Playboy's 2006 Baseball Preview: Going, Going, Gone

In 2004 Boston broke its streak. Last year it was the White Sox. But rest assured: This season will be even more surprising

Two years ago the Red Sox claimed their first championship since 1918. "It was a surreal feeling in that city," says commissioner Bud Selig. Last year the White Sox put an end to a drought that dated back to 1917. "You could feel the sense of accomplishment," says Selig. So what's next? The Cubs winning their first title since 1908? "I'm not going to get into that," Selig says. But the commissioner will talk about parity. In the past six seasons 10 teams have played in the World Series, with a different one taking the championship each year. "It gives so many people reason for hope," he says. "The barometer I like to use is how many teams are still in contention on Labor Day. In recent years we've had 17 to 20." The sport is coming off another record-setting year for attendance and income, which Selig credits to the game's revenue-sharing plan and luxury tax. This year promises to be even more intriguing because Barry Bonds looks to resume his climb up the chart of the game's greatest home-run hitters. After three knee surgeries limited him to only 52 plate appearances in 2005, Bonds is back. He starts 2006 with 708 home runs, seven away from passing Babe Ruth for the number two spot on the all-time list, something Bonds also 47 short of overall leader Henry Aaron's 755, a milestone Bonds has downplayed his desire to reach. However, as even Selig admits, the BALCO drug investigation will temper the excitement. "Time will tell if Bonds's accomplishments are tainted," he says. "He has been quiet this off-season, trying to get ready to play." Selig feels good, though, about baseball's recent attack on the use of illegal substances. What provides him with hope is the drug policy being the result of cooperation between the Players Association and the owners. "Instead of the continual hostility that had hung over our game for so long," he says, "the two sides worked together." The commissioner is even optimistic about negotiations for a new basic agreement. Four years ago, for the first time in more than three decades, baseball concluded labor negotiations without a work stoppage. There is now talk that a new deal could be reached without public posturing.

In the spirit of parity, we see another new champion this year: the Oakland Athletics.

Let's look at the teams (listed in predicted order of finish).

Al East

1. New York Yankees

Last season: 95-67. First place, lost to the Los Angeles Angels in five games in the Division Series. The Yankees have won eight consecutive division titles, but they haven't won it all since 2000 and have been to only one World Series in the past four seasons.

Off-season focus: They needed a center fielder and a top-of-the-lineup bat. By signing free agent Johnny Damon they got both, with the bonus of taking him away from archrival Boston. The Bombers also wanted to rebuild their bullpen, but after refusing to give Tom Gordon a three-year deal, they were forced to gamble on the inconsistent Kyle Farnsworth, giving him a three-year, $17 million deal. The Yanks also guaranteed two years to situational lefty Mike Myers.

Barry Bonds enters the season with 708 career home runs, only six fewer than Babe Ruth and 47 fewer than Hank Aaron. Could Bonds be the greatest slugger of all time?

In-season prognosis: With the addition of Damon, the lineup is ready to roll, and a title should be attainable. The key is in keeping the pitchers healthy, which is easier said than done, considering Randy Johnson's and Mike Mussina's age and the medical history of Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright and Chien-Ming Wang.

Playboy'S 2006 Baseball Preview

Al East

Closing statement: No one is better than Mariano Rivera. If anything, he has been so good for so long that the Yankees now take him for granted and overreact to his rare bad outings.

2. Toronto Blue Jays

Last season: 80-82. Third place, 15 games out. During his four-year regime, general manager J.P. Ricciardi has received more extensions (two) than his team has had winning seasons (one).

Off-season focus: The Jays found the pitching they needed, but it came at a steep price--a five-year, $55 million contract for A.J. Burnett, who has 49 career wins in seven seasons, and a five-year, $47 million deal with B.J. Ryan, who has been a closer for only one year. They also added legit bats to the lineup by acquiring third baseman Troy Glaus from Arizona, catcher Bengie Molina from the Angels and first baseman Lyle Overbay from Milwaukee--although the Glaus trade forced them to give up second-base whiz Orlando Hudson.

In-season prognosis: Ricciardi got his job by claiming he could compete despite a tight payroll, but he didn't hesitate to spend money once Rogers Communications, which owns the team, increased the revenue stream by purchasing SkyDome. Toronto has the talent to be in the race, so the pressure will be on untested manager John Gibbons to succeed.

Closing statement: Ryan used to rely on his slider, but when added movement on his fastball gave him something else to show hitters last year, he was able to thrive as a closer.

