Nothing but Net

Think of it like this: You're one of the nation's top basketball prospects. Maybe you're in high school, or maybe you're in college--it doesn't matter. You've just finished an impressive season, and now you have a decision to make. Do you shoot for a college diploma and a chance to play in the NCAA tournament, or do you try for an NBA contract with a signing bonus that would put you--and your family and entourage--on easy street for the rest of your life?

Some decision. In recent years the college ranks have seen a mass exodus of talent. Even those top high school stars who did choose college wanted only to refine their game for a year or two. Such departures make it tough on prognosticators. It's hard to figure out how good a team is when the players keep changing.

This year, however, the NBA took the momentous step of requiring that a player be at least 19 years old and one year removed from high school before he can join the pros. This new rule, along with a rookie salary scale that forces draft picks to accept a predetermined paycheck based on when they are taken in the draft, should keep more strong players in the college game. And that in turn will make the job of picking winners easier. Upperclassmen give teams a distinct advantage--more talent, more experience, more leadership. We saw this last year when the Fighting Illini, led by a group of battle-tested juniors and seniors, managed to hold the top rank through most of the season. That will likely be the winning formula for the best teams again this year.

Going back to the days of the legendary Anson Mount, Playboy has been extremely accurate in predicting the top teams. Here's what we forecast for the 2005-2006 season.

1. Duke The mark of a great program is consistency, and no school in America has been more consistent than Duke. The team returns the nation's best inside-outside combo in seniors Shelden Williams and J.J. Redick, two Playboy All Americas. Senior Sean Dockery will join Redick in the backcourt at point guard. Sophomore DeMarcus Nelson and freshmen Greg Paulus and Martynas Pocius should all see considerable playing time, and freshman Josh McRoberts, a contender for National High School Player of the Year last season, is expected to start immediately. Coach Mike Krzyzewski is one of the all-time greats. Come March, expect him to leave the RCA Dome in Indianapolis with his fourth national title.

S 2. Michigan State In the 10 years Tom Izzo has coached the Spartans, he's led them to the Final Four four times. This season should end with trip number five. Paul Davis (six-foot-11, 255 pounds) dominates around the basket. He'll get help from six-foot-six forward Matt Trannon, who is also on the Spartans football team; he'll bring toughness and defensive skills to the mix. With scoring guard Shannon Brown and point guard Drew Neitzel, the backcourt will be one of the country's best.

V 3. Villanova In 1985 the Wildcats worked a magical upset of Georgetown to win the title, but they haven't returned to the Final Four since. That could change this year. The Cats are led by senior guard Allan Ray, who put his NBA dreams on hold to try to get this club to a national title. Senior Randy Foye is a great perimeter scorer, junior Mike Nardi is an experienced point guard, and the team's big man, Curtis Sumpter, is back after a knee injury. Last year injuries and a questionable traveling call knocked Nova out of the tournament. If the team can avoid that kind of bad luck this season, it will be in the hunt.

4. Connecticut Last season red-shirt freshman A. J. Price suffered a brain hemorrhage, and senior Rashad Anderson came down with a strange, serious skin infection, none of which helped UConn in the NCAA tourney. This past summer Price and guard Marcus Williams were arrested for stealing laptops from dorm rooms and were suspended from the team. Will that be another torpedo in the engine room? We think not. In Playboy All Americas Josh Boone and Rudy Gay, Connecticut has one of the best frontcourt duos in the country. They'll get help from backups Hilton Armstrong and Ed Nelson, plus wing forward Denham Brown. Coach Jim Calhoun can rally this team and return it to elite form.

5.Texas The Longhorns ended a disappointing 2004-2005 season with a loss to Nevada in the tournament's first round. But absent from that defeat were star forward P. J. Tucker (academically ineligible) and LaMarcus Aldridge (injured hip). Now a junior, Tucker should blossom into a superstar if he can stay eligible. With the six-foot-10 Aldridge healthy again, the Longhorn frontcourt attack is scary. The backcourt is led by Big 12 Freshman of the Year Daniel Gibson, who's expected to be even better this year. Gibson is the key to this team: When he is on, Texas is tough to beat.

