Playboy's Pro Football Preview

Professional football may be the most perfect form of show business ever invented. While movies, TV and stage productions are plotted and scripted weeks or months in advance, in the N.F.L. the outcomes of races and games are as much of a surprise to the participants as they are to the audiences. Who would have guessed a year ago that the Oakland Raiders and the Philadelphia Eagles would wind up in the Super Bowl, or that Jim Plunkett would be everyone's player of the year? Hell, we didn't even know the casts of characters in last year's play-offs until the final weekend of the regular season.

Such dramatics are orchestrated by some of the brightest entertainment professionals in the world. They're the guys who catch you off guard in the dog days of summer by planting those news stories from training camp. They get you in the mood by extending the foreplay--in the form of ever-earlier preseason games. And when they've got you hooked, they don't let go--they give you football and more football. Sunday, Monday and sometimes Thursday, week after week, until you look up and you're already into a new year.

But even those guys couldn't spin such dramatics out of thin air. Their secret is simply a great balancing act--a balance of power among the N.F.L. teams that's unmatched in any other form of competitive sport. Such equality is engineered via a number of rules and operating procedures that would be impossible in a less tightly organized league.

The most obvious of those equalizing factors is the annual draft of college talent, in which the previous year's worst teams get first choice of the new talent. But that advantage has real meaning only in the initial rounds. After that, cagey scouting and sheer luck are the main factors. The waiver system--whereby players cut by talent-laden teams can be picked up by thinner squads--also helps the evening-out process.

A less obvious (to fans) but often more effective balancing mechanism is something called position scheduling, an idea dreamed up a few years ago by New York Jets president Jim Kensil, then an N.F.L. official. It programs the various teams' nondivision schedules so that the winningest teams from the previous season are matched against one another this year, and ditto for the weaker squads. As expected, the losers love the idea; many of the stronger franchises dislike it intensely.

"There isn't that much difference between the weak and strong teams that you need to handicap the schedules," says Jim Finks, general manager of the Chicago Bears. "And, in fact, the system is often counterproductive. A basically strong team can have a really bad year because of luck or injuries; then next year, when they're back to normal, they find themselves playing a much weaker schedule. Also, it's often unfair to the public. It's been ten years now, for example, since Bears fans have had a chance to see the Pittsburgh Steelers play here in Chicago.

"Position scheduling is just another attempt to placate the television moguls, who, after all, want to make their programing schedules as exciting as possible. And television money is our lifeblood. None of the N.F.L. teams could operate on anywhere near our present level without it. But we have to make certain that we don't lose control of professional football to the network programers. Television executives aren't telling us (continued on page 188)Pro Football Preview(continued from page 146) how to run our franchises--yet."

But position scheduling makes for exciting games and exciting games make for good showbiz. I'm betting that the N.F.L. entertainment moguls won't change a thing as long as they've got a hit on their hands.

And speaking of hits, let's give the dial a spin and see what excitement the various franchises have planned for us this year.

A year ago, the New York Jets were being touted by Jimmy the Mouth and other visionaries as possible Super Bowl contenders. Instead, they won only four games. The nose dive was largely caused by injuries to receiver Wesley Walker and runner Clark Gaines, whose replacements were inadequate. Youth and inexperience were also liabilities, as was an unimaginative offensive strategy. Fortunately, the franchise is stable. Owner Leon Hess doesn't believe that firing the coaching staff is the answer to all problems. His patience should pay off this season, because the young Jets will benefit vastly from last year's grueling experience and 1980--198l's emasculating injuries are not likely to be repeated. Best of all, last April's draft was a bonanza for the Jets. Superstuds Freeman McNeil and Marion Barber will bring enviable depth to the running corps. Four new defensive players (tackle Ben Rudolph, linebackers Al Washington and John Woodring, and end Tyrone Keys) will make big contributions their first year. Surviving last season's adversity should also give quarterback Richard Todd more mental toughness and confidence under fire.

All in all, we think this is the year the Jets will finally make it big. They might even be a Super Bowl contender.

Boston was frustration city last fall. Summer camp's great expectations faded into a maddening series of narrow misses--games were lost by tipped passes, untimely fumbles and other inexplicable occurrences common to snake-bitten teams. One assistant coach said causticly, "With our luck, we'll finally be in the Super Bowl next year--in Pontiac, Michigan." Also contributing to the Patriots' failure to make the play-offs were unremarkable punting and an inept pass rush from a defensive line that has grown long in the tooth. The draft brought little hope of solution for either problem.

