Playboy's Pro Football Preview

So you want to know which teams will go to the Super Bowl this year? It's easy. Of the dozen or so most talented squads in the league, the two with the fewest injuries will make it to New Orleans next January 26. The quality of officiating and lucky bounces of the ball will have their effects, but the best ticket to Super Bowl XX will be a clean bill of health.

Conflicting financial pressures have made pro football a huge crap game. In order to promote ever-greater ticket sales and higher television ratings, the game's rules have been changed to favor the offense--producing higher-scoring, more "entertaining" games. Professional football is, after all, big-time showbiz. But the increasing complexity of offenses has introduced perplexing problems. Having one or two capable players at the skill positions is no longer enough. Different game situations now require players with entirely different abilities who can shuttle in and out of the same positions, and capable substitutes must be available in case of injury to first- or even second-stringers.

Such a wide diversity of talent is hard to provide on a 45-player roster. The owners obviously don't want to increase the number of their employees--even the worst of whom, you can bet, feels he's worth $500,000 for six months' work.

In addition, television revenues are no longer skyrocketing. It's a matter of over-supply. The airwaves are now so loaded with football games--college, pro and even high school--that audiences aren't as avid as they once were. They're hung over on football.

Thus, with an increasingly complex and diversified game that makes greater demands on available talent--and with the prospect of less and less TV money on hand to buy more talent--a few ill-timed and ill-placed injuries can scuttle the season for a franchise. Look at the Chicago Bears last year. Where might they have finished with a healthy Jim McMahon?

Take our advice and don't bet big bucks on which teams will be this season's powerhouses--unless your grandmother is a soothsayer or you're on a first-name basis with several team physicians.

Oh, yes. There is one irreplaceable element if a team is to survive injuries and other unexpected obstacles. That's a creative and intelligent coach who has the smarts to adapt his game strategy to the vicissitudes of fortune. And that's why this year we're going with Chuck Knox's Seattle Seahawks and Mike Ditka's Chicago Bears.

While we wait for the season to begin--and for the disabled lists to start filling up--let's take a look at all the teams around the N.F.L.

Miami's remarkable success last season was the result of two fortuitous happenings. First, quarterback Dan Marino suddenly matured and had a record-shattering campaign. Second (and even more important), the other teams in the A.F.C. East ranged from mediocre to awful. Marino will return this year, presumably better than ever, but the other Eastern Division teams will all be improved. The Dolphins' biggest problem, however, is on defense. The Killer B's were overrated last season, and they'll be even worse this year. There weren't many great defensive players available in April's draft--by the time the Dolphins had a pick, all the goodies were gone. Three Dolphin rookies, defensive tackle George Little, linebacker Alex Moyer and cornerback Mike Smith, will probably make the squad out of sheer necessity. Don Shula also needs a couple of intimidating runners to give another dimension to his passaholic offense--first-round draft choice Lorenzo Hampton should help.

Patriotism is running high in Boston. The days of rancor and vicious infighting are over. New coach Raymond Berry has brought a sense of stability to the franchise. Although he has recruited a quality group of assistants, Berry--the former Colts receiver who was Johnny U.'s favorite target--will run the offense himself. He has several superassets, such as runners Craig James and Tony Collins and a passing attack that includes quarterback Tony Eason and receivers Irving Fryar, Stanley Morgan and Stephen Starring (a new member of the N.F.L.'s All-Name team). The Patriots' draft was productive, bringing center Trevor Matich and defensive end Garin Veris to New England.

The turmoil is beginning to subside in the Jets' locker room. The furor began when former coach Walt Michaels took the team to within one game of the 1983 Super Bowl and then was moved out. His replacement, Joe Walton, often covered his inadequacies by screaming at the veterans. Most of the oldies are gone now, and Walton has molded the team in his own image. The Jets have an excellent offensive line and a good ground attack but have no established quarterback as they begin preseason drills. They didn't find a promising passer in the draft but upgraded their air attack by selecting Wisconsin's Al Toon, who'll be their best receiver for years.

The situation in Buffalo is simple: When you're on the bottom, you can't go anywhere but up. Fortunately for the Bills, last season's poor showing gave them a prime position in April's draft. They reaped a bumper crop. The top prize, of course, was defensive end Bruce Smith, but cornerback Derrick Burroughs and center Mark Traynowicz should also win starting jobs. Buffalo needs help everywhere, so most of the rookies will be thrown into the trenches as raw recruits. The Bills should still charge a little harder than they did in 1984.

