Whether we like it or not, the Electoral College is the key for any presidential candidate to reach the White House. The popular vote is interesting and all that, but in 2024, 270 electoral votes are required to claim victory. With the bar set and the election fast approaching, who actually has the better odds between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump?
The surge in Electoral College betting interest coincides with an era where betting on sports and political events is booming. Not only are folks laying action on Sunday Night Football, but thanks to legal online trading markets like Kalshi, the public is betting on presidential Electoral College fixtures like a football point spread. Let’s take a deeper look.
Electoral College Betting
For those unfamiliar, each U.S. state carries a different electoral value that is correlated to that state’s population. When a candidate officially wins the election in said state, they are awarded that set value. (There are technical differences in Nebraska and Maine, but let’s leave those aside for now.)
There are 538 electoral votes total. In 2024, California carries the most electoral votes with 54; Alaska, Wyoming, Delaware, Vermont, the Dakotas and the District of Columbia are tied for the least with three votes each.
So, with winning each state serving as an “election touchdown” of sorts, what does the Electoral College betting market look like at Kalshi?
Similar to alternate spreads for a sports bettor, Kalshi offers several selections for each candidate to win. This includes everything from “Kamala Harris by 215 electoral votes or more” to “Donald Trump by 1-4” and vice versa.
Kalshi also offers implied probabilities for each of the market selections here. Currently, they assess the most likely outcomes to be “Trump by 65-104 electoral votes” (20%) and “Harris by 65-104” (16%). Of course, these chances are partially dependent on incoming money. Known as sharps or whale bettors, huge wager sums on one side can temporarily sway the numbers (line movement).
Speaking of which …
Beware Market Manipulation
Kalshi is both legal and U.S.-based, which means the United States government has a strong hand in its regulation. However, there are various digital betting shops that avoid these strict regulations by operating internationally, such as Bovada, PredictIt and Polymarket.
As a word to the wise, tread lightly and use caution if placing wagers with offshore operators, whether on the Electoral College or any other election prop. Due to a lack of government oversight, these markets are at greater risk of betting manipulation.
In 2024, there are no shortage of shady characters with deep pockets. If one of these individuals wants to sway public perception toward thinking a specific candidate is largely ahead, that would be relatively easy at smaller, offshore shops.
Issues around conflict of interest arise when proper government regulation is absent. For example, Polymarket — a fast-growing online operator — recently took $70 million in funding from Peter Thiel, according to Forbes. Thiel is a close confidant and colleague of vice-presidential candidate JD Vance.
There is also reason to think that Elon Musk might be having his own sway on the action at Polymarket. Over the weekend, Musk sent several social media posts pertaining to pro-Trump movement in Polymarket’s odds and probabilities. More than a few tongues are wagging on X about Musk and whether he has skin in the game.
With November 5 fast approaching, play close attention to how these markets correlate to trends around Harris vs. Trump and use caution when choosing a betting operator. Please ensure that you are registered to vote!