Playboy's 2012 Baseball Preview

Get ready for the 2012 season

READY OR NOT

During a 13-year playing career, Mike Matheny was often praised for his mana­gerial potential. Still, when the St. Louis Cardinals selected him last fall to replace manager Tony La Russa, it was a surprise. Matheny had served the Cardinals as a catching instructor but had no managerial experience. The Cardinals are defending world champions. Can they repeat? The odds are stacked against them. In only 14 instances has a franchise won consecutive world championships, including six times by the Yankees. A National League team has won back-to-back championships only three times-Cincinnati in1975and1976, the New York Giants in 1921 and 1922, and the Chi­cago Cubs in 1907 and 1908. Only twice has a world champ defended the title after a man­agerial change, and only four times has a rookie manager won a championship.

BUYING UNHAPPINESS

Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols were the big names on the free-agent market. Fielder signed a nine-year, $214 million deal in Detroit after the Angels gave Pujols a 10-year, $240 million contract. Other numbers worth considering: Pujols turned 32 in January; Fielder turns 28 on May 9. In the pastil years teams have signed at least 28 players to con­tracts with guarantees of six or more years. Twenty-five of those deals went to position players. With youth, the odds are better of getting a return on the investment. Consider that 10 of the 28 deals were given to players who were 30 or older the first year of the deal. One went to Pujols and anotherto his former St. Louis teammate Matt Holliday, who has five years remaining on his seven-yeardeal. Of the other eight players over the age of 30 who were given deals, none met expectations.

LABORIOUS JOB

Over the years general managers were basi­cally bulletproof. It was the field manaqer

who took the hits for a team's failure. That is changing. The 2012 season opens with seven general-manager changes as well as seven mana­gerial changes. It's only the 10th time in history that there haven't heen more manage­rial changes than GM changes. All ID

have occurred since 1972, the year that saw the first of eight work stoppages.

WILD WAYS

Is the best team the team with the best over­all record or the team that wins the World Series? Rarely does the same team accom­plish both. Since the advent of the wild card in 1995, only three times has the team with the best record won the championship-the Yankees in 1998 and 2009 and Boston in 2007. By contrast, wild-card teams have won five World Series.

The challenge for the wild card will be big­ger starting this year when two wild cards in each league meet in a one-game show­down before advancing to the Division Series. Thatmeansthewild cardswill usetheirbest pitcher merely to get past the play-in game, which could alter their pitching depth for the next round.

THEY DID WHAT?

Colorado says it is building around youth and swears it didn't change its approach in the off­season, even though the team's opening-day lineup figures to go from an average age of 28 to 32. San Francisco's recent success has been built on pitching, which raises questions

about two recent moves. Last season the team dealt top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler to the Mets for slightly more than two monthsof outfielder Carlos Beltran. This off-season it sent lefty Jonathan Sanchez to Kansas City for outfielder Melky Cabrera. That left the Giants

looking to Barry Zito as a fifth starter. He is the highest-paid player on the team, but in the first five years of his seven-year, $12G million deal he was 43-61 with a 4.55 ERA. Then there are the Oakland A's. With moneyball having produced five consecutive nonwinning seasons, the A's shook things up. They took the strength of the team, the rota­tion, and stripped it down in a series of deals that netted only outfielder Seth Smith to help an offense that scored the third-fewest runs in the AL last year. When the wheeling and dealing was done, Brandon McCarthy was the only holdover from last year's rotation, and the major off-season addition was Bartolo Colon, who turns 39 in May.

TAMPA BAY

There is no Oscar-nominated moviethat pro­claims the greatness of the Tampa Bay Rays. But there is their track record, which speaks loudly for the approach taken by what is con­sistently among the lowest-budget teams in baseball. The Rays have madethe postsea­son in three of the past four years, and they could be better than ever in 2012. Their pitch­ing staff, which is the foundation for success, is virtually untouched from a year ago, and the lineup should be even better. The Rays avoided a mass exodus of free agents dur­ing the off-season. They return six of nine starters and are strongeratthe other three. First baseman Carlos Pena returns as a free agent, replacing Casey Kotchman. Sam Fuld moves to the bench, opening up left field for Desmond Jennings, who hit ID home runs in 247 at-bats last season. Jose Molina takes over behind the plate from Kelly Shoppach.

top 30

Tampa Bay: No fancy formula.

Hard work, good scouting and success

on a budget.

Texas: Two-time AL champ better

with Darvish taking over for Wilson.

Detroit: Owner Mike Hitch more in­

tent on World Series than Stanley Cup.

San Francisco: Don't ignore a team

with pitching depth in rotation and pen.

L.A Angels, Anaheim: Will over­

spending on Pujols and Wilson pay off?

New York Yankees: Solid founda­

tion, but the age factor is surfacing.

Philadelphia: Strong rotation, but bull­

pen questions start with fading Papelbon.

Cincinnati: Rebound year with help

from addition of Mat Latos.

Toronto: Moneyball? Nope. Looking

to follow the Ray way to title.

Atlanta: The overlooked omission?

Retirement of scout Paul Snyder.

Arizona: Nobody builds a pitching

staff quicker than Kevin Towers.

Miami: Gambling financial future

of franchise on new stadium.

Boston: Changing of guard comes

at a time when rebuilding is needed.

Milwaukee: Loss of Fielder com­

pounded by scrutiny of Ryan Braun.

(15) St. Louis: Tough without bat of Pujols

and leadership of La Russa and Duncan.

(16) Colorado: Will young arms evolve

into solid rotation additions?

(17) Washington: Simply spending mon­

ey does not guarantee it is well spent.

(18) Minnesota: Return of GM Terry

Ryan underscores plan to refocus.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Hard to move

forward while ownership was in limbo.

Kansas City: Farm offers long-term

hope but not much short-term help.

Oakland: Tore apart one strength,

starting rotation, in latest retooling.

San Diego: Counting on money

from new TV deal to cure ills.

Chicago White Sox: Manager

Robin Ventura has limited exposure

since his playing days.

Pittsburgh: Facing completion of

two decades without a winning record.

Cleveland: Onetime poster boy for

building a franchise is stuck in a rut.

Seattle: False hope of two years ago

gives way to long-term reality.

Baltimore: Players change, but fail­

ures and ownership remain the same.

New York Mets: Big market but

small budget due to ownership ills.

Chicago Cubs: Quit looking for

short-term answer to long-term failure.

(30) Houston: There's no way to go but up

for new owner Jim Crane's franchise.

Evan Langoria

?avid Price

Joe Maddon

JoeyVotto

Roy Halladay Bruce Bochy

AL EAST: TAMPA BAY AL CENTRAL: DETROIT

AL WEST: TEXAS AL WILD CARDS: ANAHEIM, NEW YORK

AL PENNANT: TAMPA BAY

NL EAST: PHILADELPHIA NL CENTRAL: CINCINNATI

NL WEST: SAN FRANCISCO

NL WILD CARDS: ATLANTA, ARIZONA

NL PENNANT: CINCINNATI

TAMPA BAY