Baseball 2002

Bud Selig, the Minnesota Twins and the Montreal Expos are alive for another year. Last year's amazing baseball season was marred by a bizarre winter in which franchises, ownerships, schedules, revenues and bargaining agreements were all cast in doubt. Baseball will have a hard time matching the drama of last season's pennant races. Barry Bonds hit 73 homers and the Arizona Diamondbacks rode horses named Schilling and Johnson to an improbable World Series title. The Seattle Mariners, with the help of Ichiro Suzuki, won 116 games. The Twins came out of nowhere to challenge in the AL Central. The Cubs and the Phillies showed signs of life as well. We saw fantastic new stadiums in Pittsburgh and Milwaukee and the retirements of Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken. Seven managers quit or were fired. For the first time since D Day, baseball suspended regular season play. And we'll probably soon see the end of several longstanding franchises. Americans used to be able to rely on the stability of baseball in times of trouble. Not anymore. But even with all the turmoil, another season is under way. So let's get to it.

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The American League East has three good teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Jays) that beat up on two bad teams (Baltimore, Tampa Bay). Now that teams typically play 19 games against opponents in their own divisions, some franchises have it easier than others. The retooled Yankees will take the East and the American League pennant. The AL Central is a three-team race, with Chicago, Cleveland and Minnesota all capable of prevailing. Frank Thomas will put up large numbers, so we'll take the Chisox. The AL West is the league's strongest division, with improvements in Texas and Anaheim cutting into the Athletics' and Mariners' wins. But Seattle will win again.

In the National League East it's a dead heat between Atlanta and the Mets. Let's say Gary Sheffield makes the difference and the Braves take the division. The Central has three tough teams in St. Louis, Houston and Chicago. Based on their strong second-half performance in 2001, we'll go with the Cardinals. We were wrong about the Diamondbacks last year, but we think time will finally catch up with them this season. On the strength of a good off-season, we favor the Giants in the NL West. St. Louis is our pick for the NL pennant. The Athletics will ride their pitching to a wild-card berth. In the National League the Astros will get the wild card (with the Mets, Phillies and Diamondbacks all in the hunt). Even as the American League's postseason dominance fades, the Yankees look stronger this year. For the AL's most valuable player, we'll go out on a limb with Alex Rodriguez. In the National, Chipper Jones comes up big.

American League East

With the Yankees three outs away from their fourth consecutive crown, Mariano Rivera botched a throw to second on Damian Miller's sacrifice bunt. After 23 straight postseason saves, the game's best closer blew one, and an NL team won the Series. The Yankees responded to such ignominy by restructuring with a vengeance--adding Jason Giambi, Robin Ventura, Steve Karsay, David Wells, John Vander Wal, Rondell White, Ron Coomer, Mike Thurman and Alberto Castillo. No wonder the Bronx payroll is approaching $150 million. But the Bombers didn't need that much help. As New Yorkers are fond of pointing out, the Yankees are both rich and smart. Under the steady influence of Joe Torre, New York went 30-18 in one-run games, second best in the major leagues. By going 39-16 against Baltimore, Boston and Tampa Bay, they took advantage of soft stretches in the schedule. This year the team should win even more games. Giambi, who led the AL in on-base and slugging percentages, has only 25 hits in 102 career at bats at Yankee Stadium, but he will adjust to the right-field porch. Second baseman Alfonso Soriano will soon be a star. Robin Ventura will help at third, and eagle-eyed rookie Nick Johnson (nephew of Larry Bowa) will be an improvement at DH. Karsay and unheralded Mike Stanton (9-4, 2.58) give the Yanks a sturdy setup duo. Roger Clemens, 39, will be hard-pressed to repeat his 20-3, 3.51 season, but it doesn't matter, because Mike Mussina (17-11, 3.15) and Andy Pettitte (15-10, 3.99) will pick up the slack. Ho-hum, the Yankees win the pennant. And the World Series.

The Red Sox had the second-highest payroll in baseball in 2001 but were first in the majors when it came to dysfunction. After playing the Yankees tough in the first half, the team lost Nomar Garciaparra, Pedro Martinez and catcher Jason Varitek to injuries. Jimy Williams managed like a zombie, using 93 lineups in 118 games and not bothering to hold runners on base (opponents stole 223 bases). The whole thing blew up in August and September, when Williams was canned and Boston went 22-34. Manny Ramirez ended the year in a funk, hitting .248 after June 5 and feuding with management. Closer Ugueth Urbina got into an airplane scuffle with Tim Wakefield and Trot Nixon. General manager Dan Duquette had to make changes. He shipped volatile outfielder Carl Everett to Texas for lefty Darren Oliver, signed free agents John Burkett to pitch and Johnny Damon to hit leadoff, picked up Tony Clark off waivers to play first and traded for Dustin Hermanson (14--13 with the Cards). The pitching will help, since Fenway has become the third-toughest park in the majors to homer in. Joe Kerrigan is smart enough to cop a wild card. But if Pedro is hurt and Nomar doesn't come all the way back, forget it.

The Blue Jays started out 2001 on an offensive binge, going 16-9 through April. They went 10-18 in May, and that was the season. A year after hitting 244 home runs, the offense died. Toronto struck out a lot (third most in the AL) and didn't hit much (10th in AL in batting average and on-base percentage). General manager Gord Ash was given the heave-ho and was replaced by J.P. Ricciardi. Talk radio to the contrary, Ricciardi is doing more than cutting payroll. He sent Brad Fullmer to Anaheim to make room for Vernon (continued on page 147)Baseball 2002(continued from page 110) Wells, who's finally ready. To shore up a rotation that could be pretty good, the Jays shipped Paul Quantrill and infielder Cesar Izturis to Los Angeles for Luke Prokopec. The outfield, with Shannon Stewart (.316, 103 runs) and Jose Cruz (34 HRs, 32 stolen bases), is first-class. Ricciardi is rolling the dice with his young infield. Alongside Carlos Delgado (39 HRs, 102 RBI), the Jays will go with Eric Hinske at third (obtained from Oakland via a trade for Billy Koch), 22-year-old Felipe Lopez at short and 24-year-old Orlando Hudson (.304 in AAA) at second. Lopez will be an improvement over Alex Gonzalez, who was traded to the Cubs for Felix Heredia. New closer Kelvim Escobar (third-best AL pitcher with runners on base) will even be better than Koch. Ricciardi needs help at catching (rookie Josh Phelps is probably a year away), but this team is hungry and can hit. If the infield plays defense, the Jays could make noise this season.

