Open Season

Baseball is in a state of shock. The 2004 season is set to start this month--2,430 games, nearly 22,000 innings, during which stars will be born and careers will be destroyed and millions of dollars will change hands, just as in so many summers before. But given what happened last October and over the winter, this season could be freakier than any other in 150 years of midget pinch hitters, bench-clearing brawls and acid-tripping aces.

Let's start with last year's wild-ride postseason. You're mistaken if you think for a minute that the Cubs aren't desperate to erase from memory their monumental collapse, that the potential for violence between Red Sox and Yankees fans and players isn't real, that George Steinbrenner isn't still humiliated by having his nose rubbed in the sacred turf of the House That Ruth Built. Baseball seasons usually heat up in late summer, when the rage born of competition starts to fuel the game.

This season begins on that note.

The wild postseason led to an equally wild off-season. No, the trade of the century--the one that would have shifted the allegiances of five All-Stars, most notably Alex Rodriguez, the game's highest-paid player--didn't come to fruition. Still, two former MVPs, two Cy Young Award winners, two 20-game winners and a guy who has been compared to a young Joe DiMaggio changed addresses. Few teams resemble what they once were.

And then there are the looming scandals--an ever-growing number of land mines waiting to explode onto the front page of your daily sports section.

So what will be the most enduring stories of 2004? Read on.

The s Word. This season, for the first time in history, every major league baseball player will be subject to random steroid testing. If we go through a second straight year without someone hitting 50 home runs, or if certain suspiciously beefy players suddenly resemble Ichiro from the neck down, what will that say about the purity of recent stats? Which records should have asterisks next to them? With the Balco investigation under way, these questions will come into play this season. Ten years from now, folks could be dissing Barry Bonds's home run records--he's fewer than 100 behind Hank Aaron for the all-time mark--in a way Pete Rose could never have imagined. Or not. Stay tuned.

Anyone Can Win. The Tigers will make the playoffs sooner or later. (Okay, later.) But in the 21st century, winning is no longer just a function of payroll but of the new way GMs are evaluating talent. Each year a small-market club--the Twins, the Angels, the Royals--comes out of nowhere to contend. Last year's National League East standings prove that it's better to be smart than rich. The Mets spent twice as much as the Marlins... and finished 24 and a half games behind them.

So which team will step up this season? The underachieving Rangers? The Padres, with their young pitching and new park? These teams could lose 95 games--but they're capable of winning that many as well. No matter what baseball town you live in, don't be surprised to see games played there come October.

The C Word. Sometime last winter baseball's owners got together and took a blood oath, like kids in a tree house: "No more expensive free agent contracts. Pinkie swear." At least that's what the suits at the Players Association believe. Hell, the off-season free agent market was flatter than Debra Messing. Free agents just aren't getting the big money. The owners say they're being frugal. The players' union says it smells like collusion part two, that the owners made a deal not to bid against each other for free agents. (In the aftermath of part one, in 1987, the players won a cool $280 million settlement.)

This is more than just a business-page story. If the players are correct, baseball is less about winning than it is about jacking up profits for a small handful of greedy suits. Either way, after an unprecedented 15 months of peace, the sports world's answer to the Hatfields and the McCoys are at it again. Get ready for war.

The Curse Will Be Broken. Repeat after us: The Red Sox and Cubbies aren't cursed, they're incompetent. Babe Ruth's departure didn't cause the Sox's post-season failures--a weak bullpen did, the problem that plagued the team from week one of last season. And the Cubs? If they had a bullpen in the postseason they'd be getting fitted for rings right now.

Guess what Santa brought to Bean-town and the Windy City? Keith Foulke and LaTroy Hawkins, respectively, two relievers who could deliver baseball fans their dream World Series: Red Sox vs. Cubs. We can see it now. They'll get to game seven ... and play 27 nail-biting innings. Boston will blow a lead when its first baseman boots a dribbler. A Cubs fan will reach out of the stands and alter the course of history. And at 3:42 A.M. Eastern time the game will be called on account of Bud Selig falling asleep.

