Playboy's 2004 Pigskin Preview

The Bowl Championship System has never worked. It has always tripped over its formula for determining a national champion, but last season it fell flat on its face. It couldn't match up USC and LSU, clearly the nation's two best teams, in the game every fan wanted to see. Instead, LSU played Oklahoma--which Kansas State had clobbered for the Big 12 title--in a pseudo national championship at the Sugar Bowl, while USC faced twice-beaten Michigan in the Rose Bowl.

The BCS's most glaring failure to date may finally have convinced the NCAA, that a change was needed. Beginning in 2006 a fifth game will be added to the current four-game format. The Rose, Fiesta, Orange and Sugar bowls will continue to host marquee games, but one of them, on a rotating basis, will hold a second game for the national title about a week after the first four. This will allow the BCS to keep the big money out of the hands of pretenders, such as the Gator and Cotton bowls, but the method for choosing the two teams playing for the title will still be determined by a formula rather than on the gridiron. Although the BCS will rely less on computer rankings and put more emphasis on the AP media poll and the USA Today/ESPN coaches poll, no computer formula will ever be as satisfying as a true playoff system.

While the method for determining a national champion is badly in need of a makeover, change of another kind threatens to hurt the sport. Ohio State's Maurice Clarett and USC's Mike Williams tried to go pro even though they failed to meet NFL draft standards. They were subsequently denied entry into April's draft, but if the courts overturn the NFL's position, college football will face the same mess that college basketball is living through. And the game will suffer.

Our top-20 list has a lot of familiar names, but don't be surprised if this season, like last, concludes without a clear national champ--which will disturb everyone except, presumably, the NCAA.

•

1. USC Last season: The Trojans were 12--1 and shared the national championship with LSU.

This season: Thanks to fourth-year coach Pete Carroll's stellar recruiting, tradition-rich USC is back as one of college football's perennial powerhouses. Quarterback Matt Leinart will put up Heisman-worthy numbers, the tailback trio of Hershel Dennis, LenDale White and Reggie Bush is dynamite, tackle Shaun Cody and linebacker Matt Grootegoed lead a dominant defense, and the kicking game is one of the best in the nation.

Weaknesses: The team doesn't have many, but a lack of experience on the offensive line could force Leinart out of the pocket more than he'd like.

Schedule: Ideal. USC gets Washington at home and doesn't play Oregon.

Prediction: 11--1.

2. LSU Last season: 13--1, including a 21--14 win over Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl, the BCS title game last year.

This season: Coach Nick Saban is firing on all cylinders in Baton Rouge. He has 13 starters back from last year's co-national championship team, redshirts ready to make their mark and a consensus number-two recruiting class that includes four Parade All-Americans. Quarterback Matt Mauck overestimated his pro stock and left early for the NFL, only to wait seven rounds to be drafted. Marcus Randall is the only roster player with experience at the position, but two talented freshmen (Matt Flynn and JaMarcus Russell) are itching for their chance. There's a ton of talent everywhere else. The defense, led by Marcus Spears and Corey Webster, is especially strong.

Weaknesses: No proven quarterback.

Schedule: LSU won't likely run the table against Auburn, Georgia, Florida and Arkansas, all road games.

Prediction: 10--1

3. Georgia Last season: 11--3. The Bulldogs beat Purdue (34--27) in overtime in the Capital One Bowl.

This season: Georgia can make a run at the national title. Coach Mark Richt has the luxury of two good quarterbacks. David Greene, the 2002 SEC Offensive Player of the Year, returns for his final season, and junior D.J. Shockley is a more than adequate backup. The Bulldogs return their entire offensive line--including six-foot-four, 348-pound tackle Max Jean-Gilles--along with standout receivers Reggie Brown and Fred Gibson. The defense should be even better than last season's, anchored by end David Pollack (23.5 career sacks), who surprised some by staying in school. The other end spot will be filled by Will Thompson, who returns after missing all of last season with a leg injury. Thompson had an impressive five tackles and two sacks in Georgia's Sugar Bowl win two years ago.

