Playboy's NFL 2005 Preview

An old friend has returned to the National Football League after an absence of a few seasons. Welcome back, franchise quarterback. The Tom Bradys, Peyton Mannings and Donovan McNabbs are again ruling the gridiron. For years the franchise quarterback was predominant in the league. The first 10 Super Bowl-winning teams and 17 of the first 24 were led by future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. If you had a Terry Bradshaw or a Joe Montana in your huddle, you had a stadium full of frenzied fans and a distinct advantage come January. It was more of the same in the 1990s, when future Hall of Famers John Elway, Steve Young, Troy Aikman and Brett Favre combined to win seven consecutive titles.

But the introduction of the salary cap in 1994 changed the way the game was coached and played. With a ceiling on the amount of money to spend, the top teams couldn't afford to keep all their best players, and weakened supporting casts affected even the best passers as the NFL chugged toward 2000. Suddenly, having a great quarterback wasn't a prerequisite for winning a championship. Stout defenses and power running games became alternative formulas for success, and journeymen QBs such as Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson ended up wearing chunky diamond-studded rings.

Then along came Tom Brady, who won his first Super Bowl in 2001. His transformation from no-name to Nike spokesman triggered a chain reaction in the league. Success breeds swagger, and that's what fans want to see. So the NFL invited the rest of the game's premier passers back onto center stage before the beginning of last season with an officiating crackdown on the defense. No longer would defenders be able to jostle with receivers beyond five yards of the line of scrimmage. The league wanted to make the game more entertaining for its millions of television viewers, and allowing pass catchers to gallop unfettered through the secondary did just that. If you let talented receivers run uncontested routes, the advantage shifts dramatically to the passers--and that means high-scoring games.

Collectively NFL quarterbacks set records for completion percentage (59.8) and touchdown passes (732) last season. Obviously, the better your quarterback, the better your chances of winning, and the very best--the franchise quarterbacks--excelled. Manning broke a 20-year-old NFL record with his 49 TD passes, and his Colts won the AFC South. Daunte Culpepper threw for an NFL-high 4,717 yards to propel his Vikings into the postseason. Brady matched his career best with 28 touchdown passes for the Super Bowl-champion Patriots, and McNabb passed for a career-high 3,875 yards for the NFC-champion Eagles.

"The two dominant teams in our league, New England and Philadelphia, have something in common," Giants coach Tom Coughlin says. "They have the outstanding quarterback. There are always changes--players in and out and injuries. But those guys line up and play, and the rest is history."

And so the quest for the next great quarterback begins. Three passers were chosen in the first round of April's draft, and two of them--the 49ers' Alex Smith and the Redskins' Jason Campbell--figure to start at some point this season, just as rookies Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger did last year. Carson Palmer was the first overall pick in 2003 and now starts in Cincinnati. David Carr was taken first overall in 2002 and starts in Houston. Mike Vick was first overall in 2001 and starts in Atlanta. Kyle Boller (Baltimore), Rex Grossman (Chicago), Joey Harrington (Detroit), Byron Leftwich (Jacksonville), J.P. Losman (Buffalo) and Chad Pennington (Jets) were all first-round picks this decade, and all now start.

While the salary cap has made the NFL a young man's game, the rules have again made it a quarterback's game. And when franchise quarterbacks emerge, championships follow. If Brady can win a Super Bowl at the age of 24, don't rule out Roethlisberger at 23, Palmer at 26 or even Eli Manning at 25. One of these young QBs might have a date with destiny on February 5, when Super Bowl XL kicks off in Detroit.

Projection: The Super Bowl will be played in Detroit next February. No team has ever played a Super Bowl on its home field. None will in 2006.

Our team-by-team guide to this season's winners and losers, listed in projected order of finish

AFC East

New England Patriots

Taking the Snaps: Tom Brady has already won three Super Bowls, and he's only 28. Joe Montana was 32 when he won his third, Terry Bradshaw 30.

Off-Season Shuffle: Six players started in all three New England Super Bowl wins; three won't be back: linebacker Roman Phifer (released), guard Joe Andruzzi (free agency) and linebacker Tedy Bruschi (heart ailment). The Pats won a Super Bowl last year without injured cornerback Ty Law, so they let him go as well. More significant may be the losses to the coaching staff. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis left to become head coach at Notre Dame, and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel took the Browns' head job.

Prescription for Success: The three constants in this dynasty--quarterback, coach (Bill Belichick) and kicker (Adam Vinatieri)--form a trifecta that makes the Patriots as tough to beat in September as in January.

Projection: It's been four decades since an NFL team has won three straight titles (the 1965-1967 Packers). Look for the Patriots to go deep this year--and maybe all the way.

