Playboy's Pro Football Forecast

in the nfl, dynasties are dead and surprises reign, now that's excitement

In 2000 Mark Fields finally became the Pro Bowl defender the New Orleans Saints always thought he could be. Fields tackled runners, sacked quarterbacks and swatted away passes on one of the NFL's best defenses. The Saints stunned the NFC West by winning their first division title in nine years. Fields was selected to the first Pro Bowl of his six-year career. His reward? The Saints cut him from the roster in the offseason. Welcome to the new NFL, where your pay stub is more important than your ability. Fields was scheduled to become the second-highest-paid linebacker in the NFL in 2001 at $5.1 million. In a salary-cap world where teams must carve up $67.4 million among 53 players, Fields priced himself off the Saints. He was not alone. Levon Kirkland was set to become the highest-paid linebacker in the NFL this season at $5.4 million. So the Pittsburgh Steelers released him. John Randle was scheduled to become the league's highest-paid defensive end this season at $7.7 million. The Minnesota Vikings let him go. The San Francisco 49ers told Jerry Rice, the game's greatest and highest-paid receiver, he was free to leave rather than pay him his $4.5 million salary in 2001.

Free agency had been a rallying cry among NFL players for almost three decades. They finally achieved it in negotiations with NFL owners in 1993, but the trade-off was a salary cap. Now a player can sell his services to the highest bidder, but the more money he earns, the less likely he is to see the end of his contract.

"Everybody wants to get paid as much as he can," Vikings coach Dennis Green said. "But the salary cap is like a pie. Some guys want my share and your share. We're all becoming more and more aware that the pie can only be sliced so many ways."

The Cowboys were scheduled to pay future Hall of Fame quarterback Troy Aikman a $7 million bonus on March 8. They cut him rather than pay it, even though Dallas didn't have another NFL-caliber quarterback on the roster at the time. Elvis Grbac was one of only three quarterbacks to pass for 4000 yards last season on the way to his first Pro Bowl. But instead of paying Grbac a $10 million bonus due him in March, the Kansas City Chiefs released him.

The best players in the NFL start. But more than 60 of them became salary-cap casualties this offseason. That's the equivalent of three NFL starting lineups. Buffalo nose tackle Ted Washington joined Fields and Grbac as incumbent Pro Bowlers who got the axe. Recent Pro Bowlers Steve Beuerlein, Larry Centers, Doug Flutie, Tre Johnson, Cortez Kennedy, Leon Searcy, Todd Steussie, Dana Stubblefield and Erik Williams also were sent packing. Never before has the league endured so much turnover at the top of its pay scale.

The combination of free agency and a salary cap creates a constant flow of players from team to team, which prevents any one club from stockpiling all the stars the way the Yankees have done in baseball or the Lakers in basketball. So dynasties are dead in the NFL; parity is alive. "It's tough on coaches, tough on fans, tough on players," Steelers coach Bill Cowher said. "But you have to look at the big picture. Look at what other leagues are going through right now. This system has put us in a very healthy [financial] situation relative to other professional leagues.

"The past four Super Bowl teams—Baltimore and the New York Giants, St. Louis and Tennessee—weren't in the playoffs the year before. So there's a lot of excitement that every team takes (continued on page 138)NFL Forecast(continued from page 126) into training camp. I don't know if other sports can say that about their teams. This system is good for our game."

NFC East

To succeed in the NFL as a coach, you must understand football. But to succeed in the NFC East, you must understand history.

Dave McGinnis aced his first history test as head coach of the Arizona Cardinals this past April. The Cardinals had the second overall pick of the NFL draft and a pressing need at defensive tackle. But McGinnis passed up a slew of talented tacklers to take the best (and biggest) blocker on the draft board, Leonard Davis.

To win in the East, you must win the battles up front. The Cowboys were the NFL's team of the decade in the Nineties in large part because of a blocking front that featured five Pro Bowlers: tackles Mark Tuinei and Erik Williams, guards Larry Allen and Nate Newton and center Mark Stepnoski. The Redskins won two Super Bowls and dominated the division during the Eighties because of the Hogs on their offensive line.

