Playboy's Pro Football Forecast

Last January's Super Bowl seemed to have only one dramatic moment: the excruciating pause while the instant-replay refs decided whether Art Monk's right toes were in or out of bounds on an apparent touchdown reception from Mark Rypien. On the field, officials ruled it a good catch, but the video betrayed Monk's misstep. As the Redskins wrote a brilliant ending to their dominant year, piling up points and throttling the Bills, it began to look as if that call would be the only significant play of the game: Monk's diving catch was thought to have saved the instant replay.

But upon further review, it didn't manage even that. During their off-season meetings, NFL team owners abolished the use of instant replay. Monk's noncatch aside, the owners were probably right to do so. Too often last year, officials seemed to cede their authority to the geniuses in the replay booths, and there's no question that it extended games, which are already long enough. How many hours does anyone want to watch Green Bay versus Phoenix?

More importantly, the focus belongs on the field, where football's brutal, graceful appeal is played out in the huge, roaring arenas of the NFL. Anything that shuts up the crowd is bound to be a negative, and few things silenced a stadium like that tape-delay officiating.

So this year, the show goes on--without the reruns. That goes for the next Super Bowl as well: Neither Washington nor Buffalo will be back. This time it'll be Philadelphia and Houston, with the Eagles coming out on top.

There's no way I'd pick the AFC to win a Super Bowl. Here's why. Before Pete Rozelle retired as NFL commissioner three years ago, he proclaimed that the league had achieved parity. Pete obviously has a great sense of humor. In the last five years of his reign, NFC teams won every Super Bowl (and have since added three more victories to the string). Most of the games have been either laughers or snoozers, depending on the quality of the ads. During the NFC's eight-year run to daylight (and Disneyland), they beat their AFC opponents by an aggregate score of 297-125. That's parity?

Apparently, there isn't a great deal of parity along the sidelines, either. Nine teams--the Bengals, Packers, Colts, Rams, Vikings, Steelers, Chargers, Seahawks and Buccaneers--replaced coaches after last season. The new head honchos are in their glory right now, during open season on optimism. Once the schedule gets going, however, only two look to succeed: Chuck Knox in L.A. and Sam Wyche in Tampa Bay. Of course, for these franchises, success is relative.

Now that the owners have temporarily stopped replacing coaches, they are ready to move on to their next big headache: the players' bid for free agency. We all know how that has worked in baseball, where the owners annually cry "Stop us before we spend again."

Compounding the coming money problems is the league's deal with the networks. The TV people overbid on the privilege of broadcasting games, and now they're asking for $220,000,000 in givebacks over the remaining two years of the current NFL contract. The league agreed to offer a paltry $28,000,000 ($1,000,000 per club), which didn't go over well with TV executives. Expect hard bargaining when the two sides negotiate a new multiyear contract that will begin with the 1995 season.

If the TV deal and free agency put a double squeeze on the owners, we all know who is going to pay: the fans. Welcome to the world of five-dollar hot dogs, ten-dollar beers, forty-dollar grandstand seats. The owners are gearing up to present NFL games on pay-per-view TV in two years, so your couch may not come cheap, either.

But enough about issues that have more to do with finances than with football. It's time to take a look around the league to see which teams will be in the hunt for Super Bowl XXVII.

Philadelphia's Rich Kotite deserved serious consideration for Coach of the Year in 1991. Maybe he'll get it this year when he guides his Eagles into the Super Bowl. Kotite's debut as helmsman easily could have turned into a nightmare after quarterback Randall Cunningham blew out his knee. But the Eagles still managed to win ten games and just missed the play-offs.

Cunningham figures to upgrade Philadelphia's offense dramatically, which will be gravy for the Eagles: The team's strength is its overpowering defense. Philadelphia was number one in the NFL against both the run and the pass. Despite the loss of All-Pro defensive tackle Jerome Brown, who died in an auto accident in June, Philly still has four All-Pro defenders: linemen Reggie White (15 sacks), Clyde Simmons (13 sacks), linebacker Seth Joyner and cornerback Eric Allen. The puny offense the Eagles had without Cunningham was mostly supplied by all-purpose back Keith Byars and wide receiver Fred Barnett. The Eagles simply need to move the ball more. With Cunningham and Herschel Walker around, they should be able to move it all the way to Pasadena, home of Super Bowl XXVII.