3. Boston Red Sox

Last season: 95-67. Though the Red Sox tied for the best record in the East, their 9-10 record against the Yankees relegated them to their eighth consecutive second-place finish and their third straight AL wild card. The White Sox swept them in the Division Series.

Off-season focus: With GM Theo Epstein returning from an 80-day hiatus, Boston finally has its front office sorted out. The Sox looked to improve their defense, acquiring Coco Crisp to replace Johnny Damon in center and signing Alex Gonzalez to take over at shortstop for Edgar Renteria, who was sent to Atlanta following an error-filled season that earned him the wrath of Boston fans.

In-season prognosis: Boston took advantage of the Florida Marlins' fire sale to add talent, but as good as his scouting reports may be, Josh Beckett has yet to prove he is durable enough to be a quality starter, and third baseman Mike Lowell's 2005 season has raised questions about his future. Add uncertainty about Curt Schilling's health and leaders Kevin Millar's and Johnny Damon's absence from the clubhouse, and the Bosox are likely to slip in the standings.

Closing statement: Keith Foulke, who battled injuries last year, is not your typical closer. He has an ordinary fastball, but he lives on the outer half of the plate with a good change and slider.

4. Baltimore Orioles

Last season: 74-88. Fourth place, 21 games out. At 31, off-season addition Kris Benson is the oldest member of the Orioles rotation.

Off-season focus: Baltimore had grand plans to beef up its offense but couldn't get its prime choices. Paul Konerko turned down more money to stay with the White Sox, and Jeromy Burnitz reneged on his agreement to a two-year deal, signing for one year in Pittsburgh instead. At one point shortstop Miguel Tejada demanded a trade, but by the start of spring training he had backed off.

In-season prognosis: The Orioles lack a solid veteran nucleus, and the young players haven't been consistent. New pitching coach Leo Mazzone gets a chance to show that his magic, rather than the quality of the Braves' pitchers, led to his success in Atlanta.

Closing statement: Chris Ray has been given the challenge of taking over for B.J. Ryan. He has a great arm but has yet to pick up his first big-league save.

5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Last season: 67-95. Last place, 28 games out. The Devil Rays have finished in last place in all but one year since they joined the league in 1998, and the team has never lost fewer than 91 games in a season.

Off-season focus: Tampa launched yet another rebuilding program with a new front office that features former Houston general manager Gerry Hunsicker advising youthful Rays GM Andrew Friedman. The team also replaced manager Lou Piniella with longtime Angels bench coach Joe Maddon. By trading relievers Danys Baez and Lance Carter to the Dodgers for prospects, the team made it clear that it's looking to the future.

In-season prognosis: The Devil Rays have a surprising amount of young talent, but they don't have the veterans to bring the team together. With a patchwork bullpen and a dubious rotation, Tampa has no realistic hope of escaping the AL East's lower tier.

Closing statement: Right-hander Shinji Mori arrives from Japan, where he was an All-Star setup man for the Seibu Lions. Maddon will juggle his bullpen a lot, which could mean that journeyman Dan Miceli and sophomore Chad Orvella will get save chances as well.

1. Chicago White Sox

Last season: 99-63. First place, swept Boston in the Division Series, beat the Angels in five games in the ALCS and swept Houston in the World Series. To defend their title, the Sox have raised payroll by $22 million, to $97 million.

Off-season focus: Not wanting to take anything for granted, Chicago added to its strengths. As well as re-signing Paul Konerko, the White Sox traded for Jim Thome to provide left-handed balance to the middle of the lineup. They tied up Jon Garland for three years and traded for Javier Vazquez, adding another veteran starter who can eat innings. They left themselves with uncertainty in the bullpen, though, by dealing lefty Damaso Marte for versatile utility man Rob Mackowiak.

In-season prognosis: Owner Jerry Reinsdorf didn't boost the payroll so he could finish second. Making the most of his relievers could prove challenging for manager Ozzie Guillen, but last year he showed a knack for finding the hot bullpen hand and staying with him.

Closing statement: Right-hander Bobby Jenks has the stuff and showed a never-say-die attitude last year, but his past raises questions about whether he can stay focused for a full season.

2. Minnesota Twins

Last season: 83-79. Third place, 16 games out. The Twins were 15-55 when they scored three or fewer runs in 2005.

Off-season focus: Minnesota had to bulk up its offense, which took a hit with the free-agent departure of Jacque Jones. The team filled Jones's vacancy with outfielder Rondell White and addressed the need for a leadoff hitter and second baseman by picking up Luis Castillo from Florida. The Twins flirted with trading for Toronto third baseman Corey Koskie but decided instead to see if journeyman Tony Batista has one more season in him.