Or the Cubs will just beat the Sox in six games.

American League East

1. Boston Red Sox

Last season: 95--67. The Sox were on their way to beating the Yankees in the ALCS when... well, you know the rest.

Scouting report: Whoa! GM Theo Epstein acquired Curt Schilling (career 163 wins, 3.33 ERA), who'll team with Pedro Martinez for a knockout one-two punch in the rotation. He also added closer Keith Foulke from the A's, who'll bolster the bullpen. This staff could be dynamite. In the field, newly acquired second baseman Pokey Reese will add some much-needed leather. David Ortiz (.592 slugging percentage) and Bill Mueller (AL-best .326 average) won't repeat their breakout years at the plate, but they won't have to.

X factor: New skipper Terry Francona will have to mend fences with Nomar Garciaparra and Manny Ramirez, both nearly dealt in the failed A-Rod trade.

Prediction: America's most self-loathing city badly needs a World Series win. It just might get it.

2. Toronto Blue Jays

Last season: 86--76. Lending a little order to an otherwise unpredictable world, the Blue Jays finished third in the AL East... for the sixth consecutive year.

Scouting report: You can make an argument for Carlos Delgado (42 homers, 145 RBI) as the game's best hitter, for Vernon Wells (33 homers, 117 RBI) as the game's next superstar, for Roy Halladay (22--7, Cy Young Award) as the best pitcher in all of baseball. Still, the Jays haven't made the playoffs since 1993. Whether they can pull it off this year depends on...

X factor: ... three newly acquired pitchers, including the projected number-two starter (Miguel Batista), the number-three starter (Ted Lilly) and closer Kerry Ligtenberg, whose best year was in 1998, when he tallied a mediocre 30 saves with the Braves.

Prediction: The Jays will sneak in as the wild card. "O Canada...!"

3. New York Yankees

Last season: 101--61. For any other club, a World Series loss is a good season. Not for the Yankees.

Scouting report: Call it heresy, but replacing Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens and Jeff Weaver with Javier Vazquez, Kevin Brown and a full season of Jose Contreras could make the pitching better. At the plate, though, this lineup is dubious, led by a hobbled Jason Giambi (.250), an aging Bernie Williams (64 RBI), a streaky Alfonso Soriano (130 strikeouts, 38 walks) and Gary Sheffield (.330), the newest pin-striped superstar, who will have to pull a lot of weight.

X factor: Zenmaster closer Mariano Rivera, 34, has made three trips to the disabled list in the past two seasons.

Prediction: The Yanks will miss the playoffs for the first time since 1993.

4. Baltimore Orioies

Last season: 71--91. The O's finished with their sixth straight losing summer. Ever seen a bird fly full speed into a window? Welcome to Camden Yards.

Scouting report: In Miguel Tejada (27 homers, 106 RBI), Javy Lopez (.328, 43 homers) and Viagra stud Rafael Palmeiro (38 homers, 112 RBI), the Orioles added heavy bats to an already decent lineup (ranked 10th out of 30 in batting average last year). But management also cut loose some key pitchers, including Jason Johnson and Damian Moss. The team's top returning hurlers are, um, Rodrigo Lopez (7--10) and Omar Daal (4--11). The good news: Sidney Ponson has signed for 2004.

X factor: The O's sold 2.5 million tickets last year, 1.2 million fewer than in 1997. Our advice: free beer. Never fails.

Prediction: Lots of hitting--in both halves of the inning--will juice Camden Yards and make new manager Lee Mazzilli pine for the Bronx.

5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Last season: 63--99. Manager Lou Piniella doesn't like to lose. He's in the wrong town.

Scouting report: The D-Rays had the lowest payroll in baseball last season, and they don't figure to spend much more this year. The squad has some young talent, like Carl Crawford, who may be the best athlete in the bigs (he was recruited as a quarterback by Nebraska and as a point guard by UCLA), and rising stars Aubrey Huff (.311, 34 homers) and Rocco Baldelli. But the pitching remains suspect. At best.