The Patriots' major strength is the passing game. Summer camp will feature a healthy battle for the quarterback job between Steve Grogan and Matt Cavanaugh. The winner will again benefit from excellent pass protection, and receivers Harold Jackson and Stanley Morgan may be the best pair of targets east of Pittsburgh.

Patriot owner Billy Sullivan and general manager Bucko Kilroy have had the good judgment to maintain a sense of stability in the franchise--Kilroy was with Dallas long enough to learn that lesson. When rumors were circulating near season's end that coach Ron Erhardt would be fired if the Pats didn't make the play-offs, Erhardt's contract was extended before the issue was even settled, owner Sullivan making the announcement at the franchise Christmas party. That's class.

The Buffalo fans can hardly wait for football season to begin. Their enthusiasm has become epidemic because the Bills, a nondescript team the past ten years, suddenly emerged last season, winning 11 games and losing out in the play-offs in the game with San Diego in the final minutes. Head coach Chuck Knox is the principal reason for the Bills' new excellence. He has done a nearly miraculous job of rebuilding the Buffalo team in only three years, primarily with perspicacious draft choices. The squad is still dangerously vulnerable to injuries, however, with dependable players only one deep at almost every position. Most of this year's draft choices were expended on players who can make immediate contributions, fullback Booker Moore being the likeliest prospect to make a big splash his first year.

If the Bills make it to the play-offs, the whole city of Buffalo will hyperventilate, and Knox, already a major folk hero in Upstate New York, will be canonized. But we doubt if the Bills can again have such good luck in avoiding key injuries.

Miami coach Don Shula will run a hell-for-leather training camp this summer. He was less than pleased with last year's break-even record, a disaster he blames largely on the mellow attitudes of some of his players. He vows to get their attention in meetings and work their butts off on the practice field.

Last year's problems were not all a matter of player apathy. A number of new starters had to be broken in, the best of whom was sensational quarterback David Woodley, an eighth-round draft choice who was the surprise rookie in the league. Woodley, who captured the imagination of the Miami fans (they even cheered him when he made normal rookie mistakes), will profit much from a year's experience. Veteran Bob Griese will be waiting in the wings and could recapture the job if his injured shoulder is fully healed.

The Dolphins' major shortcomings are a sorry running attack and a dawdling pass rush. Draftees David Overstreet and Andra Franklin should solve the former problem and rookie defensive ends Ken Poole and Mack Moore should help the rush.

The losing scenario remains the same in Baltimore, but the reasons are different. Diehard Colt fans (there aren't many left) have long felt that if quarterback Bert Jones could ever beat the injury jinx, their team would gallop back into the play-offs. Jones stayed healthy last fall and the offense was further strengthened by the flashy running of rookie Curtis Dickey--but the defense collapsed, largely due to inept play by the front four.

Top-grade defensive linemen are rarely available in the trade market and are almost as rare in the draft, but coach Mike McCormack will try to heal the breach this fall with rookie Donnell Thompson.

The Colts' continuing mediocrity is the final unpleasantness in a long and acrimonious divorce between the Baltimore franchise and fans--a love affair that had been the envy of other clubs. The bitterness began in the early Seventies with the autocratic methods of then--general manager Joe Thomas and has been exacerbated by the imperious behavior of current owner Robert Irsay. The latter's overt attempts to move his franchise to another city because of declining attendance in Baltimore (alienating the fans) will likely be nixed again by the other N.F.L. owners, thus forcing him to sell out. "Irsay has never contributed anything to the league since he's been in it," another owner told us. "We would be better off without him."

When the Pittsburgh Steelers failed to reach the heights commonly predicted for them last fall, most observers ascribed the fall-off to the inroads of age. A more likely explanation is that they had gotten too fat. Said quarterback Terry Bradshaw after the Steelers' season-ending letdown: "It's good for us. We needed this. Everybody pats you on the back and all of a sudden you start believing it."