Last year it was Vinny Castilla, Fred McGriff and Greg Vaughn. But the old guys were a bust, and Tampa scored a league-worst 672 runs. After a 4-10 start, Hal McRae replaced manager Larry Rothschild and Castilla was released on May 10. This year's emphasis is on pitching and defense, "heart and hustle," as the Devil Rays' billboards have it. The Rays, the youngest team in the majors by season's end, committed 139 errors (better only than San Diego). The pitching was serviceable, considering the way last year started. After the All-Star break, Tampa had the league's fourth-lowest ERA. With Jesus Colome, Victor Zambrano and Travis Phelps, the bullpen is well stocked. Left-handers Joe Kennedy and Nick Bierbrodt (acquired from Arizona for Albie Lopez) anchor the starting staff. Tanyon Sturtze (8-5, 3.68 in the second half) can shut down the best teams. It's hard not to pull for the star-crossed Rays. They have talent--catcher Toby Hall, 2B Brent Abernathy, outfielders Carl Crawford and Josh Hamilton--but they still have to face the Yankees, Red Sox and Jays for more than a third of their games. The Rays have never won 70 games. With the threat of contraction hanging over the franchise, they may never get the chance.

After finishing at 63-98 and posting their fourth straight losing season, the Orioles were expected to be big players in the off-season free agent bazaar. But it was a quiet winter in Baltimore. Owner Peter Angelos quashed a trade that would have brought over Phillies star Scott Rolen, and the O's halfheartedly pursued Juan Gonzalez, who wound up back in Texas. Aside from signing Marty Cordova and trading for centerfielder Chris Singleton, Baltimore's biggest move was to restore Camden Yards to its original dimensions--bringing in the fences seven feet. We're not sure how much good that will do the Orioles, who went 30-50 at home and were outhomered 94--58. Closer fences won't help a team that was shut out a league-high 14 times, held to three runs or less in 68 games and hit a league-low .248. Even with a little pop from Cordova, Tony Batista (a smart waiver pickup in June) and a healthy David Segui, Baltimore still has one of the AL's weakest lineups. Things aren't as bleak on the mound, where youngsters Jason Johnson, Willis Roberts and Josh Towers showed promise last season. The first year of the post-Ripken era will be a lean one. Angelos believes the O's can contend in 2003, but a look at the farm system suggests he needs to revise his timetable.

American League Central

A 14--29 start was too much for the White Sox to overcome in their bid to repeat as division champs. Frank Thomas' season-ending injury in late April left a hole in the lineup, and 11 pitchers, including three starters, came up lame. The Pale Hose made strides in the second half, playing even with the Tribe and getting good auditions from several young hurlers. In his first full season, Mark Buehrle notched 16 wins and had the league's fourth-best ERA (3.23). Buehrle joins Todd Ritchie (37-35 over the past three seasons in Pittsburgh) at the top of the rotation. Jim Parque will be counted on to come back from a bum shoulder and establish himself as a reliable starter. Jon Garland and either Dan Wright or Gary Glover need to step forward. Ace closer Keith Foulke (43 saves, 2.33) heads a bullpen that will be better with the return of four relievers (Bobby Howry, Antonio Osuna, Lorenzo Barcelo and Kelly Wunsch). If the Big Hurt is healthy, the South Siders will put runs on the board. Even without Frank, the Sox clubbed the second-most homers in the AL, and their .268 team batting average was the league's fifth-best. Right-fielder Magglio Ordonez has emerged as one of the game's most productive hitters. Last season he became the first AL batter to record a .300 average, 30 home runs, 100 RBI, 40 doubles and 25 stolen bases. Paul Konerko (32 homers, 99 RBI) is a tough out at first, and leftfielder Carlos Lee is coming into his own. Top prospects Joe Crede and Joe Borchard could ease into the lineup by midseason. The Sox may be a year off, but they should be good enough to win the Central.

The John Hart era ended when the Cleveland Indians blew a 2-1 lead to Seattle in the league division series. New GM Mark Shapiro gets to clean up Hart's mess. Last season the Indians seemed bored having to run around the bases. This year Shapiro is emphasizing pitching and hustle. Many of the changes are dictated by budget. In trading high-maintenance star Roberto Alomar to the Mets for Of Matt Lawton, relief pitcher Jerrod Riggan and outfield project Alex Escobar, Cleveland got snookered. But Shapiro earns points for getting younger. The Tribe bullpen, the hardest-working relief crew in the AL, is one of baseball's deepest. The starters' 5.26 ERA sucked. The Tribe will call on Ryan Drese (3.44 in 362/3 innings in 2001) and Danys Baez (2.50 in 501/3 bullpen innings) to round out the rotation behind 21-year-old C.C. Sabathia and Bartolo Colon (who threw 3650 pitches last year, most in the league). Offensively, the Indians need a lift from human air conditioner Russell Branyan (37 homers in 550 career at bats) and centerfielder Milton Bradley. If the Tribe gets any pitching from Charles Nagy, Chuck Finley or Jaret Wright, they again have a chance for the division title. There will likely be more housecleaning--perhaps by midseason. Shapiro will be out from under most of Hart's bad contracts in 2003, and there's an abundance of pitching in the minors.

The Twins were baseball's feel-good story for much of the 2001 season. Despite having the lowest opening day payroll in the game, Minnesota got off to a 20-7 start and stood atop the Central at the All-Star break. They faded in the second half but managed a second-place finish and their first winning season since 1992. The good feelings didn't carry over, though, as the Twins shared winter billing with the Expos on Bud Selig's contraction hit list. They were granted a stay of execution by the Minnesota Supreme Court, but with no stadium deal in sight and an owner in a hurry to cash out, the franchise's future looks grim. The outlook on the field is a lot better. The Twins boast a Gold Glove centerfielder (Torii Hunter, 27 homers, 92 RBI), one of baseball's best infields (led by All-Star shortstop Cristian Guzman) and a trio of starters (Eric Milton, Brad Radke, Joe Mays) who combined for 47 wins. New manager Ron Gardenhire will have to find some help at the bottom of the rotation and in the bullpen--he could also use more power in the outfield--but his team should be in contention again this season. This could be the last year for the Twins in the Twin Cities, so Minnesotans ought to get out to the Hump and root for the (for now) home team.

It was a short honeymoon for the Detroit Tigers, who drew only 1.9 million paying customers in Comerica Park's second season. Fans didn't have much to cheer for: Visiting teams hit well in Comerica, but the Tigers managed only 58 homers at home in their eighth straight losing season. The team was 17-17 on May 12 but went on a 2-12 slide and decided to spend the rest of the season bickering. The Tigers took a beating in the uneven schedule. They compiled a 42-44 record against teams outside the AL Central but lost 52 times (against 24 wins) to teams in their division. Minnesota beat them 15 out of 19 games. The Tigers had the fourth-worst offense in the AL. First baseman Tony Clark was Detroit's lone rep at the 2001 All-Star game. Worried about his back (and his big contract) and unable to trade him, Detroit waived Clark, who was snapped up by Boston. The Tigers made out like bandits when they sent Juan Encarnacion to Cincinnati for Dmitri Young. The team anticipates big things from Dean Palmer, who missed much of last year with an injured shoulder. Manager Phil Garner plans to use inexperienced Robert Fick (.235 after the All-Star break) in right. Twenty-year-old shortstop Omar Infante could be a regular this season. The starting staff is iffy, with Jeff Weaver (13-16, 4.08) and knuckleballer Steve Sparks pulling most of the weight. Nate Cornejo pitched well in the minors and will probably help. The bullpen is shaky, too, but Matt Anderson has hit his stride as a closer. The best thing to happen in Detroit was the hiring of Dave Dombrowski as team president. He'll put GM Randy Smith and Garner on the hot seat, and he will revive the Tigers' fallow farm system.