X factor: Tampa Bay has seen its attendance fall every year the team has been in the league.

Prediction: If last year proved anything, it's that any club can win the World Series. Except the Devil Rays.

National League West

1. San Francisco Giants

Last season: 100--61. Losing the World Series and manager Dusty Baker didn't faze the Giants, who won their second division title in four years.

Scouting report: The good news is that they acquired catcher A.J. Pierzynski (.312), who might be their second-best hitter behind Barry Bonds. That's also the bad news. They lost Rich Aurilia (mediocre in 2003, but he hit .324 with 37 homers in 2001) to the Mariners. On the mound, Jason Schmidt is a true ace. Since coming over from Pittsburgh in 2001, he's gone 37--14 with a 3.06 ERA.

X factor: For this team to click, untested hurlers Jerome Williams, 22, and Kevin Correia, 23, will have to step up.

Prediction: The win-it-now Giants will go as far as 39-year-old Bonds will take them. And that should be deep.

2. San Diego Padres

Last season: 64--98. The weather was great. The baseball wasn't.

Scouting report: Is this a baseball team or a day care center? A group of promising kids, led by third baseman Sean Burroughs and shortstop Khalil Greene, will help power the Pads, while vets David Wells and Ismael Valdes will support young guns Jake Peavy, Adam Eaton and Brian Lawrence on the mound. Newly acquired Brian Giles (.427 on-base percentage since moving to the NL) and a full season of Phil Nevin will improve the lineup. GM Kevin Towers has raised the team's payroll to $60 million to move the Pads into quick contention.

X factor: With San Diego's gorgeous female fans showing up in bikini tops, will the young players be able to keep their eye on the ball?

Prediction: A little luck (okay, a lot) could make the Padres this year's version of the 2003 Marlins.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers

Last season: 85--77. The last time the Dodgers won a division title in a nonstrike season, Slim Fast--chuggin' Tommy Lasorda was the manager.

Scouting report: While first in ERA, the Dodgers finished dead last in the majors in runs scored in 2003, and they don't figure to get any better this season. Their great hope: Juan Encarnacion (94 RBI), acquired from Florida. He won't be enough. The Dodgers traded ace Kevin Brown for head case Jeff Weaver, but 20-year-old super-prospect Edwin Jackson (2--1, 2.45 ERA in three late-season starts) could be the second coming of Pedro Martinez. The game's best closer, Eric Gagne (55 saves in 55 opportunities), will hold as many leads as this team's anemic offense can give him.

X factor: After hitting 91 homers in the two previous seasons, Shawn Green hit 19 in 2003. Bat him cleanup or leadoff?

Prediction: The Dodgers will give the crowds at Chavez Ravine little reason not to beat the traffic.

4. Arizona Diamondbacks

Last season: 84--78. The D-backs posted their worst record since their 1998 expansion season.

Scouting report: The addition of Richie Sexson (45 homers, 124 RBI) should boost what was a meager lineup--36-year-old Luis Gonzalez and 39-year-old Steve Finley were the only hitters to drive in more than 52 runs in 2003. But the club's real strength has always been pitching. Despite an underwhelming 10--9 record, rookie Brandon Webb finished fourth in the NL in ERA (2.84). He could offset the loss of Curt Schilling.

X factor: Cooperstown-bound hulk Randy Johnson turned 40 last September (nine days before hitting his first major league homer). Tough to say what he'll do this year.

Prediction: Sorry, folks. There will be no October surprise in Arizona in 2004.

5. Colorado Rockies

Last season: 74--88. The Rockies had the most extreme home-road splits in baseball, going 49--32 (.605) at Coors and only 25--56 (.309) on the road.

Scouting report: Management spent the off0-season signing players from all over and sending others packing. All this movement will have little impact. We're not sure what GM Dan O'Dowd is trying to pull. The biggest incoming name is aging Vinny Castilla (.277, 22 homers with the Braves), who thrived with the Rockies in the 1990s. Meanwhile Todd Helton (.358, second in the majors) is poised for another great year.