Weaknesses: Not many, but an inexperienced secondary could be vulnerable.

Schedule: Sets up nicely for a championship run. LSU, Tennessee and Georgia Tech all come to Athens.

Prediction: 10--1

4. Texas Last season: 10--3. Another double-digit-win season for Mack Brown and the Longhorns, but they again failed to beat Oklahoma and finished with a loss to Washington State (28--20) in the Holiday Bowl.

This season: Coach Brown has had good quarterbacks during his Texas tenure but none good enough to lead the Longhorns to a national championship. Freshman QB Vince Young took the reins from Chance Mock midway through last season and guided the team to a 6--1 finish. Young is athletic, strong and improving, but he can still be wild with his passes. Running back Cedric Benson, perhaps the best rusher in the nation, did Brown a favor by staying for his senior season. Two-time Playboy All America linebacker Derrick Johnson leads the defense.

Weaknesses: It's hard to find one, but until Texas beats Oklahoma and finishes strong, doubters will exist.

Schedule: Favorable for a run at the national title--except for that troublesome face-off with the Sooners in Dallas on October 9.

Prediction: 10--1

5. Florida State Last season: 10--3. The Seminoles ended the year on a sour note, losing 16--14 to rival Miami in a rematch. It was another case of wide right--kicker Xavier Beitia missed the go-ahead field goal with 5:30 to play.

This season: Chris Rix returns for his fourth year as starting quarterback. If he can reduce the mental errors that have plagued him, FSU will be tough to beat. The offensive line, led by Alex Barron, is loaded. Craphonso Thorpe, coming back from a broken leg, will be one of the nation's best receivers. Watch out for tailback Lorenzo Booker, who has graceful moves and blazing speed.

Weaknesses: Only four starters return on defense, and there's little depth behind Rix at quarterback.

Schedule: One of the best games of the season will be one of the first: Florida State at Miami on September 6. The Noles catch a break: Clemson, Virginia and Florida are all home games.

Prediction: 9--2

6. Miami Last season: 11--2. The Canes nipped Florida State 16--14 in the Orange Bowl.

This season: Miami is now in the ACC, which provides new opponents and new challenges for a team that has dominated the Big East for the past several years. Senior quarterback Brock Berlin returns and will be backed up by Derrick Crudup and six-foot-five redshirt freshman Kyle Wright. Berlin has to throw fewer interceptions to keep his job.

Weaknesses: Running back Frank Gore's knees--he's missed most of the past two seasons with injuries. With the losses of all three starting linebackers and three of four defensive backs, the defense may be (continued on page 134)Pigskin(continued from page 84) less aggressive, especially early in the year. Coach Larry Coker lost a couple of solid assistant coaches, which could shake things up.

Schedule: The season opener is against familiar foe Florida State, but the switch to the ACC will present new obstacles for the Canes, notably a road game at Virginia in November.

Prediction: 9--2

7. Oklahoma Last season: 12--2. The Sooners topped the polls for the first 15 weeks of the season and won the Big 12 South title before the bottom dropped out. A loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 championship game was followed by a loss to LSU in the Sugar Bowl with the national title at stake.

This season: Heisman Trophy--winning quarterback Jason White returns, which may be a mixed blessing. White is a capable signal caller but was far from the Sooners' best player. The team deserved as much credit for White's Heisman as White himself did. And while Oklahoma scored a school-record 601 points, the defense did most of the heavy lifting, constantly giving the ball to the offense in good field position. Wide receiver Mark Clayton will roll up huge numbers, and return man Antonio Perkins is a threat to score every time he touches the ball.

Weaknesses: You can't lose players like Tommie Harris and Teddy Lehman without a falloff. And late-season losses to Kansas State and LSU may have torn holes in Oklahoma's cloak of invincibility.