Go figure the 65-97 Royals. Jermaine Dye, Johnny Damon and Rey Sanchez were dealt because management said it couldn't afford to keep them. The Royals even canceled their winter banquet to save money. So why did Kansas City sign 33-year-old free agent Chuck Knoblauch (.250 with the Yankees in 2001) and 30-year-old Michael Tucker (.252 last year, with a career-high 61 RBI)? That just takes at bats away from younger players such as Dee Brown and Mark Quinn--or Brandon Berger, who hit 40 home runs last year in AA Wichita. Why give money to "proven veterans" such as pitcher Paul Byrd and catcher Brent Mayne when you're going nowhere? And what exactly does a manager have to do to get fired? Going into his sixth season Tony Muser has won 309 games while losing 416. KC does have decent young players. Based on his incredible second half, clutch-hitting centerfielder Carlos Beltran (24 HRs, 101 RBI, 31 steals in 32 attempts) is ready for the top shelf. Mike Sweeney hit .304 and had 29 round-trippers. The pitching should be better this year. Workhorse Jeff Suppan has pitched 644 innings over the past three seasons. Jose Rosado is expected back after nearly two years away on sick leave. The franchise has a surfeit of young arms--Chris George, Kris Wilson, Jeff Austin, Chad Durbin, Dan Reichert, Mike MacDougal--and the Royals have nothing to lose by pitching them (last year's staff was the AL's 11th best). Two years ago it looked as if they were on the way up, but now the Royals look like they're sinking to the bottom of the AL Central.

American League West

Alex Rodriguez wasn't far off the mark last spring when he said, possibly in jest, "The Mariners can win 110 to 115 games without me." Despite losing future Hall of Famers Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey and Rodriguez over the previous three years, Seattle won 116 games to tie the 1906 Cubs for most wins in a season. The Mariners led the AL in hitting, fielding and pitching--the fourth team ever to lead in all three. They also were tops in stolen bases and on-base percentage. On the strength of a 40-12 start, Lou Piniella's squad led wire to wire (only the eighth team ever to do so--Lou's 1990 Reds was another). But the magic came to an end in eerie Gotham. After struggling to get by Cleveland in a tense division series, the Mariners were again spooked in the Bronx and fell to the Yankees in five games. American League MVP Ichiro Suzuki and Bret Boone keyed the Mariners' banner year. Boone, who led the AL in RBI with 141, set league records for RBI and homers (37) by a second baseman. Ichiro led the league in batting (.350), hits (242, the most since Bill Terry in 1930), stolen bases (56) and hitting with runners in scoring position (.449). He was the first player since Jackie Robinson to lead the majors in hits and stolen bases. Centerfielder Mike Cameron came into his own with 25 homers and 110 RBI. Jeff Cirillo (obtained in a trade for Jose Paniagua) will be an upgrade over David Bell at third. Aaron Sele has gone to Anaheim, but there are plenty of starters left, including Freddy Garcia, Jamie Moyer, Paul Abbott, John Halama, Joel Pineiro and James Baldwin. Gil Meche (who's out until June) and minor leaguers Ryan Anderson and Rafael Soriano look ready to go. Seattle's great pen will be led by Kazuhiro Sasaki (45 saves) with support from Diamond Arthur Rhodes (8-0, 1.72 ERA), Jeff Nelson (2.76) and free agent Shigetoshi Hasegawa. GM Pat Gillick has figured out that it pays to spread out your payroll and not tie up too much in any one player. (The Mariners are third in the majors in local broadcast revenue, so Gillick has a lot of dough to work with.) Seattle won't match last year's win total, but they'll take the West again.

Such plays decide a franchise's fortunes. The Yankees, down 2-0 in the league division series, held a 1-0 lead in game three when the scuffling Athletics fought back in the bottom of the seventh. With two outs and Jeremy Giambi on first, Terrence Long doubled to right and Giambi was waved home. Shane Spencer's throw missed the cutoff men, but Derek Jeter--in the right spot to cover the overthrow--made a backhanded flip to the plate, where Jorge Posada tagged a surprised Giambi. End of rally, start of Yankees comeback. Giambi's decision not to slide may turn out to be a defining moment for baseball in the East Bay. The A's lost 18 of their first 26 games, and many figured their cause was lost. But Billy Beane, the best general manager in the game, stuck with free agent Jason Giambi and picked up Jermaine Dye from the Royals in July. Dye responded with 59 RBI in 61 games, and the team went 58-17 after the break, the best second half since the 1954 Indians. The A's will again be back in the postseason. There's enormous talent, despite the departures of Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon and closer Jason Isringhausen. With Tim Hudson (3.37), Mark Mulder (3.45), Barry Zito (2.29 and 11-2 in the second half) and surprising Cory Lidle (13-6, 3.59), Oakland starters had the best ERA in the league. Billy Koch comes from Toronto to replace Isringhausen. Beane made a great trade with Texas to pick up highly touted first baseman Carlos Pena. Along with David Justice, Pena will do a creditable job in Giambi's absence. Terrence Long, Eric Chavez (32 HRs, 114 RBI--the best year ever by an Oakland third baseman), catcher Ramon Hernandez and shortstop Miguel Tejada (31 HRs) will provide the lumber. Will Oakland hitters look like stiffs when they play New York again?

The Anaheim Angels dropped 19 of their last 21 and finished a franchise-worst 41 games out of first. It was a decent season, nevertheless--that's life in the AL West. But the Angels' off-season was more interesting. As always, there were mixed messages from the suits at Disney. A rebuilding trade that would have sent Darin Erstad to the White Sox was nixed by upper management. Then the front office committed $24 million to add Aaron Sele (69-35 over the past four seasons) to the rotation and shipped disgruntled Mo Vaughn back East to the Mets for Kevin Appier. Is Disney playing to win or is this window dressing for the long-rumored sale? The addition of Sele and Appier gives Anaheim one of the AL's best rotations. With Ramon Ortiz (13-10), Jarrod Washburn (11-10) and Scott Schoeneweis (10-11), the Angels have five starters who each worked at least 193 innings last season. Closer Troy Percival--who had his issues with the front office--signed a two-year extension. The pen will be lighter without Shigetoshi Hasegawa and Mike Holtz, but Al Levine (2.38 in 752/3 innings) and Ben Weber (3.42 in 681/3 innings) should fill their shoes. The question is whether the Angels can score runs. Troy Glaus (41 HRs, 108 RBI) and Garret Anderson (194 hits, 123 RBI) were the only consistent hitters in Anaheim last year. Brad Fullmer, acquired from Toronto, should help at the DH (a weak spot for the Angels, who used 15 players to hit a combined .212 with 56 RBI). If Anaheim gets comeback seasons from Tim Salmon and Erstad, they could make a run at the wild card.

