Legal or not, betting on the presidential winner and other political outcomes is one of America’s oldest pastimes. But arriving just in time for the 2024 election cycle, you can now officially place legal wagers in the United States on which candidate you think will prevail. If you have a hunch on vice president Kamala Harris vs. former president Donald Trump, you can now put your money where your mouth is in lieu of hassling with shady and unregulated operators.
Kalshi Inc. — a U.S.-based financial exchange and prediction market — offers legal online betting for political races and more. Their site reads as a catalog of total-style (over/under) markets on topics such as, “How many launches will SpaceX have this year?” or “Highest temperature in Chicago today?”
Previously, users looking for these sorts of bets were forced to use offshore options in Polymarket or Predictit. (For the record, Polymarket has already received a $1.2 billion handle on whether Harris or Trump will take the Oval Office.)
As reported by Intelligencer, a recent court ruling in favor of Kalshi over the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has opened the floodgates to legal wagering on political outcomes. This decision was announced on October 2, just 33 days prior to Election Day.
Mind you, you could still bet NFL football if you wanted. (Tonight Baker Mayfield‘s Tampa Bay Buccaneers will take on Kirk Cousins‘ Atlanta Falcons, and sports bettor Jo Madden definitely has a side in this one.) But where’s the variety in that?
Legal Election Betting Risks
Just like with sports and athletics, betting on political outcomes introduces myriad potential risks.
Betting odds are majorly reliant on the amount of action on which they receive in one direction or the other. Basically, if an extremely wealthy individual wanted to manipulate public perception toward their preferred candidate, they could place a whale-sized wager to create temporary line movement. Users online could then interpret this movement as, “Wow, XYZ candidate is really coming on strong in the election.” (Yeah Elon, we’re looking at you.)
Conversely, a legally regulated betting market on major elections can offer some interesting insights. In a way, taking bets on something is not so different from a public poll. Right now, there are no more presidential debates scheduled for 2024, but following the money after a specific forum or question could be a more authentic indicator of the debate’s winner. After all, one tends to be a little less biased when supporting with their own dollar.
Just like with sports betting, wagering on political elections will be a burgeoning industry with no clear end in sight. The federal government is still adjusting to how to properly regulate the many approaches to placing online bets. Undoubtedly, the next few years will be filled with trial-and-error for this sector.
With November 5 fast approaching, play close attention to how these markets correlate to trends around Harris vs. Trump. Please ensure that you are registered to vote!