NFL upsets happen. Dig nine of the biggest:
Admittedly, the above shockers went down during the postseason, a four-week period when the lights are far brighter than the previous four months. But those four months—a stretch that we in the sports industry refer to as “the regular season”—always have their fair share of bombshell wins and bewildering losses.
The 2024 NFL season will be no different. Here are 18 inexplicable victories and shocking defeats that will have some bettors dining at the French Laundry, and others diving into a bowl of shrimp ramen.
Week 1: Carolina Panthers 21 – @New Orleans Saints 14
The Saints swept the 2023 season series against their divisional rivals, but in the season’s second matchup—a 28-6 Saints smackdown—Carolina outgained New Orleans on the ground by a whopping 107 yards. Here, Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard goes off against a shaky Saints run defense, and QB Bryce Young improves upon his 66.6 career passer rating against New Orleans, leading to an Opening Week jaw-dropper.
Week 2: @New England 20 – Seattle 6
As of this writing, we don’t know who will be starting behind center for the Pats. Drake Maye? Jacoby Brissett? The ghost of Babe Parilli? One thing we do know, however, is that it’s a pain in the pooper for a team to fly 3,032 miles. We also know that Seattle managed just four road victories in 2023, so their extra mileage plus their consistently meh work outside of the Great Northwest equals a big game for Maye or Brissett. Or Parilli.
Week 3: @Los Angeles Rams 35 – San Francisco 49ers 27
Virtually every sportsbook lists the Niners among the Super Bowl favorites—FanDuel, for instance, has them tied with Kansas City atop said list at +600. The Rams, however, generally hover around the +3000 mark—plus L.A. has managed just one victory in their last eight meetings with their NFC West frienemies—so on paper, San Fran should dominate this one. That said, the Rams snuck by the Niners in last season’s finale, 21-20, and the trend, such as it is, continues.
Week 4: @Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 10
Heading into the season, the Eagles are among the league’s most enigmatic teams. Are QB Jalen Hurts and HC Nick Sirianni back on the same page? How will shiny new RB Saquan Barkley meld with Philly’s WR-centric offense? Can the D thrive without Haason Reddick? Dunno, dunno, and dunno, but we do know that Tampa’s stud WR duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are (for now) healthy, so a Bucs home win against the Eastern enigmas seems reasonable.
Week 5: Minnesota Vikings 24 – New York Jets 7 (London, England)
It’s the Sam Darnold Bowl, as the Vikings QB stares down the team that drafted him in 2018 before unceremoniously dumping him three years later. At Tottenham-Hotspur Stadium, Darnold gets his revenge, as old man Aaron Rodgers is sacked 6 times, while the Jets D is too jet-lagged (see what we did there?) to run with Minny’s All-World receiving twosome of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
Week 6: @New York Giants 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 20
With their revamped offense still melding, the Bengals lose a heartbreaker to the Jints, New York’s third consecutive win against Cincy. (It’s been repeated over and over, but we’ll say it again because we’re brave: Look for a breakout game from oft-maligned Giants QB Daniel Jones.)
Week 7: @Pittsburgh Steelers 35 – New York Jets 20
Remember what former Bear Justin Fields did to the Commanders last season in the Chicago/Washington October 5 prime time clash? We’re talking 4 touchdowns, 282 yards through the air, and a 125.3 QBR. Justin—who will supplant Russell Wilson as the Steelers’ starter by Week 3—should deliver an encore, proving that nationally televised night games are his happy place.
Week 8: @Cleveland Browns 10 – Baltimore Ravens 7
Since 2000, the Ravens have dominated Cleveland to the tune of 34 wins against 14 losses. That said, the hated rivals have split their last six games, so the Browns are (sort of) catching up—but Balto is +1000 to make the Super Bowl, while the Browns are +3500, so this will be a semi-unexpected W for the Ohioans.
Week 9: @Arizona Cardinals 24 – Chicago Bears 10
Thanks to the arrival of rookie phenom QB Caleb Williams, the Chicago brass, the team’s fan base, any number of NFL pundits, and HBO’s Hard Knocks view the Bears as one of the league’s sexier preseason stories. Coming off of a four-win season, the Cards are about as far from sexy as you can get…but Arizona finished 2023 ranked an impressive eighth in total yards allowed, and for at least one week, they’re able to put the clamps on an electric quarterback.
Week 10: @Washington Commanders 42 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17
By the time Week 10 rolls around, all of us will agree that the talent gap between the aforementioned Caleb Williams and his fellow rookie QB Jayden Daniels is slimmer than initially believed. Facing a pretty dang good Steelers D at Commanders Field, Daniels lights it up, kicking off a surprise Washington march to the postseason.
Week 11: @Bufffalo Bills 28 – Kansas City Chiefs – 27
So, um, why the eff isn’t this a prime time game? Buffalo and Kansas City have split their last four tilts, with the combined average margin of victory clocking in at a miniscule 4.0. All four of those games were thrillers, and this one will be no different. A career day from Buffalo QB Josh Allen and a full-throated performance from the Bills Mafia carry the AFC East stalwarts past the toasty-hot defending champs.
Week 12: Tennessee Titans 16 – @Houston Texans 14
The Titans are not expected to be good. The Texans are expected to be very good. But every so often, the stars align for an underdog, and that’ll be the case here, as Tennessee’s backfield duo of Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears takes advantage of a rare off-day from Houston’s scary, scary defense.
Week 13: @New England Patriots 24 – Indianapolis Colts 21
At this point in the season, it’s become apparent that Colts sophomore QB Anthony Richardson is really good at football. At this point in the season, it’s also become apparent that Pats rookie QB Drake Maye is just okay at football. But as has been said time and again, any given Sunday, amirite? Maye delivers the game of his young professional life, leading his team to a surprising last-second W.
Week 14: Chicago Bears 35 – @San Francisco 49ers 27
If the roster remains healthy, the Niners have a chance to steamroll their way through the NFC…but “steamroll” doesn’t translate to “go undefeated.” The Bears big three receiving corps of D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze rack up a combined 300 yards, as Chicago solidifies their Wild Card spot in a road stunner.
Week 15: @Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – New York Jets 17
In his two career games against the Jets, Jags QB Trevor Lawrence has thrown a grand total of zero touchdowns. He’s also thrown a grand total of zero interceptions, so that’s a push of sorts. But this game is in Florida, and Jacksonville has taken three of their last four against New York, so Lawrence has the tools and momentum to snatch victory from the jaws of the Jets.
Week 16: @Washington Commanders 30 – Philadelphia Eagles 28
Jayden Daniels balls out again as he continues his casual little stroll to the Pro Bowl, giving the Commanders a season sweep against their fellow NFC Easters. (Oh, did we not mention that Washington also upset Philly in Week 11? We didn’t? Well, they did.)
Week 17: @Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 13
A Christmas Day game telecast on Netflix is not normal, and a not-normal game should lead to a not-normal result, so here we are. That said, a Steelers win won’t be too much of a shock, as the Chiefs already clinched the best record in the AFC the week prior, so K.C. coach Andy Reid gives his QB/TE combo of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce gets a half-day at the office.
Week 18: Minnesota Vikings 31 – @Detroit Lions 27
The thing about the NFC North is that whenever there’s a divisional meeting, each team plays like 53 Tasmanian Devils, regardless of the standings or the month. Here in the final week of the season, the Vikings—who were eliminated from playoff contention three weeks before—decide they really don’t want the Lions to win the division, so they play like men possessed, sending Detroit to Wild Card purgatory.