Three years ago in Dallas, Cowboys fans loathed the J&J boys--new team owner Jerry Jones and new head coach Jimmy Johnson--because of the way coach Tom Landry was shunted aside. They went 1--15 in that first season.

But things have gone pretty well since then. They pulled off perhaps the biggest sting ever perpetrated in modern pro (continued on page 142)Pro Football(continued from page 120) football--their 1989 trade of the much-traveled Herschel Walker to Minnesota for a bushel of draft picks--and haven't looked back since. After just missing the play-offs in 1990, Johnson got the Cowboys into post-season play last year for the first time since 1985. He'll win a division title by his fifth season.

Johnson has pro football's best young quarterback in Troy Aikman, who, despite missing five games with injuries, finished last season as the NFC's fourth-ranked passer. On the ground, Emmitt Smith, a hard-nosed runner just two years out of Florida, topped the NFL in rushing with 1563 yards. Dallas also has a great young wide receiver in Michael Irvin. A hot dog who can back up all his trash talk, Irvin led the NFC in receptions (93) and the NFL in receiving yardage (1523) last season. Combine that proven offense with an improved defense, and the Cowboys might just become America's Team again.

Having achieved guru status last year (most NFL insiders consider him the best head coach in the league), the Redskins' Joe Gibbs is intent on having Washington repeat as Super Bowl champions. His players are eager to pick up where they left off, and that's especially true of QB Mark Rypien, who has the most powerful passing arm in football. Last season, the Super Bowl MVP threw for a career high 28 touchdowns while tying his career low of 11 interceptions.

Rypien throws his darts and bombs to one of the best sets of receivers in pro football. The Redskins' fabled posse consists of Gary Clark (1340 yards and ten TDs last year), Ricky Sanders and future Hall of Famer Art Monk, who led the team with 71 receptions. Monk needs just. 19 more to break Steve Largent's all-time record of 819 receptions.

To make matters worse for opposing secondaries, Gibbs traded up in the college draft--he wound up with the number-four pick, highest ever for a defending Super Bowl champion--and selected Heisman Trophy-winner Desmond Howard of Michigan. The Skins' passing game will be magnificent.

Washington's beloved Hogs are still effective up front. Rypien was sacked seven times in 1991, fewest by far in the NFL, while Earnest Byner rushed for his second straight 1000-yard season. The defense, led by DE Charles Mann, LB Wilber Marshall and CB Darrell Green, plays tough. But Washington will be number one on every opponent's hit list this season, and it's tough for a target to repeat.

A year after Bill Parcells took the Giants to a Super Bowl championship, he left his successor, Ray Handley, one hell of a problem. How do you replace the guy who took the club to two championships? Answer: You can't. Handley's Giants wound up 88 and didn't make it into post-season play. Prospects aren't great for this season, either.

Last year's pre-season scuffle over the quarterback job sapped confidence, especially when Jeff Hosteller--who displaced Phil Simms--failed to give the Giants much of an offensive spark. Things won't be much better this year, whoever is calling the signals. The Giants have only two proven receivers in Mark Ingram and Stephen Baker. That's why they didn't hesitate to grab Notre Dame tight end Derek Brown in the first round of the draft to fill the void caused by Mark Bavaro's departure.

The Giants' defense, while still formidable, is no longer powerful enough to carry them to even a divisional title. The once-incomparable Lawrence Taylor has shown signs of slowing down at linebacker, and he'll almost surely retire after this season. L.T.'s sack total dropped to seven, while the Giants' defense finished 16th against the run after ranking fourth in 1990. Before replacing Parcells, Handley was making plans to attend law school. Yo, Ray: It's never too early to start applying.

It's time for coach Joe Bugel to blow reveille, because his Cardinals need a wake-up call. Starting his third year in Phoenix, the former Redskins offensive line coach doesn't have an offense, and his defense is strictly for the birds, which is why the Cardinals lost their last eight games in 1991.

One of the problems was that quarterback Timm Rosenbach missed the entire season because of a knee operation. Rosenbach had better be ready, since he's all the team has at QB. The other two quarterbacks, Tom Tupa and Stan Gelbaugh, were lost to Plan B this year. Not that they'll be missed all that much: Under their guidance, the Cards' passing game finished 26th in the NFL. Their ground game and their run defense were out of commission, as well, also finishing 26th in the league.

