Playboy's Pro Football Forecast

forget about the coaching, forget about the draft picks and free agents, this season, the six franchise quarterbacks will determine who goes to the super bowl

One Super Bowl ring makes you a champion. Two make you an expert. Jimmy Johnson has the rings and an opinion: Quarterbacks win. Games. Championships. Hearts. Success always starts with the trigger. At least it has for Johnson.

Had it not been for All-Americas Bernie Kosar, Vinny Testaverde and Steve Walsh during Johnson's reign at the University of Miami in the Eighties, he still might be on campus coaching the Hurricancs. He would not have won the games, bowls and national championship that so enthralled Jerry Jones in Dallas. Had it not been for Troy Aikman, Johnson still might be coaching the Cowboys. He would not have won the two Super Bowls that ignited the power struggle between owner and coach deep in the heart of Texas.

Give Johnson a quarterback and he'll give you championship visions. Which is what the Miami Dolphins have in 1998 with Johnson on the sideline and Dan Marino on the field.

"The quarterback," Johnson says, "is 90 percent of the equation."

So forget the four coaching changes around the NFL this season. Forget the millions of dollars pumped into free agency. Forget the infusion of some 200 draft picks in April. It's all cosmetic. Fantasy says 30 teams enter the 1998 season with a shot. Reality says there are only six--the six with franchise quarterbacks.

You know the names. You've seen them in Super Bowls. You've seen them in Pro Bowls. You've seen them on various magazine covers. Troy Aikman: three Super Bowl rings. Brett Favre: three NFL MVP awards. Steve Young: six NFL passing titles. John Elway: an NFL-record 138 career victories. Dan Marino: pro football's all-time passer in yards and touchdowns. Drew Bledsoe: two Pro Bowls.

When you assemble the Super Bowl contenders in this or any other season, start with the franchise QBs and their teams: Dallas, Green Bay, San Francisco, Denver, Miami and New England. They have accounted for 20 division titles, eight conference championships and six Super Bowls in the Nineties. A Favre or a Young gives his team the ability and confidence to win any game, anywhere, any time. Especially in January.

"The quarterback is what allows you to be better than average," Johnson says. "If you're going to make the playoffs, he's going to have to make a few plays. If you're going to go all the way, he's going to have to make a lot of plays. Quarterbacking is 90 percent of what dictates how far you go."

Trent Dilfer and Scott Mitchell are playoff-caliber quarterbacks. But franchise quarterbacks? Hardly. The same goes for Jeff George and Brad Johnson. If you want admission to this club, you need to play one of those late-January dates. Like Marino. Then win there. Like Favre. Then go again. Like Aikman. Then go again and again. Like Elway.

"One win may separate you from the pack," Aikman says. "But I think it takes more than one before you really sit there and say, 'Now I've accomplished something.'"

That's why Dallas, Denver, Green Bay, Miami, New England and San Francisco are the favorites, once more, in 1998. Quarterbacks win. But there is hope on the horizon for the have-nots. The club may be expanding soon. Mark Brunell at Jacksonville appears poised for entry in 1998. So does Kordell Stewart at Pittsburgh. Further down the road is Jake Plummer at Arizona. And both Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf stroll onto the NFL landscape this fall. Maybe one day they will realize the franchise potential that made them the top two picks of the 1998 NFL draft.

Until then, stick with the Big Six. Or Seven.

Commission a bust of Aikman for Canton today if he never throws another pass in the NFL. Not even Joe Montana won three Super Bowls in four years, as Aikman did from 1992 to 1995. With an 11-2 career playoff record, he has mastered the big game. But age has deprived his Cowboys of the legs to win enough little games to reach the big ones.

Jerry Jones gambled all of his salary-cap dollars on the star system. He spent lavishly to keep a small nucleus of superstars with stars on their helmets. Early in the decade he decided to ride this winner until it dropped. So Jones has his bandwagon hitched to many of the same horses America's Team rode to that first Super Bowl in 1992: Aikman, Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin, Daryl Johnston, Erik Williams, Nate Newton and Kevin Smith.