In-season prognosis: The Twins have wild-card potential, especially since they play 38 games against Detroit and Kansas City. Brad Radke has slipped to a bottom-of-the-rotation starter, but his talk of retiring means this should be an emotional year for him.

Closing statement: Joe Nathan was a steal for GM Terry Ryan when he was acquired from San Francisco in 2004. He has a resilient arm and a demeanor that lets hitters know he is in charge.

3. Cleveland Indians

Last season: 93-69. Second place, six games out. The Tribe suffered 36 of its 69 losses by one run, despite having what was statistically the best bullpen in the league.

Off-season focus: The Indians had to retool their rotation after losing AL ERA champ Kevin Millwood and Scott Elarton to free agency. They wound up risking $14.25 million on a two-year contract to oft-injured Paul Byrd. Cleveland also brought back right-handed relievers Danny Graves and Steve Karsay to replace underrated setup man Bob Howry, now with the Cubs.

In-season prognosis: Cleveland doesn't have the pitching to duplicate 2005's run for the postseason, which ended when six losses in the final seven games cost the team a wild-card spot. The Indians do, however, have most of their lineup back and will need the offense to carry them, much as it did during their run of five consecutive division titles in the 1990s.

Closing statement: Cleveland wanted to upgrade from Bob Wickman, given his age and injury history, but nobody can take away from his competitive nature, a key to finishing games.

4. Detroit Tigers

Last season: 71-91. Fourth place, 28 games out. The Tigers have had a dozen consecutive losing seasons, which is the longest current streak in the American League and the longest in franchise history.

Off-season focus: After boosting their offense the past two off-seasons by bringing in catcher Ivan Rodriguez and outfielder Magglio Ordonez, the Tigers realized they needed to look for pitching help this past winter. They found a veteran starter in Kenny Rogers and convinced former closer Todd Jones to come back after a 40-save season with Florida.

In-season prognosis: Manager Jim Leyland returns to the Tigers and looks to remove any tarnish that may remain on his managerial record following his walking out on the Marlins after the 1998 season and the Rockies after 1999. Leyland will definitely have his work cut out for him in a competitive division with a team that doesn't fit together well and has had to buy loyalty with free-agent contracts.

Closing statement: Todd Jones resurrected his career a year ago after Florida invited him to spring training. He gets by more on moxie than stuff these days, but he somehow managed to get a two-year guarantee from the Tigers.

5. Kansas City Royals

Last season: 56-106. Last place, 43 games out. After avoiding a 100-loss season in their first 33 years of existence, the Royals have lost 100 or more in three of the past four seasons.

Off-season focus: Looking to plug roster holes, Kansas City hauled in second-tier free agents, signing outfielder Reggie Sanders, second baseman Mark Grudzielanek, first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz and pitchers Mark Redman, Scott Elarton and Joe Mays. This brought back memories of 1997, when the performance of off-season additions Jay Bell and Jeff King cost manager Bob Boone his job.

In-season prognosis: It's going to get ugly. Owner David Glass has said he expects a .500 record at minimum if GM Allard Baird and his front-office staff want to return in 2007.

Closing statement: Mike MacDougal has the stuff but needs to be more consistent in throwing strikes. In other words, he has to have confidence in his ability to challenge hitters.

1. Oakland Athletics

Last season: 88-74. Second place, seven games out. The Athletics were 33-45 while shortstop Bobby Crosby was on the disabled list.

Off-season focus: Shopping for right-handed power to balance their lineup, the A's decided to take risks. They traded for Dodgers outfielder Milton Bradley after L.A. finally decided his clubhouse problems offset any benefits his switch-hitting ability afforded. Oakland then signed designated hitter Frank Thomas, who broke his left ankle twice last year and was told the White Sox no longer needed his services. The A's also added rotation depth by signing moody starter Esteban Loaiza to a multiyear deal.

In-season prognosis: GM Billy Beane has long said he's not worried about clubhouse harmony, and he reaffirmed that by bringing in Bradley and Loaiza. If the two of them fit into the A's system, Oakland could have its best team since 2001, even if manager Ken Macha needs to do a lot of babysitting.

Closing statement: Only a year out of college last season, Huston Street showed the A's he wasn't the slightest bit intimidated by the big leagues. He has a great arm with command and savvy.

2. Los Angeles Angels

Last season: 95-67. First place, defeated New York in the Division (continued on page 136) Baseball (continued from page 66)

Series in five games but lost the ALCS to Chicago in five. The Angels managed to win their division despite a team OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) of .734, which ranked 11th in the league.

