Playboy's Pro Football Forecast

Jerry Jones yearns for the days of yore when his Cowboys were winning Super Bowls and Dallas was the center of the football universe. Back then the NFL cherished its dynasties.

Jones purchased the Cowboys in 1989 and, playing by rules he inherited, built one of the deepest, fastest, youngest champions in NFL history. His Cowboys became the first team in history to win three Super Bowls in four years (1992--1995). They went to four consecutive NFC title games and won five consecutive Eastern Division titles. Jones may well have built the greatest team in NFL history.

But we'll never know: The NFL changed the rules on Jones. Free agency arrived in 1993, the salary cap in 1994, and dynasties disappeared in 1996 after the Cowboys won that third Super Bowl.

"I believe if free agency hadn't come in, Dallas might have won four or five Super Bowls in a row," Denver coach Mike Shanahan says. "Free agency broke up a young, very talented football team."

The salary cap prevents teams from assembling a cavalcade of stars like Jones displayed in Dallas with Troy Aikman. Emmitt Smith, Michael Iryin, Larry Allen, Charles Haley and Deion Sanders. The salary cap limits spending by each team, so all 53 of your players can't become multimillionaires. Spending limitations plus free agency allow players who can't command superstar money from one team to get it from another. The Cowboys have lost almost 50 players in free agency since the window opened in 1993, including 13 who started Super Bowls.

The current system does not allow the good teams to stay good. It's designed to tear down the strong and build up the weak. So say good-bye to dynasties and hello to parity. Winning has never been more difficult for the Cowboys, 49ers and Bills--teams that dominated the NFL in the days before salary caps and free agency.

"It's like trying to catch a big fish on a small test line," Jones says.

What has parity wrought? In the past three years, six Super Bowl berths have been up for grabs. Five different teams have grabbed them. Only the Denver Broncos have doubled up. Eighteen division titles have been up for grabs. Seventeen teams have grabbed them. Only Jacksonville has won twice. Everyone in the AFC East has won a division title since the arrival of the salary cap. In today's NFL you can rebuild in one year, so there are no longer any favorites.

The St. Louis Rams couldn't muster a winning season from 1990 through 1998. They lost 99 games and finished in last place in the NFC West six times. But the Rams staged a worst-to-first transformation in 1999, bolting from a 4--12 record in 1998 to 13--3 and an NFL championship. The Indianapolis Colts orchestrated a worst-to-first turnaround in the AFC East, going from 3--13 in 1998 to 13--3 in 1999. The Tennessee Titans went five years in a row without a winning season, from 1994 to 1998. Last January they found themselves 13--3 and in the Super Bowl.

The draft also conspires for parity. Bad teams are rewarded with higher draft picks, which translate into better players. All those atrocious seasons in the Nineties gave the Rams premium draft choices. They picked in the top 10 eight times, and five of those selections--Kevin Carter, Torry Holt, Todd Lyght, Orlando Pace and Grant Wistrom--started in the Super Bowl. Compare that with the Bills, who didn't have a single top 10 pick in the Nineties, and the Cowboys and 49ers, who had two apiece.

So when you go looking for preseason favorites each season, forget about the winners. Study the losers. In today's NFL, winners don't stay winners and losers don't stay losers.

NFC East

The last time expectations soared to these heights in the nation's capital was 1992. The Washington Redskins were coming off a Super Bowl championship and fully expected to repeat. But they couldn't even repeat as division champs. One stadium, two coaches and five quarterbacks later, their Super Bowl visions are back.

Norv Turner finally delivered what he promised when he was hired as head coach in 1994--an offense that (continued on page 144)Football(continued from page 112) would make Joe Theismann, Riggo and the Hogs proud. The Redskins finished second in the NFL in both yards and points in 1999, winning the first division title of the Turner era. Stephen Davis led the NFC in rushing, and Brad Johnson matured into a Pro Bowl quarterback. But obscured by that divisional success was the fact that the Redskins couldn't play defense. They finished 30th in the NFL on that side of the ball. Only the first-year Cleveland Browns provided less resistance in 1999. That will change in 2000.