Buffalo Bills

Taking the Snaps: Drew Bledsoe steered the Bills to six consecutive victories down the stretch and nearly got them into the playoffs. His reward? The team cut him and turned the offense over to J.P. Losman, who has attempted five NFL passes.

Off-Season Shuffle: Along with Bledsoe, the Bills lost a couple of starting tackles--Jonas Jennings on offense and Pat Williams on defense. They hope to compensate with the additions of veteran blockers Bennie Anderson and Mike Gandy and second-year defensive tackle Tim Anderson.

Prescription for Success: The Bills have the NFL's best special teams, a defense that ranked second in the league last year and game breakers in halfback Willis McGahee and receiver Lee Evans. All coach Mike Mularkey is asking of Losman is what the Steelers asked of Ben Roethlisberger last year: Don't make mistakes to lose games.

Projection: If Losman doesn't beat himself with turnovers, opponents will have a tough time beating the Bills.

New York Jets

Taking the Snaps: Chad Pennington was the first Mid-American Conference quarterback to storm the NFL, paving the way for first-rounders Byron Leftwich and Ben Roethlisberger. Pennington won a passing title in 2002 but has had trouble staying healthy.

Off-Season Shuffle: Doug Brien missed two field goals at Pittsburgh in the playoffs, costing the Jets a trip to the AFC title game. So like a general still fighting the last war, management used a second-round draft pick on kicker Mike Nugent, Ohio State's all-time leading scorer. The Jets also swapped speed receivers with the Redskins, sending Santana Moss south and welcoming back Laveranues Coles to New York. But their key addition is offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger, who spent the past five years in Tennessee playing swami to Steve McNair.

Prescription for Success: If you have Curtis Martin, you run him until he drops. He's the Walter Payton of his era. Last year Martin, 31, became the oldest player in NFL history to win a rushing title. The Jets will also rely on the defensive front of John Abraham, Shaun Ellis and Dewayne Robertson.

Projection: It's tough to be optimistic playing in a division with the Patriots.

Miami Dolphins

Taking the Snaps: Miami had a choice with the second overall pick on draft day: Take a potential franchise quarterback in Aaron Rodgers or the best running back on the board in Ronnie Brown. The Dolphins took the runner, leaving shaky incumbent A.J. Feeley behind center. Gus Frerotte is already warming up in the bullpen.

Off-Season Shuffle: While former Dolphins coach Dave Wannstedt emphasized speed on defense, new coach Nick Saban likes size. So he overhauled that unit, bringing in free-agent linemen Kevin Carter and Vonnie Holliday, a couple of 290-pounders, and safety Tebucky Jones, who beefs up the secondary with his 220 pounds. Meanwhile the Ricky Williams saga continues.

Prescription for Success: A Bill Belichick disciple, Saban believes defense wins championships, so that's where he'll focus his attention for now. Brown will be a Rookie of the Year candidate with all the carries he'll be getting.

Projection: The Dolphins are the only team in this division without a potential franchise quarterback. That'll make it difficult for them to compete.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles

Taking the Snaps: Remember when Philadelphia fans booed the draft-day selection of Donovan McNabb? They wanted Ricky Williams. McNabb has since guided the Eagles to four straight NFC title games and a Super Bowl. Where would the Eagles be today had they picked Williams?

Off-Season Shuffle: Philly lost starting defensive end Derrick Burgess and guard Jermane Mayberry, but coach Andy Reid knows how to plan ahead. Two recent first-round picks, end Jerome McDougle and guard Shawn Andrews, move up in the queue, while a sharp class of rookies makes the deepest team in football even deeper.

Prescription for Success: Reid has the best set of coordinators in the league in Brad Childress (offense), Jim Johnson (defense) and John Harbaugh (special teams) and nine returning Pro Bowlers at his disposal. McNabb and Terrell Owens give the team clout on Madison Avenue. T.O. just has to quit whining--$16.6 million a year isn't enough?

Projection: How can you pick against the Eagles? From the owner down to the ball boys, this organization has no weakness. If everyone does his job, this team will continue to succeed.

New York Giants

Taking the Snaps: Coach Tom Coughlin was criticized last November when he benched Kurt Warner in favor of rookie Eli Manning with the team still in contention. Manning promptly lost his first six starts. By December, however, he had game, and New York fans knew they had a quarterback.

Off-Season Shuffle: The Giants needed to get Manning some help; starting wide receivers Amani Toomer and Ike Hilliard failed to catch a touchdown pass between them last season. So they signed free agent Plaxico Burress and expect speedy wideouts Jamaar Taylor and Tim Carter to assert themselves after injuries slowed their 2004 season. Linebacker Antonio Pierce, the Redskins' leading tackler last year, was brought in to strengthen the NFL's 28th-ranked run defense.