Off-season focus: The Angels claimed they wanted to add an impact bat but couldn't lure Paul Konerko away from the White Sox and refused to meet Boston's demands for Manny Ramirez or Baltimore's for Miguel Tejada. They managed to unload outfielder Steve Finley's contract on San Francisco but had to take Edgardo Alfonzo, who will provide infield depth. As a result, Darin Erstad moves back to center field after spending two seasons at first base.

In-season prognosis: With the addition of left-hander J.C. Romero, the Angels have the best bullpen in baseball. Manager Mike Scioscia has shown he can get the matchups he needs for the arms he has ready. Whether the Halos can win depends on Casey Kotchman or Kendry Morales emerging to claim primary first-base duties.

Closing statement: Francisco Rodriguez has handled the pressure of late-inning situations with ease since rising to prominence in the 2002 postseason. He has power stuff and isn't bothered by rough stretches.

3. Texas Rangers

Last season: 79-83. Third place, 16 games out. Only eight times last year did an AL team score 10 or more runs and lose. Texas did it two of those times.

Off-season focus: Manager Buck Showalter continued to expand his power base, forcing GM John Hart into an advisory capacity and running Hart's ally, pitching coach Orel Hershiser, out of the organization. After failing to sign free-agent pitchers, the Rangers panicked and were bluffed into giving Kevin Millwood a five-year, $60 million contract. They also traded for Adam Eaton and Vicente Padilla to fill a rotation that retains none of its five members from last year's opening day.

In-season prognosis: Owner Tom Hicks upped the payroll by $20 million to provide more pitching, which means he expects to win the division, something the team hasn't done since 1999. The bullpen remains the Rangers' vulnerability, and the lineup's young core is beginning to show the same skepticism toward Showalter that players expressed during his previous stints with Arizona and New York.

Closing statement: Francisco Cordero can dominate hitters but has to be more consistent in the strike zone to become a premier closer.

4. Seattle Mariners

Last season: 69-93. Last place, 26 games out. The Mariners are the first team to go from back-to-back 90-win seasons to back-to-back 90-loss seasons since the 1913-1916 Philadelphia A's.

Off-season focus: They claim to have added left-handed power to the lineup and strengthened the rotation, but the reality is the Mariners agreed to pay $37.5 million to lefty Jarrod Washburn for four years and had to give Kevin Appier a minor-league deal. For offense they signed Carl Everett and Matt Lawton, both of whom are past their prime.

In-season prognosis: Forget about contending; the Mariners would have to overachieve to avoid a third consecutive last-place finish. Vast Safeco Field can hide a subpar pitching staff for only so long, and the offense doesn't have enough explosiveness to carry the load.

Closing statement: Eddie Guardado, or Everyday Eddie, as he was known in Minnesota, has above-average stuff, but more important, he can hit his spots.

NL East

1. Atlanta Braves

Last season: 90-72. First place, lost to Houston in the Division Series. Atlanta has won a pro-sports-record 14 consecutive division titles, and manager Bobby Cox has won division titles in his past 15 full seasons, including his final year with Toronto in 1985.

Off-season focus: The Braves were unable to re-sign free agent Rafael Furcal and had to part with prime third-base prospect Andy Marte to get veteran Edgar Renteria from Boston. Concerns continue to grow about Wilson Betemit, a onetime superprospect.

In-season prognosis: The Braves' lineup got a big lift from the arrival of farm-system products Jeff Francoeur and Ryan Langerhans a year ago, but the key this year will be finding a quality closer. If Atlanta is able to fill that need, it stands to add another title to its legacy in what should be the weakest NL East in the decade since the league went to the three-division format.

Closing statement: Right-hander Chris Reitsma was a two-month wonder who faded in August last year. His consistency remains a question. Good thing Bobby Cox is used to mixing and matching his way through the late innings.

2. New York Mets

Last season: 83-79. Tied for third place, seven games out. The Mets had a winning record for the first time since 2001, adding 12 victories to their 2004 total.

Off-season focus: The Mets had to improve their pen, particularly the back end, and made a statement by luring free agent Billy Wagner to close games. To make sure they can reach Wagner, the Mets were willing to juggle their rotation to add middle-relief depth, trading Kris Benson to Baltimore for Jorge Julio and sending Jae Seo to the Dodgers for Duaner Sanchez.

In-season prognosis: The pressure is on the Mets to unseat the Braves, particularly after they went to the expense of adding big bat Carlos Delgado to go along with Wagner's arm. The improvements came at the cost of the rotation. That means the team will need a breakout season from Aaron Heilman.

