Pigskin Preview 2012

THE STARS, THE SPOILERS AHD THE DARK HORSES TAKE AIM FOR THE NATIOHAL TITLE '

s usual, the eggheads who run college sports—the same scholars who gave us a Big Ten with 12 teams, a Big 12 with 10 teams and a Big East that will soon include San Diego State and Boise State—have been hard

----- at work this off-season trying to improve the game, or more accurately,

squeeze more money out of student athletes. More conference realignment is in the works. At least the power brokers finally signed off on a championship playoff. Unfortunately, that four-team playoff (with teams chosen by a selection commit­tee) won't begin until 2014. So for two more years we'll have the convoluted Bowl Championship Series system—the one the Southeastern Conference has domi­nated, winning a staggering six national titles in a row. Maybe this is the season the streak ends. Vegas thinks so, making USC a three-to-one favorite. It's doubtful the Trojans would have been better than a 25-to-one pick had quarterback Matt Barkley jumped to the NFL early. Barkley says he has "serious unfinished busi­ness" left in college. Translation: It's national title or bust around Los Angeles.

THE TOP 25

OREGON

FLORIDA STATE

GEORGIA

MICHIGAN STATE

10 TCU

12 SOUTH CAROLINA

14 WISCONSIN

16 OHIO STATE

^STANFOI

18 MICHIGAN 10-3

(OKLAHO

20 NEBRASKA

TEXAS

EDAME

24 BYU

0

I USC: After two seasons in NCAA jail (thanks to Reggie Bush and his rule infractions) the Trojans are now free to play in the postseason and are primed to end the SEC's six-year run of national titles. The team was liberated at a perfect time: Golden boy Matt Barkley—the most polished player in the long line of star Trojan QBs— bypassed the NFL for one more year of college. Barkley has the country's best receiving tandem (Robert Woods and Marqise Lee), a 1,000-yard rusher (Curtis McNeal) and four returning starters on the offensive line. The defense also returns its top four tacklers. And no team will be hungrier than this one. That's a good thing, because the Trojans' 37-year-old coach, Lane Kiffin, has never won a bowl game and is just 3-6 all-time against top-25 teams, prediction: 14-0

LSU: The Tigers beat eight \ ranked teams last year, and only one of those opponents got within 12 points of them. Of course it was that ooponent, Alabama, that came back to

thump LSU in the BCS title game. LSU

is still loaded on defense (as usual). The Tigers lost two first-

rounders, but their defense

may be even better since the rest of the unit was so young last year. The big question is whether coach Les Miles can get some decent quarterback play. Tigers fans won't miss former starter Jordan Jefferson, but we'll see how

sharp Georgia castoff Zach Mettenberger is. He said he couldn't wait for Miles to flip him the keys to the offense, adding

that it would be like getting a Maserati when you turn 16. Word of caution, Zach: Don't drive it into a ditch like Jefferson did last Jan­uary, prediction: 12-2

Alabama: At 60, Nick Saban has clearly established himself as the best coach in the college game. Bama had gone 13-19 the previous four seasons in SEC play when he arrived. Under Saban the past four years, the Tide has won two national titles, with a 48-6 record, playing in the rough­est conference. The team plays smart and physical and, led by the nation's best offensive line, will continue to do so this fall. Quarter­back A.J. McCarron, who shredded LSU's vaunted defense in the title game, is also back. The downside? Saban has to replace four of his top five tacklers. prediction: 11-2

Q Oregon: The Oregon football brand has soared in the past five years thanks to edgy uniforms courtesy of Nike king Phil Knight (a proud alum) and the frenetic offensive system run by coach Chip Kelly. (Think a no-huddle offense on Red Bull.) These Duckies are no fluke. They have to replace their quarterback and starting tail­back, but Kelly has two triggermen (Bryan Bennett and Marcus Mariota) who are faster and have better arms than Darron Thomas. Kelly also has De'Anthony Thomas, a dazzling sophomore running back-wideout-return man who averaged a touchdown every eighth time he touched the ball last season. The Ducks also return most of their defense, including top tackier John Boyett. The bad news? They have to play at USC this year. prediction: 12-2