Prescription for Success: The faster Manning establishes himself, the faster the Giants will develop. Running back Tiki Barber brings talent to the attack. Tight end Jeremy Shockey and defensive end Michael Strahan must return to their 2003 Pro Bowl form.

Projection: Eli's brother Peyton went from a 3-13 rookie season to a 13-3 sophomore year. Look for Eli and the Giants to make the playoffs in 2005.

Dallas Cowboys

Taking the Snaps: Bill Parcells trotted out his former Jets quarterback Vinny Testaverde in 2004. He'll go with his former Patriots quarterback Drew Bledsoe in 2005. Who's next, Phil Simms?

Off-Season Shuffle: A munchkin defensive front was bullied last fall, so Parcells signed nose tackle Jason Ferguson, a 300-pounder he drafted while with the Jets in 1997, and then drafted pass rushers Demarcus Ware and Marcus Spears in the first round. Fan favorite Dexter Coakley, a diminutive (five-foot-10) Pro Bowl linebacker, was forced out. After two years it's official: Parcells is building the Cowboys in the image of his 1980s Giants. Bigger is better.

Prescription for Success: Leather-helmet football is the Parcells way--run the ball on offense, stop the run on defense. Expect youngsters Julius Jones and Marion Barber to get a lot of carries out of the backfield. Wide receivers Key-shawn Johnson and Terry Glenn are old enough to remember who shot J.R.

Projection: Parcells reached the Super Bowl in his fourth season with both the Giants and Patriots. He's entering his third year in Dallas. There's still work to be done.

Washington Redskins

Taking the Snaps: Joe Gibbs won three Super Bowls with three different quarterbacks in his first life as an NFL coach. He went through two more QBs (Mark Brunell and Patrick Ramsey) in the first season of his comeback, and he might turn over the offense to another this season: first-round draft pick Jason Campbell.

Off-Season Shuffle: The Redskins finished 30th in offense last year despite acquiring Pro Bowl running back Clinton Portis before the season. The quarterbacks were blamed, which is why Gibbs drafted a new one. The club's other first-round pick, cornerback Carlos Rogers, will square up against Terrell Owens and Plaxico Burress twice each this season.

Prescription for Success: Coordinator Gregg Williams fielded a top-three defense last season, so that side of the ball is in good hands. A playoff run hinges on the success of the offense.

Projection: Gibbs was a Hall of Fame coach in his first tour with the Redskins, but the salary cap has changed the game. This is not the NFL he remembers.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers

Taking the Snaps: The Steelers had been trying to fill the void left by Terry Bradshaw for more than two decades. They finally succeeded. Ben Roethlisberger won a rookie-record 13 consecutive starts and finished fifth in the league in passing efficiency. Terry who?

Off-Season Shuffle: Why mess with success? A bit of fine-tuning was all the team required. First-round draft pick Heath Miller fills Pittsburgh's biggest need, a pass-catching tight end. Guard Kendall Simmons and Pro Bowl nose tackle Casey Hampton return from knee injuries. The only major defection was wideout Plaxico Burress.

Prescription for Success: The formula that won championships for the Steelers in the 1970s has returned: a bruising offense and an intimidating defense. Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis pound the ball on the ground, and pass rushers Joey Porter and Aaron Smith lead a spirited, blitz-driven defensive scheme.

Projection: Circle September 25 on your calendar, the day the Steelers and Patriots face off in a rematch of the AFC title game. This year we're going with Pittsburgh.

Cincinnati Bengals

Taking the Snaps: Carson Palmer didn't play a down as a rookie in 2003, yet coach Marvin Lewis handed him the reins in 2004. He started slowly but finished with a flourish.

Off-Season Shuffle: Lewis was defensive coordinator for the 2000 Super Bowl-champion Ravens, one of the greatest defenses ever assembled. His 2004 Bengals finished 19th on defense, allowing 207 more points than those 2000 Ravens.

NFL Preview(continued from page 88) No surprise, then, that Cincinnati drafted pass rusher David Pollack in the first round and linebacker Odell Thurman in the second.

Prescription for Success: Running back Rudi Johnson gives the Bengals a steady ground game, and receiver Chad Johnson has quick-strike ability. But Palmer must reduce his interceptions. Only three quarterbacks threw more than his 18 a year ago.

Projection: Suddenly the Bengals look like a team with a plan.

Baltimore Ravens

Taking the Snaps: Kyle Boller has thrown as many interceptions (20) as touchdowns in his two seasons as the Ravens' starter.