The Redskins dug into the deep pockets of owner Daniel Snyder and purchased three defensive cornerstones in free agency--end Bruce Smith, cornerback Deion Sanders and safety Mark Carrier. Smith ranks second in NFL history in sacks and has been voted to 11 Pro Bowls. Sanders has been to eight Pro Bowls and Carrier is a three-time selection with 31 career interceptions. Trades also landed the Redskins the second and third overall picks of the 2000 NFL draft, and they cashed them in for college football's premiere defensive playmaker (Butkus Award-winning linebacker LaVar Arrington) and best blocker (Outland Trophy-winning left tackle Chris Samuels).

The Redskins now have eight past and present first-round draft picks on defense: Smith, Carrier, Arrington, corner-backs Darrell Green and Champ Bailey and linemen Dana Stubblefield, Dan Wilkinson and Marco Coleman. Smith, Green and Stubblefield have all started in Super Bowls, and both Smith and Stubblefield captured NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors in the Nineties. The Redskins now have the potential to play defense as well as they do offense. That gives them championship aspirations, so the bandwagon rumbling down Pennsylvania Avenue these days is packed.

"You usually don't see this kind of excitement for a season unless you're coming off a Super Bowl," Turner says. "A lot of this is media talk and fan talk and it's fun. But it doesn't mean anything. No one wins a playoff game in April. You don't do it in August and you don't do it in November.

"But what I like about our situation is that we have a large number of veterans who have been there. They know how difficult it is to get into the playoffs and to advance when you do get there."

Vince Lombardi learned his formula for football success as an assistant coach with the New York Giants in the Fifties. Decades later, the Giants still subscribe to that formula--run the ball and play defense. They did neither particularly well in 1999 on the way to a 7--9 finish, so they recast the lineup for 2000. They brought in a couple of big new blockers, veterans Dusty Zeigler and Glenn Parker, and a new ball carrier in Heisman Trophy winner Ron Dayne. At 260 pounds, Dayne is a sledgehammer in cleats. New York also drafted a 300-pound lineman (Cornelius Griffin) for the run defense and signed linebacker Michael Barrow for the pass rush. If the Giants can squeeze 16 games out of cornerback Jason Sehorn, a wild-card playoff berth could be theirs.

The Cardinals couldn't stop the run in 1999, which spelled disaster in a division where three other teams had 1000-yard rushers. Not once in 16 games was Arizona able to line up its defensive front of choice: ends Simeon Rice and Andre Wadsworth and tackles Eric Swann and Mark Smith. Only Rice stayed healthy, and he managed 16-1/2 sacks and a Pro Bowl invitation. The other three missed a combined 24 games because of injury. So the Cardinals drafted three wide bodies--defensive tackles Darwin Walker, Mao Tosi and Jabari Issa--to fix that depth problem. They also claimed the draft's best running back, Thomas Jones of Virginia, to give Jake Plummer some help on offense.

The stars are gone and so is the identity of the Cowboys as a Super Bowl contender. A neck injury ended Michael Irvin's career in 1999 and Deion Sanders became a salary-cap casualty. Dallas absorbed its annual hit in free agency, losing another three starters. Chan Gailey took the Cowboys to the playoffs in both of his seasons as head coach, but an 8--8 finish in 1999 finally cost him his job. Defensive coordinator Dave Campo is the new head man, but any hope the Cowboys have in 2000 rests with the arm of Troy Aikman and the legs of Emmitt Smith, who are both in their 30s.

The Eagles are the NFC East team with a future. Two solid drafts have given Philadelphia the nucleus of a contending team that just needs time to mature. The Eagles won only five games last season, but two of them came against division champions St. Louis and Washington. Running back Duce Staley gives the Eagles a chance on offense, while cornerbacks Bobby Taylor and Troy Vincent give them a chance on defense. But the development of second-year quarterback Donovan McNabb remains the key.