An indication of the Steelers' class is the fact that they didn't cop a plea by blaming the avalanche of injuries that plagued them all season. Age, of course, has become a problem. More than a dozen Steelers are in their 30s, products of superb draft crops in the early Seventies, and those nuggets are getting a bit tarnished by time. Also, older players (even when they are in good shape) are more susceptible to injury. Pittsburgh needs youngsters who can eventually take over for the aging veterans (especially in the defensive-line and running-back positions), but none of this year's draftees looks like an immediate threat to the veterans.

The passing game will again be awesome. Bradshaw is the Steelers' only truly indispensable player. Backup quarterback Cliff Stoudt, in fact, is the only player in N.F.L. history to have qualified for his pension without ever playing a down in a regular-season game. Says Bradshaw, "They'll write us off this year. But we'll be the underdogs, and we'll start blowing them out again."

The Cincinnati Bengals have been a team on the verge of greatness for many years. This could be the season when everything falls into place, thanks largely to the presence of coach Forrest Gregg, a General Patton type who has brought the hard-nosed discipline so badly needed by the Bengals since the retirement of Paul Brown. Gregg is tough but fair, and his troops have developed a Spartan dedication that will breed success. A player who asked us not to identify him says, "Forrest Gregg is like E. F. Hutton. When he talks, you goddamn sure better listen."

For several years now, the Bengals have been loaded with excellent but inexperienced talent. Unfortunately, the management has had a penchant for retiring or trading away the mature veterans, leaving a leadership void. But the front office has learned from its mistakes and is now determined to let the talented youngsters mature--while keeping some oldsters around who will lead by example. Quarterback Jack Thompson, in his third year, looks to us like the Jim Plunkett of the future. Anthony Munoz, only in his second season, may already be the best offensive lineman in the country.

The Bengals' draft crop contained several choice selections. Most likely to make immediate contributions are receivers David Verser and Cris Collins-worth and kicker Rex Robinson.

Cleveland fans still suffer recurring nightmares about last season. The Browns seemed to be a team guided by the angels. There were amazingly few injuries and unexpected good fortune seemed to descend upon them just when they needed it most. Despite a dearth of top offensive talent and a defense that gave up more yardage than the Italian army, everything seemed to work for the Browns. Then a dumb call at the end of the A.F.C. championship game with Oakland scuttled the whole season.

For the past two years, the Browns have been a favorite team of TV network officials, because all their games seemed to go down to the wire. Of the 33 games they've played in the past two years, 25 were decided in the last minute.

The Browns' passing attack, with quarterback Brian Sipe, three quality receivers (Dave Logan, Reggie Rucker and Ozzie Newsome) and a superb offensive line, will again be potent, but the defensive line sorely needs reinforcement. Two rookie linemen, Mike Robinson and Ron Simmons, will probably be starters the first time they put on their uniforms.

When extremely popular Houston Oiler coach Bum Phillips was fired by owner Bud Adams at the end of last season, a shocked public was treated to reams of copy in the national press theorizing about the real reasons for the dismissal. It was noted that Adams tends to resent any of his employees' getting too much adulation from public and press--that his workers are merely serfs and all credit should rightly go to him. The Oilers' flaccid and unimaginative offense (resulting from Phillips' refusal to hire an offensive coordinator) was, the stories read, only a lame excuse for the abrupt firing. What the press did not report was the fact that Adams' plantation mentality is even more pronounced than anyone who doesn't work for him can imagine. An Oilers front-office worker explained to us--after insisting on anonymity--that Adams is deeply affronted and infuriated when any employee tries to quit. When a worker wants to leave to accept a better job elsewhere, our informant told us, Adams will raise his salary to an unreal level in order to keep him. Then he treats the employee with disdain, watches him like a hawk and fires him as soon as the smallest excuse can be found. It was obvious to everyone in the front office that Phillips and Adams disliked each other intensely and that Phillips would quit next year, when his contract expired. That was an eventuality Adams could not tolerate.

But there were other, more realistic problems that rarely, if ever, surfaced in the press. Phillips had begun to lose the respect of many of his players because he had brought in some "problem children" to replace some "good behavior" types who the coach felt had less talent. Phillips had built a reputation for taming previously uncontrollable players and thought he could do it with any free-spirited castoff from another team. His players especially resented the arrival of Hollywood Henderson and his attention-hogging antics.

The event that finally triggered the firing of Phillips was apparently never mentioned in the press. The day after the play-off loss to Oakland, Adams was on the phone to other league owners, informing them that many of the Oilers had been up the night before the game until three, socializing with the Bay Area's leading party girls--old friends of quarterback Ken Stabler. Phillips' almost total lack of disciplinary control of his players had made his position untenable, and Adams had a reason to fire him.

