Playboy's NFL Preview

KICKING OFF THE LEAGUE S 93RD

SEASON—SCANDAL. HUGELY ANTICIPATED ROOKIES AND OUR SURPRISE PICK TO WIN IT ALL

; love stats. In these algebraic puzzles lie the answers to game's most pressing questions. As the NFL's 93rd season gets • under way, here are a few eye-openers. 0) It pays to be second best. It's been nine years since the best team in the regular season won the Super Bowl (the New England Patriots in 2003). The Green Bay Packers bulldozed 15 wins last season, then lost their first playoff game. The following teams all headed into the postseason in recent years with the best record and failed to win the Super Bowl: New England (14-2 in 2010; 16-0 in 2007), Indianapolis 04-2 in 2009 and 2005), Tennessee 03-3 in 2008), San Diego (14-2 in 2006) and Pittsburgh (15-1 in 2004). (2) There's a direct correlation in the NFL between tackling the quarterback and winning Lombardi Trophies. Six of the past eight Super Bowl cham­pions ranked in the top three in sacks. Today's NFL is all about the passer and the pass rush. (3) Speaking of passing, Tom Brady (who threw for an AFC-best 5,235 yards and 39 touchdowns last season) is 35. Only four quarterbacks have won Super Bowls at his age or older: Johnny Unitas at 37 (1971), Roger Staubach at 35 (1978), Jim Plunkett at 36 (1984) and John Elway back-to-back at 37 and 38 (1998 and 1999). Will Brady stock Just for Hen in his locker this year? Age hurts in the NFL. His rival Peyton Man­ning, who had career-compromising neck surgery last year, can relate. (4) Our final stat: the number zero. That's how many snaps two of the most exciting quarterbacks in the NFL have taken thus far-lndy's Andrew Luck and Washington's Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III. The NFL is a never-ending series of surprises, but this is always true: Even the great­est players get old, and there's never a dearth of new talent ready to fill the highlight reels. Let the games begin.

I

HBgianis

Big brother: one Super Bowl ring. Little brother: two!

PATRIOTS

A fourth Super Bowl ring would tie the record. At 35, does he have the gas?

HUH! colts I

The most exciting rookie QB in years. The next Manning or the next Ryan Leaf?

Born in Japan, RG3 was the second over­all draft pick-behind Andrew Luck.

IMEMBQbroncos

Can he come back after neck surgery? As a Bronco? lime for kickoff....

i The free-agent additions of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson give the BUFFALO BILLS some pass rush­ers. Things could get hot at Ralph Wilson Stadium this year.

\SM Who else? TOM BRADY. He was better at 34 in 2011 than he was when he won three Super Bowls in his 20s. The older he gets, the better Brady plays. He was 27-5 as a starter in his last two seasons-but 0-2 in his last two Super Bowls.

EH NEW ENGLAND once again. The schedule is light. The addition of wideout Brandon Lloyd gives Brady speed to stretch the defense, thus strengthening the dynamic tight-end duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The Patriots have the longest stretch of dominance in the NFL, with eight division titles in the past nine seasons. This season will be no different.

IMOlMii CINCINNATI. With ball hawk Dre Kirkpatrick the Bengals have added one of college football's slickest cornerbacks to an already top 10 defense. Will he be healthy? The Bengals will be hunting for their first back-to-back play­off seasons in 30 years.

GQ9 RAY RICE is the game's most complete running back. He led all AFC backs in receptions last season and finished second in the NFL in rushing yards. No wonder the Ravens signed him to a new $40 million contract.

HiHililBh'B The Steelers and the Ravens finished in a dead heat a year ago-one of the most exciting (and violent) rival­ries in any sport. The Ravens have likely lost Pro Bowl pass rusher Terrell Suggs for 2012 with an Achilles tendon injury. That gives the edge to the STEELERS.

ummer-long contract holdout spoiled the 2011 season of former 2,000-yard rusher Chris Johnson and his Titans. He's back, and so is TENNESSEE as a playoff contender.

CQ9 Houston's ANDRE JOHNSON is in the conversation with Detroit's Calvin Johnson as the best receiver in the NFL. The Texan wasn't healthy in 2011, and in Matt Schaub he has a quarterback with a rocket arm to get him the ball.