NFC Central

Coaching in the Pro Bowl was an enlightening experience for Tony Dungy. It was his reward for taking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the NFC championship game, where they lost to the St. Louis Rams. So Dungy spent a week in Hawaii watching NFC Pro Bowl receivers Randy Moss, Cris Carter and Muhsin Muhammad catch balls in practice.

"The Terry Glenns and Joey Galloways are impressive," Dungy says. "But when you're around Carter and Moss, Muhammad and Keyshawn Johnson--all those big guys, all over there at one time--I realized that was an element that was really lacking for us.

"The Pro Bowl was an eye-opener. We've had to defend those guys over the years. But all of a sudden to have them on your team, to be able to throw up a couple of balls to them, to watch the effect they had on the DBs. We just never had a guy like that before."

Moss, Carter, Muhammad and Johnson all stand 6'2" or taller. The Bucs were trying to win championships with relative smurfs on the flank in 5'9" Jacquez Green, 5'10" Bert Emanuel and 5'11" Reidel Anthony. So Dungy made his off-season quest a big receiver who could bully cornerbacks and make that game-breaking catch. He found him in April when the Buccaneers traded two first-round draft picks to the Jets for Johnson.

The Tampa Bay defense is already championship caliber, with Pro Bowl players at all three levels--Warren Sapp up front, Derrick Brooks at linebacker and John Lynch in the secondary. The Bucs finished third in the NFL in defense, then held the league's two most explosive offenses, Washington and St. Louis, to a touchdown apiece in playoff games.

But the Bucs were just the opposite of the Redskins--all defense, no offense. Tampa Bay averaged less than 300 yards and 17 points per game. So the Bucs started an off-season overhaul by firing offensive coordinator Mike Shula. Then they traded for Johnson and signed away veteran Pro Bowl blockers Jeff Christy and Randall McDaniel from the Minnesota Vikings in free agency. Suddenly, the Bucs have an identity on offense.

"These guys are used to winning," Dungy says. "They're used to being very good on offense. They're not used to being mediocre."

The Bucs already had a Pro Bowl backfield in Mike Alstott and Warrick Dunn. The blocking of Christy and McDaniel will make them better runners. The presence of Johnson on the flank gives the Bucs a possession receiver to complement the speed of Anthony and Green. That veteran cast should take the pressure off quarterback Shaun King, who is entering his first full season as a starter. Tampa Bay's days of offensive mediocrity may be over.

The Bears could be the NFC's top candidate for that worst-to-first transformation in 2000. This is a young team with only two opening-day starters in their 30s. Chicago endured the mistakes and errors of a rookie quarterback last season when Coach Dick Jauron put Cade McNown on the field. The Bears still finished third in the NFL in passing. Now McNown is a year smarter and a year better. The Bears needed defensive help, so they used their number one draft pick on linebacker Brian Urlacher and signed a pair of starters off playoff teams in free agency, end Phillip Daniels (Seattle) and cornerback Thomas Smith (Buffalo).

The Lions are moving on without Barry Sanders, luring halfback James Stewart away from Jacksonville in free agency with a five-year, $25 million contract. Stewart will have two huge new blockers in Aaron Gibson and Stockar McDougle. Gibson was a number one pick in 1999 but didn't play a down as a rookie because of a summer shoulder injury. McDougle was a number one pick in 2000. Gibson goes 380 pounds and McDougle 361. Sanders may want to rethink his retirement with those two hulks in the Detroit huddle. They also should help keep quarterback Charlie Batch upright and healthy. He missed six starts in 1999 with injuries. The Lions have the potential to have the best offense in the division.

