Playboy's NFL Preview

Slam! Did you hear that? It wasn't the crunch of a blitzing linebacker inflicting a hit on a quarterback. It was the sound of a window of opportunity closing in the NFL.

As football fans turn their attention away from clambakes and beach volleyball to matters of the gridiron, a few players and coaches are preparing for their moment of truth. More than in any recent season you'll see athletes doing the hustle with destiny in 2004. It's put-up-or-shut-up time, and that means every game will be worth watching, even the ones involving Arizona.

It starts with the Super Bowl--champion Patriots. Just when everyone was saying dynasties were dead in the NFL, the Pats went out and won two Super Bowls in three years. They begin this season riding a 15-game winning streak, three short of the record held by four different franchises. The Dolphins are one of those, and appropriately enough, if the Pats break the record this year, it will happen at home against Miami in week five.

By winning a second Super Bowl last year in Houston, Tom Brady and company have risen above the Pack. They're now better than the Brett Favre--led Green Bay title teams and a notch below the John Elway--led Broncos. Another Super Bowl win this year would move the Patriots into a league with the elite teams of all time: Joe Montana's 49ers, Troy Aikman's Cowboys and Terry Bradshaw's Steelers. The prospect of that alone makes this season a special one.

If one guy is capable of interfering with a

Patriots dynasty, it's Colts quarterback Peyton Manning, who also has a date with destiny this year. There's no hotter place in sports than under center in the NFL. Succeed and you go to Disney World; fail and you go to the hospital. On paper, 28-year-old Manning is already one of the most productive passers in history. But to establish true greatness he has to win the big game--and more than once. Manning finally bagged a playoff game last season, but against New England in the AFC championship game he had that deer-in-the-headlights look for which his detractors have always criticized him. Four interceptions later, his season was over. Manning's window of opportunity is beginning to close. In the NFL, one tough hit can end your career.

The same can be said for the Eagles' Donovan McNabb, 27, who has won the heart of everyone but Rush Limbaugh. McNabb's Eagles have been on destiny's door-step for a while now and have lost the NFC title game at home for two straight years. With all-world wide receiver Terrell Owens to throw to, McNabb now has no more excuses. It's put-up-or-shut-up time for him, too.

History could also be made on the sidelines in 2004. It's been 14 seasons since Bill Parcells got the Gatorade shower in the Super Bowl, back when he was coach of the Giants. The Tuna's rebuilding projects with the Jets and Patriots were successful, but it don't mean a thing if you ain't got that ring, especially in Texas. Former Parcells protégé Bill Belichick has won four Super Bowls, two as a head coach (with the Pats), and is in position to eclipse his former mentor's success. If Parcells can win a title with Dallas--and the Cowboys have added talent to their 10-6 squad of last year--he'll be the first head coach to win a Super Bowl with two different teams. That would put him in a league with Vince Lombardi. If he fails, you might find him in the next Levitra ad.

There's plenty more. Will the Falcons' Michael Vick step up and morph from a great athlete into a championship-caliber quarterback? Will the Giants' Jeremy Shockey finally zip the lip and live up to the hype? Can Joe Gibbs return from the grave and lead the talented Redskins back to the playoffs?

There are a million stories in an NFL season. In no other sport can an athlete achieve such heroism. At the same time, in no other sport can a hero become a has-been quite so quickly. Just ask Kurt Warner. Or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Did you catch that, Tom Brady? Peyton Manning? We're all watching.

The 2004 Preview

Listed in projected order of finish, our team-by-team guide to the winners and losers on the road to super bowl XXXIX

AFC East

New England Patriots

Last Season: How do you top a 14-2 regular season, 15 straight wins (counting the play-offs) and a championship? Outlook: Most of the 2003 squad returns, including Tom Brady, Ty Law, Willie McGinest, Tedy Bruschi, Deion Branch and Adam Vinatieri. The loss of run-stopping monster defensive tackle Ted Washington hurts, but 340-pound draft pick Vince Wilfork should fit right in on a defense that allowed the fewest points last year. The big news in New England: the arrival from the Bengals of running back Corey Dillon, a disenchanted thug--not the type of character guy that coach Bill Belichick typically covets. Will Dillon bring a rushing attack to New England, or will he be trouble? Tune in when the Patriots take on Peyton Manning and the Colts in week one. Crystal Ball: Brady and the Pats always make things interesting, winning nail-biters week after week. Expect more of the same this season--right up to the Super Bowl.