How did they get in this fix? Team owner Billy Bidwill abhors the idea of paying players what they're worth on the open market. His team is living proof that you get what you pay for. That is, unless you're a Phoenix season-ticket holder.

Mike Ditka can't stand losing. He also hates a wide-open offense. One of those things is going to have to give. Last year, da Bears lost the Central Division title for the second time in three years, dropping three of their final five games when they quit scoring. The time has come for the Bears to open up their offense or resign themselves to mediocrity.

Look for Ditka to spend a lot of time yelling at, and demanding more from, quarterback Jim Harbaugh and running back Neal Anderson, though he may not get it. The real key to Chicago's bearish showing on offense: Four of the five starters on the offensive line are between 30 and 34 years old.

Chicago still has a rugged defense, one that ranked tenth in the NFL against the run. But age is beginning to show here, too. The Bears should still have enough to win the NFC Central, which isn't exactly one of the tougher divisions in the NFL.

How about this for guts? After going 12-4 last year and winning the Central Division title, Detroit's head coach Wayne Fontes is scrapping the Lions' run-and-shoot offense. Don't knock him: Despite all the hoopla, Detroit's passing attack ranked 22nd in the NFL.

As the Lions retool the offense, they'll have plenty to work with. Eric Kramer and Rodney Peete are able competitors at quarterback, and Barry Sanders is. . . Barry Sanders. In just three years as a pro, he has rushed for 4322 yards and 43 touchdowns. For most running backs, those are career stats.

Detroit needs help on defense, an area Fontes will concentrate on. Even after improving from last in the NFL in 1990 to 15th in 1991, the Lions were inconsistent. Detroit managed to get All-Pro seasons out of nose tackle Jerry Ball and safety Bennie Blades, but the team still has a lot of holes to patch. The Lions overachieved last year by reaching the NFC championship game, in which they were blown out by Washington, 41-10. They won't get that far this time.

Despite what you may think, things aren't truly miserable in Tampa Bay. Former head coaches Ray Perkins and Richard Williamson left a strong foundation for new Buccaneers coach Sam Wyche to build on.

The first challenge will be to launch yet another reclamation job on Vinny Testaverde, who's been returned to the factory for adjustment many times in his short career. Last year he threw 15 interceptions and only eight touchdown passes. Testaverde has a great arm but needs guidance and a little protection--his offensive line allowed an NFC-high 56 sacks last season.

The defense also could use a boost. The Bucs rated 25th against the run last year. Two future All-Pros, linebacker Broderick Thomas and defensive end Keith McCants, are coming on strong and should help out.

Sam Wyche will make sure that the Bucs don't stop here. He is an innovator with a proven record. His team will finish with more than the three victories they recorded in 1991, with the prospect of many more to come.

First-year coach Dennis Green may wish he'd stayed at Stanford after seeing the mess he's inherited in Minnesota. The only good thing that happened to the Vikings (8-8 last year) was that they finally got rid of GM Mike Lynn. He was the guy who inadvertently rebuilt the Cowboys into play-off contenders by sending three years' worth of draft choices and five players to Dallas for Herschel Walker, who was given his unconditional release in June. The quarterback situation is muddled. Although he tossed the fewest interceptions in the league (six), Rich Gannon threw for only 12 TDs. The Vikes have fine receivers in Steve Jordan, Anthony Carter and Cris Carter, but Gannon's not really the guy who can get the ball to them.

Another concern is defense. With no pass rush to speak of, the Vikes' sack total tumbled from an NFL-leading 71 in 1990 to only 33 last year. Coach Green signed a five-year contract with Minnesota. He'll need every minute of it if he's to restore the Vikings to the glory days of the Purple People Eaters.

Last year, Mike Holmgren turned down three head coaching jobs in order to spend one more season as the 49ers' offensive coordinator. Maybe he should have held out a little longer: His new team, the Packers, is a disaster area. Like the Red Cross after an earthquake, Holmgren's being treated as a hero merely for having the guts to show up.

Holmgren replaced nine of the Pack's 11 assistant coaches, and though he can't replace his players as quickly, he's off to a good start. Green Bay's number-one draft choice was Florida State DB Terrell Buckley, who'll immediately tighten up the team's hapless secondary. Until Buckley steps up, they'll have to rely on linebacker Tony Bennett, who finished third in the league with 13 sacks.