We did a grave disservice to the Colts last year, predicting that they would win only two games. They had a fabulously successful season, winning four. This year, they're going to reach astronomical heights by winning five--certainly enough to keep the fans filling the Hoosier Dome.

The Colts need help everywhere--especially in Robert Irsay's owner's box--but, unfortunately, some of their highest draft choices have suffered attacks of failurephobia and have defected to the U.S.F.L. That leaves holes in the Colts' line-up, but help is on the way--at least on defense--in the persons of draftees Duane Bickett, a linebacker from USC, and Don Anderson, a cornerback from Purdue.

Pro football teams, like people and cicadas, go through cycles. The franchises that are big winners for a number of years eventually suffer the inroads of low draft choices and aging veterans. The rebuilding process can be long and excruciating. The Pittsburgh Steelers, however, have pulled off a nearly miraculous resurrection in only two years. Last season, they were a prime example of the wild inconsistencies of young teams (there were 13 rookies on the roster): They beat the 49ers in San Francisco, then lost the next week to the lowly Colts. The Steelers have enviable quarterback depth (Mark Malone is this year's probable starter), plus a superb corps of receivers (Louis Lipps is super-superb, and he's still getting better), and the running of Frank Pollard and Walter Abercrombie, just approaching his potential.

The Steelers have depth problems at many positions, so a few ill-timed injuries could devastate them. The draft brought half a dozen contenders for starting spots, but offensive tackle Mark Benning, defensive back Liffort Hobley and linebacker Gregg Carr are the real prizes.

Cincinnati is also rebuilding--a task made all the more difficult by management's tightfisted fiscal policies. Every time general manager Paul Brown opens his wallet, the hinges squeak. The result has been the Bengals' recent difficulty in signing high draft choices and the insistence of some of their best players on being traded. It now appears, however, that the Bengals' parsimony is a harbinger of the immediate future in the N.F.L.

Cincinnati needs to sign all its draftees this year, though, since the talent stockpile in Riverfront Stadium is thin. And April's draft was a Bengal bonanza. Linebackers Emmanuel King and Carl Zander, defensive backs Sean Thomas and Anthony Tuggle and lineman Tony DeGrate should all be rookie starters. The quarterback position has suffered from instability, but Boomer Esiason will win the job this year.

Cleveland is also looking for stability at quarterback. Gary Danielson is the experienced veteran, but second-year player Terry Nugent has a cannon for an arm.

The Browns suffered from an anemic running attack last year, but they added iron by signing running back Kevin Mack, who defected from the U.S.F.L. The Browns' weakest suit is a limp offensive line that is showing its age. The draft this year--good news--was loaded with top-grade blockers, and the Browns got one: Marc Krerowicz. They also picked super-runner Greg Allen, but the big catch was a whopper. Bernie Kosar--taken in the supplemental draft--could quickly become one of the top quarterbacks in the N.F.L.

Added firepower on offense should help the Browns' defensive unit--one of the league's best last year--do even better this season. Playing three quarters per game tends to wear down even a great defense.

Houston's talent pool is a mirror image of Cleveland's. Quarterback Warren Moon is tremendous. Soon he'll be such a force in the N.F.L. that people will start talking about his arm instead of his salary. And the Oilers' young but talented offensive line, led by superguard Mike Munchak, could be the best in the league.

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The defensive unit, however, is weak, though the draft brought some help. The most valuable nuggets are defensive lineman Ray Childress and defensive back Richard Johnson, but at least ten of this year's draftees should make the team.

Part of the trouble last year (the Oilers won three games) was the fact that both coach Hugh Campbell and quarterback Moon were new to the N.F.L. This year's liability will be extreme youth. More than half the squad is a product of the past three drafts. The Oilers' long history of front-office interference with the coaching staff should end this time around; now that he has shown some results, Campbell will have a freer hand in running his ball club.