HiMiiawlJI The best team in Texas this year won't be Amer­ica's Team. It'll be the HOUSTON Texans. Schaub's Lisfranc injury kept the Texans from realizing how good a team they i could be in 2011—and yet they still made the playoffs. Like' Johnson, Schaub returns healthy for 2012. Coming off their first division championship, the Texans are in the hunt again.

l«l»m OAKLAND. An off-season program should give quarterback Carson Palmer the chance to get back up to speed as a playoff-caliber quarterback. The resurgence of star run­ning back Darren McFadden, injured for much of last season, gives Palmer an explosive weapon out of the backfield.

GQ9 PHILIP RIVERS is the only AFC quarterback to pass for 4,000 yards each of the past four seasons. At 30, the Charger still has plenty of tread left on his tires.

I SAN DIEGO. The 22nd-ranked defense gets a boost with three top draft picks. (Defensive end Melvin Ingram's arms are as big as fire hydrants.) If Rivers minimizes j his turnovers, the Chargers will again be the best in the West.'

LflUMJ

IEXANS

Ninety-eight

career TO passes

and counting.

DIVISION CHAMPIONSHIPS

PICK

Offlil when coach Mike Shanahan has a quarterback, he wins big. He won a Super Bowl as offensive coordinator of the 49ers in 1994 with Steve Young, then two more as head coach of the Broncos with John Elway. How quickly rookie Robert Griffin III progresses will determine how quickly the REDSKINS contend.

GQ9 LESEAN "SHADY" MCCOY. The Philadelphia running back's 20 touchdowns led the NFL last season, and his 1,309 rushing yards ranked second in the NFC. McCoy is to the NFC what Ray Rice is to the AFC.

Effiffl PHILADELPHIA. The Eagles were the only team in the NFL to rank in the top 10 in both offense and defense in 2011. The defense is better this season with the addition of linebacker DeMeco Ryans. QB Michael Vick still has the most horsepower in the division.

I In Matthew Stafford the DETROIT UONS have a quarterback capable of making a deep playoff run. And Stafford has Calvin Johnson, the best receiver in the NFL, in his arsenal. Youth and depth abound at Ford Field, and when rabid Detroit fans get behind a team, anything can happen.

MSA AARON RODGERS. Every major stat in 2011 was a career best for Rodgers, and his pass rating of 122.5 was an NFL regular-season record. Not only is Rodgers the best quar­terback in the division, he's the best quarterback in the NFL.

I The PACKERS managed to go 15-1 last season with the NFL's worst defense. Green Bay used its first six draft j picks to give that defense some teeth in 2012. As one draft critic I put it, "Once again, the Packers own the NFL draft." ^

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IffJHOKMii The CAROLINA PANTHERS expect a quantum leap from Cam Newton in 2012 after a banner rookie season. He passed for 4,000 yards in 2011 without really knowing what he was doing. Now he does.

CE29 DREW BREES. Now that he's a $100 million quarter­back, the Saints expect him to play like one.

HiHiiaBUa The SAINTS have a chance to become the first team to play a Super Bowl on their home field. Losing coach Sean Payton and linebacker Jonathan Vilma to suspension in Bountygate, plus Pro Bowl guard Carl Nicks to free agency, will suck some wind out of their sails, but make no mistake: This squad is still stacked with all-stars.

HH The SEAHAWKS signed quarterback Matt Flynn in free agency and traded for former Pro Bowl tight end Kellen Winslow to pump up the NFL's 28th-ranked offense. In this anemic division, Seattle will battle for a playoff spot.

GQ3 PATRICK WILLIS. Last season the 49ers fielded the best defense in the NFC and the most opportunistic defense in the NFL (38 takeaways). Willis is not only the top dog on this D but also the best linebacker in the NFL.

> The 49ERS should again win the West. The

S team reached the NFC title game with the NFL's 26th-ranked offense a year ago. Coach Jim Harbaugh stockpiled some weaponry, notably first-rounder A.J. Jenkins and free agent Mario Manningham on the flank.