Last spring, the Rangers talked about winning the pennant. Newcomers Alex Rodriguez, Andres Galarraga and Ken Caminiti would allow them to bludgeon the opposition. Texas scored 890 runs and hit 246 homers, but had the worst pitching in all of baseball and ended up 73-89, good for last place in the AL West. The Rangers won two more games with Rodriguez than without him. The Rangers led, at one point, in 53 of their 89 losses. So new GM John Hart went shopping with Tom Hicks' money. In addition to bringing in a few more hitters, Hart loaded up on relievers, signing Todd Van Poppel, Jay Powell, Steve Woodard, Dan Miceli, Rudy Seanez and Hector Carrasco to fill seats in the bullpen. The big haul was Chan Ho Park, who inked a five-year $65 million contract to become the ace. One possible glitch: Over the past five years, Park had a 4.66 ERA away from Dodger Stadium. He'll join Kenny Rogers (6.19), Doug Davis, Ismael Valdes, Hideki Irabu, Dave Burba (6.21 with Cleveland) and Mario Ramos (who came from the A's in the odd trade for Carlos Pena) in the starting rotation. John Rocker, who brings his circus act from Cleveland, will push Jeff Zimmerman (28 saves in 31 chances). The Rangers won't struggle to score runs. Alex Rodriguez, coming off the best year ever by a shortstop (.318, 52 HRs, 201 hits), will be supported by a better crew. Rafael Palmeiro (47 home runs) has hit at least 38 homers for the past seven seasons. A surprisingly weak outfield (10th in the AL in RBI) will be strengthened by the arrival of Juan Gonzalez (.325, 140 RBI) and Carl Everett. But catcher Ivan Rodriguez, who'll be a free agent after this year, could be on the way out. If Hart finds enough pitching--and if Jerry Narron can keep this fractious bunch together--the Rangers may break even. But they're at least a year away from making a run in the West.

National League East

The Braves were lucky to get to the league championship series last year. They won only 88 games and had to fight the Phillies right until the end. Despite a losing record at home, and an offense that outscored only three NL teams, Atlanta won its 10th straight divisional title. They beat Larry Dierker's Astros in the league division series but fell apart in a pivotal fourth game of the LCS against Arizona, giving up six unearned runs on four errors. Attendance was off again, and even Jimmy Carter doesn't do the tomahawk chop the way he used to. But as long as the Braves have Maddux and Glavine, they keep winning. The Braves' starters, who combined for a 3.54 ERA, were again the NL's best. (The Braves have allowed the fewest runs in the league for 10 straight years.) Glavine was 16-7 with a 3.57 ERA. Maddux (17-11, 3.05) hasn't had an ERA above 3.57 since the Dow was below 2000. He has won at least 15 games in 14 consecutive seasons--a feat equaled only by Cy Young. The pen was second best in the NL last season, but it will be better now with John Smoltz (10 saves in 11 opportunities, 1.59) in for a full year as closer. With John Burkett back in the American League and with Kevin Millwood's career on the rocks (he was 18-7, 2.68 in 1999; 7-7, 4.31 in 2001), the starting staff could be thin. But free agent Albie Lopez will get the Leo Mazzone treatment and Jason Marquis (2.69 in 11 postbreak starts) looks ready. As usual, there are a boatload of hurlers (Tim Spooneybarger, Damian Moss, Billy Sylvester) coming from the minors. Gary Sheffield will definitely energize the offense. Shef, who hasn't had an on-base percentage under .400 since 1994, should slug .600 in Atlanta. He'll make up one third of the game's most potent outfield. (With 34-year-old Vinny Castilla returning to Atlanta to play third, Chipper Jones moves to left.) Andruw Jones will be helped by Sheffield's presence in the lineup. Chipper, who had 76 extra-base hits, became the first third baseman to put together six consecutive 100 RBI seasons. He'll see more pitches batting in front of Sheffield. First base ought to be fun to watch, with Wes Helms (.222, 36 RBI) and 37-year-old B.J. Surhoff trying to supplant Julio Franco, who began his big-league career 20 years ago in Philadelphia. The Braves have three fine young infielders, with Rafael Furcal back from injury and Marcus Giles vying for time with 20-year-old shortstop Wilson Betemit and Mark DeRosa. Look for Atlanta to make it 11 straight.

The Mets were a shell of their former selves last season. A year after making it to the World Series, they barely broke even, slipping to third place in the NL East with an 82-80 record. The problem? An anemic offense that hit .249 and scored the fewest runs of any outfit in baseball. General manager Steve Phillips got busy and overhauled the lineup, adding a dozen new players. The big prize is Roberto Alomar, perhaps the best second baseman of his era, who came over from Cleveland at surprisingly little cost. The biggest risk is Mo Vaughn, who missed last season with a torn biceps tendon. Free agent Roger Cedeno and Jeromy Burnitz (acquired as part of an 11-player, three-team trade) return to Flushing to patrol the outfield. Manager Bobby Valentine calls this the best-hitting team the Mets have ever had. But the 2002 mound corps won't be the team's best ever. Beyond Al Leiter, there are questions about the durability of new starters Jeff D'Amico (12-7 with a 2.66 ERA in 2000), Shawn Estes and Pedro Astacio. Leiter and Mike Piazza show signs of wear, and Edgardo Alfonzo's back bothered him last season (.243, 49 RBI). If the players stay healthy--and that's a big if--the Metropolitans could upset the Braves.

