Baseball 2001

Baseball isn't broke, no matter what you've heard. Last season began on March 29 in Tokyo and ended on October 26 in Queens. In between, one game featured 23 walks and another saw a team steal 10 bases and lose. Moths invaded Busch Stadium and flying ants swarmed Comerica Park. For the first time in the game's history, no team finished with a winning percentage as high as .600 or as low as .400. This season began in San Juan on April 1 and will end, we think, in New York again, sometimes this fall. But what happens in between is what matters. A season plays out over six months, but a team's fortunes can change in the time it takes a ground ball to get through the infield. Last year, the Yankees were on the ropes until Seattle left fielder Al Martin dropped Tino Martinez' liner in the eighth inning of game two of the league championship series. New York, which had lost 15 of its final 18 regular season games, had gone 21 postseason innings without scoring. The Yanks were zombies, six outs away from flying to Seattle down 0 and 2. But Martin's inability to make the catch broke the Mariners' spell. The Yankees remembered who they were and started to hit.

Here's betting there won't be a strike after the collective bargaining agreement expires on Halloween. There's too much money and leverage at stake. Thanks to lucrative cable and broadcast deals, revenues have doubled for major league baseball in the past five years. There may be a lockout after this season, but it won't last. The owners won't be able to control themselves this time either.

Internationalization has been a godsend. It's common to see players from South America, Asia and Australia. Seattle right fielder Ichiro Suzuki becomes the first Japanese position player to make the jump to the starting lineup, joining Japanese stars such as Anaheim's Shigetoshi Hasegawa and Seattle's rookie of the year, 33-year-old Kazuhiro Sasaki. Just wait until we start to see players from Russia.

There's more good news: Even though the 2000 season ranked as the fourth highest scoring season ever, the pachinko-like offense mysteriously slowed after the All Star break. For the first time in three years, no one hit 60 home runs. A higher strike zone promises to speed games and help pitchers. This year's unbalanced schedule should make for even better pennant races. There's momentum from the commissioner's office to address competitive balance with a draft and meaningful revenue sharing. Perhaps best of all, fake grass is fading--only three ballparks still have Astroturf this season. Now if With upstart teams and tight wild card races, 2000 was great for the game. This year will feature even more surprises. Clockwise, from top right: An April 22 donnybrook between the Tigers and the White Sox--the fiercest brawl in years--began when Chicago starter Jim Parque, retaliating for an earlier hit batsman, plunked Dean Palmer. Frank Robinson, baseball's VP of on-field operations, suspended 16 players, managers and coaches. But the fight unified the Sox and convinced them that they were good enough to win. A fearsome hitter at the age of 25, Montreal Expos slugger Vladimir Guerrero (.345, 44 home runs, 123 runs batted in) is the best young hitter in the game. He'll again lead an imperiled Quebec franchise. The Athletics clinched the American League West on the final day of the season. Hero Jason Giambi led a feisty Oakland team that came close to upsetting the Yankees. At the age of 30 Giambi is the grizzled vet of the powerhouse A's. Three months after beaning Mets catcher Mike Piazza, Yankees pitcher Roger Clemens tossed part of a broken bat toward Piazza in the first inning of game two of the World Series. It was classic Manhattan melodrama. "I was just as confused and shocked as everybody," said Piazza. New Texas Rangers shortstop Alex Rodriguez is understandably happy as he tries on his new $252 million hat at the press conference announcing his signing. Some baseball owners were outraged, but Rodriguez will sweeten the Rangers' bottom line. St. Louis center fielder Jim Edmonds won plenty of games with his bat (42 homers and 108 RBI). He didn't catch this homer off the bat of Met Todd Pratt, but he was brilliant in the field. The acquisition of Edmonds from the Angels was key to St. Louis' success. San Francisco second baseman Jeff Kent--whose offensive numbers are comparable to Rogers Hornsby's--was deservedly honored as the National League's MVP. we can only lose the drummers in the bleachers at Oakland.

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This year in the American League East, the Bronx Bombers should still beat the improved Bosox. Who cares if Tino Martinez, Scott Brosius and Paul O'Neill have a combined age of 105? (That's older than Don Zimmer!) The Yankees have formidable starting pitching and a strong bullpen. The White Sox figure for the wild card, but we think the Indians will make up for a disastrous 2000 with one last hurrah. The West has two great teams, but the loss of Alex Rodriguez slows the Mariners. The Athletics should prevail.

In the National League East the Mets will miss Mike Hampton and will have to settle for the wild card. With John Smoltz back, the Braves should win again--although the starting pitching is getting old. If the Cardinals get help from Matt Morris and Dustin Hermanson, they'll go a long way. Based on their pitching, the Giants will top the NL West again, but watch out for the Rockies. We think St. Louis will take the National League pennant, and the Yankees should win again in the AL, setting up a replay of the 1964 Series. Who'll win it all this time? How can you go against the Yankees? For sleepers, keep an eye on the Astros, Mariners and Expos. Who will be the AL MVP? Carlos Delgado. In the National League, we'll take Ken Griffey.

American League East

The Yankees showed their age last season, yet they can always afford to retool at the trading deadline. They were sixth in the league in runs but improved noticeably once David Justice arrived. Don't look for him to hit .305 this year, but Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada will do fine. The story, as usual, will be on the mound. Roger Clemens (13--8, 3.70) probably won't pitch as well, but Orlando Hernandez (12--13, 4.51), Ramiro Mendoza (7--4, 4.25) and Andy Pettitte (19--9, 4.35) should do better. And, just in case, there's free agent signee Mike Mussina, who brings six straight years of 200-plus innings to the Bronx. In the pen they'll miss Jeff Nelson, who returned to Seattle. Shortstop prospect Alfonso Soriano is no longer untouchable, so he could be traded for another arm. Last year, owner George Steinbrenner nixed a $118.5 million contract with Derek Jeter because he didn't want to pay the highest average salary. So Jeter waits a year and signs for $189 million, costing Steinbren-ner an extra $70 million. The bench is so-so. The Bombers--fifth in wins in the AL--were lucky to get to the Series. Last postseason, if Mark Mulder doesn't hurt his back and Terrence Long doesn't lose a ball in center, the Athletics eliminate the Yankees. They may not be so fortunate this time around, but if they make it to the postseason, look for them to get their fourth straight title. Joe Torre, who has managed circles around his postseason competition, isn't afraid to go against the book. He used Mariano Rivera for more than one inning, and pitched El Duque in relief. He has a remarkable feel for key moments in a game and knows that the postseason is different from the regular season.