McGinnis hopes Davis can be the final brick in a wall that gives the Cardinals the division's dominant blocking front this fall. Earlier in the offseason, the Cardinals shelled out $18 million to sign Pete Kendall, the best guard in free agency.

Kendall and Davis join a line that already includes a recent first-round draft pick at left tackle (L.J. Shelton), a second-round pick at right tackle (Anthony Clement) and a center who started in the 2000 Super Bowl for the St. Louis Rams (Mike Gruttadauria).

"It's still a big man's game," said McGinnis, who fought many a losing battle with those Dallas big men as defensive coordinator for the Cardinals from 1996 to 1999. Few are bigger than the big men the Cardinals can line up. Davis goes 6'6", 370 pounds. Clement goes 6'7", 351 and Shelton 6'6", 360. Davis will slide from his left tackle spot in college to right guard in the NFL, and the Cardinals will average 6'6", 335 pounds across their blocking front.

Everything else appears to be in place for the Cardinals on offense. They have three 1000-yard receivers in David Boston, Rob Moore and Frank Sanders and a recent first-round draft pick at running back (Thomas Jones in 2000).

Jake Plummer remains at quarterback, but his career has been slowed by injuries. The Cardinals have been unable to protect him, and he has missed a dozen games in his four seasons with a variety of injuries. With this offensive line, Plummer ought to have three seconds to find a receiver and Jones should see openings bigger than manhole covers.

"The people you're building around need a launching pad for success," McGinnis said. "That's what we're trying to do with this line."

With a last-place schedule, Arizona might be a candidate to vault from worst-to-first this season. If the Cardinals can block on the field as well as it appears they can, they could follow in the footsteps of Baltimore and St. Louis as overnight playoff contenders.

But the Philadelphia Eagles will be standing in the way. They have the best collection of young talent in the NFC East, maybe in the entire NFL. This team resembles the 1991 Dallas Cowboys on the verge of greatness.

The Eagles were surprising contenders in the East and first-round playoff victors in 2000 despite playing most of the season without their best offensive weapon, running back Duce Staley. He ranked in the NFL's top 10 in rushing before suffering a season-ending foot injury in the fifth game. Now he's back and looking to return to his 1999 form, when he rushed for 1273 yards.

Donovan McNabb matured as a quarterback in Staley's absence, earning a Pro Bowl berth in his first full season as a starter. All this offense lacked was a go-to receiver, and the Eagles think they've found him in Freddie Mitchell, their number one draft pick last April. He caught 68 passes for 1314 yards at UCLA last season.

Philadelphia returns a top 10 defense. Add it all up, and the Eagles are the preseason favorite in the East. But the defending NFC champion New York Giants aren't far behind.

The Giants are basic and physical on offense and defense. They pound the ball on the ground on offense with Tiki Barber and Ron Dayne, then pound away up front on defense with linemen Michael Strahan, Keith Hamilton and Cornelius Griffin.

The weakness last season was pass defense, where Jason Sehorn and Dave Thomas both struggled in the Super Bowl. But the Giants selected cornerbacks with their first two draft picks, taking Will Allen in the first round and Will Peterson in the third. The pass coverage also will benefit from an improved pass rush. The Giants signed away end Kenny Holmes in free agency from the NFL's number one-rated defense at Tennessee.

Last December the Washington Redskins fired Norv Turner with a 7-6 record, then fell out of the playoff chase under interim coach Terry Robiskie. Now it's Marty Schottenheimer's turn to try to satisfy owner Dan Snyder. But Snyder's failed bid to buy a championship in 2000 left the salary cap a mess in 2001. Eight starters are gone, and Deion Sanders went off to play baseball in the summer.

Troy Aikman retired, officially ending the Dallas Cowboys' dynasty. Emmitt Smith resumes the pursuit of Walter Payton's NFL rushing record this fall, but he's at least two years away. And the Cowboys as a team are about five years away.

NFC Central

The Minnesota Vikings aren't the best team of the NFL's salary-cap era, but they are certainly among the most resilient.