The Packers hired Ray Rhodes as head coach in 1999 to toughen up their defense. But that defense regressed, and so did the offense. Green Bay missed the playoffs for the first time in seven years, and Brett Favre had his worst season since 1993, throwing more interceptions (23) than touchdowns (22). So the Packers fired Rhodes and rehired Mike Sherman to fix Favre. Sherman spent two years as an offensive assistant on Mike Holmgren's Green Bay staff in 1997--1998. General manager Ron Wolf took a few more stabs at toughening up his defense by signing former Pro Bowl defensive tackle Russell Maryland and drafting Steve Warren.

You won't recognize the Vikings in 2000. This isn't the same team that has strung together four consecutive playoff appearances. Sure, Randy Moss and Cris Carter are still there. But coach Dennis Green has replaced his offensive and defensive coordinators from the 10--6 team of a year ago, bringing in Sherman Lewis and Emmitt Thomas from Green Bay. On the field, salary-cap-squeezed Minnesota lost six starters, including two Pro Bowl blockers, their best cornerback (Jimmy Hitchcock) and a nine-sack chunk of their pass rush (Duane Clemons). But the biggest loss is quarterback Jeff George. That leaves the Minnesota offense in the hands of Daunte Culpepper, who has yet to throw his first NFL pass.

NFC West

The NFL doesn't expand again until 2002, when Houston rejoins the circuit. But the Saints will have the fresh new look of an expansion franchise in 2000. After nearly a decade of stumbling around in gridiron darkness, culminated by an NFC-worst 3--13 finish in 1999, owner Tom Benson decided to start over. He fired general manager Bill Kuharich, coach Mike Ditka, quarterback Billy Joe Hobert and many more of the players who lost 46 games for him over the past four years.

Benson brought in Randy Mueller as general manager and Jim Haslett as coach. He then began writing checks and signing bonuses that lured NFL veterans Jeff Blake, Jake Reed, Andrew Glover, Steve Israel, Norman Hand, Charlie Clemons, Joe Horn, Fred Thomas, Chris Oldham and Toby Gowin to New Orleans in free agency. Blake will throw passes for the Saints and Reed, Glover and Horn will catch them. Hand, Clemons, Israel, Thomas and Oldham are all tacklers, and Gowin is a punter.

But one element will not change from 1999 to 2000--the reliance on former Heisman Trophy winner Ricky Williams. Ditka traded his entire 1999 draft plus two high picks in 2000 for the right to select the NCAA's all-time leading rusher. Then the Saints snookered Williams in contract negotiations, signing him to a seven-year, incentive-laden deal that gave him the chance to earn millions more each season. But he flopped his rookie year, cashing only one of his 26 incentive clauses during an injury-riddled season. His frustration bubbled over in the off-season when he criticized the Saints and New Orleans and fired his agent. That earned Williams an early visit to the principal's office, where Haslett gave him a four-word lecture: Shut up and play.

"He knows he made a mistake," Haslett says. "It was a bad contract. But just because he made a mistake doesn't mean everyone else has to live with it. I think the best thing for him to do is come in, keep his mouth shut and play football. Show everyone--his teammates and the world--he's a good player."

Haslett may not have liked what he heard from Williams, but he certainly liked what he saw--a runner who gained nearly 1000 yards despite injuries that forced him to miss four games and leave three others early.

"He played only nine full games and still gained 900 yards," Haslett says. "What happens when he's healthy and plays a full 16 games? I watched his tapes. The things he did in college--his best running plays--they didn't do that here. He's not an outside runner. He needs to run downhill, to run people over. That's what we're going to do with him a little bit more than they did last year."

So the Saints are the X factor in the West this season. If St. Louis can vault from worst to first in this division, why not the Saints?

The Rams are finding out it's harder to stay on top than it was to get there. Suddenly everyone wants your players. Two blockers in the NFL's best offense left St. Louis in free agency when center Mike Gruttadauria signed with Arizona and tackle Fred Miller with Tennessee. The Rams play a first-place schedule this season, which means the Clevelands, Detroits and Baltimores on last year's schedule have been replaced by the Denvers, Tampa Bays and Washingtons. The retirement of Dick Vermeil also forces the Rams to break in a new coaching staff led by Mike Martz. But NFL and Super Bowl MVP Kurt Warner returns--and he alone makes the Rams one of the favorites in the NFC.