The Packers have two offensive liabilities: They can't pass and they can't run. Three years ago, QB Don Majkowski lighted a fire in Green Bay, but he has been hampered by injuries ever since. Last season Majkowski finished as the NFC's third-worst passer, which is why Holmgren quickly traded with Atlanta for former Southern Mississippi quarter-back Brett Favre.

Any way you look at it, however, Green Bay is still a long, long way from becoming a contender.

San Francisco owner Eddie DeBartolo takes pride in running his team as a kind of extended family. When the 49ers won all those Super Bowls, he rewarded the players and their wives with trips to Hawaii. They almost went on another such vacation last year, but ran out of time. During the final six weeks of the season, the Niners were probably the best team in the NFL, even without Joe Montana, who was sidelined all year. In those last six weeks, the 49ers outscored their opponents 189-94. San Francisco finished 10-6 and just missed making the play-offs. Steve Young and Steve Bono did a remarkable job filling in for Montana. They combined for 4134 passing yards; Young finished as the NFL's top quarterback, Bono came in fourth. Neither one will start for the 49ers because Montana is healthy again, and he's still the best there is.

If San Francisco has a weakness on offense, it's the running game. Keith Henderson was a hot rusher late in the season, but he'll be pushed by second-round draft choice Amp Lee out of Florida State and Notre Dame's Ricky Watters, drafted last year but out all season with injuries.

On defense, San Francisco remains rugged. Look for an improved secondary with the addition of first-round draft choice Dana Hall of Washington, a Ronnie Lott--type enforcer.

The Niners have the look of a Super Bowl team and could well be there at the end.

The Jim Finks era is beginning to pay off in New Orleans. His appointment of Jim Mora, a shrewd coach, has already yielded dividends: Last year Mora marched the Saints to an 11-5 record and the first division title in the team's history. The Saints accomplished that even though QB Bobby Hebert missed more than six games with injuries. With him, New Orleans was 8-1.

Running back Craig "Ironhead" Heyward was suspended for two games for breaking an unspecified team rule, and his weight is now said to be approaching 300 pounds. Faced with that rather large uncertainty, Finks traded for Allen Pinkett, who was Houston's leading rusher (720 yards and ten TDs) last year, and added Indiana's Vaughn Dunbar on the first round of the draft.

New Orleans' strength, of course, is its defense. The Saints have the best set of linebackers in the NFL. Pat Swilling (one of the highest-paid defensive players in the league) led the NFL with 17 sacks last season. Rickey Jackson had 11-1/2 sacks, and Sam Mills and Vaughan Johnson are both death on opposing runners. If they can pick up their scoring, the Saints could conceivably go all the way.

Jerry "Elvis" Glanville found lots of talent on the premises when he took over as Atlanta's head coach two years ago. Thus, when the Falcons finished as runner-up in the West with a 10-6 mark last season, it shouldn't have come as a surprise.

After five years, gutsy Chris Miller appears to have arrived as a solid QB. He threw for 3103 yards and 26 TDs last season, which was why Glanville was willing to trade highly regarded Brett Favre to Green Bay. Atlanta's receiving corps might be the best and deepest in the NFL. All-Pro Andre Rison leads the way (976 yards, 12 TDs), followed by Michael Haynes (1122 yards, 11 TDs), Mike Pritchard, George Thomas and Drew Hill, a Plan B acquisition who was Houston's second leading receiver last year.

The Falcons' offense is decidedly one-dimensional: Their rushing attack was 16th in the league, and they could use another proven running back to go along with Steve Broussard. First-round draft choice Tony Smith of Southern Mississippi might fill the bill.

The Falcons' defense could also use some help. Atlanta was 23rd against the run, 20th against the pass, and if corner-back Deion Sanders joins strong safety Brian Jordan (outfielders with the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals, respectively) and sticks to baseball only, the Falcons won't be flying very high this season.

Georgia Frontiere has made few good moves since she assumed ownership of the Los Angeles Rams, but her decision to bring back Chuck Knox as the Rams' head coach was one of them. While finishing 3-13 last year under John Robinson, the Rams often looked demoralized. That will no longer be the case. Everywhere Knox has gone--Los Angeles the first time around, Buffalo and Seattle--he's revived dying teams and taken them to divisional titles. Now the second-winningest active coach, Knox, an artful organizational man, must quickly restore confidence to the Rams' beleaguered QB, Jim Everett, who was sacked 30 times in 1991. When Everett gets the time to throw, he has a trio of tremendous receivers in Henry Ellard, Aaron Cox and Flipper Anderson. "Ground Chuck"--Knox's well-conceived running game--most definitely will lift the Rams from their 27th-place finish in rushing yardage last year and give Everett another boost. The defense will also improve if highly rated draft pick defensive end Sean Gilbert, out of Pittsburgh, comes along as expected.