The Vikings still haven't captured a Super Bowl under Dennis Green, but they have 72 victories, three division titles and six playoff berths in the seven seasons since the league strapped on the salary cap. Only Green Bay has won more games in the NFL, only Dallas has more division titles in the NFC and no one has gone to the playoffs more often than the Vikings.

Credit Green with grasping the concept of the salary cap quicker than his peers.

"The bottom line is, you can't keep all your players," Green said. "So you have to have a plan and stick to it. Developing players is a big part of our plan."

The strategy starts in April. The Vikings don't draft collegians for the sake of drafting them. They draft collegians to play them. Since 1994, 31 Minnesota draft picks have started for the Vikings. Five have gone on to Pro Bowls.

The Vikings took a couple of huge hits after the 1999 season when Pro Bowl center Jeff Christy and quarterback Jeff George left in free agency. But Green plugged in draft picks Matt Birk and Daunte Culpepper to replace Christy and George. Surprisingly, Minnesota became a better team, wresting the NFC Central title away from Tampa Bay. Both Birk, a sixth-round pick in 1998, and Culpepper, a first-rounder in 1999, became novice Pro Bowlers.

The Vikings could have overpaid to (continued on page 167)NFL Forecast(continued from page 138) keep Christy and George. They also could have overpaid in recent offseasons to keep defensive starters Dewayne Washington, Derrick Alexander, Corey Fuller and Duane Clemons. But Green chose to let them all leave in free agency.

"The teams that have had tremendous cap problems are the ones that at certain stages tried to keep all of their players," Green said. "They kept pushing that money out, and that's going to get you."

Like it's gotten San Francisco, Dallas and Jacksonville. But the Vikings trek merrily along, retooling the roster, reloading with draft picks and winning all the while.

This season the Vikings said goodbye to NFC rushing champ Robert Smith, veteran Pro Bowl tackles John Randle (on defense) and Todd Steussie (on offense) and defensive leader Dwayne Rudd. Smith retired, Randle and Steussie were released as salary-cap casualties and Rudd departed in free agency.

Green will promote young players from within to fill their spots. You may not know the names of Doug Chapman, Michael Bennett, Fred Robbins, Willie Howard, Brad Badger and Antonio Wilson yet, but you should by the end of the season.

"We're going to miss Robert Smith," Green said. "But we're supposed to know our business, know our team. We feel a certain way about Doug Chapman. It doesn't matter what anybody else thinks about him. When we lost Jeff Christy, it didn't matter what anyone else thought about Matt Birk. What mattered is how we felt about him. All that matters is how you feel about your own players—and we feel good about ours."

So don't rule out the Vikings in 2001 despite the hits to their roster. Don't ever rule out the Vikings. Green knows how to play this game.

So do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. When Bucs coach Tony Dungy surveyed the ruins of his 2000 season—failure to repeat as NFC Central champion, failure to earn a repeat trip to the NFC title game, failure to win a single playoff game—he saw a need on his roster for big bodies and big plays. He needed a quarterback to get the ball to Keyshawn Johnson, a left tackle to protect that quarterback and an outside speed rusher to help Warren Sapp inside. Dungy filled all three vacancies with elite players, and now the Bucs loom among the favorites in both the division and conference. The Bucs traded up in the first round for the best left tackle in the 2001 draft, Florida's Kenyatta Walker. Dungy found his other two answers in free agency, signing veteran Pro Bowlers Brad Johnson at quarterback and Simeon Rice at defensive end.

"The quarterback is going to be the key," Dungy said. "If he does what we think he can do, we should be very good."

Mike Sherman went 9-7 in his first season as head coach of the Green Bay Packers. Having Brett Favre at quarterback accelerates any rebuilding process. Green Bay needed speed on the flank and in the pass rush, and GM Ron Wolf provided both in his final draft for the Packers. First-round pick Jamal Reynolds is the pass rusher and second-rounder Robert Ferguson the pass catcher. How quickly they hit the field could determine how quickly the Packers return to postseason play.