Oklahoma: Last year's preseason number one pick in both the coaches and AP polls proved to be a bigger flop than The Hangover Part II. The Sooners lost

at home to a Texas Tech team that didn't even make a bowl, lost to Baylor and got

i whupped 44-10 by Oklahoma State. It has been eight years since coach Bob

Stoops had a team finish in the top four, but he does have standout QB Landry Jones back and a more seasoned offensive line. Better still, Stoops's brother Mike returns to run the defense. The Stoopses have a lot of speed to work with on defense, and they're going to need it: The Sooners have to visit West Virginia and TCU, the Big 12's two most explo­sive teams, prediction: 11-2

Honda State: It has been nine years since the Seminoles finished in the top 10, but that doesn't stop the poll­sters from fawning over them in the off-season. FSU always looks the part, but the Noles have lacked discipline and leader­ship. So why might things be different this year? Quarterback EJ Manuel, a fifth-year senior, is a respected leader who has a dynamic group of receivers. The team also has arguably the fastest defense in the nation, with nine starters returning from what was the fourth-ranked defense in 2011. Oh, and the Noles' two archrivals, Miami and Florida, are in rebuilding mode. If third-year coach Jimbo Fisher can't have a break­through season now, he'll probably never have one with FSU. prediction: 12-2

West Virginia: The Mountaineers'

first year under offensive mastermind Dana Holgorsen was chaotic. But it

ended in spectacular fashion. The team blasted Clemson 70-33 in the Orange Bowl, and it looks as though Holqorsen is just

warming up. WVU dumped the Big East

for the tougher Big 12, and the timing of

the move is good. Holgorsen overhauled

the defensive staff, which settled some rocky team chemistry. "The biggest change is that everyone's

getting along with each other," said QB Geno Smith. Keep an

keye on Smith, a Heisman candidate with stud

receivers Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. If the defense, which has six starters back, can be decent, this is a good dark-horse national-title pick. At least they won't be bor­ing, prediction: 11-2

| Georgia: Longtime coach Mark Richt got himself off the hot seat last fall by winning 10 games, though the Dawgs didn't beat anyone good. They faced four top-15 teams and lost to all of them. NFL scouts love Georgia's personnel, especially on defense, where they ranked fifth in the coun­try. Their best player on defense—All-American linebacker Jarvis Jones, a USC transfer—is a potential top-10 pick. The team's leader is Aaron Murray, UGA's starting quarterback for the third year. He doesn't have ideal size, but he can move and makes good decisions. He also has a few gifted young tailbacks to lean on, but the offensive line is green. The best news in Athens? The schedule is as favorable as you can get in the SEC, meaning they avoid LSU, Alabama and Arkansas. The only top-20 team they'll likely face in the regular season is South Carolina, prediction: 12-2

Michigan State: The Big Ten doesn't have a legit national-title contender this year, but there are a handful of good teams. The Spartans—with eight of their top nine tacklers returning, including tower­ing defensive end William Gholston—are the best of the bunch. And they have some momentum, coming off an Outback Bowl win over Georgia—MSU's first postseason win in a decade. The Spartans are a traditional grind-it-out Big Ten offense, led by 238-pound sledgehammer tailback Le'Veon Bell and an experienced offensive line. Junior quarterback Andrew Maxwell replaces Kirk Cousins. Maxwell, a six-foot-three former high jumper, is a better athlete than Cousins. We'll find out midseason if he has the same poise when MSU plays a three-game stretch with back-to-back road trips to Michigan and Wisconsin before facing off against Nebraska. prediction: 12-2

J TCU: The Horned Frogs have won 47 I J games in the past four seasons, one fewer than Alabama. But with TCU's move from the Mountain West Conference to the Big 12, it has officially made the big time. The bad news: In February, four key players, including Tanner Brock, the linebacker pegged to be the leader of the defense, were snagged in a drug bust. Coach Gary Patterson immedi­ately booted them. Three were defensive starters. Now only five starters return on defense. The offense, though, should be even more explosive than it was in 2011, when TCU ranked ninth in scoring. Quarterback Casey Pachall and his crew of receivers now have some experience. Good thing. The Horned Frogs close the season playing Texas and then Oklahoma, against whom they are a combined 3-33 since 1968. prediction: 10-3

OFFENSE

QB: MATT BARKLEY. USC. Of all the Trojan QBs over the years, none has ever had a six-touchdown game. He had two in November.