Off-season shuffle: The Ravens have given Boller some weapons, signing Derrick Mason and drafting Mark Clayton in the first round. Mason was second in the NFL with 96 receptions for the Titans last season, and Clayton is Oklahoma's all-time leading receiver. Pro Bowl corner Samari Rolle arrives, but the defense lost end Marques Douglas, linebacker Ed Hartwell and corner Gary Baxter to free agency.

Prescription for success: Defense, defense, defense. That will never change in Baltimore. Bruising running back Jamal Lewis allows the team to control the clock and keep the defense fresh.

Projection: If Boller remains the third-best quarterback in the division, the Ravens will remain its third-best team.

Cleveland Browns

Taking the Snaps: New coach Romeo Crennel knows he can't turn this franchise around overnight, so he brought in veteran quarterback Trent Dilfer to get the Browns through this season.

Off-season Shuffle: Crennel, formerly the Patriots' defensive coordinator, brought free-agent guard Joe Andruzzi with him. This year's third-overall draft pick, receiver Braylon Edwards, will add instant offense. Cleveland lost four defensive linemen from a unit that ranked dead last against the run last season. That can only be a good thing.

Prescription for Success: The great Cleveland teams of the past all ran the ball. These Browns should be potent in the backfield as well, led by Lee Suggs and trade acquisition Reuben Droughns, a 1,240-yard rusher for Denver last year. But there's no quick fix for the defense.

Projection: It would be a long season even with Paul Brown as head coach.

NFC North

Minnesota Vikings

Taking the Snaps: Outside of Indianapolis, there may not be a more talented NFL quarterback than Daunte Culpepper. At 28 his best years should still be ahead of him.

Off-season Shuffle: Randy Moss, the game's most gifted player, is a Viking no longer. But Minnesota drafted a Moss clone in receiver Troy Williamson, who has 4.32 speed in the 40-yard dash and averaged 48 yards a touchdown at South Carolina. The Vikings also restocked on defense, adding five probable starters.

Prescription for Success: With Culpepper in command, the Vikings will score 400 points a season. But they can't allow 395 points as they did a year ago and expect to reach the Super Bowl.

Projection: Minnesota might prove to be a better team without Moss.

Green Bay Packers

Taking the Snaps: The Packers have a Hall of Famer on the field and a first-rounder on the sideline. When Brett Favre retires, Aaron Rodgers will be the man.

Off-Season Shuffle: Mike Sherman surrendered his general-manager powers, and the Packers coaxed Ted Thompson back from Seattle to make the personnel decisions. Favre mulled retirement but decided against it. Two of his Pro Bowl-caliber blockers, however, guards Marco Rivera and Mike Wahle, are gone.

Prescription for Success: Keep Favre healthy. He is one of the great iron men in sports, having started in 205 consecutive games--nearly 90 more than any other quarterback in history. The more he hands the ball to Pro Bowl tailback Ahman Green, the healthier he'll be.

Projection: Green Bay went 4--12 in 1991. Favre arrived in 1992, and the Packers haven't had a losing season since. This year will be a different story.

Detroit Lions

Taking the Snaps: No team has been as cursed at the quarterback position as the Lions, who've had one Pro Bowl passer since 1960. Detroit had great expectations for Joey Harrington, but he's been disappointing. Management brought in ancient Jeff Garcia as a safety net.

Off-season Shuffle: For the third year running the Lions drafted a receiver in the first round: Mike Williams, number 10 overall. In 2004 they took Roy Williams at seven, and in 2003 they nabbed Charles Rogers at two. They also plucked tight end Marcus Pollard from the Colts and safety Kenoy Kennedy from the Broncos.

Prescription for Success: It's now or never for Harrington. He has an elite receiver corps and a top young back in Kevin jones, fresh off a 1,100-yard rookie season. If Harrington can't generate points with this cast, it's curtains for him.

Chicago Bears

Taking the Snaps: Rex Grossman had three starts as a rookie in 2003 and three last year before blowing out his knee. Chicago still doesn't know if he's the next Jim McMahon or the next Jim Miller.

Off-season Shuffle: The Bears signed Pro Bowl wideout Muhsin Muhammad, who led the NFL with 1,405 receiving yards for Carolina last year. He gives Grossman a big target. First-round pick Cedric Benson, the sixth-leading rusher in NCAA history, fills a void in the backfield. The Bears also signed blockers Roberto Garza and Fred Miller to help their playmakers.

Prescription for Success: Benson has the size to run the ball and control the clock, while pass rusher Adewale Ogunleye, linebacker Brian Urlacher and safety Mike Brown anchor the best defense in the division.