The Detroit Lions hired a new president (Matt Millen) and a new coach (Marty Mornhinweg). Both are schooled in the 49ers ways, Millen as a player and Mornhinweg as a coach. What the Lions could really use is a 49ers-schooled quarterback, somebody like Joe Montana or Steve Young.

The Chicago Bears have rushed for only 10 touchdowns in the past two seasons. Walter Payton once played here? Neither the Bears nor quarterback Cade McNown stand a chance until coach Dick Jauron develops a running game.

NFC West

The ram horns on the St. Louis helmet are a symbol of both pride and embarrassment—offensive pride, defensive embarrassment.

In 2000 the St. Louis Rams unleashed one of the most prolific offenses the NFL had ever seen, scoring 540 points. Only two teams in league history have scored more. Unfortunately for first-year coach Mike Martz, his defense was almost as giving as his offense was taking. St. Louis allowed an NFL-high 471 points—229 more than the Rams gave up under Dick Vermeil in 1999 on the way to an NFL championship. Cross-state rival Kansas City hung a humiliating 54 points on the Rams in October, and the season sped downhill from there. Only once did St. Louis hold the opposition under 20 points all season, and the Rams lost that December game to Carolina, 16-3. Consider this: Only three teams ever allowed as many as 300 points and still won a Super Bowl—much less 400, much less 471. So Martz had to find a way to shave at least 172 points off his defense to legitimize another run at a championship in 2001. Hint: You can't do it by merely tinkering.

So Martz blew it up. He fired coaches and most of his starters on defense. Tackle D'Marco Farr, linebacker Todd Collins and safety Keith Lyle were cut. He traded end Kevin Carter and let line-backer Mike Jones and cornerback Todd Lyght leave in free agency.

Martz hired Lovie Smith away from the Tampa Bay staff to implement the Buccaneer defensive scheme. He signed away safety Kim Herring in free agency from the NFL champion Baltimore Ravens to replace Lyle. He signed Pro Bowl linebacker Mark Fields to replace Collins, and Smith brought Don Davis with him from Tampa Bay to replace Jones. Then Martz acquired veteran Pro Bowl cornerback Aeneas Williams in a trade with Arizona to replace Lyght.

With three first-round picks last April, the Rams drafted defensive tackles Damione Lewis and Ryan Pickett and safety Adam Archuleta. Martz also found Tommy Polley, the best outside linebacker in the draft, in the second round. Lewis and Archuleta could walk in as rookie starters, and Pickett and Polley figure to play extensively. So everything is new on defense—players, coaches, scheme. Where there is new, there is hope.

"I know we let some good players out of here," Martz said. "But we had to make the changes we felt were necessary to give us a chance. This is what I feel comfortable with from a player and staff standpoint. We've addressed the attitude and speed of the defense. I'm extremely excited, because I know we can be very good on that side of the ball."

The Rams already know they are going to be very good on the other side of the ball. They line up the last two NFL MVPs on offense, quarterback Kurt Warner (1999) and halfback Marshall Faulk (2000).

There's potential for the Rams to be better on offense in 2001 than they were in 2000. St. Louis led the NFL in yards and points despite playing five and a half games without Warner (out with a broken finger). Sixteen games from Warner in 2001 could jeopardize the NFL scoring record of 556 points set by the 1998 Minnesota Vikings.

But it's not how many points the Rams score in 2001 that will dictate their fate. It's how many they allow.

The New Orleans Saints have no such defensive concerns. They have a top 10 defense anchored by one of the best lines in football. The Saints led the NFL in sacks with 66, and tackle La'Roi Glover was the league's individual leader with 17. Ends Darren Howard and Joe Johnson also were in double figures. Defense allowed the Saints to win the NFC West and become a playoff contender in 2000.

But the Saints will need more offense in 2001 to take that step from playoff contenders to Super Bowl contenders. Quarterback Aaron Brooks has started only seven career games, five in the regular season and two in the playoffs, and remains a question mark. But he has an offensive line that includes three first-round draft picks, a 1000-yard rusher (Ricky Williams) and a Pro Bowl receiver (Joe Horn) to ease his load.

