For many across America, Christmas week actually comes in early September. After a cruel summer, we have finally arrived at the NFL regular season opener. To dial up the intensity, we’ll commence with an AFC Championship Game rematch: Chiefs vs. Ravens. That means superstars like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Travis Kelce and Derrick Henry will share the spotlight.
As of Wednesday, we’ve already sifted through social media to bring you the most popular plays for Thursday Night Football. Still, when it comes to the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens, there are plenty of profitable player props out there.
With kickoff looming closely (8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday), let’s survey the best prop bets for the NFL regular season opener.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Game lines may shift upon publication.
Chiefs vs. Ravens Prop Bets
Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions (-135)
For a non-quarterback, perhaps no player has a higher stock than Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. Not only is he fresh off winning his third Super Bowl, but his romance with pop star Taylor Swift appears to be going swimmingly.
Kelce is opening the upcoming season against Baltimore, which is a franchise he has frequently performed well against. In last year’s AFC title bid, the Cincinnati alum hauled in 11 catches for 116 yards. Additionally, he lit up the Ravens for seven receptions and 109 yards in a 2021 regular season contest. As for 2020, he grabbed six of seven targets Week 3 at Baltimore.
The 6’5 tight end compiled more than five catches in 63.2% (12 of 19) of his games played last season. From there, Kelce was targeted 120 times in 2023; he brought down 93 catches (77.5%) from that crop.
Admittedly, Baltimore has a fierce defensive backfield. However, All-Pro linebacker Patrick Queen departed for the rival Pittsburgh Steelers over the offseason. I imagine Kelce has no issues at all about Queen’s relocation. I like Kelce to go over 5.5 receptions this Thursday evening.
Derrick Henry Over 7.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
The Ravens’ most notable offseason pickup is 2015 Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry.
The 6’3, 245-pound tailback is a generational bruiser. With that said, 2024 will be Henry’s first NFL campaign away from the Tennessee Titans. He goes to another run-oriented team in “The Flock.” Baltimore led all 32 franchises last year with 2,661 team rushing yards.
With opposing defenses having to scheme against the Ravens’ dynamic rushing attack, we could see Henry have success in the passing game as well. Jackson’s athleticism at quarterback often leads to extended and broken plays. In those instances, Henry can take a single catch over his 7.5-yard receiving prop.
“King” Henry has averaged 7.2 yards per target with a 76.7% catch rate throughout eight seasons in the NFL. Going against his set receiving total for TNF, those are reliable figures. Also, he’s accumulated 12.3 receiving yards per game throughout 119 career contests. In relation to the latter statistic, he had that number as high as 24.9 yards per game in 2022.
Lamar Jackson Over 31.5 Passing Attempts (-120)
Combining Lamar Jackson with Derrick Henry pits together the 2015 and 2016 Heisman winners, respectively. That leaves much to be accounted for in the run game, but in a bid against the reigning champion Chiefs, K.C. defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will be sure to make Jackson use his arm.
Make no mistake, Jackson is fresh off his second NFL MVP award for a reason. His play, off-field style, confidence and charisma earned him a spot on Playboy’s “5 Buzziest Quarterbacks Entering 2024-25” list. Still, his most daunting task has been taking down Kansas City. Jackson is 1-4 lifetime versus Chiefs Kingdom.
In the most recent AFC championship against K.C., “Action” Jackson committed 37 pass attempts, which easily clears Thursday’s set total of 31.5. If Baltimore once again falls into a negative script before halftime, they’ll be forced to expand the field through the air (again, see last year’s conference title game).
DraftKings number of 31.5 pass attempts makes sense for Jackson in this spot, as he’s averaged 31.6 pass attempts in five meetings with Kansas City.
Additionally, the weather forecast shows clear conditions in the 70s at kickoff, which is as pleasant as Arrowhead Stadium ever gets. Jackson will have every opportunity to whip the ball around to a stronger offensive skill group. The Chiefs may even dare him to do it. Between Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor, the Ravens’ receiving corps has talent and experience.
Editor’s note: The advice provided by the author does not represent the views of Playboy. Taking any advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. Always use your own judgment when participating in sports betting. Still, for daily bettors, the best insight anyone ever gave me was to stay away from parlays.