Playboy's 2000 Baseball Preview

Welcome to arena ball. It's a wild-swinging flurry of grand slams, indoor fireworks, four-hour slow-pitch blowouts and line drives ricocheting off gun-shy pitchers. Every team calls to the bullpen five or six times a game, leaving plenty of opportunities for commercials or nachos. Middle infielders launch moon shots to the opposite field. Excuse-me swings manage to reach what used to be the cheap seats. It's a circus, a comedy, a pinball game.

If you're not from Chicago or Miami or Pittsburgh, you probably never gave Brant Brown much thought. But last June 9 he homered over the right field roof at Tiger Stadium. In 61 years, only 36 home run balls were hit out of the park, nine in the last four years. And no one would confuse Brown with Reggie Jackson: Brant has hit only 40 home runs over four seasons. But his Detroit homer exemplifies what arena ball is all about. For the past five years, balls have rocketed out of big-league parks at an improbable rate. Runs haven't been scored at this rate since the Thirties.

Smaller parks and a shrinking strike zone have played a part, but offense has flourished thanks largely to the jackrabbit ball. The numbers since 1994 prove we're in a new live-ball era. Last year, 2.28 home runs were hit per game, the highest rate ever (the previous record was set in 1996). More runs were scored per game than in any year since 1936.

And pitchers are paying a price. Since 1900, 81 teams have had ERAs of 5.00 or greater. Thirty-three of those teams--41 percent--played in the past six years. In the 20th century, eight teams had ERAs of 6.00 or greater, and two of those teams played in the past four seasons.

One hundred runs batted in used to be a benchmark of a good hitter. Not anymore. Last season, 58 players drove in 100 or more runs. Thirty homers used to mean something, too. In 1992 Fred McGriff led the NL with 35 home runs. Since 1876, 30 or more homers were hit 804 times. More than a quarter of those 30-homer seasons came since 1993. Last season alone, 44 players did it. In baseball history, the 50-homer plateau has been reached 29 times--eight in the past five years.

Arena ball cheapens the accomplishments of Hall of Famers such as Hank Aaron, Roberto Clemente (who never hit 30 homers in a season) and Harmon Killebrew. The Yanks had four players drive in 100 runs or more: the first time that has happened since 1939. Cleveland's Manny Ramirez--the first player with more than 160 RBI in a season since Jimmie Foxx--drove in 165 runs in 147 games.

In May the Rockies scored in every inning of a 13--6 win at Wrigley, tying a major league record. On May 19 at Colorado, hitters grew giddy tallying a record 81 total bases in a 24--12 Reds win. On September 4, Cincinnati hit a record nine home runs in a 22--3 win at Philadelphia (and hit five more the next day). Three days later the Diamondbacks and Brewers used a record-tying 15 pitchers in an 11--9 Arizona victory. How many nachos can one man eat?

Cam Bonifay, general manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates, thinks it's time to do something to help pitchers. "Look at the ball again," he says. "Look at the winding of the ball and the hard cover of the ball. Look at the strike zone. And raise the pitching mound. It will also reduce stress on pitchers' arms." But don't people want to see all this offense? "Changing things might take away the cheap home runs," says Bonifay, "but the big home run hitters are still going to hit them."

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Atlanta won 103 games last year, despite mediocre seasons from Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine and the absence of Javy Lopez and Andres Galarraga. This season Braves GM John Schuerholz improved his team immensely with a six-player trade with the Padres. The Braves have good young talent. We think it's their turn. The Yankees have been relatively free from injuries the past two seasons. They've won a remarkable 12 straight World Series games. But David Cone and Roger Clemens are now in their late 30s, and Paul O'Neill and Tino Martinez are showing signs of age. Only three teams--the 1936--39 Yankees, the 1949--53 Yankees and the 1972--74 Athletics--won more than two straight Series. We don't think the Yankees will pull off a threepeat. The Indians, obviously, will take the AL Central, though Kansas City and Chicago show signs of life. The two western divisions are tough to call. Arizona has enough pitching to hold off the Giants and Dodgers in the NL West. In the AL West, three teams--Texas, Oakland and Seattle--have a legitimate shot at winning. On the strength of the Rangers' retooled pitching rotation, Texas should prevail. Look for the A's to get the AL wild-card slot. The NL Central is a lot tougher to call than it was a year ago. Houston's improved outfield and solid pitching should carry them to the NL division title. With the addition of Ken Griffey Jr., the Reds have enough to edge the Mets and Cards for the wild (continued on page 142)Baseball Preview(continued from page 124) card. Who will be the AL MVP? How about Derek Jeter? In the NL, we'll go with Jeff Bagwell, who will enjoy hitting in Enron Field.

American League East

When Tampa Bay's John Flaherty drove in Fred McGriff in the ninth inning at Yankee Stadium on July 21, Mariano Rivera was finished giving up runs for 1999. Of the 62 first batters Rivera faced coming out of the bullpen last season, three got hits. Of the 27 runners he inherited, he allowed only five to score. But Rivera--who broke three of Ryan Klesko's bats in one at-bat in the final game of the World Series--isn't the only Bronx star. Derek Jeter hit .349 and scored 134 runs and was rewarded this winter with a $10 million contract. Bernie Williams hit .342 and drove in 115. Ricky Ledee will become the Yankees' best left fielder since Dave Winfield. The Yanks' starting rotation, with Orlando Hernandez, Roger Clemens and the AL's best home pitcher, David Cone, still has mettle. Lefty Ed Yarnall--who the Yankees robbed from the Marlins--will most likely be the fifth starter. Joe Torre has become one of the game's best managers. No wonder the Yankees play like gangbusters in prime time, going 22--3 in the past two postseasons. In the past four Octobers, the Yankees are 35--10, which is tough to do even against the Twins. If the Yanks are getting a bit gray in certain positions, they're stocked with minor-leaguers. There's awesome young talent in first baseman Nick Johnson and shortstop Alfonso Soriano. If the team avoids injuries again, Gotham will host another World Series.

