Playboy's 1999 Baseball Preview

Ask any fan--diehard or casual, Dominican or Canadian--and he'll tell you: Baseball is back. Thanks to the supra-Ruthian feats of Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa, hardball has regained a place in our hearts. Of course, the Yankees helped too. After starting out 1-4, the Bronx Bombers went on to win 114 regular-season games en route to their 24th World Series title. Some will say the 1998 Yankees were the greatest team ever to play the game.

Two sluggers surprised us with their dignity. McGwire finally had the year we had been waiting for. It was only the fourth time in 13 seasons that he played in more than 154 games. A great low-ball hitter in a low-ball league, Big Mac hit more homers (70) than singles (61) in 1998. Sammy Sosa broke Ruth's record on the strength of an amazing June, when he hit 20 homers (while walking only six times). Sammy, a good bad-ball hitter, hit 25 homers when he had two strikes on him.

This is an extraordinary era for talent. We have Albert Belle--the only player in the majors to hit 50 doubles and 50 homers in the same season. He had an awesome second half (.387, 31 HRs, 86 RBI, .816 slugging percentage) with the White Sox. And Greg Maddux (2.75), who approaches Cy Young (2.63) in lifetime earned run average. And Tony Gwynn, who may be the best hitter ever. Watch him get his 3000th hit around Memorial Day.

Entering the 1999 season, we approach the game with a new sense of wonder: How could the Yankees not do it again? What will McGwire and Sosa do? How will Nomar Garciaparra do without Mo Vaughn?

Baseball is back. Last year was fun, but the game's foundation is more suspect than a Mel Rojas fastball. The game has entered a new era, where superclubs (such as the Dodgers) compete against high-revenue clubs (such as the Orioles) to the exclusion of everyone else. Low-revenue teams are doomed to a lifetime of losses. Hope doesn't spring eternal for Royals fans.

Look more closely, and 1998 may not be such a dream season. When baseball got in a jam after the Black Sox scandal in 1919, Babe Ruth bailed the game out with his home runs. After baseball's strike left a lot of people fed up, the homer again saved the day. But home runs serve to distort the game. The home-run race may be little more than a slam-dunk contest. "The more home runs get hit, the less each one is worth." notes Whitey Herzog in his new book You're Missin' a Great Game. "But the more home runs somebody hits, the more you have to pay him." Situational hitting (or pitching, for that matter) is on its way out. Hitters strike out at a furious pace, thinking, no doubt, of the dollars that attend home runs. And homers don't always translate into victories. Of the top-20 home run-hitting teams of all time, only the 1961 Yankees won a World Series.

Brick and steel continues to be as important as bat and ball. By next year, more than half the ballparks in the majors will have been built after 1990. This will be the last season for five stadiums. But the great loss will be Tiger Stadium, which opened in 1912. On September 27, with Hall of Famer Ernie Harwell calling the final game, the Tigers will close the home of Cobb, Kaline, Gehringer and Fidrych. When Tiger Stadium is gone, Dodger Stadium--built in 1962--will be baseball's fourth-oldest park. When Fenway Park closes in five years, Wrigley Field and Yankee Stadium will be the majors' only prewar stadiums.

For 1999 we foresee more business as usual. The Yankees are headed for another championship. Atlanta's pitching, while not as invincible as it once was, is still tough to beat. But, without Andres Galarraga--their most potent bat--the Braves' hitting will be weaker this year.

With Mo Vaughn, the Angels should be good enough to get past Texas. The Indians, of course, will win the Central. The Dodgers had better win after Mr. Murdoch spent all that dough. And the Astros should repeat in their division. Our bets for wild-card teams are the Blue Jays (they won as many games as the Rangers last year) and the Cards.

For Cinderellas, consider the Tigers and the Phillies. Watch for signs of life from Oakland. Look for someone-- Albert Belle? Ken Griffey? Manny Ramirez?--to challenge Babe again this year. AL MVP? We'll go out on a limb and say Ken Griffey Jr. In the NL, how about Mark McGwire?

American League East

The Yankees ended their dream season in resounding fashion, finishing at 125-50 and making the Padres look like pretenders. How did they do it? George Steinbrenner stopped buying overrated free agents. People say New York doesn't have any superstars, but Bernie Williams (.339, 26 HRs, 97 RBI) and Derek Jeter (.324, 19 HRs, 30 SBs) look good to us. The Yankees won by playing smart ball: They were second-best in the majors in taking 3.84 pitches per plate appearance. They were third in the bigs in walks and hit .300 with runners in scoring position. The Yankees scored 345 more runs than the Devil Rays. We could go on, but that's just the offense. From one through ten, the Yankees have one of the best staffs in the majors. They led the AL in pitching with a 3.82 ERA, giving up 275 fewer runs than the White Sox. The Yankees hurled 16 shutouts. And, just for fun, the team (continued on page 128) Baseball Preview(continued from page 96) added Cy Young perennial Roger Clemens to its rotation. Maybe the Yanks can go 150-12 this year.

Which team had the highest winning percentage in the AL from July 31 to the end of the season? The Blue Jays, of course, who went 34-18 and finished just four games out of the wild card. But it was a chaotic year for Toronto. The team was sold to a Belgian brewery--which mandated payroll cuts--and threatened to return to seagull-infested Exhibition Stadium if its Skydome lease wasn't revised. The Skydome went into bankruptcy. The Jays let Jose Canseco go to Tampa and sent Roger Clemens to New York for David Wells. Manager Tim Johnson's bizarre managerial style included feuding with coaches and making up stories about combat duty in Vietnam. Despite all this intrigue, the Jays have one of the best young teams in baseball. First baseman Carlos Delgado (.292, 38 HRs, 115 RBI) is a fine young slugger. Right fielder Shawn Green hit 35 homers, stole 35 bases and drove in 100 runs. Left fielder Shannon Stewart had a great second half, and stole 51 bases. After a stay in the minors, center fielder Jose Cruz Jr. slugged .503 in the second half. On the last day of the 1998 season, 21-year-old Roy Halladay threw a one-hitter against Detroit. With Wells, Pat Hentgen, newly acquired Joey Hamilton, Chris Carpenter and Kelvim Escobar, the Jays may have the AL's best starting rotation. It's tough for a young team to step up, and a lot can go wrong here. But if Gord Ash resists the temptation to trade a young starting pitcher, the Jays could be interesting.