RB: MONTEE BALL. Wisconsl

RB: KNILE DAVIS. Arkansas. A1,

injury, but he has his wheels back, clocking a team-best 4.33 seconds in the 40 in spring.

WR TAVON AISTIH, West Virginia. He Led the nation in all-purpose yards in 2011 with 198 yards per game.

WR: SAMMY WATKINS, Clemson. As a freshman in 2011, his ptaymaking heroics probably helped save coach Dabo Swinney's job.

TE: TYLEI EIFEIT, Notre Dame. His 63 catches for

categories and set school records. Not bad, considering Notre Dame'

OL: KIALED HOLMES, USC. The Trojans' 305-pounder had the highest percentage of knockdown blocks on the team, topping even Matt Katil, the left tackle who was the fourth overall pick in April's NFL draft.

OL: BARRETT JONES, Alabama. The 2011 Outland Trophy winner, Jones graded out higher than any

Tide lineman in almost every game, which is really saying something with this g.

OL: RICKY WAGNER. Wisconsin. The six-foot-six, 322-pound left tac is the latest model off the Badgers' assembly line of road-graders.

OL: CHANCE WARMACK. Alabama. Tide running backs rushed for more than 100 yards 12 times last year. Often ttaManJMBtodJWs 320-pound bruiser.

OL: H.J. FLUKEI, Alabama. So wonderfully imposing and agile at six-foot-six and 335 pounds, he makes even Nick Saban get mushy.

n

vv v i

DEFENSE

DE: WIUMM NIISIWH. Michigan Sta

round bust for the Jets. This six-foot-seven,

is a lot better.

DT: STAR LOTULELEI. Utah. The 320-pound Tongan lived up to his first name in 2011 by winning the Pac 12's award for best defensive lineman.

DT: KAWANN SIOII. Purdue. Its lead his team in passes broken up. 1

DE: JADEVEON CLOWHEY. So

forcing five fumbles, and he did

OLB: JARVIS JONES. Georgia. This USC transfer arrived in the SEC with a bang, sacking quarter­backs 13.5 times in 2011.

MLB: MANTI TE'B, Notre Dame. The! of the Butkus Award (which honors the

OLB: CIASE THOMAS. Stanford. H

thanks to his terrific pass-rushing m

OB: TYIANN MATIIEI. LSU. Nicknamed "Honey Badger," Mathieu took

everything but the national title last season. Now he's really pissed.

DB: DAVID AMEISON, NC State. At six-foot-thr

size. With 13 interceptions, he had five more thani

DB: ERIC IEID. LSU. He's the brains of the Tigers' defense. Reid's interception on what appeared to be a sure TD for Alabama was the play of the 2011 season

DB: NICKELL IIIEY, USC. At five-foot-eight, he doesn't have ideal size, but that didn't stop him from

locking up Notre Dame's towering star receiver Michael Floyd (an eventual first-rounder).

K: CALEB STIRCIS.F

and was perfect on ex

P: BIAD WING. LSU. This Australian import averaged more than 44

yards per punt with almost half his boots going down inside the 20.

KR: DE'ANTHONY THOMAS, Oregon. The nation's most explosive player, the 173-pound sophomore ran two kickoffs back for TDs in 2011.

COACH: NICK SABAN, Alabama. The best in the college game. The Tide had five players drafted in the top 35 and faces a brutal road schedule. But Saban will still produce a top-five team.