Obviously, new Oilers coach Ed Biles's first priorities will be to instill a tough no-nonsense regime, calm down or get rid of the flakes on the squad and install an imaginative offense that can score touchdowns without depending entirely on Earl Campbell to carry the load. There isn't much apparent help from the draft.

The early choices of the San Diego Chargers in last April's draft astonished everyone--they chose help where they seemed to need it least. Although the Chargers already have one of the league's most productive offenses, they picked three of the draft's better offensive players, runners James Brooks and Amos Lawrence, and tight end Eric Sievers. The squad's major weakness, the linebacking corps, got little discernible support. Head coach Don Coryell, an offense addict, is depending on new defensive coordinator Jack Pardee to fix the defensive problems by giving the team more versatility and imagination than it had last year. The front four is already one of the better lines in the country, and rookie defensive back Irvin Phillips will shore up the secondary. If Pardee can solve the linebacker problems, the Chargers defense can give the explosive attack platoon enough help to take the team to the Super Bowl. We have a hunch that is exactly what will happen.

Oakland owner Al Davis is a maverick, a troublemaker, a compulsive competitor--and a genius. He is despised by other owners, resented by commissioner Pete Rozelle and the object of the wrath of Raiders fans. Never in the history of spectator sports has one man's personality so dominated a team. The Raiders are surly and boastful in taverns and they're pillaging vandals on the field. The sheer ferocity of their play makes up for whatever skills may be lacking.

Davis' genius is reflected not only in his ability to motivate his team but also in his uncanny judgment of player talent. Last year, he brought in 19 new players--whom he obtained for practically nothing--who helped turn a fading football team into a Super Bowl champion. Who else but Davis could have taken a has-been Jim Plunkett and, with understanding and patience, turned him into the nation's best quarterback?

Davis' canny trading skills also produced four picks in the early rounds of last April's draft, bringing in a much greater infusion of new talent than any Super Bowl champion could normally expect. Two of the newcomers, defensive back Ted Watts and offensive lineman Curt Marsh, should be immediate starters.

The Seattle team's fortunes last fall were the classic fulfillment of Murphy's law--everything that could go wrong, indeed, did. The early-season loss of tailback Sherman Smith left virtually no running game, so opposing defenses spent the season making life miserable for quarterback Jim Zorn. A sub-par offensive line made the situation even worse. Despite Zorn's heroics and a much-improved--but usually exhausted--defense, the 4--12 record was a serious setback to Seattle fans' expectations of an imminent Super Bowl contender. Fortunately, the Seahawks' owners and management are refreshingly enlightened. Realizing that long-term stability (à la the Dallas Cowboys) is the only way to build a winning franchise, they gave coach Jack Patera a new five-year contract at season's end. Their patience will probably be rewarded this season, because the fledgling franchise is reaching maturity and last's year's inexplicable misfortunes (the Seahawks lost five games in the three last minutes) aren't likely to be replayed this year. Also, the lousy won-lost record has brought an easier schedule and favorable draft choices. At least one of those choices, defensive back Kenny Easley, will make a big contribution his first year. Another newcomer, David Hughes, will give the Seahawks much-needed help for Sherman Smith in the backfield.

Everything's up to date in Kansas City. The Chiefs had their first non-losing season since 1973 last fall, finishing strong with a young squad that can only get better. The major reason for the Chiefs' rise from the pits is the expertise of coach Marv Levy, who has done a nearly miraculous job of assembling a respectable squad with free agents, low draft choices and waiver refugees. Last season's roster included 21 players who were castoffs from other training camps.

Another Chief reason for improvement was the development of quarterback Steve Fuller and the emergence of backup passer Bill Kenney. Too bad the rest of the offensive platoon was bad news--the Chiefs finished dead last in the league in total offense. The major priorities in summer-training camp will be to find a top-grade runner and reinforce a limp offensive line. Rookie Joe Delaney could help with the legs and new tackle Roger Taylor will help the line play. The Chiefs also desperately need a quality tight end, and the draft brought two prime candidates, Willie Scott and Marvin Harvey.