Closing statement: Wagner overpowers hitters, regardless of which side they hit from, and he never backs down.

3. Philadelphia Phillies

Last season: 88-74. Second place, two games out. The Phillies have made it to October only once since 1983--in 1993, when they lost to Joe Carter's Blue Jays in the World Series.

Off-season focus: From the start the Phillies knew they needed to bolster their pitching staff, and the challenge grew when Billy Wagner left for Shea Stadium. They had to settle on the aging Tom Gordon as a closer, and they also brought in lefty reliever Arthur Rhodes, right-hander Julio Santana and starting candidate Ryan Franklin.

In-season prognosis: Growing frustrations led to the firing of general manager Ed Wade and the hiring of Pat Gillick, who has built playoff teams in Toronto, Baltimore and Seattle. It's going to take more than one winter for Gillick to get the Phillies back on track.

Closing statement: Tom Gordon has a great curveball, but he's now 38 years old. The team has to wonder if his body will hold up.

Good Eye, Bad Eye

Lowest percentage of swings at balls out of the strike zone (minimum 502 plate appearances): Brian Giles, Padres (16.8); Bobby Abreu, Phillies (17.6); Jason Giambi, Yankees (18.1); David Dellucci, Rangers (20.0); Brad Wilkerson, Nationals (21.1)

Highest percentage of swings at balls out of the strike zone (minimum 502 plate appearances): Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers (46.8); Angel Berroa, Royals (46.3); Jorge Cantu, Devil Rays (43.8); Carl Crawford, Devil Rays (43.8); Dmitri Young, Tigers (42.9).

4. Washington Nationals

Last season: 81-81. Last place, nine games out. Washington struggled offensively, finishing last in the NL in batting average (.252), runs (639), home runs (117), stolen bases (45) and slugging percentage (.386).

Off-season focus: The Nationals found hope in their inaugural season in the capital, but that didn't help them overcome the limitations of being owned by the league or alleviate their continuing uncertainty about a stadium. Even when they made an off-season move and added Alfonso Soriano, they created a clubhouse stir because he refused to move from second base to the outfield.

In-season prognosis: Matching last year's 81 wins will be a challenge. With an offense ill-suited to their enormous ballpark and a piecemeal rotation, the Nats will be thankful they're in the same division as the Marlins.

Closing statement: Chad Cordero ranks with Oakland's Huston Street as one of the game's elite young closers. He doesn't have a closer's fastball, but he doesn't know it. He has the mind-set to finish games and will challenge hitters.

5. Florida Marlins

Last season: 83-79. Tied for third place, seven games out. The only player still around from last year's opening-day lineup is Miguel Cabrera, and he is moving from the outfield to third base.

Off-season focus: For the second time in seven years, the Marlins had a fire sale, slashing payroll that was a franchise record $66 million last year to less than $30 million this year--and that includes money being paid to former Fish Pudge Rodriguez, Al Leiter and Carlos Del-gado, who now play elsewhere.

In-season focus: The 2006 campaign could make Florida's 1998 cost-cutting season (which brought 108 losses) seem like a good time. This is a team with no veteran influence in the clubhouse and a rookie manager, Joe Girardi, whose coaching experience consists of one year on the Yankees bench next to Joe Torre.

Closing statement: Joe Borowski, a onetime closer for the Cubs, has battled injuries but showed flashes of his old stuff at Tampa Bay in the second half of last season. Still, the Marlins will be looking for a young arm to push him aside.

NL Central

1. Chicago Cubs

Last season: 79-83. Fourth place, 21 games out. The Cubs' big three of Kerry Wood, Greg Maddux and Mark Prior have combined to win 57 games in the past two seasons.

Off-season focus: Chicago had to rebuild a bullpen that had become a long-term headache. The club resigned Ryan Dempster, who took over closing duties last year, and paid $23 million in three-year deals to journeyman relievers Bob Howry, a righthander, and Scott Eyre, a lefty. It also exercised an option on Scott Williamson, who the team hopes will duplicate Dempster's recovery by coming back strong from elbow surgery.

In-season prognosis: With a revamped outfield--the Cubs added Juan Pierre to bat leadoff and Jacque Jones to provide mid-lineup production--the North Siders have every reason to expect a division title. Keep an eye on the Dusty Baker soap opera: The manager could walk even if he's offered an extension.

Closing statement: Right-hander Dempster moved into the closer's role early last season and responded to the challenge. He has the makeup, but does his reconstructed elbow have the strength to throw back-to-back seasons?

2. St. Louis Cardinals

Last season: 100-62. First place, swept San Diego in the Division Series, lost to Houston in six games in the NLCS. The Cardinals have won 205 games in the past two regular seasons but no world championship.