The Orioles began last season as baseball's oldest and highest-paid team and ended as its biggest flop. After reaching the ALCS the previous two years, the O's underachieved their way to a fourth-place finish, 35 games behind the Yanks. The team was due for a shake-up. Last year's top three hitters (Robbie Alomar, Rafael Palmeiro and Eric Davis) are gone, but the O's salvaged offensive credibility by signing Albert Belle. They also added second baseman Delino DeShields, catcher Charles Johnson and first baseman Will Clark. The durable Belle has led the majors in homers, RBI and extra-base hits over the past eight seasons. And he'll love hitting in Baltimore. In 43 games at Camden Yards, Belle has hit .294 with 15 homers, the most by any visiting player. But he'll need help. Clark comes off his best year since 1991 (.305, 23 HRs, 102 RBI), but he won't match Palmeiro's numbers. Johnson, a four-time Gold Glove winner, will help the pitching and keep runners honest, but he has to hit. And Brady Anderson must rebound from injuries. The O's are solid at the top of the rotation with ace Mike Mussina and workhorse Scott Erickson. But Juan Guzman and young Sidney Ponson are uneven, and new closer Mike Timlin will have to carry a big load.

It was a lousy off-season in Beantown. The team raised ticket prices and announced in December it was banning pushcart vendors from outside Fenway. "The Red Sox can go to hell," a Boston councilman declared, and the team relented on vendors. General manager Dan Duquette supposedly had a chance to sign Mo Vaughn to a four-year, $42 million contract. But Duquette didn't seem to like Mo's habits. Now the team is left with a franchise player in Nomar Garciaparra, a great starter in Pedro Martinez, a $26 million banjo hitter in Jose Offerman and a closer, Tom Gordon, who'll be hardpressed to match last year's performance. In 1998 Boston finally won a postseason game, but it doesn't look as if they'll have a chance to win another this year. Don't be fooled by a quick start. Boston has a soft schedule for the first 25 games. Without Mo, Boston ends up close to .500.

Unlike their expansion counterparts in Arizona, the Devil Rays enter their second season with modest expectations. GM Chuck LaMar hopes to build a contender around a nucleus that includes outfielders Randy Winn and Quinton McCracken, infielders Miguel Cairo and Bobby Smith, and pitchers Rolando Arrojo and Tony Saunders. The Rays may contend in a few years, but for now they'll rely on pitching and defense. Last year Tampa Bay scored the fewest runs in the majors. The addition of Jose Canseco (46 HRs, 107 RBI) should help, but if the Rays are to improve, vets Fred McGriff, Paul Sorrento and Kevin Stocker need to pick it up at the plate.

American League Central

If Jim Thome has another biscuit for breakfast on October 10, 1998, his first-inning drive ends up a three-run homer in the Jacobs Field seats rather than a warning track fly ball in Paul O'Neill's glove. Thome's near-miss was as close as the Indians would get to the World Series. Failing an invasion from outer space, the Tribe will win the Central again this year, but Cleveland won't win a championship until it gets a number one starter. They do have two promising frontline hurlers in Bartolo Colon and Jaret Wright, and one of the league's best bullpens (enhanced this season by Jerry Spradlin, Ricardo Rincon and a healthy Steve Reed). The Indians' surprisingly complacent offense was only sixth in the AL in runs scored. For the first time since 1991, the Tribe didn't have a .300 hitter. The addition of Robbie Alomar, along with a healthy Jim Thome and continued improvement from Manny Ramirez, should help the team score. But the clock is ticking for Cleveland: Key players are getting old and the Indians' winning percentage has dropped 145 points since 1995.

In losing 97 games last season, the Tigers took a giant step back from the ground that they gained in 1997. But there's a lot to like in Detroit: 23-year-old outfielder Juan Encarnacion (.329 in 40 games), promising second baseman Damion Easley, outfielder Bobby Higginson (.284, 25 HRs), tall Tony Clark (.291, 34 HRs, 103 RBI) and highly touted rookie outfielder Gabe Kapler (146 RBI in AA ball). Dean Palmer (34 HRs, 119 RBI with Kansas City) will solve the Tigers' problems at third base, and Brad Ausmus provides (continued on page 158)Baseball Preview (continued from page 128) much-needed experience behind the plate. But, even on a team that was last in the league in walks, leadoff man Brian Hunter (with an on-base percentage of 298) was terrible, scoring only 67 runs in 142 games. The pitching? Justin Thompson (11-15, 4.05) and Brian Moehler (14-13, 3.90) may become premiere hurlers. Willie Blair, who had lousy run support last year with Arizona and New York, will be happier back in Detroit. The pen looks decent with Doug Brocail, Sean Runyan and 1997's number one draft pick Matt Anderson (who was clocked at 103 mph last September). The Tigers are improving, but this will be a critical year if the team hopes to be competitive in its new stadium--which will appropriately have a carousel--next season.

Owner Jerry Reinsdorf has taken the White Sox down-market. By not re-signing third baseman Robin Ventura and letting Albert Belle go, Reinsdorf cut the payroll below $30 million. But he claims he's giving the fans what they want: a bunch of "young, hustling players they can relate to." The Sox have the AL's youngest team. The pitching staff--worst in the majors last year--figures to be better. Top starter James Baldwin went 10-3 after the All-Star break, and youngsters Mike Sirotka, Jim Parque and John Snyder looked good as well, helping the Sox finish with a 45-31 second half. But any strides made in pitching will be offset by the loss of Belle and Ventura. The Sox are counting on a better season from Frank Thomas, whose average tumbled to .265 after winning the 1997 batting crown, and a break-through year from former minor-league player of the year Paul Konerko, who may play first. The middle infield is solid offensively, with All-Star second baseman Ray Durham (.285, 19 HRs) and surprising shortstop Mike Caruso (.306). The Sox also have a splendid utilityman in Craig Wilson, who hit .468 last year, but there are a lot of holes to fill in the lineup. In a weak division, the best the Sox can hope for is a credible finish.