On the strength of a 21-game turnaround, the long-floundering Phillies nearly went from worst to first. They settled for second place and their first winning season since 1993. This raises hopes along the Schuylkill, but the Phils will have a hard time keeping up with the Mets and Braves in 2002. General manager Ed Wade wasn't able to do much to improve the team over the winter. He tried to get pitchers John Smoltz and Aaron Sele, but had to settle for Terry Adams, a career reliever who had success as a starter in Los Angeles. If he's healthy, Adams will pitch behind Robert Person (15-7, 4.19) and Randy Wolf. Brandon Duckworth and either David Coggin or Nelson Figueroa fill out a pretty good starting five. The bullpen, an embarrassment in 2000 when it lost 37 games with a league-high 5.72 ERA, was a strength in 2001. Jose Mesa (2.34) converted 42 of 46 save opportunities and allowed only four homers in 691/3 innings. Students of Mesa's game may question his ability to repeat such a performance. The lineup gets a boost with the return of catcher Mike Lieberthal, who missed most of last season after tearing up his knee. The Philadelphia offense blends speed and power, with Scott Rolen (25 HRs, 107 RBI), Pat Burrell (27 HRs, 89 RBI), Bobby Abreu (31 HRs, 110 RBI, 36 SBs) and Travis Lee providing the clout, and All-Star shortstop Jimmy Rollins (46 SBs) and second sacker Marlon Anderson lighting up the basepaths. There's more talent in the minors--watch out for Marlon Byrd (.316, 28 HRs in AA), who will eventually take centerfield away from Doug Glanville. This season will make or break 2001 Manager of the Year Larry Bowa. If free-agent-in-waiting Rolen is traded, the Phillies won't be able to play with the big boys. But if he signs or stays the year, Philadelphia could win the wild card.

Thanks mostly to impressive years from Cliff Floyd (31 HRs, 123 runs) and Kevin Millar (.931 OPS), the Marlins scored a franchise record 742 runs last season. And Florida has the best young starting rotation (Brad Penny, Ryan Dempster, A.J. Burnett, Matt Clement and Josh Beckett) since the 1969 Mets. That's the good news in Miami. Attendance was abysmal, second worst in the majors. Players groused and threw tantrums for most of the year. A 9-20 August killed any hope of respectability. But virtually nothing could be done over the off-season because no one was sure who owned the team. Team owner John Henry, who bought into the Red Sox franchise, sold the Marlins to ex-Expos owner Jeffrey Loria, the miracle worker of Montreal. A month before spring training, Marlins employees were told to look elsewhere for work because Loria was bringing his staff with him from Canada. It may be unfair to expect new manager Jeff Torborg and GM Larry Beinfest to do much more than learn the names of their players, but the Marlins might surprise us this season.

The Expos will walk the plank after this season. Already a ghost team, they have no owner, no management, no coaches and no future (except, perhaps, in Washington). Last year, attendance was only 642,743; the AA team in Round Rock, Texas drew more fans. Baseball could have worked in Quebec. The team had 2.3 million customers in 1983 but ran into terrible luck. If not for Rick Monday's ninth-inning homer off Steve Rogers in game five of 1981's NLCS--and if not for the strike that ruined 1994, when the Expos (at 74-40) were the best team in baseball--French baseball would have a future. Inept ownership hasn't helped. Claude Brochu and Jeffrey Loria finished off any chance this franchise may have had. If Bud Selig wanted to save the Expos, he'd move them to New Jersey. Failing that, he'd swap them to the AL East, where they would play 28 home games with the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees. But no one is interested in saving Montreal baseball. In preparation for their final run at the NL pennant, the Expos picked up pitcher Ed Vosberg, outfielders Lyle Mouton and Glen Barker and bon vivant Jose Canseco. Manager Frank Robinson will have an interesting time running these lame canards. And Vlad will look good in pinstripes.

National League Central

The Cardinals kicked into high gear in the second half but came up short against the Astros on the final day of the season. That dropped the Redbirds into the wild card slot and sent them on the road to Arizona, where they ran into he-man Curt Schilling. The Diamondbacks' right-handed ace held the Cards to one run over 18 innings and bested Matt Morris in two classic pitching duels. Look for the Cards to go further in the postseason this year. They'll make do without Mark McGwire, who turned down a $30 million contract extension after struggling all year with a bum knee. Big Mac will be missed in St. Louis, but ex-Yank Tino Martinez should be a more than adequate replacement at first. He'll complement a powerful lineup that's led by outfielders J.D. Drew (.323, 27 homers) and Jim Edmonds (.304, 30 homers, 110 RBI) and Rookie of the Year third baseman Albert Pujols (.329, 37 homers, 130 RBI). St. Louis starters combined for a league-high 75 wins and the NL's third-best ERA (3.97). The Cards boast two frontline stoppers, Matt Morris (22-8, 3.16) and Darryl Kile (16-11, 3.09), as well as a good supporting cast. If Woody Williams and Bud Smith pitch as well this year as they did in the second half of last season and Rick Ankiel regains his control, the Cardinals will easily have the league's best rotation. Relief pitching, a weakness last year, was tightened up with the addition of free agent signee Jason Isringhausen, who'll take over the closer spot and allow manager Tony La Russa to make better use of durable lefty Steve Kline. The Cards look to be the class of the league and have a good shot at their first World Series since 1987.

"It's a recurring theme, or nightmare, isn't it? We didn't come up with the big hits, but you've heard that story before." That was Jeff Bagwell's comment after the Astros were swept by the Braves in the first round of the playoffs. Houston, which has taken the Central four of the past five seasons, hasn't won a postseason series in its 40-year history. In seven series, the Stros have hit .203 and scored 2.6 runs a game. Like it or not, the Astros could be back for another postseason. Houston boasts a talented core of young arms headed by Wade Miller (16-8, 3.40) and Rookie of the Year runner-up Roy Oswalt (14-3, 2.73). Vets Shane Reynolds and Dave Mlicki aren't bad. Chris Redding or Carlos Hernandez--both of whom impressed as rookies--will get a chance in the starting rotation. The pen features ace closer Billy Wagner and setup man Octavio Dotel, who led major league relievers with 128 strikeouts (in only 84 innings). Even without Moises Alou, Houston's outfield remains deadly. The newest Killer B, Lance Berkman (.331, 31 homers, 126 RBI), led the majors with 55 doubles and is a legitimate MVP candidate. The team counts on Richard Hidalgo to rebound from a season in which his numbers dropped (.314 to .275 and 44 homers to 19), and Daryle Ward finally gets a shot in left. On the left side of the infield, rookie Morgan Ensberg could stick at third and slick-fielding Adam Everett is a good bet to take over at short alongside Craig Biggio. Maybe all those Enron signs can be sold on eBay.

Jumping out of the gate with a 15-9 April, the Cubs raced to a 23-game improvement in 2001, the second-best in baseball. But they faded down the stretch. Led by 20-game winner Jon Lieber, Kerry Wood, Jason Bere and 23-year-old Juan Cruz, the Cubs' starting staff was fifth-best in the league. The bullpen was the North Siders' secret weapon, with Tom Gordon, Kyle Farnsworth (107 strikeouts in 82 innings) and Jeff Fassero fronting a staff augmented this year by lefty Jesus Sanchez (acquired from Florida) and rookie right-hander Scott Chiasson. With 160 RBI--the third-highest total in league history--Sammy Sosa drove in 94 more runs than any of his teammates. He's become the most productive hitter in baseball in a park that abuses hitters. Sammy was walked intentionally 37 times, which may have stemmed from manager Don Baylor's predilection for small ball. (The Cubs led the majors in sacrifice bunts.) Free agent signee Moises Alou (.331, 27 HRs, 108 RBI in Houston) takes pressure off Sosa. Fred McGriff (who hit .282 with 12 HRs in 49 games with Chicago) will help, although Wrigley is a brutal park for lefties. With Eric Young and Ricky Gutierrez lost to free agency, the Cubs have a new double-play combo this season. Alex Gonzalez, brought over from Toronto, will field the ball well at short, and either Delino DeShields or rookie Bobby Hill will lead off and play second. Reinforcements are on the way. Watch for USC right-hander Mark Prior (the second pick in the 2001 draft) and Carlos Zambrano (10-5, 3.88 in AAA Iowa) to be in the bigs by July. The Cubs probably won't win the division this year, but with their farm system, they'll be a force by 2003. Look for Chicago's first back-to-back winning seasons since Ron Santo was at third.