The news for the Denver franchise is good, so-so and disastrous. For beginners, this will be the 12th consecutive season of sold-out games. Also, the Broncos had a break-even season last year but missed the play-offs for the first time since 1976. Finally, the franchise has a new owner, 38-year-old Edgar Kaiser, a Canadian industrialist on an ego trip whose principal skill is inheriting vast amounts of money. Shortly after buying the Denver club, Kaiser fired Red Miller (the only Denver coach who ever got to the play-offs), much to the astonishment and horror of Bronco fans. He then hired Dan Reeves on the presumption that Reeves could bring with him some of the Dallas Cowboys' winning magic.

The Broncos' major problem is being in the same division with San Diego and Oakland. Their major needs are reinforcement at running back and receiver, but the draft was a bust for those purposes. Rookie quarterback Mark Herrmann, a fourth-round pick, could turn out to be the steal of the 1981 draft.

Last season was supposed to be an off year for the Dallas Cowboys, remember? The legendary Roger Staubach had retired and many of the remaining troops were getting long of tooth. But new starting quarterback Danny White stepped into the breach, was brilliant at reading defenses and the Cowboys just missed making it to the Super Bowl. With another year's maturity, White should be even more impressive this fall.

The only Dallas weakness is the young secondary, which got burned frequently last season. The Cowboys also need to find a high-powered fullback to relieve nine-year veteran Robert Newhouse, and the defensive unit needs fresh blood to spell some of the aging veterans. As usual, the Cowboys' draft was more productive than casual observers would suspect. Offensive tackle Howard Richards is the only apparent golden nugget, but buried in the late draft choices (and the horde of free agents that always show up at pre-season camp) are a number of probable future All-Pros. Player personnel director Gil Brandt could probably tell us who they are, but he won't. Wait until January and find out, when you see the Cowboys in the Super Bowl.

The Philadelphia Eagles are a team with more dedicated hard workers than superstars. Their intensity is injected by coach Dick Vermeil, himself a prototypal workaholic. Vermeil may find it difficult to drive his charges to Super Bowl heights again this season, because the adrenaline supply could be running out. The squad peaked at midseason last fall and lost three of its last four games, and the Super Bowl experience was a real downer.

One favorable omen for this fall is that last year's success was attained despite an off year (mostly due to injuries) for many of the Eagles' better players. Other pluses are Ron Jaworski, who has matured into the best quarterback in the National Conference, and a defensive platoon that is one of the best in the league.

The Eagles' draft harvest was relatively lean. Only defensive end Leonard Mitchell has much of a chance to break into the starting line-up. Unless some pleasant surprises show up in training camp, the Eagles' roster will be much the same as a year ago.

With a bit of good luck (for a change), the Giants could be the most-improved team in the league. At the very least, last autumn's nightmare (in which 35 players spent some time on the injured reserve list) shouldn't be repeated. The squad room looked like a M*A*S*H medical unit much of the season. One week, a house painter (Joe McLaughlin) was summoned from Wisconsin on Tuesday, practiced three days and started against the Cowboys the following Sunday. Another stopgap linebacker, Kevin Turner, entered a late-season game and had to introduce himself in the defensive huddle. One major element of hope for the future is the emergence of second-year quarterback Scott Brunner, who showed both poise and potential under much pressure last fall. The Giants' most glaring offensive weakness has been the lack of a truly excellent runner. Rookie Clifford Chatman could fill the bill. The prime catch of the draft was linebacker Lawrence Taylor, an intimidator who, with rookie tackle Bill Neill, will give the defensive unit a much-needed shot in the armor.

Another happy harbinger is the patience and understanding with which New York fans and front-office functionaries have supported coach Ray Perkins and general manager George Young. "The losing will stop," promises Perkins with the grim demeanor of someone who has survived a holocaust. The mettle and determination of the squad have also been hardened by adversity. With their infusion of talent from the draft, look for the Giants to be one of the surprise teams of the year.