Who allowed the fewest runs in the American League in 1999? Boston, of course. The Red Sox also gave up the least walks and had the most strikeouts in the league. But Boston's pitchers were backed by the worst infield in the bigs. With Jose Offerman and Mike Stanley leading the way, the Bosox had the second-fewest fielding chances and were the worst at turning the double play. Jason Varitek will become a good catcher, but Boston was last in the majors with 31 passed balls last year. And AL batting champ Nomar Garciaparra shouldn't remind anyone of Mark Belanger. With Pedro Martinez at the top, pitching remains Boston's strong suit. The acquisition of Carl Everett from Houston gives Boston its best center fielder since Fred Lynn. But there are signs of trouble in Beantown: Tom Gordon will miss the season with an elbow injury. Bret Saberhagen is out until the break, and Ramon Martinez is still a question mark. Jimy Williams was a genius as manager last year--the Red Sox were the best pinch-hitting team in the AL--but the Bostons are due for a return to earth.

Even though star Shawn Green was traded to Los Angeles, the Toronto Blue Jays still have a formidable lineup with Shannon Stewart (perhaps the league's best leadoff batter), Carlos Delgado (44 HRs and 134 RBI), former Dodger Raul Mondesi and surprising young second baseman Homer Bush (.320 and 32 SBs). (Why does Delgado, who led the AL in errors at first base, play in the field, and David Segui, a great gloveman, appear as DH?) Jose Cruz Jr.--who played well in winter ball--will get another shot in center, but only because Vernon Wells (who hit .334 in the minors last year) benefits from a full year in Triple A. Shortstop Tony Batista has the greatest batting stance in the majors. He also hit more homers (31) last season than Derek Jeter or Nomar Garciaparra. This year he'll probably move to third. The pen is shaky. Billy Koch is impressive but young, and Lance Painter and Paul Quantrill don't inspire confidence. With Joey Hamilton and Chris Carpenter coming off surgery, the rotation could also be a problem. If the Jays don't get off to a fast start, look for an early trade of either David Wells or shortstop Alex Gonzalez.

The Orioles go into the 2000 season with one of the league's oldest lineups and biggest payrolls--and little hope of contending in the East. Owner Peter Angelos quashed what faint chance the Orioles had when he backed away from signing free-agent pitcher Aaron Sele. The starting staff, led by Mike Mussina (who the O's must re-sign), Scott Erickson and Sidney Ponson, will be the team's strength, but it's not good enough to carry an aging lineup. Albert Belle should put up better numbers this year, but graybeards Brady Anderson, Cal Ripken, Mike Bordick and B.J. Surhoff aren't likely to match last year's output. The O's need to start rebuilding, but they're hemmed in by long-term contracts. Prospects Jerry Hairston, Cal Pickering, Gene Kingsale and Matt Riley should get good looks this year. And with seven of the top 50 picks in last summer's amateur draft, Baltimore will soon have more talent in the pipeline.

Stung by a 33 percent drop in attendance, the Devil Rays got busy. They brought in two big boppers, Vinny Castilla and Greg Vaughn (who combined for 78 HRs and 220 RBI last season), and a leadoff hitter in ex-Brave Gerald Williams. Castilla and Vaughn will team with Fred McGriff and Jose Canseco to form an indoor murderer's row--as long as Canseco's not in a body cast by June, Vaughn's gimpy knees hold up on the turf and Castilla's bat has pop at sea level. The Rays also added Juan Guzman and Steve Trachsel to shore up a rotation that had the third-highest ERA in the league last season. Tampa has a strong pen, anchored by Roberto Hernandez (who converted 43 of 47 save opportunities). The Rays will make a lot of highlight reels, but they'll be hard-pressed to get out of the basement in a tough division.

American League Central

Time is running out for Indians general manager John Hart. Manny Ramirez has one season left on his contract, and key players--Sandy Alomar, Kenny Lofton, Dave Justice, Travis Fryman--are closer to their pensions. The Tribe can definitely hit: The team scored 1009 runs last season, the most since Boston scored 1027 in 1950. New manager Charlie Manuel will inspire his players in a way Mike Hargrove couldn't. But the problem is pitching, as Cleveland's postseason debacle showed. Chuck Finley and Cuban newcomer Danys Baez will help, but Jaret Wright has moved backward since 1997. Now that Mike Jackson and his 39 saves have departed for Philadelphia, the key to the Indians' chances will be the bullpen health of Paul Shuey (who has converted only 19 of 32 save opportunities in his career) and Steve Karsay (who has only one career save) and a return to form by Ricardo Rincon. (Also keep an eye on rookie relievers Sean DePaula and David Riske.) New owner Larry Dolan is willing to spend to field a winner, but can Hart resist the temptation to swap young talent for veteran mediocrity?

"The Kids Can Play" was the White Sox' marketing slogan, but the kids weren't good in the field (they committed a league-high 136 errors) and weren't patient at the plate (they drew the second-fewest walks in the league). On the plus side, Chicago got a breakout year from right fielder Magglio Ordonez (.301, 30 HRs, 117 RBI) and surprising contributions from catcher Brook For-dyce and rookie outfielders Chris Singleton and Carlos Lee. First baseman Paul Konerko (.294, 24 HRs) and second sacker Ray Durham fill out a decent lineup that needs help on the left side of the infield and a boost from the Slugger Formerly Known as the Big Hurt, Frank Thomas (who hasn't dished out much pain the past two seasons). Mike Sirotka and Jim Parque head a rotation that could soon be among the AL's best. Young hurler Kip Wells looks like a future ace, and talented prospects Aaron Myette and Jon Garland aren't far behind. The bullpen is sturdy with Keith Foulke (who allowed 72 hits in 105 1/4 innings), Bill Simas, Sean Lowe and Bobby Howry. With an impressive young nucleus and a deep farm system, the Sox may soon get the Indians' attention.