X factor: On the mound, club ace Jason Jennings (12--13, 5.11 ERA) is no doubt counting the days until free agency.

Prediction: Dig offense? Watch the Rockies. Dig winning? Look elsewhere.

American League Central

1. Minnesota Twins

Last season: 90--72. Division champs. These players are scoring--chicks, that is.

Scouting report: No money? No problem. The Twins' farm system has yielded three players ready to move into the lineup--catcher Joe Mauer and infielders Justin Morneau and Mike Cuddyer. They hope that will make up for the loss of A.J. Pierzynski (.312, 74 RBI). The team will need everything it can get for the $6 million it's paying Shannon Stewart (.307 but only 13 dingers).

X factor: Pitching. Southpaw Johan Santana (12--3, 3.07 ERA) is a jewel, but the team lost closer Eddie Guardado and setup man LaTroy Hawkins.

Prediction: The Twins will snatch the division in the final days of the season.

2. Kansas City Royals

Last season: 83--79. Kansas City bounced back after losing 100 games in 2002.

Scouting report: The Royals are a testament to the quality of baseball's scrap heap. Sure, shortstop Angel Berroa (great baseball name) was AL Rookie of the Year, but the guys who pulled the weight were journeymen, most of whom return this season: Joe Randa, Jose Lima, Curt Leskanic. The big news in Kansas City? The arrival of two-time-MVP outfielder Juan Gonzalez and the re-signing of Carlos Beltran. Score!

X factor: Can Gonzo stay healthy? He played only 152 games in the past two seasons.

Prediction: Don't be surprised if this club takes the field for a 163rd game.

3. Chicago White Sok

Last season: 86--76. Five consecutive September losses to the Twins cost this team the division. That's gotta hurt.

Scouting report: Let's see. The Sox lost their best starting pitcher (Bartolo Colon), their best reliever (Tom Gordon), an All-Star outfielder (Carl Everett) and a Hall of Fame second baseman (Robbie Alomar). They did re-sign outfielder Carlos Lee and southpaw hurler Mark Buerhle, but that's a Band-Aid on a bullet wound.

X factor: Is Esteban Loaiza for real? Last year's numbers (21--9, 2.90 ERA) say one thing. His 69--73 career record entering 2003 says something else.

Prediction: New manager Ozzie Guillen will need every bit of the goodwill he built up in 13 years of playing in the dirt at Comiskey Park.

4. Cleveland Indians

Last season: 68--94. The team amused fans by playing guys named Milton Bradley and Coco Crisp.

Scouting report: The Indians didn't pick up any serious new talent. The club will rely on youngsters such as Ryan Ludwick, Victor Martinez and Alex Escobar, hoping that a couple will break out the way Bradley did last season (team-high .321 average). Key player: Cleveland's ace, C.C. Sabathia (13--9, 3.60 ERA), is young enough to be part of the rebuilding program.

X factor: Bradley is a head case (see "Field of Screams" on page 123). Will he end up an All-Star or an inmate?

Prediction: It's been 55 years since the Indians won a World Series. Next stop: 56. Go Browns!

5. Detroit Tigers

Last season: 43--119. The Tigers didn't just suck. They sucked like Madonna's last album. Worse, even.

Scouting report: Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski built the Marlins' 1997 title team and the foundation of their 2003 team. Now he's making a commitment to prospects such as first baseman Carlos Pena and shortstop Omar Infante, and pitchers Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Cornejo and Franklyn German. The future could get brighter. But for 2004, even Pudge Rodriguez wouldn't make a difference.

X factor: Bonderman lost 19 games last year. But that's a ton of big-league experience for a 20-year-old. Don't be surprised if the young gun turns out to be 2004's silver lining.

Prediction: The Tigers will make a nail-biting September run for second-to-last place! And come up short.(continued on page 159)Open Season(continued from page 124)

NL East

1. Philadelphia Phillies

Last season: 86--76. In the final two weeks the Phils dropped four of five to the Marlins, losing a playoff bid and a good chunk of dignity.

