Playboy's Pro Football Forecast

parity and free agency could turn the pursuit of super bowl XXXVI into a roller-coaster ride

The eyes of Texas will be on Emmitt Smith this National Football League season. But the eyes of the NFL will be on all of Texas. Smith will be the feature attraction in 2002 as he stalks Walter Payton's NFL all-time rushing record. The greatest runner in the history of the Dallas Cowboys needs 540 yards to topple one of the game's most prestigious marks--a mark that has changed hands just once in the past 36 years. Jim Brown retired in 1965 with a record 12,312 yards, and Payton finally caught him in 1984. So go ahead and chisel Emmitt's mug into the NFL's Mount Rushmore alongside those of Brown and Payton. Smith's guest will captivate football fans for the first few weeks of the season. But the Houston Texans will captivate fans for the entire fall, as expansion teams generally do. The NFL returns to Houston for the first time since 1996, when the Oilers packed up their helmets and cowboy hats and headed for Tennessee. All Bud Adams wanted was a new stadium when he moved one of the American Football League's charter franchises to Nashville. A jilted town gave Texans owner Bob McNair just that in his pursuit of an expansion team. Houston outlasted Los Angeles in the bid for the 32nd NFL franchise because it gave McNair a commitment for a $400 million football palace with a retractable roof. Los Angeles couldn't, wouldn't and, in the end, didn't commit to a new stadium.

So the city that gave pro football the Astrodome, Luv Ya Blue and Billy "White Shoes" Johnson once again has a team to call its own. The arrival of the Texans also allows the NFL to restore some sanity to its divisional alignment. With 32 teams, the NFL decided to expand to eight divisions of four teams apiece. Some teams will leave comfortable lodgings for new divisional homes, giving the NFL the liberty to relocate teams geographically. So Atlanta and Carolina no longer compete in the West, Arizona is out of the East and Jacksonville is no longer considered Central. A Sunbelt division has been established with Atlanta, Carolina, New Orleans and Tampa Bay now forming the NFC South. A true NFC West has finally materialized with Arizona and Seattle joining San Francisco and St. Louis. "It's long overdue," says 49ers coach and frequent flier Steve Mariucci, whose team made annual road trips of 2500 miles to play some division rivals in the old NFC West. "At least we stay on our side of the country more often now." The Texans will be housed in the AFC South along with Jacksonville, Tennessee and Indianapolis. Indianapolis, south? Well, no realignment plan is perfect.

Smith may be close to perfection as a player, though. He is the first back in NFL history to rush for 1000 yards in 11 consecutive seasons, and he also ranks second on the league's all-time touchdown list with 159. He has amassed 16,187 yards, four NFL rushing titles and three Super Bowl rings in his career.

"In my mind, Walter Payton is the greatest football player ever," Tennessee Titans general manager Floyd Reese says. "I never saw him touch a football that he didn't try to kill you. Whether it was running, blocking, jogging on the field or jogging off, I was simply amazed he could do all that and stay healthy. That's Emmitt, too. If there's anybody who deserves to break the record it's Emmitt, simply because he's been there every week. Good years, bad years, Super Bowl seasons, four-win seasons: That's the true mark of a warrior."

Smith has averaged 87.5 yards per game in his career. If he maintains that (continued on page 130)Football(continued from page 106) average in 2002, Smith will become the NFL's all-time leading rusher in the seventh game of the season at Arizona against the Cardinals on October 20.