Schedule: Is this the year the Sooners lose to Texas? Other land mines: a trip to Kansas State in mid-October and a home game against Nebraska in November.

Prediction: 9--2

8. Michigan Last season: 10--3, a Big 10 tide and a 28--14 loss to USC in the Rose Bowl.

This season: The Wolverines caught a break when Braylon Edwards, Marlin Jackson and David Baas decided to stick around for their senior year. Edwards is a game breaker on offense, and Jackson is one of the nation's best defensive backs. Running back Chris Perry and quarterback John Navarre will be tough to replace. David Underwood could be Perry's successor, while Matt Gutierrez has the edge over Clayton Richard to be Navarre's replacement. As usual, both lines have plenty of muscle, though defensive tackle Jeremy Van Alstyne injured a knee in spring practice and is out for the season. Gabe Watson and Larry Harrison will try to pick up the slack. Coach Lloyd Carr, who is 86--26 in his 10 years in Ann Arbor, has a good but not great team to work with.

Weaknesses: Quarterback and running back. And the loss of Van Alstyne leaves a hole in the defensive line.

Schedule: It could be worse. Notre Dame is down, and Wisconsin and Penn State aren't on the schedule. Beware the late-October game at Purdue.

Prediction: 9--2

9. California Last season: 8--6. Cal capped its season with a shootout win over Virginia Tech in the Insight Bowl--the Bears' first bowl victory in 10 years.

This season: Cal appears to be second only to USC on the West Coast. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has NFL scouts drooling, and Reggie Robertson is a solid backup. Running back J.J. Arrington led the conference in yards per carry (5.7), and Geoff McArthur and Jonathan Makonnen are exceptional wide receivers. Coach Jeff Tedford's defense returns nine starters, including tackle Lorenzo Alexander and all-conference rover back Donnie McCleskey.

Weaknesses: The defense gave up 49 points in Cal's bowl-game win.

Schedule: You wouldn't want to start your season with four road games in the first five, especially when that fifth game is at USC. It gets easier after that. If USC stumbles, Cal will have a shot at the Pac-10 title.

Prediction: 9--2

10. Kansas State Last season: 11--4. The Wildcats beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game but couldn't get past Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl.

This season: Sophomore quarterback Dylan Meier is expected to replace three-year starter Ell Roberson. Often compared to former K. State quarterback Jonathan Beasley, Meier has good targets to throw to, especially at tight end. But can he get them the ball? The passing game could be suspect, but the rushing game won't be. Don't be surprised to see running back Darren Sproles on the Heisman podium in December. The Wildcats' defense will be comparable to last year's unit, which finished sixth in the nation.

Weaknesses: If QB Meier fails to get the job done, coach Bill Snyder will have to turn to Indiana transfer Allen Webb or a freshman. A couple of the defensive backs are untested, but Snyder has always been able to fill holes with junior-college transfers.

Schedule: The nonconference schedule is cake, and the Wildcats leave the state of Kansas only three times (Texas A&M, Missouri and Colorado). The big tests are back-to-back games against Oklahoma and Nebraska in October.

Prediction: 9--2

11. Nebraska Last season: 10--3, which wasn't good enough for coach Frank Solich, who lost his job.

This season: Bill Callahan, who coached the Oakland Raiders for the past two years, brings a new look to Nebraska: Out with the option, in with the West Coast offense. The switch was made because Nebraska can no longer overpower opponents with its running game. Joe Dailey will be the first quarterback to benefit from the new pass-first philosophy. The offensive line, led by tackle Richie Incognito, is good enough to execute the blocking schemes, and tight end Matt Herian leads a talented corps of receivers. Now Dailey has to deliver. Defensively, the Huskers will once again be formidable, though holes have to be filled at linebacker.

Weaknesses: Success doesn't come easily to teams that adopt entirely new offensive philosophies.

Schedule: The big tests are road games at Kansas State and Oklahoma.