The Rams aren't about to win the West this year, but Knox will quickly make them an outfit to be reckoned with.

The bickering Bills of Buffalo figure to win their division again, but there's too much strife in the locker room for Buffalo to return to the Super Bowl a third straight year.

Nobody knows how much QB Jim Kelly will miss offensive coordinator Ted Marchibroda, who signed on for his second go-round as head coach of the Colts. Last year Kelly topped the AFC in passing yardage (3844) and touchdown passes (33). That great season was overshadowed by his play in the two most important games of the season, however: He looked lousy in both the AFC championship game and the Super Bowl.

Running back Thurman Thomas had another All-Pro season with 1407 yards, and with Kenneth Davis picking up 624 more, the Bills fielded the finest rushing attack in pro football. Thomas, who seems able to do whatever he wants, also caught 62 passes for 631 yards.

It's a good thing the offense was putting up the numbers, because the defense finished 24th against the run and 21st against the pass. Not even All-Pro linebacker Cornelius Bennett could do much to improve the D, which obviously suffered from a season-long injury to dominating defensive end Bruce Smith. Smith is healthy again, but that's more than can be said for relations among Buffalo's players. The Bills' penchant for arguing among themselves will cause them to self-destruct in post-season play.

As he begins his third season with the New York Jets, Dick Steinberg might be considered the best general manager in the NFL. Last season the Jets made the play-offs for the first time in five years, which means that New York's future brighter for the first time in years.

Despite its recent success, New York may have a different look this year: Steinberg and head coach Bruce Coslet are both high on quarterback Browning Nagle, who was drafted last year out of Louisville. They both feel Nagle is ready to challenge incumbent Ken O'Brien.

The Jets' ground game features a quartet of running backs--Blair Thomas (728 yards), Brad Baxter (666 yards and an AFC-leading 11 rushing TDs), Johnny Hector and Freeman McNeil--who combined to lead the Jets to the top of the NFL in rushing for first downs (133) last year.

Although they were getting it done on the ground, New York's inability to score through the air was a problem. The Jets needed a talented tight end and got one on the first round of the draft in Nebraska's Johnny Mitchell, Defensively, New York has some weaknesses, especially in the secondary, which finished 24th against the pass. They may be rebuilding, but the foundation is finally there.

In Don Shula, the Dolphins have the winningest active coach in football and, in Dan Marino, one of the top quarterbacks, but the team's fans all seem to be asking the same question: What have you done for us lately? In the past four years, the Dolphins have gone 34-30.

The Dolphins would have done a hell of a lot better during that span if they had managed to develop any kind of defensive unit. Last year the Dolphins continued to play like guppies by finishing 25th in the league's defensive stats.

There may be help on the way. Linebacker John Offerdahl, their finest defensive player, was injured for most of the season, but he's fit again. And Miami's two first-round draft choices, Wisconsin cornerback Troy Vincent and Georgia Tech linebacker Marco Coleman, have both been projected as starters. They also made out like bandits in the swap of running back Sammie Smith for Denver disgruntled ballcarrier Bobby Humphrey. A happy Humphrey can only make the Dolphins' attack more potent. These good moves aside, any talk of a Dolphin title still has to begin with defense. Unfortunately, there's not much to talk about.

Last year when the Patriots hired two college guys--Miami's Sam Jankovich in the general manager's role and Syracuse's Dick MacPherson as head coach--wise guy NFL executives didn't even bother to stifle their laughter. They're not laughing anymore. Jankovich and MacPherson took a demoralized team that finished 1-15 in 1990 and wound up winning six games.

On paper, New England didn't seem capable of winning more than two. In Hugh Millen, the Patriots went with a Plan B quarterback who threw twice as many interceptions (18) as he did touchdowns (nine). New England's powder-puff offensive line allowed 63 sacks and didn't block too much better on running plays: The Pats averaged only 92 rushing yards a game. In eight games, the Patriots failed to score more than ten points. Even so, they never quit.