Basic cable prices in New England will go up a couple of bucks to cover Manny Ramirez' salary. You'll pay $40 to sit in the grandstands at Fenway. But who's counting? The Red Sox now (continued on page 132)Baseball 2001(continued from page 124) have a murderers' row. Ramirez, who has driven in 432 runs in his last 415 games, has had a tough time hitting in Fenway. (His lifetime stats there: .278, five homers in 133 at bats.) Boston had the best pitching in the American League in 2000 but only the 12th best offense (even with Nomar Garciaparra and feisty Carl Everett). The defense wasn't great, either--the team allowed a major-league-high 26 passed balls. As improved as the offense is, there will be holes at second, third and left. Boston left way too many runners on base, and couldn't hit home runs in the Fens. Will opposing teams be able to pitch around Nomar, Carl and Manny? To bolster the starting pitching behind Pedro and Rolando Arrojo, general manager Dan Duquette signed free agents Frank Castillo, Hideo Nomo and David Cone. He'd also like to pry Pedro Astacio from the Rockies. Failing that, To-mokazu Ohka (3--6, 3.12 in 12 starts) could fit the bill. Boston has a chance if Jose Offerman comes back and Pedro and the big three stay healthy.

It's a familiar refrain: Pitching kept Toronto out of the postseason. The Blue Jays hit a club record 244 home runs last year, best in the AL. But they had a 5.14 earned run average, tenth in the league. The heralded young arms--Chris Carpenter, Kelvim Escobar, Roy Halladay--all regressed. The Jays ended their bang-up season with a whimper, losing eight of their last 10 to finish four and a half games behind the Yankees. Manager Jim Fregosi was canned and Buck Martinez was persuaded to migrate to the dugout from the broadcast booth. Trading David Wells for 30-year-old Mike Sirotka (15--10, 3.79 for the Chisox) would have been a great deal if Sirotka were healthy. With plenty of other starting pitchers (Carpenter, Halladay, Steve Parris, Joey Hamilton, Esteban Loaiza and Jason Dickson), GM Gord Ash can trade an arm for infield help. It's an impressive lineup with Carlos Delgado (.344, 41 HRs, 137 RBI), Tony Batista (41 HRs, 114 RBI), Brad Fullmer (32 HRs, 104 RBI), Jose Cruz (31 HRs, second on team with 71 BB), Shannon Stewart and Raul Mondesi. Toronto resigned shortstop Alex Gonzalez (15 HRs, 69 RBI) to a four-year deal. Brian Simmons--who came over in the star-crossed David Wells deal--could start in center. If so, Vernon Wells can spend more time in AAA. If Wells makes the club, Cruz or Mondesi may be traded. In order to get the wild card, the Jays will have to take more walks, stabilize the starting pitching and hope Homer Bush rebounds at second base.

Orioles owner Peter Angelos has replaced George Steinbrenner as the blunderbuss owner of the big leagues. Faced with a team going nowhere, the meddlesome Angelos finally decided to clean house last July. He traded his opening day catcher, closer, first baseman, shortstop, left fielder and designated hitter. In return he got catcher Brook Fordyce, utility man Melvin Mora and a handful of prospects, including 27-year-old first baseman Chris Richard. Given a shot, Richard hit 13 homers in 56 games. So what does Angelos do? He signs 34-year-old David Segui (for $28 million) to play first, gives Pat Hentgen $9.6 million to pitch for two years and rehires 35-year-old shortstop Mike Bordick for two years at $9 million. Brady Anderson, 37, moves to right to spare Albert Belle, whose career may be jeopardized by an arthritic hip. The Orioles will miss Mike Mussina. Scott Erickson is probably out for the year with ligament-transplant surgery. Twenty-four-year-old Sidney Ponson (32 starts, 4.82 ERA) is a horse, and Jose Mercedes finally showed some moxie, going 11--3 with a 3.03 ERA after the break. Pitcher Jay Spurgeon went from A ball to the majors last year. And closer Ryan Kohlmeier (2.39 ERA, 13 saves) will be fun to watch. But can Chuck McElroy really be the fourth starter? The big question in Baltimore: Will this be Cal Ripken's final season?

Last year's plan to build around veteran sluggers (Vinny Castilla, Greg Vaughn, Fred McGriff) was a disaster for the Devil Rays. The team added almost $30 million in salaries and struggled to reach 69 wins. Injured pitchers Juan Guzman and Wilson Alvarez combined to pitch 1-2/3 innings for the season. This year, youth steps forward. In Ben Grieve, Aubrey Huff and Steve Cox, the Rays have three future stars. Manager Larry Rothschild might even start 20-year-old Josh Hamilton in the outfield. He'll eventually be joined by future outfield aces Carl Crawford and Kenny Kelly. But for now, there are holes to be filled. Tampa Bay had the AL's worst on-base percentage last year. Shortstop remains a problem, with Felix Martinez (who has the best range of any shortstop in the majors) hitting .214 and Ozzie Guillen hitting .243. The pen will be filled with the likes of Dan Wheeler, Travis Phelps and Doug Creek. And who will take over Roberto Hernandez' job as closer? Esteban Yan (7--8, 6.21, one for 10 in his career in converting saves) has been mentioned. But there's light in gloomy Tropicana Field. Wait until next year, when young pitchers Jesus Colome, Bobby Seay and Matt White make the show.

American League Central

Everything went right last season for the White Sox (until September). On the strength of a 20--7 June, Chicago ran away with the Central, a year ahead of schedule. The Sox, who had 20 more wins in 2000 than in 1999, have one of baseball's deepest farm systems. The big club had 95 wins with a bargain-basement payroll, but inexperience showed in October when they were swept by the Mariners. Frank Thomas (43 HRs, 143 RBI) returned to form. Chicago got career years from Jose Valentin and waiver pickup Herbert Perry, who stabilized third base and hit .302. As the best away team in baseball last season, Chicago scored runs like crazy. Paul Konerko (21 HRs, 97 RBI) and Carlos Lee (24 HRs, 92 RBI) are two 25-year-olds with high upsides. And watch out for 23-year-old third baseman Joe Crede (21 HRs, .306 in AA last year). The Sox must learn to win at home. Will moving in the fences help? (Comiskey was tied for second in the AL in home runs per at bat.) David Wells (5--6, 4.97 in the second half of 2000) will win big games, change-up artist Keith Foulke will save them, and Royce Clayton will improve a shaky infield defense. But Cal Eldred and James Baldwin must be healthy, and a young starter (i.e., Jon Garland, Kip Wells or Jon Rauch) has to come through if the Sox are to make the postseason again.