NFC East

Dan Snyder is all about splash. He spent a record $800 million to buy the Washington Redskins in 1999. He signed future Hall of Famers Deion Sanders and Bruce Smith as free agents in 2000, then lured Marty Schottenheimer, one of the NFL's all-time winningest coaches, out of the ESPN studio to coach his team in 2001. The bigger the splash, the bigger the rush for Snyder. He loves diving into the deep end. So when Steve Spurrier resigned as head coach at the University of Florida in January, Snyder couldn't help himself. Less than two weeks after Spurrier left his alma mater, Snyder fired Schottenheimer. The next day, Snyder made Spurrier the NFL's highest-paid coach with a five-year, $25 million contract. Snyder wants to win. That's understandable. When you spend $800 million on a business, you want it to succeed. Spurrier has won. In 12 years at Florida he posted a 122-27-1 record, winning six SEC titles and a national championship. Snyder also wants to have fun. In the NFL, that means offensive football--big plays, big yards, big scores. Spurrier has fun. Never shy about running it up, Spurrier created the fun-and-gun offense that regularly hung half a hundred on overmatched foes--and some that weren't so overmatched. In his final game as coach of the Gators, Spurrier generated 56 points against top 10 foe Maryland in the Orange Bowl. Florida averaged 44 points per game in a 10--2 season. The Redskins, on the other hand, ranked 28th in the NFL in yards and points last season (and 30th in passing). This was a boring offensive football team, which is why Spurrier was summoned to perform CPR. Snyder wants, in no particular order, excitement, points and victories at FedEx Field.

But there are already skeptics. Spurrier is a warm-weather coach with a warm-weather offense. Washington, D.C. is a cold-weather town. So Spurrier won't be able to fling the ball to all corners of the field when winter creeps in after Thanks-giving. In college, his Gators might have seen an All-America cornerback once a month. In the NFL, he'll see two each week. In college, he had seasons when he played nine of 12 games in the state of Florida. He'll have to bring a suitcase to Washington.

"I can't respond to all the critics who are looking for reasons why we won't be successful," Spurrier says. "We've just got to go play and see what happens. It doesn't matter what I say until we play a game. People can write whatever they want. It's all fair. Until we go play, who knows what's going to happen?"

The largest obstacle looming for Spurrier this season is the Philadelphia Eagles, who ran away with the division last year and came within 30 minutes of reaching the Super Bowl. The Eagles have the best quarterback in the East in Donovan McNabb, but they lost their top defensive player when Pro Bowl middle linebacker Jeremiah Trotter bolted for Spurrier's Redskins in free agency. But with Hugh Douglas and Corey Simon, the Eagles can still rush the passer with the best. With Bobby Taylor and Troy Vincent, the Eagles can still cover with the best.

The Dallas Cowboys may be ready to reclaim their contender status after back-to-back 5--11 seasons. Free-agent signees La'Roi Glover, Kevin Hardy and Bryant Westbrook and first-round draft pick Roy Williams fortify a top five defense. Emmitt Smith is closing in on the NFL rushing record, but he's 33 and the offense is moving in the direction of quarterback Quincy Carter's playmaking skills.

Jim Fassel has coveted a pass-catching tight end since he hired on as New York Giants head coach in 1997. He finally acquired one in first-round draft pick Jeremy Shockey. But can the Giants protect Kerry Collins long enough for him to find Shockey, Ike Hilliard, Amani Too-mer or any other receiver? Three starters on the offensive line are gone, including Pro Bowl guard Ron Stone and past Pro Bowl tackle Lomas Brown. Pro Bowl linebacker Jessie Armstead also became a salary-cap casualty. Like Trotter, he signed with Spurrier's Redskins.

NFC North

The best team in the new NFC North is open for debate: Chicago or Green Bay. But there is no debate about the best player in the division. That's wide receiver Randy Moss, when he chooses to be. The Minnesota Vikings gave Moss an eight-year, $75 million contract a year ago and the return on their investment was his worst season in four as a pro. He did catch a career-high 82 passes, but he posted career lows in yardage (1233), average (15) and touchdowns (10). The NFL's premiere game-breaker broke open few games and the Vikings slumped to 5--11, a collapse that cost coach Dennis Green his job. Moss groused all season and finally admitted in November that he only plays when he wants to play--and his wasn't an all-the-time commitment. New coach Mike Tice sought out the source of his star player's disenchantment in the off-season, asking receivers coach Charlie Baggett to research Moss' workload. The Vikings threw Moss 40 percent of the passes in only five games, but won four of them. The lone loss was a 21--16 December cliff-hanger at Pittsburgh against the eventual AFC Central champions. Moss caught eight passes for 144 yards and a touchdown that day against one of the NFL's best defenses. Tice reached an obvious conclusion based on Baggett's research. "When we throw the ball in Randy's direction, we win football games," Tice says. "His whole deal is frustration. He feels like he can control the flow of the game, and that study proved it to me. I think everyone here is looking for Randy to be more content. He wants to make an impact. We're paying him a lot of money, and we understand he can control the flow of the game. Randy seems content to know that he's going to be the focal point of our offense."