Off-season focus: After being swept by Boston in the World Series two years ago and not earning a return trip in 2005, the Cards decided to rebuild their pitching staff. Spurned by A.J. Burnett, they had to gamble on Sidney Ponson. With Larry Walker's retirement and Reggie Sanders's departure, the outfield also needed to be revamped. And St. Louis fans can only hope third baseman Scott Rolen bounces back after two surgeries on his right shoulder.

In-season prognosis: A welcome move into a new ballpark will be the highlight of a disappointing season. Budget limitations didn't allow the Cardinals to add an impact player in the off-season. And even if Ponson can equal departed right-hander Matt Morris's performance on the field, Morris will still be missed in the clubhouse.

Closing statement: Jason Isringhausen is the most overlooked closer in the game. He doesn't have the dominating pitch, but he has shown he can do the job for a championship team.

Almost Gone

Batters with the most fly-ball outs of more than 380 feet: Hank Blalock, Rangers (19); Troy Glaus, Diamondbacks (17); Raul Ibanez, Mariners (16); Hideki Matsui, Yankees (16); David Ortiz, Red Sox (16); Jimmy Rollins, Phillies (16).

3. Milwaukee Brewers

Last season: 81-81. Third place, 19 games out. The Brewers not only ended a stretch of 12 consecutive losing seasons with last year's .500 finish, but for the first time in five years they avoided losing more than 93 games.

Off-season focus: Derrick Turnbow emerged last season to fill the closer's role, but the Brewers knew they needed arms to bridge between him and the starters. They reacquired former closer Dan Kolb, who was a bust in Atlanta last year, and picked up Dave Bush in the trade that sent Lyle Over-bay to Toronto. They also added a veteran third baseman, Corey Koskie, to go with kid infielders J.J. Hardy, Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder.

In-season prognosis: The Brewers haven't been to the postseason since 1982, and there's little reason to think that will change in 2006. However, if they avoid health issues--and that means Ben Sheets rebounding from the bum shoulder that cost him the final six weeks of 2005--they can hang around the fringes of the postseason race.

Closing statement: Power pitcher Turnbow is the latest unknown who has surfaced to save games for GM Doug Melvin. Turnbow will have to dominate the ninth this season.

4. Houston Astros

Last season: 89-73. The NL wild-card winner beat Atlanta in the Division Series in four games and St. Louis in the NLCS in six before being swept by the White Sox in the World Series. The Astros scored three or fewer runs in 74 games, losing 54 of them.

Off-season focus: Despite their need for offense, the Astros went looking for ways to save money, including filing a $15.6 million insurance claim in hopes of ending Jeff Bagwell's career. The only significant addition to a team that ranked 11th in the league in runs scored and 13th in on-base percentage was Preston Wilson, who struck out 148 times last season.

In-season prognosis: The Astros will struggle to avoid a losing season, which would be only their second in 16 years. Houston's refusal to offer arbitration to pitcher Roger Clemens and the insurance fiasco with Bagwell, the most critical clubhouse force on the roster, may cost the team two of its leaders.

Closing statement: Brad Lidge struggled in the postseason, and any misstep will be blamed on that. But he has an electric slider, and he spent the off-season working on a split-fingered pitch.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates

Last season: 67-95. Last place, 33 games out. The Pirates have suffered a franchise-record 13 straight losing seasons, three shy of the major-league record set by the Phillies from 1933 to 1948.

Off-season focus: After finishing 14th in the NL in offense, Pittsburgh looked to add lumber. The team traded for hometown hero Sean Casey and signed free-agent outfielder Jeromy Burnitz and third baseman Joe Randa. It's counting on Burnitz's left-handed power to complement right-hand-hitting Jason Bay.

In-season prognosis: The Pirates' payroll jumped from $32 million to $47 million, thanks to revenue generated in part by hosting the 2006 All-Star Game, but that won't fill the holes caused by a farm system that has been mostly barren for a decade.

Closing statement: Left-hander Mike Gonzalez will move from his setup role to the ninth inning. He's a good strikeout pitcher but has been untested as a closer.

Money Pitch

Pitchers with the most called third strikes with runners in scoring position: A.J. Burnett, Marlins (21); Chris Capuano, Brewers (21); Brett Myers, Phillies (19); Erik Bedard, Orioles (18); Roger Clemens, Astros (18); Livan Hernandez, Nationals (18); Esteban Loaiza, Nationals (18).