The first priority of new Washington coach Joe Gibbs is to inject more vigor into an unimaginative and unproductive offense. Gibbs surely has the skills to do that job, having coordinated the explosive San Diego offense a year ago. His main problem will be the lack of sufficient manpower. A weak offensive line will be considerably strengthened by three rookies: tackle Mark May, center Russ Grimm and guard Gary Sayre. The improved pass protection, plus a more inventive and versatile attack, should permit Redskins quarterback Joe Theismann (who has spent his entire career under defensively oriented head coaches) to fully exploit his skills at last. The numerous other 'Skins veterans are also pleased by the new regime. Former coach Jack Pardee almost completely lost control last year. Some players were sullen and rebellious in team meetings, others showed up late for practice and veterans were appalled at the lack of discipline. The immediate future of the Redskins, therefore, depends not only on finding fresh talent for a thin and aging squad but also on re-establishing team discipline and morale. It won't be easy.

Jim Hanifan's first season as coach of the St. Louis Cardinals was an eye opener. Among other cruel lessons, he learned how much an uncommon number of injuries can incapacitate an already shallow squad. Hanifan's main goal in pre-season drills is to develop depth.

In four straight games during the middle of last season, the Cards outplayed their opponents in the first half, then got blown out in the second half because of their lack of manpower and experience. Fortunately, all the time logged last year by the backup players will ameliorate the maturity problem. Also, the running-back corps is loaded, with Ottis Anderson the best of the lot. The Cardinals' primary need is another top-grade receiver to team with Pat Tilley. Quarterback Jim Hart presents another problem. He is approaching the twilight of his career, and an adequate replacement must be found and trained as soon as possible. Rookie receiver Steve Rhodes will help solve the first problem and new quarterback Neil Lomax appears to be the ideal understudy for Hart. The big catch of the St. Louis draft, however, was linebacker E. J. Junior, who could be an All-Pro in a couple of years.

Minnesota is matched only by Dallas as a stable franchise. The Vikings take much pride in that fact and intend to stay that way. That's why the coaching staff, press and fans don't go into hysterics during off years. Coach Bud Grant is a tower of stability. His cool presence prevents others from panicking.

Last fall, the Vikings seemed a year away from regaining respectability; but by midseason, everything began falling into place and they now look like a team of the immediate future. A principal reason for optimism is the constant improvement of young quarterback Tommy Kramer.

The Vikings' biggest need is for another quality runner to go with Ted Brown--when Brown was on the side lines last year, the running game virtually disappeared. Draftee Jarvis Redwine is the prime candidate to fill the spot. Another rookie, receiver Mardye McDole, could also be an instant starter. Look for the Vikings to be back in the thick of the Super Bowl race next December.

The Chicago Bears were snake-bitten last season by improbable game breaks and incompetent officiating. "It was the most bizarre season of my life," coach Neill Armstrong told us. "But that's no excuse. All teams get bad breaks and wrong calls. A winning team is good enough to overcome them. We weren't."

The Bears weren't far from success, though, losing six games by a touchdown or less. The draft brought in the squad's most vital reinforcements: (1) superb offensive tackle Keith Van Horne, whose presence will permit veteran Ted Albrecht to move to guard; (2) devastating linebacker Mike Singletary; (3) defensive backs Todd Bell and Reuben Henderson, to shore up a leaky secondary; and (4) gem-quality receiver Ken Margerum, to give more potency to a lethargic passing attack. The latter cause will be helped by a new offensive coach, Ted Marchibroda, and the continuing development of quarterback Vince Evans. With better luck and better officiating, this could be a big year in Chicago.

There's a giddy optimism in Detroit as September approaches. Two seasons ago, the Lions were the worst team in the N.F.L. Then, last year, they barely missed qualifying for the play-offs with a young team that can only improve with added savvy and some fine tuning by coach Monte Clark. The biggest injection of vigor last fall came from superrookie Billy Sims, who more than lived up to grand expectations by setting several club rushing records. Another rookie, kicker Eddie Murray, also made a big splash, and quarterback Gary Danielson made a quantum leap toward fulfilling his great potential.

Best of all, there is a strong sense of kinship and belonging among the Detroit players, a bond born of long-suffered adversity.

The key ingredient to the impressive rebirth of the Lions is the leadership and canny coaching of Clark. If he isn't undercut by front-office types, Clark will turn the Lions into a Super Bowl contender--perhaps this season. Inept management and benumbed ownership have kept the Lions wallowing in mediocrity for many years. It would be a shame to see a superb coach like Clark scuttled by petty office functionaries.

The Lions' schedule is much tougher this fall (a result of last year's impressive record), but the draft brought some important help. The newcomers most likely to see lots of action this fall are wide receivers Mark Nichols and Tracy Porter, plus defensive end Curtis Green.