The Seahawks have everything they need to take this year's Super Bowl crown. Running back Curt Warner, whose injury in last year's opening game was a devastating setback, is fully recovered. Seattle's productive passing attack (Dave Krieg throwing to Steve Largent and Daryl Turner)--developed by coach Chuck Knox after Warner went down--should be better than ever. And a young, talented defensive unit will benefit from a year's experience. The draft crop was Lean Cuisine as far as Seattle was concerned--fullback Owen Gill is the only sure bet to see a lot of action.

The Seahawks' offensive line could use some backup help, but there are no glaring weaknesses anywhere on the squad. Last season's best-ever 12--4 record may even be surpassed by this year's performance.

Denver, too, had one of its best records ever last season (13--3). The Broncos will take charge if Seattle slips. Denver's hopes revolve around whether or not quarterback John Elway can scratch the surface of his immense potential. That, in turn, depends on whether or not some heftier runners and speedier receivers can be rounded up to help him. The Broncos have a huge contingent of youngsters who should profit from a year's hard knocks, but there are also some aging, busted Broncos who must soon be replaced. Three rookie receivers--Steve Sewell, Vance Johnson and Keli McGregor--could be the keys to producing the devastating passing attack Broncos fans have expected since Elway signed.

The Broncos' major adversary may be their schedule: It's much tougher than last season's. At least they play both Miami and San Francisco at home.

The Los Angeles Raiders' fall from grace (they won only 11 times last year--a disgraceful showing by owner Al Davis' standards) was due largely to a scrambled quarterback situation (veteran Jim Plunkett is being eased out by future helmsman Marc Wilson) and a once-impregnable offensive line that was devastated by injuries. The health of the blockers will be questionable until opening day, but Wilson should be in full command this fall. His favorite target will be receiver Darrell "Dokie" Williams. The Raiders' defense, especially at cornerback and safety, is a sight to behold. Cornerbacks Lester Hayes and Mike Haynes are two of the best in the history of the game. And second-year nose tackle Bill Pickel terrorizes opposing quarterbacks the way Ben Davidson used to do. The Raiders' depth is so impressive that receiver Jesse Hester is the only rookie likely to succeed this year.

Kansas City's bright prospects last season came a cropper when quarterback Bill Kenney was disabled. Breaks and strains all over the defensive line didn't help, either. But the hurts are healed, so the Chiefs could be a dark-horse team in the race to the Super Bowl this fall. Their pride will be a stellar corps of receivers led by Henry Marshall and Carlos Carson--it could be the best in the league. Still, the Chiefs are desperately short of ball carriers. The draft brought help in the person of running back Ethan Horton. The Chiefs will probably throw the ball 80 percent of the time, hope for the best and depend on a tenacious defense led by Art Still, Bill Maas and Mike Bell.

It's start-over time in San Diego. In just three years, the Chargers have dropped from Super Bowl contenders to a team in desperate need of help from top to bottom. The offensive line is wearing down, the entire defense is (as always) lackluster and injuries took an unusually high toll last year. The trouble spot is the defensive backfield. Rookie defensive backs Wayne Davis, John Hendy and Jeff Dale will help there. Quarterback Dan Fouts is still one of the league's best when he's healthy (don't blink--he's healthy now), but he has little offensive help except runner Earnest Jackson. The Chargers' schedule is much easier than it was a year ago, but that's small comfort--they'll be lucky to post a single win inside their division.

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Washington has been the oldest team in the league for a decade, but these oldies are still the Skins' best players. The Skins suffered a plague of breaks and bruises last season (31 players were on the injured reserve at one time or another), but, incredibly, the older players sustained the fewest injuries. Age inevitably catches up, however, and a lot of familiar Redskins names could be missing from the roster by the end of the pre-season.

The Redskins will still be favorites to win the division, thanks to their remaining stalwarts (such as defensive lineman Dave Butz) and a spectacular trio of receivers (Art Monk, Charlie Brown and Calvin Muhammad). The offensive line remains one of the N.F.L.'s best. The major perk in Washington, though, is the over-all stability of the franchise. The Redskins are an emotionally mature squad, with no egocentric malcontents threatening to jump ship at the drop of a U.S.F.L. dollar. The Skins' draft was a dry well, but a fortunate off-season trade brought fullback George Rogers to Washington. Rogers, if needed, will be a better-than-adequate replacement for party animal John Riggins.