There is very little the Panthers did right under George Seifert in his first season as head coach. But Carolina could throw the football--and that overcame deficiencies in the running game and on defense, carrying the Panthers to a .500 finish. At 34, Steve Beuerlein threw a career-high 36 touchdown passes and went to his first Pro Bowl. Wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad (96 catches, 1253 yards) and tight end Wesley Walls (63 catches, 12 touchdowns) went to Hawaii with him, and wideout Patrick Jeffers also managed a 1000-yard, 12-touchdown season. But the Panthers must play better defense to contend, which is why they drafted cornerback Rashard Anderson and signed end Chuck Smith, linebacker Lee Woodall and cornerback Jimmy Hitchcock in free agency.

The Falcons won 11 fewer games in 1999 than they did in 1998 on the way to their first Super Bowl. Blame an offensive collapse on injuries to two 1998 Pro Bowlers, halfback Jamal Anderson and quarterback Chris Chandler. Anderson suffered a season-ending knee injury in the second week, and Chandler missed four games with hamstring, rib and shoulder injuries. They both have their health back in 2000. What the Falcons don't have is much of a pass rush, having lost 15-1/2 sacks with the defections of ends Chuck Smith and Lester Archambeau in free agency.

The 49ers, for the first time in almost two decades, are in rebuilding mode. San Francisco began preparing for life after Steve Young by drafting Giovanni Carmazzi and Tim Rattay last April--the first time the club has taken two quarterbacks in a draft since 1967. General manager Bill Walsh also drafted four other players he hopes can start for one of the NFL's worst defenses: linebacker Julian Peterson, cornerbacks Ahmed Plummer and Jason Webster and defensive end John Engelberger.

AFC East

The great ones don't wait long. Dan Marino went to the Super Bowl in his second season and Joe Montana went in his third. John Elway and Troy Aikman both went to Super Bowls in their fourth seasons. Peyton Manning's clock is at two years and ticking.

Manning inherited a woeful 3--13 team when he became the first overall pick of the 1998 draft by the Indianapolis Colts. It took him just two seasons to reverse that record. His rookie year was humbling. Manning threw a league-high 28 interceptions and lost more games in one pro season (13) than he lost in four years of college ball at Tennessee (6). But he showed savvy beyond his years in 1999. He threw for 4000 yards, won his first AFC passing title and quarterbacked the Colts to 13 victories and a division title.

"He's going to get better," Colts coach Jim Mora says. "Will you see the improvement from his second to third year that you did first to second? Probably not. But you will see improvement: in judgment, decision making, feeling more comfortable in game situations. The more you play, the more the game slows down for you."

The one disappointment that Manning suffered in 1999 was his NFL playoff debut, a 19--16 home loss to the wild-card Tennessee Titans. He looked every bit the young quarterback making his first postseason start that day, completing only 19 of 43 passes with no touchdowns.

"He'll handle his next playoff game better," Mora says. "I feel very lucky, very fortunate that we've got that guy. You just hope he can stay healthy. We have to keep putting good players around him."

The Colts put a great player in the backfield with him in 1999 when they drafted running back Edgerrin James. He led the NFL in rushing and scored 17 touchdowns on his way to Rookie of the Year honors. Manning and James provided a dynamic playmaking combination that thrust the Colts into the NFL's top five in offense for the first time since the Bert Jones era in the Seventies.

To take that next step from division champion to conference champ, the Colts must improve on defense. They finished 18th against the run and 19th against the pass last year. So general manager Bill Polian used his first three draft selections in April on defenders. Linebackers Rob Morris and Marcus Washington, the top two picks, should make the Colts bigger against the run, and third-round cornerback David Macklin ought to make them faster against the pass. How quickly they develop as NFL defenders will determine how deeply the Colts play into January.