But Moss doesn't play defense--and that's Minnesota's problem. The Vikings have ranked 27th or worse in defense for the past three years. Minnesota lost its best linebacker (Kailee Wong), cornerback (Dale Carter) and safety (Robert Griffith) to free agency. If the Vikings can't slow down opposing offenses in 2002, it won't matter how many receptions, yards and touchdowns Moss can accumulate. This team isn't going anywhere.

With Brett Favre turning 33 this season, the Green Bay Packers' chances for a championship are diminishing. So the Pack approached the off-season with a greater sense of urgency, making moves aimed at producing immediate dividends. Green Bay signed Pro Bowl defensive end Joe Johnson to improve a passive pass rush and traded for speedy wide receiver Terry Glenn to give Favre a deep threat. Halfback Ahman Green and tight end Bubba Franks provide Favre offensive options.

The Chicago Bears had a magical season in 2001 with a journeyman quarterback (Jim Miller), winning 13 games and their first division title in 11 years. Youngsters Brian Urlacher at middle linebacker, Anthony Thomas at running back and Marty Booker at wide receiver emerged as elite players. But duplicating that success in 2002 will be difficult, because the Bears have 16 road games. While Soldier Field is being renovated, Chicago will play its home schedule two hours down the road at the University of Illinois.

Hall of Fame quarterback Bobby Layne provided the spit and fire for a Detroit franchise that won three NFL titles in the Fifties. He went to his last Pro Bowl in 1957. In the 45 years since then, only one quarterback from the Detroit Lions has been invited to a Pro Bowl--Greg Landry in 1972. Any wonder the Lions haven't won an NFL title since the Layne era? The lions took Oregon quarterback Joey Harrington with the third overall pick of the 2002 draft. Let the rebuilding begin.

NFC South

The NFL off-season buzz focused on the dismantling of the once-mighty Baltimore Ravens. The salary cap forced the Ravens to cut nine starters in March. Another starter (linebacker Jamie Sharper) left for Houston in the expansion draft and yet another departed in free agency (cornerback Duane Starks). Now only eight starters remain from the team that captured a Super Bowl just 19 games ago.

But the salary cap is not a problem unique to the Ravens. The New Orleans Saints were also one of the best teams in the NFL in 2000, winning the NFC West and advancing to the final eight in the playoffs. But 10 starters have since left that team, including veteran Pro Bowlers Willie Roaf, La'Roi Glover, Joe Johnson and Keith Mitchell. All departed last off-season, along with leading rusher Ricky Williams, who was traded to Miami.

"You can count on eight to 10 changes on your football team every year because either you don't or can't re-sign them," Atlanta Falcons coach Dan Reeves says. "It's difficult to keep even your top players because you have to pay them so much money, particularly if you have success. Baltimore won a Super Bowl. We went to a Super Bowl. There is no way you can keep them all. So you lose them. It's automatic. There's a big turnover every year."