In 1988, the Twins became the first AL team to draw 3 million fans. This year they'll be lucky to draw a million. Hoping to cut his losses on the balance sheet, Twins owner Carl Pohlad ordered a payroll purge. There wasn't much to purge; last year the Twins had baseball's 25th lowest payroll. The team even cut back organist Ronnie Newman from playing 81 home games to 22. So who remains to soldier on at the Metrodome? A few affordable vets such as former 20-game winner Brad Radke, catcher Terry Steinbach and reliever Mike Trombley. There's also infielder Todd Walker (.316), outfielder Matt Lawton (.278, 21 HRs) and several decent prospects, all of whom may be playing elsewhere soon. With dwindling fan support and no backing for a new stadium, the Twins could be heading south.

The Royals were bad in 1998 and figure to be worse in 1999. During the off-season they lost their two main bats--Dean Palmer and Jose Offerman (.315, 45 SBs)--along with their two best starters--Tim Belcher and Pat Rapp--who combined for 26 of the rotation's 55 wins. These losses will be tough to overcome, because the Royals scored the second fewest runs in the AL last season while giving up the second most. With a popgun lineup that will include only three players with more than eight homers last season (Jeff King, Johnny Damon and Mighty Joe Randa), the Royals will have a tough time avoiding 100 losses. Prospects Carlos Febles, Carlos Beltran and Jeremy Giambi offer a glimmer of hope, but this franchise is in trouble.

American League West

When injuries finally caught up with the Angels last season, the team went into its annual nosedive, going 9-15 in September. This year the pressure will be on GM Bill Bavasi to play his cards better. Disney did its part by signing first baseman Mo Vaughn (.337, 40 HRs, 115 RBI with Boston) to a six-year, $80 million deal, but the team still needs pitching. The starting rotation is old, which is why Anaheim was last in the AL with only three complete games. Chuck Finley did a great job (3.39 in 223 1/3 innings), but at 36 he may not have much left. The Halos signed 37-year-old Tim Belcher (who gave up a league-leading 37 homers with KC last season) to eat up some innings, but they need a strong season from Ken Hill (9-6, 4.98) and help from 24-year-old lefty Jarrod Washburn (6-3, 4.62) or minor-leaguer Scott Schoeneweis. The outfield is impressive, with Tim Salmon (.300, 26 HRs) and Darin Erstad (.296, 20 SBs). Jim Edmonds (.307, 25 HRs) or Garret Anderson will probably be traded. Watch for third-base phenom Troy Glaus, who hit 35 homers in the minors in 1998. The Angels are unpredictable, but if Bavasi swings the right trade, they can take the AL West.

The Rangers' biggest problem is having to play in Texas in summer. The team went 24-30 in June and July. Catcher Ivan Rodriguez, who had a slugging percentage of .618 in May, slugged .374 in June. Juan Gonzalez hit .257 in June, the only month he slugged under .600, but still managed to drive in 101 runs at the break (two shy of Hank Greenberg's 1935 record). Johnny Oates plans to bat Gonzalez third and new addition Rafael Palmeiro (43 HRs, 121 RBI with Baltimore) cleanup. What can you say about Pudge Rodriguez? He hit .321 and led the majors by throwing out 56.3 percent of would-be base stealers. There's plenty more offense with Rusty Greer, Lee Stevens and phenom Ruben Mateo. But the Rangers are weak on the mound--their team ERA (4.99) was third worst in the AL. Rick Helling and Aaron Sele, who were helped in 1998 by strong run support, won't combine for 39 wins this year. And Mark Clark (9-14, 4.84 last year with the Cubs) won't inspire any comparisons to Bob Gibson. Texas' success this year will ride on whatever pitching they can trade for.

With a 1998 opening day roster that featured two of the game's stars--Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez--and five other recent All-Stars, the Mariners seemed set to defend the division title. But an early bullpen meltdown steered the Mariners off course, and by mid-May they slipped below .500, where they languished for the rest of the year. General manager Woody Woodward added to the calamity with his botched 11th-hour trade of Randy Johnson. Woodward's off-season dealings haven't drawn raves, either. Going into the M's debut season at Safeco Field, Woodward added two guys named Butch (Henry and Huskey), and a Mabry and a Mieske (John and Matt). That adds up to a stronger bench, but the Mariners still look short on arms. The rotation is questionable beyond Jeff Fassero and Jamie Moyer, and new closer Jose Mesa gave up three bases-loaded walks in eight days with the Giants last year. The Mariners are high on two pitching prospects, right-hander Gil Meche and 6'10" lefty Ryan "Young Unit" Anderson, but both are probably a year away. Looks like manager Lou Piniella will have another stressed-out summer.

The Athletics are on the upswing. Art Howe leads a well-coached team with plenty of exceptional young hitters: 1998 AL Rookie of the Year Ben Grieve, likely 1999 Rookie of the Year Eric Chavez and first baseman Jason Giambi. Matt Stairs can hit and Ryan Christenson may be the best defensive center fielder in the league. But the pitching has a ways to go. Last year it was Kenny Rogers and pray for rain. Tom Candiotti gets his innings but contributes little else. The A's will need improvement from Jimmy Haynes and help from some of their minor-league pitchers, especially Mark Mulder. There's enough potential here that if general manager Billy Beane pulls off a good trade for Rogers this season, the A's could soon make things interesting for Texas and Anaheim.