Buffalo authored one of the greatest decades in football history in the Nineties, winning 103 games and appearing in four Super Bowls. Only one AFC team ever won more games in a decade (the Seventies Miami Dolphins) and only one NFL team went to more Super Bowls (the Seventies Dallas Cowboys). The Bills officially said goodbye to the Nineties in February when they released Bruce Smith, Thurman Thomas and Andre Reed, Pro Bowl cornerstones on Buffalo teams that won four consecutive AFC championships from 1990 to 1993. Three other starters also left in free agency from a team that went 11-5 a year ago. But no team handles turnover better than the Bills. Rob Johnson takes over for Doug Flutie at quarterback, and enough players return from the NFL's top-rated defense to continue the chase in 2000.

The Jets saw their Super Bowl express derailed in 1999 when quarterback Vinny Testaverde ruptured his Achilles tendon in the season opener, ending his season. He's back in 2000, but coach Bill Parcells isn't. Neither is defensive guru Bill Belichick. Parcells moved upstairs and Belichick out of the building, up the coast to New England as head coach. New York's 8--8 finish in 1999 was a tribute to great coaching, and now the great coaches are gone. Parcells turned the job over to Al Groh after Belichick turned it down. Pro Bowl wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson wanted out, and Parcells accommodated him by trading him to Tampa Bay. These Jets lack the talent and sideline aura of the team that reached the AFC title game in 1998.

If Jimmy Johnson and Dan Marino couldn't deliver the Dolphins a Super Bowl, what chance does the combination of Dave Wannstedt and Damon Huard have? Johnson retired as head coach of Miami shortly after a humiliating 62--7 playoff loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in January. Marino retired a month later. A decades-old problem that was handed down from Don Shula to Jimmy Johnson has now been passed on to Wannstedt--the Dolphins can't run the ball. Without Marino, they'll have problems throwing it too. At least Wannstedt has a top five defense.

The Patriots have a franchise quarterback in Drew Bledsoe and an ace defensive troubleshooter in Belichick. But Bledsoe won't recognize many faces in the huddle. Six starters are gone from last season, including veteran Pro Bowlers Bruce Armstrong and Ben Coates. New England didn't have a first-round draft pick to address any of those offensive holes, sending it to the Jets as compensation for the signing of Belichick. The talent is on the defensive side of the ball, where Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, Chris Slade, Ted Johnson and Willie McGinest made the Patriots a top 10 unit in 1999. They can be even better in 2000 under Belichick's direction.

AFC Central

The Jacksonville Jaguars may have been the best team in the NFL in 1999, but a failure to handle division rival Tennessee prevented them from proving it. The Jaguars beat everyone they played last season except the Titans, finishing 15--3 with all three of the losses to Tennessee. The third loss was the crusher. Jacksonville blew a 14--10 halftime lead on its home field in the AFC title game, losing 33--14 to saddle the greatest season in franchise history with a bitter conclusion. That gave Jaguars coach Tom Coughlin a whiff of reality--the hunter is now the hunted.

"When we came into the league in 1995, the team we had to beat was Pittsburgh," Coughlin says. "So that's what we set our sights on. In the meantime, there were teams setting their sights on us. Now we're going to have to broaden our base."

There's not much to fix on this Jacksonville team. Defensively, the Jaguars allowed the fewest points in the NFL last season and sent three players to the Pro Bowl: end Tony Brackens, linebacker Kevin Hardy and safety Carnell Lake. Offensively, the Jaguars finished in the top 10 in both yards and points despite a minimal contribution from star running back Fred Taylor, who missed six games and parts of four others because of a hamstring injury. Jacksonville sent four players to the Pro Bowl on that side of the ball: tackles Tony Boselli and Leon Searcy, quarterback Mark Brunell and wide receiver Jimmy Smith.

So the Jaguars spent the off-season studying the tapes of those three losses against the Titans. Figure out Tennessee, and Jacksonville can solve its Super Bowl puzzle.