The Saints were ready to embrace change after their collapse down the stretch in 2001. New Orleans lost its final four games, including three at home, to end up with a 7--9 record. Coach Jim Haslett attempted to deal from the same deck in 2001, but the cards weren't there. The Saints couldn't stop the run last season, so they let pass rushers Glover and Johnson go and brought in wide-bodies Grady Jackson in free agency and Charles Grant in the draft. The Saints also needed bigger plays on offense, so they traded Williams to create a lineup opening for Deuce McAllister and drafted wide receiver Donte Stallworth in the first round. Both can stretch the field. Stallworth walks in as one of the fastest players in the NFL, with a 4.29-second speed in the 40-yard dash.

With Aaron Brooks taking the snaps in New Orleans, the Saints have the most stable quarterbacking in the division. That should mark them as the favorites in the new NFC South. But keep an eye on the Atlanta Falcons, who are quarterbacked by Brooks' cousin Michael Vick. Vick was the first overall pick of the 2001 NFL draft, but the Falcons forgot to play him, allowing aging Chris Chandler to pass Atlanta to a nonplayoff finish. Vick threw only 113 passes and sat out half the games. It was a wasted season, but 2002 won't be. The Falcons cut Chandler and have turned the offense over to the arms and legs of Vick. He still rushed for almost 300 yards in limited action last season. He can hand off the ball to newcomers Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett, but he lacks an elite receiver.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are selling the coaching genius of Jon Gruden this season. They have little else to sell. The Buccaneers took hits in free agency, losing Dunn, deep threat Jacquez Green and middle linebacker Jamie Duncan. And they didn't have any premium picks in the draft because they traded their first- and second-round picks to Oakland for the right to hire Gruden away from the Raiders.

The George Seifert experiment didn't work, so the Carolina Panthers have moved to John Fox as head coach. He was the coordinator of a defense that carried the New York Giants to the NFC championship in 2000. Fox is hoping number one pick Julius Peppers can become to his Panthers what Michael Strahan was to his Giants. With his rookie season behind him, Chris Weinke ought to be much improved at quarterback. Number two draft pick DeShaun Foster gives the Panthers a chance to run the ball.

NFC West

The San Francisco 49ers were the NFL's team of the decade for the Eighties, with four Super Bowl championships. The 49ers may have been a better team in the Nineties, when they won an NFL-record 113 games. But, with only a single Lombardi Trophy, they were not a better championship team in the Nineties.

In the Eighties the 49ers were the hunted. Since then they have become the hunters. The 49ers might have won three consecutive Super Bowls in the early Nineties had the Dallas Cowboys not been standing in their way in the NFC. Later in the decade, the Green Bay Packers were in the way with three consecutive playoff victories (1995--1997) over the 49ers. And now it's the St. Louis Rams.

The 49ers won 12 games in 2001, and still finished two games behind the Rams in the NFC West. St. Louis now has won the NFC tide in two of the past three seasons, winning the Super Bowl in 1999 and losing it in 2001. But that 20--17 setback at the hands of the New England Patriots last February doesn't make the Rams appear any less vulnerable to the 49ers.

"I think everyone still feels the Rams are the team to beat," 49ers coach Steve Mariucci says. "The league is hoping and waiting for the Rams to fall apart a little bit and go through some salary cap woes like we did, Dallas did, Jacksonville, Baltimore--where a good team loses good players because they can't afford to keep them all. But they've been able to keep a good team together for several years in a row, which is a little unusual in the salary cap age." But the process has begun. The Rams lost their leading tackler (middle linebacker London Fletcher) and starting offensive tackle (Rod Jones) last off-season to free agency. Deep snapper Jeff Robinson and punt returner Az Hakim also signed for more money elsewhere. The 49ers, on the other hand, have strengthened a 12--4 team. They have become deeper at cornerback with the selection of Mike Rumph with their number one pick. They're stronger on the offensive line with the free-agent signing of Pro Bowl guard Ron Stone. San Francisco was one of the youngest teams in the NFL last year and the 49ers return 20 starters. "You have to build your team to win your division," Mariucci says. "Maybe the best team in football is in our division. If we can beat the Rams, we should be in pretty good shape."