Scouting report: GM Ed Wade has breathed new life into the club, adding scary closer Billy Wagner (105 strikeouts in 86 innings, 100-plus mph fastball) and veteran setup man Tim Worrell. Kevin Millwood anchors a deep, if not spectacular, starting staff. At the plate last year Jim Thome (47 homers, 131 RBI) proved once again that he's one of baseball's best power hitters. Pat Burrell hit .209 in 2003, the lowest of any regular in baseball. He's way too talented to be that shitty again.

X factor: All four of the teams that have moved into a new stadium since 2000 have had losing seasons in their first year. Can Philly buck the trend?

Prediction: The cranky Larry Bowa knows it's win or else. The Phils will either snag the division or implode like Veterans Stadium. Either way it should be fun to watch.

2. Florida Marlins

Last season: 91--71. It's been said that anything can happen. Last year two unlikely forces proved that dictum: Governor Schwarzenegger and the Marlins. Both made us laugh and cry in equal parts.

Scouting report: The Marlins cut costs in the off-season, though not to the extent of the fire sale that followed their first title in 1997. Still, the pitching staff is solid. Josh Beckett will be a perennial Cy Young contender (that is, if skipper Jack McKeon doesn't wear out Beckett's arm). Dontrelle Willis (14--6, 3.30 ERA) has filthy stuff (that's good), A.J. Burnett (an NL-best five shutouts in 2002) should return from arm surgery, and Carl Pavano has been seen canoodling with Alyssa Milano. At the plate, 21-year-old outfielder Miguel Cabrera is set to shine, and Mike Lowell (32 homers, 105 RBI) has signed on for the long haul.

X factor: Brad Penny (4.22 career ERA) went 2--0 with a 2.19 ERA in the World Series against the Yankees' big bats. Was this a turning point for the erratic righty or a mere tease?

Prediction: If the pitching stays healthy, the Marlins will contend again.

3. Atlanta Braves

Last season: 101--61. The Braves are as reliable as locusts. Every year they win the NL East--the last time they didn't finish at the top of the division, the other George Bush was president--and every year they collapse in the postseason.

Scouting report: Manager Bobby Cox hasn't had a losing record in a full season since 1982. But this year the Braves are without future Hall of Famers Gary Sheffield (.330, 39 homers) and Greg Maddux (289 career wins), and All-Star catcher Javy Lopez (.328, 43 homers). A nervous Cox will rely on the Jones boys--Andruw and Chipper--to drive in runs. If pitching guru Leo Mazzone can continue to work his magic with cast-off starters Russ Ortiz (21--7) and Mike Hampton (14--8), John Smoltz will collect a ton of saves again. The acquisition of setup man Antonio Alfonseca can only help.

X factor: Atlanta has dropped six of its last seven playoff series. Can a team that's suffered that kind of humiliation keep coming back for more?

Prediction: The Braves' run of NL East titles will come to an end at 12.

4. New York Mets

Last season: 66--95. Another year, another bunch of expensive free agents, another disaster. And this time they didn't have Bobby Valentine to blame.

Scouting report: The Mets are baseball's most notorious shopaholics. Mo Vaughn for only $15 million? Where's the MasterCard? (Fat Mo has apparently quit the game, but he'll get paid for 2004.) Management flirted in a big way with Vladimir Guerrero, but the team ultimately picked up only two high-priced players--center fielder Mike Cameron (.253, $4 million) and Japanese shortstop Kaz Matsui ($5 million). A slightly pissed-off Mike Piazza will begin the shift to first base. He'll probably hold a news conference to talk about it. In terms of pitching, forget it. If you've got an arm, you might as well show up for spring training. Both Al Leiter and Tom Glavine will turn 38. At least the Mets still have John Franco, 43, who signed on for another year.

X factor: Does Matsui have the goods?

Prediction: Art Howe's Mets will actually flirt with first place early in the summer before injuries do them in.