Prediction: 9--2

12. Florida Last season: 8--5. The Gators finished a respectable 6--2 in the SEC--including impressive wins over LSU and Georgia--but lost three nonconference games, including a 37--17 drubbing by Iowa in the Out back Bowl.

This season: If coach Ron Zook fails to win 10 games, he'll be out of a job. He has a lot of talent to work with. Quarterback Chris Leak, with a year of experience under his belt, could have a breakout season. Sophomore linebacker Channing Crowder, last year's SEC Defensive Freshman of the Year, is a big-time talent, and Zook can only hope he'll stay in school another season or two after this one. Travis Harris, who will switch from end to linebacker, may prove to be Florida's most improved defensive player.

Weaknesses: The Gators are notoriously inconsistent.

Schedule: The nonconference schedule is a breeze, but Iowa gets all the Big 10 bad boys this time around.

Prediction: 8--3

18. Texas Tech Last season: 8--5, including a 38--14 win over Navy in the Houston Bowl.

This season: Yet another team looking for a quarterback. Senior Sonny Cumbie is the heir apparent to graduated B.J. Symons but could get a challenge from junior-college transfer Robert Johnson. Whoever takes the snaps will get good protection: Left tackle Daniel Loper is a 329-pound brick wall who last season helped shut down Tommie Harris and the vaunted Oklahoma defensive line, which had no sacks. Out of the backfield, Taurean Henderson is a threat running and receiving (78 receptions last year). The defense, which labored at times last season, should be improved. Adell Duckett led the conference in sacks (14) and tackles for losses (24.5). Free safety Vincent Meeks, who already has seven career interceptions, has been timed in the 40 at 4.19 seconds.

Weaknesses: The absence of an experienced quarterback.

Schedule: October will be scary, with games against Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas and Kansas State.

Prediction: 8--3

19. Maryland Last season: 10--3. With 31 wins in the past three years, the Terps are fast becoming a football power.

This season: Sophomore quarterback Joel Statham is still a work in progress, so coach Ralph Friedgen will emphasize the running game. And whoever carries the ball would be smart to run behind massive guard C.J. Brooks, who is already good enough to play on Sundays. The defense needs to step up against high-powered offenses such as Florida State's. The Noles always pile on the points against the Terps.

Weaknesses: They seem to lack confidence on defense in big games and could use more speed in the secondary.

Schedule: No Miami, and Florida State travels to College Park. The relatively easy early schedule could get Maryland rolling.

Prediction: 8--3

20. Texas Christian Last season: 11--2. TCU lost a shoot-out (34--31) to Boise State in the Fort Worth Bowl.

This season: Conference USA teams typically don't get much respect, but the Horned Frogs defeated nearly everyone they played last year and have excellent players returning, including quarterback Tye Gunn, defensive tackle Brandon Johnson and safety Marvin Godbolt. If Gunn gets injured, senior Brandon Hassell, who is 7--2 in his career as a starter, will be ready to step in. Coach Gary Patterson's multiple offensive formations are a headache for opposing coaches.

Weaknesses: TCU may have trouble with good rushing teams because of holes on the defensive line. The secondary also has questions, but new defensive coordinator Dick Bumpas thinks he has the answers.

Schedule: A little tougher than last year's, with games against Texas Tech and Northwestern, both bowl teams last season.

Prediction: 8--3

And five to watch:

Virginia Tech Last season: 8--5. The Hokies lost to California (52--49) in the Insight Bowl.

This season: Coach Frank Beamer has two talented quarterbacks: Bryan Randall and Marcus Vick, brother of the Atlanta Falcons' Michael. It's nice to have a backup, particularly when Vick's eligibility is in doubt. Vick and two other Hokies got into trouble for some late-night partying with girls who turned out to be underage, and he could be out of favor with his coach. Randall is a seasoned passer with athletic ability and a good grasp of Beamer's offense.