Despite losing their top two hitters (Dean Palmer and Jose Offerman) to free agency, the Royals were one of the AL's better-hitting teams in 1999. Kansas City's .282 team batting average, which matched that of the Yankees, was third best in the league, and the club set a franchise record for runs scored. But offensive prowess wasn't enough to save the Royals from their worst record in team history. KC was done in by a thin rotation and a bullpen that tallied more blown saves (30) than saves (29). (The Royals lost 25 games in which they had a lead or were tied in the seventh inning.) Off-season additions Jerry Spradlin and Ricky Bottalico will be counted on to prevent another meltdown in the pen, and the Royals will look to Blake Stein and Jay Witasick to strengthen a rotation that is good at the top with Jose Rosado and Jeff Suppan. KC boasts a deep and talented outfield that features Rookie of the Year Carlos Beltran (.293, 22 HRs, 108 RBI), Jermaine Dye (.294, 27 HRs, 119 RBI) and Johnny Damon (.307, 36 SBs). There's talent in the infield as well, with future star Carlos Febles and over-achievers Mike Sweeney, Rey Sanchez and Joe Randa. If the pitching staff comes together, the Royals could manage a 20-game improvement this season.

Tigers general manager Randy Smith rolled the dice when he sent six players to the Rangers for two-time MVP Juan Gonzalez. Smith wanted a marquee man to draw fans to Comerica Park, and Gonzalez fit the bill. But the price was steep--among the six dealt were former 15-game-winner Justin Thompson, promising outfielder Gabe Kapler and talented reliever Francisco Cordero. The gamble won't pay off unless Smith persuades Juan Gone to stay put and sign a long-term deal. And even if Gonzalez turns in another MVP season, the Tigers won't make big strides without better years from outfielders Juan Encarnacion and Bobby Higginson and infielders Tony Clark and Damion Easley. Detroit, which drew the fewest walks in the league last year, will also have to improve on a dismal .243 average with runners in scoring position and a woeful .326 on-base average. The rotation, which had a league-high 5.57 ERA in 1999, will fare slightly better in a more spacious park and should get a lift from Hideo Nomo, who went 12--8 with the Brewers in 1999. A lot rides on former number one picks Jeff Weaver and Matt Anderson, who both struggled after showing early promise. If Weaver emerges as an ace and Anderson develops into a dominant closer, the Tigers will have something to build on.

Youth was served in Minnesota last season, as the Twins played 17 rookies. Most of them belonged in the minors, but owner Carl Pohlad's main concern is keeping the payroll down--and that means play the rookies. While several of the greenhorns showed promise--particularly outfielders Jacque Jones, Chad Allen and Torii Hunter, shortstop Cristian Guzman and third baseman Corey Koskie--there isn't much cause for excitement in the Twin Cities. The starting rotation, led by Brad Radke and future all-star Eric Milton, is pretty good and the pen is serviceable. But the mound corps isn't strong enough to offset an anemic offense that scored the fewest runs in the league last year (even though it plays 81 games in the Baggiedome). And unless Todd Walker and Matt Lawton regain their strokes, the team doesn't figure to be much improved this year.

American League West

After winning three division titles in four years and coming up empty in the postseason, the Rangers have taken a new tack. With Juan Gonzalez' big bat now in Detroit and Todd Zeile holding down first for the Mets, the Rangers will make do with a smaller offensive arsenal. Second-year right fielder Gabe Kapler, who came over from the Tigers in the Gonzalez deal, and highly touted center fielder Ruben Mateo will be counted on to pick up some of the slack, as will rookie third baseman Mike Lamb. Rusty Greer (.300, 101 RBI), Rafael Palmeiro (.324, 47 HRs, 148 RBI) and MVP catcher Pudge Rodriguez (.332, 35 HRs, 113 RBI) will anchor a lineup that won't have as much pop as last year's. But the Rangers are banking on an improved rotation, which will feature three new lefties (Kenny Rogers, Darren Oliver and either Justin Thompson or rookie Matt Perisho) and holdovers Rick Helling and Esteban Loaiza, to offset any scoring drop-off. Closer John Wetteland and set-up men Jeff Zimmerman, Tim Crabtree and Francisco Cordero give Texas one of the junior circuit's best pens (if it's not overworked again). If the Rangers can hold off the Athletics and the Mariners, they'll likely run into the Yanks, who have trounced them nine straight times in the postseason. Texas may break the three-and-out habit, but we don't see them advancing to the ALCS.

The Athletics had the fifth-best record in the American League last year and were second in the majors in home runs. Jason Giambi had a .315 batting average, Matt Stairs hit 38 homers and John Jaha drove in 111 runs. Randy Velarde even managed to get 200 hits. Yet Oakland isn't mentioned among the elite teams. Maybe that will change. The A's have terrific young players in outfielder Ben Grieve, shortstop Miguel Tejada and third baseman Eric Chavez. They also have a solid rotation with Kevin Appier, future ace Tim Hudson, Gil Heredia (who has the best control in the AL) and Omar Olivares. And they're loaded with strong arms. Three young pitchers--Mark Mulder, Barry Zito and former outfielder Ron Mahay--will vie for the fifth spot. General manager Billy Beane decided to go with a platoon in center that will include phenom Terrence Long, who came over from the Mets in the Kenny Rogers deal. In order to shore up the bullpen, Beane got Jason Isringhausen, who converted all eight of his save opportunities with Oakland last year. Watch for the As to use third baseman Adam Piatt, who tore up the Texas League last season, as trade bait. If it can handle left-handed pitching, Oakland will make people take notice this year.

