NFL Roulette: The Playboy 2003 Preview

Put it all on 28. Make that 29. Oh hell, just put it on black." If you feel that trying to make sense of the upcoming NFL season has become like playing the big wheel in Las Vegas, you're not alone. Sure, your best friend claims to have picked the Buccaneers, the Patriots and the Ravens. But he also claims he shorted Enron stock and knows Heidi Klum's cell number.

Truth be told, we're in the midst of an all-out storm-the-Bastille revolution in pro football. A decade of free agency and ever-tightening salary caps have combined to create a wilder, less predictable NFL. Whether this change is for better or for worse is up for debate. But at the crack of the millennium, pro football has tapped into one of the central truths of sports: There is nothing duller than a dynasty. For most of the past 30 years, the NFL was as unsurprising as a State of the Union address. The Steelers dominate. (Yawn.) Then the 49ers. (Pass the chips.) Dallas. (Hmm.) Denver. (What's on HBO?) Throw in a few good years for Green Bay, Oakland and Washington, and you've pretty much summed up the long history of the league.

This year? It's all up for grabs. There are 32 teams, most with a shot at shaking up the league. Anyone (except the Cincinnati Bengals) can beat anyone, and one big play--or key injury--can upset the league's fragile balance of power. It's not only democratic, it's entertaining.

In a time of fundamental change, however, there are some constants. The key is to stay ahead of the curve, anticipating the next development rather than reacting to the last one. So who's going to get that Gatorade shower in February? Here are some trends to point you in the right direction.

This Season, It's all up for Grabs. One Big Play, or Key Injury, Can Change Everything

1 The No-Dynasty Zone. Repeat after us: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will not win the Super Bowl this year. It's all but impossible to repeat in the modern NFL. After a franchise player gets a ring, he wants a raise. And in a league with free agency and a hard salary cap, that means hard choices, which may include jettisoning some of the players who helped win it all. This dilemma is made tougher by next season's first-place schedule. Add in injuries and just plain bad luck, and you can see why two-timing has become a pipe dream in the modern NFL.

2 Start at the Top. The most important guy on any football team is now the guy with the headset. Coaches don't get injured. Their seven-figure salaries don't count against the cap. They don't go off on benders on Super Bowl eve. Look at the recent Super Bowl upsets and you'll see familiar faces: Dick Vermeil, Bill Belichick, Jon Gruden. These guys succeeded elsewhere and learned from their mistakes. So keep an eye on veteran coaches in unfamiliar surroundings--Vermeil, Bill Parcells, Tony Dungy. And don't discount those low-key guys who've shown the ability to stay the course, from Mike Shanahan to Herman Edwards. Any could be the architect of a new league powerhouse.

3 Get Offensive. The Bucs have football experts babbling about the Era of the Mobile Defense. But everyone forgets that only three seasons ago the St. Louis Rams had those same experts touting a new Era of the Unstoppable Spread Offense. Then in 2001 the Ravens swung the pendulum in the other direction. In the postmillennial NFL, an era lasts one season--tops.

So where's the pendulum swinging this year? Back to the guys with the ball. At this very moment, every offensive coordinator is studying game films to devise new strategies for picking apart that great Bucs D and its clones.

4 Air it out. How are teams going to solve these new-school Ds? Go over them. Passing is the cornerstone of modern football. There's been a recent trend toward undervaluing the contribution of the quarterback. Don't buy into it. The Trent Dilfers and the Brad Johnsons are merely blips between the departure of the Elways and the Aikmans and the emergence of the new breed of franchise QB.

5 The QB of the Future. What's next for the game's most important position? Only a few years ago NFL experts were heralding the Era of the Running Quarterback: Steve McNair, Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, Daunte Culpepper. So far, none has won a Super Bowl. NFL coaches have learned the hard way that no matter how well a QB runs, he simply becomes another running back. Rushing doesn't win championships: passing does.

Look for the emergence of a bunch of young, pass-first hotshots, from the Jets' Chad Pennington, who has been called a bigger, stronger Joe Montana, to the Bengals' top pick, Carson Palmer, who may be a bigger, stronger Pennington. And don't discount some still young supertalented passers who have yet to hit their potential. (Are you listening, Jake Plummer?) Even in an era when everything's up for grabs, the road to the Super Bowl is still paved with 14-yard completions.