Miami Dolphins

Last Season: The Dolphins went 10-6 only to get shut out of the playoffs. That has to leave a bad taste. Outlook: Coach Dave Wannstedt has won 41games in four years with the Dolphins, two more than Bill Belichick in New England. But he has won only one playoff game and has missed the post-season two years in a row. Football-crazed Miami will feel a sense of urgency this year. The defense, third in the league in points allowed in 2003, should excel again, but will the offense? Receiver David Boston is the big addition, and Ricky Williams is simply awesome. But a shakeup on the offensive line should have a bigger impact. Crystal Ball: Miami's scary quarterback situation--eminently abusable Jay Fiedler and former Eagles backup A.J. Feeley--will tell you everything you need to know about Wannstedt's job security.

New York Jets

Last Season: QB Chad Pennington suffered a freak wrist injury during a preseason game and it was downhill from there. Record: 6-10. Outlook: The offense could be one of the best in the league, depending on Pennington's ability to deal with high expectations. The good news: He'll have a new target in receiver Justin McCareins, who'll complement emerging speedster Santana Moss. Curtis Martin rushed for 1,308 yards last year, but at the age of 31 he may be slowing down. Free-agent safety Reggie Tongue will delight New York Post headline writers and should improve an already decent defense. How critical is a winning season in 2004? Unlike patient patriach Leon Hess, current jets owner Woody johnson takes names. If the Jets don't make the playoffs, he'll take the names of coach Herman Edwards and GM Terry Bradway. Crystal Ball: A tough late season schedule will sink this club's postseason hopes.

Buffalo Bills

Last Season: The Bills opened with a 31-0 win over Tom Brady and Patriots, but they won only five more games. Outlook: New coach Mike Mularkey has the NFL's most unfortunate name since Dick Butkus, but as the offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh he performed the impossible: He turned former XFLer Tommy Maddox into an elite NFL passer. Mularkey has more to work with here, with Drew Bledsoe, running back Travis Henry and receivers Eric Moulds and first-round draft pick LeeEvans. Because Bledsoe has the mobility of an oak tree, the play of guard Chris Villarrial, who replaces Pro Bowler Ruben Brown, could determine the QB's neurological wellbeing. The defense, which was second in the NFL in yards allowed in 2003, should be solid again. Crystal Ball: In most divisions the Bills would be a contender. In the tough AFC East, 8--8 would qualify as a moral victory.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks

Last Season: Ray Rhodes's defense went from awful to adequate, while Matt Hasselbeck and the offense went from good to great. The Seahawks (10-6) made the postseason for the first time since 1999. Outlook: Seattle's top draft picks, defensive tackle Marcus Tubbs (University of Texas) and safety Michael Boulware (Florida State), along with defensive end Grant Wistrom, acquired from division rival St. Louis, will toughen up the defense and put the Seahawks in a position to dominate this division. The offense did't need any help. Hasselbeck threw for 3,841 yards and 26 TDs in 2003, despite 50 dropped balls, including six in the end zone. Count on him and running back Shaun Alexander (1,435 yards) to fill the highlight reels again. Crystal Ball: The Seahawks are post-season bound. And they'll make some noise once they get there.

St. Louis Rams

Last Season: The Rams had a fine year (12--4), but with all that talent the fans were expecting a championship. Outlook: St. Louis enters the season with something to prove. The team returns most of its top offensive dogs, minus ailing Jesus freak Kurt Warner. In Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce and Marshall Faulk, signal caller Marc Bulger (3,845 passing yards in 2003, third in the NFL) will have more weapons than Donald Rumsfeld. Then again, this team has been the pick to win the Super Bowl for the past three years. The defense has slipped from championship level, and new coordinator Larry Marmie is no Bill Belichick--his Cardinals defense was worst in the league last year. Crystal Ball: A soft schedule will help the Rams snag a wild-card spot.