Projection: A rookie runner teamed with an inexperienced passer is usually a formula for disaster. The Bears will go as far as their defense takes them.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts

Taking the Snaps: Like Dan Marino before him, Peyton Manning will retire from the NFL with most of its passing records. But will he too retire without a championship? He's the best quarterback from September through December.

Off-season Shuffle: Marino was a running game away from a Super Bowl. Manning is a defense away, and coach Tony Dungy is desperately trying to build one. The team has used high draft picks on pass rusher Dwight Freeney (2002), safety Bob Sanders (2004) and cornerback Marlin Jackson (2005). Five of the Colts' six draft picks in April were defensive players.

Prescription for Success: Indy produced one of the great offensive showings in NFL history last year. That explosiveness, led by Manning, Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley, remains. The question mark is its 29th-ranked defense.

Projection: Offense will continue to make the Colts one of the league's most entertaining teams. A trip to New England in November could define their season.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Taking the Snaps: Jaguars quarterback Byron Leftwich has gone 2--1 against Peyton Manning, including a couple of 300-yard passing games. But at 13--14 overall as a starter, he needs to be more consistent against everyone else.

Off-season Shuffle: The Jags need young talent to complement aging stars Fred Taylor and Jimmy Smith. The team's first-round pick, Matt Jones, is a six-foot-six, 242-pounder with 4.37 speed. Jones will convert to receiver from quarterback and is a big play waiting to happen. On defense the Jaguars signed a handful of free agents to bolster the attack.

Prescription for Success: John Henderson and Marcus Stroud form the NFL's best defensive-tackle tandem. Jacksonville also has a stout offensive line. If games are indeed won in the trenches, this team is equipped to go far.

Projection: When Leftwich becomes a Pro Bowler, the Jaguars will become a playoff team. Both could happen this year.

Houston Texans

Taking the Snaps: Championship dreams accompanied the selection of David Carr with the first draft pick in franchise history in 2002. But Carr still throws too many interceptions (42 in three seasons).

Off-season Shuffle: Although subpar on defense, the Texans released linebacker Jamie Sharper, their leading tackler, and cornerback Aaron Glenn, who was second in picks. To fill the gaps, they signed corner Phillip Buchanon and linebacker Morlon Greenwood and drafted Florida State nose tackle Travis Johnson.

Prescription for Success: Only six NFL teams featured a 3,000-yard passer, a 1,000-yard rusher and a 1,000-yard receiver last season. With Carr, halfback Domanick Davis and wide receiver Andre Johnson, Houston was one of them. The offense has to perform even better, though, and the defense has to generate a pass rush. The team posted a league-low 24 sacks in 2004.

Projection: Four years into their existence, the Texans should be competing for the playoffs. They aren't.

Tennessee Titans

Taking the Snaps: Steve McNair has won a passing title and taken Tennessee to a Super Bowl. He is what the Eli Mannings and Carson Palmers of the league aspire to be. But can he stay healthy?

Off-season Shuffle: The salary cap has made a mess of the Titans. In February they had to release their best receiver (Derrick Mason) and cornerback (Samari Rolle) to get under the $85.5 million cap. The other starting corner, Andre Dyson, left for Seattle via free agency. Cornerback Adam "Pac-Man" Jones and wide receivers Courtney Roby and Brandon Jones, all rookies, will be tested early.

Prescription for Success: Starters missed a staggering 105 games due to injury last season. By comparison Colts starters missed just 39 games. Coach Jeff Fisher will have his hands full: Twelve draft picks made the roster last season, and another 10 could make it this year.

Projection: Young teams struggle.

NFC South

Carolina Panthers

Taking the Snaps: Like fellow bayou QBs Terry Bradshaw and Bobby Hebert, Jake Delhomme has guts and ability.

Off-season Shuffle: Carolina revamped its secondary, drafting safety Thomas Davis in the first round and signing veterans Ken Lucas and Idrees Bashir via free agency. The addition of free agent Mike Wahle adds bulk to the offensive line, but the departure of Muhsin Muhammad cost Delhomme his security blanket.

Prescription for Success: Starters who missed games due to injury last year included Steve Smith (15 games), Stephen Davis (14 games) and Kris Jenkins (12 games)--the best receiver, runner and defensive lineman on the 2003 NFC championship team. Coach John Fox's goal: keep his top players on the field.

Projection: Two years ago, when healthy, the Panthers had the best team in the NFC. They're healthy again.

Atlanta Falcons

Taking the Snaps: The Falcons have the most exciting player in the game in Mike Vick. But as great scramblers John Elway and Steve Young learned, you must develop patience in the pocket to become a championship quarterback.