National League East

The Braves won 106 games last year, but couldn't score a run when it mattered. Determined to improve its offense, the team signed Cards right fielder Brian Jordan (.316, 25 HRs) to a modest five-year, $40 million contract and swapped starter Denny Neagle for Reds Gold Glove second baseman Bret Boone. That means Panamanian sensation Bruce Chen will start, which puts pressure on number four starter Kevin Millwood. But why worry about your four and five guys when your top three starters are Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz? Maddux hasn't had an ERA above 3.00 since a Republican was in the White House. All five starters won at least 16 games last year. The Braves are vulnerable in the pen, though, as Mark Wohlers' collapse revealed. Chipper Jones (.313, 34 HRs, 107 RBI) and Andruw Jones (.271, 31 HRs, 90 RBI) keep getting better. But Atlanta will miss the Big Cat. Look for them to pull off a big trade.

The Mets almost made the postseason last year, but the team managed only seven runs in its final 44 innings. Other than John Olerud (.354) and Mike Piazza (.348 in 109 games with the Mets), there wasn't much offense. To score more runs, the club signed Piazza to a seven-year, $91 million deal (less than what he turned down from the Dodgers, who offered a six-year, $84 million contract) and shelled out $32 million for third baseman Robin Ventura. The Mets also obtained 40-year-old Rickey Henderson, who stole 66 bases for Oakland last season. Pitching was shored up when the team dropped another $32 million to keep Al Leiter (the best behind-in-the-count pitcher in the bigs last season). Rick Reed is an underrated starter (16-11, 3.48, 29 walks in 212 1/3 innings), but the rest of the rotation is suspect. The Mets hope for a revival by Hideo Nomo (6-12, 4.92), but hitters have learned to lay off his split finger, accounting for his 94 walks. John Franco, who blew eight saves last year, will be helped by the addition of flamethrower Armando Benitez (87 Ks in 68 1/3 innings at Baltimore). The most significant addition this season may be the five rows of premium seats behind home plate at Shea. At $150 a pop, they'll help pay Piazza's salary.

It's hard to believe the Phillies were in the wild-card hunt at the All-Star break. The wheels came off in the second half, when the team went 32-45. Veterans Stadium--already home of the smallest hot dogs and the loudest boos in baseball--suffered further ignominy when two fans filed a lawsuit charging short pours on beer. On the field this year there may not be much improvement. Off-season additions Chad Ogea, 34-year-old Ron Gant and Jeff Brantley won't take anybody to the promised land. The oft-injured pitching staff could be politely described as uneven: Tyler Green has a career ERA of 5.16. Carlton Loewer--the Phils' best young pitcher--outdid that last year with a 6.09 ERA. The Phillies have three legit stars in Curt Schilling, Scott Rolen and Bobby Abreu. Rolen improved on his freshman numbers, hitting .290 with 31 homers. Abreu hit .312 and led the majors with a .427 average with runners in scoring position. But the Phillies will have to decide soon whether to trade Schilling. If they keep him they could get lucky and win 85 games. If they trade him for prospects, they could lose 100.

It's a familiar refrain in Quebec: good young players, a great manager and a franchise hanging by a thread. Amazing 23-year-old Vladimir Guerrero (.324, 38 HRs) will win multiple MVPs. If Rondell White could stay healthy (in six seasons, only once has he played more than 130 games), he'd be a great center fielder. Vladimir's brother Wilton (.284) started to show signs in 1998 of living up to his potential. Pitching is improving for the Expos, but beyond Dustin Hermanson (14-11, 3.13) and Carl Pavano (who had the honor of giving up Mark McGwire's 70th homer on a 96 mph fastball), the rotation is unproven. The bullpen is anchored by the best unknown closer--and best two-strike pitcher--in the game. Ugueth Urbina (34 saves, 37 hits in 69 1/2 innings). But if the latest financing plan doesn't pan out--say it ain't so--it could be Adieu, mon Youppi.

After Connie Mack broke up his championship Philadelphia Athletics in 1915, his team finished in last place for seven straight seasons. Things aren't that bad for the Marlins. GM Dave Dombrowski has put together the deepest farm system in baseball. New owner John Henry should help things along. With first baseman Derrek Lee, third baseman Mike Lowell (acquired from the Yankees in February) and outfielders Cliff Floyd, Mark Kotsay and Todd Dunwoody, the offense is promising. And it will be fun to watch rookie shortstop Alex Gonzalez this season. Florida's young pitching has the rest of the league drooling. Jesus Sanchez, a hard-throwing 24-year-old lefty, struck out 137 batters in 173 innings last year. In the minors there's A.J. Burnett and Geoff Goetz. Wait till next year for those guys.

National League Central

When the Astros outfoxed everybody to get Randy Johnson at the trading deadline last year, they seemed headed for the World Series. Johnson did his part, winning 10 of his 11 starts. Houston went 55-26 at home last season, second best in the NL. And they cleaned up in their own division, going 38-18. But Houston's offense--which led the NL in runs scored--cooled at the end of the season. They're back for another run. In Craig Biggio, Houston has an incredible leadoff hitter. Even though Biggio walked only 64 times, he scored 123 runs. Jeff Bagwell started slow last year but hit .328 after the break. His off year was offset by Moises Alou (.312, 38 HRs). Derek Bell (.314, 108 RBI) and Carl Everett are nothing to sneeze at, either. And the Astros brought back Ken Caminiti with a two-year contract, which should make this intense team even more hyper. Shane Reynolds (19-8, 3.51) and Mike Hampton (11-7, 3.36) have matured as starters and Jose Lima (16-8, 3.70, with only 32 walks in 233 1/2 innings) made Texans forget about Darryl Kile. Everybody wants 23-year-old right-hander Scott Elarton (40 hits allowed in 57 innings last year), but he'll be in the rotation if Chris Holt isn't. The middle relief is thin, but Billy Wagner-- after taking a liner off the pumpkin-- came back to finish with 30 saves and 97 Ks in 60 innings. Even with Alou's injury, the Astros look to have the edge in the Central.