The Mariners finally succeeded in obtaining what Ken Griffey Jr. has been calling for--a frontline pitching staff. One problem: After 11 seasons in Seattle, Junior will be watching from Cincinnati. It was a tumultuous off-season, in which Griffey was rumored a hundred times to be traded before he was finally packed off to Ohio for starting pitcher Brett Tomko, center fielder Mike Cameron, infielder Antonio Perez and reliever Jake Meyer. That's not much for a franchise player. But Pat Gillick, who replaced much-maligned Woody Woodward as GM last fall, did sign six free agents for $61 million. The Mariners now have the pitching, with young stars John Halama, 22-year-old Freddy Garcia (who had a 2.97 ERA in the second half), Tomko and 21-year-old Gil Meche (8--4 in 15 starts) filling out a rotation anchored by Jamie Moyer and Aaron Sele. And that's not even counting 6'10" phenom Ryan Anderson, who's a year or so away. It's hard to overestimate the importance of Seatde's improved pitching. Despite moving into a pitcher's park last July (the team ERA dropped from 6.67 in the Kingdome to 4.01 in Safeco), the Mariners set team records for ERA, walks, hits and runs allowed. The M's still look peckish at the plate, even with the addition of John Olerud. Edgar Martinez led the American League with a .447 on-base percentage, but David Bell, Mark McLemore, Dan Wilson and Brian Hunter won't strike fear into pitchers' hearts. The M's are also an old team. Gillick may move a pitcher or two to get an outfielder. The pen, long a sore spot in the Pacific Northwest, is a lot stronger with the addition of Arthur Rhodes and 31-year-old Kazuhiro Sasaki, Japan's all-time saves leader (who comes off elbow surgery). That means Lou Piniella won't have to rely on the incendiary Jose Mesa, who somehow notched 33 saves last year despite allowing 124 base runners in 68 2/3 innings. Even with Griffey gone, the Mariners can contend in die AL West.

All signs pointed to a big housecleaning in Anaheim after last year's dreadful last-place debacle. But the shakeout never came, and it looks like Disney has pulled the plug on the Angels. The official line, offered by GM Bill Stoneman, is that the Halos will contend this season. That's hard to believe. Sure, the Angels' offense should get a boost with Mo Vaughn and Tim Salmon healthy again, and more can be expected from Troy Glaus and Darin Erstad. But there are giant holes in the lineup and the rotation looks dicey. Starter Omar Olivares was dealt to Oakland last season and 14-year mainstay Chuck Finley signed width Cleveland. That leaves 34-year-old Ken Hill (4--11, 4.77), who's three pitches away from the DL, and 38-year-old gopherballer Tim Belcher (6--8, 6.73), who's coming off arm surgery and will miss the start of die season. Other possible starters include lackluster signee Kent Mercker, Jason Dickson (who missed all of last season with shoulder trouble) and unproven youngsters Jarrod Washburn, Ramon Ortiz and Brian Cooper--all of whom could be good in time but are sure to take their lumps this year. It's going to be a long summer for new coach Mike Scioscia. A year after being picked by many (including Playboy) to take the West, the Angels look like the weak link in an otherwise strong division.

National League East

How can a team win eight straight division titles and look so lousy in the postseason? The Braves hit .223 in the NLCS; in the World Series they batted .200. Atlanta hit .266 during the season and was only seventh in the league in runs scored. Greg Maddux gave up the most hits of his career and had his first plus-3.00-ERA season since 1991. Tom Glavine led the NL in hits allowed. Yet die Braves still won 103 games last year. The Braves' pitching staff remains the envy of the bigs. Kevin Millwood, who was 6--0 with a 1.29 ERA in his last ten starts, held opposing hitters to the lowest batting average in the majors (.202). Bruce Chen will improve on his 5.47 ERA. And there are plenty more arms in the minors: Jason Marquis, Luis Rivera and Jung Bong may be in Atlanta soon. The Braves improved offensively during the winter. Quilvio Veras (.368 on-base percentage in 1999) gives the team a legitimate leadoff hitter. And Reggie Sanders brings a lot more speed to the lineup. Chipper Jones comes off an MVP season. Andruw Jones, 23, is due for a breakout year. Atlanta's best offensive prospect, George Lombard, was MVP of the Arizona Fall League. The shortstop job may even go to 19-year-old Rafael Furcal. The big issue for Atlanta again will be health: How much will 38-year-old Andres Galarraga contribute after a year away with cancer? How will Javy Lopez rebound from knee surgery? Will Brian Jordan play 153 games again? Will Veras and Sanders be healthy? The Braves' pen, which was the second-best in the league last season, has problems, too. Can John Rocker be effective, especially on the road? How will his act play out in the locker room? Will Kerry Ligtenberg return to his 1998 form? Will Kevin McGlinchey or John Smoltz become the closer? But don't get the wrong impression. This is a superb team. Even with the uncertainties, the Braves have enough talent to win it all.