The Indians are near the end of their run. Last year they showed both their age and their weariness (28 Cleveland players were thrown out at the plate in 2000). Even in an injury-plagued season, the Tribe would have made the playoffs had they fared better against teams in their division. The Twins and the Royals killed the Indians. Juan Gonzalez and Ellis Burks will ease the loss of Manny Ramirez, but Cleveland's fortunes will ride on its arms. Manager Charlie Manuel used a major league record 32 pitchers last season, and the staff gave up the AL's second-most walks. The Indians lost 21 games in which they scored at least six runs. Bartolo Colon, at 26, is on the verge of greatness. Dave Burba (16--6) and Chuck Finley (16--11) are gamers. If Jaret Wright's shoulder is healthy and if the Tribe gets any help from Charles Nagy, Sean DePaula, Cuban prodigy Danys Baez, Jake Westbrook or giant lefthander C.C. Sabathia, they will be around in October. But this could be their swan song.

The Tigers started the season 9--23 but managed to finish at 79--83. Detroit was shut out a major-league-high 15 times and ranked at or near the bottom in batting average, runs and hitting (continued on page 164)Baseball 2001(continued from page 132) with runners in scoring position. Only Bobby Higginson (the first Tiger to hit .300 with 30 HRs and 100 RBI since Norm Cash) and shortstop Deivi Cruz (.302 with 46 doubles) performed above expectations. Juan Gonzalez turned down a $140 million deal in the spring and then turned in a lackluster summer, missing 47 games and driving in only 67 runs. Juan and his entourage are now in Cleveland and leadoff hitter Roger Cedeno (who came over from Houston with pitcher Chris Holt and catcher Mitch Meluskey) will take his place in right field. Detroit needs a healthy Tony Clark and more production from Juan Encarnacion and Damion Easley. If the Tigers improve their discipline at the plate, they can make better use of spacious Comerica Park. Detroit has an underrated mound staff (it gave up the fewest walks in the AL) led by future star Jeff Weaver and Brian Moehler. The pen, third best in the AL, features Todd Jones (42 saves) and fireballer Matt Anderson (61 hits in 74 1/3 innings). If the Tigers avoid their customary sluggish start they should manage a winning season.

It was a good year for offense in KC. The Royals led the AL in hits and whiffed the least. But they also had the second-fewest homers in the AL and walked the fewest times. Maybe that's why they finished 18 games behind Chicago. First baseman Mike Sweeney (144 RBI) led the league in hitting with runners in scoring position. Jermaine Dye hit 33 homers and drove in 118 runs. But the pitching was plain terrible. With Jose Rosado going down in May and missing the rest of the year, the staff yielded the most homers in the AL. The Royals have blown 56 saves in the past two seasons. Reliever Roberto Hernandez, acquired from Tampa in a three-way trade for Johnny Damon, could remedy matters. The pitching will be better (Rosado and Mac Suzuki should be back), but what happens to the offense without Damon? Based on their 2000 performances, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Febles don't look as good as they did a year ago. Dye, Sweeney and Mark Quinn (.294, 20 HRs and 78 RBI) will have to carry the load.

Bobblehead dolls were such a hit last year in Minnesota that fans left the ballpark without watching a pitch, and sold their dolls to sidewalk entrepreneurs. But 2001 will be a more intriguing season for the Twins. This year we will find out if LaTroy Hawkins (14 for 14 in save opportunities) and Mark Redman (12 wins) are for real. With Jacque Jones, John Barnes, David Ortiz, Eric Milton, Cristian Guzman (who hit 20 triples last season), Torii Hunter and Matt Lawton, the Twins have a core of decent young players. And keep an eye on pitcher Matt Kinney, who had eight starts in 2000. The offense is weak--Minnesota hit the fewest homers in the majors and hasn't had anyone hit 30 in 13 years. Tom Kelly needs to keep his patience (team members groused about his handling of young players last season). Owner Carl Pohlad gave GM Terry Ryan permission to double the payroll, to $32 million. But that doesn't buy much these days. And there are other concerns. Earlier this year, the Metropolitan Sports Facilities Commission announced a $259 million renovation of the Metrodome. One problem: It will become a football-only facility and the Twins will be on the sidewalk selling Kent Hrbek bobblehead dolls after their lease expires in 2003.

American League West

General manager Billy Beane has put together an inspiring team based on youth, power and on-base percentage. The Athletics went from a 97-loss season in 1997 to a 91-win division championship in 2000. On May 26 the As were below .500, but ripped off nine straight wins in June and caught fire in September. Oakland was third in the AL both in runs scored (947) and earned run average (4.58). Yet Beane outdid himself this off-season. Last year, the As were slow, didn't field well and lacked a true leadoff hitter. But new left fielder Johnny Damon (obtained for Ben Grieve from KC in a three-way trade) led the league with 136 runs and 46 stolen bases--six more than the entire Oakland team. With Damon at the top, center fielder Terrence Long (.288, 18 HRs) moves down in the order to protect Jason Giambi (43 HRs, 137 RBI, ML-best .476 on-base percentage). Rookie Jose Ortiz (.351, 24 HRs in AAA) will be the new second baseman and could bat second. Another candidate for the two-slot, shortstop Miguel Tejada (30 HRs, 115 RBI), is almost at a level with Rodriguez, Garciaparra and Jeter. The A's have three starting pitchers under the age of 25--Tim Hudson (20--6, 4.14), Barry Zito (7--4, 2.72) and Mark Mulder--so the nucleus should continue to improve. Gil Heredia (15--11, 4.12) and Omar Olivares (4--8, 6.75) also figure to start. Rookie Jon Ratliff, free agent Mark Guthrie or ex-Devil Ray Cory Lidle could also be in the rotation. Setup man Jim Mecir (2.80 in 25 games with the A's) is another one of Beane's astute pickups. All nine starters are 30 years old or younger (Jason Giambi, who turned 30 in January, is the oldest), but that could change if 34-year-old DH John Jaha returns from shoulder surgery. Owners Steve Schott and Ken Hofmann need to nail down Giambi and figure a way to keep their team together and get a new stadium. Closer Jason Isringhausen and Damon could be free agents after 2001. If the A's get help from Adam Piatt and Jeremy Giambi and from their fourth and fifth starters, they'll play in the Series.

