National League East

1. Atlanta Braves

2002 in Review: 101--59, first place. Bobby Cox's choke artists posted the best record in the NL, cruised to their 11th straight division title and then imploded like an old Vegas hotel against the Giants.

Pivotal Player: After spending two years pitching batting practice at Coors Field, lefty Mike Hampton returns to a pitcher's park and, Atlanta hopes, his 22-win form of 1999.

X Factor: Don't tell Jane Fonda, but the Braves really do miss Ted Turner. With the AOL bean counters holding the purse strings, the Bravos are suddenly counting their pennies.

Outlook: Atlanta's vaunted starting rotation is in flux after losing starters Tom Glavine and Kevin Millwood for budgetary reasons, while newcomers Hampton, Russ Ortiz and Paul Byrd will test pitching coach Leo Mazzone's magic touch. The outfield might be the best in baseball.

Endgame: The Braves win the division (again) and lose in the first round of the playoffs (again).

2. New York Mets

2002 in Review: 75-86, fifth. Suffice it to say that a spot in the cellar wasn't what owner Fred Wilpon was expecting from his $100 million payroll, and much-hated manager Bobby Valentine paid the price.

Pivotal Player: Newly acquired lefty Tom Glavine is Cooperstown bound, but the Mets hope his second-half record (7--7, 3.93 ERA) is a blip.

X Factor: When things go sour in the nation's media capital, everyone knows about it. The Mets get more bad ink than any other team.

Outlook: Succeeding the hyperactive Valentine, former Oakland skipper Art Howe will chill out this team like a crate of Zoloft. His not-so-tough love should help sulky All-Stars Roberto Alomar and Mo Vaughn find themselves. In the addition-by-subtraction department, shorstop Rey Ordonez--who could hardly hit his IQ--is history, with superprospect Jose Reyes in the wings.

Endgame: The Mets fall just short in their worst-to-first bid, but sang the NL wild card.

3. Florida Marlins

2002 Record: 79--83, fourth. A lackluster performance helped cement their reputation as the most conspicuous underachiever in the NL East.

Pivotal Player: Former MVP catcher Pudge Rodriguez has a great bat and a better glove, but Texas hurlers griped about his pitch calling.

X Factor: The Fish have had only one winning season in franchise history--their World Series run of 1997.

Outlook: These guys have more quality arms than Donald Rumsfeld. With some seasoning, 22-year-old Josh Beckett and 26-year-old A.J. Burnett could be Cy Young contenders, and Florida could be the NL's answer to the Oakland A's.

Endgame: The Marlins are this division's team of the future. But the future isn't now.

4. Montreal Expos

2002 in Review: 83--79, second. The Expos shook off Bud Selig's would-be Kevorkian act and dogged the Braves through the All-Star break. Too bad total attendance of 812,045 was the worst in the majors.

Pivotal Player: Outfielder Vladimir Guerrero is Roberto Clemente with power, but will the Expos be forced to dump his salary?

X Factor: Until a new owner can be found, the Expos will be operated by the league, which probably doesn't want a homeless team in postseason.

Outlook: By playing "home" games in Puerto Rico, the Expos will make history, rack up plenty of frequentflier miles and lose big.

Endgame: A distant fourth-place finish, and a new home in the U.S.

5. Philadelphia Phillies

2002 in Review: 80--81, third. After a surprise pennant push in 2001, Larry Bowa's Phillies slid back to the pack like a cheese steak off a Teflon spatula, finishing 21 1/2 games behind Atlanta.

Pivotal Player: Jim Thome gets less respect than Carrot Top, but his combination of Goliathlike power (52 homers) and Joblike patiencs (122 walks) make him an elite hitter.

X Factor: If the Phils start slow, the ownership may delay the team's pennant push to coincide with the opening of Phillies Ballpark in 2004.

Outlook: GM Ed Wade does a nice job of bolstering the core of youngsters like Pat Burrell and Jimmy Rollins with vets like Thome and third baseman David Bell. Outfielder Bobby Abreu, who has a .409 career on-base percentage, could be a better leadoff (continued on page 154)National League(continued from page 92) man than shortstop Jimmy Rollins, who notched a tepid 306 OBP in 2002.

Endgame: The Phillies are the boom-or-bust team in baseball's most wide-open division. We say bust.

National league central

1. Houston Astros

2002 in Review: 84-78, second place. The Stros, no doubt distracted by playing in the stadium formerly known as Enron Field, never made a serious run at the Cardinals.

Pivotal Player: Despite playing in hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park, Jeff Bagwell batted .288 and .291 over the last two seasons, which were his lowest averages since 1997.

X Factor: The Astros have never won a postseason series.