In 1999 the Reds finished 96-67; last year, at 66-96, they were the low-rent team of the NL Central. Since Ken Griffey Jr. joined the Reds, the team has been 22 games under .500. With Cinergy Field torn up for construction of a new stadium, attendance was way down. The team responded with an MLB-worst 27-54 home record. If it wasn't terrible defense (third-worst in the majors), it was immature pitchers, injuries (to Aaron Boone, Griffey and Barry Larkin) or front-office bungling (see Deion Sanders or Justin Atchley). The off-season was barely better. Forced to unload Dmitri Young because the team couldn't afford to go through arbitration, the Reds got chronic underachiever Juan Encarnacion from the Tigers. Starting pitchers averaged only 51/3 innings last year (worst in the NL) and put a strain on the league's best pen. GM Jim Bowden rounded up bargain-basement pitching--Brian Bohanon, Jose Silva, Brandon Kolb, Jimmy Haynes--to keep fans interested until Great American Ball Park opens in 2003. By then he hopes to have lefty Ty Howington ready and Scott Williamson and Seth Etherton all the way back from shoulder surgeries. Cincinnati is loaded with prospects in the outfield. Adam Dunn hit 19 homers in 244 at bats in the bigs last year and could hit 35 homers and drive in 100 this year. Austin Kearns (who hit .371 in the Arizona Fall League), Ruben Mateo and 20-year-old Wily Mo Pena may be just as good. There's even more hitting at AA. If Bowden figures out a way to keep Danny Graves and Aaron Boone while the hitting matures, the Reds can elbow their way into the Central race next year.

Bad luck is often the residue of bad design. Pittsburgh general manager Cam Bonifay planned to rely on the surgically repaired arms of Francisco Cordova and Jason Schmidt when the Pirates inaugurated PNC Park last season. But neither Schmidt nor Cordova made it out of Bradenton. Ace-in-waiting Kris Benson tore up his elbow. The Bucs lost three starting pitchers in spring training and a fourth in the second game of the year. Eleven starting pitchers failed to do the job. It was a bad, unlucky year, and Bonifay lost his job in June. With the second-worst ERA in the NL, Pitt pitching was pathetic. And the hitting was a joke. The Pirates essentially fielded a three-man offense: Brian Giles (.309, 37 HRs), future All-Star Aramis Ramirez (.300, 34 HRs) and Jason Kendall (.266, 10 HRs). After losing 100 games in their ninth straight losing season, the Pirates decided to raise ticket prices this season. That will help pay for bloated contracts with Kevin Young, Pat Meares and Derek Bell, but it won't win new fans. Elbow rehab will keep Benson out until June. New general manager Dave Littlefield may entertain offers for Giles and Kendall. He made a great trade in December when he sent Todd Ritchie (11-15, 4.47) to the White Sox for pitchers Kip Wells, Sean Lowe and Josh Fogg. Armando Rios, Craig Wilson and free agent signee Pokey Reese should improve the offense. With good luck, the Bucs could win 75 this year.

The Milwaukee Brewers were the senior circuit's worst team following the All-Star break. They finished the season 68-94 for their ninth straight losing year--and their worst record since the days of Jim Gantner and Moose Haas. There was plenty of blame to go around. The Beertown Whiffmeisters set a major league record for strikeouts (1399). They were the first team in history to amass more strikeouts than hits. It's OK today to swing at a 3-0 pitch, or to hurt yourself swinging too hard at a two-strike curveball. But Milwaukee's feast-or-famine approach did not serve them well. They were third in the league in homers but 11th in runs scored--and the team's .319 on-base percentage was the NL's second worst. One of the free swingers, Richie Sexson, blossomed into a big-time power hitter with 45 homers (he hit .293 in the second half). Geoff Jenkins slugged 20 HRs and had 63 RBI in 105 games. In trading away Jeromy Burnitz to the Mets, the team lost a player who had hit 163 homers and had driven in 511 runs over the past five years. But the Brewers say the trade enabled them to sign free agent second baseman Eric Young and pick up Alex Ochoa. Milwaukee had the league's sixth-worst ERA, but the starting pitching is intriguing, especially with new pitching coach Dave Stewart. Ben Sheets (10-5, 3.59 in his first 16 starts), Ruben Quevedo, Nick Neugebauer (who is coming off shoulder surgery) and Glendon Rusch (who pitched better than his record shows for the Mets) offer hope for the future. In the meantime the Brewers might be better off with manager Davey Lopes and coaches Dave Stewart, Gary Matthews and Dave Collins playing on the field. The highlight for Milwaukeeans this summer will be the Ail-Star game.

National League West

The Giants won 90 games and finished two games off the pace. But the season belonged to Barry Bonds, who may have had the best offensive season ever. In addition to hitting 73 homers, he set other records, with 177 walks (surpassing Babe Ruth's 1923 mark) and an .863 slugging percentage (breaking Ruth's 1920 standard). Bonds reached base 343 times and twice homered in six consecutive games. His .515 on-base percentage was the best in the National League in the modern era. He slugged an unbelievable .910 against right-handers. And he did it during a pennant race. When Larry Dierker told his Astros pitchers to stay away from Bonds in October, Barry refused to swing at bad pitches. Most amazing of all, he hit 37 homers in Pac Bell Park, the toughest park in the majors for a left-hander to homer in. In January, general manager Brian Sabean re-signed Bonds--who may be the best leftfielder of all time--to a five-year contract. San Francisco had two problem areas last year: right field (where Eric Davis and Shawon Dunston were too old) and third base (where Russ Davis and Pedro Feliz couldn't cut it). So Sabean traded Shawn Estes to the Mets for Tsuyoshi Shinjo and Desi Relaford, then swapped Relaford to the Mariners for third baseman David Bell. He signed Reggie Sanders (coming off a career-high 33 homers in Arizona) to play right. Shortstop Rich Aurilia had a magnificent season, hitting .324 with 37 homers, 97 ribbies and a league-high 206 hits. Aurilia and Jeff Kent are a muscular keystone combo. Livan Hernandez was supposed to be top dog on the staff, but he went 13-15. And Russ Ortiz (17-9, 3.29) had a career year. Kirk Rueter (14-12), Jason Schmidt (7-1, 3.39 in SF) and either Jay Witasick or Kurt Ainsworth fill a deep rotation. Closer Robb Nen struggled in May and June but still converted 45 of 52 save opportunities. Felix Rodriguez (9-1, 1.68, 32 holds) is the best setup man in the game. Unlike other teams, the Giants have to pay millions each year for their mortgage on privately funded Pac Bell Park, which obviously cuts into money available for free agents. But this season the division could belong to San Francisco.