If New England is to match or better its six wins of last year, it will have to tighten up its defense significantly. The Pats ranked 26th overall in the league, yet they were tough against the run, finishing ninth. Obviously, the team's weakest link is its secondary--in 1991, New England ranked 27th in pass defense. Can MacPherson possibly inspire his players to greater exploits this fall? He just might.

It sounds crazy, but maybe, just maybe, Indianapolis Colts owner Bob Irsay and his son, Jim, are learning how to build a decent team after all these dreadful years. This year the team had the top two selections in the draft and made the most of them. Concentrating on defense, Indianapolis took Washington defensive tackle Steve Emtman and Texas A&M linebacker Quentin Coryatt, two blue chippers who'll complete the Colts' tenacious front seven.

They've also taken care of 1990's first rounder, quarterback Jeff George, by hiring Ted Marchibroda as head coach. Marchibroda, having just finished working with Jim Kelly, will help George and the Colts' heretofore dismal offense. George has fine receivers in Bill Brooks (72 receptions), Jessie Hester (60) and Reggie Langhorne, a Plan B signee from Cleveland. Running back Albert Bentley, sidelined for much of last season, seems sound again and will do a lot better than chronic malcontent Eric Dickerson, who will bring his dark clouds to the Raiders.

This is the year the Houston Oilers finally make it to the Super Bowl. QB Warren Moon has certainly waited long enough. One of the most accurate long passers in the NFL, Moon will turn 36 in November, but the thing about him is that he has improved as he's aged. In his past two seasons, Moon has put up staggering passing stats: 4689 yards in 1990 and 4690 yards last season, while leading the Oilers to an 11-5 record.

Houston's defense is fierce up front. All-Pro defensive end William Fuller led the AFC with 15 sacks and Sean Jones added ten more. The Oilers ranked sixth against the run, but were 14th against the pass and hope their secondary can step it up a couple of notches this season. If they do, the Oilers will be this year's AFC sacrificial lamb in the Super Bowl.

Bill Belichick had a rocky first year with the media in Cleveland. Nevertheless, he did a credible job in urging the Browns to a 6--10 record. His team also finished the season with 21 players who weren't on the roster at the start of the season. That's nearly a 50 percent turnover in personnel. Belichick continued improving his team after the season was over. The Browns signed 11 Plan B players, the most among NFL teams.

Belichick is a big believer in power football, and the Browns' running game will reflect that. Kevin Mack, the best of Cleveland's ballcarriers, rushed for a team-high 726 yards and eight TDs. Leroy Hoard is also a threat (721 yards and 11 rushing and receiving TDs), and to beef up their running game, the Browns used their first-round draft choice to grab Stanford's "Touchdown" Tommy Vardell, a 232-pounder who can block almost as well as he can run and catch dump-off passes. This can only help quarterback Bernie Kosar, who racked up great numbers last year in spite of the Browns' dismal rushing output.

Cleveland came reasonably close to a .500 season in 1991, and with a few breaks--the Brownies lost seven games by a touchdown or less--they could have emerged as winners. With an improved defense, they'll do so this year.

New Steelers head coach Bill Cowher, Kansas City's former defensive coordinator, hasn't exactly inherited an offensive powerhouse. Quarterback Bubby Brister's reconstructive knee surgery could require a long period of rehabilitation, and the league has suspended running back Tim Worley, the club's first-round draft choice of 1989, for the entire season because of a violation of the league's substance-abuse policy.

On defense, All-Pro cornerback Rod Woodson will be the cornerstone of a secondary in dire need of revamping after finishing 26th against the pass. The Steelers were much tougher against the run (11th in the league), but that was partly because of the ease with which opposing passers could throw against them. Pittsburgh should be able to break even this season, but that's about it.

Bengals new head coach David Shula got off to a strange start in his first college draft. Last year Cincinnati's defense was a total catastrophe, giving up 435 points, the most in the NFL. The team's prime need was a topflight cornerback, but Shula opted for Houston quarterback David Klingler, who won't play for at least three years. Boomer Esiason couldn't figure it out, and neither could anyone else. At 31, Esiason isn't even close to retiring.

On the bright side, Shula chose Miami safety Darryl Williams with Cincy's other first-round draft choice and literally stole spectacular Tennessee wide receiver Carl Pickens on the second round. However, without Plan B defector James Brooks, and with oft-injured Ickey Woods having been waived, Cincinnati doesn't appear to have a running game.

Bottom line: The Bengals are doomed to finish last in their division.