The Mariners lost Alex Rodriguez, but that's nothing new. Over the previous two years Seattle was forced to deal Randy Johnson and Junior Griffey and still did fine. Last season the M's took the Yankees to the sixth game of the ALCS. General manager Pat Gillick has assembled a team well tailored to the AL's toughest offensive park. The Mariners were first in walks and second in on-base percentage and steals. Despite hitting .269, they were fourth in the AL in runs. Ageless wonder Edgar Martinez led the league with 145 runs batted in. (He was the oldest player to reach 140 RBI since Babe Ruth.) Ichiro Suzuki, a seven-time batting champ in Japan, will be a premiere leadoff man. But pitching is Seattle's strong suit. Aaron Sele (17--10, 4.51), John Halama (14--9), Paul Abbott and Freddy Garcia (9--5, 3.91) form a deep front four. But shoulder injuries to Gil Meche and Ryan Anderson limit Gillick's trading options. The bullpen, long a sore spot in Seattle, improved dramatically with the emergence of Kazu Sasaki, Jose Paniagua and Arthur Rhodes. And with the signing of ex-Yank Jeff Nelson, Seattle has the league's deepest pen. Without Rodriguez, the Mariners will be lighter at the plate, but they have enough on the mound to give them a chance in the AL's toughest division.

There's plenty of lumber in Anaheim--the Angels had the league's best slugging percentage and a record five players with more than 300 total bases--but not enough starting pitching. Who led the league in home runs? Troy Glaus, with 47 (the most ever by an American League third baseman). Darin Erstad led the majors with 240 hits. General manager Bill Stoneman signed two free agents: Ismael Valdes and Pat Rapp. Valdes, at 27, still could come around. Rapp was signed to give the Angels innings, but they'll be long innings (he allowed an AL-high 15.1 baserunners per nine innings). Mo Vaughn's ruptured biceps tendon will keep him out all season. His replacement, Wally Joyner, won't put up Mo-type numbers. If shortstop Gary Disarcina's shoulder isn't ready, watch for rookie Wilmy Caceres. Don't expect the Halos to score 864 runs this year. Unless Valdes and starters Jarrod Washburn and Ramon Ortiz come up big, these guys won't go anywhere. If they don't, Disney may look to sell.

Texas Rangers owner Tom Hicks will make money off his signing of Alex Rodriguez. After falling from first place in 1999 to last place in 2000, Texas GM Doug Melvin went wild in the off-season. If committing $252 million to Alex Rodriguez didn't qualify him as a spendthrift, he inked Andres Galarraga, Ken Caminiti, Chris Haney and Mark Pet-kovsek. Of course, pitching remains a problem for the Rangers, beyond Rick Helling and Kenny Rogers. The pen was awful, with a 5.44 ERA. Texas hurlers threw only three complete games and opponents hit .294 against them. The team had the worst pitching in the majors and the worst fielding in the AL. Injuries were a factor. Ivan Rodriguez played in only 91 games. Outfielder Ruben Mateo was in just 52 games before breaking his leg. Lefty Justin Thompson--a key to the Juan Gonzalez trade--didn't pitch at all (he's out until midseason at the earliest). Maybe Melvin isn't finished fussing. It's hard to believe Tim Crabtree (2--7, 5.15 ERA, two saves) or Jeff Brantley (2--7, 5.86 ERA, 23 saves with the Phillies in 2000) will close. There's gold in the minors, but it's at least a year away. Look for Ricky Ledee, Gabe Kapler or Rusty Greer to be shopped for pitching. Hopes are high in Arlington, but hitting isn't everything.

National League East

Time is running out for these Braves to win another World Series. Tom Glavine (21--9, 3.40) and Greg Maddux (19--9, 3.00) are both 35. The return of John Smoltz will help, but Atlanta needs a good season from Kevin Millwood (4.66 ERA in 2000, 2.68 in 1999). Andruw Jones (36 HRs) and Rookie of the Year Rafael Furcal are two of the best young players in the game. Chipper Jones--the first third sacker since Pie Traynor to drive in 100 runs in five straight seasons--will stay at third, but Brian Jordan and B.J. Surhoff are weak in the outfield corners. GM John Schuer-holz signed Rico Brogna to replace Andres Galarraga and improved a thin bench by adding Dave Martinez and Kurt Abbott. Rookie second baseman Marcus Giles (Brian's brother) could also contribute. John Rocker showed signs of regaining his dominance after the All Star break. There are more pitchers coming, but the Braves' offense will have to gel if Atlanta is to get to the World Series.

The Mets' amazing season came to an end when heroic Al Leiter ran out of gas against the Yankees in game five of the World Series. Bobby Valentine's boys staked their claim to the pennant when they caught fire in August, going 20--9. They followed with a spirited postseason run against the Giants (highlighted by Benny Agbayani's 13th-inning homer in game three) and Cards. New York got great years from Leiter, Mike Hampton, Mike Piazza (38 HRs, 113 RBI and only 69 strikeouts) and Edgardo Alfonzo. Jay Payton (.291, 17 HRs) finally lived up to the hype. The off-season was more painful for New Yorkers (at least for some of them). No big-name free agents signed with the Mets. Hampton and Bobby Jones were replaced by Kevin Appier and Steve Trachsel. It will be hard for the Mets to replicate last year's success. Rey Ordonez has supposedly recovered from his broken arm but is still a question mark. Timo Perez won't cut it as an everyday player. Darryl Hamilton and Japanese import Tsuyoshi Shinjo won't scare pitchers. GM Steve Phillips may regret turning down all those offers for outfield phenoms Alex Escobar and Brian Cole, but maybe he'll get Sammy Sosa. Robin Ventura had the worst season in his 12-year career, so he should bounce back. But the Mets' fate will ride with how well Appier fares in Shea.