Mark McGwire's home runs weren't enough to prevent the Cardinals' second straight disappointing season. After an off-season overhaul, the Redbirds begin the year with only two starters returning from last opening day. Eric Davis--who hit .327 and slugged .582 last year in Baltimore--was brought in to replace Brian Jordan. J.D. Drew takes over for Ron Gant in left. Drew, who showed a convincing amount of power last season, is the morning-line rookie of the year. With steady Ray Lankford (31 HRs, 105 RBI) in center, the Cards could have one of baseball's best outfields. The infield is improved with the addition of shortstop Edgar Renteria, who will shore up a defense that committed the second most errors in the league last year. McGwire isn't likely to top last year's 70-homer season (nor his .752 slugging average), but he'll reach the 500-homer plateau this year. The Cardinals will contend for the division title if their pitching comes together. The bullpen is vastly improved with the addition of Scott Radinsky and Ricky Bottalico. Matt Morris looks solid atop a rotation that needs strong years from Darren Oliver, Kent Mercker and Donovan Osborne. If they come through and either Manny Aybar or Jose Jimenez emerges as a dependable starter, this could be the Cards' year.

The Cubs managed an amazing turnaround last year as they went from a league-worst record to their first postseason appearance since 1989. They pulled off 49 come-from-behind wins (24 in their last at bat). They got big years from Rod Beck, Mickey Morandini, Mark Grace and pickups Glenallen Hill and Gary Gaetti. And then, of course, there were the marquee men--MVP Sammy Sosa and Rookie of the Year Kerry Wood. After a 20-strikeout performance against Houston (in only his fifth big-league start), Wood proved he wasn't a one-hit wonder by going 13-6 with 233 Ks in 166 2/3 innings. He also held opponents to a league-low .196 average. And then there was Sammy, blowing kisses and heart-tapping his way into a ticker-tape parade. Can he hit 66 homers again? Don't count on it--but 45 HRs and 130 RBI seem plausible. The Cubs will need every bit of it. Sammy--who whiffed 345 times in the past two seasons--may have to carry the team. This year's bunch will be the league's oldest squad. If Wood stays healthy, the starting rotation will be the Cubs' strong suit. Kevin Tapani (19-9) and slowpoke Steve Trachsel (15-8) should be steady again. The pen, however, looks shaky. A league-high 449 relief appearances took its toll last year and the problems will carry over. Injuries and declining performances could return mediocrity to Wrigley.

"Watching Atlanta play Cincinnati now," writes The Cincinnati Enquirer's Paul Daugherty, "is like watching the U.S. go to war with Switzerland." It's the only franchise that doesn't have games on free TV. Despite the valiant efforts of GM Jim Bowden, the Reds' near future looks murky. He's stockpiled outfielders and will probably wait until July 31--now the most important trading time of the year--to swap Greg Vaughn and Denny Neagle for a boatload of prospects. There are good signs: Brett Tomko walked only 64 men in 210 2/3 innings last year. A slimmed-down Dmitri Young (.310, 83 RBI, 48 doubles) is solid (so to speak) at the plate. Barry Larkin will stick around. Center fielder-in-waiting Mike Cameron played well in winter ball. And Danny Graves (2-1, 3.32, 8 saves) looks promising as the closer. But will somebody wake up skipper Jack McKeon? This is supposed to be a young, hustling team. McKeon rarely used the hit-and-run and called only seven pitchouts last season.

Milwaukee's return to the National League was less than auspicious. The Brewers started off with a head of steam, going 16-8 in April. But in the NL only the Marlins had more losses in the second half. This year won't be much better. Milwaukee has some good offensive players--third baseman Jeff Cirillo (.321, 194 hits), second baseman Fernando Vina (.311, 198 hits), unheralded right fielder Jeromy Burnitz (38 HRs, 125 RBI)--but plenty of question marks. Can Sean Berry deliver as an everyday first baseman? Can Aussie Dave Nilsson handle the wear and tear behind the plate (he caught only seven games last year)? Will infielder Ron Belliard actually be as good as he looks? Is there a prayer for the starting pitching? The ERA for Milwaukee's starters, 5.01, was third worst in the league last year. Brewers' pitchers coughed up 12 homers to Sammy Sosa and four (or was it five?) to Mark McGwire. The Brews don't look like they'll be ready to compete when Miller Park opens next April.

After winning fans as overachievers in 1997, the Pirates returned to earth last year. They closed the season losing 25 of their last 30 games and finished with their worst record in 12 years. The Bucs were dragged down by a weak offense that scored the second fewest runs in the league. Off-season additions Brant Brown and Brian Giles should provide more punch. They'll team with right fielder Jose Guillen (who's gone from Clemente clone to trade bait in one season) to give the Pirates a solid if unspectacular outfield. But they'll again lack power. All-Star catcher Jason Kendall (.327, 26 SBs) is solid, as is the starting rotation led by Francisco Cordova and Jason Schmidt. The Pirates will be better this year, but they'll be lucky to win as many as they lose. The future hinges on prospects such as Aramis Ramirez, Chad Hermansen and Warren Morris.

National League West

Can't sleep? Watch a Dodgers game. Los Angeles was terrible last year, hitting a soporific .236 with runners in scoring position. The team didn't win more than four in a row all season. New manager Davey Johnson will have his hands full with a locker room of prima donnas. Kevin Brown will be very good in Dodger Stadium--the toughest park in the majors to score runs in--but he'll pitch for a lousy defensive team that doesn't score runs even on the road. Brown has thrown some 800 innings over the past three years, so it's unlikely he'll have the stuff for his third straight World Series. Chan Ho Park (15-9, 3.71), Ismael Valdes (8-2 and 2.05 at home) and Carlos Perez (3.24 in 11 games in Cali) are impressive, but the Dodgers miss injured Ramon Martinez. Gary Sheffield, who made more money last year than Pittsburgh's entire team, drove in just 85 runs. That's not much for a big bopper, but it was only the third time in 11 major-league seasons he's driven in more than 78 runs. Sheff will move to left this season so Raul Mondesi can return to right. And 36-year-old Devon White--who this year will pass Babe Ruth in career strikeouts--will play center. If catcher Todd Hundley's elbow can't take the daily grind, the Dodgers will look to rookie Angel Pena (.335 in AA). One prospect remaining from Tommy Lasorda's purge is 21-year-old third baseman Adrian Beltre, who tore up the Dominican winter league. The Dodgers will win in a weak NL West, but won't go far in October.

