We have officially reached the dog days of summer, and incidentally, the home stretch of MLB season.
With each team playing 162 regular season games per year, Wednesdays are often viewed as the marquee night for baseball betting action. But why is that?
The middle of the week is when we typically see the same teams matching up for a third consecutive bid, giving us as sports bettors two prior days of very relevant data to utilize. Still, Thursdays are not always fitting for this, being that ball clubs often start games early (think noon or 1 p.m. ET) if they don’t have that day off entirely.
So, on Wednesdays over summer, my attention dwells on the baseball diamond. Here are my three best MLB bets for August 21st, 2024.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Game lines may shift upon publication.
Washington Nationals -1.5 (+130)
If you caught Playboy’s feature on sports betting influencer Amanda Vance last week, you should know by now that the Washington Nationals have been one of MLB’s top cover teams in 2024.
To this point, Washington has played to just a 56-70 record straight up, but when it pertains to run lines, the Nats have excelled to 69-57 results against the spread (ATS). Simply, the squad from the nation’s capital is covering in 54.8% games right now, which leaves them in the 83rd percentile of Major League Baseball.
On Wednesday, the Nats are hosting the struggling Colorado Rockies. The probable pitchers here are rookie Tanner Gordon (COL) and lefty Mitchell Parker (WSH) with first pitch set for 6:45 p.m. ET.
Throughout only 27 innings pitched in 2024, Gordon has had a pretty rough go of it by allowing a 7.00 ERA — he’s also been tagged with an 0-4 record. Parker has been so-so for Washington this year, but the Rockies are not faring well against southpaw pitching. Over 1,355 total plate appearances versus lefties, the Rockies hold a weak .699 team OPS.
I like this pitching matchup enough to wager on the home side winning by two or more runs this evening at Nationals Park. Additionally, the Rox have been one of the most popular teams to bet against this season. After 126 games played, Colorado holds the second-worst average margin-of-victory in MLB (-1.5 runs). With that, I am confident the Nats will cover on Wednesday. At lucrative +130 odds, let’s take that chance.
Kansas City Royals Moneyline (-175)
Flipping over to the American League, I have my eye on a clash of veteran right-handers at Kauffman Stadium. With the Kansas City Royals hosting the Los Angeles Angels in a rubber match at 8:10 p.m. ET, I see the home side in a favorable spot.
Michael Lorenzen will start on the hill for Kansas City while Johnny Cueto is scheduled to go for the Halos. Notably, this will be Cueto’s debut for the Angels, as he has not pitched in a MLB contest since September 27, 2023 — I can’t say that I love that for him when going against a slugging squad from K.C.
Undoubtedly, the Royals have been a top story of the 2024 campaign. Despite a 56-106 record last year, Kansas City has surged 70-56 results currently. Led by stars Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez, they have a harmonious blend of youth and experience. Also, it doesn’t hurt that they have smashed the baseball for a .734 team OPS (sixth-best in the American League).
Taking away any spread, I like Kansas City to win outright in front of their home crowd. DraftKings Sportsbook lists this market with -175 odds, so this will be my safe play of the night.
Overall, the Crowns have dazzled to a 39-25 record at home in 2024. Across the way, Los Angeles is 27-32 on the road. Of course, the Angels are going forward without superstar Mike Trout for the remainder of the season.
I like K.C. here and so does ESPN Analytics, which gives the Royals a 71.1% chance at victory. When comparing that figure to the set -175 odds (carrying a 63.6% implied probability), we see authentic betting value on the Royals.
Seattle Mariners-Los Angeles Dodgers Under 7.5 Runs (-118)
For a baseball nightcap, we’ll head out to Hollywood. First pitch between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Seattle Mariners is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. With the way the past two nights have gone at Dodger Stadium, I am keen on betting the under for this interleague contest.
Los Angeles has defeated Seattle in each of the past two nights. Throughout that span, the two clubs have combined for an average of only 6.0 runs per game. Naturally, Chavez Ravine does not always make for the best hitting environment during night games. Swirling winds gust up the hill from nearby Elysian Park often keep prospective homers from leaving the yard.
We’ll see two quality starting pitchers in Los Angeles on Wednesday. Jack Flaherty has been lights out since joining the Dodgers earlier in August. Upon being traded from the Detroit Tigers, he has compiled a 3.78 ERA and 24 strikeouts in three starts for his hometown team.
Across the way, Seattle gives the nod to veteran hurler Logan Gilbert. Despite his lack of run support, Gilbert has been incredibly stingy this year, boasting a sharp 0.88 WHIP. Simply, given the arms and the atmosphere, I am banking of less than eight total runs scored between these sides.
Notably, the Mariners have been a darling for under bettors in 2024. On the season, the under has hit in 54.2% of Seattle’s 127 games played — that is the fifth-best rate in Major League Baseball.
Editor’s note: The advice provided by the author does not represent the views of Playboy. Taking any advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. Always use your own judgement when participating in sports betting. Still, for daily bettors, the best insight anyone ever gave me was to stay away from parlays.