The problem for the 49ers--and for everyone else in the NFC, for that matter--is the playmaking ability of Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt of the St. Louis Rams. Warner and Faulk have combined to win the past three NFL MVP awards, and both Bruce and Holt have led the league in receiving yards. St. Louis also became the first team in NFL history to score 500 points in three consecutive seasons. If this offensive cast can stay healthy, the Rams are indeed the team to beat in 2002.

The Seattle Seahawks move into a new conference and stadium this season. But the Seahawks bring defensive deficiencies from their AFC days--and this is not the division to be in with defensive flaws. The Rams and 49ers both have Pro Bowl quarterbacks and top five offenses itching for a shot at Seattle's 23rd-ranked pass defense. But the Seahawks have the right quarterback (Trent Dilfer) and running back (Shaun Alexander) to exercise ball control and protect that defense.

The Arizona Cardinals didn't have much success over the years in the NFC East, qualifying for the playoffs just once in the last 19 years. So a move to any other division figures to benefit them. The Cardinals spent the off-season building up their defense for the NFC West, signing free-agent cornerback Duane Starks away from the Baltimore Ravens and drafting tackle Wendell Bryant with a first-round pick.

AFC East

No team has changed its profile this off-season as dramatically as the Buffalo Bills. Adding a quarterback who has taken snaps in Pro Bowls and Super Bowls will do that in this era of quick turnarounds. The St. Louis Rams went from worst to first in 1999, and the New England Patriots did it in 2001. New quarterbacks triggered both championship runs. With the arrival of Drew Bledsoe, the dream is alive in Buffalo for a worst-to-first transformation in 2002.

"That is part of our message--why can't it be us this year?" Bills coach Gregg Williams says. "But there's more than just that slogan. You have to prove it on the field. We still have a long way to go, but we're looking forward to getting onto the field and proving it."

The Bills were 3--13 last season, but they were one of the youngest teams in the NFL. Thirty-one of their 53 players had been in the league two years or less. Williams played that youth--at times he used eight rookie starters--and the young players improved as the season progressed. The highlight was a December road upset of the playoff-bound New York Jets.

Now Buffalo has had a second solid draft under general manager Tom Donahoe, patching holes along the offensive (tackle Mike Williams) and defensive (end Ryan Denney) lines and adding one of the draft's top playmakers, all-American wide receiver Josh Reed. Bledsoe also inherits a couple of Pro Bowl weapons in fullback Larry Centers and wide receiver Eric Moulds. But the arrival of Bledsoe has been the thrust of the optimism. He has had two 4000-yard passing seasons in his nine-year career. He also has been to three Pro Bowls and directed the Pats to the 1997 Super Bowl.

Bledsoe lost his starting job in 2001 when he was hurt in the second game of the season. When he returned almost two months later, Tom Brady was having a Pro Bowl year at the position. Bledsoe did play in the AFC title game when Brady was injured and threw a TD pass in a 24--17 victory over Pittsburgh. At 30, there are still plenty of passes left in his arm. "Drew has lit a fire that was lacking from a 3--13 season," Williams says. "Everyone's step has pepped up around here. The fact that Drew can play at a high level helps our confidence."

The Super Bowl champion New England Patriots were a triumph of coaching. The big-money players under the New England salary cap--Bledsoe, Terry Glenn, Willie McGinest and Ted Johnson--became bit players on the 2001 Patriots. Coach Bill Belichick had a plan and the Tom Bradys, Troy Browns, Antowain Smiths and Bobby Hamiltons executed it. No one saw the Patriots coming in 2001. They will in 2002.

If only Dan Marino had had a running back all those seasons in Florida. Marino was the best passer in football, but the Miami Dolphins couldn't run the ball. Miami had only one 1000-yard rusher during Marino's 17-year career (Karim Abdul-Jabbar in 1996). The Dolphins finally addressed that problem last off-season, trading for Heisman winner Ricky Williams. It's too late for Marino, but not for Jay Fiedler.