The Cowboys were roughed up last year, missing the play-offs for only the second time since the mid-Sixties. A vast talent reservoir has trickled away into retirement over the past two years, but that was foreseeable. The mind-boggling improbabilities were a morale-shattering controversy about quarterback leadership (Danny White vs. Gary Hogeboom) and freak injuries (the Cowboys' best offensive lineman, Jim Cooper, was wiped out by a dance-floor accident).

Like all rebuilding teams, the Cowboys need a few promising youngsters. This year--as usual--the Dallas draft produced an array of names few fans have ever heard. A prime example is Kurt Ploeger, a defensive end from Gustavus Adolphus College, in northern Minnesota. The always-alert Cowboys did select running back Robert Lavette and another ball carrier named Herschel Walker--when the U.S.F.L. folds, Dallas can then pair Walker and Tony Dorsett in the world's best rushing game.

This year, Tom Landry is dedicated to reconstruction. The Cowboy players, says a front-office insider, have "sucked up their guts to make a comeback." Perhaps the best sign of renewed spirit is the assumption of team leadership by Dorsett, an awesomely impressive young man whose personal assets outstrip even his athletic gifts. His biggest triumphs will come after he leaves professional football.

A quarter of a century ago, the Cardinals fled Chicago for St. Louis. They've been underachievers ever since. This, at long last, could be the turnaround year. The franchise has a new sense of belonging, now that the St. Louis city fathers have pledged to build an expensive new stadium to keep the Cardinals from absconding to Albuquerque, Amarillo, Phoenix or Grimy Gulch. An even better omen for the Cardinals' future is a growing stockpile of young talent. Quarterback Neil Lomax and wide-out Roy Green constitute one of football's finest passing combinations. The defensive side, led by linebacker E. J. Junior and safety Benny Perrin, is solid and improving; ditto for a young and rapidly improving Cardinal offensive line. Linebacker Freddie Joe Nunn and tackle Scott Bergold are the only first-year players certain to play.

The Giants enjoyed unaccustomed success last year (nine victories) because they stayed healthy. Quarterback Phil Simms, for instance, went through a full season without injury for the first time in six years. If their luck holds and the Giants can put some muscle into their running attack, they may muscle their way to double-figure wins this time around. Rookie runner George Adams will find his way into the picture. Another draftee, receiver Stacy Robinson, has enough speed to help the aerial attack.

The Giants are clearly a team of the future. Last year's roster included 24 rookies and second-year players. Eleven of those were starters.

The Eagles' plight is easy to describe. They need help everywhere; but most of all, they need it in the front office. Incompetent linebackers are cut in the N.F.L.; inept owners (and commissioners) hang on forever. Philadelphia's new owners will presumably introduce rational management, but the Eagles need more. They need a settled quarterback position (unlikely this year, though rookie Randall Cunningham could be a big help in the future), a respectable running game (they were dead last in rushing last season and got no help at all in the draft) and fresh faces in the trenches. Draft choices Kevin Allen, Greg Naron and Ken Reeves will help in the offensive line. The defensive unit, operating in a hopeless situation, has become battle-hardened. Safeties Wes Hopkins and Ray Ellis are especially tough.

At last--the season Chicago fans have been waiting for. All the pieces to the Super Bowl puzzle are in place. Last year's insurmountable obstacle was quarterback Jim McMahon's early-season injury (five quarterbacks started for the Bears last season), but McMahon is now fully recovered and armed for Bear. Walter Payton gives the Bears the best running threat in the league, and the young Chicago offensive line improves with every game. Jimbo Covert is already the league's premier tackle. Add to all this the fact that the Bears led the N.F.L. in defense last fall. Best of all, coach Mike Ditka had no critical needs to fill in the draft; few rookies will see much action. With a little luck and no shattering injuries, Chicago should show up in New Orleans next January for Super Bowl XX.

The Bears made what appeared to be the dumbest pick in April's draft, using a first-round choice on elephantine--and lightly regarded--defensive tackle William Perry. If Ditka can keep him away from the dinner table, however, Perry may develop into a one-man defensive line.