Whither the Mets? Last year they won 97 games and ended their Atlanta jinx. (The fifth and sixth games of the NLCS were hands-down the best of the postseason.) Thanks to 41-year-old Rickey Henderson, the Mets were second in the league in walks, first in on-base percentage and fifth in runs scored. Second baseman Edgardo Alfonzo and third sacker Robin Ventura anchored baseball's best defensive infield. So why does something smell fishy in Flushing? One factor is age. Henderson, Ventura and Todd Zeile (John Olerud's replacement at first) aren't young. The outfield also seems weak. Mets GM Steve Phillips was impressed enough with the play of 28-year-old Melvin Mora that he traded rising star Roger Cedeno. Darryl Hamilton won't hit .339 for the Mets again this season, and Derek Bell looked terrible for Houston in 1999. Mike Hampton--also acquired from the Astros in the Cedeno trade--will be a big plus. But the rotation is still thin and fragile. New York has a good pen, though there are concerns about Armando Benitez. The Mets over-achieved in 1999. Unless they add a couple of impact players, they won't repeat last season's success.

The Phillies ended 1999 as they did most of the Nineties--on the wrong side of .500. Sound familiar? The overachieving Phils were actually in the wild-card chase until a 10--34 streak in August and September dumped them back on common ground. The team had a 4.92 ERA and only 32 saves, so it isn't hard to figure out where the problem was. GM Ed Wade pulled off a great trade over the winter, getting Andy Ashby from the Padres. But the trade was partly negated by Curt Schilling's shoulder surgery. He'll be out until mid-May. Schilling threw 523 innings in 1997 and 1998, so his sore shoulder is no surprise. After Jeff Brantley went down with his bum shoulder in April, the Phillies' bullpen was a mess. This year Mike Jackson comes to the rescue, but after appearing in more games (644) than any other pitcher in the decade, he may not have much left. With the exception of its disappointing middle infield, the Phillies' offense looks sharp. In Scott Rolen, Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell, Philadelphia has some of the game's best young talent. Rolen missed a third of the season after he hurt his back sliding in Milwaukee in July. Abreu (.335, 183 bits) had the highest Phillies batting average since 1967. Burrell (.333, 28 HRs in Double A) will challenge Ron Gant in left. Mike Lieberthal and Doug Glanville (204 hits, 101 runs) round out the offense. Unfortunately, the Phils have a tough early schedule. And they're asking a lot from pitchers Paul Byrd (5.61 ERA after the All-Star break), promising Randy Wolf, Robert Person and Chris Brock. It looks like Ed Wade missed his chance to trade Schilling for young pitching. Philadelphia fans might be wondering if the Aughts will look like the Nineties.

Now that former Expos president Claude Brochu has gone off to count his ducats, there's hope again in Montreal. In two days in December, new owner Jeffrey Loria increased his team's payroll nearly 33 percent by signing two former Yankee pitchers. Unfortunately, Montreal signed Graeme Lloyd and Hideki Irabu, hardly Goose Gossage and Catfish Hunter. But Loria may be the start of something good. In Vladimir Guerrero (.316, 42 HRs, 131 RBI), Jose Vidro (.304) and Michael Barrett (.293), the franchise has tremendous young talent. And with solid outfield prospects Peter Bergeron and Milton Bradley, GM Jim Beattie can unload center fielder Rondell White. Closer extraordinaire Ugueth Urbina (who led the NL in saves last season) may also end up elsewhere (Atlanta, anyone?). If manager Felipe Alou improves his defense and gets more speed at the top of his lineup, the Expos will make life miserable for some teams this summer.

The Marlins appropriately ended their 1999 season with an 18--0 loss to Atlanta. Even though the Fish started the season 6--22, their 64--98 record represented a ten-game improvement over 1998. But they remain the worst team in the NL. Florida was last in the league in homers and runs scored, despite signs of an offensive revival. Second baseman Luis Castillo hit .302 and stole 50 bases. Rookie center fielder Preston Wilson, 25, hit 26 homers but struck out 156 times (second-most in the league). Third baseman Mike Lowell had a strong second half. But the hitting still has a long way to go. Oft-injured Cliff Floyd--in seven seasons he has only once had as many as 400 plate appearances--played in just 69 games last year, and Mark Kotsay and Derrek Lee haven't approached their potential at the plate. Florida has a raft of talented pitching prospects in Brad Penny, A.J. Burnett (3.48 ERA in 41 innings), Jason Grilli and Vladimir Nunez (who came from Arizona with Penny and of phenom Abraham Nunez in the Matt Mantei trade). The bullpen has potential, too, with Braden Looper, Armando Almanza and closer Antonio "Pulpo" Alfonseca (21 saves and a 3.24 ERA), who looked great in the Dominican Winter League. Hang tough, John Henry, the Marlins are on the way up.

National league central

If Walt Weiss hadn't speared Tony Eusebio's bases-loaded drive in the tenth inning of game three of the NL division series, Houston would be heading in another direction. Weiss' play kept the Astros from taking a commanding lead over Atlanta. Rather than moving into a new stadium with a tightened belt, the Astros would be flying a National League pennant or World Series banner. Coming off the franchise's second-best mark, owner Drayton McLane--who says he has lost $120 million since he bought the team in 1992--looked to unload salaries in 2000. Arbitration-eligible Carl Everett went to Boston for shortstop prospect Adam Everett. Rather than risk losing Mike Hampton to free agency, GM Gerry Hunsicker packed him to the Mets for Roger Cedeno and Octavio Dotel. The team may look to unload Moises Alou, but he has a no-trade clause that limits him to just a few teams. Even without Alou, the Astros have an impressive outfield with Cedeno, Daryle Ward, Lance Berkman and Richard Hidalgo. The infield, with Tim Bogar and Ken Caminiti on the left side, isn't as strong. Jose Lima and Shane Reynolds are solid at die top of die rotation. And Dotel and Scott Elarton--who comes off rotator cuff surgery and will miss the start of die season--give Houston two of the best young arms in the game. Venezuelan prospect Wilfredo Rodriguez will help, but probably not this season. Billy Wagner may be the best closer in the NL. The Astros will definitely miss Hampton, but there's still enough here to get them to the playoffs again. Maybe Houston can be more than a two-man offense this time. And maybe Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell (who've gone a combined 10-for-81 in the postseason) will hit this October.