Outlook: Is this fantasy baseball? After signing free-agent second baseman Jeff Kent, the Astros will move 37-year-old incumbent Craig Biggio to center and Lance Berkman to left. Starters Roy Oswalt (19-9) and Wade Miller (15-4) are for real, but after that there's a steep drop-off in talent.

Endgame: Kent moves to third by May, and behind the division's best pitching, the Astros run away and hide.

2. Chicago Cubs

2002 in Review: 67-95, fifth. It was another perfect summer in Chicago: ivy-covered walls, day baseball, technicolor hot dogs . . . and a losing baseball team.

Pivotal Player: Mark Prior is the best pitching prospect the Cubs have had since Greg Maddux.

X Factor: The Tribune Co., which owns the Cubs, has always been more interested in money than in winning.

Outlook: Slugger Sammy Sosa is a stud, but the rest of new manager Dusty Baker's roster is packed with overpriced veterans and underachieving journeymen. The real Chicago hope is young pitching. Joining Prior are finally healthy fireballer Kerry Wood, 25, and his clone, 28-year-old Matt Clement.

Endgame: Baker leads this band of misfits to wild card contention, while Sammy makes an MVP run.

3. St. Louis Cardinals

2002 in Review: 97-65, first. In June, days after the passing of Cards broadcaster Jack Buck, pitching ace Darryl Kile was found dead. The Redbirds hung tough, won the NL Central and eliminated the defending champion D-backs before losing to the Giants in the NLCS

Pivotal Player: Returning from injuries and a Nuke LaLoosh-like bout of wildness, lefty superprospect Rick Ankiel could boost a depleted staff. Or give the mascot a concussion.

X Factor: The last team to have a key player die in midseason--the 1979 Yanks, who lost Thurman Munson--went on to win 103 games and the division the next year.

Outlook: The Cards will miss Kile in more ways than one: With the departure of Chuck Finley, 17-game winner Matt Morris is the team's only proven starter.

Endgame: The Cards start slow and even a midseason injection of pitching leaves them a distant third.

4. Cincinnati Reds

2002 in Review: 78-84, third. The Red machine exploded off the starting line, going 16-9 in April and spending 51 consecutive days in first place. But down the stretch they ran out of gas, finishing 19 games behind the Cards.

Pivotal Player: Ken Griffey Jr. has gone from legend to laughingstock--.264, 8 homers, 23 RBI in 2002--since returning to the site of Dad's glory days.

X Factor: Five of the seven NL teams to get new stadiums since 1995 have made the playoffs. Great American Ballpark opens this season.

Outlook: The Reds' youth movement continues: Shortstop Felipe Lopez will force legend Barry Larkin to the bench, and bopping outfielder Adam Dunn could be a postmillennial Mark McGwire.

Endgame: Bob Boone's Reds played over their heads in 2002. This year, they finish fourth.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates

2002 in Review: 72-89, fourth. Shiver me timbers, mateys--the Pirates set a club record with their tenth consecutive losing season.

Pivotal Player: With a .450 on-base percentage and a .622 slugging average, Brian Giles trailed only Barry Bonds in those crucial categories.

X Factor: In only the team's second year in PNC Park, Pittsburgh attendance dropped by more than 679,000, throwing a monkey wrench into owner Kevin McClatchy's rebuilding plan.

Outlook: They've created plenty of work for local moving companies in the offseason by dispatching journeymen like Darren Lewis and Francisco Cordova and acquiring journeymen like Brian Boehringer and Matt Stairs and signing has-beens like Reggie Saunders. But why? Endgame: The only thing that's separating the Pirates from last place is the Milwaukee Brewers.

6. Milwaukee Brewers

2002 in Review: 56-106, sixth. Does this smell like team spirit? All-Star shortstop Jose Hernandez sat out eight of the team's final 12 games in order to avoid breaking Bobby Bonds' single-season strikeout record.

Pivotal Player: 24-year-old Ben Sheets was 11-16 last year, but he has number-one-starter stuff.

X Factor: Commissioner Bud Selig does not own the team anymore--his daughter does.

Outlook: In a perfect world, the Brewers--who have so far managed to ring up 10 losing seasons in a row--would be contracted this season.

Endgame: Dead fucking last.

National League West

1. Arizona Diamondbacks

2002 in Review: 98-64, first place. Resplendent in purple and teal, the Diamondbacks won their third division title in the franchise's five-year history. But in the playoffs, Randy Johnson screwed the pooch and the Backs were broomed by the Cards.

Pivotal Player: Byung-Hyun Kim, who has become one of the game's top closers, may move to the starting rotation.

X Factor: Owner Jerry Colangelo mortgaged the Diamondbacks--literally--to finance its World Series run. Payback time is looming.

Outlook: The one-two punch of pitchers Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling is not only the best in baseball--it's arguably the best in the history of baseball. But Arizona's everyday lineup is aging and the rest of the pitchers can't break .500 with the highest-scoring team in the NL behind them.