The Rockies' new manager, Jim Leyland, says Coors Field is the "most beautiful ugliest place" he's ever seen. The Rockies' top two starters, Darryl Kile and Pedro Astacio, know how ugly things can get in Denver. Last year they had airy home ERAs of 6.22 and 7.39. Of course, opposing hurlers don't fare any better. And, just as the arena-ball park makes pitchers look bad, it makes hitters look awesome. The Rockies hit .325 at home last year, but had the league's second-worst offense on the road. The pitching, on the other hand, held up away from Denver, posting a 4.23 ERA. We look for young starters Jamey Wright and John Thomson to improve, and expect a better year from Kile, too. We're not sure, though, what to anticipate from Astacio--last year, he led the league in runs, earned runs and home runs allowed. If the Rockies are to better last year's 77-85 record, they'll need more production from Mike Lansing and Larry Walker, and more of the same from Vinny Castilla (46 HRs, 144 RBI), Todd Helton (25 HRs, 97 RBI) and Dante Bichette (22 HRs, 122 RBI). Walker did hit .363, good enough for the NL batting title, but a sore elbow held him to only 23 HRs and 67 RBI. The Rockies will open with the same lineup they ended with last season, but have faith in Leyland. Owner Jerry McMorris points to "a lot of theories that say a manager can mean ten games." We'll go along with that and expect the Rockies to contend for the wild card.

Dusty Baker's team did it again last year. After being left for dead, the Giants went on a 9-2 streak to end the year. If the Giants hadn't blown a 7-0 lead in Colorado on the last day of the season, they wouldn't have had to play (and lose to) the Cubs in a 163rd-game tiebreaker. But the Giants could have a tough time matching up with the rest of the NL West in their final season at Candlestick. Sure, there's Barry Bonds (ho hum: .303, 120 runs, 37 HRs, 122 RBI, 28 SBs), but the rest of the team has us scratching our heads. How is this the second-best offense in the NL? (Hint: San Francisco led the majors in walks.) Jeff Kent had his second strong year in a row. Despite missing a month, he drove in 128 runs, leading the NL with ten sacrifice flies. Underrated third baseman Bill Mueller hit .294 and scored 93 runs. Good-glove-no-hit first baseman J.T. Snow (.248, 15 HRs) managed to drive in 79 runs. But there are questions about the outfield. Ellis Burks, coming off surgery on both knees, will be in right. Center field is up in the air, with ageless Stan Javier competing against rookie Armando Rios and Marvin Benard (who hit .366 after the break). The starting rotation is thin. Lefty Kirk Rueter (16-9) is good, but Mark Gardner, 37, had the best season of his ten-year career in 1998. Shawn Estes was hurt much of last season and will have to regain his 1997 form (when he won 19) if the Giants are to have a chance. The front office expects a lot from Russ Ortiz, but Ortiz didn't show much last season and was unimpressive in winter ball. San Francisco has a strong pen--its 3.14 ERA last season was the best in the majors. Now that Jose Mesa has gone north to Seattle, Julian Tavarez will assume the setup role for Robb Nen. Even though it looks like the Giants are playing for next year, don't count out Dusty.

Last year Diamondbacks GM Joe Garagiola Jr. talked up his team's chances of becoming the first expansion team to finish above .500 in its first season. The D-Backs, after all, had signed big-ticket players Matt Williams, Jay Bell, Andy Benes and Devon White, along with highly touted rookie Travis Lee. But an 8-31 start set the Snakes off course, and only a strong second half prevented a 100-loss season. This year, after a $119 million off-season shopping spree, Arizona fancies itself a contender. The biggest catch, Randy Johnson, is the game's most dominant lefty. Add signees Todd Stottlemyre and Armando Reynoso alongside incumbents Benes, Omar Daal and Brian Anderson (who could be dealt soon) and you have a rotation that ranks among baseball's best. But Arizona will struggle again on offense. They had the lowest team batting average in the majors last year (.246) and set an NL record for strikeouts (1239). Even with better years from Bell and Williams and contributions from new outfielders Luis Gonzalez and Steve Finley, the D-Backs still aren't the '27 Yankees.

Over the past few years the Padres have been a roller-coaster team. First place in 1996. Last place in 1997. First place in 1998. Guess where they're heading this season. Without Kevin Brown, Greg Vaughn, Ken Caminiti, Steve Finley and Joey Hamilton, the Padres are on their way back to the basement. Other than ground-ball specialist Andy Ashby (17-9, 3.34) and Sterling Hitchcock (who earned his stripes in the postseason when he beat Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux), there's not much starting pitching. In Trevor Hoffman (53 saves) the Padres have the best closer in the game, but he'll be a free agent after this season. Ruben Rivera--acquired from the Yankees in 1997 for Hideki Irabu--will take over for Steve Finley in center. Oft-injured Reggie Sanders (.268, 59 RBI with the Reds in 1998) may play right, moving Tony Gwynn--who made only one error in 116 games there last year--to left field. Other than Garth Brooks, San Diego has a bunch of retreads (John Vander Wal, Shane Mack, Dave Magadan) and not much of a chance. If the Padres' goal last season was to put together a team that would galvanize support for a new stadium, they were successful. Now the team can worry about next year.

Playboys Picks

• May 28: Diamondbacks manager Buck Showalter issued Giants left fielder Barry Bonds an intentional pass with the bases loaded. With two outs and the D-Backs leading by two runs in the ninth, pitcher Gregg Olson walked Bonds, forcing in a run, moving the tying run to third and the go-ahead run to second. Olson then induced Brent Mayne to line out. Game over, Diamondbacks 8, Giants 7. "They got lucky," said Mayne. It was only the third time a big leaguer had been walked intentionally with the bases loaded.