John Elway didn't have his typical big year in 1991, but the Broncos stilt managed to win the West and just missed yet another appearance in the Super Bowl. Despite outplaying the Bills in the AFC championship game, the Broncos lost a heartbreaker, 10-7.

Elway wasn't ranked among the league's top-ten passers last season, yet Denver still went from 5--11 in 1990 to 12-4 in 1991. Elway his since had corrective surgery on his right shoulder; throwing deep might become a problem for the rest of his career. That may explain why Denver shocked the draft mavens by selecting UCLA quarterback Tommy Maddox in the first round.

The Broncos' running game flexed some real muscle last year. Running back Gaston Green, obtained from the Rams, had an All-Pro season--and may be even stronger this season. They obviously won't miss Bobby Humphrey, who sulked his way through the season. Sammie Smith, acquired for Humphrey from Miami, will provide a big boost if he has found a cure for last year's rash of fumbles.

Denver's defense will remain formidable despite finishing 19th against the run last year. One reason for that was the Broncos' brutal third-ranked pass defense, which led the AFC with 53 sacks. If Elway is fully recovered, expect the Broncos to repeat as Western Division champions.

The Chiefs' Marty Schottenheimer is starting to remind people of Chuck Knox. Like Knox, Schottenheimer's offense features the run, and like Knox, he wins wherever he goes. In seven years with the Browns and Chiefs, Schottenheimer has taken his teams to the playoffs six times, and I expect him to do so again this year. It won't be easy. Schottenheimer gave up on QB Steve DeBerg and signed Dave Krieg from Seattle. Krieg, who led the conference with a 65.6 completion percentage last year, will appreciate operating behind an offensive line that allowed only 21 sacks. The same gang also opened big holes for K.C.'s running game, which happens to be the team's strength. The Chiefs ranked third in the league in rushing. Christian Okoye (1031 yards last year) often drags three or four tacklers with him before being pulled down. Barry Word (684 yards) is faster and almost as powerful, while Harvey Williams (447 yards) is a speed burner.

Kansas City has a lot going for it on defense, starting with a terrific pair of defensive ends (All-Pro Neil Smith and Bill Maas), accomplished linebacker Derrick Thomas (13-1/2 sacks) and safety Deron Cherry. The Chiefs may not win their division, but they'll be back in the play-off's again.

Raiders head coach Art Shell and his offensive assistant, Terry Robiskie, are two of the NFL's most talented coaches. During the past two years they've managed to get L.A. into the play-offs without an effective quarterback, which speaks a lot for their resourcefulness. Owner Al Davis' latest passing fancy is Todd Marinovich, and it's way too early to predict how he'll turn out. Meanwhile, the Raiders' passing offense finished 25th in the league last year. The running attack wasn't much of a threat, either. But the Raiders have a history of going after disgruntled veterans and signed several this year, tops among them being running back Eric Dickerson, who can still motor, when he makes it onto the field. If he does, he could also prolong the career of running back Marcus Allen by sharing the work load--and the beating.

L.A.'s defense, anchored by two All-Pros, defensive end Greg Townsend (13 sacks) and free safety Ronnie Lott (who led the NFL with eight interceptions), plus defensive end Howie Long (an All-Pro when healthy, which he wasn't last year), is just plain nasty. Still, the Raiders won't go anywhere until a first-rate quarterback leads them there.

The Bobby Beathard era is beginning to take shape in San Diego. The former Washington GM has been stockpiling young talent for the Chargers and has also brought in a new head coach, Georgia Tech's Bobby Ross. There's really no reason to think Ross can't win in the NFL. Before his Yellow Jackets shared the national title with Colorado in. 1990, Ross was also successful at Maryland.

San Diego features a big-back running attack, which finished second in the league last year. All-Pro Marion Butts gained 834 yards and Rod Bernstine added 766; they're both very tough to tackle. A merely mediocre passing attack, the kind you can expect from quarterback John Friesz, should be able to bump up the Chargers' 1991 record of 4--12 to close to .500. Count on Beathard to make it happen.

After a stint as Seattle's general manager, Tom Flores--at the insistence of meddlesome Seahawks owner Ken Behring--has abandoned his front-office duties to replace departed head coach Chuck Knox. In nine years as head coach of the Raiders, Flores posted a 91-54 record that included the team's 1984 Super Bowl victory.