"Can you believe this?" one sports-writer noted in the Miami Herald. "The Marlins win the World Series in 1997, tear apart the team, and in three years' time they're better than the Cubs." With continued progress from a few young players, the Fish could be sharp this year. The youngest team in baseball (and the team with the second-lowest payroll) managed 79 wins last season, a 15-game improvement over 1999. The big off-season news was the announcement of a new retractable-roof stadium, due to open in 2004. The pitching is ahead of the offense, but neither is great. Brad Penny, 23, and A.J. Burnett, 24, are magnificent prospects. All Star Ryan Dempster, 24, had 209 strikeouts but was worked hard. Chuck Smith, a 31-year-old rookie, started 19 games and had a 3.23 ERA. Rookie phenom Josh Beckett might break into the rotation. Antonio Alfonseca had 45 saves in 49 opportunities and helped the Marlins compile a 32--20 record in one-run games. Charles Johnson returned home to catch the young pitchers. The hitting is improving, too. First baseman Derrek Lee (28 HRs) blossomed last season. With 31 home runs and 36 stolen bases, outfielder Preston Wilson was the only 30--30 man in the majors. Luis Castillo (.334, 62 stolen bases) is a bona fide star. Cliff Floyd (22 HRs in 121 games) could become one if he ever stayed healthy. Mark Kotsay could be ready to show power. Shortstop Alex Gonzalez is one of the worst-hitting position players in the NL. The Marlins will struggle to get 89 wins this year--only two teams have ever had three consecutive 10-win improvements-- but they could scratch their way into the wild card.

This could be the end of the line for Expos fans. Their hopes for a new stadium are gone. Owner Jeffrey Loria stumbled in his efforts to inspire fans (Montreal was last in MLB in attendance and revenues). Labatt Brewery--the team's sponsor for 15 years--ended their relationship. So what else is new? The Expos once again have a scuffling team loaded with extraordinary young players. There were signs of potential last year when Montreal went to 31--23 on June 5. But injuries dragged down the pitching staff. This year looks better already. Last season, the Expos made two bad trades (Rondell White to the Cubs for LHP Scott Downs and 25-year-old Brad Fullmer to Toronto for 32-year-old Lee Stevens). But GM Jim Beattie pulled off a great off-season swap with the Cards, bringing Fernando Tatis to a lineup that already has Jose Vidro (.330, 24 HRs, 51 doubles) and Vlad Guerrero (who led the majors with 23 intentional walks). Leadoff hitter Peter Bergeron was hot in winter ball and may finally be ready. Despite the good hitters, the free-swinging Expos walked an NL-lowest 476 times. The starting pitching is impressive with Javier Vazquez, Carl Pavano (who won't pitch before May) and Tony Armas (who held opposing batters to a .218 average). Donnie Bridges (11--7, 2.39 in AA) looks like a keeper. Britt Reames, who came from St. Louis in the Dustin Hermanson-Tatis trade, should make the rotation. If the pitchers stay healthier than they did last year, Montreal can make a move this season.

The Phillies tied the Cubs as the worst team in the league in 2000. This year firebrand Larry Bowa takes over as manager, and the cement infield has been replaced with softer turf. How can a team with Scott Rolen, Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell and Mike Lieberthal score the fewest runs in the majors? The Phillies have to improve the top of their lineup. Rookie shortstop Jimmy Rollins (24 stolen bases in AAA) will help, but he doesn't walk a lot. The Phils may trade disappointing Doug Glanville (.307 on-base percentage) and play former first-round pick Reggie Taylor (.310 OBP, 23 SBs in AAA) in center. Philadelphia spent the winter throwing money at Jose Mesa, Ricky Bottalico, Rheal Cormier and Brian L. Hunter. GM Ed Wade acquired young talent last year in Bruce Chen, Omar Daal and Travis Lee. With three lefties in Philadelphia's rotation alongside Robert Person (144 hits in 173 1/3 innings), the starting pitching will be good. But the bullpen, which posted a 5.66 ERA last year, probably won't improve enough. The Phillies will be better this year, but a team playing in the country's fourth-largest media market shouldn't have this much ground to make up.

National League Central

Last off-season, Cardinals GM Walt Jocketty landed a 20-game winner (Darryl Kile) and a 40-homer guy (Jim Edmonds). St. Louis ran away with the NL Central and swept the Braves in the first round of the playoffs. This year Jocketty couldn't land Mike Hampton, so he traded for Montreal pitchers Dustin Hermanson and Steve Kline. Other than Kile and Andy Benes, there are questions about the starting rotation. How much will Matt Morris and Alan Benes contribute? What will the Redbirds get from 16-game winner Garrett Stephenson? The pressure will be on Rick Ankiel to relax. He broke Dizzy Dean's team record for strikeouts as a rookie and was the Cards' best pitcher down the stretch, but then he gave up 11 walks and served up nine wild pitches in four postseason innings. In the field there are concerns about Ray Lankford, who struggled last season (.253 with 148 strikeouts in 392 at bats). And the Cards could miss Fernando Tads. Look for a breakout year from 25-year-old J.D. Drew. With Mark McGwire back in full swing, the Cards will score runs. They'll have to make more contact--last year they stranded the second-most runners in the league and set a league record for strikeouts. Still, St. Louis has a good shot at its tenth world championship. The Cards could be vulnerable against left-handed pitching, though. That's not an issue in the Central, but it could become a factor in the postseason.

Ken Griffey was hailed as the guy who would put the Reds over the top, but when he hit .212 in April and May, Cincinnatians gnashed their teeth and pulled their hair. Junior eventually came around, hitting .342 over the final two months of the season and ending with 40 homers. But it was too late. Jack McKeon is gone and Bob Boone is back in the majors as manager. With Scott Williamson and Danny Graves, the bullpen was exceptional again last year, third best in the NL. And once he recovered from a broken thumb, Sean Casey hit .372 after the All Star game. Owner Carl Lindner ordered the payroll trimmed, so GM Jim Bowden shipped off Eddie Taubensee, Steve Parris, Ron Villone and Chris Stynes. In their place, Bowden has stockpiled arms. Watch for John Riedling (2.35 ERA in 13 games), Chris Reitsma and Clayton Andrews, a lefty acquired from Toronto for Parris. The starting rotation is wobbly, with Pete Harnisch, Rob Bell and Williamson (who has never pitched more than 112 innings in a season) the only locks. There are as many holes in the roster as there are in demolition-bound Cinergy Field, but don't write off the Redlegs. If everything goes right, they may figure in the wild card race. If Lindner tightens the purse strings further, look for Dmitri Young or Scott Sullivan to pack their bags.