• August 30: Ken Griffey hit two home runs--his 46th and 47th--at Yankee Stadium. In the bottom of the fifth a fan wearing a Griffey jersey and carrying an NFL football ran out to center field from the left-field seats. When two guards tackled the zealot a few feet away from the Mariners center fielder, Griffey took his football. "I signed it while he was on the ground," said Griffey. "I gave it back to him and they took him away. He already was in trouble anyway."

Dugout: Whitey Herzog

In his heyday with the Royals and Cardinals, Whitey Herzog enjoyed a well-deserved reputation as the best manager in the bigs. He parted ways with the Cards in 1990, and, after a stint in the Angels front office, stepped away from the game. Now he's back. With his insightful new book, You're Missin' a Great Game (Simon & Schuster), Whitey offers hope for baseball's future. We asked Herzog for his take on the state of the game.

Q: Which players impress you most today?

A: Guys like Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. Look at their age and what they've done. They're super players. And then there's McGwire, Sosa, Griffey, Barry Bonds. Bonds has always known how to play the game. He's in that Kaline-Maris mold in terms of fundamentally playing the game right. Barry never makes mental mistakes.

Q: How weak is pitching today?

A: When I was managing, if you had an ERA over 5.00 by June, you were out of the rotation. Now, you see a lot of starters with high ERAs. And you don't see many hard throwers anymore. You have maybe 320 pitchers in the majors today and I bet fans can't name 25 of them.

Q: What managers do you like?

A: It's a money game today. If you give a manager an $85 million payroll, his team will be in the playoffs. But the managers with small payrolls are often the ones doing the best jobs. Look at Art Howe in Oakland, Gene Lamont in Pittsburgh or Felipe Alou in Montreal. Those guys do great jobs, but they don't get the recognition. Jim Riggleman also did a great job last year.

Q: Are there more injuries now?

A: No more than before. But today, you have X-ray machines in the clubhouse, and you have MRIs, so you find more injuries. And you have malpractice suits and agents telling players not to play unless they feel good. I'm sure if you asked Bob Gibson, he'd tell you he never felt 100 percent when he pitched. Guys used to be reluctant to sit out a game. A lot of guys play hurt today, but not as many as before. There aren't as many good players in the minors to take their places.

Q: How would you rank the 1998 Yankees?

A: The Yanks are the only team in the majors with ten top pitchers. Look at Irabu. He had a hell of a year and he didn't even pitch in the postseason. They're as deep as the 1969 Mets and some of the great Oakland staffs. And you have to give the Yanks' international scouting a lot of credit.

Q: What will Rupert Murdoch mean to the game?

A: I'm sure within two years the Dodgers will have a $105 million payroll. What I wonder, if you're an owner in the National League West, why would you let Murdoch in? Look at Colorado. They sell out the house every night, but they can't compete with that kind of money.

Q: How important do you think team chemistry is?

A: When I used to get asked about team chemistry, I'd say our chemistry isn't very good, but neither is our arithmetic or our geometry. I think it's one of the most overrated things in baseball. Team chemistry is always good when you're winning and always bad when you're losing. When you win, the manager communicates well. When you lose, the manager doesn't communicate.

Q: What do you see happening if the game's economic problems aren't addressed?

A: If we continue to play under the present rules--if the local TV and cable TV revenue isn't divided--then you could see three or four teams go under, and you'd have 100 ballplayers looking for jobs. I hope that doesn't happen, but maybe that has to happen to wake everybody up.

The Money Game

"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet." Damon Runyon

There have always been rich and poor teams. But the gulf has never been wider. In the past year, we've seen the creation of a third tier, teams so dominant they preclude other teams' chances. The Yankees had an estimated $175 million in revenue last season, while the Expos took in $35 million. And the Yanks finished at 114-48, the Expos at 65-97.

Last season, 23 teams finished nine or more games out. Historically, big-city teams have dominated the game, but teams in smaller cities still had chances to win. That's no longer the case. Franchises such as Kansas City, Montreal and Pittsburgh don't stand a chance to win. Ever.

Surprisingly, teams at the bottom turn a profit. The Marlins, for example, appear to have made more money in 1998 than they did in 1997, when they won the World Series, If you can't win with a $35 million payroll, why not pay your team $15 million and make a buck? Minnesota has already conceded it can't win in 1999 and announced it will cut last year's $25 million payroll in half.

No more will we see the likes of the 1994 Expos--teams constructed with scouting, astute evaluation of talent, foresight and dumb luck, teams good enough to win before arbitration and free agency made the talent too expensive for their markets.

TV has changed the nature of the business. The superteams no longer have to be profit centers. Five years ago, a team needed luxury boxes to survive. These days you need a regional sports network to play with the big boys. Now it's the Yankees and MSG, or the Dodgers and Fox, or the Braves and Time Warner, or the Cubs and the Tribune Co., or the Angels and Disney.

The agents know where the money is. More than three quarters of the cash given to free agents in the offseason came from Los Angeles, Baltimore, Arizona, the Yankees, Anaheim, Texas, Atlanta and the Mets. Because they are smarter than baseball management, agents will continue to dominate. Scott Boras cracks the whip with J.D. Drew and amazes everyone with the Kevin Garnett-size contract he gets for Kevin Brown. This isn't a good era for baseball executives. Brown signs with Los Angeles for $105 million for seven years even though there were reportedly no other offers higher than Colorado's $81 million, six-year bid. The Mariners give Jose Mesa a two-year, $6.5 million deal, while the only other reported offer was San Francisco's $3.6 million, two-year bid.

How much higher can salaries go? They haven't yet attained Hollywood levels. Six years ago, Barry Bonds' $44 million contract shocked people. Maybe in a few years Kevin Brown's deal will look reasonable.