The New York Jets were surprise playoff qualifiers in 2001 under first-year coach Herman Edwards. But seven starters departed in the off-season, including both starting cornerbacks. The Jets still have Curtis Martin, who rushed for an NFL runner-up 1513 yards. But quarterback Vinny Testaverde is a year older at 38. Chad Pennington waits in the wings, but he shows signs of rust as he enters his third season without any significant playing time.

AFC North

Carmen Policy and Dwight Clark didn't study the history of the Cleveland Browns when they assumed control of the expansion franchise in 1999. Whether it was Paul Brown or Blanton Collier or Marty Schottenheimer coaching the Browns, the formula for success remained constant through the decades: Run to win. But Policy and Clark tried to re-create San Francisco on Lake Erie with aerial football. They hired a pass-oriented head coach (Chris Palmer) and drafted a quarterback (Tim Couch) with the first pick in the new Browns' history. They also used premium choices on wide receivers Kevin Johnson, Dennis Northcutt and Quincy Morgan. Lost in the offensive focus was the team's ground game. Cleveland hasn't ranked higher than 30th in the NFL in rushing in its first three seasons--and the Browns managed to win only 12 of their first 48 games. To succeed in Cleveland, you must be able to run the ball when the ground freezes in November and December. It took new Browns coach Butch Davis just a year to figure that out. In his first season on the job in 2001, Davis presided over the NFL's worst rushing attack. The Browns averaged 3.2 yards per carry and less than 85 yards per game. Remembering what Emmitt Smith meant to Dallas when he was assistant coach during the Cowboys' Super Bowl era, Davis realized he needed his own Jim Brown or Emmitt Smith.

So the Browns used their number one pick last April on a running back, 1500-yard rusher William Green of Boston College. He slid to the Browns on the 16th pick because of a lack of speed. That's the same rap that pushed Smith down to the Cowboys at the 17th pick of the 1990 draft.

"You didn't see 75- or 80-yard runs with Emmitt," Davis says. "But what you saw was an awful lot of five- to 25-yard runs. Green had a ton of those move-the-chain runs, too. Like Emmitt, there were some long runs--and fast guys that run 4.3 and 4.4 didn't catch him. With his vision, his ability to slash and cut back--there are some definite comparisons with Emmitt."

The first running back taken in the previous three NFL drafts--Edgerrin James in 1999, Jamal Lewis in 2000 and LaDainian Tomlinson in 2001--rushed for more than 1200 yards as rookies. If Green can give the Browns 1200 yards in his first season, he could loom as the final piece to Cleveland's playoff puzzle. When the Browns have been able to run the ball in the past, they generally play into January.

The Pittsburgh Steelers can run the ball. They led the NFL in rushing last season. The Steelers also can play defense. They led the NFL there, too. But a couple of special-teams breakdowns in the AFC championship game--New England touchdowns on a punt return and a blocked punt--cost the Steelers a trip to the Super Bowl last season. Nineteen starters return from a Pittsburgh team that won 13 games. The Steelers brought in a new coach (Kevin Spencer), kicker (Todd Peterson) and returner (rookie Antwaan Randle El) to fix their special teams.

Among the 12 starters departing the Baltimore Ravens in the off-season were their leading passer (Elvis Grbac), rusher (Terry Allen), receiver (Qadry Ismail) and interceptor (Duane Starks)--along with Pro Bowlers Shannon Sharpe, Sam Adams, Rod Woodson and Jermaine Lewis. What the Ravens didn't lose was coach Brian Billick's sense of humor. "My seniors graduated," mused Billick of his ravaged roster, "and a bunch of my juniors came out early."

The Cincinnati Bengals have quietly built a competitive team under defensive-minded head coach Dick LeBeau. All 11 starters return from a top 10 defense, and 1300-yard rusher Corey Dillon gives the Bengals a hammer on offense. But the quarterback position remains the problem. Gus Frerotte could be Cincinnati's sixth different starter there in six seasons.