6. Cincinnati Reds

Last season: 73-89. Fifth place, 27 games out. The Reds' 5.15 ERA was the highest in the NL (even higher than Colorado's) and ranked 28th in the majors, ahead of only Tampa Bay and Kansas City.

Off-season focus: Cincinnati welcomed new owner Bob Castellini, whose first move was to fire GM Dan O'Brien after only his second year on the job. That won't change much on the field, though. The addition of lefty Dave Williams, who brings a career line of 17-26 from the Pirates, will do little to help a mediocre pitching staff.

In-season prognosis: Castellini quickly took to the limelight and has shown he's going to meddle. That doesn't bode well for manager Jerry Narron, who had this team playing respectably at the end of last season but hasn't been given any reason to think it will be better in 2006.

Closing statement: This is why managers get fired. After former first-round draft pick Ryan Wagner struggled to survive in the major leagues, much less to save games, David Weathers, a middle reliever who is somewhat past his prime, was forced into the closer role.

NL West

1. San Francisco Giants

Last season: 75-87. Third place, seven games out. After drawing 232 walks in 2004, Barry Bonds was limited to nine free passes in 52 plate appearances in 2005. The Giants ranked 15th in the NL, with only 431 walks.

Off-season focus: After overestimating the ability of their young arms, the Giants invested $27 million in a three-year contract for Matt Morris to put another veteran alongside Jason Schmidt in the rotation. They also unloaded Edgardo Alfonzo, opening third base for Pedro Feliz, but they had to take on outfielder Steve Finley as a result.

In-season prognosis: Bonds's availability will be the key. He skipped the World Baseball Classic because of health concerns after three operations on his right knee last year. The Giants hope he will play in at least 100 games, as he is enough to make the difference in the league's weakest division.

Closing statement: Armando Benitez is an old warrior coming back from a new injury Whether he'll be healthy enough at his age and with his ailments to be effective remains to be seen.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers

Last season: 71-91. Fourth place, 11 games out. The combined 1,177 games Dodgers players missed because of injuries in 2005 was the most in 20 years. That total includes 366 missed by eight members of the opening-day lineup.

Off-season focus: Owner Frank McCourt did a major makeover, firing GM Paul DePodesta and replacing departing manager Jim Tracy with Grady Little. New GM Ned Colletti then rebuilt the infield, bringing in third baseman Bill Mueller, shortstop Rafael Furcal and first baseman Nomar Garciaparra to go with holdover Jeff Kent.

In-season prognosis: The Dodgers have reason to feel they can make a run at a division without a clear-cut favorite, as long as closer Eric Gagne can bounce back from the elbow surgery that limited him in 2005. The lineup will certainly have a new look, with Kent and right Fielder J.D. Drew the only remaining starters from opening day last year.

Closing statement: Having recovered from his injury--the Dodgers hope--a trimmed-down Gagne will try to once again dominate as he did when converting a record 84 consecutive save opportunities, a streak that ended in 2004.

3. Colorado Rockies

Last season: 67-95. Last place, 15 games out. Rockies relievers failed in 12 of 19 save chances during their 15-36 start but converted 30 of 44 and lowered their ERA from 6.75 to 4.25 in the final 111 games.

Off-season focus: After starting last year with five rookies among the seven pitchers in their pen, the Rockies decided they needed veteran stability to help Brian Fuentes, who emerged as the closer in mid-May and converted 31 of 33 opportunities. They re-signed Mike Dejean, a mid-2005 pickup, added Jose Mesa, who has closing experience and found a lefty, Ray King, to serve as Fuen-tes's primary setup man.

In-season prognosis: The Rockies have surprise potential. In 2005 the newcomers settled in and battled back from a horrendous beginning to finish with a winning record over the final two months. None of the young players had a career year, and Todd Helton had the least productive season of his career, so chances are the offense will grow.

Closing statement: Southpaw Fuen-tes, a sidearmer with plus stuff and no fear, arrived as a major-league-caliber closer a year ago. He's the reason Colorado now has a chance to win when it takes a lead to the ninth.

4. San Diego Padres

Last season: 82-80. First place, swept by St. Louis in the NL Division Series. Counting their playoff losses, the Padres were the first team ever to appear in the postseason and finish below .500.

Off-season focus: The Pads weren't blinded by their division title. Fourteen of 25 players from the postseason roster were gone before spring training started. San Diego focused on shoring up its defense, which is vital in a park the size of Petco. But can the gloves of third baseman Vinny Castilla and center fielder Mike Cameron--whose arrival allows Dave Roberts to move to left--offset the offensive struggles they will face in a pitchers' park?