The San Francisco 49ers built a defense overnight—drafting, developing and starting seven rookies in 2000. The rapid development of high draft picks Julian Peterson, John Engelberger, Ahmed Plummer and Jason Webster allowed the 49ers to become competitive on that side of the ball. Two more rookies join their number in 2001, defensive end Andre Carter and outside linebacker Jamie Winborn. Offense isn't a problem with Pro Bowl quarterback Jeff Garcia.

The Atlanta Falcons traded up for the first overall pick of the 2001 draft and used it on quarterback Michael Vick. But he left two years of eligibility on the table at Virginia Tech and could be two years away from the field in Atlanta. The Falcons sorely need running back Jamal Anderson to return to his 1998 form, when he led the NFC in rushing with 1846 yards. A knee injury ended his 1999 season after two games and continued to hamper him in 2000.

The Carolina Panthers were a 7-9 team a year ago with Hall of Famer Reggie White on defense and 3700-yard passer Steve Beuerlein on offense. Neither one is back this season. The Panthers won't intimidate anyone in 2001 with Jay Williams lining up at White's end spot and Jeff Lewis at Beuerlein's quarterback spot.

AFC East

The New York Jets have not been to a Super Bowl since the Sixties and have won only one division title since those AFL days. The Jets didn't need a head coach—they needed a miracle worker. Which made Herman Edwards the perfect hire.

The NFL already has witnessed one "Miracle of the Meadowlands," and Edwards performed it. He was playing defensive back for the Philadelphia Eagles in a 1978 game against the New York Giants. The Giants had the ball and the lead in the final minute, but instead of having quarterback Joe Pisarcik take a knee, the Giants inexplicably tried handing the ball off to Larry Csonka. The exchange was botched, Edwards scooped the bouncing football off the turf and raced 26 yards for the winning touchdown with 20 seconds remaining.

His NFL career took him from Philadelphia to Los Angeles and Atlanta as a player, then on to Kansas City and Tampa Bay as a coach before this triumphant return to the Meadowlands 23 years later as a first-time head coach.

"It's a long shot becoming a head coach in this league, much less a head coach in a building where you've made a play like that," Edwards said. "What are the odds? What are the odds of scoring a touchdown like that? You never know your fate. I guess I was just meant to wear green."

There were even stronger omens. The first time Edwards lined up as a starter in the NFL was in the Meadowlands against the Jets in the 1977 preseason. His first NFL interception came on a Joe Namath pass a month later in the regular season.

Edwards will coach a better team than the one he faced at the Meadowlands in 1977. Those Jets finished 3-11. These Jets are coming off a 9-7 season, but a December collapse cost them a playoff berth. After New York lost its final three games, Al Groh resigned as coach to become the head man at the University of Virginia.

That opened the door for Edwards, who inherits a team that has posted a 29-19 record over the past three years and reached an AFC title game. Quarterback Vinny Testaverde and running back Curtis Martin give the Jets two elite players on offense, and former first-round draft picks John Abraham, Shaun Ellis and Marvin Jones provide the base for a dominating defensive front seven.

The Jets missed Keyshawn Johnson and his playmaking ability on the flank last season. But new general manager Terry Bradway took steps to address that power outage by claiming fleet All-American wide receiver Santana Moss from Miami with his first draft pick last April. "We have a chance," Edwards said. "We have a good nucleus and some good young players. With a little luck and maybe a miracle play here and there, we're in the playoffs."

The team the Jets need to overcome offensively is the Indianapolis Colts. Defensively, it's the Miami Dolphins. The Colts have assembled an offensive juggernaut that rivals the vaunted Triplets that won three Super Bowls in Dallas. The Cowboys were the NFL's Team of the Decade in the Nineties with Troy Aikman throwing the ball, Michael Irvin catching it and Emmitt Smith running it. The Colts counter with Peyton Manning at quarterback, Edgerrin James at running back and Marvin Harrison at wide receiver. That cast finished among the NFL leaders in yards and points—and Indianapolis should be even better this season with the addition of number one draft pick Reggie Wayne, the wide receiver who lined up across from Moss at Miami.