A tepid offense held the Brewers in check in 2000. In addition to setting a franchise record for strikeouts, Milwaukee had the worst batting average and on-base percentage in the majors. This year's crew should be more robust at the plate. The outfield will get a lift from Jeffrey Hammonds (coming off a career year in Colorado), and Geoffjenkins (31 HRs, 94 RBI) will only improve. Jeromy Burnitz (.232, 31 HRs) could be traded, but if he plays in Miller Park, he'll put up stronger numbers. A slimmed-down Ronnie Belliard will be a better leadoff hitter, and a full year from Richie Sexson (14 HRs in 213 at bats) will give Milwaukee a boost. The pitching was revived by a healthy Jeff D'Amico (12--7, 2.66 ERA). If Jamey Wright and Jimmy Haynes pitch as well this year as they did the first half of last--and if Olympics star Ben Sheets pitches as well in the NL as he did against Team Fidel--the Brewers will have a solid starting quartet. The pen (second best in the NL last year) is deep, with Curtis Leskanic ably replacing traded closer Bob Wickman. Milwaukee has a shot at a winning season--its first since 1992--but can't hope for much more.

Despite owner Drayton McLane's cost-cutting, which forced the trades of Carl Everett and Mike Hampton, Houston figured to be in the hunt for its fourth straight division title last year. But the Y2K Astros never got off the launching pad. Houston had a problem (pitching) and by the All Star break had the majors' worst record. The move to hitter-friendly Enron Field left Stros hurlers shell-shocked. The team ERA swelled to a league-high 5.41. Jose Lima had a 6.65 ERA and coughed up an NL-record 48 jonrones. Ace closer Billy Wagner blew out his left elbow in June. Lima and Wagner will be counted on to rebound this year. Starter Shane Reynolds will miss the first month with a jogging injury, but Scott Elarton (17--7, 4.81) has established himself as a top starter. Tony Mc-Knight (4--1, 3.86 in six starts), Wade Miller and Olympian Roy Oswalt could help. The relief core is improved with the addition of Doug Brocail and Nelson Cruz. Houston was unlucky, with a 15--31 record in one-run games. Raising the fences will help the pitchers, but probably won't hurt Jeff Bagwell (47 HRs and 152 runs) and Richard Hidalgo (44 HRs and 122 RBI). If the bullpen improves, Craig Biggio rebounds and the pitchers adjust to life at Enron, the Astros can make a run at the wild card.

Pittsburgh had too many ailing pitchers to accomplish anything in 2000. But it's unclear what the Pirates were trying to accomplish. Is this a young team or an old one? In the off-season, the Bucs continued their confused ways by signing 32-year-old outfielder Derek Bell and 38-year-old pitcher Terry Mulholland. After eight consecutive losing seasons, the Pirates demolished Three Rivers Stadium. PNC Park will supposedly be pitcher-friendly. New manager Lloyd McClendon will have a tough time inspiring some of his veterans. Two Pirates vets would do fine in any park: Jason Kendall, who hit .320 and scored 112 runs, and Brian Giles, who hit 35 homers and drove in 123 runs. Kris Benson (10--12, 3.85) threw great in Pitt but was terrible on the road. Groundball lefty Jimmy Anderson could be a surprise, and right-hander Bobby Bradley--a first-round pick in 1999--will be ready for the top of the rotation by 2002. Maybe owner Kevin McClatchy's confusion is justified, because the Pirates' young players haven't panned out according to the five-year plan. The jury is still out on Aramis Ramirez and Chad Hermansen, and Warren Morris (.259, 3 HRs) slumped in his second season.

Sammy Sosa led the majors with 50 home runs, and Jon Lieber led with 251 innings pitched. But the Cubs still finished in last place, 30 games out of first. Where will they end up this season? With seven lineup players 30 years or older (and Rondell White, 29), probably back at the bottom. The pitching is lousy--third worst in ERA and better only than the Astros in home runs allowed--and the addition of Tom Gordon, Jeff Fassero, Jason Bere and Julian Tavarez won't change that. Ron Coomer, Matt Stairs and Todd Hundley will be bleacher favorites, but aren't enough for the Cubs to challenge in a tough division. The Cubs score too few runs in what has become one of the league's worst offensive parks. Chicago's hopes rest with the future. In a few years we'll see 2B Bobby Hill, 1B Hee Seop Choi and of Corey Patterson. And there's pitching on the way with Joey Nation, Carlos Zambrano, Ben Christensen and Will Ohman. Expect Sosa to be traded, but expect the seats in Wrigley to remain filled.

National League West

San Francisco had 97 wins, the most in the majors last year. The Giants also had the best record in baseball in the second half, but they couldn't buy a break in the postseason. After J.T. Snow's three-run pinch-hit homer off Armando Benitez tied the second game of the Mets series, the Giants managed only two runs in the next 23 innings. Their season ended, appropriately, with Barry Bonds making the final out. There's plenty to like about the Giants. MVP Jeff Kent (.334, 33 HRs, 125 RBI) keeps getting better. Even at the age of 36, Bonds (49 HRs, 1.128 on-base percentage plus slugging) is one of the five best players in the game. Who led NL shortstops the past two years in home runs and runs batted in? Rich Aurilia. With his help, the Giants had the best defense in the NL. The starting rotation is reliable but lacks an ace. Shawn Estes (15--6, 4.26) had the most support of any pitcher in the majors last season. Livan Hernandez (17--11, 3.75) is getting better. The bullpen is sterling, with Felix Rodriguez and Robb Nen the league's best one-two punch. The Giants have had to tighten their belts after funding Pac Bell Park, which keeps them from pursuing costly free agents. They lost Ellis Burks (who signed with Cleveland) and Bill Mueller (traded to the Cubs) and signed Eric Davis and Shawon Dunston. Armando Rios appears ready for right field, if his elbow is OK. Pedro Feliz (33 HRs in AAA) will compete with veteran Russ Davis for the third base job. This team is old, but Dusty Baker seems to prefer it that way. The Giants need big years from Hernandez and Russ Ortiz, but they could go a long way.