But Aikman is now 31. Irvin and Johnston are 32. Newton is 36. Williams turns 30 in September. Emmitt Smith is 29 and running in quicksand these days. Deion Sanders, the one impact addition made by Jones in the NFL's free-agency era, also is 31. A 6--10 collapse in 1997 taught Jones what the Green Bay dynasty learned in the Sixties and what Pittsburgh learned in the Seventies: Greatness ages, and not always gracefully. The salary cap has made this a young man's game, and the Cowboys are trying to compete as graybeards.

Stuck with the same players, Jones has changed his approach. Out went easy rider Barry Switzer as head coach, and in came Chan Gailey, the offensive whiz who created the Slash persona for Kordell Stewart in Pittsburgh. Out goes the Dallas power offense, in comes the shotgun with finesse-spiced four- and five-receiver sets. The Cowboys have always placed the pigskin in the hands of Aikman during the postseason. Now they are giving him the ball in the regular season as well. But Aikman doesn't play defense. He can't (continued on page 146)Pro Football Forecast(continued from page 110) rush the passer. He can't stop the run. Defense will determine if Aikman hits the field for any big games this January.

The Washington Redskins also struggle to stop the run. That's a fatal flaw in football's premiere power division. That's why Norv Turner hasn't given the nation's capital a playoff game in his four seasons as coach. The best Washington has finished in run defense during the Turner era is 27th.

But the Redskins patched that pothole in their playoff portfolio with two bold strokes: acquiring defensive tackles Dana Stubblefield in free agency and Dan "Big Daddy" Wilkinson by trade. Stubblefield was the NFL's defensive player of the year in 1997 at San Francisco. Wilkinson was the number one overall pick of the 1994 NFL draft by Cincinnati. They bring big bodies (a combined 630 pounds) and bigger wallets (a combined $57 million in new contracts) to the middle of the Washington defense. The Redskins finished 8-7-1 without them in 1997. With them, the team is the NFC East favorite.

The Giants capitalized on a soft, last-place schedule in 1997 to vault from worst to first in the NFC East. But life becomes more taxing for the Big Blue this fall with a first-place schedule that includes games against Denver, Green Bay, Kansas City and San Francisco. Coach Jim Fassel needs Danny Kanell to take longer, bolder strides in his development as an NFL quarterback. Kanell will benefit from a full season with flashy wide-out Ike Hilliard, who missed most of his rookie year due to a neck injury.

The NFL's top candidate for a worst-to-first transformation in 1998 is Arizona. In Jake Plummer, the Cardinals have a gangly gunslinger who, coming out of college, drew comparisons to Joe Montana. Plummer didn't disappoint, throwing 14 touchdown passes in his nine NFL starts. He torched the Giants for 388 yards in November and the Redskins for 337 in December. The Cardinals procured help for Plummer this season in 1000-yard rusher Adrian Murrell, who was acquired by trade from the Jets. On defense, the Cardinals bulked up by drafting end Andre Wadsworth with the third overall pick. You want a sleeper in 1998? It's the Cardinals.

Philadelphia's Ray Rhodes will coach every ounce of ability out of his roster. His teams always overachieve. But the Eagles' talent level is skidding along a plateau. Bobby Hoying is a huge question mark at quarterback. Charlie Garner is another at halfback. Irving Fryar is the team's best offensive weapon, and he turns 36 this September. Hugh Douglas gives the Eagles speed in their pass rush and Bill Johnson offers size to their run defense. But if the Eagles can't score, it won't matter.

The Packers are discovering what the Cowboys and the 49ers have known for years: Success has a price. The more championships you win, the more players you lose. It's impossible to keep a dynasty intact in a salary-cap world. Everyone else wants your players and is eager to overpay for them.

Consecutive Super Bowl appearances took a mighty swipe out of the Green Bay roster this off-season when the Pack lost four starters and a punter. Contributors, one and all, but they were members of the supporting cast nonetheless: cornerback Doug Evans, defensive end Gabe Wilkins, safety Eugene Robinson, guard Aaron Taylor and punter Craig Hentrich. To retain them would have cost the Packers $62 million in contract commitments, money that general manager Ron Wolf decided would be better spent on difference makers such as LeRoy Butler, Dorsey Levens and Antonio Freeman.