But that doesn't fix the defense, which finished in the bottom third of the league. Indianapolis used its number two draft pick on safety Idrees Bashir and signed defensive tackle Christian Peter away from the New York Giants in free agency. But where's Bubba Smith when you really need him?

The Miami Dolphins play enough defense for the entire division. The Dolphins have premiere tacklers at all three levels: Tim Bowens and Jason Taylor up front, Zach Thomas at linebacker and Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain at cornerback. Miami continued to load up on that side of the ball by using its top draft pick on a defensive reserve, nickel cornerback Jamar Fletcher.

But the Dolphins went as far as they could offensively last season with journeymen Jay Fiedler at quarterback and Lamar Smith at running back. It wasn't far enough. Both Fiedler and Smith are back this year, and coach Dave Wannstedt has made marginal upgrades at wide receiver with free agents James McKnight and Dedric Ward.

The New England Patriots cling to the hope that a franchise quarterback like Drew Bledsoe can take them to a Super Bowl. But the Patriots can't run the ball: They finished 26th in the NFL last season. The cavalry didn't arrive in the offseason with reinforcements.

The Buffalo Bills continue to take a beating from the salary cap. Last year they parted ways with legends Bruce Smith, Thurman Thomas and Andre Reed. This offseason they said goodbye to quarterback Doug Flutie and Pro Bowl defensive tackle Ted Washington. Marcellus Wiley, the club's best young defensive lineman, also left in free agency. The Bills have a new general manager (Tom Donahoe) and coach (Gregg Williams) to take on this massive rebuilding project.

Afc Central

The Baltimore Ravens may be the best team in the NFL, but they aren't the team head coach Brian Billick wants them to be.

The Ravens won their first Super Bowl in 2000 because they fielded one of the great defenses in history. Baltimore allowed a record-low 165 points for a 16-game season and became even stingier in the postseason, giving up only one offensive touchdown in four games.

The Ravens were ultraconservative on offense, taking the ball away from quarterback Trent Dilfer and giving it to halfback Jamal Lewis. The offensive philosophy was simple—don't screw it up for the defense.

But that's not Billick. He was hired by the Ravens for his offensive expertise. He called the plays for the 1998 Minnesota Vikings, who set an NFL record by scoring 556 points. Billick wants the team to win its games 35–7, not 10–7. Frankly, he couldn't see himself holding his breath offensively for another season in Baltimore.

"To think we could go back and win it again the way we did last year would be ambitious at best," Billick said. "To make your defense go out and break the all-time scoring record is a lot to ask."

So the Ravens became bigger and more powerful on offense by signing free agent Leon Searcy, one of the game's elite right tackles. The team became faster and more versatile by using its number one draft pick on Arizona State's Todd Heap, college football's best tight end last year. Most important, Baltimore became more explosive by signing Pro Bowl quarterback Elvis Grbac in free agency. Billick again takes the ball out of the shaky hands of Dilfer, who didn't complete more than nine passes in any of Baltimore's three AFC playoff victories, and puts it in the steady hands of Grbac. He finished third in the NFL in passing yards (4169) and fourth in touchdowns (28) at Kansas City this past season.

"We think he can be the missing link for us," Billick said. "This is the first time, really, since I've been in the NFL that I have a guy I get to be with for a while. I've never had that. You look at Mike Holmgren with Brett Favre and Mike Shanahan with John Elway and think, Wouldn't it be nice to have that continuity year after year? It has to begin with the quarterback. I hope this is the guy." Everything else remains in place for a Baltimore repeat. The Ravens took only marginal hits in free agency, losing center Jeff Mitchell and safety Kim Herring. All five Pro Bowlers are back, including Defensive Player of the Year Ray Lewis.

But the best team in the NFL wasn't even the best team in the AFC Central a year ago. The Tennessee Titans won the division with a 13–3 record, forcing the 12–4 Ravens to take a wild-card route to the Super Bowl. As good as the Baltimore defense was a year ago, the Titans were better. It was Tennessee that led the NFL in defense, not the Ravens. The Titans allowed just 238 yards per game, nine fewer than the Ravens.