"We've done a lot of soul-searching," Coughlin says. "We have to play more physical. Our front has to be more powerful. That's our objective--be a stronger football team."

To stop Tennessee's Pro Bowl tailback Eddie George, the Jaguars lured Pro Bowl middle linebacker Hardy Nicker-son away from Tampa Bay. He was a premiere run defender on one of the NFL's best defenses in 1999 with 141 tackles. On offense, the Jaguars drafted a couple more 300-pound blockers, center Brad Meester and tackle Joey Chustz, to better handle that deep, mobile front of the Titans.

"Tennessee's a good football team," Coughlin says. "So are we."

The Titans moved into Adelphia Coliseum in 1999 and obviously liked the new surroundings. Tennessee was the only team in the AFC to go unbeaten at home, winning all nine of its games. The Titans also beat Indianapolis and Jacksonville on the road in the playoffs and came within a yard of forcing an overtime in the Super Bowl when wide receiver Kevin Dyson was stopped just short of the St. Louis goal line by Rams linebacker Mike Jones on the game's final play. The Titans did some off-season tinkering on defense, signing free agent Randall Godfrey away from the Cowboys and drafting Keith Bulluck in the first round to upgrade the linebacker play.

Jacksonville shouldn't become too obsessed with Tennessee, because Baltimore might pass them both in the AFC Central. The Ravens finished second in the NFL in defense last season with a blend of young (Peter Boulware, Chris McAlister) and old (Rod Woodson, Tony Siragusa). But coach Brian Billick needed to dramatically upgrade his offense and did so by signing Pro Bowl tight end Shannon Sharpe in free agency and drafting Tennessee running back Jamal Lewis and Florida wide receiver Travis Taylor with his two top 10 picks last April. Suddenly the Ravens have play-makers. Suddenly they are a playoff contender.

The Steelers had the opportunity to draft Marshall gunner Chad Pennington last April and start over at quarterback. But coach Bill Cowher decided to give Kordell Stewart one more chance, electing to upgrade the weapons around him by drafting elite college receivers Plaxico Burress and Danny Farmer. They join Troy Edwards, last year's number one draft pick, on the flank. If Stewart can't get the ball to these guys, he'll be playing wide receiver for another NFL team in 2001.

The Cincinnati Bengals found their quarterback of the future in 1999 when they drafted Akili Smith with the third overall pick. Then they landed a play-maker in the 2000 draft when they snared Florida State wide receiver Peter Warrick with the fourth overall pick. So the Bengals are certain to be more entertaining. But can they be more successful? They haven't had a winning season since 1990 and haven't played any defense since the Eighties.

Pro football returned to Cleveland in 1999. Well, not really. The Browns didn't win a game at home all season. They were the worst team in the NFL and saved their very worst football for the home folks, being outscored 238--113 on the banks of Lake Erie. This team is light-years away from being competitive with Cincinnati, much less the rest of the AFC Central. The Browns do have excellent young players in quarterback Tim Couch, wide receiver Kevin Johnson and defensive end Courtney Brown. They just don't have enough of them. Don't expect a worst-to-first transformation in Cleveland any decade soon.

AFC West

Quarterbacking had never been a problem in the AFC West. Len Dawson and Dan Fouts spent Hall of Fame careers in this division. So did future Hall of Famer John Elway. Ken Stabler and Dave Krieg spent the bulk of their careers here, and Joe Montana and Warren Moon made cameo appearances in the Nineties. The AFC West always could throw the ball with the best of them. Until 1999. Elway retired, and suddenly there was a void of quality quarterbacking in the division.

That was reflected in the standings. Seattle won the AFC West with lightly regarded Jon Kitna at the helm, but the Seahawks lost five of their last six games and backed into the playoffs with a 9--7 record. Elvis Grbac also generated nine victories at Kansas City--but the Chiefs lost their last two games to miss out on the postseason. Denver coach Mike Shanahan thought young Brian Griese could pick up where John Elway left off. He was wrong. Griese won only four of his 13 starts. Both Oakland and San Diego started aging journeymen, 34-year-old Rich Gannon for the Raiders and 36-year-old Jim Harbaugh for the Chargers. There was nary an Elway or Fouts in the bunch.