"We expected some action," admits Packers coach Mike Holmgren of the free-agent battering his team took. "I thought we might be able to compete for a couple of the guys. But the contracts were just incredible. They all had to do what they did."

Those defections have chipped away at the deepest roster in football and left the Packers a vulnerable champion, not only in the conference but in the division. Tampa Bay now has every bit the championship strut that Green Bay has at 21 of the 22 starting positions. The difference is, obviously, at quarterback. Favre is a Hall of Famer, Trent Dilfer is not. Down the stretch and into the postseason, when Favre was powering the Packers to the Super Bowl with his prolific right arm, Dilfer was not. In Dilfer's final 11 games of the 1997 regular season and postseason, he threw only 11 touchdown passes. During his final 11 games, Favre tossed 22 of them. That's what separates a Super Bowl contender from a playoff contender.

Buccaneers general manager Rich McKay has craftily eased Dilfer's load. McKay's drafts have produced a thunder-and-lightning backfield tandem of Pro Bowlers Mike Alstott and Warrick Dunn. Now McKay has given Dilfer a legitimate go-to guy on the flank in Bert Emanuel, signing him away from the Atlanta Falcons in free agency. The NFL's number three defense also improved with the selection of Southern Cal's Brian Kelly in the draft. Kelly gives Tampa Bay a big corner to line up against the Redwood receivers in the division, such as Herman Moore, Cris Carter and Jake Reed. But the NFC Central race still comes down to the quarterbacks. Favre or Dilfer? Give the nod to Favre. If he has a fourth consecutive MVP season, the Green Bay Packers will return to the Super Bowl.

Offense is the song this division sings. Detroit has the best runner of his time and maybe all time in Barry Sanders. His four consecutive 1500-yard seasons, including a Herculean 2000-yard effort in 1997, give the Lions a Jim Brown-type supremacy on the ground. Detroit backs up Sanders with sure-handed Herman Moore, who has a streak of three consecutive 100-catch seasons. But when you talk about receivers, start with the Vikings. Minnesota has almost as many pass catchers as it has lakes. The trifecta of Carter, Reed and newcomer Randy Moss could give even Deion Sanders a sleepless night. How does a defense cover all that size (all are 6'3" or taller) plus the sprinter speed of Moss? Does it double up on Carter, who caught 13 touchdown passes in 1997? Or on Moss, who snared twice that at Marshall?

Both the Lions and the Vikings should score points aplenty. But, again, look to the quarterbacks. In a big game do you want Favre or Detroit's Scott Mitchell? Minnesota's Brad Johnson? Detroit and Minnesota also have craters on defense. The Lions struggle against the run, the Vikings against the pass. The Packers, for that matter, must find a pass rush now that Wilkins is gone and Reggie White is a press conference away from retirement. Reinforcements come in the form of number one draft pick Vonnie Holliday and former Tampa Bay number one Eric Curry.

The Bears need a quarterback. They also need a few more blockers, another pass rusher or two, a big-play receiver, another cover corner--all of which separates Chicago from the four playoff contenders in the division. First-round draft pick Curtis Enis gives the Bears a chance to run the ball, which will be a life preserver this fall for quarterback Erik Kramer and a short-staffed defense. But Chicago will still be two drafts away from contention.

The reality of mediocrity descends on the NFL's greatest dynasty. Since the advent of the salary cap, the off-seasons have been tougher on the San Francisco 49ers than the seasons have been, and last spring was the worst yet.

San Francisco lost its best defender (tackle Dana Stubblefield) in free agency. Also accepting more dollars elsewhere were its leading scorer (kicker Gary Anderson) and its fullback (William Floyd). A Pro Bowl tight end (Brent Jones), middle linebacker (Gary Plummer) and the guardian of Steve Young's blind side (tackle Kirk Scrafford) all retired, and age caught up with perennial Pro Bowl corner Rod Woodson. His 33-year-old legs were banished back East. Not that the roster as a whole is getting any younger. Other mainstays showing their wear: Steve Young turns 37 this season, Jerry Rice is 36, Tim McDonald is 33 and Ken Norton is 32.