That Tennessee defense should be even better this season with the acquisition of end Kevin Carter, the NFL sack leader at St. Louis in 1999. The offense will improve with the return of lead receiver Kevin Dyson, who spent the final 14 weeks of the season on injured reserve with a knee injury.

Kordell Stewart has again resurrected his career with the Pittsburgh Steelers, giving coach Bill Cowher hope that his team is no longer a quarterback away. Stewart lost the job to Kent Graham last preseason but came off the bench twice during the season and wound up winning seven of his 11 starts. He again ran with authority, rushing for seven touchdowns, and made strides as a passer, completing better than 50 percent of his throws with more touchdowns (11) than interceptions (8).

The Steelers gave their top 10 defense an injection of youth with draft picks Casey Hampton at tackle and Kendrell Bell at linebacker.

The Jacksonville Jaguars don't need new bodies, just healthy ones. The Jaguars crashed from 14 victories in 1999 to seven in 2000 because they couldn't keep their best players on the field. Their 22 starters missed a combined 76 games because of injuries last season. At 21 games, the Super Bowl–winning Ravens missed fewer than a third of that. Pro Bowl running back Fred Taylor finished sixth in the NFL in rushing with 1399 yards despite missing three games. He now has 3354 yards in his three NFL seasons even though he has missed 10 games with injuries. Too bad the Jaguars can't keep him healthy.

There are 31 head-coaching jobs in the NFL, and Dick LeBeau has the worst one. He coaches the Cincinnati Bengals, who haven't been to the playoffs since 1990. He's the fourth Bengals head coach in the past 11 years. To attain job security, LeBeau needs Akili Smith to become a franchise quarterback. Smith has quality weapons in Peter Warrick, Darnay Scott and Chad Johnson.

The Cleveland Browns are on their second head coach in three years. After winning only five games in two seasons, Chris Palmer was fired and replaced by Butch Davis. Davis restored the University of Miami program to prominence in the late Nineties. But he may have left behind better players on campus. He cautions overzealous Cleveland fans not to expect miracles.

"We were 3–13 for a reason," Davis said. "You can't fix everything overnight. We'll fix what we can."

AFC West

The Baltimore Ravens are back to defend a Super Bowl championship. So is Dick Vermeil.

When last we left Vermeil, he was standing at midfield of the Georgia Dome, holding the Lombardi Trophy aloft as he was being showered with confetti. It was January 2000 and his St. Louis Rams had just defeated the Tennessee Titans to win the first Super Bowl in franchise history.

Vermeil retired from coaching after that victory, turning the Rams over to his top assistant, Mike Martz. St. Louis failed to defend that title last season, and now it's Vermeil's turn to see if he can fare better than his old team in his personal Super Bowl defense.

Vermeil is back in the NFL without ever leaving the Show-Me State. He has moved from the eastern edge of Missouri to the western edge, from St. Louis to Kansas City, from NFC to AFC.

"When I left, I never said I didn't enjoy coaching," Vermeil said. "I said I was going to go out a winner, and I was going to go home and be with my family. But when I got home, I missed it. I missed being the leader, I missed the game, I missed the people in the game."

Then Carl Peterson called. He's the president of the Kansas City Chiefs and a Vermeil confidant. He had coached under Vermeil at UCLA in the early Seventies, then followed Vermeil to the NFL, where he served as an assistant coach and later personnel director of the Philadelphia Eagles.

Three consecutive nonplayoff seasons are unacceptable in Kansas City. That hadn't happened since the Eighties. So after the Chiefs lost six of their last eight games to finish 7–9 under Gunther Cunningham, Peterson phoned his mentor, friend and possible coaching solution. "I had no intention of coming back," Vermeil said. "I told Carl I wasn't interested, and I wasn't. He said he wanted to come see me and I told him you can come if you want, but you're wasting your time. He came and persuaded me to come back. I talked to my wife about it and she missed it, too. She said, 'Let's go do it for at least three more years.'"