5. Montreal Expos

Last season: 83--79. Les 'Spos compiled their second consecutive winning campaign. Pretty impressive considering the low payroll.

Scouting report: Montreal couldn't find a buyer before its best young players reached pay-up-or-shut-up time. The result: The club didn't have the dough to keep superstar Vlad "the Impaler" Guerrero (.323 over eight seasons) in town. He walked without so much as a draft pick as compensation. The Expos will also miss their top pitcher of 2003, Javier Vazquez, who fled to the Bronx. On the plus side, GM Omar Minaya resigned shortstop Orlando Cabrera (.297, 80 RBI), who started every game last year, and picked up free agents Carl Everett and Tony Batista (26 dingers). Nick Johnson, acquired from the Yankees in the Vazquez deal, could put up Todd Helton (on-the-road) numbers. Don't look for help from the farm system, though--Minaya traded away most of his prospects in a misguided attempt to contend in 2002.

X factor: Jose Vidro might be the most underrated player in baseball. He hits for average (.310) and is competent in the field, à la Robbie Alomar in his prime. But how long will he remain an Expo?

Prediction: A homeless team simply can't contend.

NL Central

1. Chicago Cubs

Last season: 88--74. Avert your eyes, Cubs fans. Five outs away from their first World Series since the Truman administration and it all fell to pieces.

Scouting report: The Cubs have more quality arms than Donald Rumsfeld, with Kerry Wood (14--11, 3.20 ERA), Mark Prior (18--6, 2.43 ERA), Matt Clement (14--12, 4.11 ERA) and Carl Zambrano (a 3.57 career ERA that belies his 18--21 record). This staff will win games if it stays healthy (Dusty Baker rode his young arms too hard last year, running pitch counts above 120 a major-league-high 26 times). At the plate, Baker added Derrek Lee (31 homers) and Todd Walker, a much-needed lefty hitter. A cork-free Sammy Sosa will continue his Cooperstown run.

X factor: LaTroy Hawkins arrives to compete for the closer role, an area in which the Cubbies could use some help. As a setup guy for the Twins, Hawkins was 15--3 with an ERA of 2.00 over the past two seasons. But prior to that he had seven mediocre years. With the pressure on, the real Hawkins is about to step forward.

Prediction: Last year's team played deep into October, and this season's version is even better. Security alert: If the Cubs take it all, the fans will go apeshit.

2. Houston Astros

Last season: 87--75. The 'Stros challenged for the Central title, then lost six of their last nine games. Oops.

Scouting report: Houston's pitching staff looks tough to beat. Though closer Billy Wagner is gone, fireballer Octavio Dotel (97 strikeouts in 87 innings in 2003) should fill his shoes capably. The starting rotation features four potential Cy Young contenders--Roy Oswalt (10--5, 2.97 ERA), Wade Miller (14--13 but 31--12 in 2001 and 2002) and Yankees exports Roger Clemens (17--9) and Andy Pettitte (21--8). Pettitte may miss New York more than he'll let on. The Yankees scored 7.04 runs per game for him last year, the second-best run support in baseball. That said, the Astros can put runs on the board too. More than half of last year's starting lineup hit more than 20 homers, though mainstays Craig Biggio (.264) and Jeff Bagwell (.278) are on the decline.

X factor: The entire Lone Star state will be focused on Oswalt's groin. That might make the 26-year-old uncomfortable in more ways than one. He had surgery down there after making three trips to the disabled list last season.

Prediction: The Astros have never won a playoff series, but this could be the year.

3. St. Louis Cardinals

Last season: 85--77. The Cardinals scored runs aplenty (876, second in the NL). Problem was, they gave up a few as well (796, 1lth).

Scouting report: St. Louis picked up spare parts from around the league, but it will mostly rely on last year's talent. Albert Pujols is the best pure hitter on this or any other planet (a league-best .359 average, not to mention 43 homers and 124 RBI). Meanwhile Edgar Renteria emerged as a poor man's Derek Jeter, batting .330 with 47 doubles. Too bad these guys can't pitch, too. While the Cards have a couple of good starters in Woody Williams (18--9) and Matt Morris (11--8), there's no true ace.

