When it pertains to the 2024 election cycle, we have officially reached deep water. November 5 is less than 14 days away, and soon enough, we’ll have our next president of the United States. To spice things up, Kalshi Inc. has offered legal betting in the U.S. on the upcoming presidency for the past few weeks.
What Is Kalshi?
Kalshi is a financial exchange and predictive market founded in 2018. However, the digital operator received legal clearance to offer political betting markets domestically earlier this month after a federal ruling in Washington, D.C.
Since then, Kalshi — which, unlike Bovada and Polymarket, is based and regulated in the United States — has received a significant wagering handle on who wins the 2024 presidential election. On Wednesday, that total figure is just over $52.7 million. But is more money coming in on former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris?
Harris vs. Trump
Upon opening on October 4, the presidential market at Kalshi saw back-and-forth action for the first week or so. Since then, Trump has gradually received more support here, as he now yields a 60% winning likelihood (equivalent to a -150 moneyline) at Kalshi. That is up considerably from 49% on October 9.
Of course, Kalshi’s markets and predictions are not are not completely authentic for finding the pulse of an election. As something to keep in mind, betting markets are indicative of the amount of money one side takes in compared to the other. Despite what Elon Musk tells you, this differs drastically from the United States’ polling procedures, wherein each individual gets only one vote with no ability to buy more. From there, the Electoral College — or earning 270 electoral votes — always adds a wrinkle to the system.
Winning the Swing states is key to any presidential election. Interestingly, Kalshi reflects a tight battle between Harris and Trump in Wisconsin as well as Michigan, where Trump is narrowly ahead in both.
Is Kalshi Legit?
Kalshi is legit, but that does not mean they are some oracle/predictor of the future.
As alluded to, betting markets cannot be blindly trusted, otherwise where would the word “upset” come from? Also, it’s important to remember that an individual cannot vote 10,000 times while they can very easily place a $10,000 wager. Within their respective systems, that $10,000 bet would carry more weight than a single vote would, especially once you factor in the mechanics of the Electoral College.
It is also vital to understand the major players behind Kalshi. Jeff Yass, who is co-founder of the trading firm Susquehanna International Group, is one of Kalshi’s more prominent investors. As a Republican mega donor, Yass also has a prior relationship with Trump. After all, “politics are gonna politic.”
With November 5 fast approaching, pay close attention to how these markets correlate to trends around Harris vs. Trump. Please ensure that you are registered to vote!