San Francisco 49ers

Last Season: A 7--9 campaign doesn't go over well in a rabid football city like San Francisco. Outlook: QB Tim Rattay is no Joe Montana. Coach Dennis Erickson has been touted as the Stephen Hawking of offensive football, but with Jeff Garcia, Terrell Owens, Tai Streets and Garrison Hearst all gone, the 49ers may need more than genius to match last year's 384 points. The defense has talent, led by linebacker Julian Peterson, a legit Pro Bowler. But the squad underachieved last season--the Niners lost five games by three points or fewer. A repeat of that performance and the self-important Erickson will be looking for a job. Crystal Ball: Niners fans primed for playoff excitement should dust off the tape of Super Bowl XXIII.

Arizona Cardinals

Last Season: Take your pick of pejoratives for the worst organization in the NFL, a team that won four games in 2003. The last time the Cards won 10 games Jimmy Carter was president. Outlook: New coach Dennis Green brings a glimmer of hope to the desert. Green was moderately successful in Minnesota, but now he'll have half the talent to work with. His main weapons: Anquan Boldin and rookie Larry Fitzgerald, two wideouts who can make the big play. QB Josh McCown has played in just 12 pro games. Defensive end Bert Berry, a former Bronco, should lend some credibility to what was an ineffective pass rush. Crystal Ball: The Cards open against the Rams and the Pats. What is this, a cruel joke?

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts

Last Season: So much for the 12--4 regular season. The Patriots made glue out of the Colts in the AFC championship game. Outlook: With Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison all healthy, the Colts have their attack in place. So while all the buzz centers around the Manning-led offense (the reigning MVP is the only quarterback who still calls most of his own plays), coach Tony Dungy is quietly rebuilding the defense. The unit allowed just 7.7 yards per game more than the vaunted Patriots defense last year, and Dungy--the brains behind Tampa Bay's 2002 championship D--is tinkering the right way, opting for coaching adjustments rather than gambling on free agents. Top draft pick Bob Sanders (University of Iowa) will provide help at safety. Crystal Ball: Indy will go far. But can Manning finally win the big game?

Tennessee Titans

Last Season: The Titans had a great run (12--4) behind a banner year for QB Steve McNair (24 passing TDs, four rushing TDs), but they came up three points short against New England in the playoffs. Outlook: Tennessee had a quiet off-season, adding little talent. McNair is now 31 and has been listed as "questionable" on game day an astounding 23 times during the past three seasons. Running back Eddie George is no longer the Eddie George of 1999 and 2000. The defense played well last year but will have to make up for the losses of defensive linemen Jevon Kearse and Robaire Smith. On top of that, the team plays the Colts, Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos in succession in December. That's going to hurt. Literally. Crystal Ball: The Titans will snag a wild-card berth.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Last Season: The Jags went 5--11, losing all eight of their road games. Outlook: This team has cleaned house since the Tom Coughlin era. The Jaguars' fortunes are now in the hands of talented but unproven second-year QB Byron Leftwich. Draftpick Reggie Williams, a receiver out of Washington, should give Leftwich a first-rate target, while bruiser Greg Jones bolsters the Fred Taylor-led running attack. The defense earned its pay last year, finishing sixth in yards allowed, but that goes only so far in adivision with the Colts and Titans. Coach Jack Del Rio will have his hands full integrating more than 10 free agents. Crystal Ball: The talent of Leftwich will give fans something to scream about, even as the Jags wallow in a mire of mediocrity.

Houston Texans

Last Season: They took the Pats into overtime in week 12, but that moment aside, the Texans (5--11) were one of the worst teams in the league on both sides of the ball. Outlook: Houston's first two games, against San Diego at home and Detroit on the road, are winnable, but all in all this team will be--how do you put it?--not good. The bright spot is at the skill positions: Quarterback David Carr, running back Domanick Davis and receiver Andre Johnson all have great potential. Six of the Texans' top seven draft picks are defensive players. That's saying something. We're not sure what, but we'll find out. Crystal Ball: Doesn't look good.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles

Last Season: For the second straight year Philly went 12--4 and lost at home in the NFC championship game. Outlook: Once again the Eagles were better on defense (17.9 points allowed, seventh in the NFL) than on offense (23.4, 11th). Will this year's D be as tough? The secondary losses of Troy Vincent and Bobby Taylor will hurt. New QB hunter Jevon Kearse could charge the pass rush as long as he stays healthy--he played in only 18 of the past 32 games in Tennessee. The bigger news in Philly is the arrival of receiver Terrell Owens. Yes, he's an egomaniac, but he's the game breaker Donovan McNabb has needed and will more than make up for the loss of running back Duce Staley. Crystal Ball: Thanks to two superstar signings (Owens, Kearse), the Eagles take this division again.