If Chicago falters, Green Bay is ready to take charge. Under coach Forrest Gregg, the Packers have been transformed from a finesse team into a group of intimidators. Gregg's dog-eat-dog approach produced a 7--1 record in the second half of the 1984 season, and the Packers could be even more formidable this year. Quarterback Lynn Dickey is a forceful leader. At present, the Pack has no urgent need for reinforcements anywhere, but a couple of rookies--offensive linemen Ken Ruettgers and Rich Moran--could provide some help.

The return of coach Bud Grant after a one-year retirement gives Minnesota a renewed sense of purpose, but purpose alone doesn't win games. The Vikings are several seasons away from regaining their standing as the powerhouse of the Central Division. One reason for their decline in recent years has been the frugality of general manager Mike Lynn, who now promises to mend his ways and sign all of April's draft picks. The Vikes need help in the defensive line and at quarterback, where Tommy Kramer has suffered debilitating injuries in each of the past two seasons. Rookie Steve Bono could become a stable backup. The Vikings' draft also caught a top-drawer defensive linebacker, Chris Doleman, and a good defensive back named Issiac Holt. They had ten draft choices in the first six rounds, and all ten of those draftees should stick.

There are two reasons this could be a surprisingly good year in Tampa Bay. First, Leeman Bennett takes over as head coach. Bennett is pleasant and low-key on the surface, but there's a dynamo whirling inside him. The second is the likelihood that last year's shocking series of freak plays, close officiating calls and untimely injuries won't repeat itself. The Bucs also hope to have better luck away from home. Last year, they didn't win a single game on the road. The Buccaneers need help throughout the defensive unit. They think this year's draft brought a few goodies. The best of them will be defensive end Ron Holmes, linebacker Ervin Randle and defensive back Mike Heaven.

If Tampa Bay has a big year, the Buccaneers' followers will certainly enjoy seeing Atlanta fans eat their hearts out. Bennett was fired a couple of years ago by Falcons owner Rankin Smith.

Prospects are bleak for the Detroit Lions. New coach Darryl Rogers takes over a team with thorny problems in the offensive unit. Injuries last season to runner Billy Sims and various members of the offensive line left the Lions' attack toothless. Indecision about who would be the starting quarterback was a divisive issue until the Lions obtained passer Joe Ferguson from Buffalo on draft day.

The Lions were looking for almost any kind of offensive help in April's draft and came up with two certain starters, tackle Lomas Brown and center Kevin Glover. They expect this year's rookies to contribute more than last year's flop crop.

The San Francisco 49ers are a model franchise. Joe Montana, as good a quarterback as you'll find anywhere, is even better as a team leader. Receivers Freddie Solomon and Dwight Clark are among the best in the N.F.L., as are runners Wendell Tyler and Roger Craig. The 49ers' defense, remarkably, may be even better than the offense. But an ominous cloud hangs over the Golden Gate--there is a long N.F.L. tradition of teams' winning the Super Bowl and then taking a dive the next season. The last time the 49ers won the championship, in 1981, they fell apart the following year. If they aren't mesmerized by adulation, they will be strong contenders for the Super Bowl.

The 49ers dug a couple of diamonds out of April's draft. Wide receiver Jerry Rice is expected to be an instant starter, and runner Ricky Moore will see a lot of action.

If a few pieces of the puzzle fall into place, we may be looking at a banner year for the Rams. Their major offensive shortcoming, a muddled situation at quarterback, was remedied by the signing of Dieter Brock from the Canadian Football League. He will be throwing to three excellent young receivers, Henry Ellard, Ron Brown and rookie Chuck Scott. Eric Dickerson is the league's best runner since O. J. Simpson. The offensive line is superb, but the Rams need a more intimidating pass rush, and the draft brought little help. Two colorful rookies--defensive back Jerry Gray and linebacker Kevin Greene--will improve L.A.'s defense.

After 18 nonwinning seasons, New Orleans owner John Mecom, Jr., decided to throw in the towel and unload the franchise to a group led by Tom Benson. The new ownership seems refreshingly stable and sane. Bum Phillips remains in command as head coach, despite the Saints' performance last year--1984 was a hellish campaign. Why? A rash of offensive-line injuries contributed to quarterback Richard Todd's poor performance. Dave Wilson seems destined to start this year.

A big boost to New Orleans' fortunes this season could be runner Earl Campbell. He was supposed to be the savior of the Saints when he came over from Houston a year ago, but Campbell never regained the form that had made him the A.F.C.'s most feared running back. Maybe this year he will.