Last year Los Angeles' $98 million payroll resulted in 86 wins, a second-place finish and a pink slip for manager Davey Johnson. Pitching and defense win in Chavez Ravine, but the Dodgers--who haven't made the playoffs in 10 of the past 12 seasons--didn't have enough of either. They were the NL's second-worst defensive team. Their number four and number five starters went 11--26 with a 6.28 ERA. So Rupert Murdoch dropped $22.5 million on a three-year contract for Andy Ashby and $55 million to re-sign Darren Dreifort for five years. Los Angeles' $50 million starting rotation (Kevin Brown, Chan Ho Park, Dreifort, Ashby, Eric Gagne, Ramon Martinez and Carlos Perez) will have to do better than last year's 4.28 ERA. The once-vaunted farm system is virtually barren, and huge salary commitments limit the Dodgers' options. GM Kevin Malone succeeded in unloading a part of his platinum outfield. (Devon White, 38, went to the Brews for Marquis Grissom.) Burgeoning star Adrian Beltre had an appendectomy over the winter and has had a difficult recovery. Usually reliable Eric Karros hit just .232 with six home runs after the break. Shortstop Alex Cora, who led the Puerto Rican Winter League in home runs, should do better than last year's .238 average. The catching will be thin with Paul LoDuca and Chad Kreuter. Closer Jeff Shaw, who had his worst year since 1995, may be near retirement. Gary Sheffield is coming off a career year (43 homers and .643 slugging), but he won't be a Dodger for long after sparring with Dodger boss Bob Daly this spring. Shawn Green will have to pick up the offensive pace. New manager Jim Tracy, a Felipe Alou protégé, must keep Malone off his back. If the defense improves and a couple of the youngsters surprise, the Dodgers could make a run at the wild card.

Former broadcaster Bob Brenly will have his hands full this season as Arizona's manager. The Diamondbacks were even with the Giants on July 26, when they acquired Curt Schilling from Philadelphia. But Schilling never gave the D-Backs the boost they expected: They went 29--32 the rest of the way and ended in third place. Arizona is a bit long in the tooth. Matt Williams, Jay Bell, Steve Finley and Luis Gonzalez are all in their mid-30s. Newcomers Mark Grace and Reggie Sanders don't signal a youth movement, either. In 1999 Arizona led the NL in runs scored; last year it was tenth. Randy Johnson (19--7, 2.64 ERA) can't win three straight Cy Youngs, can he? To top it off, the D-Backs eliminated 15 front office positions last fall to save money--the franchise reportedly lost $45 million--and ten players agreed to defer parts of their contract. This doesn't shape up to be a good year for Arizona.

General manager Dan O'Dowd overhauled the Rockies in 2000 to emphasize speed and defense. It turned out to be a partial success, because Colorado finished 82--80. If not for a 7--22 July, they would have been in the division race. Imagine a Rockies team 13th in the NL in homers and fourth in stolen bases. What's next--pitching? Ultimately, the key for the Rox will be to win on the road (last year they were 34--47). The Rockies don't do well in pitchers' parks out West, posting a 61--102 all-time record in California. That's where hired guns Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle should help. With Hampton, Neagle, Ron Villone and Brian Bohanon, Colorado has the majors' first four-lefty rotation since the 1981 Yankees. Mike Myers (the best setup man in the game last year), Gabe White (11--2, 2.17 ERA) and closer Jose Jimenez give Colorado its best pen ever. Pity Todd Helton--a lifetime .334 hitter who gets no respect. His offensive stats are helium-based, but he still hit .353 on the road. The Rockies need Larry Walker to play in more than 87 games; if he's healthy they can be the league's most improved team. Colorado is moving in the right direction.

The good news is that the Padres lost only 86 games. The bad news is that, in a tough division, that's only good enough for last place. There isn't much positive to be said about the Pads. Phil Nevin hit .301 with 31 homers. Trevor Hoffman had 43 saves. Woody Williams came back strong and rookie pitcher Adam Eaton went 7--4 in 22 starts. After some unseemly posturing, the team re-signed Tony Gwynn. Sean Burroughs--the much-heralded 20-year-old third base prospect--may play in San Diego this year. On the downside, pitcher Matt Clement, who has been frequently mentioned in trade rumors, lost 17 games and led the majors in wild pitches and walks allowed. San Diego led the majors in errors. And the outfield hit only 45 home runs. General manager Kevin Towers seems determined to trade Nevin. How long can the Padres stick with Ruben Rivera (.208, 57 RBI) in center? San Diego needs to shake things up. The new stadium, still delayed by legal wrangling, remains in limbo.

Playboy's Picks

American League

national League

AL wild card: white sox

AL champs: yankees

nL wild card: mets

nL champs: CARDINALS

World Champs: Yankees

A Class Act

Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Carlos Delgado hit .344 last season, with 41 home runs and 1 37 runs batted in, and led the AL in doubles and extra-base hits. Until August it looked as if Carlos would be the first player since Carl Yazstremski to win the triple crown. The four-year S68 million contract Delgado signed this past October looks like a bargain now.

Leadoff Leader

At the age of 27, the Anaheim Angels' Darin Erstad is the best leadoff hitter in the game. His 240 hits in 2000 were the most since 1985. Before he was injured in August, Erstad had a shot to break George Sisler's 80-year-old record for most hits in a season. He plays with an intensity rarely seen today. And he's a Cold Glove outfielder to boot. "I don't think there's ever a day they can hang his jersey in his locker," says Joe Torre. "They've always got to throw it in the washer." A native of Jamestown, North Dakota and a punter on Nebraska's 1994 national championship team, Erstad was the first player chosen in the 1995 draft. His first three seasons in the bigs were impressive, but Erstad went into the tank in 1999, hitting .253 and striking out 101 times. Last season he came back strong, getting 100 hits in the first 61 games. With a sweet swing and an unusual ability to wait on a pitch and drive it to all fields, Erstad is one of the best pure hitters in baseball. He answered a few questions for Playboy.

[Q] Playboy: Who's your favorite hitter?

[A] Erstad: Edgar Martinez.

[Q] Playboy: Who has the advantage at the start of the season, the hitter or the pitcher? What about at the end of the season?

[A] Erstad: It's even at the start. The hitter has the advantage at the end.

[Q] Playboy: Who has the edge the first time you face a pitcher--you or the pitcher?

[A] Erstad: The pitcher.