AFC South

Building a football team from scratch is new to Bob McNair, veteran horseman that he is. It's also new to Charley Casserly, whose only other stint as a NFL general manager was with one of the oldest, most storied franchises in league history (Washington). But building a team from scratch isn't new to Dom Capers, who works for McNair and Casserly as the first head coach of the Houston Texans. His one previous stint as an NFL head coach was with another startup franchise, the Carolina Panthers. So McNair supplies the money, Casserly the players and Capers the know-how for this franchise. Lessons learned at Carolina can now be put into place in Houston. The Panthers were a model for quick but short-lived success. Carolina built a veteran defense to carry the team as young offensive players learned how to win games. Inside of two seasons the Panthers were playing in the conference title game. But the old defense aged quickly and the young offensive playmakers never came around, so the Panthers flamed out as Super Bowl contenders. Capers was fired after four seasons. The experience taught him a valuable lesson--expansion teams should build for the future, not for the present. "We have a much younger team here, I can tell you that," Capers says. "We have a good mix now, especially on offense. We have some young players with a chance to ascend." The Texans assembled their offensive and defensive lines in the expansion draft and free agency, bringing in veteran NFL starters Tony Boselli, Ryan Young and Steve McKinney on offense and Jabari Issa, Seth Payne and Gary Walker on defense. In the expansion draft the Texans also claimed two cornerbacks who started on a 2001 playoff team (the New York Jets)--native Texans Marcus Coleman and Aaron Glenn. Houston stocked its skill positions in the college draft, selecting quarterback David Carr with the first overall pick, then adding running backs Jonathan Wells and Jarrod Baxter and wide receiver Jabar Gaffney. Which brings us to the most important lesson Capers brought with him from Carolina. "You have to be patient early on," Capers says. "You just don't slap together a team and go out and make the playoffs."

Patience will not be a strong suit of the Indianapolis Colts this season. The Colts have one of the most explosive offenses in football with playmakers Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison. The team generated 413 points last season, second in the NFL. But the Colts allowed a league-high 486 points on defense, which meant Indy didn't make the playoffs. So Colts general manager Bill Polian fired coach Jim Mora and replaced him with Tony Dungy, one of the game's best defensive minds. If the Colts can allow just a touchdown less per game, they'll be Super Bowl contenders.

A defensive collapse also doomed the Tennessee Titans last season. When they led the NFL in defense in 2000, the Titans won 13 games. When they tumbled to 25th in defense in 2001, they won six fewer games and fell out of the playoff ranks. The Titans spent the off-season trying to fix the NFL's worst pass defense, signing Pro Bowl safety Lance Schulters in free agency and drafting safety Tank Williams and cornerbacks Mike Echols and Tony Beckham.

All coach Tom Coughlin wants from his Jacksonville Jaguars is a healthy season. The Jaguars led the NFL in games missed by starters because of injury each of the past two years, which meant the Jaguars didn't make the playoffs both times. Last season Jacksonville lost 66 games by starters because of injury, which produced a 6--10 finish. Fred Taylor is one of the NFL's best runners but has lost more than a third of his career--24 of a possible 64 games--to injuries.

AFC West

The San Diego Chargers will not lose because of Marty Schottenheimer and likely will win because of Drew Brees.

Schottenheimer has been a head coach in the NFL for 16 years. In only one of those seasons did he lose more games than he won--1998, when his Kansas City Chiefs finished 7--9. He walked away from coaching after that season, taking a two-year hiatus. Schottenheimer returned in 2001 at Washington and, with Tony Banks as his quarterback, rallied from 0--5 to finish 8--8. It was his only season with the Redskins--Dan Snyder fired him because he didn't win enough. Eight victories with Tony Banks as quarterback will get you a contract extension in most NFL cities.