But there is no panic in San Francisco. The 49ers continue jogging along uncontested in the NFC West. San Francisco captured the division by six games in 1997 as Atlanta, Carolina, New Orleans and St. Louis all finished below .500. The 49ers went 8--0 in the division and 5--3 against everyone else. An 8--0 gives San Francisco a titanic jump on the rest of the NFC in the sprint for home-field advantage. Green Bay doesn't have that luxury in the NFC Central, nor does Dallas in the NFC East. So the 49ers remain in position to contend for Super Bowls whether they want to or not.

Credit Young. He ran away with his sixth NFL passing title last year with a 104.7 efficiency rating. Against the NFC West alone, the efficiency rating zoomed to 119.5. Young threw 14 of his 19 touchdown passes against the NFC West with only two interceptions. He is the difference in a division of backseat quarterbacks: Tony Banks at St. Louis, Chris Chandler at Atlanta, Kerry Collins at Carolina and Billy Joe Hobert at New Orleans.

Rice played in only one of San Francisco's 13 victories last season. He's back after two knee injuries. The 49ers also upgraded themselves defensively with the free-agent signings of cornerback Antonio Langham from Baltimore and linebacker Winfred Tubbs from New Orleans. Tubbs was the leading tackler on the NFL's fourth-ranked defense. The Super Bowl days may be over for the 49ers, but the NFC West remains their exclusive property until further notice.

Somebody has to challenge the 49ers, and the Saints seem as good a bet as any. OK, Hobert doesn't intimidate anyone. But the New Orleans defense does, even without Tubbs. The Saints have the NFL's best pass rush, led by tackles Wayne Martin and Joe Johnson. New Orleans improved itself at the expense of its lodge brothers by signing corner-back Tyronne Drakeford away from the 49ers and safety Chad Cota from the Panthers. Coach Mike Ditka is building an offensive line in his own image with number one draft picks Chris Naeole and Kyle Turley. Tough, tough guys.

Annually, Dan Reeves coaxes more from less than any other coach in the business. He did that once again at Atlanta in his first season with the 7--9 Falcons. But Chandler is a journeyman. He puts a lid on any achievement by the Falcons. The loss of wide receiver Bert Emanuel in free agency cost Atlanta its best weapon, but top draft pick Keith Brooking brings much-needed size and speed to the defensive front seven.

The Panthers are trying to buy their way back into contention, spending $ 18.5 million in signing bonuses alone to lure defensive tackle Sean Gilbert from the Redskins, cornerback Doug Evans from the Packers and linebacker Kevin Greene back from the 49ers. But offense, not defense, was the problem in Carolina's collapse last season from conference runner-up to division also-ran. The Panthers need to be smarter with their money.

Banks has fumbled 36 times and has thrown 28 interceptions in his two seasons as the starting quarterback for the Rams. Enough young bodies are in place for St. Louis to compete--most notably receivers Isaac Bruce and Eddie Kennison, pass rushers Kevin Carter and Grant Wistrom, and safeties Keith Lyle and Toby Wright. But only Banks can make the Rams a contender.

•

Perseverance finally paid off for John Elway. In his 15th NFL season, 240th career game and fourth Super Bowl, Elway finally won his first championship last January. All of America (except Wisconsin) was pulling for him. Now the weight of that public support shifts to Dan Marino. Like Elway, Marino was a member of that fabulous quarterbacking Class of 1983. Like Elway's, Marino's Hall of Fame career needs a championship for proper closure. He lost in his only Super Bowl appearance in 1985 and hasn't been back since.

Jimmy Johnson has been to the big game and won there. He knows the road and its shortcuts. Three solid drafts have fortified the Dolphins as a contender, but youth is not Marino's friend. He's 37 this season. A torn Achilles tendon in 1993 robbed him of what little mobility he once had. This may be Marino's last shot at a championship. It also may be his best shot. There isn't a great team out there like the Joe Montana 49ers he faced in that 1985 Super Bowl. Marino also won't have to do it all by himself as he has so often in the past. Johnson has changed offensive coordinators, replacing Gary Stevens with Kippy Brown, and decreed that Miami run the ball in 1998.

