Fridays typically belong to high school sports. However, this Friday (Sep. 6) is one for college football. Kicking off from Lake Michigan at 9 p.m. ET on FS1, Northwestern vs. Duke should be a hard-nosed affair. But which are the best bets to target?
One thing to consider when betting on this contest in Evanston, IL is that Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium is a temporary venue right on the lake. Early September is still pleasant on Lake Michigan; however, Friday’s game-time conditions are expected to be extremely windy.
As the marquee CFB game on Friday’s slate, let’s dive into the sharpest betting angles for Northwestern vs. Duke.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Game lines may shift upon publication.
Northwestern vs. Duke Prediction
Under 37.0 Points
Considering the rosters and inclement passing conditions, I love the under for my best bet in this college football game just outside Chicago.
Along with the Chicago Bears, NU has consistently proven that this area of the country is a tough place to complete passes. The Wildcats have averaged a meek 16.9 PPG over the past five years. In last week’s season opener, Northwestern escaped with a 13-6 home victory over Miami-Ohio.
The Blue Devils were building steam on the gridiron over the last few seasons, but Mike Elko subsequently took the head job at Texas A&M. From there, quarterback Riley Leonard also left Duke to play at Notre Dame.
Texas transfer Maalik Murphy is now under center for the Blue Devils. In Week 1, Murphy managed the offense to 26 points in a win versus Elon (FCS). Simply, I think he and Duke will have a tougher time scoring at NU. Also, Devils head coach Manny Diaz is a defensive mind rather than offensive.
In 2023, Northwestern cashed the under in 53.9% of games played. Until journeyman signal-caller Mike Wright shows me that he can truly elevate the Wildcats’ offense (and keep the fumbles to a minimum), I am on unders by the lake. Basically, don’t expect anything like last Thursday’s CFB primetime game in Colorado vs. NDSU.
Northwestern -2.5
In this battle of prestigious private universities, I’ll lay the 2.5 points on NU since it is still under a field goal at DraftKings. Additionally, ESPN Analytics gives Northwestern a 54.8% chance at victory for Friday’s tilt.
Wildcats head coach David Braun has improved the defense in recent campaigns. Trying to get back to its success from 2020, Northwestern surrendered 22.5 PPG to opponents last year. Going forward, NU has continuity on D.
Linebacker Xander Mueller (10.5 TFL in 2023) wreaked havoc a season ago for the Wildcats. Mueller added five tackles, one TFL and one pass defensed in last week’s win over Miami-OH. From there, Theran Johnson, Evan Smith and Devin Turner make up a talented secondary.
Given the gusty conditions coming off Lake Michigan, I see Northwestern’s defense giving trouble to Murphy and the Blue Devils. With a strange home-field advantage, I like the Wildcats to win by three or more points this Friday.
On ESPN’s current College Football Power Index of 134 FBS schools, Duke (63rd) is actually four spots ahead of NU (67th). However, home cooking is significant throughout Division I football—give me the ‘Cats to cover in Evanston.
Friday’s Notable CFB Schedule
7 p.m. ET: BYU at SMU (-11.5)
Total: 55.5
9 p.m. ET: Duke at Northwestern (-2.5)
Total: 37
Editor’s note: The advice provided by the author does not represent the views of Playboy. Taking any advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. Always use your own judgment when participating in sports betting. Still, for daily bettors, the best insight anyone ever gave me was to stay away from parlays.