Though quarterbacking has never been a strength of Schottenheimer teams, he still has won 158 games in his coaching career, 10th-best in NFL history. He posted the best record in the AFC in 1995 with Steve Bono as his quarterback and did it again in 1997 with Elvis Grbac. He won a division title with an aging Joe Montana in 1993, and also coached Kansas City to the playoffs with Steve DeBerg taking the snaps. The best quarterback Schottenheimer has ever been around was a young Bernie Kosar at Cleveland in the Eighties. But Kosar was a better field general than a passer. Brees is the best young quarterback Schottenheimer has been around since Kosar.

"Drew has every bit the intellect that Bernie had, which was one of Bernie's strengths, plus he has more mobility," Schottenheimer says. "This kid is going to be special. He has great poise. He has an air about him, a swagger, that all the good ones have." Brees was San Diego's number two draft pick in 2001, but he sat and watched Doug Flutie play the position all year. In his only action, Brees relieved an injured Flutie in a November game against Kansas City and completed 15 of 27 passes for 221 yards and a touchdown. He rallied the Chargers from a 19--0 deficit into the lead, but the San Diego defense couldn't hold on in the final minutes. In his last five seasons as a starting quarterback--two in high school and three at Purdue--Brees posted a 52--13--1 record. He left Purdue as the Big Ten's all-time leading passer. In a quarterback-driven league, Brees gives Schottenheimer a chance for a longer tenure in San Diego than he had in Washington.

The Oakland Raiders also have a new coach. The team promoted offensive coordinator Bill Callahan when Tampa sent four premium draft picks and $8 million for Jon Gruden. The salary cap has made the NFL a young man's game, but the Raiders remain defiant. They are one of the NFL's oldest teams, with eight starters in their 30s--including quarterback Rich Gannon (36) and wide receivers Jerry Rice (39) and Tim Brown (36). Two first-round draft picks--cornerback Phillip Buchanon and linebacker Napoleon Harris--bring youth and skill to the defense.

The Denver Broncos haven't won a playoff game since allowing all-decade tight end Shannon Sharpe to leave as a free agent in 2000. So the Broncos brought him back this season. Denver also could use a healthy Terrell Davis, who rushed for 2008 yards in 1998 when the Broncos won their last Super Bowl. But he has missed 31 games in the three seasons since then with a variety of knee injuries and has rushed for only 1194 yards.

The Kansas City Chiefs focused on offense in Dick Vermeil's first season as head coach in 2001. Priest Holmes won the NFL rushing title to spark a top five offense. But Trent Green struggled at quarterback, throwing more interceptions (24) than touchdowns (17), and the Chiefs labored on defense, in particular against the run. Kansas City claimed two of the top five defensive tackles in the 2002 draft--Ryan Sims and Eddie Freeman. But with five home losses last season, the Arrowhead mystique is gone.

Playboy's Picks

By Gill Brandt

NFC East

Philadelphia.....11--5

Dallas.....8--8

Washington.....8--8

Giants.....5--11

NFC North

Green Bay.....10--6

Chicago.....10--6

Minnesota.....7--9

Detroit.....4--12

NFC South

New Orleans.....9--7

Atlanta.....8--8

Tampa Bay.....7--9

Carolina.....3--13

NFC West

St. Louis.....11--5

San Francisco.....10--6

Seattle.....9--7

Arizona.....6--10

AFC East

Miami.....10--6

New England.....10--6

Buffalo.....7--9

Jets.....6--10

AFC North

Pittsburgh.....12--4

Cleveland.....10--6

Cincinnati.....8--8

Baltimore.....5--11

AFC South

Indianapolis.....10--6

Tennessee.....9--7

Jacksonville.....8--8

Houston.....4--12

AFC West

Oakland.....10--6

San Diego.....9--7

Denver.....8--8

Kansas City.....5--11

NFC Wild Cards: Chicago and San Francisco

AFC Wild Cards: New England and Cleveland

NFC Champion: St. Louis

AFC Champion: Pittsburgh

Super Bowl Champion: Pittsburgh Steelers