The draft brought reinforcements for the Saints' defensive unit--linebackers Alvin Toles and Jack Del Rio are hot prospects.

The skies are gray over Atlanta, thanks to some dumb decisions by owner Rankin Smith. It's been downhill for the Falcons ever since he fired coach Leeman Bennett after a winning season and hired Dan Henning, and now the Atlanta sports community is getting bitter.

Last year's poor record (4--12) was--in all fairness to Henning--a result of disastrous injuries to the offensive unit. The verdict is still out on runner William Andrews and receiver Billy Johnson: Will they be fully recovered from last season's injuries when this season begins? Another iffy situation is at quarterback, where David Archer has the inside track.

Going into April's draft, the Falcons needed depth across the board, particularly in the offensive line. Tackle Bill Fralic has it in him to solve that problem all by himself. Another rookie, defensive end Mike Gann, is also a certain starter, and running back Joe Washington--obtained in an off-season trade--will juice up Atlanta's disappointing ground game.

Playboy's 1985 Pre-Season All-Pro Team

Offense

Mark Duper, Miami..........Wide Receiver

Roy Green, St. Louis..........Wide Receiver

Ozzie Newsome, Cleveland..........Tight End

Anthony Munoz, Cincinnati..........Tackle

Jim Covert, Chicago..........Tackle

Mike Munchak, Houston..........Guard

Randy Cross, San Francisco..........Guard

Dwight Stephenson, Miami..........Center

Joe Montana, San Francisco..........Quarterback

Walter Payton, Chicago..........Running Back

Eric Dickerson, Los Angeles Rams..........Running Back

Jan Stenerud, Minnesota..........Place Kicker

Defense

Lee Roy Selmon, Tampa Bay..........End

Mark Gastineau, New York Jets..........End

Randy White, Dallas..........Tackle

Dave Butz, Washington..........Tackle

Mike Singletary, Chicago..........Middle Linebacker

Hugh Green, Tampa Bay..........Outside Linebacker

Lawrence Taylor, New York Giants..........Outside Linebacker

Mark Haynes, New York Giants..........Cornerback

Mike Haynes, Los Angeles Raiders..........Cornerback

Mike Downs, Dallas..........Free Safety

Kenny Easley, Seattle..........Strong Safety

Jim Arnold, Kansas City..........Punter

Louis Lipps, Pittsburgh..........Kick Returner

Bill Bates, Dallas..........Special Teams

This Season's Winners

A.F.C. Eastern Division..........Miami Dolphins

A.F.C. Central Division..........Pittsburgh Steelers

A.F.C. Western Division..........Seattle Seahawks

A.F.C. Champion....Seattle Seahawks

N.F.C. Eastern Division..........Washington Redskins

N.F.C. Central Division..........Chicago Bears

N.F.C. Western Division..........San Francisco 49ers

N.F.C. Champion....Chicago Bears

All the Marbles....Seattle Seahawks

Eastern Division

American Football Conference

Miami Dolphins..........10--6

New England Patriots..........9--7

New York Jets..........9--7

Buffalo Bills..........6--10

Indianapolis Colts..........5--11

Central Division

American Football Conference

Pittsburgh Steelers..........10--6

Cincinnati Bengals..........7--9

Cleveland Browns..........6--10

Houston Oilers..........5--11

"The Cowboy players, says a front-office insider, have 'sucked up their guts to make a comeback. ' "

Western Division

American Football Conference

Seattle Seahawks..........12--4

Denver Broncos..........10--6

Los Angeles Raiders..........10--6

Kansas City Chiefs..........8--8

San Diego Chargers..........5--11

Eastern Division

National Football Conference

Washington Redskins..........10--6

Dallas Cowboys..........9--7

St. Louis Cardinals..........9--7

New York Giants..........8--8

Philadelphia Eagles..........5--11

Central Division

National Football Conference

Chicago Bears..........12--4

Green Bay Packers..........8--8

Minnesota Vikings..........7--9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers..........6--10

Detroit Lions..........4--12

Western Division

National Football Conference

San Francisco 49ers..........11--5

Los Angeles Rams..........10--6

New Orleans Saints..........8--8

Atlanta Falcons..........5--11