Dallas Cowboys

Last Season: Bill Parcells took over a team that was 5--11 in 2002 and went 10--6. The Dallas defense yielded the fewest yards per game (253.5) in the league. Outlook:The D should be stellar again. The offense? Well, at least this team now has what you can call a star in Keyshawn Johnson. He'll help on third-and-five--and in the interview room. Watching Parcells, who takes no shit, work with the receiver will be entertaining to say the least. And who will throw the ball to Keyshawn? The Cowboys' weak spot last year was at quarterback: Quincy Carter threw more interceptions (21) than TD passes (17). This season former Yankees farmhand and University of Michigan standout Drew Henson joins the team as a 24-year-old rookie. Will he get the nod over Carter? Will Parcells be slapping Keyshawn on the butt or in the face? Win or lose, America's team will be fun to watch. Crystal Ball: The Cowboys will make good use of a wild-card slot come January.

Washington Redskins

Last Season: After a 5--11 season, coach Steve Spurrier packed his bags. Outlook: Can Joe Gibbs come out of retirement and succeed in today's NFL as a 63-year-old head coach? If Dick Vermeil and Bill Parcell scan do it, why can't Gibbs? Washington added serious talent in the off-season. The offense should be much improved, with steady QB Mark Brunell) tossing to Pro Bowl receiver Laveranues Coles and newly acquired James Thrash. And former Broncos halfback Clinton Portis will certainly make a difference. The all-too-generous defense (23.3 points per game, 25th) adds rookie safety Sean Taylor to help make up for the loss of star corner Champ Bailey. The problem child is owner Daniel Snyder. The guy who hired Spurrier in the first place still runs the show. Will he stop meddling long enough to let Gibbs clean up the mess? Crystal Ball: The Skins will win a few for the Gibber and make a run at the playoffs

New York Giants

Last Season: Ugh. Touted as Super Bowl contenders, the Giants (4--12) finished tied for 30th in points and 29th in points allowed. Outlook: New coach Tom Coughlin is a Parcells-like disciplinarian--no shades, no beards, no platinum--who should turn things around quickly. But with more than 15 free-agent additions, the Giants may need time to establish a rhythm. Rookie QB Eli Manning will make for a great story even if he sucks Ryan Leaf-style. (Feeling the heat, Eli?) A healthy Jeremy Shockey and Kurt Warner will come in handy. Free agents Carlos Emmons, Barrett Green and Fred Robbins will bolster the defense. Crystal Ball: Coughlin will crack the whip, but this is a bitch of a division.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers

Last Season: Another good year in Green Bay (10--6) led to a heartbreaking three-point loss to the Eagles in the playoffs. Outlook: Forget Lombardi--these Packers win with offense, finishing second in the NFC in yards and points in 2003. The big hitters return. Running back Ahman Green (1,883 rushing yards) is a true weapon, and Brett Favre is Brett Favre. His 208 consecutive starts is an NFL record for QBs. Will the streak come to an end this year? The Pack's defense was plain cheesy in 2003, and at press time they'd signed just two free agents (safety Mark Roman from the Bengals and cornerback Chris Watson from the Lions) to try to remedy the situation. Their draft picks (notably cornerback Ahmad Carroll out of Arkansas) may take time to fit in. Crystal Ball: Given coach Mike Sherman's record, the Packers should take the division. But it won't be easy.