The Dolphins were a flawed entry in 1997. They ranked 29th in the NFL in rushing and 26th in defense. Knee injuries cost Miami big-play receiver Yatil Green for the season, plus fullback Stanley Pritchett and pass rusher Danny Stubbs for all but a handful of games. Yet the Dolphins came within a field goal of beating New England in the season finale, winning the division and hosting a playoff game.

Now the Patriots have taken a giant step backward with the loss of Pro Bowl halfback Curtis Martin to the New York Jets. The Dolphins have taken a bounding leap forward with the return of Green, Pritchett and Stubbs, the signing of free agents Kevin Donnalley on offense and Brock Marion on defense, and the arrival of top draft pick John Avery as a Warrick Dunn-type weapon on third downs and special teams. If the Dolphins can milk 1600 rushing yards from their tailback tandem of Karim Abelul-Jabbar and Lawrence Phillips, Marino could be Super Bowl bound.

" We have got players who can win," Johnson says, "and they're only going to get better."

New England also has players who can win. The nucleus remains from a team that played in the Super Bowl just two Januarys ago. Drew Bledsoe authenticates that contender status. But losing Martin is a staggering blow. Over his three NFL seasons, Martin has averaged 1266 yards and 12 touchdowns for the Patriots. That's a chunk out of any offense. New England hopes to replace him with rookie Robert Edwards.

But rookies tend to fumble (Barry Sanders gave up the ball a career-high ten times in his rookie season), and a ten-win team like the Patriots doesn't have the luxury of turnovers.

The Jets have Martin. But they don't have Bledsoe. Glenn Foley isn't even a reasonable facsimile. But the Jets will run the ball, control the clock and play aggressive defense. Bill Parcells demands it. That will make them a playoff contender, though they could use a few mashers along the offensive front and more size in the secondary.

The Colts and the Bills have new quarterbacks. Indianapolis drafted Peyton Manning and Buffalo traded for Rob Johnson. The two teams also have new coaches. The Colts hired Jim Mora out of a TV booth and the Bills promoted Wade Phillips from their defensive staff. But Buffalo took some huge hits in free agency, losing Pro Bowl pass rusher Bryce Paup to Jacksonville, top cover man Jeff Burris to the Colts and starting guard Corbin Lacina to Carolina.

Lindy Infante invested in youth at Indianapolis last season, starting rookie offensive linemen Tarik Glenn and Adam Meadows and cornerback Monty Montgomery. It probably cost him his job as head coach. Now Mora will benefit. Halfback Marshall Faulk, tight end Ken Dilger and speedy rookie wideouts Jerome Pathon and E.G. Green give both Manning and Mora a chance for some early success.

The AFC Central is the only division without a franchise quarterback. But top to bottom, the Central has the best quarterbacking in the NFL.

Start with Jacksonville's Mark Brunell, who went to the AFC championship game in 1996 and won an AFC passing title in 1997. Then there's Kordell Stewart, who passed for more touchdowns last year than Dan Marino did and ran for more than Emmitt Smith did. He took Pittsburgh to the AFC title game in 1997 in his first season as a starter. Jim Harbaugh took Indianapolis to the 1995 AFC title game and won an NFL passing crown that same season. Now he's quarterbacking the Baltimore Ravens. Steve McNair also has franchise potential. At least the Tennessee Oilers thought so when they made him the third overall pick of the 1995 draft. And Cincinnati's Jeff Blake started in the Pro Bowl as recently as 1996.

Mark Brunell is the AFC's Steve Young, right down to his jersey number, left-handed delivery and scrambling style. Mike Holmgren had a hand in developing both quarterbacks, coaching Young as an offensive coordinator at San Francisco and Brunell as the head man in Green Bay. Brunell and Young are too similar for Brunell not to experience the same successes Young has had. That means Super Bowls. Brunell is championship caliber right now, but his team is only three years old. Jaguars coach Tom Coughlin has done a marvelous job of building a contender around Brunell and hopes the final element has been locked into place with the selection of halfback Fred Taylor in the 1998 draft. The Jaguars need a 1000-yard rusher to relax the defensive focus on Brunell and his Pro Bowl wideouts Keenan McCardell and Jimmy Smith.