Can the game level the disparity? The luxury tax--the great achievement of the last strike--is a joke. Only five teams were taxed last year: The Orioles paid $3.1 million, Boston $2.2 million, the Yankees $684,000, Atlanta $496,000 and Los Angeles $50,000. Montreal reportedly pocketed the money it received and showed a profit.

Baseball can let the market run its course. Have a franchise or two go bankrupt. Let there be relocations from Montreal to Virginia or Minnesota to Charlotte. But there aren't many good markets left. The owners can hope to continue to enlist even dumber new owners.

Unfortunately, the most likely adjustment will come in the form of a labor fix. Unable to restrain themselves from spending awesome amounts on middling talent, owners will ask someone to stop them before they kill again. So enjoy this golden era of baseball while it lasts. Inspired by the NBA's success in driving a salary cap, baseball owners will force a lockout when the basic agreement expires at the end of the 2001 season. That gives us three more seasons before we'll again be reading about Donald Fehr rather than Rusty Greer.

The smartest thing Bud Selig has done as commissioner has been to appoint Sandy Alderson as executive vice president of baseball operations. If we're lucky, Alderson will be commissioner someday. Things look bleak, but Alderson isn't bummed: "I'm not discouraged for one reason," he told Playboy. "For years disparity was discussed in terms of economic loss and never really got to the question of competitiveness. Not many people want to hear about economic issues. But people do care about whether their team wins or loses. We've gotten to the crux of the matter: the inability of clubs to compete on the field. That's encouraging, because we've stripped away all the rhetoric and we're looking at the reality of what this system has created."

• September 12: The Phillies trounce the Pirates 13-4 in Veterans Stadium. Philadelphia took a 10-0 lead before making an out in the fourth. In the fifth, Phillies center fielder Doug Glanville was called out by umpire Brian Gibbons on a close play at first. Immediately after the out, the Phillies' in-game entertainment department played Foreigner's Double Vision over the stadium speakers. When the half-inning ended, crew chief Ed Montague went into the Phillies dugout and called Philadelphia GM Ed Wade in his private box, telling him he didn't care for such expressions of musical opinion. The Phan-o-Vision staff claimed they weren't mocking anybody--they played Double Vision because the next batter, Alex Arias, had already hit these doubles in the game.

Dugout: Joe Morgan

During the World Series, we turned down the TV sound and tuned in the ESPN radio broadcast so we could listen to Joe Morgan. The Hall of Famer has many irons in the fire. He's a member of a group trying to buy his hometown team, the Oakland Athletics, And, later this season, Morgan will release a new book, Long Balls, No Strikes: The Rise, Demise and Rise of Baseball (Crown). Morgan's intelligence and honesty make him an invaluable voice in baseball. We asked him a few questions in preparation for opening day.

Q: Do you think that 1998 was the greatest season ever?

A: It depends. Is baseball individual achievement, as we saw from Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Kerry Wood and Roger Clemens? Or is it team achievement? We really didn't have a pennant race, but we had a great team: the New York Yankees. I won't say it's the greatest, but, bouncing back after the strike, I'll say it was the most needed season ever.

Q: Can baseball top last season?

A: That's going to be almost impossible, unless we have several good pennant races. You can't think of anyone hitting 71 home runs or two guys hitting more than 60. There are people who are capable. Because of the way the game is now, with the ball being livelier and pitching not as consistent as you'd like, there's always that possibility.

Q: Are pitchers afraid to throw inside nowadays?

A: I don't think it's fear. It's something that has evolved. Pitchers allowed hitters to go out over the plate, so there's no safe area for pitchers. A lot of hitters dive into the plate or spin close enough to cover six inches off the outside corner. In order for pitchers to get back to where they belong, they'll have to come back inside. And that doesn't mean just inside corner, it means off the plate inside as well. Most hitters actually think outside first. Pitchers have to get them to think inside first, which opens up the outside.

Q: In an era of overblown statistics, why are there only a few dominant leadoff men?

A: It's a part of the evolution of baseball. The walk and the stolen base--getting on base--aren't considered to be nearly as important as hitting the ball out of the park. Strikeouts are up. Even with two strikes, batters swing hard. You have a lot of guys hitting ten or 15 home runs, which doesn't mean a lot. I see second basemen hitting ten home runs. But ten home runs mean nothing. Players give up other parts of their games to hit those home runs. Guys don't walk up to the plate thinking, I'm going to take at least two pitches to try to get on base. Rickey Henderson still does, but you're not going to get many guys coming into the league who take pitches and get themselves in the hole to try to get on base. It's hard for players to say the team comes first and statistics for arbitration come second. There's so much money involved, I can't blame them. You want to do as much as you can for your family.

Q: What impresses you most about players today?

A: Their willingness to stay in shape year-round. In the past, players would come to spring training to get in shape. Now they come to spring training ready to go. I watch Barry Bonds work out for two hours in his home gym, and it's a hard workout. I can only imagine what McGwire does.

Q: What impresses you least about players today?

A: Fundamentals. Few players can bunt, few players can hit-and-run, few players know situational hitting. If a man is at third base with less than two outs, you don't need a home run to drive him in, or even a base hit. You just need to get the ball in the air. You need to know how to move runners along. Fundamentals are the reason that you have 15-13 games. Mistakes cause three runs to score and bad pitches lead to a grand slam. A lot of players get to the major leagues before they're ready, and they're not playing the game the way it should be played.

Q: Is that because they don't know the game, especially its history?

A: I've walked through the Giants locker room with Willie Mays, and nobody recognized him. I mean, Willie Mays! The greatest player ever! I mentioned it to Dusty Baker and he said that's just how players are today. When I was playing and Stan Musial would come into the locker room, I'd be nervous.

Q: Which young players do you like today?

A: Vladimir Guerrero is probably the most talented of the young players. He can run, hit, throw--he can do everything. On the pitching side, of course, you have Kerry Wood, who has J.R. Richard-type stuff. I hope he'll stay healthy and be able to do the things J.R. would have done if he had stayed healthy.