Cincinnati general manager Jim Bowden had an advantage with the Ken Griffey trade--Junior insisted he could be sent only to the Reds--but he still pulled off a sweet deal. Without giving up a frontline starter or a top prospect, Bowden landed an all-century player who instantly makes his team a contender in a tough division. Owner Carl Lindner shelled out a bargain $116.5 million to keep Griffey in the Queen City through 2009. With a lineup that boasts Barry Larkin, Sean Casey and Dante Bichette, the Redlegs will be in the hunt again this year. Small-market teams aren't supposed to be able to compete or sign marquee players. Last year, Cincinnati's youth squad--with an efficient $38 million payroll--managed 96 victories. That turned out to be one win short when the Reds lost their 163rd game 5--0 to the Mets. Led by a great bullpen--with a 3.36 ERA and a major-league-leading 55 saves--the Reds' pitching staff allowed the fewest hits in the majors (they gave up nearly 400 fewer than the Rockies). But manager Jack McKeon will pay this season for a few Faustian bargains he copped last year. Scott Sullivan, Danny Graves (the best pitcher in the majors with runners in scoring position) and NL Rookie of the Year Scott Williamson all carried heavy loads in 1999 and may not throw as well this season. The Reds will need plenty of innings from Denny Neagle and Pete Harnisch. Thanks to Griffey's hometown loyalty, things look sweet in Cincy.

Three straight disappointing seasons for the Cards have taken a bit of the shine off manager Tony La Russa's genius tag. But La Russa hasn't had a full deck to work with. Injuries to Alan Benes, Matt Morris and Donovan Osborne left a gaping hole in the rotation, and the Cards haven't had a consistent closer since Dennis Eckersley retired. The pitching corps looks more reliable this year with the arrival of veteran workhorses Pat Hentgen, Darryl Kile and Andy Benes and closer Dave Veres. The Redbirds will count on their new starters to eat up innings (15 wins apiece would be nice, too) and take the load off a bullpen that made a league-high 454 appearances last season. Kent Botten-field (18--7, 3.97) and young lefty Rick Ankiel (Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year) fill out what should be a stout starting five. The only change in the lineup is at the top of the order, where ex-Brewer second baseman Fernando Vina will step in. The infield is set with Big Mac (who surprised us with last year's encore season) and budding star Fernando Tatis (34 HRs, 107 RBI) at the corners and Edgar Renteria at short. The Cards need a comeback year from catcher Eli Marrero and a lot more production from the outfield trio of Ray Lankford, J.D. Drew and Eric Davis, who combined for only 132 RBI last year. Better fundamentals and fewer Ks (St. Louis led the major leagues in whiffs) would help as well. The Cards will be more than a one-man show this season, and if things come together they could be playing ball in October.

The injury bug bit hard in Pittsburgh last year. All-Star catcher Jason Kendall mangled his right ankle and missed half the season, and 20 other Pirates spent time on the DL. Still, the Bucs managed a small-market respectable 78--83 record, largely on the strength of a good starting rotation. Former minor-league free agent Todd Ritchie, who became the Pirates' first 15-game winner since Doug Drabek in 1992, teams with Jason Schmidt, Kris Benson and Francisco Cordova to form a solid front four. The lineup is uneven, but there's a fair amount of talent with Kendall, outfielder Brian Giles (39 HRs, 115 RBI) and infielders Kevin Young (41 doubles, 106 RBI) and Warren Morris. Promising prospects Aramis Ramirez and Chad Hermansen could emerge this year and boost the offense. (Al Martin's trade to the Padres opens an outfield slot for Hermansen.) If the Pirates can find a closer and shore up a leaky defense--that's not asking much, is it?--they have an outside shot at contending for the wild card.

The Cubs looked in good shape two months into last season. On June 9 they were nine games above .500 and a game out of first place. But just as Sammy Sosa got his homer act on track, the Cubs went off the rails, losing an incredible 72 of their last 107 games and finishing 30 games out of first. The Cubs' 67--95 record was their worst since 1980. Chicago won't slide any further this season, but don't look for much. The pitching staff, which had the league's second-worst ERA (5.27) in 1999, will get a lift from the eventual return of 1998 Rookie of the Year Kerry Wood. But he can't be expected to carry a big workload after coming off reconstructive elbow surgery. Ex-Dodger Ismael Valdes will help, though he could struggle at Wrigley (his career ERA at Chavez Ravine is 2.50, compared with 4.34 on the road). Without good years from Jon Lieber and Kevin Tapani, the rotation will wobble--and it won't get help from a combustible pen. The Cubs will go with five new starters in their everyday lineup, but the only significant upgrade is at second base, where speedy Eric Young takes over for Mickey Morandini. Phenom Corey Patterson could arrive as early as midseason and take over in center. Even with Sosa's big bat, the Cubs don't have much hitting. A lot of things need to fell in place for new skipper Don Baylor to lead the Cubs to anything more than a break-even season.