The Chiefs haven't been to a Super Bowl since 1970. An even greater challenge awaits Vermeil—no coach has ever taken three different franchises to a Super Bowl. Vermeil has taken the Eagles (1980) and Rams. Bill Parcells, Dan Reeves and Don Shula also have taken two franchises apiece.

Vermeil feels he could be closer with the Chiefs than he was when he arrived at Philadelphia in 1976 or St. Louis in 1997. He reached the Super Bowl in his fifth season with the Eagles and in the third with the Rams.

"I believe this is a good football team," Vermeil said. "How good, I don't know. But I believe we have enough players. I think this team could compete favorably with the division I just left. But I don't know what it's like playing in this division."

Vermeil has some St. Louis–type weapons to work with. Tony Gonzalez is the NFL's best tight end and Derrick Alexander is a 1300-yard wide receiver. Vermeil also brought along a triggerman from St. Louis, trading a first-round draft pick to the Rams for backup quarterback Trent Green.

"If you don't have a quarterback, it's hard to make plays," Vermeil said. "I've seen Trent do it. He can get the ball into the hands of people who make plays."

So can Brian Griese. After Griese took the Denver Broncos to 11 victories in 2000, club owner Pat Bowlen rewarded his Pro Bowl quarterback with a new $40 million contract. Expectations for the team are considerably higher this season with a healthier Griese and Terrell Davis. The two offensive catalysts missed a combined 17 games this past year with injuries, Griese with shoulder problems and Davis with ankle and lingering knee problems. Davis ran for 2000 yards in 1998.

The Oakland Raiders have the NFL's best ground game. Tyrone Wheatley and Napoleon Kaufman gave the AFC West champions a formidable 1–2 punch at tailback in 2000, and that position should be even stronger in 2001. Kaufman retired and the Raiders replaced him with Charlie Garner, who rushed for 1142 yards across the bay for the 49ers last season. Wheatley was a 1046-yard rusher in 2000.

But keep an eye on the Seattle Seahawks this season. Mike Holmgren inherited an overpaid, underachieving team when he took over as head coach in 1999, and it's taken him three offseasons to clean up his salary cap and roster. He has used four number one picks on offense the past two drafts, selecting running back Shaun Alexander, wide receiver Koren Robinson and blockers Chris McIntosh and Steve Hutchinson. He also traded for quarterback Matt Hasselbeck in the spring. Offense won for Holmgren in Green Bay, and it can win for him again in Seattle. "I'm comfortable with the makeup of this team, these type of players," Holmgren said. "But the quarterback has to play. It all boils down to that."

The San Diego Chargers were the worst team in the NFL last season. So they brought in a new general manager (John Butler) and a new offensive coordinator (Norv Turner), plus the best quarterback (Drew Brees) and running back (LaDainian Tomlinson) in college football. The Chargers are still a bad team—but they are now a bad team with some hope.

Playboy's Picks

NFC East

Philadelphia........11–5

NY Giants*........10–

Arizona........8–8

Washington........6–10

Dallas........4–12

NFC Central

Tampa Bay........12–4

Green Bay*........10–6

Minnesota........9–7

Detroit........7–9

Chicago........5–11

NFC West

St. Louis........12–4

New Orleans*........10–6

San Francisco........8–8

Atlanta........5–11

Carolina........3–13

AFC East

NY Jets........11–5

Indianapolis*........10–6

Miami........9–7

New England........7–9

Buffalo........4–12

AFC Central

Baltimore........13–3

Tennessee*........11–5

Pittsburgh........9–7

Jacksonville........7–9

Cincinnati........4–12

Cleveland........3–13

AFC West

Denver........11–5

Seattle*........10–6

Oakland........9–7

Kansas City........6–10

San Diego........4–12

AFC champion: Baltimore NFC champion: Tampa Bay

Super Bowl Champion: Baltimore

* Wild card playoff qualifiers

Despite the hits to their roster, don't ever rule out the Vikings. Green knows how to play this game.