The Diamondbacks' go-for-broke strategy paid off last year. In just their fourth season, Arizona won the World Series in an epic seven-game matchup against the Yankees. Twin aces Curt Schilling (22-6, 2.98) and Cy Young winner Randy Johnson (21-6, 2.49, 372 strikeouts) were first and second in the National League in innings pitched. The pair put together a 9-1 record in the postseason, with an ERA of 1.31 in 892/3 innings. Arizona had the NL's best defense and a strong bench (led by David Dellucci and Erubiel Durazo) that tied a major league record with 14 pinch-hit home runs. Bob Brenly won't win the Cap Anson award for smartest manager in baseball. Byung-Hyun Kim, the kid reliever who threw 98 innings during the 2001 regular season, had a 61-pitch outing in the World Series. And Brenly hauled him back out to pitch the next night. (Kim blew both games.) But Brenly knows how to motivate the old dudes. Luis Gonzalez, 34, had a career year, hitting .325 with 57 homers and 142 RBI. Mark Grace (38), Steve Finley (37) and Matt Williams (36) also had better-than-expected seasons. But Arizona will have a tough time repeating. Reggie Sanders went to Frisco, opening right field for Series hero Danny Bautista. General manager Joe Garagiola Jr. signed Rick Helling in the off-season to be his third starter, but Helling allowed an AL-high 256 hits, 124 earned runs and 38 homers with Texas last year. The franchise is overextended and the future doesn't look hot. Attendance fell for the third straight year. Arizona has plenty of old players and a weak farm system that doesn't offer much. Then there is the $120 million in deferred salaries that have to be paid in the next few years. Maybe Jerry Colangelo succeeded in establishing baseball in the desert, but the day will come when he'll have to reckon up. The D-backs finished only two games ahead of the Giants last year, and the Giants have improved since then. But you can't count out any team that has both Johnson and Schilling.

Strange to say, but the Dodgers over-achieved in 2001. With Kevin Brown (19 starts), Andy Ashby (two starts) and Darren Dreifort (16 starts) ailing for much of the year, the team with the major league's third-highest payroll struggled to finish at 86-76, six games behind Arizona. The team showed moxie in doing so, but changes had to be made. In January the Dodgers traded Gary Sheffield to the Braves for Brian Jordan and pitcher Odalis Perez. In 526 games with Los Angeles, Sheffield hit .312 and drove in 367 runs. When he's healthy, 35-year-old Jordan is a gamer, but he won't hit like Sheffield. With eight starting pitchers this season--Ashby and Brown (both coming off elbow surgery), 28-year-old left-hander Kazuhisa Ishii ("the Japanese Randy Johnson"), Omar Daal, Eric Gagne, Perez, Hideo Nomo and Terry Mulholland--GM Dan Evans probably has a few deals up his sleeve. Since the team didn't pick up Jeff Shaw's option, the Dodgers need a closer. Matt Herges may be a stopgap. And with the second-worst pen in the National League, LA could use a few more guys in middle and long relief. (Paul Quantrill, who was acquired from Toronto for Luke Prokopec, will help.) Beyond a few big bats, there isn't a lot of slugging. Last year's surprise was Paul Lo Duca, a 30-year-old catcher-infielder who posted a .320 average with 25 homers. Shawn Green hit 49 home runs and drove in 125. Third baseman Adrian Beltre ought to bounce back from a year in which he had two abdominal surgeries. Jim Tracy is a very good manager. But he'll have to pull a rabbit out of his hat to get the Dodgers to the postseason.

General manager Kevin Towers has done a smooth job in rebuilding the Padres, stockpiling pitchers in the fashion of the Oakland A's. Towers picked up Brett Tomko from Seattle to go along with Kevin Jarvis, Brian Lawrence and Brian Tollberg. The Friars lost promising pitchers Adam Eaton and Kevin Walker for at least half the year with injuries, but there are still plenty of suitable candidates. Dennis Tankersley, Jake Peavy, Jason Middlebrook, Ben Howard and Mark Phillips could be heard from this year. The pen is also on the upswing. Trevor Hoffman remains one of the top closers in the game. Jeremy Fikac (1.37 in 23 appearances) held hitters to a .165 batting average. The Pads don't get a lot of hits or home runs, but they led the majors in walks. The defense was again the worst in the majors, but will be improved by the move of Phil Nevin (.306, 41 homers, 126 RBI) from third to first. Rookie of the Year candidate Sean Burroughs takes over at third and Ryan Klesko will move to right. Mark Kotsay is in center and Ray Lankford and Bubba Trammell will platoon in left. Ramon Vazquez--who was MVP of the Puerto Rican Winter League--should get the nod at shortstop. D'Angelo Jimenez (.276) moves from short to second, which relegates Damian Jackson to the bench. Wiki Gonzalez replaces Ben Davis behind the plate. After 16 lawsuits and a 16-month delay, the new stadium is on target to open in 2004. The Padres will be a contender by then, if not sooner.

Owner Jerry McMorris got it right when he said the Rockies "bet the farm last year and it didn't work out." After coughing up $172 million for starters Denny Neagle and Mike Hampton, McMorris expected Colorado to make it to the postseason. But he didn't get much bang for his buck, and the Rockies wound up with their second last-place finish in three years. Neagle (9-8, 5.38) was a bust and Hampton had a better year at the plate (7 HRs, .291, .582 slugging) than on the mound. Despite a strong start, he finished 14-13 (in his last 19 starts, he was 5-11, 7.37). As usual, Dealin' Dan O'Dowd was busy over the winter, but unlike in years past, he looked more to pare payroll than to improve the team. Saddled with $363 million in salary commitments to four players (Neagle, Hampton, Todd Helton and Larry Walker), the Rockies are downsizing for the first time in their 10-year history. They face an uphill climb, but all is not lost. Hampton can turn in a better season, and young hurlers Shawn Chacon, Jason Jennings and John Thomson looked good late last year. If they can avoid the Coors trauma unit, the Rox could have something to build on. As always, there's an abundance of offense, led by Walker (.350, 38 homers), who won his third batting title in four years, and Helton, who has 91 homers and 293 RBI the past two seasons. Juan Pierre tied with the Phillies' Jimmy Rollins for the league lead in stolen bases and defied the dreaded Coors effect, hitting nearly as well on the road as at altitude. Rookie shortstop Juan Uribe hit .300 in 72 games. Along with second baseman Jose Ortiz, he gives Colorado a strong keystone. Coors question: Will the mile-high stats keep Walker and Helton from Cooperstown?