6. Louisville The Cardinals made a run to the Final Four last year before succumbing to top-ranked Illinois. Three starters have departed, but plenty of talent still remains for coach Rick Pitino to mold. The frontcourt is a definite strength with six-foot-eight Juan Palacios, six-foot-nine Brian Johnson and six-foot-11 David Padgett, who transferred from Kansas a year ago. The backcourt is led by senior Taquan Dean, not a true point guard but a lead guard who can flat-out score. He'll keep opponents on their toes and Louisville fans on their feet.

A 7. Arizona The Cats' 2004-2005 season ended in shock when they blew a 15-point lead over Illinois with four minutes left in the NCAA regional final. This year's squad is desperate to eradicate that memory. Lute Olson is one of the game's top coaches, and this season he has another well-balanced team. Senior Isaiah Fox and junior Kirk Walters combine to give Arizona depth in the post, and the backcourt--the team's strength--is led by senior swingman Hassan Adams, who can shoot with range and score inside. He should emerge as one of the best players in the country.

F 8. Texas Tech No NCAA coach gets more out of his players than Bobby Knight. Last year the Red Raiders made a surprise run to the Sweet 16, and this year's squad looks to contend again. The frontcourt is solid though young, with several freshmen vying for playing time. Junior Darryl Dora leads the attack. His toughness will be a huge factor in making Tech's motion offense work. In the backcourt, junior Jarrius Jackson will try to make up for the departure of Ronald Ross. Jackson hit 46 percent of his three-pointers last year and averaged more than 15 points a game.

M 9. Memphis Last season was a major disappointment for coach John Calipari, whose Tigers failed to make the (continued on page 166)Basketball(continued from page 142) tournament. But this season Memphis is a virtual lock for March Madness since most of the team's Conference USA rivals have bolted for the Big East. Freshman guard Darius Washington Jr. may be the best player in the conference. He'll put points on the board and pass the ball off to junior forward Rodney Carney, who'll take it from there. Other key Tiger players include freshman forward Joey Dorsey and junior guard Jeremy Hunt.

10. Gonzaga The Zags have spent several recent seasons wearing the Cinderella slipper in March. But now there are expectations, and with expectations comes scrutiny. Can coach Mark Few's squad handle the heat? Absolutely. A loaded roster led by budding superstar Adam Morrison, a junior forward who almost certainly will be a National Player of the Year finalist, will carry on the winning tradition. Morrison, a Playboy All America, brings a complete offensive game that makes everyone around him better--and junior point guard Derek Raivio and senior center J.P. Batista are pretty good to begin with.

11. Oklahoma Texas may be the preseason favorite, but Oklahoma will make a run at the Big 12 title behind the prime-time attack of senior forward Taj Gray, a Playboy All America who led the conference in field goal percentage his first season in a Sooners uniform. Senior forward Kevin Bookout battled injuries a year ago and still put up solid numbers; now he's healthy again. Coach Kelvin Sampson added a highly regarded recruiting class that should make up for the departure of guards Drew Lavender and Lawrence McKenzie.

12. Syracuse Fans of the Orange used up a lot of tissues weeping over last year's first-round loss to Vermont in the NCAA tourney. Now the team has something to prove, and coach Jim Boeheim will have to rely on some newcomers to prove it. Sure, senior guard and Playboy All America Gerry McNamara is one of the best shooters in the country, but if Syracuse is going to come anywhere near that final bracket in March, guard Louie McCroskey and forwards Terrence Roberts and Darryl Watkins will have to take their game to the next level.

13. Boston College The Eagles join the ACC, perhaps the toughest conference in the country, but coach Al Skinner returns four starters from a club that finished 25-5 a season ago. Featured in this group is senior forward and Playboy All America Craig Smith, who can score from anywhere. He'll need help on the glass from junior Jared Dudley and sophomore Sean Williams (who is suspended until the spring semester). The backcourt is led by Louis Hinnant, a solid guard who knows how to run an offense. Get yourself an NCAA satellite-TV package; watching BC take on Duke, Virginia and North Carolina will be a treat.