Chicago Bears

Last Season: Lucky for the Bears, Chicago loves its football--no matter how boring the offense gets. A 7--9 season pushed QB Kordell Stewart and coach Dick Jauron out of town. Outlook: A new head coach in Lovie Smith, a new starting QB in Rex Grossman and highly touted draft picks in defensive tackles Tommie Harris and Tank Johnson should sharpen this team's claws. The games to watch are the two against archrival Green Bay, which has taken 18 of the past 20 versus the Bears. A sweep of Green Bay would please Bears fans as much as a playoff berth would. It'll take clutch play from project Grossman, who should make Chicago fans forget about Shane Matthews. But will he bring back memories of Jim McMahon? Crystal Ball: Da Bears will slip past the Vikings for second place, but a coveted playoff spot will remain out of reach.

Minnesota Vikings

Last Season: The Vikings kicked off 2003 with six straight wins and then fell apart, winning only three more games all year. They saved their worst for last, falling to lowly Arizona in the final week and missing out on the playoffs as a result. Outlook: This club was the Chiefs of the NFC in 2003: a stellar offense (first in the league in yards) and a sieve-like defense. The Vikings figure to be equally explosive and inconsistent this year. QB Daunte Culpepper and receiver Randy Moss can make incredible plays, but Culpepper can't seem to win the big game, and Moss is a head case. As for the defense, free-agent safety Tyrone Carter should bring toughness to the secondary, and top draft pick Kenechi Udeze (USC) will be all over opposing quarterbacks. But the additions won't be enough to plug the leaks. Expect a lot of scoring at the Metrodome, on both ends of the field. Crystal Ball: The Vikes will struggle to break .500.

Detroit Lions

Last Season: The Lions improved to 5--11 under popular coach Steve Mariucci. Given this team's dearth of talent, that's saying something. Outlook: A draft-day bonanza, including touted wide receiver Roy Williams and linebacker Teddy Lehman, might bring relief. Snappy QB Joey Harrington will have talent to throw to in Williams, former Ram AzZahir Hakim and sophomore Charles Rogers (coming off a collarbone injury). Mariucci needs to get his Lions past the Thanksgiving game in decent shape because the late-season schedule could sink them: Indy, Green Bay and two games against Minnesota. Crystal Ball: Detroit sports fans will be counting the days until the Pistons' season starts.

AFC West

Denver Broncos

Last Season: After a strong regular season (10--6), Denver was humiliated by the Colts on wild-card weekend. Outlook: It was the kind of offense-for-defense trade that gets football geeks buzzing: The Broncos swapped super running back Clinton Portis for the Redskins' Champ Bailey, arguably the league's best cover guy. The team also added elite defenders in end Marco Coleman from Philadelphia, tackle Luther Elliss from Detroit and safety John Lynch from Tampa Bay. On paper, coach Mike Shanahan's defense rivals any in the NFL. Former 49er Garrison Hearst should help fill the void left by Portis, while QB Jake Plummer will lead the offense; the Broncos were 9'2 with him in the lineup last season, including decisive victories over Kansas City and Indianapolis. Crystal Ball: How good are the Broncos? Despite games at K.C. and Tennessee and at home against Indianapolis in the final three weeks of the season, they win this division.

Kansas City Chiefs

Last Season: The 9--0 start and 13--3 record overall jazzed the fans. But the Chiefs never had the look of a contender because the defense was as dreadful (29th in yards allowed) as the offense was dazzling (second in yards gained). Outlook: Expect more fireworks in Arrowhead. The only noteworthy additions to the defense are tackles Lional Dalton (formerly of the Redskins) and Junior Siavii, a second-round pick out of Oregon. Offensively, the Chiefs go to battle with the same impressive weaponry: Priest Holmes (an NFL-record 27 TDs in 2003), Trent Green (second in the league in passing yards), tight end Tony Gonzalez and special-teams star Dante Hall (five TD returns). Crystal Ball: The question is whether the Chiefs will score points as fast as they give them up. We see a wild card in this club's future, but we wouldn't bet the ranch on it.

Oakland Raiders

Last Season: A year after Bill Callahan took this team to the big game, Oakland limped to a 4--12 record. Outlook: New coach Norv Turner wasn't exactly the second coming of Don Shula in his seven years in Washington (49--59), and he inherits a team that was 30th out of 32 teams in yards allowed. The defense will benefit from three linemen from recent Super Bowl winners--Warren Sapp (Tampa Bay), Ted Washington and Bobby Hamilton (New England). Meanwhile, five different quarterbacks played for the Raiders last year. At press time, Rich Gannon (who's pushing 40) and Kerry Collins were to compete for the starting job. Offensive tackle Robert Gallery, the team's top draft pick, will be their Luca Brasi. Crystal Ball: Injuries will do this team in once again.