In-season prognosis: The Padres moved Petco's right-center fence in by 11 feet, making it a mere 402 feet from the plate. This won't be enough to juice up an offense that can count on only Brian Giles to produce runs consistently. With a spotty rotation, the Padres lack what it takes to win, even in their division.

Closing statement: Trevor Hoffman's not what he once was, but his competitiveness makes him better than his stuff. And he still has a premium changeup.

5. Arizona Diamondbacks

Last season: 77-85. Second place, five games out. By dealing pitcher Javier Vazquez to the White Sox and third baseman Troy Glaus to Toronto, Arizona was able to unload contracts worth $56.75 million over the next three years.

Off-season focus: The Diamondbacks feel they have a cache of young players coming along, so ownership wanted to cut salary as much as possible to help pay down long-term debt. Tony Clark and Shawn Green are the only position players under contract past 2006, and Clark isn't even projected for everyday duty. Of the pitchers, only Brandon Webb and Russ Ortiz are signed past this year.

In-season prognosis: The D-backs are preaching improvement, but they traded Glaus, their only feared hitter, because management didn't think he worked hard enough. After dealing Vazquez, the team is left with Brandon Webb as its lone dependable starter.

Closing statement: Brandon Lyon can survive if he hits his spots, but he's not a power guy. Expect Arizona to look for an upgrade.

Statistical support provided by Stats LLC.

In closing

Goose Gossage

Playboy: Does the Hall of Fame voting bother you?

Gossage: I'd be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed. I know there weren't many people who did the job better than I did.

Playboy: Did you come too early in the evolution of the reliever to get your due?

Gossage: I don't know. Dennis Eckersley deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, but it's insulting that he got in before Bruce Sutter and myself. I hear all this talk of people comparing us to Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman. Please. They should be compared to us.

Playboy: Do you think modern players get too much hype?

Gossage: It pisses me off when I hear people say Barry Bonds is the greatest hitter. He's playing in a wussy era. The game is soft. You never get thrown at today. The last thing a hitter has to worry about today is getting hit. The first thing Hank Aaron had to worry about was "I'm black. Am I going to survive this at-bat?"

In closing

Billy Wagner

Playboy: You said you would never pitch in New York, but as a free agent you chose the Mets. What happened?

Wagner: I come from a small town in Virginia and played in Houston, which is a laid-back city. But the Astros traded me to the Phillies. If you can handle Philadelphia, you can handle anything. Blow a save in Houston and it's "Go get 'em tomorrow." Blow a save in Philly and it's the end of the world. Going to an East Coast market, I started to see things differently.

Playboy: How did Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell influence your career?

Wagner: They taught me how to approach the game, the mental aspects. They talked about anticipating things. When you stepped onto the field with Biggio and Bagwell, you wanted to live up to their expectations. They set the tone for how hard you played. They made you realize you were playing for a team, not for an individual.

Bullpens

Most relief innings pitched:

Salomon Torres, Pirates (94.2); Scot Shields, Angels (91.2); Ryan Madson, Phillies (87); Gary Majewski, Nationals (86); Justin Duchscherer, A's (85.2). Most holds: Tom Gordon, Yankees (33); Scot Shields, Angels (33); Scott Eyre, Giants (32); Ryan Madson, Phillies (32); Julian Tavarez, Cardinals (32). Closers with the lowest opponent's batting average against (minimum 20 saves): Billy Wagner, Phillies (.165); Mariano Rivera, Yankees (.177); Joe Nathan, Twins (.183); Francisco Rodriguez, Angels (.184); Huston Street, A's (.194). Lowest ERA in save situations (minimum 20 save opportunities): Mariano Rivera, Yankees (1.25); Brian Fuentes, Rockies (1.26); Ryan Dempster, Cubs (1.47); Billy Wagner, Phillies (1.48); Dustin Hermanson, White Sox (1.49).

The Book

Never swing at a 3-0 pitch? Teams with the highest percentage of swings on a 3-0 count:

Rangers (12.3), Tigers (10.9), Angels (10.5), Mariners (9.9), Astros (9.8).

Don't use your closer before the ninth? Teams with the most saves of four or more outs: A's (13), Blue Jays (12), Diamondbacks (11), Devil Rays (10), Angels (9).

Never walk the leadoff hitter? Teams with the most walks allowed to an inning's leadoff batter: Devil Rays (125), Pirates (122), Royals (119), Cubs (118), Rockies (115).

Never give up a home run on an 0-2 count? Teams allowing the most homers on an 0-2 count: Red Sox (13), Cubs (10), Rangers (10), Reds (9), Astros (8), Twins (8).