Endgame: If the dynamic duo stays healthy, the Diamondbacks will threepeat in this division.

2. San Francisco Giants

2002 in Review: 95-66, second, NL wild card. A season that began with Jeff Kent breaking his wrist while (wink, wink) washing his truck and Kent and Barry Bonds slugging it out on national TV ended with the Giants holding a three-games-to-two lead in the World Series, a 5-0 lead in the seventh inning and then, well, you know the rest.

Pivotal Player: Infield import Edgardo Alfonzo is a solid hitter and a good glove man, and he carries the name Fonzie better than Henry Winkler.

X Factor: Manager Felipe Alou ended his run in Montreal with five consecutive losing seasons.

Outlook: Bonds won't miss the dearly departed Jeff Kent, but the rest of the offense will. A bigger loss is manager Dusty Baker, who could take the Wu-Tang Clan to the playoffs.

Endgame: Bonds will continue to assault the record books, but under Alou the Giants will slide to a not-close second place, short of the wild card.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers

2002 in Review: 92-70, third. LA flirted with the pennant race through the summer. On September 3, the Dodgers were 2 1/2 games ahead of the Giants in the wild card race, but they went 11-13 down the stretch to finish third for the fourth time in five years.

Pivotal Player: Outfielder Shawn Green has hit 91 homers and driven in 239 runs in the past two seasons.

X Factor: Rupert Murdoch is reportedly considering selling the Dodgers, which will likely affect his willingness to pump cash into a pennant race.

Outlook: The Dodgers have always gotten it done with great pitching, but the staff of Hideo Nomo and Odalis Perez won't make anyone forget Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale. Hundred Million Dollar Man Kevin Brown has been on the DL five times since the beginning of the 2001 season, but closer Eric Gagne is the real deal with a 1.97 ERA.

Endgame: Third place--where else?

4. San Diego Padres

2002 in Review: 66-96, fifth. Only four years removed from the World Series, the Padres slogged through another rebuilding year.

Pivotal Player: Closer Trevor Hoffman has notched at least 37 saves for seven years in a row, but shoulder surgery will keep him out until after the break. That, of course, prevents the Pads from using him as trade bait.

X Factor: Manager Bruce Bochy, who led San Diego to the 1998 World Series, might be the most underrated skipper in the majors.

Outlook: The Padres will have more success against PETA, which is kvetching about the team's stadium-naming deal with Petco, than against the rest of the NL. But the barely legal pitching tandem of Oliver Perez and Jake Peavy provide reasons for hope.

Endgame: Well, the weather is nice. Fourth place.

5. Colorado Rockies

2002 in Review: 73-89, fourth. Mountain air, baseballs in the humidor and another season of 12-10 games at the freakiest stadium in baseball, dude.

Pivotal Player: Slugger Todd Helton hit .378 at home, but only .280 elsewhere. That's why God made no-trade clauses.

X Factor: High-altitude Coors Field already has one of the most spacious outfields in the majors, so it's impractical to move the fences back to cut down on the long balls.

Outlook: Veteran pitchers hate Denver's high altitude, where curveballs don't curve and fly balls take off like 737s, so the Rockies have shifted gears once again, dumping high-priced Mike Hampton and rebuilding with resilient rookies and journeymen accustomed to 45-minute, five-run innings.

Endgame: Lots of runs, not many wins, and the Rocks finish last.

the bulldog

Curt Schilling pitcher/Arizona Diamondbacks

Playboy: The Diamondbacks went from winning the World Series to getting swept in the first round. Why?

Schilling: It's a state of mind. We went into the postseason with apprehension due to injuries. That manifested due to injuries. That manifested itself as a three-game sweep.

Playboy: What do you think of the hitting explosion?

Schilling: The owners thought they would dumb down the game. They thought fans wanted offense. But fans want to see good baseball. If that's a 6--5 game, so be it. But I've never heard of a fan who enjoyed a four-hour, 9--7 game with 12 walks and six homers.

Playboy: Who are the best young pitchers in the league?

Schilling: Fans are being treated to the best influx of pitching in 20 years. The Florida staff. Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller in Houston. Mark Prior and Kerry Wood in Chicago. They're all power guys.

Playboy: What reaction did you get to your comments about steroids?

Schilling: I was flying blind when I said 50 percent of the players used them. I've no idea what the percentage is. But you can look at my body and tell I'm not one of them.

Playboy: Is baseball in trouble?

Schilling: Owners pay salaries they can afford to pay. But they've led fans to believe that they're taking a hit. That's a bunch of crap.

Playboy: You own a company that sells war board games. Do you ever play with your teammates?

Schilling: That's way too geeky.

Playboy: Does Patton ever get his ass kicked by the panzers?

Schilling: That's not realistic.