faces Colorado's Darryl Kile in the Diamondbacks' historic first loss.

Happy Opening Day. See you in the cheap seats.

Playboy's Picks

Al East

1. Yankees

2. Orioles

3. Blue Jays

4. Red Sox

5. Devil Rays

Al Central

1. Indians

2. White Sox

3. Twins

4. Tigers

5. Royals

Al West

1. Rangers

2. Mariners

3. Angels

4. Athletics

Al Wild Card: Mariners

Nl East

1. Braves

2. Mets

3. Marlins

4. Expos

5. Phillies

Nl Central

1. Cardinals

2. Astros

3. Pirates

4. Brewers

5. Cubs

6. Reds

Nl West

1. Dodgers

2. Padres

3. Rockies

4. Giants

5. Diamondbacks

Nl Wild Card: Padres

Al Champs: Yankees

Nl Champs: Braves

World Champs: Yankees

"Play ball or I'll let the Twins become the Charlotte/Greensboro/Winston-Salem Triplets."

The Braves may be baseball's best team. They have pitching, hitting and defense, but no karma.