Weaknesses: The offensive line and the secondary are of particular concern.

Schedule: Not bad once the Hokies get past the opener with USC in Washington, D.C. Maryland, North Carolina State and Virginia all have to come to Blacksburg, and Florida State isn't on the schedule.

Prediction: 8--4

Washington State Last season: 10--3, including a 28--20 win over Texas in the Holiday Bowl.

This season: Second-year coach Bill Doba has a rebuilding project on his hands. The offense returns four starters, the defense only two. Redshirt sophomore Josh Swogger and redshirt junior Chris Hurd will battle for the quarterback job. At six-foot-five and 238 pounds, Swogger has the physical tools to succeed, but can he make good decisions on the field? Bright spots on offense include the line, led by Calvin Armstrong and Sam Light-body, and running back, where Chris Bruhn will excel. Will Derting, who switched from outside to middle linebacker, is an undersized but ferocious tackler reminiscent of Zach Thomas.

Weaknesses: Doba has a lot of talent, but the influx of new players will inevitably result in multiple miscues.

Schedule: Easier than last year's, with Oregon, USC and Washington all traveling to Pullman.

Prediction: 7--4

Missouri Last season: 8--5. The Tigers finished with a 27--14 loss to Arkansas in the Independence Bowl.

This season: Missouri loses seven starters on offense, but Brad Smith, one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the nation, is back for his junior year--and he generates quite a bit of offense by himself. Coach Gary Pinkel will opt for more two-back sets, meaning power running should be an even bigger feature of this team's attack. Nine starters return on a deeper defense. For the first time in a while, Missouri thinks its talent approaches that of Kansas State and Nebraska.

Weaknesses: An inexperienced offensive line could have quarterback Smith scrambling for his life instead of for touchdowns. If Smith were to go down with an injury, much of the spirit would be taken out of the offense.

Schedule: The Tigers should win their first five games. Then the going gets tougher, with games at Texas and Nebraska and a critical home date against Kansas State.

Prediction: 7--4

Toledo Last season: 8--4 behind a standout year from quarterback Bruce Gradkowski.

This season: The Rockets' passing game will be awesome. Gradkowski, a junior, is back after finishing second in the nation last season in completion percentage (71.2). He had 29 touchdown passes and only seven interceptions. Also returning is wide receiver Lance Moore, who topped the nation last year in receptions with 103 (1,194 yards). The offensive line returns some heavy hitters, including tackle Nick Kaczur, who looks to become a four-time All-MAC player.

Weaknesses: An ineffective defensive line lost all four starters. Maybe that's a good thing. There's decent talent at linebacker and in the secondary, but opposing offenses too often will have a first down by the time tacklers get to them.

Schedule: The toughest game is probably the opener at Minnesota.

Prediction: 8--3

Utah Last season: 10--2.

This season: The Utes are one of the best-kept secrets in the country. Coach Urban Meyer coaxed 10 wins out of his team last year and returns an excellent signal caller in junior Alex Smith, good wide receivers and probably the best defense in the Mountain West Conference.

Weaknesses: There's no depth behind quarterback Smith, and with the graduation of Brandon Warfield, the team is without an established running back. A lack of offensive firepower could mean the defense will be on the field too much.

Schedule: The conference sets up nicely--most of the MWC powerhouses come to Salt Lake.

Prediction: 8--3

Who will take the national title? Here are our picks for the best college football teams and players

Top 20

Teams for 2004

1. USC

2. LSU

3. Georgia

4. Texas

5. Florida State

6. Miami

7. Oklahoma

8. Michigan

9. California

10. Kansas State

11. Nebraska

12. Florida

13. Minnesota

14. Ohio State

15. Virginia

16. Tennessee

17. Iowa

18. Texas Tech

19. Maryland

20. Tcu

Nick Saban The Louisiana State head coach tells us what it's like to be the champ

[Q] Playboy: Be honest, Coach. Wouldn't you like to have played one more game and taken on USC for all the marbles?