But what continues to separate Jacksonville from perennial division champ Pittsburgh is defense. The Steelers have it, the Jaguars don't. Unable to develop a Pro Bowl defender on their own, the Jaguars bought one in free agency with the signing of linebacker Bryce Paup this off-season. That's one. The Steelers countered with linebacker Levon Kirkland, tackle Joel Steed and safety Carnell Lake. Pittsburgh also improved its defense in free agency by signing cornerback Dewayne Washington away from the Vikings.

But the real key to Pittsburgh's season remains Stewart. If Stewart develops as a starter in his second season the way he did in his first, he could beat Brunell to a Super Bowl. Defenses are still scared to death of his legs. His 74-yard touchdown run against Baltimore last year was the third longest by a quarterback in NFL history. Few defensive backs, much less linemen and linebackers, can run with him. But Stewart matured as a passer as the season progressed and even won a December shootout against John Elway with a 300-yard performance. An emerging Stewart gives Pittsburgh the most complete team in the AFC.

"Some of the mistakes Kordell made last year he won't make this year," Steelers coach Bill Cowher said. "He's the real deal."

The Oilers have been gradually surrounding Steve McNair with the weapons he needs to compete with the elite. They drafted a running game in 1996 with Eddie George. Then they built a passing tree in 1998 by signing wide receiver Yancey Thigpen and tight end Jackie Harris in free agency, and drafting wide receiver Kevin Dyson. Like Stewart, McNair enters his second season as a starter in 1998. Increased options should accelerate his development as a top-flight passer. But Tennessee also lags behind Pittsburgh on defense. The Oilers have the best safety tandem in the AFC in Blaine Bishop and Marcus Robertson but they need a shutdown corner and a home-run hitter in the pass rush.

The Ravens are building a defense to compete with the Steelers. Their last three number one draft picks--linebackers Ray Lewis in 1996 and Peter Boulware in 1997, and cornerback Duane Starks in 1998--have Pro Bowl qualities. Lewis gives the Ravens a chance against the run, Boulware in the pass rush and Starks against the pass. Baltimore's offensive line is one of the best in football. But to challenge in 1998, the Ravens need career revivals by newcomers Harbaugh, halfback Errict Rhett and fullback Roosevelt Potts in the offensive backfield.

Speaking of revivals, Cincinnati coach Bruce Coslet needs to remind Blake of his skills. He went from the Pro Bowl in 1996 to the bench in 1997. The retirement of Boomer Esiason puts Blake back on the field in 1998. The Bengals can run with Corey Dillon, catch with Carl Pickens and Darnay Scott and play defense with five first-round draft picks. But to win, Blake needs a wake-up call.

•

Kansas City's Marty Schottenheimer knows the value of franchise quarterbacks--and the pain of playing against them. He has fielded 11 playoff teams in his 13 years as an NFL head coach, but an inability to defeat those franchise quarterbacks has prevented Schottenheimer teams from reaching a Super Bowl. His teams have been eliminated from the postseason three times by Dan Marino, three times by John Elway and twice by Jim Kelly.

But lost in the euphoria of Denver's Super Bowl conquest was the fact that the best team in football wasn't even the best team in its own division. The Chiefs beat the Broncos on the way to the AFC West title in 1997. The Chiefs also beat Super Bowl champions Green Bay in 1996 and San Francisco in 1994. The Chiefs have proved they can beat the best. They just can't seem to do it when it matters most.

That said, the best team in the AFC West will be better in 1998.

Kansas City has added veteran Pro Bowl defensive linemen Chester Mc-Glockton and Leslie O'Neal, plus wide receiver Derrick Alexander in free agency. The Chiefs already have one of the best secondaries in football. Now McGlockton toughens them up against the run, and O'Neal joins Derrick Thomas for a stereo pass rush.