The Brewers looked so awful by the end of last season it was easy to forget their record was 47--47 on July 23. Talk about frustrating: Milwaukee had the worst home record in the NL and led the majors in players left on base. Injuries hurt, but the team was done in by its starting pitching. Eight guys started 12 or more games, and only three pitchers threw more than 93 innings. It's been seven years since a Milwaukee pitcher won 15 games. Manager Davey Lopes will have his hands full this year. New general manager Dean Taylor loaded up on bargain-basement pitching in the off-season, but it's likely that new pitchers Jamey (Wright), Jimmy (Haynes) and Jaime (Navarro) will give everybody in Milwaukee nightmares this summer. Offensively the team hasn't done enough to make up for the loss of Jeff Cirillo and Dave Nilsson. That leaves Geoff Jenkins (.313) and Jeromy Burnitz (33 HRs and 103 RBI)--and pray for rain. The trade of infielders Jose Valentin and Fernando Vina opens regular spots for underrated Mark Loretta and promising Ron Belliard (.295, 135 hits). There's pitching (Nick Neugebauer, Ben Sheets) on the way, too. Miller Field won't be ready for the 2000 season, but neither will the Brewers.

National League West

The Diamondbacks pulled off the greatest single-season turnaround in the 20th century and won the West in only their second year. A lot of things came together for Arizona. They got career years from Jay Bell (38 HRs, 112 RBI) and Luis Gonzalez (.336, 111 RBI) and near-career years from Matt Williams and Steve Finley. Cy Young winner Randy Johnson led the league with a 2.48 ERA and 364 Ks--the fourth-highest total in baseball history--and midseason acquisition Matt Mantei filled a big hole in the closer spot, connecting on 22 of 25 save opportunities. The D-backs won't equal last year's 100-win season, because a number of their vets aren't going to match last year's output. There are questions: Will Tony Womack play well back at short? Will Travis Lee handle the outfield? Is Erubiel Durazo the real thing at first? If the rotation holds together (number three starter Todd Stottlemyre's bum shoulder is a concern), the Snakes have a good chance to repeat in the West.

Even though the Giants lost Barry Bonds for ten weeks last season, they were third in the NL in runs scored. For the first half of the season they were the league's third-best team. Then their lack of pitching caught up with them. Workhorse Russ Ortiz had 18 wins but led the NL in walks allowed. (Between them, Ortiz and Shawn Estes gave up half as many walks as the entire Astros' staff.) Both Kirk Rueter and Mark Gardner were disappointing. Closer Robb Nen had a poor year and underwent elbow surgery last October (he looks iffy for the start of this season). In their first season in Pacific Bell Park, the Giants' fortunes will again ride on their arms. Joe Nathan, the team's top pitching prospect, didn't show much in 14 starts last year. Another good pitching prospect, Kurt Ainsworth, is probably a year away. Outfielder Calvin Murray was MVP of the Pacific Coast League, but at 28 his major league career may have passed him by. The team also has to stay free of injury--especially Jeff Kent. The Giants weren't active during the off-season. Unless Dusty Baker can pull another rabbit out of the hat, there won't be enough hurling to get the Giants to the postseason.

Dodgers general manager Kevin Malone liked his chances going into last season. The self-proclaimed "new sheriff in town" had the Dodgers penciled in for the World Series. Of course, that scheduling trifle known as die regular season screwed up Malone's plans. The Dodgers were an $80 million disaster from the get-go. They finished third in their division and ended with their first losing season since 1992. They won't be the laughingstock of the league this year, if only because Malone has turned in his badge. And they could be in the hunt in the West if their starting rotation comes around behind Kevin Brown. With Ismael Valdes off to Wrigley Field, the Dodgers need a good year from rookie Eric Gagne. Darren Dreifort (13--13, 4.79), Chan Ho Park (13--11, 5.23) and the mysterious Carlos Perez (2--10, 7.43) must also return to past form. The Dodgers are weak up the middle but they improved their offense with the acquisition of $84 million man Shawn Green (.309, 42 HRs and 123 RBI with Toronto). Green brings a gold glove and left-handed balance to a lineup dominated by righties. If Arizona falters, there's enough talent here to make a run in the NL West. Then again, there was enough talent in Los Angeles last year.

Dan O'Dowd, Colorado's new general manager, has given the Rockies a complete makeover. He unloaded sluggers Vinny Castilla and Dante Bichette, added 18 new players to the 40-man roster and overhauled the pitching staff. O'Dowd's computer-driven master plan emphasizes speed and defense, and less reliance on the long ball. This may not be a winning formula for a team that plays half of its games in Denver, where die average score last year was 8--7, but it's worth a try. The Blake Street Bomber routine never played well on the road and hasn't even worked out at home recently, where the Rox played .500 ball the past two seasons. The key additions to the lineup are speedy outfielders Tom Goodwin and Jeffrey Hammonds and underrated third baseman Jeff Cirillo, who will bat cleanup between Larry Walker (.379, 37 HRs, 115 RBI) and Todd Helton (.320, 35 HRs, 113 RBI). Pedro Astacio (who had a mile-high-good 17 wins last season) and former Devil Ray Rolando Arrojo are assured of spots at the top of the rotation. Scott Karl, Jose Jimenez, Manny Aybar, Brian Bohanon and Masato Yoshii will compete for the remaining three spots. There's more quantity than quality here, but this year's staff can't be worse than last year's, which had a majors-high 6.01 ERA, set a league record for walks issued and allowed the most runs in the NL since the 1930 Phils. O'Dowd may be onto something in Denver, but his big experiment will take more than a year to pan out.

Pity the Padres. The second-highest-paid player on their team is Randall Kirk Myers, who'll make $6.25 million this season. San Diego claimed the 37-year-old lefty off waivers in 1998 to keep the Braves from signing him. Now he's just an albatross. The Padres scored the second-fewest runs in the NL last season, and had the worst road team in the big leagues (28--53). In an era of inflated offense, the Pads scored three or fewer runs in 74 games. Prospects George Arias and Ruben Rivera were busts (Rivera had 23 homers but hit .195). There's not much in the minors (but keep an eye on rookies Sean Burroughs and Mike Darr). San Diego's off-season trades haven't seemed fair--especially Quilvio Veras, Reggie Sanders and Wally Joyner for Bret Boone and Ryan Klesko. Carlton Loewer, who came over in the Andy Ashby deal, fell out of a tree in the off-season and broke his leg. The Padres claim they've lost $75 million over the past five seasons and expect to drop another $10 million this year. GM Kevin Towers doesn't figure to get into the playoffs this year. Maybe next year, or the year after that. Anybody interested in Randy Myers?