Off-season Shuffle: The NFL's best rushing attack, led by Vick, Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett, was offset in 2004 by one of the worst passing games. Vick needs a go-to guy, and the Falcons hope they found him in first-rounder Roddy White.

Prescription for Success: Let Mike Vick run. Let Mike Vick pass. Let Mike Vick do whatever he wants because he's magic in cleats. The Falcons are a speed team built to play on a carpet and will play 10 games in domes. If they turn every game into a track meet, few teams will be able to run with them.

Projection: Atlanta is better on paper than it was in 2004, but the schedule and division are both tougher.

New Orleans saints

Taking the Snaps: Aaron Brooks is a tease. He's had 400-yard passing and 100-yard rushing performances in five years as the Saints' starter but has too many three-interception games.

Off-season Shuffle: Brooks has been sacked 161 times over the past four seasons. Peyton Manning has been sacked 83 times in that stretch. So the Saints drafted a tackle in the first round (Jammal Brown) and signed a Pro Bowl guard (Jermane Mayberry). They also lured ball-hawk safety Dwight Smith from Tampa Bay.

Prescription for Success: The Saints need to play all year the way they did in winning their last four games of the season. With so much skill on offense--Deuce McAllister, Joe Horn, Donte' Stallworth, Brooks--they can win on a weekly basis if the defense clicks.

Projection: Playoff contenders win their home games. The Saints have had only one winning season at home since 1992.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Taking the Snaps: Offensive guru Jon Gruden has a right-handed (Brian Griese) and left-handed (Chris Simms) option but doesn't seem fond of either. The QB who will take Gruden back to the Super Bowl probably isn't on the roster yet.

Off-season Shuffle: Four more starters from the 2002 Super Bowl team departed, leaving just 12 of the 22 who helped win the franchise its only championship a mere 33 games ago. Key upgrades are free-agent tight end Anthony Becht and rookie running back Carnell "Cadillac" Williams.

Prescription for Success: Aerial football is what sold the Bucs on Gruden in 2002, but with suspect quarterbacking and the drafting of Williams, this team may resemble the Bucs of old--run the ball and try to win low-scoring games. That might be tough to do minus defensive stalwarts Warren Sapp and John Lynch. Tampa Bay has lost its identity.

Projection: The NFC South is a shark tank, and Gruden's team will get eaten (concluded on page 157)NFL Preview(continued from page 154) alive. Atlanta, Carolina and New Orleans are all playoff contenders.

AFC West

Oakland Raiders

Taking the Snaps: Kerry Collins, for now. And he's a good one for now. He threw for 21 TDs last year and should improve with Randy Moss on the flank.

Off-season Shuffle: Moss's arrival earned the Raiders a prime-time season opener against the Patriots. The game's best receiver has raised everyone's expectations. Oakland used its first two draft picks on corners, Fabian Washington and Stanford Routt. If they can cover Moss in practice, they can cover anyone on Sundays. Free agent LaMont Jordan upgrades the NFL's worst rushing attack.

Prescription for Success: In Jordan and Moss die Raiders have added the big back and downfield passing threat reminiscent of owner Al Davis's great teams. But the defense is still shaky--a problem in a division that features three of last season's top 10 offenses in Kansas City (first), Denver (fifth) and San Diego (10th). To win, this team has to survive shoot-outs.

Projection: Expect fireworks in Oakland--and a division title.

San Diego chargers

Taking the Snaps: The Chargers took Philip Rivers in the first round of the 2004 draft because they'd lost faith in Drew Brees. Then Brees had a career season, leading die team to an AFC West tide.

Off-season Shuffle: One of last season's youngest teams remains largely intact. Two first-round picks, linebacker Shawne Merriman and defensive tackle Luis Castillo, will bolster a defense that must square off against NFL rushing champ Curtis Martin, Corey Dillon, Priest Holmes, Edgerrin James, Tiki Barber and Clinton Portis.

Prescription for Success: Pro Bowl halfback LaDainian Tomlinson gives the Chargers a running attack, while Brees and Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates allow them to throw the ball. The missing element is a speed receiver to stretch defenses; the team hopes second-round pick Vincent Jackson will be the guy.

Projection: Will Marty Schottenheimer ever coach a Super Bowl team? He's building a roster with that type of talent.

Kansas City Chiefs

Taking the Snaps: Trent Green has posted back-to-back 4,000-yard passing seasons. He'll do it again this year.

Off-season Shuffle: The Chiefs were the only team to outgain the Colts last year, but their defense was even more inept than Indy's. So they went after playmakers, drafting linebacker Derrick Johnson, signing free-agent safety Sammy Knight and free-agent linebacker Kendrell Bell and trading for Pro Bowl corner-back Patrick Surtain.

