Now that we have our feet wet, the 2024 NFL campaign is officially off to the races. Naturally, each weekly installment starts with Thursday Night Football. For Week 2, we’ll see an AFC East affair in the form of Dolphins vs. Bills. Incidentally, what does the betting landscape look like here?
What To Watch For
Kickoff from Hard Rock Stadium is set for Thursday, September 12 at 8:15 p.m. ET. Amazon Prime Video is the exclusive broadcaster for TNF.
This marquee tilt from Miami Gardens will feature two familiar foes. As divisional rivals, we’ve seen Dolphins vs. Bills on five separate occasions over the past two seasons. Throughout that recent span, Buffalo has gone 4-1 against the Fins (including one head-to-head playoff win).
Miami is coming off a comeback victory versus the Jacksonville Jaguars last week.
Powered by a stingy defense, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, receiver Tyreek Hill and kicker Jason Sanders, the Dolphins rallied for a walk-off win in Week 1. They shut out Jacksonville through the second half. From there, Miami’s offense was able to capitalize just enough to ultimately get the job done.
Buffalo also required a comeback effort in their 2024 opener.
Last Sunday, the Bills hosted the Arizona Cardinals only to fall behind early. Buffalo trailed 17-3 at the first half’s two-minute warning. At that point, quarterback Josh Allen kicked it into high gear. Allen moved the offense down field efficiently, eventually rushing for a seven-yard touchdown prior to halftime. He added another score with his legs in the final quarter, contributing to a 24-point second half for Bills Mafia.
Buffalo has won the AFC East in each of the past four football seasons. Of late, the Fins — who show as the AFC East betting favorites entering Week 2 — have presented the most formidable challenge to the Bills’ current streak. However, Miami has earned no divisional titles throughout the last 15 years; they can largely thank Tom Brady and the New England Patriots for that.
Ahead of kickoff on Thursday night, let’s dive into the betting lines for Dolphins vs. Bills.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Updated Thursday, Sep. 12 at 2:15 p.m. ET. Game lines may shift upon publication.
Dolphins vs. Bills Betting
Spread
On Wednesday afternoon, DraftKings had Miami as a 2.5-point home favorite against the Bills. Despite failing to cover last week versus Jacksonville, the Dolphins went 10-8 against the spread (ATS) in 2023.
In the previous campaign, Buffalo was one of the poorer cover teams across the NFL. In 19 total games last year, the Bills produced an 8-11 ATS record. Like Miami, they did not cover in their regular season opener last Sunday.
Total
This contest features two prolific offenses and the combined total is set at 48.5 points for Thursday’s game. It should be noted that the total has fallen from a 51-point mark last weekend, which indicates heavier betting support for the under.
A year ago, the Dolphins were the NFL’s second-highest scoring team at 29.2 PPG. Be that as it may, they went an even 9-9 in the totals market.
As for Bills Mafia (26.5 PPG in 2023), they were more favorable toward under bettors, cashing the over in only eight of their 19 games played. With that said, Buffalo’s new-look offense rolled over Arizona for 34 points and 352 total yards in the most recent outing.
Moneyline
For NFL Week 2, the Bills are a +120 underdog on the moneyline. Those specific odds present a 45.5% implied probability. Conversely, Miami is priced with -135 moneyline odds, which implies a 58.7% winning probability.
Over at ESPN Analytics, this primetime divisional romp is much tighter. Over there, Buffalo yields a 51.6% chance at victory.
NFL Week 2 Primetime Schedule
It’s never too early to look ahead to this week’s remaining marquee NFL games …
Thursday, Sep. 12, 8:15 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
Total: 48.5
Sunday, Sep. 15, 8:20 p.m. ET: Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (-6.5)
Total: 45.5
Monday, Sep. 16, 8:15 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
Total: 47
Editor’s note: The advice provided by the author does not represent the views of Playboy. Taking any advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. Always use your own judgment when participating in sports betting. Still, for daily bettors, the best insight anyone ever gave me was to stay away from parlays.