Playboy's Pichs

American League

East Central West

Yankees Indians Rangers

Red Sox White Sox Athletics

Blue Jays Royals Mariners

Orioles Tigers Angles

Devil Rays Twins

National League

East Central West

Braves Astors Diamondbacks

Mets Reds Giants

Philies Cardinals Dodgers

Expos Pirates Rockies

Marlins Cubs Padres

Brewers

Al wild Card: Athletics

Al champs: Yankees

NL Wild Card: Reds

NL Champs: Braves

World Champas: Braves

A Dugout Chat With Dusty Baker

You may get an argument if you claim Dusty Baker is the best manager in the majors, but virtually everyone will agree that he's baseball's best motivator. His San Francisco Giants had the lowest payroll in the NL West last year, yet finished second. In his seven years with the Giants, Baker has twice been named manager of the year. He is best known for his late-season comebacks and unflappable determination. In his final contract year, Baker will attract plenty of interest if the Giants don't lock him up first.

Q: What fundamental skills are most lacking in the big leagues today?

A: I'd say throwing and running.

Q: At what point in a season do you realize you're managing a team that can contend? How long does it take you to assess your team?

A: One time through the league, where you can compare your team with all the other teams and see what your strengths and weaknesses are versus another team's strengths and weaknesses.

Q: Have you ever guessed wrong about your team's prospects? Were you ever in spring training and thought your team would go nowhere and it ended up being a good team?

A: Yeah, there have been times when I was wrong. But spring training is a little too early to assess the team unless you basically have the same one you had the year before.

Q: What's your least favorite park to visit as a manager?

A: Probably Colorado. It's hard to manage there. You don't know when to take your pitcher our, you don't know when to concede the game and save your bullpen for tomorrow. No lead is safe. It's a different game.

Q: Some teams consistently have fewer injuries than others, year in an year out. Is that just dumb luck?

A: Some of it's luck and some of it's research. If you get a guy who's been prone to injury over the past five years, his chances of getting injured again are high. Training and fitness help. Over the past three of four years, the Giants have been in the top three, I think, in the least number of injuries of people on the disabled list. The only problem is, the injuries we've had have been to key people. You lose Barry Bonds or Jeff Kent or Ellis Burks for a couple of months, it hurts. But we've been very fortunate with our pitchers not getting injured or having bad arms. A lot of it is fitness, a lot of it is nutrition and a lot of it's year-round training. When you're a midrange-budget team you have to be in better shape than other teams, because you can't afford to lose guys. You can't afford to go out and replace them.

Q: Who's the best young outfielder in the National League?

A: Either Andruw Jones or Vladimir Guerrero.

Q: And what about the best young pitcher?

A: Probably the kid from Atlanta, Kevin Millwood.

Q: If you could change one baseball rule, what would it be?

A: The knockdown rule. I would like both pitchers to get a shot. Stop fighting and charging the mound and let them fight like hockey players. Then you'll see who really wants to fight and who's afraid of getting embarrassed or who wants to be stopped.

La Republica del Beisbol

Last season more than one in five big leaguers were born outside the U.S. That's twice the ratio of a decade ago. Sixty-six players came from the Dominican Republic--a nation with a population the size of New Jersey's--where baseball was introduced by Cuban planters in the 19th century. If baseball is the great American pastime, it's a religion in the D.R. And gone, apparently, are the days of the scatter-armed Dominican shortstop or the flaky Dominican reliever. Here's a lineup of current Dominican all-stars that could give the Yanks or Braves a run for their money:

C Tony Eusebio

1B Jose Offerman

2B Carlos Febles

3B Fernando Tatis

SS Neifi Perez

LF Manny Ramirez

CF Vladimir Guerrero

RF Sammy Sosa

SP: Pedro Martinez, Jose Lima, Pedro Astacio, Bartolo Colon, Octavio Dotel

RP: Armando Benitez, Antonio Alfonseca, Jesus Sanchez, Odalis Perez

Batting Rround

Angels leadoff hitter Orlando Palmeiro was ejected on August 4 by umpire Tim Tschida when he dropped his bat at the plate after striking out in the first inning. But Palmeiro wasn't showing up the ump. The Angels were hoping to break out of a slump by using the same bat--in this case Jim Edmonds' black bat--and Palmeiro was just leaving the bat for number two hitter Gary DiSarcina. Once the plan was explained to Tschida, Palmeiro was reinstated. The bat trick? Four of the next eight Angels got hits. Anaheim won 4-3.

Bronx Cheer

During game four of the World Series, Braves right fielder Brian Jordan handed right-field umpire Steve Rippley a pager that had been thrown onto the field at Yankee Stadium. The ump put it in his pocket. "About an inning or two later, I feel this vibration," Rippley said. "I pulled out the pager and there was a message. It said: 'Umpires suck. You're all blind.'"

Night School

Twins manager Tom Kelly is known for his patience. But after rookie Torii Hunter missed a hit-and-run sign in the ninth inning of a game at Kansas City, Kelly held a postgame lesson on the field, at 12:08 a.m. The Royals' grounds crew attended to other parts of the field while Kelly had Hunter look toward third-base coach Ron Gardenhire. "We still miss signs," said Kelly, "and it's August 8."