Prescription for success: Green, running back Priest Holmes and tight end Tony Gonzalez rank among the NFL's best, and there is no better blocking front. Defense is another story. For K.C. to reverse its fortunes, the new additions will have to gel quickly.

Projection: Arrowhead Stadium gives the Chiefs one of the NFL's best home-field advantages. Too bad they can't play all 16 games there.

Denver Broncos

Taking the Snaps: Mike Shanahan was a coaching genius when John Elway was his quarterback. He's a mere mortal now that Jake Plummer is running the attack.

Off-season Shuffle: The Broncos acquired four defensive linemen from the Browns, including three of Cleveland's starters--odd considering the Browns were last in the NFL in run defense. More sensibly the Broncos answered Oakland's acquisition of Randy Moss by drafting cornerbacks with their first three picks.

Prescription for success: Manage Jake Plummer, who threw 12 of his 20 interceptions in the team's six losses last season. The Broncos, with a top-five rushing attack and defense, should be a Super Bowl contender, yet Shanahan hasn't won a playoff game since Elway retired. That's the difference a franchise quarterback makes.

Projection: Denver hosts Philly and New England in October. That hurts.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

Taking the Snaps: Arizona has had a different opening-week starter in each of the past three seasons. Former MVP Kurt Warner was brought in to compete with incumbent Josh McCown this year.

Off-season shuffle: Emmitt Smith, the NFL's all-time leading rusher, retired, but a more dangerous ball carrier arrives in second-round pick J.J. Arrington, the NCAA's only 2,000-yard rusher last year. He'll find wide-open spaces in coach Dennis Green's three-without offense. First-round draft pick Antrel Rolle and free agent Robert Griffith make the Cardinals more imposing in the secondary.

Prescription for Success: With Arrington and wide receivers Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, the weapons are in place for a productive offense regardless of who plays quarterback.

Projection: Two seasons ago San Diego won four games, Atlanta five games and Pittsburgh six. All finished first last year. Why can't the 6--10 Cardinals make the same leap in the NFL's weakest division?

Seattle Seahawks

Taking the Snaps: Matt Hasselbeck won't make Mike Holmgren forget Brett Favre, but he's been to a Pro Bowl and is capable of delivering a playoff berth.

Off-season Shuffle: The Seahawks lost their leading interceptor (cornerback Ken Lucas) and sacker (end Chike Okeafor), but they ranked 26th in defense, so what have they truly lost? Offsetting those departures were the signings of linebacker Jamie Sharper and cornerbacks Andre Dyson and Kelly Herndon.

Prescription for Success: The offense is potent with Hasselbeck and reigning NFC rushing champ Shaun Alexander. But to contend, this club has to cut down on the mistakes (Hasselbeck's 15 interceptions, Alexander's five fumbles, innumerable dropped passes by receivers Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson).

Projection: Seattle travels more miles each year to play games than any other team. Jet lag takes a toll.

St. Louis Rams

Taking the Snaps: Marc Bulger passed for 3,964 yards last year but only 21 touchdowns. He has Pro Bowl talent, yet the cast around him has grown old.

Off-season Shuffle: The Rams made the playoffs last year despite allowing 73 more points than they scored. Coach Mike Martz went to work on the defense, signing free-agent linebackers Chris Claiborne and Dexter Coakley and drafting three defensive backs. In the first round the Rams took offensive tackle Alex Barron in hopes he can reduce the absurd number of sacks Bulger suffered (41).

Prescription for Success: Once the Greatest Show on Turf, the Rams are now a carny act. Torry Holt remains an elite downfield weapon, but the more the Rams hand the ball to Steven Jackson, the better off they'll be. On the other side of the ball, a young secondary needs to mature in a hurry.

Projection: Until Martz improves the defense and special teams, the Rams can forget about any more Super Bowls.

San Francisco 49ers

Taking the Snaps: The 49ers were the worst team in the league last season, thanks to three former seventh-round quarterbacks. Little wonder the team claimed Utah QB Alex Smith with the first overall pick of April's draft.

Off-season Shuffle: Dick Nolan coached the 49ers for eight seasons (1968--1975) and won a couple of division titles. Now his son Mike takes the reins. But coming off a 2--14 season, the team needed to overhaul more than the coaching staff.

Prescription for Success: The roster isn't devoid of talent. Eric Johnson is a Pro Bowl--caliber tight end, and five former first-round draft picks dot the defensive depth chart. If the 49ers open the season with incumbent QB Tim Rattay as the starter, they will struggle. If they open with Smith, they'll struggle even more but may gain some footing for 2006.

Projection: Where's Joe Montana? Suit him up.