[Q] Playboy: Like your former hitting coach, Rod Carew, you don't take a lot of walks. Do you think you should walk more?

[A] Erstad: I'd like to, but for some reason I tend to put the ball in play when I make contact.

[Q] Playboy: What's your least favorite park to play in?

[A] Erstad: Tropicana Field in Tampa. It seems darker than other stadiums and I don't pick up the rotation of the ball as well when batting.

[Q] Playboy: Who's the toughest relief pitcher for you to face?

[A] Erstad: Trevor Hoffman.

[Q] Playboy: How often do you have to adjust to pitchers during the course of the season? Does word get around among pitchers?

[A] Erstad: It depends. I can adjust many times in one plate appearance. The advance scouting is good. If you're struggling with a certain pitch, you can be sure you'll see plenty of them until you make the adjustment.

[Q] Playboy: In 1 999, your worst offensive year, you grounded out to the right side of the infield 130 times. Were you trying to go the other way and couldn't?

[A] Erstad: I was trying to pull too many pitches. I wanted to dictate where to hit the ball, instead of letting the location of the pitch dictate what I would do with it. With this, you develop bad habits at the plate, and it just snowballs. You know you need to use the whole field, but that's easier said than done sometimes.

[Q] Playboy: Like Tony Gwynn you're a video fanatic. What do you look for in those videos?

[A] Erstad: I chart every pitch of every at bat. I like to look for tendencies of pitchers. As for my swing, I'm trying to keep it simple and make sure I'm taking the right path to the ball.

[Q] Playboy: What's your favorite away city?

[A] Erstad: Cleveland. Great park, great fans and great atmosphere. It's like a college football Saturday every day.

[Q] Playboy: Which is the tougher part of hitting: physical execution or the mental concentration?

[A] Erstad: Mental concentration. You have a lot of at bats during the season. It can be easy to throw away at bats by not concentrating. Focusing on every pitch and always having a plan are two of my major goals. Not once in a while, but every pitch, with no exceptions.

[Q] Playboy: You won a Gold Glove in 2000. Do you think about hitting when you're in the field?

[A] Erstad: That's inevitable. You need to minimize those thoughts. I look at it this way: When I put my batting helmet on, it's all offense. When I put my ball cap on, defense. In the dugout I don't wear my hat. I am free to think about whatever situation needs attention. If you're thinking about offense while playing defense, the ball will find you.

[Q] Playboy: Mo Vaughn will be out for a while. Will that change your role as lead-off hitter?

[A] Erstad: I don't believe the loss of Mo will affect me as the leadoff hitter. As a team we know Mo's importance in the lineup. We're going to miss him.

[Q] Playboy: You had only 482 minor league at bats. What do rookies have to do to fit in in the big leagues?

[A] Erstad: Keep your mouth shut and eyes and ears open. Play hard and respect the game. Do that, and you'll fit right in.

[Q] Playboy: What card games do you play in the clubhouse?

[A] Erstad: Hearts, three-man or team hearts. I used to play a lot of gin, but now hearts is the game of choice.

[Q] Playboy: What's the strangest thing a first basemen has said to you after a hit?

[A] Erstad: It was my rookie year, playing Cleveland at home. I had a few bloopers fall and when I got another one, Kevin Seitzer said, "I can't believe we haven't knocked you off your feet yet." He didn't smile.

Five Reasons to Throw Tomatoes at Bud Selig

(1) Pete Rose.

(2) Interleague play.

(3) Moved commissioner's office to Milwaukee.

(4) A full-lipped man in a thin-lipped job.

(5) Refused to make George W. Bush commissioner of baseball.

Hampton's New Home

In Mike Hampton's only 2000 start in Colorado, he suffered a fate familiar to pitchers at Coors Field. In five innings (and 104 pitches) he gave up eight hits, seven runs (six earned) and three walks. In the six-run third, Hampton gave up two triples and then took out his frustrations on a water cooler. His career stats in Denver: 24 earned runs in 33-1/3 innings. So why did he sign an eight-year contract to pitch at high altitude? One thing's for sure: Hampton--a .231 career hitter--will hit better.

Sandy Alderson

Sandy Alderson is major league baseball's executive vice president of operations. A former general manager of the Oakland A's, he's the most respected mind in the game today. He took time out this spring to answer a few questions for us.

[Q] Playboy: What's the high strike going to do this season?

[A] Alderson: We'll see. It may shorten games or rebalance the offense versus the pitching. But it will definitely give pitchers more options and force hitters to react more to location.

[Q] Playboy: A lot of players and coaches seem skeptical. Won't it be difficult to enforce?

[A] Alderson: We've spent a lot of time training the umps and we intend to provide them with detailed feedback on how they're calling the strike zone. This year a pitch-tracking system will be installed in half a dozen ballparks that can locate a pitch within half an inch. We'll compare the umpires' calls and give them feedback.

[Q] Playboy: How do you think hitters will respond to the high strike?

[A] Alderson: Batters will have to adjust, but patient hitters will still have an advantage. How quickly the hitters adjust will depend on how frequently pitchers throw high strikes.

[Q] Playboy: Tom Glavine says he won't be pitching up in the zone.

[A] Alderson: Some pitching coaches have dismissed the significance of the high strike, but I disagree. There's a big difference between a belt-high and letter-high fastball. It's a lot harder to catch up to the high pitch.

[Q] Playboy: What about the width of the strike zone?

[A] Alderson: I think we've corrected most of the problems outside, but we also want to see the inside strike called. This will move hitters off the plate and make the outside pitch more effective.

[Q] Playboy: Will you try to restrict the use of body armor?

[A] Alderson: We have an agreement with the players' association to limit the size of elbow pads, with exceptions for injured players.

[Q] Playboy: What else is on the agenda?

[A] Alderson: Over the past 10 years smaller parks, bigger players and more body armor have affected the way the game is played. We're trying to look at these factors to understand how they have changed the game.

Pedro Rules

Pedro Martinez' 2000 season (18--6, 1.74 ERA) was one of baseball's best. More remarkably, he set a major league record by holding opposing batters to a .1 67 average. Pedro's weapons: flawless control and a willingness to pitch inside. The Dodgers traded Martinez to the Expos because they figured Pedro was too skinny to give them 35 starts a season.

Who'll win the World Series and the Cy Young? Vote at Playboy.com/sports.