The Seahawks' most pressing problem is at quarterback. With Dave Krieg gone to Kansas City, Seattle is without a single experienced passer and has only one notable wide receiver, Brian Blades (70 receptions for 1003 yards last year), so its passing game needs a total revamping. The same can be said of the Seahawks' ground game. Only John L. Williams (741 yards last year) can be counted on at running back--Derrick Fenner and Derek Loville both signed Plan B contracts and fled town.

Defensive end Jacob Green is expected back for his 13th season, but there's a chance he might retire. If he does, the Seahawks' defense--which finished 15th against the run and tenth against the pass--will be significantly weaker. In hopes of coming up with another quality lineman to go along with massive tackle Cortez Kennedy, Flores gambled on signing a gimpy Keith Millard, whose best years (spent at Minnesota) are all behind him.

Flores is a shrewd leader, so don't assume that the Seahawks will play like the Colts did last year. But with no quarterback to speak of, there's just no way to expect Seattle to improve upon, or even match, last season's 7--9 record.

"Washington will be number one on every opponent's hit list, and it's tough for a target to repeat."

This Season's Winners

National Football Conference

Eastern Division...............Philadelphia Eagles

Central Division...............Chicago Bears

Western Division...............San Francisco 49ers

Wild Cards

Dallas Cowboys / Washington Redskins / New Orleans Saints

NFC Champion...............Philadelphia Eagles

American Football Conference

Eastern Division...............Buffalo Bills

Central Division...............Houston Oilers

Western Division...............Denver Broncos

Wild Cards

Cleveland Browns / Kansas City Chiefs / Los Angeles Raiders

AFC Champion...............Houston Oilers

Super Bowl Champion

Philadelphia Eagles

Playboy's 1992 Pre-Season All-Pro Team

Offense

Jim Kelly, Buffalo....................Quarterback

Barry Sanders, Detroit...............Running Back

Thurman Thomas, Buffalo..............Running Back

Jerry Rice, San Francisco...........Wide Receiver

Michael Irvin, Dallas...............Wide Receiver

Eric Green, Pittsburgh..................Tight End

Jim Lachey, Washington.....................Tackle

Anthony Munoz, Cincinnati..................Tackle

Randall McDaniel, Minnesota.................Guard

Steve Wisniewski, Los Angeles Raiders.......Guard

Bruce Matthews, Houston....................Center

Defense

Reggie White, Philadelphia....................End

William Fuller, Houston.......................End

Michael Dean Perry, Cleveland..............Tackle

Ray Childress, Houston.....................Tackle

Vincent Brown, New England......Inside Linebacker

Cornelius Bennett, Buffalo.....Outside Linebacker

Pat Swilling, New Orleans......Outside Linebacker

Darrell Green, Washington..............Cornerback

Rod Woodson, Pittsburgh................Cornerback

Steve Atwater, Denver......................Safety

Bubba McDowell, Houston....................Safety

Specialties

Rich Camarillo, Phoenix....................Punter

Morten Andersen, New Orleans.........Place Kicker

Reyna Thompson, New York Giants.....Special Teams

Mel Gray, Detroit..........Kick and Punt Returner

Joe Gibbs, Washington..................Head Coach

Eastern Division

National Football Conference

Philadelphia Eagles...............13-3

Dallas Cowboys....................11-5

Washington Redskins...............11-5

New York Giants....................8-8

Phoenix Cardinals.................4-12

Central Division

National Football Conference

Chicago Bears.....................11-5

Detroit Lions......................9-7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers...............9-7

Minnesota Vikings..................7-9

Green Bay Packers.................5-11

Western Division

National Football Conference

San Francisco 49ers...............11-5

New Orleans Saints................10-6

Atlanta Falcons....................9-7

Los Angeles Rams..................5-11

Eastern Division

American Football Conference

Buffalo Bills.....................11-5

New York Jets......................8-8

Miami Dolphins.....................8-8

New England Patriots...............7-9

Indianapolis Colts................5-11

Central Division

American Football Conference

Houston Oilers....................12-4

Cleveland Browns...................9-7

Pittsburgh Steelers................8-8

Cincinnati Bengals................4-12

Sheridan's Odds Against Winning Super Bowl XXVII

Western Division

American Football Conference

Denver Broncos....................11-5

Kansas City Chiefs................10-6

Los Angeles Raiders................9-7

San Diego Chargers.................7-9

Seattle Seahawks..................5-11