The Chiefs won 13 times last season despite the six-game absence of starting quarterback Elvis Grbac, out with a broken clavicle. He's back and healthy, and the arrival of his former college battery-mate Alexander takes the heat off Andre Rison to make all the plays downfield for the Chiefs. Alexander caught nine touchdown passes in Baltimore last year. Marcus Allen retired, which leaves a canyon in the backfield. So Kansas City will go with a big-back attack featuring fullback Donnell Bennett as the lead ball carrier.

The Broncos lost starters Allen Aldridge and Brian Habib in free agency and sweated threats of retirement by Elway and Pro Bowl pass blocker Gary Zimmerman into the summer. The running of Terrell Davis will continue to make the Broncos a contender, but Denver needs the arm of Elway to harbor any hopes of a repeat. This was not a team built to last--not with 12 starters in their 30s.

There are better offenses and defenses than those of the Seattle Seahawks. But there are few better spenders. The past two off-seasons, Seahawks owner Paul Allen has written checks for $27 million in signing bonuses alone for free agents. Seattle has added a pass rusher (Chad Brown), a running back (Ricky Watters), a coverman (Willie Williams) and blockers (Kevin Glover and Brian Habib). But when are the wheels going to fall off quarterback Warren Moon? He turns 42 this season.

Al Davis believes in the vertical stretch. He likes to air it out on offense with big-armed quarterbacks. Jon Gruden is a disciple of the West Coast offense. He likes quick drops and quick throws by his passers. His scheme asks the receivers to do the work. Those contrasting philosophies were wedded in 1998 when Davis hired Gruden to coach his underachieving Raiders. Gruden offers solutions on offense. But the Raiders need answers on defense, where they ranked last in the NFL in 1997. The Raiders took a step forward with the drafting of Heisman Trophy-winning cornerback Charles Woodson but took another step backward with the defection of McGlockton to Kansas City.

San Diego has a future with quarterback Ryan Leaf. But close your eyes on the present. This is the worst team in the AFC and it's without a first-round pick in the next two drafts. General manager Bobby Beathard patched some holes around Leaf in free agency by signing John Jackson and Aaron Taylor for the offensive line and Natrone Means for the backfield. But this talent is light years removed from the juggernaut the Chargers fielded in 1994 when they were the AFC's best.

Playboy's Picks

• • • • • • • • A F C • • • • • • • •

Eastern Division: Dolphins

Central Division: Steelers

Western Division: Chiefs

Wild Cards: Broncos, Jaguars, Patriots

AFC Champion: Steelers over Dolphins

• • • • • • • • N F C • • • • • • • •

Eastern Division: Redskins

Central Division: Packers

Western Division: 49ers

Wild Cards: Buccaneers, Cowboys, Lions

NFC Champion: Packers over Buccaneers

• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

Super Bowl

Steelers over Packers

National Football Conference

Eastern Division

N***

Washington..................10-6

Dallas*......................9-7

NY Giants....................8-8

Arizona.....................7--9

Philadelphia...............6--10

*Wild-card team

It's impossible to keep a dynasty intact in a salary-cap world. Everyone else wants your players.

National Footaball Conference

Central Division

N***

Green Bay .................11--5

Tampa Bay*.................10--6

Detroit*....................9--7

Minnesota...................8--8

Chicago....................5--11

*Wild-card team

National Footabll Conference

Western Division

N***

San Francisco..............10--6

New Orleans.................8--8

Atlanta.....................7--9

Carolina...................6--10

St. Louis..................5--11

American Football Conference

Eastern Division

***A***

Miami......................11--5

New England*................9--7

NY Jets.....................9--7

Indianapolis................7--9

Buffalo....................4--12

*Wild-card team

American Football Conference

Central Division

***A***

Pittsburgh.................11--5

Jacksonville*..............10--6

Tennessee...................9--7

Baltimore..................6--10

Cincinnati.................6--10

*Wild-card team

American Football Conference

Western Division

***A***

Kansas City................11--5

Denver*....................10--6

Seattle.....................8--8

Oakland....................6--10

San Diego..................4--12

*Wild-card team