San Diego Chargers

Last Season: The new uniforms were gorgeous. Everything else was ugly. San Diego finished 4--12. Outlook: Maybe the Chargers should stay out of the QB biz. They drafted Ryan Leaf and passed on Michael Vick. Will Philip Rivers make them forget they traded Eli Manning to get him? Coach Marty Schottenheimer will choose between rookie Rivers, who was 12 years old the last time the coach won a playoff game, and Drew Brees. If they both suck, there's 41-year-old Doug Flutie. Aside from LaDainian Tomlinson (league-leading 2,370 total yards in 2003, second in NFL history), the Chargers have little to build around, and it won't help that they lost receiver David Boston to Miami. The defense? Please. Crystal Ball: San Diego will top last year's record, for whatever that's worth.

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals

Last Season: Under new coach Marvin Lewis, the Bengals made the big leap to respectability (8--8). Outlook: Here it is, football fans--our pick for this season's Cinderella team, this year's version of the 2003 Panthers. The Bengals made some no-guts, no-glory moves during the off-season, ditching QB John Kitna (3,591 yards, 26 TDs in 2003) in favor of former USC gunslinger Carson Palmer and sending veteran running back Corey Dillon packing as well. Rudi Johnson and rookie Chris Perry (Michigan) will spearhead the ground attack. After some growing pains early on, this talented offense should start to click. But the real difference this year will be on defense: The Bengals nabbed six highly regarded players on that side of the ball, including big-play cornerback Keiwan Ratliff. Coach Lewis, who built Baltimore's Super Bowl defense, knows how to coach these kids. Crystal Ball: With all that young talent, the Bengals will win a division title for the first time in 14 years.

Baltimore Ravens

Last Season: Led by Jamal Lewis, who turned out one of the greatest rushing seasons ever (2,066 yards), the Ravens finished 10-6 before losing to Tennessee in the wild-card game. Outlook: The most newsworthy addition to the Ravens? Former Giants coach Jim Fassel, who joins up as the offensive coordinator behind head man Brian Billick. Baltimore fans are hoping Fassel can jump-start the Kyle Boller-led air attack--only five teams had fewer TD passes last year. The bulk of the offensive line returns, good news for the running game. The question is whether Lewis can stay focused. The running back is facing federal drug charges involving a cocaine-dealing ring. Meanwhile, there's not much new to say about the Ray Lewis-led defense. It will be awesome as usual. Crystal Ball: In today's NFL, it's tough to continue winning without a top quarterback.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Last Season: This team ruled the field with one of the greatest rosters in history. Terry Bradshaw, Mean Joe Green--wait, that was 30 years ago. Bill Cowher's team fell short again (6--10). Outlook: Jerome Bettis is on the decline, but free-agent pickup Duce Staley should carry his weight in the backfield. Staley can catch passes underneath coverage, presenting a big problem for defenses, which will have their hands full with the NFL's top receiving corps (Plaxico Burress, Hines Ward, Antwaan Randle El). The question is, Who will throw them the ball? Incumbent Tommy Maddox will duke it out with top draft pick Ben Roethlisberger, who will be either the next Bradshaw or the next Mark Malone. Whoever takes the snaps had better put points on the board--the defense is mediocre at best. Crystal Ball: If one of the QBs steps up, the Steelers could surprise.

Cleveland Browns

Last Season: Another disappointing year in Cleveland (5--11). Outlook: The Browns gave up on their supposed QB of the future, Tim Couch, in favor of Jeff Garcia. The former 49er--who will benefit from the addition of rookie tight end Kellen Winslow Jr.--should improve an anemic offense (281.5 yards per game last season, 26th in the NFL). A couple of defensive additions could keep the games closer. Safety Sean Jones, a second-round pick, adds life to an uninspired secondary, and free-agent defensive end Ebenezer Ekuban will help stop the run--the Browns were 23rd last year in rushing yards allowed. Crystal Ball: The playoffs? No way. They'll have to shoot for respectability.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints

Last Season: An 8--8 finish, middle-of-the-road in almost every respect. Outlook: Football pontificators have talked up the Saints for years. This season the team will live up to the hype. The offense will be anchored once again by inimitable running back Deuce McAllister (1,641 yards in 2003), QB Aaron Brooks (24 TDs, eight interceptions) and receiver Joe Horn. They'll score plenty of points, and unlike last year, the defense will hold opposing teams at bay. Coach Jim Haslett, clearly on the hot seat, will count on two new defensive linemen to stop the rush: high-priced free agent Brian Young and first-round pick Will Smith (Ohio State). Crystal Ball: The Saints will win a division title for the first time since 1991.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last Season: The Bucs went from Super Bowl champs to a losing year (7--9). Outlook: Chucky's back, and he's upset. During the off-season Jon Gruden persuaded new general manager Bruce Allen to jettison at least 14 players and bring in around 20 new faces. Among the departed are trash-talking receiver Keyshawn Johnson and defensive tackle Warren Sapp, who will be replaced by Darrell Russell, formerly with the Redskins. Key veteran offensive producers Brad Johnson and fullback Mike Alstott return, but the team's best running back, Michael Pittman, is likely to be suspended for multiple games after pleading guilty to a felony count of endangerment. As always, though, if this team is going to win, it will win on defense. Crystal Ball: Gruden will yank his hair out trying to keep the Buccaneers in contention.

Carolina Panthers

Last Season: An 11--5 record is one thing, but Jake Delhomme throwing three TDs in the Super Bowl? Come on. OUTLOOK: No, you weren't dreaming--Carolina made it to the big game. But so did the 1998 Falcons. The good news: The Panthers didn't lose any key players. The bad news: They didn't add any to compensate for a tougher schedule. It remains to be seen if coach John Fox will let QB Delhomme carry more of the load or continue to have him hand the ball to Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster. Is this team for real? Even the NFL doesn't believe in the Panthers--they'll appear on Monday Night Football only once, while the Eagles, Cowboys, Rams and Packers will get the spotlight three times each. Crystal Ball: Delhomme may be going to Disney World in February, but he'll have to pay for the ticket himself.

Atlanta Falcons

Last Season: Eleven losses and one busted Michael Vick fibula made for a chilly winter in Atlanta. Outlook: The Falcons have a new coach (Jim Mora Jr.) and a new GM (Rich McKay), but not much else has changed. Perhaps more than any other team, Atlanta is a one-trick pony. Sure, there's talent: T.J. Duckett, Warrick Dunn, Peerless Price. But if Vick doesn't shine, this team won't win. And it remains to be seen whether he can stay in the pocket--and stay healthy. Coach Mora, the former 49ers defensive wizard, has his work cut out with this defense. The pathetic corps gave up 381.8 yards a game last year. Crystal Ball: Vick can leap over tall buildings, but he'll need more than that to move the Falcons up in this division.

Playboy's Picks

American Football Conference

AFC East

New England

AFC North

Cincinnati

AFC South

Indianapolis

AFC West

Denver

Wild Cards

Teneessee, Kansas City

AFC Championship Game

New England over Indianapolis

National Football Conference

NFC East

Philadelphia

NFC North

Green Bay

NFC South

New Orleans

NFC West

Seattle

Wild Cards

St. Louis, Dallas

NFC Championship Game

Seattle Over Dallas

* Super Bowl *

New England over Seattle

The Numbers Game

Some Football stats you won't find in the dallies this season

$3.75 Price of a 16-ounce beer at Pittsburgh's Heinz Held, the cheapest at any NFL stadium.

$75.33 Average ticket price at New England's Gillette Stadium, the most expensive in the NFL

61% Percentage of 1,488 retired NFL players in a recent study who reported suffering one or more concussions during their careers.

12% Percentage who reported suffering five or more concussions.

$230,000 Minimum NFL salary for players with less than one year of experience.

$34.5 million Signing bonus given to Colts quarterback Peyton Manning, the NFL's highest-paid player.

$200,000 Amount the NFL fined Lions general manager Matt Millen for not interviewing minority candidates before hiring coach Steve Mariucci.