14. Kentucky Uncertainty clouds the Wildcats' future. Center Randolph Morris declared for the NBA draft but went unpicked. He has applied to the NCAA for reinstatement, but as of press time no decision has been made. Without his best player, coach Tubby Smith will have a big hole in the Wildcats' low-post attack. Still, one thing this team doesn't lack is height: Seven-foot center Lukasz Obrzut, seven-foot-three man-child Shagari Alleyne and seven-foot-two freshman Jared Carter make a towering trio, but all of them need to refine their game. In the backcourt the guard tandem of Rajon Rondo and Patrick Sparks is one of the SEC's best.

15. Ohio State Buckeyes fans are ecstatic about the future because of a commitment from seven-foot center Greg Oden, one of the best pure low-post center prospects to come out of the high school ranks in years. However, Oden, a high school senior, won't arrive in Columbus until next summer. What does coach Thad Matta have in store in the meantime? All five starters return from a team that upset then-undefeated and number-one-ranked Illinois a year ago. Big man Terence Dials is one of the best inside players in the Big 10. In the backcourt, senior Je'Kel Foster looks to hold on to the shooting guard spot, and senior J.J. Sullinger should have a big scoring season.

16. Nevada Many experts expect Nevada to be a major factor on the national scene this season. We don't see the team making a deep run in March, but this much we know: It'll dominate the WAC. Again. The Wolf Pack has a daunting one-two punch in six-foot-11 forward Nick Fazekas, who can score in the paint as well as from the three-point line, and guard Ramon Sessions, a double-digit scorer whose passing skills make the high-octane Nevada offense go. Two seven-footers give the team great depth in the post, and guard Marcelus Kemp returns to the lineup after missing last season with a knee injury.

17. Stanford Stanford has one of the most important ingredients for a winning college hoops team: a great backcourt led by seniors. Playboy All America Dan Grunfeld shot more than 50 percent from the floor a year ago and averaged nearly 18 points a game. He suffered a knee injury late in the season, but he should be back to full strength. Chris Hernandez is a prime-time floor leader who can also put points on the board. Up front, six-foot-11 Matt Haryasz is a solid scorer and rebounder who draws defensive focus, giving the rest of the lineup better looks at the basket.

18. Wake Forest Last year many experts picked the Demon Deacons to win the national championship. They had a good run until they lost in the second round of the NCAA tourney. Now coach Skip Prosser faces a new campaign minus four of his top six scorers from a year ago, including star guard Chris Paul, who left for the NBA. Senior forward Eric Williams is the team's best talent. His toughness under the basket makes him the focal point of the offense. The point guard job should fall to senior Justin Gray, who'll have to improve to make the attack hum. Keep an eye on top-notch freshman Kevin Swinton, who could explode out of the gate.

19. Illinois The Fighting Illini were Playboy's choice for the nation's number one team a year ago, and they came within an eyelash of winning the national title before succumbing to North Carolina in a heartbreaker. Now coach Bruce Weber must try to to build on the momentum of a 37-2 season without superstar guard Deron Williams and two other starters. Senior point guard and Playboy All America Dee Brown, a leading candidate for Big 10 Player of the Year, comes back from an injury to spearhead the attack. Low-post standout James Augustine needs to put up some numbers to compensate for heavy losses along the Illinois front line. He'll get help from forward Marcus Arnold, who arrives as a transfer from Illinois State, and Brian Randle, who missed last season because of an injury.

20. Alabama Coach Mark Gottfried has done a great job at Alabama. Now, with two of his top scorers departed, he is planning on a more athletic, defensive-minded approach. Senior Chuck Davis and junior Jermareo Davidson should make for a great set of bookends along the Alabama front line. The pressure will be on senior swingman Jean Felix to put points on the board. Standout freshman Richard Hendrix is a monster around the basket. If he can make the transition to the college game quickly, the Tide will have its next star.