Playboy's Picks

American League

East Central West

Yankees White Sox Mariners

Red Sox Indians Athletics

Blue Jays Twins Angels

Devil Rays Tigers Rangers

Orioles Royals

National League

East Central West

Braves Cardinals Giants

Mets Astros Diamondbacks

Phillies Cubs Dodgers

Marlins Reds Padres

Expos Pirates Rockies

Brewers

Al Wild Card: Athletics

Nl Wild Card: Astros

Al Champs: Yankees

Nl Champs: Cardinals

World Champs: Yankees

Inside Baseball

Most infield hits in 2001: Ichiro Suzuki (63), Juan Pierre (51), Luis Castillo (44), Jason Tyner (36), Roberto Alomar (34), Roger Cedeno (34).

Most RBI with the fewest HRs: Rey Sanchez (37, 0), Juan Pierre (55, 2), Omar Vizquel (50, 2), Luis Castillo (45, 2), Rey Ordonez (44, 3).

Fewest RBI with the most HRs: Barry Bonds (137, 73), Jose Valentin (68, 28), Luis Gonzalez (142, 57), Sammy Sosa (160, 64).

Fouled off the most pitches: Todd Helton (509), Shannon Stewart (499), Aramis Ramirez (488), Manny Ramirez (484), Tony Batista (484).

Best two-strike batters: Juan Pierre (.325), Matt Lawton (.294), Mark Grace (.294), Todd Helton (.273), Bret Boone (.271), Jason Giambi (.271).

Best hitters with two outs and runners in scoring position: Ichiro Suzuki (.468), Rondell White (.444), Frank Catalanotto (.396), Moises Alou (.388), Jason Tyner (.385).

Best 0-2 hitters: Mark Kotsay (.357), David Eckstein (.351), Brent Mayne (.348), Mike Lowell (.343), Tony Womack (.342).

Most walks with bases loaded: Tony Batista (4). Most walks, batting number one in lineup: Rickey Henderson (76).

(Data provided by Stats, Inc.)

A Talk with Bill James

Someday, Bill James will be in the Hall of Fame. By putting stats into a meaningful context, he has had a profound influence on how baseball is viewed and played. He combines clear, no-nonsense writing (and dry wit) with an astute sense of history. In the past few months, James has published two books. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (Free Press) is the long-awaited revision of his 1985 classic. Win Shares (Stats, Inc.) is an ambitious work that attempts to define a player's value to a team. It will change how we compare performances in different eras. Both books are essential for any fan. James answered a few questions for us.

Who do you think is the most underrated guy in each league?

Craig Biggio of Houston has outplayed and out-produced Ken Griffey Jr. almost every season of his career. Griffey hits more home runs than Biggio and drives in more runs--and Biggio does everything else better. In the American League I'd say Miguel Tejada. In ordinary times he'd be the All-Star short-stop, but the league has three superstar shortstops, so nobody notices him.

What two rule changes would you make?

One: Eliminate 99 percent of the pitching changes in the middle of the inning. Strategy, my ass. Strategy is when you have to make hard choices, not when you get to change your mind with every batter. Let the game move. I'd have a rule that when a pitcher takes the mound, he stays in the game until he is charged with a run. Some people favor a rule that he has to face at least three batters. That doesn't really matter. What matters is getting rid of repetitious stop-action pitching changes that have half the entertainment value of a dentist appointment. Two: Stop calling time out after the batter gets in the box. Same reason. Watching a hitter step out of the box repeatedly is just not preferred entertainment.

Can baseball survive--let alone flourish--without increased revenue sharing?

Revenue sharing, in that it relies on the generosity of the rich, won't work. What baseball has to have, eventually, is revenue restructuring. Suppose you were in a fantasy league where you got $20 to buy players, but some other guys got $50, $70, $100. Would you agree to play in a league like that? Of course you wouldn't, unless Jenny McCarthy were in the league or something. Would you think you were smart enough that you could win the league anyway? Of course not. If you were smart enough to win with half the money somebody else was spending, you'd be smart enough to find a league with fair rules. The economic structure of baseball, if not corrected, will ultimately cripple the existing leagues, causing them to be pushed aside by new leagues. But in no way do I blame George Steinbrenner or Ted Turner for this situation. Turner and Steinbrenner are doing what you or I would do in their Guccis. It's the small-market owners, in Kansas City and Oakland and Pittsburgh and Cleveland, who ultimately have to stand up, dump Bud Selig in the East River and tell the rich teams to renegotiate or find somebody else to play ball with.

Which stats are best ignored and which should be given more emphasis?

Well, batting averages still fool a lot of people. You know which team had the highest batting average in baseball last year? Colorado, and they lost 89 games. You can hit .320 and be a lousy player; you can hit .240 and be a very good player. Better things to focus on are on-base percentage and slugging percentage. And the reason that's true is no team can win consistently by just hitting singles. A lot of runs--more than half--result from walks, and from power. On-base percentage and slugging percentage focus on walks and power. Another overrated stat is saves. Announcers love to tell you that, in modern baseball, you can't win a pennant without a quality closer. Only every year, somebody does.

Will baseball ever work in Montreal?

It could. Only in sports do we blame the consumers if the product stinks. The lesson of Olympic Stadium isn't "baseball won't work in Montreal." It's "never let a French architect design a base-ball park."

Does the game of baseball have a demographic problem?

Properly staged, baseball is fun to play and fun to watch. An awful lot of young people don't know this, because the game has been badly staged for a long time. Baseball will survive in other places--Japan, Cuba, Latin America--even if the American and National leagues do an Enron on us. And, because it would survive in other places, it would eventually come back in America.

Who's your favorite owner?

Gussie Busch, I guess. A cranky, eccentric old bastard who balanced his love of the game against a strong distaste for wasting money. Now they're all corporations. The best owners love baseball. Corporations love money.

Bill James' All-Defense Team

Mike Mussina P

Handles everything well except people.

Pudge Rodriguez C

Duh.

Todd Helton 1B

He's no Keith Hernandez, but nobody is.

Fernando Vina 2B

Quicker pivot and more hustle than Alomar.

Scott Rolen 3B

Sometimes he's good, sometimes he's sensational.

Orlando Cabrera SS

He's better than Omar Vizquel was 10 years ago.

Andruw Jones OF

The best defensive outfielder who ever lived.

Torii Hunter OF

The man most responsible for the Twins' good 2001 season.

Mike Cameron OF

The Mariners have two great outfielders--Cameron and Ichiro.

Statistical assistance provided by Stats, Inc.