$0 Amount the NFL fined Millen for calling Chiefs receiver Johnnie Morton a faggot.

160 Weight in pounds of Ravens kick returner Lamont Brightful, the lightest player in the league.

390 Weight in pounds of Bears offensive lineman Aaron Gibson, the heaviest player.

80,499 Average attendance in 2003 for Redskins home games, the highest in the league (fans pictured, left).

36,062 Average attendance in 2003 for Cardinals home games, the lowest.

43 Age of Chiefs kicker Morten Andersen, the league's oldest player.

40 Age of Buccaneers coach on Gruden, the league's youngest head coach.

$952 million Estimated value of owner Daniel Snyder's Redskins, the highest of any NFL franchise.

$21 billion Net worth of Seahawks owner Paul Allen.

6 to 1 Preseason odds on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl, the best of any team, as handicapped by USA Today sports betting expert Danny Sheridan.

1 trillion to 1 Preseason odds on the Cardinals to win the Super Bowl, the worst of any team.

Word Play

Ever listen to NFL Players talk about the game off camera? They sound as though they're speaking Portuguese. Here's a short glossary of terms

Bad Mood A player with a mean streak. The Ravens' Ray Lewis comes to mind.

Big Bubble A lineman with big buttocks and thick thighs. Usually meant as a compliment in the NFL. Example: Rams offensive tackle Orlando Pace.

Bird Dogger A quarterback who locks onto one receiver throughout his pattern. Even the beer vendor outside the stadium knows where the pass will be thrown. Chad Pennington was criticized for this in his first few starts, back when Laveranues Coles was a let.

Cover 2 Zone coverage in which each safety is responsible for half the deep part of the field.

Dime A defense on passing downs--usually on second-and-long or third-and-long--that lines up with six defensive backs.

Edge Pass Rusher A defensive end or linebacker who has the speed to come from the outside and sack a quarterback. Lawrence Taylor was the quintessential edge pass rusher.

Extra Baggage A guy with problems off the field. Example: Ravens running back Jamal Lewis, who was charged in February with conspiring to possess with the intent to distribute five kilos of cocaine.

Getting Through Trash When a defensive lineman or linebacker moves well around pileups to reach the quarterback or ball carrier.

Home Run Hitter An explosive running back, receiver or return specialist who can break long touchdowns. Example: Kansas City's Dante Hall.

Long Strider A fast receiver who takes long steps. Generally, he prefers deep patterns to short ones with quick cuts or hooks.

Nickel A defense on passing downs that lines up with five defensive backs. First used by George Allen's Redskins in the 1970s.

Rag-Dolling When an offensive lineman is tossed aside by a stronger defensive lineman or linebacker, as in "The Colts' front line got ragdolled all day long."

Sam, Mike and Will The linebackers by position, as in strong side (Sam), middle (Mike) and weak side (Will). A center might say before a snap, "I'm on Mike. Who's got Will?"

Slow Blinker A player who is short in the brains department.

Playboy's All-pro Team

nfl.com senior analyst and Playboy Contributor Gil Brandt picks the best for 2004

Offense

Quarterback: Peyton Manning, Colts

Halfback: Clinton Portis, Redskins

Fullback: Fred Beasley, 49ers

Wide Receiver: Randy Moss, Vikings

Tight End: Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs

Jonathan Ogden, Ravens

Tackle: Orlando Pace, Rams

Guard: Alan Faneca, Steelers

Center: Olin Kreutz, Bears

Punter: Shane Lechler, Raiders

Kicker: Adam Vinatieri, Patriots

Kick Returner: Dante Hall, Chiefs

Defense

Tackle: Kris Jenkins, Panthers

Tackle: La'Roi Glover, Cowboys

End: Shaun Ellis, Jets

End: Richard Seymour, Patriots

Linebacker: Ray Lewis, Ravens

Linebacker: Keith Bulluck, Titans

Linebacker: Takeo Spikes, Bills

Cornerback: Champ Bailey, Broncos

Cornerback: Patrick Surtain, Dolphins

Safety: Brian Dawkins, Eagles

Safety: Rodney Harrison, Patriots

Most Underrated: Tedy Bruschi, Patriots

MVP: Peyton Manning

At Destiny's Door