X factor: This team's fate may rest with the newly acquired pitchers, none of whom is a proven commodity--Jeff Sup-pan (13--11, 4.19 ERA), who'll eat up innings, and former Braves Adam Wain-wright and Jason Marquis.

Prediction: Like the Rams, the Cardinals will jazz St. Louis fans for much of the season, but it won't end well.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates

Last season: 75--87. A fresh new lineup yielded the same old results, as the Pirates registered their 11th straight losing season.

Scouting report: Pittsburgh fans have probably already started drinking their blues away. After all, twice the Pirates have set up a five-year rebuilding plan, and twice the plan has failed. They're starting over once again. Last year they traded arguably their best player, Brian Giles (.299). They've also unloaded some dead-wood (Reggie Sanders, Kenny Lofton), all to begin focusing on young talent such as Jason Bay and Oliver Perez, acquired in the Giles trade. A pivotal off-season move was the resigning of Kip Wells (10--9, 3.28 ERA), an ace in the making.

X factor: Despite the Pirates' new luxury ballpark, owner Kevin McClatchy is crying poverty again, promising to slash the team's $54 million 2003 payroll to $35 million. Yep, that should help the rebuilding program.

Prediction: In perhaps any other division, this team would reside in the basement. Not in the NL Central.

5. Cincinnati Reds

Last season: 69--93. The Reds christened the new Great American Ball Park with a 10--1 loss, and it was downhill from there. In midseason, only days after GM Jim Bowden got the boot, the Reds dealt a bunch of good players in a series of salary dumps, leaving new GM Dan O'Brien in the lurch.

Scouting report: Cincinnati hadn't made any significant pickups at press time, but the team could get better just by staying healthy for manager Dave Miley. Ken Griffey Jr. did two long stints on the disabled list, and Austin Kearns, Adam Dunn and Barry Larkin all finished the season on the shelf. And the team suffered a serious blow in the offseason when promising young outfielder Dernell Stenson was killed in an apparent carjacking. Reds pitchers yielded a 5.09 ERA last season, 27th out of 30 teams. One bright spot: Closer of the future Ryan Wagner posted a 1.66 ERA.

X factor: Left fielder Dunn, 24, slugged 27 homers in only 381 at bats. The bad news: He batted a pathetic .215.

Prediction: Cincinnati may be big and red, but so is a canker sore.

6. Milwaukee Brewers

Last season: 68--94. Like Pittsburgh, Milwaukee put up its 11th losing season in a row. The upside: Win or lose, it's always Miller time at Miller Park.

Scouting report: The club's board of directors agreed to cut payroll by 25 percent, to a major league low of $30 million. Derek Jeter picks up dinner tabs for more than that. The biggest loss: slugger Richie Sexson (45 homers, 124 RBI). Outfielder Ben Grieve, a former Rookie of the Year, will be a welcome addition, but he's no savior. Some of last year's talent remains, notably Scott Podsednik (.314) and Geoff Jenkins (95 RBI). Brooks Kieschnick is a homeless man's Babe Ruth. He hit .300 in 69 games as a designated hitter and pitched 53 innings of mediocre (5.26 ERA) relief, the first player to pull off that kind of double duty since 1964.

X factor: The hell with it. There isn't one, not for this club. Did someone say Miller time?

Prediction: With a little luck--bad luck, that is--the Brewers could be the Tigers of the National League.

AL West

1. Seattle Mariners

Last season: 93--69. The Mariners broke from the gate quickly but couldn't top Oakland in the end.

Scouting report: With 41-year-old lefty Jamie Moyer anchoring the rotation, 41-year-old Edgar Martinez as arguably its best hitter, and 35-year-olds Bret Boone and John Olerud toiling in the infield, call this team the ancient Mariners. But combine all that experience with the superstud youth on the mound--Joel Pineiro (16--11), Gil Meche (15--13) and relievers Rafael Soriano (1.53 ERA) and Julio Mateo (the oldest among this list at 26)--and you've got a team with potential. Though lacking a dominant closer, the bullpen was the AL's best last year, holding opposing hitters to a meager .311 on-base percentage. And never underestimate Ichiro, a true talent.