Complacency killed the Tampa Bay team last fall. In '79, the Buccaneers were boasting about going "from worst to first," but they nearly turned that catchy phrase around a year later. Coach John McKay has vowed to do some world-class ass kicking in the pre-season drills. The Tampa sports press has also been rubbing salt in the players' ego wounds. So the Bucs will probably play with the intensity of two seasons ago. If the running backs can learn to block for one another, and if the defense can be rejuvenated by prime rookies Hugh Green and John Holt, this could be a much happier autumn in Tampa. Fortunately, the schedule is less intimidating than a year ago.

The Buccaneers' major assets continue to be quarterback Doug Williams (who is only beginning to reach his peak) and splendid young receivers Gordon Jones and Kevin House. They and the young offensive line will all profit this fall from added maturity.

It's the same old depressing story in Green Bay--the Packers are still in the beginning stages of a seemingly interminable rebuilding process, trying to recover from the empty shell coach Dan Devine left when he moved south to South Bend in 1975. The agony and frustration have finally driven players, management, fans and the press to the breaking point. Several ugly fistfights broke out on the practice field and in the locker room last season. Coach Bart Starr, once considered a messiah, has been stripped of his general-manager status and is suitably embittered. Packer fans, once paragons of diehard loyalty, enjoy rooting for opposing teams, and the press has turned hostile.

This season doesn't promise to be much better. The draft brought some much-needed new blood, but promising rookie quarterback Rich Campbell must be groomed for future seasons. Of more immediate help will be tight end Gary Lewis and punter Ray Stachowicz. The draft, unfortunately, produced little help in the defensive backfield, where help is needed most.

This will be a pivotal year in Green Bay. Either the team will show some marked improvement or the whole franchise will once again be turned inside out and there'll be another new beginning.

Atlanta was the surprise team in the National Conference last fall, finishing with an unprecedented (for the Falcons) 12 wins and tying Dallas and Philadelphia for the best record in the National Conference. The future appears to be even brighter, because the Falcons are one of the youngest teams in the league. In only two years, the running game has gone from one of the worst to one of the best, thanks largely to fullback William Andrews and halfback Lynn Cain. The passing game, built around quarterback Steve Bartkowski, is explosive and getting more so. The Falcons still need a substantial backup for Bartkowski (a commodity that did not materialize in the draft), plus offensive-line depth and reinforcements for the defensive secondary. Because of the latter need, draftees Bobby Butler and Scott Woerner have the best chances of breaking into the starting line-up their rookie year.

Best prospect for the Falcons' future is the attitudinal situation. The players are still hungry for victory and want desperately to bring a big winner to Atlanta, which only a few years ago was known as the city of losers.

Last year was a bitter disappointment for Los Angeles fans. Never, perhaps, in the convoluted history of professional football has a poisonous psychological situation so undermined the fortunes of a team. It all began when owner Georgia Frontiere laid half of Fort Knox on rookie Johnnie Johnson, and the result was predictable--the veteran stalwarts of the squad got their noses out of joint because they were getting pay checks that were only a fraction of that of a newcomer who had never played a down. The morale problem was never fully resolved, and what should have been a Super Bowl year turned into a late-season bust. This year could be even worse unless some herculean strides are made in management-worker relations.

On the field, the Rams suffer from disastrous special-teams ineptitude, quarterback instability and continuing don't-give-a-shit player attitudes. Coach Raimondo Giovanni Giuseppe Baptiste Malavasi used the draft to beef up the defensive crew, with linebackers Mel Owens and Jim Collins the likeliest recruits to see action this year. But the outlook in Anaheim is not bright.

The 49ers' 6--10 record was a cause for wild rejoicing in San Francisco last December--which gives you an idea of the state of football affairs in Flake City. The squad was heavily populated with youngsters last fall, so fans will expect much improvement--at least a breakeven record--this year. But opponents won't take the 49ers so lightly this season. Also, rebuilding teams tend to fall back once or twice before reaching respectability (the Atlanta Falcons under Leeman Bennett are a classic example).

The 49ers' main weakness, of course, is a serious lack of experience, especially on defense. The running game is also less than spectacular. The greatest 49er asset is quarterback Joe Montana, who emerged last season with dramatic suddenness. Other pleasant surprises were wide receivers Dwight Clark and Fred Solomon.