Playboy's Picks

American football conference

East New England

North Pittsburgh

South Indianapolis

West Oakland

Wild cards Cincinnati, Jacksonville

Champion Pittsburgh

National football conference

East Philadelphia

North Minnesota

South Carolina

West Arizona

Wildcards Atlanta, N.Y. Giants

Champion Philadelphia

*Super Bowl*

Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

Four Cast

Lawrence Taylor

Tony Siragusa

Troy Aikman

Dennis Miller

Who will be this year's Cinderella team?

Cincinnati Bengals

Detroit Lions

Cincinnati Bengals

Jacksonville Jaguars

Will Eli manning bomb in New York?

Expect a solid season from Eli

It'll be a rough year

Not if the giants use Jeremy shockey

Of course he won't

Who will be this year's rookie sensation?

Cowboys defense end demarcus ware

Ravens wide receiver Mark Clayton

Ravens wide receiver Mark Clayton

No idea

What's the best foot-ball movie ever made?

Any given sunday

The longest yard

North dallas forty, of course

Heaven can wait

Who's the greatest QB of all time?

Joe Montana

Dan Marino

Joe Montana

Joe Montana

Super bowl prediction?

Indianapolis over Carolina

Detroit and Kansas City, Ending in a tie

Indianapolis over seattle

New England over seattle

Playboy's NFL 2005 preview

NFL by the Number

Statistical Hors D'oeuvres to Chew on as the Season Kicks off

$37.13: Average ticket price at Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo, the cheapest in the league.

$35: Price to park your car at New England's Gillette Stadium.

42: Grade, on a scale of one to 50, that the Cowboys' Drew Henson reportedly scored on the Wonderlic test (which grades intelligence), among the highest for NFL quarterbacks.

16: Grade that Eagles QB Donovan McNabb reportedly scored.

43-58: Bill Belichick's head-coaching record without Tom Brady at quarterback.

57-14: Belichick's record with Brady at quarterback.

900: Number of pounds Cowboys guard Larry Allen can squat.

426: Number of pounds a new Honda Super Hawk sport motorcycle weighs (without fuel).

4.19 seconds: Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey's best 40-yard-dash time, fastest in the NFL.

$42,500: Amount television advertisers paid for a 30-second spot during Super Bowl I in 1967 (Packers 35, Chiefs 10).

$2.4 million: Amount television advertisers paid during Super Bowl XXXIX this past February (Patriots 24, Eagles 21).

376: Number of TD passes Packers quarterback Brett Favre has thrown in his career, second most in league history.

45: Number of TD passes Favre needs to break the record held by Dan Marino.

54: Number of NFL steroid suspensions since 1989, the first year of the league's steroid policy.

1: Rank of Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson on the Yahoo Sports fantasy football draft list.

Unranked: The three players who topped Tomlinson in votes for the 2000 Heisman Trophy (Chris Weinke, Josh Heupel and Drew Brees, in that order).

7 to 1: Preseason odds on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl, best of any team, as handicapped by USA Today sports-betting maven Danny Sheridan.

1 Sextillion to 1: Preseason odds on the 49ers to win the Super Bowl, worst of any team.

Playboy

*All-Pro*

*Playboy's*

All-Pro Team

NFL.com senior analyst and Playboy contributor Gil Brand picks the best for 2005

Offense

Quarterback: Peyton Manning, Colts

Halfback: Ladainian Tomlinson, Chargers

Fullback: Justin Griffith, Falcons

Wide Receiver: Terrell Owens, Eagles

Wide Receiver: Marvin Harrison, Colts

Tight End: Antonio Gates, Chargers

Center: Jeff Hartings, Steelers

Guard: Stephen Neal, Patriots

Guard: Willie Anderson, Bengals

Tackle: Bryant McKinnie, Vikings

Tackle: Steve Hutchinson, Seahawks

Kicker: Adam Vinatieri, Patriots

Punter: Shane Lechler, Raiders

Kick returner: Dante Hall, Chiefs

Offensive Rookie Of The Year:

Ronnie Brown, Rb, Dolphins

Defense

End: Shaun Ellis, Jets

End: Richard Seymour, Patriots

Tackle: Shaun Rogers, Lions

Tackle: Kevin Williams, Vikings

Nose Tackle: Jason Ferguson, Cowboys

Linebacker: Keith Bulluck, Bills

Linebacker: Keith Brooking, Broncos

Linebacker: Takeo Spikes, Bills

Cornerback: Champ Bailey, Broncos

Cornerback: Chris McAlister, Ravens

Safety: Brian Dawkins, Eagles

Safety: Ed Reed, Ravens

Defensive Rookie Of The Year:

Adam "Pac-Man" Jones, Cb, Titans

MVP Peyton Manning