[A] Saban: It was great for USC to play at home and for us to play the Sugar Bowl in our home state, so it worked out well for both of us. But it's always difficult to see the season end when you have a special team. There was a little unfinished business, and maybe we would have liked to play one more game against somebody.

[Q] Playboy: Is Marcus Randall your starting quarterback?

[A] Saban: He's the guy to beat. He has the game-management experience, and I think he's ready to make the right decisions out there.

[Q] Playboy: Your defense was awesome last year. You held Oklahoma to 154 yards of offense in the Sugar Bowl. Can you be that good this year?

[A] Saban: We lost some important players up front. But we have a couple of good ones returning there, a couple of good linebackers, some solid guys in the secondary. I think our players believe they can be as good as last year's team. Now they have to go out and do it.

[Q] Playboy: Your schedule sets up well this year, with seven home games. But you have back-to-back games against Georgia and Florida. You beat the Bulldogs twice last year. Do you have their number?

[A] Saban: That was last year. This year is an entirely new deal. Georgia has a very good team. I think they'll be a challenge for us. Florida is always tough to beat. Don't forget that we also have Auburn on the road. That's three tough road games for us fairly early in the season.

[Q] Playboy: We've seen players challenge the NFL rule that they must be out of high school for three years to be draft eligible. Is that a good rule?

[A] Saban: I believe in the value of education. History shows that players do better in the NFL if they've had a chance to mature and improve their skills in college. Players help their chances of getting drafted by staying in school. If a player is assured of being a first-round pick, it may make sense to leave early, but you can't overestimate the value of education.

[Q] Playboy: Recruiting is also an issue. Is there too much pressure on coaches? Is recruiting out of control? Do we need more rules?

[A] Saban: I don't think so. We need to adhere to the rules we have. None of the excesses reported elsewhere have been a problem at LSU. We don't try to seduce players to come here. We tell them what the program is and introduce them to the people they'll work with. Gary Bamett is a class guy and a professional coach. I don't think he's personally responsible for what happened at Colorado. All we can do is set up the right culture to avoid these sorts of problems.

[Q] Playboy: Your name came up for several NFL openings. Can your ambitions as a coach be satisfied at the collegiate level?

[A] Saban: I get a lot of gratification from watching 18- and 19-year-old kids develop. The environment for raising a family is great in a college town. We have great fans. They have so much passion for football. As long as we're committed to having success as a program, I'm happy at LSU. I'm not saying there won't be better opportunities out there, but I really like it at LSU.

If Florida coach Ron Zook fails to win 10 games this year, he'll be out of a job.

Brains and Brawn

Each year we select one extra player to be part of Playboy's preseason All America team. The choice is based on a combination of athletic and academic performance. Nominated by their universities, candidates must have a minimum GPA of 3.0 and start on their team. The winner is invited to attend Playboy's All America Weekend, and Playboy contributes $5,000 to the general scholarship fund of the winner's school.

Morgan Scalley of the University of Utah is this year's Anson Mount Scholar/Athlete. Scalley, a second-team Mountain West selection last season, plays free safety and returns kicks for the Utes. A mass-communications major with a minor in German. Scalley has a 3.96 GPA, following a perfect 4.0 last year.

Playboy has been selecting-preseason All America football players for 47 years. Most of the time we get it right, but sometimes we miss a player, someone we later realize should have been a Playboy All American. We did so a few years ago with Pat Tillman, who played for Arizona State. Then again, we don't have a category for heart or courage. Without fanfare, without talk-show appearances, Tillman gave up a career in the NFL and took his hard-hitting mentality and love of country to the Army Rangers. He didn't have to go to Iraq and then to Afghanistan, where he made the ultimate sacrifice for his country. Thanks, Pat, for helping us understand what a real All American is.

Playboy's 2004 All America Team

Offense Defense