Happily, the 49ers had some draft picks last April and came out with a few players who could make immediate--and much-needed--contributions. Especially helpful will be rookie defensive backs Ronnie Lott and Eric Wright. Another draftee, defensive tackle John Harty, should be a starter his first year.

An awesome reconstruction job faces coach Bum Phillips in New Orleans. The devastation is almost complete. Phillips' first order of business is to rebuild a running game that was mordant last fall. Saints fans see a halo over this year's number-one draft choice, running back George Rogers.

The Saints have severe personnel needs almost everywhere, so look for a lot of new names on the final roster. How much of the rebuilding job can be done this season is problematical at best. Phillips is not renowned as a disciplinarian, and a laid-back coach in a laid-back city may not be the best possible combination for producing a winning team.

The most tragic victim of the Saints' perennial mediocrity is courageous quarterback Archie Manning. On a winning team, he would have been an all-time immortal. In New Orleans, his career has been wasted.

Playboy's 1981 Pre-Season All-Pro Team

Offense

James Lofton, Green Bay ............................Wide Receiver

John Jefferson, San Diego ...........................Wide Receiver

Kellen Winslow, San Diego ..............................Tight End

Leon Gray, Houston .......................................Tackle

Mike Kenn, Atlanta ........................................Tackle

John Hannah, New England .................................Guard

Herbert Scott, Dallas .....................................Guard

Mike Webster, Pittsburgh ..................................Center

Dan Fouts, San Diego ................................Quarterback

Earl Campbell, Houston ..............................Running Back

Tony Dorsett, Dallas .................................Running Back

Ed Murray, Detroit ...................................Place Kicker

Defense

Lee Roy Selmon, Tampa Bay ..................................End

Art Still, Kansas City .........................................End

Louie Kelcher, San Diego ..................................Tackle

Randy White, Dallas .......................................Tackle

Jack Lambert, Pittsburgh ........................Middle Linebacker

Ted Hendricks, Oakland ........................Outside Linebacker

Robert Brazile, Houston ........................Outside Linebacker

Lemar Parrish, Washington ............................Cornerback

Lester Hayes, Oakland ................................Cornerback

Nolan Cromwell, Los Angeles ..........................Free Safety

Gary Fencik, Chicago ...............................Strong Safety

Dave Jennings, New York Giants ............................Punter

J. T. Smith, Kansas City ............................Kick Returner

This Season's Winners

N.F.C. Eastern Division ............................Dallas Cowboys

N.F.C. Central Division ..........................Minnesota Vikings

N.F.C. Western Division ............................Atlanta Falcons

N.F.C. Play-offs.... Dallas Cowboys

A.F.C. Eastern Division ..............................New York Jets

A.F.C. Central Division ..........................Pittsburgh Steelers

A.F.C. Western Division ........................San Diego Chargers

A.F.C. Play-offs.... San Diego Chargers

Super Bowl.... Dallas Cowboys

"We think this is the year the Jets will finally make it big. They might even be a Super Bowl contender."

Eastern Division

American Football Conference

New York Jets ................... 10--6

New England Patriots ............. 9--7

Buffalo Bills .................... 8--8

Miami Dolphins .................. 8--8

Baltimore Colts .................. 4--12

Central Division

American Football Conference

Pittsburgh Steelers .............. 10--6

Cincinnati Bengals ............... 9--7

Cleveland Browns ................ 8--8

Houston Oilers ................... 6--10

Western Division

American Football Conference

San Diego Chargers .............. 11--5

Oakland Raiders ................. 10--6

Seattle Seahawks ................ 8--8

Kansas City Chiefs ............... 7--9

Denver Broncos .................. 6--10

Eastern Division

National Football Conference

Dallas Cowboys .................. 11--5

Philadelphia Eagles .............. 9--7

New York Giants ................. 8--8

Washington Redskins ............. 8--8

St. Louis Cardinals ............... 4--12

Central Division

National Football Conference

Minnesota Vikings ................ 10--6

Chicago Bears ................... 9--7

Detroit Lions .................... 9--7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ............ 8--8

Green Bay Packers ............... 4--12

Western Division

National Football Conference

Atlanta Falcons .................. 10--6

Los Angeles Rams ................ 9--7

San Francisco 49ers .............. 6--10

New Orleans Saints ............... 4--12