That cast of quarterbacks returns intact in 2000. Which is why Chiefs coach Gunther Cunningham is confident his team can return to the playoffs after a two-year absence. He feels he has the best quarterback in the division in Grbac, who turned in a full season in 1999 for the first time in his seven-year career. He also topped 3000 yards passing and 20 touchdowns for the first time despite just one reliable weapon, Pro Bowl tight end Tony Gonzalez.

"I want to see Elvis deal the ball more," Cunningham says. "He needs to go for the home run. There were times last year I felt he should have thrown it up more. So I told him, 'We're going to get you some firepower.'"

That firepower came in the first round of the draft, where the Chiefs found Jackson State's Sylvester Morris, one of the greatest receivers in the history of the SWAC. He's 6'3", 206 pounds, has sprinter speed and averaged almost 19 yards per catch in college. The last time the Chiefs reached the Super Bowl, in 1969, they started two other big, fast receivers from the SWAC: Otis Taylor (Prairie View) and Frank Pitts (Southern). There's another similarity between the 1969 and the 2000 Chiefs--a Big Tenner at quarterback. Dawson was from Purdue, Grbac from Michigan.

Gannon was the best quarterback in the division in 1999, passing for a career-best 3800 yards on the way to his first Pro Bowl. But he was Grbac's backup at Kansas City in 1998. His top weapon is wide receiver Tim Brown, but Brown is 34. The Raiders had a chance to upgrade their receiving corps in the draft but passed up on Morris to select kicker Sebastian Janikowski with their number one pick. Oakland also took punter Shane Lechler in the fifth round. Janikowski and Lechler will help repair the Raiders' special teams, which were dreadful in 1999. But a team that hasn't been to the playoffs in six years needs more help than two kickers.

The slide of the Denver Broncos from Super Bowl champion right out of the playoffs involved more than the retirement of Elway. The Broncos still had a fighting chance to repeat--until NFL rushing champion Terrell Davis shredded the ligaments in his right knee in early October. He missed the final 12 games. Two other Pro Bowl Broncos, linebacker John Mobley and tight end Shannon Sharpe, missed a combined 25 games with other injuries. That bad luck has already spilled into 2000: Veteran Pro Bowl cornerback Dale Carter has been suspended for the season for violating the league's substance abuse policy. So Denver drafted Cal's Deltha O'Neal in the first round to replace him. If Davis can return to his 1998 form, when he was the best player in the NFL, the Broncos should at least contend for a playoff spot.

Mike Riley should have received greater consideration for NFL Coach of the Year honors than he did after coaxing the dormant Chargers to a .500 finish. This team is not very talented, or at least it wasn't in 1999. But San Diego landed the best safety in the 2000 draft in Marshall's Rogers Beckett and also signed a pair of free-agent gems in cornerback DeRon Jenkins and wide receiver Curtis Conway. The Chargers need to keep Harbaugh healthy, and either Robert Chancey or Jermaine Fazande must develop into a 20-carry-per-game back for San Diego to challenge for a playoff spot in 2000.

The Seahawks took huge hits last off-season, losing eight starters. Offensively, Seattle lost the right side of their line when center Kevin Glover and guard Brian Habib were released and tackle Grant Williams jumped to New England in free agency. Defensively, the Seahawks lost top pass rusher Phillip Daniels, who had nine sacks. But coach Mike Holmgren did not seem bothered by the mass exodus. After all, his offense and defense both ranked 23rd in the NFL last season. The Seahawks may have been division champions, but they were hardly a playoff contender. "We have a plan," Holmgren said. "I know what kind of team I want, who I want. If we lost somebody in free agency, maybe that was the way it was supposed to be."

Playboy's Picks

The great ones don't wait long. Peyton Manning's clock is at two years and ticking.