X factor: You have to wonder if the geriatrics will get weary in August when the divisional race literally heats up. Screw the Gatorade; serve up some Geritol.

Prediction: With money to spend (they were second in American League attendance in 2003) and a win-now attitude, the Mariners will take the AL West.

2. Texas Rangers

Last season: 71--91. The Rangers had the league's best player. And they were still lousy.

Scouting report: With baseball's most powerful infield (Alex Rodriguez, Hank Blalock and Mark Teixeira slugged 102 homers among them in 2003), the Rangers will score. But their pitching has been coyote ugly. The solution could be the young arms of Colby Lewis, Juan Dominguez and Joaquin Benoit, who were wrangled by Grady Fuson, the scout who drafted Barry Zito, Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson in Oakland. Pricey starting pitcher Chan Ho Park should return from a back injury. Key player: First baseman Teixeira (pronounced tuh-Cher-a) is a hitting machine. His 26 homers and 84 RBI as a rookie last year sent Rafael Palmeiro packing.

X factor: Buck Showalter is his own worst enemy. After micromanaging himself out of gigs in New York and Arizona, he alienated A-Rod in Texas with the near trade to Boston.

Prediction: The Rangers second in the division? That's right. Got a problem with that?

3. Oakland A's

Last season: 96--66. The A's have morphed into a left coast version of the Braves. They start slow, sizzle in the summer and then choke spectacularly in the playoffs. Anybody know the Heimlich?

Scouting report: Closer Keith Foulke and 2002 MVP Miguel Tejada are gone, so the A's will lean even more heavily on their big guns--Barry Zito, Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson, the finest one-two-three punch in the majors (3.03 ERA among them in 2003). They'll get help from newcomers Mark Redman (14--9 with the Marlins) and Arthur Rhodes (4.17 ERA as a reliever with the Mariners). Despite stat geek GM Billy Beane's emphasis on bringing in hitters who can get on base, the A's posted a paltry .327 on-base percentage in 2003, 21st in baseball. He'll try to strengthen the attack with a new center fielder and lead-off hitter, Mark Kotsay. Great, but in production terms he's no Jason Giambi.

X factor: After the Raiders' dismal season, Oakland desperately needs a winner. Can the A's handle the pressure?

Prediction: They lost some serious talent, but if the pitching stays healthy, the A's won't fall far.

4. Anaheim Angels

Last season: 77--85. The club's batting average fell from .282 to .268, and its ERA rose from 3.69 to 4.28. So much for an Angels dynasty.

Scouting report: Billboard billionaire Arturo Moreno became the first Hispanic owner when he bought the team from Disney in May for a reported $184 million. The hope was that the Angels would gain an edge in recruiting Latin players. Sure enough, free agent superstud Vlad Guerrero signed in the off-season. On the mound, young guns Jarrod Wash-burn, John Lackey and Ramon Ortiz--36--44 collectively in 2003--haven't lived up to their promise. New arrival Kelvim Escobar and nasty setup man Francisco Rodriguez (.172 batting average against) help anchor a badass bullpen.

X factor: Free agent starter Bartolo Colon has a primo arm, but with a four-year, $51 million contract in his back pocket, will the 240-pounder balloon into a Ruben Studdard look-alike? (That would make him an Angel flying without wings.)

Prediction: Lightning never strikes twice in the same place.

Playboy's

Picks

NL East:

Phillies

NL Central:

Cubs

NL West:

Giants

NL wild card:

Astros

AL East:

Red SOX

AL Central:

Twins

AL West:

Mariners

AL wild card:

Blue Jays

NL champions:

Cubs

AL champions:

Red Sox

World Champs:

Cuds

The Braves are as reliable as locusts. Every year they win the NL East and collapse in the postseason.