Playboy's NFL preview

SURGING DARK HORSES, FADING DYNASTIES AND

OUR PICK TO WIN SUPER BOWL XLVIII

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ne Baltimore Kavens tielded the best team in the NFL in 2012. This off-season, the Ravens learned what so many Super Bowl winners already have: In the salary-cap era, it's nearly impossible to keep a champi­onship squad together. Eight starters are gone. No wonder the NFL hasn't seen a repeat champ since the 2004 Patriots. Who to keep your eye on in 2013? Start with Chip Kelly and his Eagles. The puppeteer of one of college ball's most dynamic offenses (Oregon), Kelly will bring his fast-paced game to the NFL. The Miami Dolphins, who haven't won a postseason game in 13 years, spent more than $200 million on contracts this year. The Dolphins doled out the off-season's largest free-agent contract (to receiver Mike Wallace) and two of the top 10 deals. Can they finally unseat the Pats in the AFC East? Last year a new generation of elite QBs emerged (see right). All eyes will be on the young guns again—R6III, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck. Heading into 2013, the NFL will feature a new toughest division. In the 1990s it was the NFC East; in the 2000s, the AFC North and AFC East. Now the NFC North reigns supreme. Chicago, Green Bay and Minnesota all won 10 games or more in 2012. The division features the game's best QB (Aaron Rodgers), best RB (Adrian Peterson, who had the second-best rushing season ever last year-on a tender knee), plus emerging QBs .at Detroit (Matthew Stafford) and Minnesota .(Christian Ponder). All that said, our money's on an aging arm to win . "frail this vear.-We'll give you a hint: His name is not Tom Bractv.

THE NEW GENERATION

OF ELITE NFL QBS

He set numerous rookie records while taking a 2-14 Colts team to an 11-5 finish.

His 26 TD passes and 489 rushing yards got the Seahawks to the playoffs. Not bad for a rookie.

3 COLIN KAEPERNICK

He came off the bench to lead the Niners to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1994.

The NFL's offensive rookie of the year returns to D.C.'s

FedExField. He can run, he can pass. But are RGIII's

ACL and LCL okay?

AFC

VicH

sura

GQ9 Who else? Tom Brady has won the past four AFC East titles under center.

QiLUIMB With no Wes Welker, no Aaron Hernandez and an ailing Rob Gronkowski, Brady has his work cut out for him. Still, you can't bet against Terrific Tom and the Pats. He's 36. The oldest quarterback to win a Super Bowl was John Elway, at 38. Can Brady grab a record-tying fourth ring before his clock runs out?

' fielded one of the youngest ^json, with a number of play-ifei New coach Rob Chudzinski and offensive and defensive coordinators t investment.

ImUIB A Super Bowl

players into great ones. Joe Flacco now has a new contract

and greater expectations.

HiHilMBlfflThp Ravens lost Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and six other starters. The Steelers lost James Harrison and Mike Wallace, and QB Ben Roethlisberger's health is suspect. We're going with the long shot: the Cincinnati Bengals, who are coming off a second straight playoff season and have a proven third-year QB in Andy Dalton.

MM Andrew Luck threw for a rookie-record 4,574 pass­ing yards in his NFL apprenticeship in 2012. Now Luck knows what he's doing.

I The Colts went to the playoffs last season

with a rookie quarterback, running back, tight end and wide receiver, turning a 2-14 team from 2011 into an 11-5 club. That skill is better now and so is Indianapolis. The bal­ance of power shifted in the South in the 2012 finale when the Colts beat the Texans in a must-win game for Houston.

lined up six Pro Bowlers on a o, and all those players are back in each in Andy Reid and an experienced quarterback in Alex Smith, this band of underachievers should start achieving.

llOifl Peyton Manning threw 37 TD passes a

AFC passing title a year ago. At 37 Manning will be an even

better quarterback with Wes Welker in his offense.

I The AFC West is weak, especially in Oakland

and San Diego. The Chiefs and Chargers have new coaches, the Raiders a new quarterback. There's too much chaos for anyone to compete with Manning and the Broncos.

Four old-school NFL franchises, all of them with multiple Super Bowl victories— the 49ers (five), Packers (four), Broncos (two) and Colts (two).

AFC

NFC

DENVER OVER INDIANAPOLIS

SAN FRANCISCO OVER GREEN BAY

uLlUIa The league's oldest starting quarterbacktakes on....

elite young guns.

It's age before beauty at New Jersey's MetLife Stadium on February 2 and an icy bucket of Gatorade over coach John Fox's head. See you there!

NFC

MM History has proven that when coach Mike Shanahan has a great running back, he wins games. Alfred Morris rushed for 1,613 yards as a rookie last season. He can be to the Redskins what Terrell Davis was to Shanahan's Super Bowl-winning Broncos of the 1990s.

H!Mil!iBl?B The Redskins won the division last year despite losing 75 games by starters due to injury, including 14 by Pro Bowl pass rusher Brian Orakpo. The Skins are healthy again. Week 17 at New York could tell the tale.

Lions lost eight games by one

s last season, including two in overtime. Keggie Bush will make Matthew Stafford a better quarterback. Free-agent safety Glover Quin and first-round pass rusher Ezekiel Ansah will put some claws in the Lions'D.

t Bart Starr, then Brett Favre and now Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have indeed been blessed. Rodgers has won back-to-back NFL passing titles.

HifJiliiBh'B in the toughest division in pro football right now, both Minnesota and Detroit will make playoff runs. But the NFL is a quarterback's game, and there is no better QB currently than Rodgers. The Packers will win the North for the third straight year.

lilSUB There have been six 5,000-yard passing seasons in NFL history, and Drew Brees has three of them. Plus a

Super Bowl ring.

EGH2B The NFC South is the only division since the NFL's realignment in 2002 without a consecutive title-holder. Tampa Bay has the best shot this go-round. Doug Martin's legs (he rushed for 1,454 yards as a rookie last season) will take the heat off Josh Freeman's arm and will also allow the Bucs to control the clock against the pass-happy Falcons and Saints.

mpion 49ers couldn't beat the lowly last season. That young St. Louis team is specially QB Sam Bradford. Bonus: a pair first-round picks in wide receiver Tavon Austin ckerAlecOgletree.

CQ9 We know 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick can run (he set a playoff record for a QB with 181 yards rushing against Green Bay last season). The addition of wide receiver Anquan Boldin will make him a better passer.

HifJSiaHlilThP 49ers finished five yards short of a Lombardi Trophy in February. With the additions of Boldin, defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey and kicker Phil Dawson, San Francisco will clip the Seahawks' wings once again.