21. University of North Carolina Charlotte Charlotte lost two key players from a 21-win team and must acclimate itself to a new, tougher conference, the Atlantic 10. Senior Curtis Withers looks to be the top scorer. He's a horse in the paint, and at six-foot-eight he fills the power-forward low-post role nicely. But he'll need help. His likely sidekick will be six-foot-eight forward E.J. Drayton, who has some range on his jump shot. Senior Mitchell Baldwin is a big-time floor leader with superb court savvy; he will benefit from the contributions of junior De'Angelo Alexander, a transfer from Oklahoma, who should make a major contribution at the other guard spot.

22. UCLA No program has a more storied history than UCLA, but in recent years there haven't been too many additions to the trophy case. Things may be on the upswing, however. Coach Ben Howland has a talented roster led by point guard Jordan Farmar, who'll be a major force as a sophomore. His ability to run the offense is the key to the Bruins' attack. Joining him in the backcourt is Arron Afflalo, whose knack for sinking threes should open up the low post, where seven-footers Michael Fey and Ryan Hollins reside. UCLA won't be making highlight reels in late March, but it will contend in the highly competitive Pac 10.

23. Georgetown Another school with an impressive history, Georgetown should take another step toward reviving its glory days. Coach John Thompson III, son of the legendary Hoyas coach, surprised everyone with a 19-win debut season and a run in the NIT. All his starters return, and he adds a hot recruiting class. Up front, sophomore Jeff Green and senior Brandon Bowman combined for nearly 30 points a game a year ago; this season that number should rise. The low-post attack is manned by seven-foot-two Roy Hibbert, who is capable but raw.

24. Kansas No college coach is feeling the heat like Bill Self in Kansas. Former coach Roy Williams, now at North Carolina, won almost 80 percent of his games during his years in Lawrence. (But yeah, we know--he never won a national title there.) Now Self, a fabulous coach, has to deal with the same pressure, except his roster isn't yet where he wants it to be. He has a long list of young guns who are talented but unproven. Freshman point guard Mario Chalmers should step in and run the show from day one. He'll work the backcourt with freshman Micah Downs and USC transfer Rodrick Stewart, who'll be eligible after the first semester. Veteran former walk-on forward Christian Moody should energize the Jayhawks with his physical play and leadership.

25. Wisconsin The Badgers lost four of their top six scorers from last year, but we still think they'll make a good showing. Coach Bo Ryan has a ridiculous 58-3 record at home in Madison and the highest winning percentage--71.9 percent--of any coach in Big 10 history who has coached at least 50 games. His lone returning starter is forward Alando Tucker, who will make a play for ail-American honors this season. Former McDonald's Ail-American Brian Butch needs a breakout season at forward to replace the dynamic duo of Mike Wilkinson and Zach Morley, who both graduated. Six-foot-11 sophomore Greg Stiemsma and six-foot-10 junior Jason Chappell provide depth at center. In coach Ryan's program, there's no such thing as a rebuilding year. The Badgers will battle for a Big 10 title once again.

Our top 25 teams for 2005

The Playboy 2005-2006

Preseason College All America Basketball team

Guards

Dee Brown 6'/185 Senior • Illinois

Dan Grunfeld 6'6"/215 Senior • Stanford

Gerry McNamara 6'2"/172 Senior • Syracuse

J.J. Redick 6'4"/190 Senior • Duke

Forwards

Rudy Gay 6'9"/220 Sophomore • Connecticut

Taj Gay 6'9"/238 Senior • Oklahoma

Adam Morrison 6'8"/205 Junior • Gonzaga

Craig Smith 6'7"/250 Senior • Boston College

Centers

Josh Boone 6'10"/237 Junior • Connecticut

Shelden Williams 6'9"/250 Senior • Duke

Coach of the year

Ray Giacoletti University of Utah

And the Award Goes to...

The 2005-2006 Anson Mount Scholar/Athlete

Johannes Herber is a six-foot-six senior guard at West Virginia University. He has started all 95 games of his WVU career and already ranks 11th in assists (322) and 10th in three-point shots made (106) in the school's record books. He majors in political science and carries a perfect 4.0 grade point average. In recognition of his achievements on the basketball court and in the classroom, Playboy has selected Herber as its Anson Mount Scholar/Athlete in Basketball for 2005-2006 and will donate $5,000 to West Virginia's general scholarship fund in his name.