We have officially reached the dog days of summer, and incidentally, the home stretch of MLB season. By now, I have a general idea of which bets I like along with those I prefer to stay away from.
With each team playing 162 regular season games per year, Wednesdays are often viewed as the marquee night for baseball betting action. But why is that?
The middle of the workweek is when we typically see the same teams matching up for a third consecutive bid, giving us as sports bettors two prior days of very relevant data to utilize. Still, Thursdays are not always fitting for this, being that ball clubs often start games early (think noon or 1 p.m. ET) if they don’t have that day off entirely.
So, on Wednesdays over summer, my attention dwells on the baseball diamond. Transparently, I went two-for-three last week, which included a plus-money runline win on the Washington Nationals.
Here are my three best MLB bets for August 28, 2024.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Game lines may shift upon publication.
Tampa Bay Rays-Seattle Mariners Under 7.0 Runs (-118)
When it comes to the Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners, neither squad is having a desirable season.
Both clubs are looking up at more talented teams in their respective divisional standings. Also, the M’s are a week removed from firing long-tenured manager Scott Servais—Dan Wilson has taken over as the 21st skipper in franchise history.
Over the past two days in the Pacific Northwest, the Mariners and Rays have combined for an average of just 5.5 runs per game. In five head-to-head meetings in 2024 between these sides, we have seen less than seven total runs on four occasions.
For Wednesday, the projected starters on the mound are Luis Castillo and Drew Rasmussen (opener role). Keep in mind: game time in Seattle is slated for 4:10 p.m. ET.
Castillo has remained strong in this season behind a 3.72 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), which is an ERA varietal statistic that attempts to eliminate factors the pitcher cannot account for. Also, it is weighted on the type of contact allowed by the pitcher—ground balls, flys balls, line drives, pop ups etc.
Using that same metric, Rasmussen shows a sharp 2.54 SIERA despite throwing only 10.0 innings this season. However, the Tampa hurler did not resume action until early August after undergoing an elbow procedure.
According to Baseball Savant, SoDo’s T-Mobile Park is the most pitcher friendly venue that MLB has to offer. When I remember that the under is converting frequently for both of these teams — 53.6% for Seattle; 53.5% for Tampa Bay — right now, under 7.0 runs feels like the wisest wager here.
San Diego Padres Moneyline (-125)
Transitioning over to the Senior Circuit, let’s head out to Busch Stadium III for a clash between the San Diego Padres and St. Louis Cardinals.
Genuinely, the Padres are amongst the hottest teams in MLB. San Diego is riding a three-game heater, winning each of the past two evenings in “The Lou.” Further out, the Friars are 17-7 in August and 30-16 since the start of July.
An organization with high standards, the Cardinals are experiencing their second consecutive frustrating season. Thanks in large part to San Diego, the Red Birds currently sit two games under .500. Mostly, St. Louis’ offensive struggles have fueled their demise—the Cards’ .142 ISO falls within the National League’s bottom five.
Wednesday’s tilt at New Busch is set for 7:45 p.m. ET. The pitching matchup features fellow righties Joe Musgrove (3.99 SIERA) and Andre Pallante (4.08 SIERA). Musgrove and Pallante have done well to avoid solid contact from hitters in 2024. According to Statcast, both are yielding a hard-hit rate under 40%.
With respect to both batting lineups, the Padres (.744 team OPS) have the more formidable roster. Even with Fernando Tatis Jr. out with a leg injury, San Diego is flush with dangerous hitters. Players like Manny Machado, Jurickson Profar, Jackson Merrill, Luis Arraez and Jake Cronenworth make for a daunting challenge for any pitcher.
DraftKings lists the Padres as a short favorite for Wednesday’s game in St. Louie. Given recent results, I view San Diego’s -125 moneyline odds advantageously.
Baltimore Orioles-Los Angeles Dodgers Over 8.5 Runs (-118)
The marquee matchup around MLB this week is undoubtedly the Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Dodgers.
As a potential World Series preview, this Wednesday’s meeting at Chavez Ravine should be quite fun from a betting perspective.
Corbin Burnes and Walker Buehler are slated as the starting arms. Naturally, this will be baseball’s nightcap with first pitch in California expected at 10:10 p.m. ET.
Buehler is making just his third appearance for Los Angeles since June 18. Overall, he’s not been himself since returning from surgery. Buehler has been tagged for 34 runs throughout 44.1 innings pitched this year. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s Burnes has been efficient behind a 1.13 WHIP.
It is no secret that both lineups on hand can hammer the baseball. In 2024, the Orioles have cashed the over in 58.1% of their 133 games played, which is presently the best conversion rate in Major League Baseball. Across the way, the Dodgers boast a .764 team OPS—good for second-highest on the Senior Circuit.
8.5 is one of the loftier MLB totals on DraftKings‘ betting board but I believe these respective lineups can produce nine or more runs on Wednesday.
Shohei Ohtani is on an offensive tear while Mookie Betts has seamlessly returned from a wrist injury. For the O’s, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santandar are having stellar campaigns at the plate. Simply, Baltimore is averaging 4.97 runs per game in 2024 while LA is at 4.92 runs per game.
Editor’s note: The advice provided by the author does not represent the views of Playboy. Taking any advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. Always use your own judgement when participating in sports betting. Still, for daily bettors, the best insight anyone ever gave me was to stay away from parlays.